We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

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First ballot.

Derek Brunson (+145 ) vs. Kevin Holland (-175)

Brunson: DK: $7.8k | Holland: DK: $8.4k

*Fight Of The Night*

You don’t need me to tell you 2020 was a wild year. With the aid of personification, you could say 2020 howled at the moon. We saw the empirical rise of de facto mob bosses; toilet paper hoarders turned tyrants fighting bitter turf wars to maintain their strangleholds on precious ass cleaning supplies. With the world crumbling around them, their biggest concern was the possibility of having to rely on primitive tools such as leaves and socks. Their monopolies on selfishness led to inflated street prices, Charmin quilted rolls skyrocketed, and Wet Wipes tripled (if you’re wiping dry, you’re just pushing it around).

Everything was on lockdown; many businesses were forced to close or operate under strict guidelines. Restaurant owners were cited for keeping their doors open, and patrons were cited for eating in handicap parking spaces without placards. Old Halloween costumes became life-saving face coverings, and a little pollen in the nose accompanied by an involuntary bodily function could get you stomped out in public.

However, one man was a legend. Kevin Holland. The man known as “Trailblazer” was exactly that in 2020, a modern-day Kit Carson, Davy Crockett. Mr. Holland dominated 2020; he busted out the full-body latex suit, the whip, and greased the ceiling swing. He now claims those infamous three hundred and sixty-five days on his taxes as a dependent.

Kevin Holland ended 2020 a perfect 5-0 with four TKO/KO victories and was angling to fight for a sixth time on the year’s final card a week after his TKO win over the legend, Jacare Souza. A hammer fist from the guard; that’s how Holland finished Jacare inside of two minutes. He entered last year, coming off a submission loss to the very talented Brendan Allen. Most fighters don’t fight five times in five years, but Holland went on an epic five-fight run in a single year after that loss.

If IDGAF were a person, it would be Kevin Holland. That’s how I’d describe him if you’ve never had the pleasure of seeing him fight. He thrives and actively seeks a dogfight; the uglier, the better. He’ll serve you up a four-piece and a dry biscuit and ask you to fill out a customer satisfaction survey after; he’s constantly talking ish to his opponent and engaging in an oft-overlooked element to the fight game, psychological warfare.

Kevin Holland’s hand speed and long, rangy punches are similar to Michael Johnson’s. He can hit you when you think you’re safe, and he sets up everything with range-establishing side, front, and round kicks. An orthodox fighter, Holland’s lead leg is especially sneaky and quick to the target; he throws it with no switch as a lead and follows it with punches to close the distance. You have to earn every inch you gain against Holland. When he enters the pocket, he rarely relinquishes it without throwing combination counters and check-hooks on the way out. He’s uniquely aggressive in both north/south directions.

What I love about Kevin Holland is that he’s a freestyler. He’s unpredictable and feels the next strike rather than rehearsing pre-programmed attacks. I’ve never seen anyone throw a jab-hammer fist combination except Kevin Holland; he throws a jab and follows it like a traditional one-two with an overhead hammer fist instead of a cross.

There are some holes in Holland’s standup; lack of footwork is a major one. Instead of using short, choppy steps to slide into the pocket, Holland will leap or reach with punches to cover the distance. This makes him flatfooted at times and causes him to throw a lot of arm punches, and is usually the reason he takes heavy damage.

Don’t sleep on Kevin’s wrestling and ground game; he’s formidable on the mat and getting it there and is the prize student of former Middleweight title challenger and Jiu-Jitsu ace, Travis Lutter. Holland’s ground game will need to be on point when he steps in the cage with the always slept on Derek Brunson.

Derek Brunson is 12-5 in the UFC since 2012, a quiet under the radar seventeen fights in the promotion. He’s on a three-fight winning streak, his last loss coming in 2018 to Israel Adesanya, and five of his seven career losses have been via TKO/KO. When Derek loses, he loses on the feet. But he’s not a poor striker; it’s just that he’s the embodiment of going out on your shield.

Watch Brunson’s fight against Robert Whittaker. It’s only four minutes, but it encapsulates his entire career. He had Bobby Knuckles out on his feet after engaging recklessly and chasing Whittaker around the cage, pinwheeling his arms. Then, like Wile E. Coyote, he ran off a cliff and into a Whittaker right hand, and then a left, and then a head kick, and then it was a wrap. Wrap it up, B.

Offensively, Brunson is an underrated striker, but defensively he’s a Ben Askren, face down waiting to happen. A southpaw, Derek has an unassuming rear round kick that he uses to chip away at the body and legs. He throws his kicks as long-range attacks, leaning back and throwing and striking with an extended leg rather than a traditional Thai round kick which is a short-range strike requiring you to be closer, rotate your hips, and land the kick with your shin at a forty-five-degree angle. Also, Brunson’s left hand is a piston, and he almost exclusively fights from outside the pocket.

Derek Brunson has two ways to approach this fight, new school D.B. or old school D.B. New school Brunson was unrecognizable in his approach in his last bout against the highly touted Edmen Shahbazyan. Brunson slow-played Shahbazyan, letting Edmen gas himself out looking for an early finish. Then Brunson KO’d Shahbahzyan, twice; once at the end of the second round and once twenty seconds into the third round after Herb Dean decided he wanted to see a man die that night, refusing to call the fight when Edmen was virtually out cold as the buzzer sounded to end the second. It was like hitting the snooze button for an extra minute of sleep. Shahbahzyan was caught in an Inception-type alternate reality; he got knocked out in a dream inside a dream of him getting knocked out. He woke up on a plane stuck on a layover sitting between Billy Mays and Michael Jackson.

Old School D.B. would chase you around the cage like a serial killer swinging haymakers instead of kitchen knives. Chaos, Brunson has thrived in it. During chaotic exchanges, Derek is at his best and his worst. He can overwhelm and finish you, or his aggression gets exploited, and he’s the one waved off. His left hand is a fight changer, but his right hand falls to his waist when he throws it, and he leads with his head and his chin up in the air. Brunson also has excellent wrestling in the center of the Octagon or against the cage. If he locks his hands behind you and you meet the minimum height requirements, you’re going for a ride.

Kevin Holland faded late against Darren Stewart, his only fight that went the distance last year. The final round ended with Stewart in dominant top position dropping bombs that could have ended the contest if there had been a few more seconds on the clock. Brunson could try to drag Holland into the championship rounds, test his cardio, but it's a big gamble trying to get it there. I say bring back old school Brunson, stand in the center of the cage, and unleash chaos, see who's left standing.

This is a virtual toss-up, and both fighters have fight-ending and Fantasy point-scoring potential. I think Holland lands a right hand in the second round that wobbles Brunson and leads to a TKO victory. Grab your Bics and Yankee Candles; time to put it on wax. Kevin Holland via TKO, round two.

Winner: Kevin Holland | Method: TKO Rd.2

Gregor Gillespie (-250 ) vs Brad Riddell (+195)

Gillespie: DK: $9k | Riddell: DK:$7.2k

I’ll say this about Gillespie vs. Riddell; I have no clue who wins it. I flipped a coin, and it landed on its edge. If Gillespie can close the distance, initiate the clinch, and grind out a couple of takedowns, he’ll win. If Riddell can stay upright and force extended striking periods, he’ll slowly start to pick Gillespie apart and work his way to the dub. This isn’t the classic wrestler vs. striker matchup—Riddell has excellent wrestling/grappling as well—but Gillespie’s ground game is just a notch above Riddell’s.

Gillespie has the Khabib approach when it comes to imposing your will on the opponent with the continual threat of takedowns. A stuffed takedown isn’t a failure; they’re more like money in the bank, similar to body shots that add up. Every attempt thwarted is energy spent and one takedown closer to breaking the opponent. When Gillespie gets hold of you, it’s hard to get him off. Gregor will use open mat takedowns (singles and doubles) to close the distance and initiate the clinch, working body locks, and leg rides to drag you to the mat.

Against the always game Yancy Medeiros, Gillespie held a body lock for almost the entire duration of the first round, frustrating Medeiros, which ultimately led him to get desperate in the second round. Gillespie forced Medeiros into making a mistake and capitalized, finally scoring a takedown after going zero for ten on takedown attempts in the first round. Gregor immediately gained a dominant position and ended the fight with heavy ground and pound.

On his feet, Gillespie has textbook wrestler striking, big power with stiff basic combinations. But his striking can only sustain consciousness for so long. His only loss came via head kick KO in his most recent bout against an average striker in Kevin Lee. Brad Riddell will definitely have the edge on the feet, and his most recent fight against Alex de Silva provided a style matchup almost identical to this fight against Gillespie.

De Silva was able to take Riddell down in the first but couldn’t mount much offense from the top. After the first round, de Silva was unable to score another takedown, and Riddell slowly began to win the standup exchanges. Brad Riddell is a dead ringer for a mini Ryan Bader; his stance and stature are almost identical. But Riddell is a more diverse striker than Bader, using a more traditional kickboxing style. Riddell is mostly a ones and one-twos type of striker with fight-ending power in his right hand and is good at utilizing leg kicks, which will come in handy slowing down Gillespie's takedown attempts if Riddell sets them up properly and doesn’t throw them naked.

Riddell doesn’t commit offensively to his wrestling, but he’s a solid defensive grappler and hard to hold down if he can’t defend a takedown. Gillespie is 6-1 in the UFC, and Riddell is 3-0. If Gillespie stays committed to his takedowns, I like him a little more than Riddell as a Fantasy option. Gillespie also gives you a better shot at scoring finishing points; five of his six UFC wins have come via stoppage. Give me Gregor Gillespie via decision.

Winner: Gregor Gillespie | Method: Decision

Adrian Yanez (-225) vs. Gustavo Lopez (+175)

Yanez: DK: $8.8k | Lopez: DK: $7.4k

This is a wild scrap in disguise conducting controlled buys in a back alley, aka, an undercover banger. Speed (Yanez) versus aggression and power (Lopez). Here we have two fighters with excellent finishing rates, Lopez has finished eleven of his twelve pro wins, and Yanez finished nine of twelve. Lopez made his debut last year on short notice against the future title threat Merab Dvalishvili. Merab dominated Lopez on the mat, but Gustavo had his moments and showed he can compete at a high level.

On the feet, Gustavo mostly throws hooks, overhands, and shovel punches (in between hooks and uppercuts) in long succession. Gustavo has a very upright stance and doesn’t move his head off centerline, and tends to hang out in the pocket too long. He camps out in the pocket, on some Bear Grills squeezing-beetle-dung-through-a-sock-for-drinkable-water type ish. Combine Gustavo’s tendency to loiter in the danger zone with his lack of head movement, and you have a big hole in his game that good strikers will exploit. Lopez’s style reminds me a lot of Joseph Benevidez before the Figueiredo fights but with more power.

Adrian Yanez is an untested, savvy striker with quick hands and slick boxing. Yanez made his way to the UFC after scoring a forty-second TKO on the Contender Series; he followed up with a first-round head kick KO in his debut. Yanez is at his best engaging from the outside, utilizing his superior hand speed but can also mix it up in the pocket and uses subtle head movement to counter. His right hand is dangerous, and he can throw it straight or as an overhand. Keep your eye on his right hand; Yanez likes to cheat with it and throw it half-cocked like a dart punch to sneak it between the opponent’s guard.

Up-the-middle kicks (teeps, side kicks, and snap kicks) are excellent ways to manage distance and interrupt the opponent’s timing. Yanez uses up-the-middle kicks to that effect and can turn them into round kicks and catch you with your hands down trying to parry a body kick.

These fights are all toss-ups. Good luck on your pick ‘ems this week. Yanez is on a five-fight winning streak, four by TKO/KO. If he can avoid a firefight and control the exchanges from kickboxing range, he will win. If Lopez can make it a firefight in boxing range, he will win. Someone is going to get caught, maybe even early. On wax, Adrian Yanez via TKO, round two.

Winner: Adrian Yanez | Method: TKO Rd.2

Song Kenan (+155 ) vs Max Griffin (-190)

Kenan: DK: $7.7k |Friffin: DK: $8.5k

You already know; this is a toss-up. Max Griffin looked like a killer in his last fight after looking very average in several bouts prior. Song Kenan is a quiet 4-1 in the UFC with three finishes. Nothing about Kenan’s game is flashy or explosive, but he’s tough and technical and hard to beat. Both fighters have solid all-around games, but I’d give the wrestling/advantage to Max Griffin, and if I’m in his corner, I’m telling him to clinch and drag Kenan to the ground and make him work from his back.

Song Kenan’s best weapon is his lead leg; he throws it with no switch with the knee as the propelling fulcrum instead of turning his hips to fire it. It’s sneaky and quick, and when he punctuates hand combinations with it, it can be a fight ender. Song’s right hand has a natural three-quarters curve that finds its way to the target around the guard. However, Song tends to let his rear leg drift forward, causing him to square his feet and leave him flat-footed in the pocket and vulnerable to counters.

Max Griffin is long with a cape on, super long. Homie can hit you from the vending machines in the back. Go-go gadget jab. In his last fight, Max used excellent bilateral movement and never got off his bike. He stayed on the outside, circling and attacking with short combinations. Speaking of his last fight, go check that out right meow. Serio, Google Max Griffin vs. Ramiz Brahimaj right meow. I'm sorry, are you saying meow? Max Griffin knocked Brahimaj’s ear off with an elbow in the clinch, no, really, clean off. “I want to take his ear… off”- Castor Troy. It was like a Mr. Potato Head ear fell off and rolled under the table, and the dog got to it.

This time around, I think Max will want to mix things up a little more and look to clinch against the cage and work trips and underhooks. He needs to make this an ugly MMA fight and not a technical kickboxing match with four-ounce gloves. I haven’t seen a lot of Song Kenan, and he has serious holes in his game (especially on the mat), but he has a way of landing fight-ending strikes. As a slight underdog, I like Kenan’s value. Song Kenan via TKO, round three.

Winner: Song Kenan | Method: TKO Rd.3

Cheyanne Buys (-365 ) vs Blank Portrait (Montserrat Ruiz) (+275)

Buys: DK: $9.1k | Ruiz: DK: TBD

Cheyanne Buys and her husband J.P. Buys will be making their UFC debuts this weekend after they both earned contracts on the same Contenders Series card. That’s dope. I don’t know much about the Buys’, but Cheyanne looks to be a formidable striker in the making, and J.P. looks to have very dangerous grappling. Cheyanne has aggressive standup, with clean straight punches and Thai-style round kicks. She’s a high-output striker, has nasty knees in the Thai clinch, and thrives in an ugly, grinding fight.

Buys’ original opponent was Tenth Planet grappling extraordinaire Kay Hansen, and the matchup would have been fireworks. But Hansen dropped the fight about a week out, and a blank portrait on the UFC website stepped in. I couldn’t find any footage of Montserrat Ruiz; she did compete for Invicta FC (UFC owned), but I canceled my Fight Pass subscription, so I’m going to have to pick Stevie Wonder on this one. Cheyanne Buys, decision.

Winner: Cheyanne Buys | Method: Decision

Tai Tuivasa ( ) vs Don’tale Mayes Harry Hunsucker ( )

Tuivasa: DK: $8.9k | Hunsucker: DK: TBD

I wrote the single most life-altering piece of sports literature ever conceived for the original matchup between Tai Tuivasa and Don'tale Mayes. Unfortunately, Mayes had to drop the fight just days out, and Harry Hunsucker steps in. No, really, that's his name. Harry Hunsucker. The Shroud of Turin, the Rosetta Stone, King Tut’s Tomb, my original manuscript will now take its rightful place in the Smithsonian among the most cherished artifacts in human history. Tai Tuivasa via TKO, round one.

Winner: Tai Tuivasa | Method: TKO Rd.1

Prelims

Highlighted Matchup

Leonardo Santos (+170) vs. Grant Dawson (-210)

Santos: DK: $7.6k | Dawson: DK: $8.6k  

Leonardo Santos has quietly compiled a 7-0-1 undefeated record in the UFC and was the Ultimate Fighter Brazil 2 welterweight winner. Santos’s made his debut almost a decade ago in 2012, but a Tony Romo-like list of injuries has often derailed his career. He has nonthreatening striking, there’s no flashy techniques, explosive athleticism, or hyper aggression to speak of, but he just seems to hang around and chip away until he gets his hand raised. The combinations he throws are basic one-twos and three-twos (jab-cross, cross-hook), but he’s smooth and uses his free hand defensively to frame and hamper the opponent’s offense. Santos will counter off the lead hand frame or use it to initiate the Thai clinch and deliver knees.

This fight will come down to grappling and pace. Santos is slick on the ground, and Grant Dawson will definitely test Santos's guard. Look for Dawson to dictate the pace, both on the feet and the mat. Dawson is one of the rare fighters who have better kicks and standing knees than boxing; Umar Nurmagomedov also comes to mind. The dreaded calf kick, Dawson uses them early and often and uses them in combination with standing knees. The attack is unique and takes advantage of trying to defend the calf kick; fighters will try to catch or bear down on it, and Dawson will immediately follow it with a knee up the middle. Grant will throw more flying knees than jabs and probably punches altogether; his hands are singular, not plural, just a right hand.

The value in Grant Dawson is his ground game. He has relentless takedowns with crafty level changes, single-leg entries, and Judo throws. Grant never stops working from the top and continually advances position and scores with peppering ground and pound. Not only can Dawson dictate where the fight takes place, but he also weaponizes cardio and pushes a pace that few can maintain over fifteen minutes. Santos gassed late in his most recent bout after spending all his energy trying to finish it in the second. This has the potential to be a high-level grappling match with plenty of scrambles, reversals, and submission attempts. Grant Dawson via decision. Wax on, wax off.

Winner: Grant Dawson | Method: Decision

Trevin Giles (+115) vs. Roman Dolidze (-145)

Giles: DK: $8k | Dolidze: DK: $8.2k  

If you’re ever in line at Popeye’s and they run out of chicken sammiches, you may suddenly find yourself thrust into a street fight type of scenario; you may have to scrap your way out. Whenever a physical altercation becomes the only option, always remember this one golden rule: be first and be often. I plan to pitch this phrase to Bed Bath & Beyond in hopes that “Be First & Be Often” becomes the new “Live Laugh Love.” If I'm ever at your pad and see "Be First & Be Often" accent pillows on your futon, you're getting an immediate invite to the Thunderdome.

This is a potential banger. I say potential because both fighters have the power to end the fight early but have low output styles that can make for a lackluster affair. Whoever leads the dance and engages most often will win. Dolidze is a huge power striker with good offensive wrestling and was a world champion grappler. Trevin Giles has a big advantage in hand speed, and when he doesn’t settle for throwing only single shots for long stretches, he is very dangerous. Keeping with the theme, this is a toss-up. With a slight adjustment to his output, I see Trevin Gile’s speed causing Dolidze problems. Trevin Giles via TKO, round three.

Winner: Trevin Giles | Method: TKO Rd.3

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

Wavy Davey Grant, homies. Last week I hit on Davey at (+250). I also dropped a Jackson on Belal Muhammad, but that fight was cut short by an eye gouge. Muhammad was on his way to catching a serious ass cracking, so I likely wouldn't have hit on him anyway. I'm doubling up again this week and dropping Twen's on Leonardo Santos and Brad Riddell. There aren't any odds in my (+210) to (+250) wheelhouse, but Riddell at (+190) is a solid bet. Santos at (+170) has a ton of value as well.

Pick 'Em

Marion Reneau (+170 ) vs. Macy Chiasson (-210 )

Winner: Macy Chiasson

 Method: Decision

Montel Jackson (-750 ) vs. Jesse Strader (+475 )

Winner: Montel Jackson

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Julia Avila (+125 ) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (-155 )

Winner: Julia Avila

 Method: Decision

Bruno Silva (+130) vs. J.P. Buys (-160)

    Winner: J.P. Buys

 Method: Anaconda Choke Rd.2

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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