We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko & Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

Among the onlookers, you’ll often find them.  Observing.  Admiring.  Reliving.  Perpetrators of nefarious deeds often return to the locations of their greatest masterpieces, their Sistine Chapels, Last Suppers.  Canvases bordered haphazardly with yellow tape, each extremity providing unique intriguing angles, beguiling inflections of light from genius points of view.

Grief, pain, sadness; there’s plenty in the air for these energy vampires to feast upon, while motivation cultivates seeds of even grander works.  Can’t stop.  Won’t stop.  Insomniacs; no rest for the wicked.

Authority awaits.  Looking.  Watching.  Documenting.  Because among the onlookers, you’ll often find them. Usually standing in the vicinity of the fiercest mourners.  In this show, the extras are the stars, drawing the camera’s attention like Hollywood’s A-list.  

But, they know all the tricks, the perpetrators.  A picture isn’t worth a thousand words without motives, methods, suspects, and random acts rarely provide those.  So without fear, they dine by moonlight, the occupiers of the best seats in the house.   

This weekend, I return to the scene of one of my greatest crimes, the Octagon, where I picked Chris Daukaus to beat Derrick Lewis via TKO in December of 2021.  I’ve gotten fat off the misery caused, gorged on the suffering inflicted.  My only solace, the Twenty-Twen-Twen I dropped on the Black Beast, my only appeasement.  Only time will tell if picking Alexander Volkov to beat Tom Aspinall last weekend is an even greater travesty.  One can only hope. 

Main Card

Curtis Blaydes (-380) vs Chris Daukaus (+290)

Blaydes: DK: $ 9.2k | Daukaus: DK:$7k

So what happened to Chris Daukaus against Derrick Lewis?  The Black Beast was too much, too soon for Daukaus.  Having only four bouts in the UFC since his debut in August of 2020, Daukaus simply wasn’t ready for that level of… everything; skill, power, speed, but most of all, experience.  It was evident in Daukaus’ tentative approach and the thousand-yard-stare-look in his eyes every time a Derrick Lewis haymaker whizzed by his head.

Good News/Bad News: The good news is, Daukaus has a chance to Lloyd Christmas totally redeem himself on Saturday night.  The bad news is, he could once again be taking on too much, too soon.  Curtis Blaydes is a seasoned specialist who has faced the highest level of competition since early on in his career.  Fourteen of Blaydes’ nointeen career fights have taken place under the UFC banner.  His UFC debut was against Francis Ngannou and was just his sixth career fight.  There are much more logical matchups for Daukaus at this early stage in his UFC career, especially for a man who just quit his day job and could be facing two straight L’s after starting 4-0.    

I say all that to say this: Daukaus is the definition of a sleeper.  If you bumped into him at Lowes while he was sampling the bidets on the sales floor, you’d likely bump your gums, telling him to take that shit (literally) elsewhere, maybe a bathroom.  But you’d wake up in the fetal position in front of the gates of Valhalla quicker than if you attempted a D.U.S.T. tactic to disarm a man holding a gun to your head.  You’ve seen better physiques than Chris Daukaus’s at McDonald’s on Thanksgiving.  You’ve seen better athletes larping at Comic-Con.  But don’t let any of that fool you; the Philly native will crack your ass like the Liberty Bell.

Daukaus has deceptive hand speed and footwork and works his way into the pocket behind his jab.  He is almost exclusively a boxer wearing four-ounce gloves, but he throws short, quick combinations and his hooks thumb-down.  A thumb-down hook allows him to land with his first two knuckles around the opponent's guard.  They’re whipping strikes that cut and create a lot of damage and can’t be defended with a traditional shelled-up hand guard.

Daukaus uses his hand speed to counter with three to four-punch combinations that he times to throw at the same time as the opponent.  He’s a high-output combination striker and leaves little dead air between engagements, and other than the Lewis fight, he usually leads the dance, on some Makaveli track one, Bomb First type ish.   But the question is Daukaus’ ground game.

We know nothing about it.  Chris’ brother, Kyle, a middleweight, has excellent grappling, but we haven’t seen Chris’s.  We haven’t even seen Chris defend a takedown at this point, and he’ll be facing a man with the most takedowns (14) in a single fight in UFC heavyweight history.  Can Daukaus stay on his feet?  Can he get back to his feet?  How will his cardio hold up?  IDK.  I do know this, though: Chris Daukaus is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, and although all black belts aren’t created equal, it gives hope that Daukaus can survive on the mat with Blaydes on top of him.  Blaydes’ biggest detraction as a grappler is his lack of submissions.

Curtis Blaydes is a solid fighter with an excellent record, but his style for most people is like dying in their sleep, they don’t feel it.  He has KO power in his right hand and has ten KO’s on his record, but he perpetuates wrestling-heavy game plans that don’t always result in fan-friendly action.  It’s a winning formula that I can’t argue with; “You play to win the game,” said Herm Edwards, and he was right.

The winning game plan for Blaydes against anyone he faces is to stand only for as long as is necessary to shoot a double leg and secure a takedown.  Two fights ago, Blaydes dominated Derrick Lewis on the feet in the opening round but got lazy in the second.  His strikes became repetitive and predictable, and he attempted a lazy takedown, bending over at the waist without the cover of distracting punches, and Lewis tucked him into bed with a counter uppercut.  Blaydes broke into a W factory under the cover of night and managed to steal an L.

Curtis Blaydes’ path to victory is like if the Oregon Trail had been paved and the wooden wagons had been replaced with RVs. 

            Takedowns

            Takedowns

            Takedowns

Takedowns on top of takedowns.  Rinse and repeat.  Test Daukaus’s cardio and overall MMA skillset, and no matter what, never resign to a five-round boxing match.  Daukaus is a massive (+245) underdog and is hovering around the magical Jacksons-to-Grants betting range.  His value will be in an early finish and overwhelming Blaydes with speed and combinations should Blaydes fail to relocate the fight as soon as the first bell sounds.  

Here I am, at a familiar place.  From behind the yellow tape I see an iPhone pointed in my direction.  But I’m just a curious lookie-loo, nothing more.  After a stumble last week, the main event-winning streak is no longer, and I have to play this one straight up.  Curtis Blaydes via TKO, round three.  I’ve gone back and forth on this one for a week; I just don’t trust Curtis Blaydes.  Chris Daukaus, TKO round three.

Winner: Chris Daukaus | Method: TKO Rd.3

Joanne Wood (+190) vs. Alexa Grasso (-240)

Wood: DK: $7.2k | Grasso: DK: $9k

This is a showcase for Alexa Grasso.  With Taila Santos earning the next shot at the best women’s fighter in MMA, Valentina Shevchenko, a win for Grasso could give her dibs on the winner. Grasso has some of the best pure boxing in the women’s divisions and has faced elite competition.

Alexa Grasso has tight, technical boxing with straight, crisp punches and subtle footwork that she uses to set up angles.  She remains defensively responsible, always keeping her hands tight to her face while using her jab to manage range and set up short combinations.  In the first round of every fight, Grasso is a kickboxer, mixing in round kicks behind hand combinations.  She’s especially dangerous when she uses her kicks, but after the first round, she usually forgets about them and becomes one-dimensional, all hands. 

Beyond this fight, the questions about Grasso’s all-around skills will still remain.  She has only lost to elite grapplers/wrestlers: Carla Esparza, Tatiana Suarez, and Felice Herrig.  Shevchenko’s wrestling/grappling is on par with her striking and will be Grasso’s biggest hurdle should she earn a title shot. 

Like the Dallas Cowboys, Joanne Wood’s window of opportunity to compete for a championship is closed, sectioned off, and likely to be remodeled into a wall.  Joanne is the MMA Tony Romo, most known for folding under pressure.  Every big fight she has had in her twenty-two-fight career, she lost.  With a title shot on the line against Jennifer Maia, Wood fumbled the snap on what would’ve been a game-winning chip shot field goal.  She had a shot at running the ball into the endzone after recovering the fumble but began running in quicksand and was brought down from behind at the one-yard line

Joanne Wood is a high output combination striker who wins fights by outworking her opponents.  She has nifty spinning attacks and tight, technical kickboxing, but she lacks physical power and has trouble gaining her high-level opponents’ respect.  She throws dainty little punches and lead-leg snap kicks, and that’s pretty much her full arsenal.  

I don’t see anywhere Wood can win this fight.  Grasso is just a better fighter with a more dangerous stand-up. Wood can try to fight in a phone booth, initiate the clinch, and make this an ugly close-quarters fight while looking for trip takedowns.  She’ll have to do something other than kickboxing with Grasso for fifteen minutes. 

Grasso will have to navigate through a corn maze blindfolded on some Bird Box-type ish to find an L in this one.  But there is this: every time I completely write off someone in flowing medieval script, they make me eat my words, Michelin five-course meals.  Just ask Juliana Peña.  Alexa Grasso via decision.  On wax.

Winner: Alexa Grasso | Method: Decision

Bryan Barberena (-110) vs. Matt Brown (-110)

Barberena: DK: $8k | Brown: DK: $8.2k

This is an absolute dogfight and would be the main event for the inaugural Michael Vick FC fight promotion. Combined, they have over forty fights in the UFC and have faced the stiffest competition in the Welterweight division.  Matt Brown was on The Ultimate Fighter Season seven back in 2008 and became known for going postal after one of the housemates put lemon juice in his chewing tobacco.  Matt Brown got his retribution by smashing the offender inside the Octagon, making it known to the world to never ever mess with a man’s snus.

Matt Brown’s identity is violence, and his modus operandi during his brutal assaults is bludgeoning, blunt force trauma caused by every one of his extremities.  The Thais consider knees and elbows limbs, creating eight limbs to strike with, and Brown is proficient with all of them and is especially deadly with standing elbows while in clinch range.  If he could use head-butts, Matt Brown would have the most head-butt KO’s in UFC history.

Brown breaks opponents with pressure, nonstop forward movement behind heavy traditional above-the-knee leg kicks, and battering hand combinations.  His most effective trait is that he mixes his attack ranges, closing the distance behind heavy power strikes and using the clinch to land knees and elbows.  The only question for Brown this late in his career is his diminishing physical attributes like hand speed and the durability of his chin.

Bryan Barberena is a grimy little southpaw who has fought to a decision against Colby Covington and Leon Edwards.  He was also seconds away from beating Vicente Luque in a three-round war but was caught by a knee and finished inside the last ten seconds.  Barberena has mastered the inside calf kick to orthodox opponents.  You don’t see the inside calf kick often because the likelihood of landing shin-to-shin is higher than an outside calf kick.  But Barberena attacks the lead leg allowing him to open up with his short hooks and overhands.

Barberena’s downfall has always been his willingness to wade into the pocket with zero point zero regards for defense.  He’s a volunteer firefighter in the pocket, slowly wearing down opponents with sneaky slick counters and a willingness to engage for the entire fifteen minutes.  He’s coming off a decision win against the tough Darian Weeks after Weeks accepted the fight on short notice.

Flip a coin, count dandelion petals, consult your Magic 8 Ball; this one is a complete toss-up.  The odds are a (-110) pick ‘em, and your guess is as good as mine who wins this one.  I’ll give the edge in speed and output to Barberena; he also has slightly less mileage on his chin.  Bryan Barberena via decision.

Winner: Bryan Barberena | Method: Decision

Askar Askarov (-350) vs. Kai Kara-France (+270)

Askarov: DK: $9.1k | Kara-France: DK: $7.1k

Before UFC 269, I wrote this about Kai Kara France before his bout against Cody Garbrandt: “The question for Kai Kara-France is, is he ready to ditch the Bluey nightlight and venture into the darkness?  Is he ready to confront the seedy, disturbing under belly of society where Cody Grabrandt dwells and is likely to drag him?”

Technically those questions still remain.  The fight turned out to be a Macy’s Thanksgiving Day parade stroll with pageant waves to the crowd in all directions for Kai Kara-France as he walked through Garbrandt.  There’s little doubt that a win against the super grappler Askar Askarov will answer those questions in their entirety and put Kara-France in a position for a title eliminator/title fight.

Picture a smaller action figure version of Alexander Volkanovski with a right hand power action button on the back, and you have Kai Kara-France.  He’s a technical kickboxer with a boxer’s jab that he uses to set up most of his offense.  Kai combines perpetual lateral movement, switch-step footwork, and short combination striking to outwork his opponent from the outside.  Defensively, Kara-France is sound and doesn’t leave himself vulnerable unless he extends combinations recklessly in the pocket.  The key for Kara-France will be keeping the fight standing by not getting trapped along the cage.

Askar Askarov, not to be confused with Askar Askar, is an undefeated fighter with a 14-0 career record.  He’s 3-0-1 in the UFC with notable wins over Joseph Benevidez, Alexander Pantoja, and Tim Elliott.  His lone draw was to the former champ, Brandon Moreno, who has a win over Kai Kara-France.  Much like Kara-France, a potential title shot is on the line for Askarov, who has unfinished business against Moreno and all the skills to beat Deiveson Figueiredo after the two fight for a fourth time this summer.

Askarov has a superpower; he’s deaf.  Let me explain.  Life is about turning negatives into positives, lemons into a moist lemon cake with cream cheese drizzle.  Askar chooses to fight in silence, completely unaffected by his surroundings.  He’s Kevin Holland’s kryptonite.  In the middle of a category five hurricane, Askar Askarov operates from the eye of the storm, in total serenity.

On the feet, Askarov has sleeper kickboxing and is a right-handed southpaw, using his lead side strikes to attack.  Like Umar Nurmagomedov, Askarov has a nasty stabbing right leg teep, and when he switches to the orthodox stance, a heavy round kick. His right hand from either stance can change the tide of a fight, but his bread and butter, his toast and jam is his wrestling.

Askar uses leg rides against the cage with far side wrist control, leaving a free hand to deliver heavy ground and pound.  He has a myriad of ways to relocate the fight, and once he gains top position, it’s hard to get back to your feet.  Askarov has seven wins via submissions, including a twister submission, an armbar, and several chokes.  Overall, he has finished eleven of his fourteen wins.

Kara-France can’t compete with Askarov on the mat; he has to keep the fight standing, using his speed from the outside to attack with short, quick combinations.  The difference in the levels of their ground games is why Kara-France is entering as the (+230) underdog.  If he can keep this standing, he can win the fight with a higher output than Askarov, but I don’t see him staying on his feet for fifteen minutes.  Askar Askarov via rear-naked choke, round three.

Winner: Askar Askarov  | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Ilir Latifi (-190) vs Aleksei Oleinik(+160)

Latifi: DK: $8.6k | Oleinik: DK:$7.6k

Ilir Latifi is a Miley Cyrus wrecking ball, and Olexy Oleynik has more ways to spell his name than he has wins in his last three fights.  Both fighters are wrestling/grappling specialists with striking on par with the view level in Ball Arena.

Aleksei Oleinik is the epitome of a one-trick pony.  That trick is the Ezekiel Choke.   The Ezekiel is a rare choke, using one forearm across the throat while the other arm goes behind the head.  With the hand threading behind the head, you reach around and grab the forearm of the arm across the throat.  You then sink the blade of your arm into the throat to finish it.  Google it; I did my best.  Oleinik has fourteen career Ezekiel Choke submissions; that’s more wins by Ezekiel than most fighters will ever have in career wins.  It’s a specialized choke, and Oleinik can finish it from the top and even while being mounted.  Think about that.

Oleinik looks like an old James Bond villain and has some of the gaudiest career stats that you’ll ever see.  Oleinik has over seventy MMA bouts, including fifteen in the UFC with an 8-7 record.  He’s riding a three-fight losing streak, and his last four losses have all come via KO/TKO.  But check it; he has fifty-noine career wins and has finished all but five of them.  That’s fifty-four finishes for all of you using your hands to count.

Unfortunately for Oleinik, his stand-up is awful.  The best part of his stand-up is the standing up part.  Other than that, he doesn’t stand (see what I did there) a chance on the feet against pretty much anybody in the promotion.  He’d probably have to drop to flyweight to record a KO, and even that’s iffy.

Ilir Latifi is a wrestler with textbook wrestler striking on the feet, heavy overhands and hooks, but nothing more intricate than basic 1-2s and 2-3s (cross-hook).  He’s lost three of his last four bouts but is coming off a close win against Tanner Boser.  His game plan won’t change no matter the opponent, consisting of takedowns against the cage and maintaining top control. 

On the feet, he’ll have a clear advantage, and if he can avoid the dreaded Ezekiel Choke while in the top position, he should be able to outlast Olyenik and find a late finish.  Oleynik always has long shot submission value and could be a good sleeper option for your roster, but he’ll be up against the clock and Ilir Latifi.  If the fight progresses passed the first round, it should be all Latifi.  Ilir Latifi via TKO, round two.

Winner: Ilir Latifi | Method: TKO Rd.2

Marc Diakiese (+140) vs Viacheskav Borshchev (-160)

Diakiese: DK: $7.5k | Borshchev: DK:$8.7k

This is a crunchy little stand-up banger right here.  Viacheslav Borshchev is a nasty mother-shut-your-mouf making his second UFC appearance after an impressive showing on the Contenders Series.  Marc Diakiese is a high-level kickboxer and ten-fight UFC veteran who needs a win to avoid his second three-fight losing streak in the promotion.  

Borshchev is 5-1 professionally and has very slick striking.  He has tight, technical kickboxing with fearless aggression and clever creativity and uses extended combinations consistently.  My man even landed a rolling thunder kick in his bout on the Contenders Series and finished the fight in the second round with slick counter striking.

Borshchev’s best weapons are his poindexter looks; he looks like his parents drop him off at Target, where he spends his day playing display video games in the electronics department.  But don’t let that fool you, this guy fights violently and attacks the body with combinations before unloading to the head.

Marc Diakiese needs to fight like Jorge Masvidal in a Miami restaurant; make this a grimy street scrap with a sucker punch during the glove touch.  Diakiese’s career has been plagued by an unwillingness to let his hands go.  He’s often too tentative, too picky with his engagements, and has found himself on the wrong end of some close decisions.  Marc has solid one-strike kickboxing and excellent hand speed and has faced very stiff competition inside the Octagon.

Diakiese is coming off back-to-back L’s, including a first-round submission loss to Rafael Alves.  If Diakiese isn’t aggressive from the jump and moving forward with combinations, he might get run over.  Borshchev is a frontrunner and a quick starter; Diakiese is the opposite.  You have to get a rolling downhill start and kick the clutch to get Diakiese started in the first round.  He can’t get off to a slow start here.  Viacheslav Borshchev via TKO, round two.

Winner: Viacheslav Borshchev | Method: TKO Rd.2

Prelims

Highlighted Matchup

Jennifer Maia (+340) vs Manon Fiorot (-450)

Maia: DK: $6.8k | Fiorot: DK:$9.4k

Since her debut just over a year ago, I’ve been trying to tell you about Manon Fiorot.  She has legit championship skills and physical attributes.  Her style is a cross between Holly Holm and Michelle Waterson, and she has some of the best striking in women’s MMA.  She’s 3-0 in the UFC with two second-round TKO wins and is coming off a decisive decision win over Mayra Bueno Silva.  

Other than technical striking ability, what stands out about Fiorot is her fearlessness.  She just goes for it.  Her aggression is hard to handle, and her left hand from the southpaw stance is a laser beam.  I’ve shopped my line of “Be First & Be Often” throw pillows to Big Lots, and I tabbed Fiorot as the lead spokeswoman for the brand.  Manon is always the first to engage.  I can trump any advice Dale Brown (the D.U.S.T head trainer) can give you with this one street fighting tip: Be the first to throw and don’t stop until your heckler looks like Luana Carolina after that Molly McCann spinning back elbow.  AKA, be first and be often.  

Fiorot uses a bladed Karate stance and can pepper with side-kicks from the outside and leap into the pocket with short blitzing combinations like Michelle Waterson and Wonderboy Thompson.  And she maintains very little dead air between engagements, allowing her opponents little time to mount their own offense.

So far, Fiorot has shown a strong clinch game with the ability to land trips and gain top control, but we haven’t seen her takedown defense and guard.  Jennifer Maia is a former title challenger and will provide Fiorot with a unique test if Maia can implement takedowns into her game plan.

This is a big step in the maturation of Manon Fiorot.  A win against Jennifer Maia will catapult her into a number one contender and possible main event fight.  Manon Fiorot via decision.

Winner: Manon Fiorot | Method: Decision

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

I hit a home run last week with Paul Craig, flippantly tossed the bat, and casually strolled around the bases. If there's anything high and tight my next at bat, I'm charging. This week, Chris Daukaus (+290) has Jackson-to-Grant written all over him. If he can make Blaydes work for takedowns and scramble back to his feet, he'll have the advantage on the feet.

I've underestimated Kai Kara-France's power in the past, but I won't this time. He can finish any fight on the feet, overwhelming with hand speed and volume. Like Daukaus, Kara-France will have to keep his back off the mat and sell out to get back to his feet if he does get taken down. But if this turns into a kickboxing match, he will cause Askarov all kinds of problems.

Max Griffin (+190) will be fighting a mirror image of himself against Neil Magny. Their statures and skillsets are nearly identical, and Max is riding a three-fight winning streak with two finishes. Griffin needs to stay off the cage, maximize distance, trade with Magny, and let the chips fall where they may.

Pick 'Em

Neil Magny (-235) vs. Max Griffin (+190)

            Winner: Neil Magny

 Method: Decision

Sara McMann (+180) vs. Karol Rosa (-220)

            Winner: Karol Rosa

 Method: Decision

Chris Gutierrez (+130) vs. Batgerel Danaa (-150)

    Winner: Batgerel Danaa

 Method: Decision

Aliaskhab Khizriev (-550) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (+390)

    Winner: Aliaskhab Khizriev

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Matheus Nicolau (+110) vs. David Dvorak (-130)

    Winner: David Dvorak

 Method: Decision

Luis Saldana (-120) vs. Bruno Souza (+100)

    Winner: Luis Saldana

 Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves. 

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy. 

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning