We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko & Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

I’m a loser. Always have been. The taste of victory offends my pallet. I prefer the bitter notes of defeat. They tend to linger. Reminders. Endless reminders. You weren’t good enough. You may never be.

I met losing at a young age; I can’t remember where exactly. Probably on a basketball court. We were always on the same team. No matter how well I played, winning never picked me. It never had the chance; I was always losing’s first pick. And losing always picks first.

It’s okay, though. When you’re a loser, there’s always something to do. Usually, that’s getting better. Growing. Learning. The thought that you’ve already done both to the fullest extent never crosses your mind. No, it looks both ways and thinks otherwise.

Hope. It comes with losing. You may not think so, but I do. I’ve never lost it. It’s always where I left it and the first place I look. Winning blunts hope. It can’t survive; the air is too thin at the top.

We plan to grow old together, losing and I. Like Cus D’Amato did Mike Tyson, losing brings out the best in me. All the superlatives and virtues honored in all of life’s greatest tales, heart, perseverance, fearlessness; they’re all on display. They never waver, even in the face of an inevitable outcome.

Soy un perdedor. I’m a loser, baby, so why don’t you kill me? The truth is, I’ve been a loser my whole life; I couldn’t win shit at a compost raffle. But I’m still here, and maybe that’s what makes me a winner.

The main event-losing streak now sits at six after Ciryl Gane squandered a two-round lead against Francis Ngannou. Hopefully, Gane reads this; losing isn’t an end; it’s often a beginning, usually for something beautiful, worthwhile. He’ll be back. But this week, when Jack Hermansson meets Sean Strickland in a middleweight main event, I’ll be putting my pick on wax for all the losers out there.

Main Card

Jack Hermansson (+170 ) vs Sean Strickland (-210)

Hermansson: DK: $7.4k | Strickland: DK:$8.8k

This one right here is a style matchup, bordering on the edge of a classic grappler vs. striker faceoff. I say bordering, only because the grappler, Jack Hermansson, is no slouch on his feet, but his path to victory, his advantage, is on the mat. The striker is Sean Strickland, a grimey boxer, a 1920’s Peaky Blinders gangster who courts violence with blood offerings in the cage. A win against Jack Hermansson would announce Strickland as the new diabolical Kingpin in the division looking to establish his empire. A win for Hermansson against Arthur Shelby would be a reminder to all future opposition that real gangsters don’t dance; they boogie.

At first glance, it may not look like it, but Sean Strickland is a unique striker. He’s a type of moron, an oxymoron. His style is oddly vanilla and intricate at the same time. Strickland arm punches; he doesn’t turn over his hips and snaps his punches using his shoulders. His short, quick three to four-punch combos seem to come out of nowhere. There’s little wasted motion and zero telegraphing, but the tradeoff is a lack of power.

Instead of one-punch KO power, Strickland uses volume and an accumulative effect to end fights. He constantly touches his opponent with varying degrees of peppering and power shots. Defensively, Strickland has holes. His stance is very upright, and he doesn’t use any head movement. Instead, Strickland uses shoulder rolls, his own version of the Philly Shell, to deflect strikes, leaving him in position to counter. Pay close attention when Strickland is under attack; it will look like he’s getting hit clean when he’s not. He uses his lead shoulder and forearm to block and absorb strikes by rolling with them.

Sean Strickland has a special move; he’s a trash talker. He will piece you up while giving you the color commentary of him piecing you up. His trash-talking cardio is a Madden 99; he’ll gum bump the entire fight while delivering four-piece combos on roller skates. He’s wild; he howls at the moon.

Strickland is 24-3 professionally with an 11-3 UFC record spanning back to 2014. He’s currently riding a five-fight winning streak and is a perfect 5-0 since making the step up to the Middleweight division. Strickland has a TKO win against Brendan Allen and is coming off a dominant unanimous decision against Uriah Hall. The key for Strickland will be keeping the fight standing and using volume to overwhelm Hermansson on the feet. Hermansson tends to get dropped in every fight and is defensively deficient.

Hermansson was approaching fringe title contention when he fought Marvin Vettori in 2020 and represented a style of challenger that Israel Adesanya has yet to see in the Octagon. We’ve seen the Champ against every type of striker imaginable, but we haven’t seen him against a dangerous grappler. Since 2016, Hermansson has quietly gone 9-4 in the UFC and rebounded from the Vettori loss with a dominant ass cracking of Edmen Shahbazyan last year. He was able to control Shahbazyan on the mat and battered him with constant ground and pound for the entire fifteen minutes. Hermansson straight Shang Tsung’d Shahbazyan.

“The Joker” brings long, awkward striking to the cage and elite Jiu-Jitsu and submissions. Like a deck of cards, The Joker is wild; it’s impossible to predict how he’ll match up with anyone. He fought Kelvin Gastelum as a heavy underdog and sub’d Kelvin with a heel hook in just over a minute. If it were a best of seven series, Gastelum likely gentleman sweeps Hermansson. But Hermansson just finds ways to win, the complete opposite of the Dallas Cowboys, who always find ways to lose.

Hermansson’s best weapons on the feet are long-range kicks to the body and legs. He’s an excellent kicker, but his hands are below average. If given the opportunity to stand on the outside and probe with his jab, Hermansson can survive on his feet with most in the division, but if his opponent gets inside of his long reach, he struggles. Herm doesn’t put combinations together fluidly and is mostly a one-punch striker who lacks power. 

Hermansson can win this fight, and he can finish it. If he commits to his wrestling/grappling and doesn’t abandon it after a couple of failed takedown attempts, he can make this ugly and drag Strickland to the mat. You don’t want this guy on top of you. He’s a grinder and is always looking to snatch a neck. Hermansson is coming in as the sizeable (+185) dog and has serious value as a submission threat.

So here we are; we have arrived at the pivotal moment. Seven straight main event L’s are staring me in the face, but luckily there are still thirteen seconds left on the clock, plenty of time. Sean Strickland via TKO, round four.

Winner: Sean Strickland | Method: TKO Rd.4

Punahele Soriano (-190 ) vs. Nick Maximov (+160 )

Soriano: DK: $8.6k | Maximov: DK: $7.6k

While the main event borders on a classic grappler vs. striker matchup, this one right here meets the criteria. Punahele Soriano is a homerun striker with walk-off power, while Nick Maximov is a Diaz Brother protégé and stifling grappler. The fighter who dictates where the fight takes place will win the fight.

A southpaw, Punahele has Mega Man cannons in each hand and unloads them in multiples of two’s. He’s a combination striker who will lower his head and swing for the fences, putting one hundred percent into every strike. Although he tends to gas, Punahele maintains his power for the duration and can change the tide of the fight at any moment.

Soriano is 2-1 in the UFC and has a win on The Contenders Series. He’s coming off a competitive loss to Brendan Allen, a fight in which Punahele was a step behind technically. Punahele relies on nothing but power and lacks advanced techniques like footwork to set up angles and head movement to slip and counter and defend. The game plan against the uber-grappler Maximov will be simple for Punahele, keep the fight standing. Soriano is tough to take down, and if Maximov struggles to relocate the fight to the mat, Soriano will have Maximov looking like Budda Baker real quick.

Nick Maximov is a highly touted undefeated prospect with a 7-0 professional record with five finishes. Although he’s a dynamo on the mat, Maximov’s striking is day one. Homie has two left hands and will be nearly helpless if he can’t get Soriano down. The good news is, Maximov trains with the Diaz Brothers and is probably used to getting his ass cracked on the daily.

Maximov lacks basic combinations on the feet and has difficulty initiating takedowns because he can’t close the distance. He looks anxious on the feet like a kid giving a presentation in front of the class and gets desperate with his shots, often shooting from too far away. Because he can’t earn any respect on the feet, Maximov often shoots Willy Nilly all over the mat like he’s got Bonnie and Clyde cornered.

The value for Maximov is in top control. He’s almost strictly a position over submission grappler and relies on holding his opponents down and clocking control time. The gamble on Maximov is if he can’t score takedowns for fifteen minutes, he’s basically just a doorstop, an elaborate paperweight that won’t score many points on the feet. This type of fighter is always hard to bet for or against because it’s all or nothing. He’ll either dominate with takedowns or get pieced up and dominated on the feet.

There are too many unknowns and holes in Maximov’s game for me to give him the coveted Weekly Knockout stamp of approval. An impressive win against a killer like Soriano would go a long way in changing that, but for now, I’m riding with Punahele Soriano. Punahele Soriano via TKO, round two.

Winner: Punahele Soriano | Method: TKO Rd.2

Shavkat Rahkmonov (-225 ) vs. Carlston Harris (+190 )

Rahkmonov: DK: $9k | Harris: DK: $7.2k

This is an under-the-radar banger, featuring two excellent grapplers with solid stand-up skills. Let me get one thing out of the way first; this dude Carlston Harris howls at the moon. Harris is a Brazilian fighter with excellent wrestling/grappling and nasty submissions, and on his feet, he’s aggressive and throws long wide bombs. He has a professional record of 17-4 and is 2-0 in the UFC with first round finishes against Christian Aguilera and Impa Kasanganay.

Harris has a solid resume outside of the UFC, having competed multiple times in the Middle Eastern promotion Brave FC. If you haven’t heard of Brave FC, it’s the laboratory where they conduct secret human-optimization experiments, breeding armies of world-class fighters that scientists identify and track by assigning them last names ending in “ov” and “aev.”

To say Harris lacks technical ability on the feet is like saying the Dallas Cowboys lack discipline, an understatement. The difference is Carlston Harris can commit fourteen penalties and still walk away with a dub. Harris is a swinger. Not a swinger as in Ramada Inn conference rooms and “clothes are optional” continental breakfasts, but a swinger as in, he just wings punches while running straight ahead to close the distance. His hyper aggression on the feet and relentless forward pressure provide cover for many technical flaws.

Harris shines on the mat and in the clinch. He comes fully equipped with slams, ground and pound, and vicious head and arm chokes, D’arce, Anaconda, arm-triangle, Brabo, any choke that isolates one arm to close off one side of the neck. Harris’s opponent, Shavkat Rakhmonov, is also a solid wrestler/grappler and will be a good test for Harris and a measuring stick for how good Harris really is.

Shavkat Rakhmonov reminds me of Rory McDonald. The two have an upright, almost robotic style on the feet, resembling cyborgs more than humans. Shavkat also sounds like an alias for someone in a cat costume attending a furry convention at the Ramada Inn after the swingers leave and they change out all the furniture.

Rakhmonov has solid takedowns and submission grappling; he’s strong in the clinch and uses the cage to secure trips. Throw up the W. Protect Ya Neck at all times against Shavkat. He hunts for guillotines from any position, especially when his back is against the cage. He’ll use the cage to walk up and secure the choke when you least expect it. This could be one of those times when two grapplers acknowledge a stalemate and spend fifteen minutes slugging it out. If that’s the case, I’d give Harris the edge in being able to cause chaos and finish the fight, but I’d give Shavkat the technical edge.

This is going to be a dope fight; don’t miss it. Rakhmonov is an undefeated fighter with a 14-0 record and has never been to a decision. He has finished all his fights with seven wins via TKO/KO and seven via submission. There’s value for both of these guys, and I’d take a chance on one of them. I think Harris is an early threat to finish the fight, and Shavkat will be a late threat. I’m going to roll the dice with Carlston Harris. I think he will catch Shavkat with something wild and have a good shot at an early finish. Carlston Harris via TKO, round two.

Winner: Carlston Harris | Method: TKO Rd.2

Sam Alvey (+280 ) Phil Hawes Brendan Allen (-365 )

Alvey: DK: Free | Hawes: DK: $9.3k

*Brendan Allen has stepped in for Phil Hawes on late notice. The following remains the same; just replace "Phil Hawes" with "Brendan Allen." Different name, same result.

Man, I love me some “Smilin” Sam Alvey. Unfortunately, in his last seven fights, he has as many dubs as I do, zero point zero. Alvey is 0-6-1, and I know a thing or two about lengthy losing streaks. Un-unfortunately, you could say double unfortunately for Alvey, he’s facing a monster in Phil Hawes. Hawes has stupid power on the feet and high-level wrestling and ground and pound on the mat. This is a terrible matchup for Sam Alvey, and HR has been scheduling a lot of gatekeeper new hires at the Bridge of Death lately, and Sam has seen his hours cut in half; this could be the last time we see him on the schedule. Phil Hawes TKO, round two.

Winner: Phil Hawes Brendan Allen | Method: TKO Rd.2

Tresean Gore ( ) vs Brian Battle ( )

Gore: DK: $8.3k | Battle: DK:$7.9k

This fight was supposed to be The Ultimate Fighter middleweight finals matchup a few months ago, but Tresean Gore was injured, and Gilbert Urbina stepped in to fight Bryan Battle. Battle came from behind in that fight to secure a second-round submission win and walked away with the moniker, The Ultimate Fighter. But, make no mistake; Tresean Gore is the uncrowned champ. There are finishing points written all over this one; there’s little chance it goes the distance. Bryan Battle is the more experienced fighter coming in with a 6-1 professional record, while Tresean Gore is only 3-0 professionally, not counting his fights on the show.

Battle is a long, rangy fighter who uses volume and peppering shots from the outside. He has Limewire download hand speed, the old dial-up connection, and lacks power, but he’s tough in the clinch and is a submission threat on the mat. Bryan Battle has the physique of a Leatherface vest, but don’t let that fool you; he’s a solid all-around fighter, and although he’ll be at a big disadvantage on the feet, he can make the fight grimey and drag Gore into deep waters.

Tresean Gore is a killer, and he crushes a lot. His lead hook is a light switch, and he reminds me of a cross between a smaller Anthony Rumble Johnson and Paul “Semtex” Daley. Gore lacks a solid resume and hasn’t really been tested in his young career, but he has all the looks of having the potential to develop into a high-level finisher. On The Ultimate Fighter, Gore beat Gilbert Urbina to earn a spot in the finals before he got injured. Every time he touched Urbina in that fight, it was the Fourth of July, sparks flying. Gore pulled the power cord on Urbina early in the second round with a devastating counter left hook that left Urbina looking like a Tyron Woodley chalk outline.

I was surprised by how polished Gore’s striking looked on The Ultimate Fighter; he has excellent reactions to strikes, a stiff boxer’s jab, and uses short, basic combinations as a default setting. The question will be Gore’s ground game. Can he defend takedowns, and if he can’t, can he get back to his feet? If he can keep the fight standing, I think it’s only a matter of time until he drops the whammy on Bryan Battle.

I say that to say this; there’s some solid value on Bryan Battle if he can survive early. If he can wear down Gore in the clinch defending takedowns and get Gore’s back late, he can submit Gore. But I’m putting Tresean Gore on wax via TKO, round two.

Winner: Tresean Gore | Method: TKO Rd.2

Steven Peterson (+240 ) Julian Erosa (-300 )

Peterson: DK: $7k | Erosa: DK: $9.2k

Julian Erosa is that doodie you can’t pinch, twerk, or shake off. He’s an underrated savage with twenty-three finishes in twenty-six career wins. You can tell a lot about a fighter by the level of competition they’ve lost to. Spanning two UFC stints, Erosa’s L’s look like this here: Seung Woo Choi, Julio Arce, Grant Dawson, Devonte Smith, and outside of the UFC, the highly touted Paddy Pimblett. All those guys are killers. He has some notable dubs, also: Jamall Emmers, Sean Woodson, and Nate Landwehr.

If you found yourself in the middle of a brawl at Dave & Buster’s, Erosa would be the guy playing skeet ball for tickets that you’d pick out of the crowd to scrap with, thinking you’d duff him out real quick AND take his tickets. Double whammy. Two-birds-one-stone and all that. But, you’d quickly end up as one of the little heads that pop out of the Whack-A-Mole game. Erosa is dangerous because he can compete at a high level anywhere; D&B’s, standing up, sitting down, on the mat, it doesn’t matter. He can choke you out, or he can knock you out. Choose your own adventure.

All that being said, Erosa’s weakness is on the feet. His bread and butter is taking excessive damage and just hanging around and outlasting the opponent. If you can’t finish Julian early, he’ll chip away at you with short hand combos and elbows. Erosa has eleven career TKO/KO wins and twelve by submission. If he’s behind on the feet, Erosa has a plan B and specializes in head and arm chokes.

The key for Erosa against Steven Peterson will be to out-grimey Peterson. Bathe the canvas with nothing but dark hues, and make Peterson second guess if he’s really ready to survive in the obyss, the seedy underbelly. Erosa will be coming in as a heavy favorite and has a ton of value as a finisher; his fights very rarely go the distance, so one way or the other, this one has finishing points written all over it.

Steven Peterson is the guy who beat America’s favorite dweeb, Chase Hooper. Hooper has dangerous submissions and the world’s highest safety rating for his stand-up; his strikes are AAA-Certified harmless. But, this ain’t about Chase Hooper; it’s about the guy who shook him down for his Pokemon booster pack and Birkenstocks, Steve Pete. You gotta watch out for Steve Pete; he’s tough and loves a firefight, inhales the noxious fumes. He’s 3-3 in the UFC, and like Erosa, his L’s have all come to stiff competition.

Overall, Steve Pete is an average fighter, but he’s fearless and will engage Erosa anywhere the fight goes. Pete’s path to victory will be on the feet, where he can lure Erosa into wild 50/50 exchanges and take his chances. Erosa is a slick grappler, and I’d try to avoid the fight going to the mat if I were Peterson. One thing Erosa isn’t: elusive. He tends to take a ton of damage before he eventually bushwhacks a path to victory. Steve Pete can use this to his advantage if Erosa gets careless on the feet.

At the end of the day, when it’s all said and done, in the long run, ultimately, I’m taking Julian Erosa via Brabo Choke, round two. On wax.

Winner: Julian Erosa | Method: Brabo Choke Rd.2

Prelims

Highlighted Fighter

Denys Bondar (-260 ) DK: $9.1k

Denys Bondar will be making his UFC debut and is currently riding an eight-fight finishing streak. Bondar is 14-2 with a one hundred percent finishing rate with ten wins by submission and four by TKO/KO. This guy is an elite submission over position wrestler/grappler with a perfect blend of heavy ground and pound and submission attacks. He has fought in many Russian promotions and was supposed to make his UFC debut last year, but his fight was cancelled.

Bondar fights like his last name is Nurmagomedov. He uses constant forward pressure on the feet and has underrated boxing, and his wrestling is almost unstoppable. I like to compare fighters’ styles, and Bondar's reminds me a lot of the featherweight, Mateusz Gamrot, respectable wrestler striking on the feet, suffocating wrestling, and a grab bag of submissions. Denys has multiple specialties, rear-naked chokes, armbars, and arm-triangles, and he slowly works his way into position with volume striking from the top.

I’ve been looking forward to Bondar’s debut, and he’ll be tested straight out the gate when he faces Malcolm Gordon. Gordon will have a speed and technical advantage on the feet, but the matchup is tailor-made for Bondar to impose his will with his wrestling. Christmas lights in July have better takedown defense than Gordon, and I don’t know if he can survive long on his back against Bondar. This is a good fight to pick up some finishing points.

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

Although the main event picks have been less than stellar lately, I've been making some decent scratch betting against them, most of which have been underdogs. Derrick Lewis, Calvin Kattar, and Francis Ngannou came through as underdogs. Yes, Derrick Lewis was an underdog against Chris Daukaus. It was Christmas getting Derrick Lewis at plus money. What does that have to do with the price of chonies at Walmart? Can Jack Hermannson keep that streak going?

Of all the latest main event underdogs, I like Hermansson's chances of pulling off the upset the least, but he definitely has value and the slick submissions and grinding ground and pound if he can find success with his takedowns. There's definitely a path to victory and Jack tends to just hang around and get stronger as the fight progresses.

On the undercard, there's a grimey scrap between the super veteran Alexis Davis and Julia Stoliarenko. Davis is the big (-220) favorite mostly because of her wealth of experience. Her physical attributes have greatly diminished, and Julia could prove to be a step ahead if she can avoid takedowns.

Jason Witt minus the "en," at (+130) against Philip Rowe has value if he can take down Rowe. A fifteen-minute kickboxing match heavily favors Rowe, but Witt has excellent takedowns and a heavy top game that can neutralize better stand-up.

Carlston Harris at (+190) against Shavkat is also a good look as an underdog. He's unpredictable and wild on the feet and can overwhelm opponents. Shavkat fought Alex Oliveira in his debut and took heavy damage early on the feet, and looked on the verge of being finished. He hung on and scored a second-round finish, but if Harris hurts him like that early, it's a wrap.

Pick 'Em

Miles Johns (-200 ) vs. John Castaneda (+170 )

Winner: Miles Johns

 Method: Decision

Hakeem Dawodu (-190 ) vs. Michael Trizano (+160 )

Winner: Hakeem Dawodu

 Method: Decision

Chidi Njokuani (-110 ) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (-110 )

Winner: Chidi Njokuani

 Method: Decision

Jason Witt (+130 ) vs. Philip Rowe (-160 )

    Winner: Philip Rowe

 Method: TKO Rd.3

Alexis Davis (-220) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (+175 )

    Winner: Alexis Davis

 Method: Decision

Jailton Almeida ( ) vs. Danilo Marques ( )

    Winner: Jailton Almeida

 Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Malcolm Gordon (+195) vs. Denys Bondar (-260 )

    Winner: Denys Bondar

 Method: Arm-Triangle Rd.2

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning