We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko & Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

It was the equivalent of having your six-year-old child write up an increased spending proposal to present to your senior investors and showing up to the meeting with an Outback Steakhouse children’s placemat with the crossword puzzle incorrectly filled out in red crayon. Imagine how stupid you’d feel when the CEO leans forward in his seat, arcs an eyebrow and says, “That’s an Applebee’s child’s placemat…” half question, half statement of fact.

Now imagine the embarrassment when you have to correct him, “Actually, it's an Outback Steakhouse child’s placemat… Sir.”

The other twelve Senior Brokers clear their throats and lean forward, a synchronized motion as if propelled by the same hand of curiosity. The under-the-breath mutterings roll around the table like the wave during the seventh-inning stretch. Collectively, it sounds like confirmation.

Two beads of sweat form on your brow in the sixty-five-degree air-conditioned room. You move quickly to plan B, the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency backup plan.

The gold clasps on the Samsonite briefcase spring open with a flare, and the bodies in the room lean back in the pleather Amazon gaming chairs, hands rubbing their chins, contemplative. Years of poker nights with the homies have fined tuned your reactions or lack thereof when you gaze upon the contents. There is no plan C.

The only sound in the room is that of a chair groaning under the strain of excessive weight. A big galoot of a man with a suburban cul-de-sac hairline straightens up and extends his neck, trying to sneak a peek at what else you could possibly have in store.

The moral of the story hits you just before you display plan B to your former constituents. Sadly, you had to learn it the hard way. You place the macaroni and glitter glued to purple construction paper on the table for all to see and think to yourself, never go full Paulo Costa.

That’s the real world equivalent of when Paulo Costa stepped into the Octagon against Israel Adesanya with the worst game plan ever conceived. When he faces fellow former title challenger Marvin Vettori this weekend, the question will be, has Paulo regrouped and progressed to finger painting with watercolors?

Main Card

Paulo Costa (+130 ) vs Marvin Vettori (-155)

Costa: DK: $7.6k | Vettori: DK:$8.6k

I have no idea what to expect from Paulo Costa in his first fight in over a year since the Adesanya debacle; your guess is as good as mine. The lasting image from that fight was Costa’s left leg. After just two low calf kicks, Costa’s leg was lumped up and swollen like Martin Lawrence when the hitman beat him up. Paulo's leg looked like it was suffering a shellfish allergic reaction. Instead of checking the kicks that caused the damage, Costa just shook his head like a dog with an ear infection every time it landed. Costa didn’t throw a single punch. He only threw a few kicks and made very few attempts to close the distance. It was the most disappointing title performance I can remember. And yes, I picked Costa to win. D’oh!

The last time we saw the real Paulo Costa was against Yoel Romero over two years ago. It was a fight I thought Romero won as Costa got out to an early lead and faded late in the third round. Paulo’s game is power, speed, and athleticism. His gifts are all physical, and his shortcomings are all mental. He’s all-hooks and heavy round kicks while stalking forward aimlessly. Costa throws nothing but bombs and assigns an emphasis on attacking the body. His kicks are fast and heavy, especially his lead head kick; he throws it out of nowhere and even caught Adesanya once with it.

Costa’s major malfunction is his lack of purpose. He just fights and has no strategic game plan at all; see enemy, hit enemy. It’s that simple for Paulo Costa. Also, there’s little self-awareness during fights, which are signs of mental weakness/low fight IQ. And there’s no self-reflection after fights like we often see with Conor McGregor. After the Adesanya fight, Costa hopped in a VW hippie van and rolled through Excuse City, Utah, picking up hitchhikers along the way. A collection of yes-men who helped Costa establish an excuse maker’s commune in the middle of the desert far out of reach of the influences of modern civilization.

Marvin Vettori will no doubt look to wrestle Paulo Costa and try to drag Costa to the mat as often as he can. Costa was successful stuffing Romero’s first-round takedown attempts because he routinely threw first and threw often. If you toss out the Adesanya fight, Costa throws eight significant strikes per minute. His high output and heavy forward pressure make it hard for the opponent to move forward and initiate clean takedowns. Vettori has never been finished in his twenty-two-fight career, and Costa has ended eleven of his twelve professional wins early. Paulo has to try to land something fight-changing early. If it goes to the championship rounds, Vettori will have a massive cardio and strategic advantage.

Marvin Vettori is a souped-up Thomas Shelby. There’s an air of “don’t F with me” that accompanies Vettori’s presence inside the cage. Vettori is an aggressive power striker who rarely throws single punches. Everything he throws is in combination and accompanied by heavy forward pressure. There’s little to no feeling out process with Vettori, and he’s consistently the first to engage. Both fighters like to lead the dance but for different reasons. Costa wants to overwhelm with aggression, while Vettori uses his pressure to initiate takedowns and the clinch. A southpaw and mostly pure boxer, Vettori will attack with short, basic, yet fundamentally sound combinations; double jabs, one-twos, and two-threes (cross-hook).

Marvin is a grinder and has the style to push Costa against the cage and drag him to the mat and rinse and repeat until Costa gasses. Scoring takedowns and top control and limiting the number of exchanges on the feet is Vettori’s easiest path to victory. Don’t get me wrong, Vettori can stand and bang with Costa, but Costa is the far greater knockout threat. While Costa needs to look for an early finish, Vettori needs to slow-play Costa into the late rounds by pushing him against the fence and working trips.

On the feet, Costa will have a decided advantage technically and both power and speed-wise. Defensively, Vettori struggles to defend second-level strikes and likes to pull straight back with his head. When you use a “pull” technique, you have to either counter immediately or pull and get your head off the centerline before returning to the center head position. Vettori pulls and comes right back to the center every time, and as the fight wanes into the later rounds, he gets lazy and tends to accept taking damage. Those are bad habits to have against a combination power striker with heavy forward pressure like Paulo Costa.

When it comes to Fantasy, Costa will be the fighter with the most potential to end the fight. Vettori only has one finish in his last ten bouts. And Yoel Romero and Israel Adesanya are the only two fighters to survive Paulo Costa in fourteen career fights. Vettori’s value will be takedowns and time clocked in the top position. If Vettori can score takedowns, he can rack up significant strikes while maintaining the position. These main events have been complete toss-ups lately, but I was able to avoid beginning a main event-losing streak last week when Norma Dumont dominated Aspen Ladd. Marvin Vettori via decision.

Winner: Marvin Vettori | Method: Decision

Grant Dawson (-360) vs. Ricky Glenn (+270)

Dawson: DK: $6.9k | Glenn: DK: $9.3k

Slick Ricky Bobby Glenn vs. Grant Dawson should be an undercover banger, featuring slick grappling and back and forth 50/50 exchanges on the feet. Grant Dawson is a strong wrestler/grappler with a unique stand-up style. Dawson is one of the rare fighters with better kicks than boxing; Umar Nurmagomedov also comes to mind. The dreaded calf kick, Dawson uses them early and follows them with a sneaky standing knee. The attack is unique and takes advantage of defending the calf kick. Fighters will try to catch or bear down on the calf kick, and Dawson will immediately follow it with a knee up the middle. It’s a risky strike that Grant uses a little too often and leaves him open to power counters over the top. You’ll see Grant throw more flying knees than jabs and punches altogether; his hands aren’t plural; he only has a right one.

The value in Grant Dawson is his ground game. He has relentless takedowns with crafty level changes, single-leg entries, and Judo throws. Grant never stops working from the top and continually advances position and scores with peppering ground and pound. Not only can Dawson dictate where the fight takes place, but he also weaponizes cardio and pushes a pace that few can maintain over fifteen minutes.

Grant Dawson is a finisher, having ended fifteen of his seventeen professional wins before the final bell. More specifically, Grant is a submission Bob Ross. There’s no such thing as a mistake, only happy accidents. Grant has eleven submission dubs, and noine of those are rear-naked choke finishes. If Dawson gets your back, it’s Dak to Ceedee Lamb; it’s a wrap.

Ricky Glenn has racked up a whopping thirty-seven seconds of Octagon time over the last three years. Glenn ended a three-year hiatus dating back to 2018 this past summer. He KO’d Joaquim Silva quicker than your Pop-Tart will burn in the toaster. Awkward and unorthodox are traits that are hard to prepare for, and Glenn possesses both of those. Slick Ricky Bobby Glenn has a weird crooked overhand left that seems to have devastating effects. At times, it looks like the punch didn’t even land, but Glenn’s opponent will suddenly look like they’re at the YMCA diving headfirst off the high dive. Remember those little flipbooks you had as a kid; you’d thumb the pages quickly, and it would make the image look like it was moving? That’s what Ricky Glenn’s striking looks like, almost like he’s moving in slow motion. But it’s effective.

Pay attention to Glenn’s lead foot. As a southpaw, he consistently tries to gain outside foot position, and when he does, that left hand always finds the mark. Like Stallone in Cliffhanger, Glenn hangs around and can stay in a fight he’s losing by holding on with just his pinky. He’s an overall average fighter who overachieves and will have to bring his wrestling shoes and singlet this weekend to beat Grant Dawson. The key for Glenn will be dominating the center of the cage and staying on his feet and forcing scrambles if he ends up on his back.

Glenn has twenty-two professional wins and finished sixteen of them, twelve TKO/KO’s, and four subs. But his is quick TKO win this past June was his first finish in eight fights. Ricky has a higher striking output than Dawson at four and a half significant strikes landed per minute versus Dawson’s three and a half. But Dawson averages three and a half takedowns per fight, while Glenn averages just a half takedown more than I do. Glenn’s only real shot is to make this an ugly fight and keep it standing at all costs.

I think this fight has Grant Dawson submission victory written all over it. Grant Dawson via rear-naked choke, round three.

Winner: Grant Dawson | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Jessica-Rose Clark (-145) vs. Joselyne Edwards (+120)

Clark: DK: $8.5k | Edwards: DK: $7.7k

Don’t let the lack of name recognition fool you; these ladies are going to throw down. Both women have kickboxing/Muay Thai backgrounds and show no reservations about letting their hands go in the cage. Jessica-Rose has a more traditional Muay Thai style, punctuating hand combinations with kicks and standing elbows and looks to create damage in every position.

The technique of the day: Elbows. When throwing elbows, point your thumb to the ground. It changes the angle of the elbow and increases the chances of landing with the point, and helps the strike split the opponent's guard. Clark has nasty elbows that she likes to throw in the clinch and on the break. She’ll initiate the clinch just to break and score with a sneaky elbow through the guard.

Joselyne Edwards is more of a combination power striker who got into MMA through kickboxing. Edwards's best weapon is her aggression; she’ chases opponents around the cage with alternating wide hooks. It’s important to circle out of the pocket and not retreat in a straight line against Edwards because she’ll just follow you with never-ending power shots. Joselyne is a blitz striker who will hang back and choose her moments judiciously to explode with third and fourth-level strikes.

Edwards has major holes in her game. She struggles in MMA positions. While she can stand and bang with anyone, she has Big Lots Jiu-Jitsu and looks like she’s doing the doggie paddle upside down when she’s on her back. Picture a mime trapped in an invisible box; that’s Joselyne Edwards’s guard. Also, her aggression often gets her into trouble as she tends to over pursue and runs right into takedowns. Clark is capable of landing trip takedowns from the clinch and has effective ground and pound. Edwards will have to keep Clark at the end of her strikes to maintain distance at all times.

The toughest fights to pick are the ones featuring two evenly matched middle-tier fighters, and the last three cards have largely consisted of 50/50 matchups. Every damn fight is a split decision toss-up, and this card and fight are no exception. It’s hard to see a finish in this one, but Joselyne Edwards gives you the best chance at scoring one. The fighter who sleeps soundly on the Weekly Knockout “Be First & Be Often” throw pillows—found exclusively at Bed Bath & Beyond—and embraces the sound advice will win the fight. Joselyne Edwards via decision.

Winner: Joselyne Edwards | Method: Decision

Alex Caceres (+230 ) Seung Woo Choi (-290 )

Caceres: DK: $7k | Choi: DK: $9.2k

Bruce Leeroy has been a UFC staple since competing on the Ultimate Fighter in 2011. He is 13-10-1 in the promotion, and he’s currently on a four-fight winning streak and five of his last six overall. Bruce-Bruce will throw every technique he’s ever learned at any given moment and will never stop moving. He’s long, and at times uses his distance well. Other times, he gets into firefights in the pocket with no head movement or any deviation from the centerline. His footwork, lateral movement, and unpredictability are what he relies on most. Caceres works swings at the Bridge of Death and relieves Jim Miller from duty on weekends; he’s well established in the elite class of UFC gatekeepers. His all-or-nothing style ensures entertaining fights and stiff tests for promising prospects like he once was.

Seungwoo Choi is a world-class and highly decorated Muay Thai fighter. He uses classic hand and kick combinations and also mixes in standing elbows. Choi has long, straight punches with a range-managing jab from the outside but struggles inside the pocket where his long strikes are less effective. His lateral movement makes him a hard target to take down, and he’s tough to hold there if you do get him down. His grappling is more survival Jiu-Jitsu and used as a means to get him back to his feet. But Seung Woo’s hands are quicker than Taco Bell regrets, and his right hand is like the laser on the Predator’s shoulder.

Overall, Choi is a well-rounded fighter and is currently riding a three-fight winning streak after dropping his first two UFC bouts. The matchmakers doused Choi in urine and threw him to the elk in those first two bouts. Choi’s opponents were Movsar Evloev and Gavin Tucker; two guys with strong wrestling games and highly touted prospects with top ten potentials.

I think Choi’s speed will be too much for Bruce Leeroy. Choi’s straight punches will beat Caceres’s wide punches all night. Caceres has more submission wins than TKO/KO’s and could cause Choi problems if he can get Choi’s back, but I don’t see that happening. Caceres has been submitted seven times in his career but only finished by TKO/KO once, and Choi has zero submission wins. Seungwoo Choi via decision.

Winner: Seung Woo Choi | Method: Decision

Francisco Trinaldo (-125 ) vs Dwight Grant (+105)

Trinaldo: DK: $8.4k | Grant: DK:$7.8k

Francisco Trinaldo has twenty-two fights in the UFC dating back to 2012. Trinaldo is forty-three years old going on fifty-three, but his low tread warning indicator has yet to show. He’s tough like worn leather, his thread count is two thousand, and he’s neither tear-able nor rip-able. I don’t think I have ever seen Francisco Trinaldo get his ass completely kicked in the Octagon. He has been a tough out for any fighter he has ever faced, and that list of names is as impressive as it is long.

Ol’ Trinny is a southpaw who throws massive looping hooks and overhands that are hard to avoid. Trinaldo has stupid power and throws punches from odd angles. He can throw from his ankles like Dennis Eckersley or over the top like Max Scherzer. His punches rack up frequent flyer miles traveling halfway across the country before reaching the target. Trinaldo can box your face off like Castor Troy, grind on you against the cage, or take you down and beat on you. Getting beat up by Francisco Trinaldo is like getting beat up by your uncle. It's an experience similar to how Robin Ventura must have felt while getting his ass cracked by Nolan Ryan.

While Francisco Trinaldo’s thread count is on par with blackout curtains, Dwight Grant’s is more like two hundred fifty count mid-summer sheets. Grant is an average striker with lost-in-transit hand speed; they never make it to their destination. At times it looks like Grant is shadowboxing in the cage because he engages from too far away and stands in place. When he throws kicks, it looks like he’s climbing a chain-link fence, throwing his leg over the top and trying not to get his pants caught on the barbs. They just look labored, and that goes for his striking in general.

Grant is 3-2 in the UFC after winning on The Contenders Series. But he dawned a Purge mask and ambushed his last opponent in the bathroom of a Southern Nevada Valero, shaking the man down for his dub. Grant’s only chance against Trinaldo will be on the feet. If Trinaldo gets top position, Grant is gonna have a bad time. I was shocked like Marv to see this fight is basically an even pick ‘em. I think Trinaldo has a clear edge in every category. But whenever I completely write off a fighter, they usually request I make a Denver omelet with the egg on my face afterward. Francisco Trinaldo via decision.

Winner: Francisco Trinaldo | Method: Decision

Nicolae Negumereanu (-210 ) vs Ike Villanueva (+170)

Negumereanu: DK: $9.1k | Villanueva: DK:$7.1k

This one is a Toughman contest. Toughman Contests were amateur boxing competitions involving regular Joes like masters of the custodial arts (janitors if you want to be a jerk about it), mechanics, and Encyclopedia salesmen. They were three-round brawls with sixteen-ounce gloves and headgear. That’s the caliber of this fight. South Park season five, episode two.

Ike Villanueva made his way to the UFC by way of the Love's Truck Stop fighting circuit and is 1-3 in the promotion. All three losses ended with Ike resting comfortably with a number seven Sleep Number, a medium-firm setting. Villanueva has Tin Man striking; he’s stiff like a teenager’s socks. You can dare him, you can shame him, but there is nothing you can do to convince Villanueva to move his head. His hands… well, he has two of them, I can say that.

Nicolae Negurmereanu is better known by his alter ego, Bat Dad. His path to the UFC was scrapping in the bleachers at Little League games until he lost to Randy Marsh in what turned out to be a fight of the year candidate. Since then, Nicolae has rededicated himself to his craft and picked up his first UFC victory this past June.

He howls at the moon, Nicolae Negurmereanu; he throws haymakers like Oprah giveaways while eating punches like Mrs. Pacman. Nicolae moves in only one direction, forward, and parries punches with his face. But he throws alternating left-right bombs in combinations as long as his name. If you’re ever in 7-11 and you and Nicolae Negurmereanu reach for the last cheddar jack taquito at the same time, just let him have it. It ain’t worth it.

Someone’s going to sleep here, and it’s Isaac Villanueva. Nicolae Negurmereanu via TKO, round two.

Winner: Nicolae Negurmereanu | Method: TKO Rd.2

Prelims

Highlighted Matchups

Jung Yong Park (-110) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (-110)

Park: DK: $8.2k | Debo: DK: $8k

Debo’s back. The Brazilian Debo is making his second appearance in the Octagon after running Dusko Todorovic for his bike and chain in Debo’s debut this past summer. Let’s roll down Weekly Knockout Memory Lane on a pair of Heelys:

Gregory Rodrigues is twenty-noine years old, going on fifty-seven. He looks like if the Nogueira brothers, Rodrigo and Rogerio, had a baby. My man looks like the Brazilian Debo.

“Pops is trippin’, man. He wants me to ask for my bike back. You know I wouldn’t trip.”

“What bike?”

“The beach cruiser. The one I let you use a couple of weeks ago. The one I’ve been asking you about.”

“Oh… that bike. I didn’t know you wanted it back, homie. It’s right here…”

BAAAAAAM!

“That’s my bike, punk!”

Do you remember Danny Almonte? He was the sixteen-year-old Little Leaguer who posed as a twelve-year-old. He looked like Randy Johnson during the Little League World Series back in the early 2000s. That’s Gregory Rodrigues, the Danny Almonte of MMA. There’s no way this guy isn’t even thirty years old.

Mr. Rodrigues is no joke. His jab can deliver a KO blow, and he doubles and triples it like a pro boxer. Although Debo lacks hand speed, he can spark you at the glove touch; he has Dim Mak death touch power. Rodrigues marches down opponents with two to three-punch combinations and changes levels from the body to the head and vice versa. When Rodrigues steps into the cage to face Jun Yong Park, he’ll have an advantage on the feet, but the key for him will be staying upright and avoiding the clinch. The good news is Debo has strong takedown defense, and it will need to be on point because Park’s ground and pound from the top position is devastating.

Jun Yong Park is slept on like a Tempur-Pedic. Park, like Rodrigues, has excellent boxing and uses his jab to initiate all his offense. The jab is the most important strike in any combat sport and a day one fundamental that is often underutilized. Park uses his jab to hide power punches and to counter against forward pressure. Similar to the Korean Zombie, Park uses subtle slips and counters and remains in the pocket. He likes to slip to his power hand side and counter with a power uppercut.

In his most recent bout, Park dominated Tafon Nchukwi on the feet and completely annihilated Nchukwi once the fight hit the mat. Park made Nchukwi look like a CPR dummy on his back and a bloody mess with relentless elbows from the top. Park’s boxing is underrated, but his wrestling and ground striking are no secrets. All the boxing and ground and pound aside, Park is also handy with guillotine chokes and will snatch them from standing and grounded positions.

Park is 3-1 in the UFC and riding a three-fight winning streak, but he has yet to finish a fight inside the Octagon. Rodrigues finished two of his last three via KO but couldn't finish Dusko Todorovic in his debut. Both fighters average between four and a half and five significant strikes per minute and carry a consistent pace for the entire fifteen minutes. That being said, I think Rodrigues gives you a better shot at a finish, and I think Park will have a hard time getting him to the mat. If it stays standing for the duration, I’d give Rodrigues a slight advantage because of his power. Gregory Rodrigues via decision.

“Man, I got mind control over Debo. He be like shut the !@#$ up. I be quiet. But when he leaves… I be talking again.”

Winner: Gregory Rodrigues | Method: Decision

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

On Wednesday, Paulo Costa started doing Paulo Costa things. He claimed during an interview that he could not make the 185lb middleweight limit, and Vettori agreed to change the fight to a 195lb catchweight bout. That's never a good sign from a fighter. BUT, at plus money (+130) and not having to suffer through a normal weight cut, I think Costa's value goes up a little. The opposite could also be true; this could be a sign that Costa hasn't taken the fight seriously. There have also been rumors that Costa was spotted at the Hobby Lobby looking for game plan materials... Still, he's one of the more valuable underdogs on the card. Maybe a Jackson isn't in order, but I'll definitely be dropping a Hamilton on Costa.

It's going to be another rough night for the dogs, homies. I'll give an honorable mention to Daniel Lacerda making his debut on the prelims against Jeff Molina. Damn Daniel has typical Brazilian Muay Thai with flashy spinning attacks and a nasty submission game. He is 11-1 professionally with a one hundred percent finishing rate, including six subs and five TKO/KO's. Lacerda is coming in as the (+140) dog and could cause Molina serious problems if Molina can't keep the fight standing.

Pick 'Em

Mason Jones ( ) vs. David Onama ( ) *Late Replacement

Winner: Mason Jones

 Method: Decision 

Tabatha Ricci (-240 ) vs. Maria Oliveira (+190 )

Winner: Tabatha Ricci

 Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Jamie Pickett (+185 ) vs. Laureano Staropoli (-230 )

Winner: Laureano Staropoli

 Method: Decision

Khama Worthy (+145 ) vs. Jai Herbert (-175 )

    Winner: Jai Herbert

 Method: Decision

Jeff Molina (-170 ) vs. Daniel Lacerda (+140 )

    Winner: Jeff Molina

 Method: Decision

Livinha Souza (-125 ) vs. Randa Markos (+105 )

    Winner: Livinha Souza

 Method: Decision

Jonathan Martinez ( ) vs. Zviad Lazishvili ( ) *Late Replacement

    Winner: Zviad Lazishvili

 Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning