We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko & Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

Main Card

Amanda Lemos (+160) vs Jessica Andrade (-190)

Lemos: DK: $7.3k | Andrade: DK:$8.9k

This is a true David vs. Goliath, New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns matchup. The Goliath, the mythical monster lurking in the woods with freakish physical attributes, is Amanda Lemos. Eyewitnesses—survivors—of Amanda Lemos swear to the existence of a hideously beautiful human concoction, a quilt of flesh and bone sewn together with pieces of Amanda Nunes and Deiveson Figueiredo. Their harrowing accounts have made their rounds among MMA circles for years. Tales of powerful overhand hooks and snap kicks with both legs that would send a football sailing through the uprights well passed the NFL record sixty-six yards.

The David, small in stature but massive in heart, is Jessica Andrade. A No Vacancy sign flashes intermittently in the windows of her soul, warding off any fear that might happen her way. A Witcher, A Geralt of Riva, Jessica Andrade has many times before slain monsters and once claimed the most sought-after reward. This time around, the bounty isn’t what matters. No, this time, it’s about legacy and how far down the hall of greatness her name will echo.

Being undersized is nothing new to Jessica Andrade. It didn’t stop her from picking up and dumping Rose Namajuanas on her head and becoming the UFC Strawweight Champion. Like in almost every one of her thirty-one career MMA fights, Andrade will be at her trademark size disadvantage against Amanda Lemos.

This is essentially a striker vs. striker matchup (Andrade does have wrestling in her back pocket), and the only woman at strawweight and featherweight I wouldn’t give Jessica Andrade a shot to knockout is Valentina Shevchenko. Andrade showed a new style in her recent bouts, carrying her hands low and bobbing and weaving her way into the pocket like a tiny Mike Tyson. Once she weaves her way in, she unloads bombs with both hands. Her aggression on the feet often overwhelms fighters or breaks them down systematically over time.

When she fought Rose Namajunas for the second time, Andrade got off to a slow start but completely took over the second half of the fight. She bullied Rose with pressure and volume and busted Rose open. Rose had to survive to the final bell. Had it been a five-round main event, Andrade would've won that night.

Andrade is coming in off a first-round bludgeoning of Cynthia Calvio, and before fighting Shevchenko, KO’d Katlyn Chookagian in the first round with a body shot. The key for Andrade against Lemos will be movement and pressure. She has to move laterally and never let her feet set while maintaining head movement to get inside of Lemos’s long strikes. Andrade's biggest struggles come against volume strikers, and Lemos averages six significant strikes per minute but rarely uses combinations. Using feints and making Lemos miss will open up avenues for Andrade to navigate inside the pocket and land short combos.

After Amanda Nunes’s recent loss, Amanda Lemos may be the baddest Amanda in the UFC. Pound for Pound Lemos is a top three-power striker in all of women’s MMA. She carries her hands low and throws punches from chest level, shovel hooks that travel upward from the lower peripheral. Her style is like Deiveson Figueiredo’s, using range to unload with long looping overhands. Lemos’s striking speed is a Madden 99, and the first round against Lemos will be the worst five minutes of your life.

At all costs, Jessica Andrade has to avoid the Thai clinch. Lemos has nasty knees similar to the ones Oliveira used to destroy Poirier. Lemos is hyper-aggressive in bursts and looks to cause damage in every position. The key to beating Lemos is surviving the early storm, dragging her into deep waters, and testing her suspicious cardio. Eight of Lemos’s thirteen career fights have ended in the first round, and she’s only heard the final bell three times.

Lemos is the definition of an a la carte one-punch striker; her hands break out in hives when she throws combinations. Instead of using combos, Lemos throws single shots in quick succession and can push the pace without extending exchanges in the pocket. Her right hand is a four-seam fastball, and her special move is a right-hand counter as she slides back just out of range. She also attacks up the middle with vicious snap kicks like vintage Anderson Silva KO’ing Vitor Belfort. Those snap kicks will be a major factor against the 5’2” Andrade, whose head will be teed up for a kickoff that sails out the back of the endzone. Touchback.

The value in Jessica Andrade is a late finish or decision victory while scoring high significant strikes. Lemos’s value will be in a finish within the first three rounds and also high significant strikes should the fight go the distance. At the opening, Lemos is the (+150) dog. Lemos faded late in her most recent bout against Angela Hill and had to survive to the final bell after almost finishing Hill in the first round. Andrade has the style to survive early and push the pace late. That being said, Lemos at plus money is always a good look. She can end any fight at any moment, and her reach and distance management will cause Andrade problems, especially early.

The main event-winning streak sits at two after Belal Muhammad used his Madden 99 fight IQ and excellent lateral movement and well-timed takedowns to neutralize Vicente Luque’s power. Looking at this card, the dogs are going to be barkin’ all night long. I’m feeling froggy today; Amanda Lemos via TKO, round three.

Winner: Amanda Lemos | Method: TKO Rd.3

Claudio Puelles (-110) vs. Clay Guida (-110)

Puelles: DK: $8k | Guida: DK: $8.2k

He’s back. Clay Guida, aka The Missing Link, aka Gypsy Hustle: The Career Continues. Back? Nah, he never left. This will be Clay Guida’s thirty-third appearance in the Octagon. It’s hard to believe that Jim Miller has seven more UFC appearances than Clay Guida; Miller’s next fight will mark his fortieth scrap in the promotion. But this song ain’t about Jim Miller; it’s about Clay Guida and his continued mission to save Americans fifteen percent on car insurance in fifteen minutes or less.

I write this about Clay Guida every time he fights because it’s the realest ish I ever wrote:

“Guida embodies everything romanticized about the sport, heart, perseverance, underdogs, never giving up, everything we all think we are, but we're never willing to test ourselves to find out.”

The term “The People’s Champ” was coined after Clay Guida because he represents the everyday blue-collar man/woman making it big in a world built to keep people like him out. He represents a cog in the wheel, a glitch in the matrix, the truth to the establishment. Guida has never been the most athletic, the fastest, or the strongest fighter, but he’s managed to accomplish what very few in the sport ever do: longevity.

After thirty-two fights of competing against the highest level of competition, Clay Guida is not only still competitive; he’s still winning. Guida is coming into this fight off a win, including two of his last three. He should be riding a three-fight winning streak, but he stopped at a certain Valero gas station in the middle of the Nevada desert after his fight with Mark O. Madsen. Guida was lured by the pre-inflation $2.50 gas and stopped to fill up his Winnebego. You know the rest of the story. Even veterans can fall victim.

Guida’s biggest weapon is his cardio and pushing a pace that few in the sport can match. In addition, Guida is a well-rounded fighter. His Madden ratings would be seventy-fives across the board. As opposed to having any particular attribute rated in the nineties with the rest below fifty. This means Guida can choose paths of least resistance instead of fighting opponents to their strengths. Against Claudio Puelles, Guida’s path to victory will be keeping the fight standing and using his herky-jerky boxing to avoid takedowns.

When it comes to grappling, it’s do-or-die for Claudio Puelles. And his only fear of death is reincarnation. He’s a jiu-jitsu specialist with a stifling top game and heavy intermittent ground and pound. Puelles is 11-2 professionally and 4-1 in the UFC. Six of Puelles’ wins have come by submission, including two by kneebar and one by armbar. Armbars/kneebars are usually set up from the guard and are trademarks of grapplers who like to work from their back. Against grapplers like Puelles, the top position isn’t necessarily advantageous.

The problem for Peulles is he has Jiu-Jitsu takedowns. Much like Mackenzie Dern, Puelles struggles with takedowns. At times, when Puelles shoots, it looks like he dropped a nugg in the garage and is on his hands and knees with a flashlight trying to find it. He looks like my eight-month-old daughter learning to crawl. Puelles doesn’t fully commit to his shots and often tries to pull guard before finishing the takedown.

Then there’s his striking. Puelles is a southpaw with two left hands and is a prototypical Gus Fring striker, missing the entire right side of his body. Puelles relies mostly on left-hand strikes but has respectable power. The key for Puelles will be chasing down Guida, pulling guard, dropping banana peels like its Mario Cart, and doing whatever it takes to get the fight to the ground. His Jitz is nasty and has guided him to a four-fight winning streak.

Zero. Point. Zero. Idea who wins this fight. Guida opened as the (-120) favorite, and that’s a reflection of his ability to stuff takedowns. If Puelles can’t get Guida to the mat, he will struggle in a fifteen-minute kickboxing match. There’s always a ton of value on a grappler with submissions like Claudio Puelles. If this fight ends with a finish, it will likely be because of a Puelles submission. Clay Guida has been submitted ten times in his career; that’s almost half of his twenty-one career L’s. I flipped a coin, and it landed on its edge. One more time… Claudio Puelles via decision. On wax.

Winner: Claudio Puelles | Method: Decision

Maycee Barber (-190) vs. Montana De La Rosa (+155)

Barber: DK: $9k | De La Soul: DK: $7.2k

When she’s on her game, Maycee Barber has some Lando Vannata-like striking of her own. Maycee’s striking is movement-based and allows her to manipulate the pocket to attack and slip and counter. She switches between stances and mixes hand and kick combinations while maintaining a karate-like in/out bounce. But there are huge holes in Barber’s defense; she tends to pull (move her head straight back) too much as her primary means of defense. This brings her chin straight up in the air and may allow her to evade one strike, but extended combinations tend to land.

Also, Maycee has a serious issue judging distance. Sometimes she attempts to engage from way too far away. I mean way too far. Maycee will be standing halfway across the Octagon from her opponent and look like she’s shadowboxing. At first, you think she’s just trying to stay loose between exchanges until you realize she’s actually trying to attack her opponent from fifteen feet away.

Barber is 4-2 in the UFC. Her most recent dub against Miranda Maverick was legally classified as the “fruit of the poisonous tree.” Barber was handed a dub after it was stolen from Maverick at gunpoint at a… you already know. Against De La Rosa, Maycee has to keep the fight standing. Maintain distance without standing clear across the cage and use combinations to keep De La Rosa on her heels.

It’s grappling or bust for Montana De La Rosa. She began her UFC career with three straight submission victories but struggled when she wasn’t able to get the fight to the mat. Striking is a problem for De La Rosa; even when she secures takedowns, she staunchly refuses to throw any strikes. She hunts for submissions with little to no ground and pound or peppering punches to soften her opponents. It’s basically a NAGA grappling match for Montana. Against Andrea Lee, Montana had Lee’s back for almost two full rounds and spent the entirety trying to secure a rear-naked choke to no avail.

Montana’s striking has improved over her last couple of fights, but she lacks the power to pose enough of a threat to open up takedown opportunities. Subsequently, she struggles to take the fight to the mat where she can implement her strength. But when she can relocate the fight, she finishes fights. Eight of De La Rosa’s twelve professional wins have come by submission. In her most recent bout, she showed improvements in her ground and pound and scored her first career TKO against Ariane Lipski.

Against Maycee Barber, Montana has to move forward behind heavy, short combinations and initiate takedowns at all costs. She has to adopt the Khabib method: takedowns, takedowns, takedowns, and when takedowns fail, more takedowns. Barber is a big (-200) favorite, and there’s definitely submission value for De La Rosa. If she can achieve a dominant position, as we’ve seen with Aljamain Sterling and Charles Oliveira, she can finish Barber. But I think Maycee will survive on the mat and have time on the feet to out-point De La Rosa. Maycee Barber via decision.

Winner: Maycee Barber | Method: Decision

Su Mudaerji (+150) vs. Manel Kape (-180)

Mudaerji: DK: $7.5k | Kape: DK: $8.7k

Another banger and wild style matchup. This should be a striker’s delight. I say, “should” because Manel Kape always has excellent offensive wrestling in his fanny pack but never busts it out. After buying all the hype about Manel Kape leading up to his debut against Alexander Pantoja early last year, I attempted a no-receipt return after a terrible performance. The Guest Service representative kindly said I had already used that privilege when I returned Mounir Lazzez just a week before after Lazzez got smashed by Warlley Alves.

Manel Kape was a highly touted UFC acquisition and former Rizin Flyweight Champion but started his UFC career with two straight L’s. Kape has since rebounded and is currently riding a two-fight first-round finishing streak. Kape’s major malfunction in his first two bouts was his lack of output. He just wouldn’t engage and lost two close decisions.

When he’s on his game, Kape has nointy-noine Madden ratings in hand speed, footwork, and takedowns. Some fighters have limited attacks when they switch stances and tend to throw predictable, safe strikes; Kape maintains a full arsenal from both stances, throwing a high volume of kicks with both legs. He freezes opponents in a defensive shell with quick hand combinations and takes advantage of the momentarily obscured vision to step off at angles and land shots they don’t see coming. He has all the tools to challenge for a title someday and was an alternate backup for the flyweight belt before making his UFC debut. That’s how highly touted he is.

Su Mudaerji is a polished striker who will pose serious problems at flyweight if he can develop his ground game. Striking-wise, Su is a master manipulator. The focus of his manipulation is the pocket, making it difficult for him to develop any lasting relationships with fellow fighters. He stays outside his opponents' range with long punches and long-range kicks, crescent and sidekicks, never letting anyone get close enough to get to know the real Su. He maintains continual lateral movement and expeditiously chooses his openings judiciously while keeping his opponents at the end of his strikes. There's no deviation in Su’s punches as they travel from point A to point B in perfectly straight lines, textbook technique.

Su’s weakness is in the pocket. He tends to get caught watching his handy work and exits the pocket passively with his head straight up and hands down. That’s a big hole Kape can take advantage of with combination counters. I have a suspicion that Kape will look to finally use his wrestling in this one. Su will have to keep Kape at the end of his punches and use volume to make level changing difficult.

Manel Kape opened as the slight favorite because he has more tools than Mudaerji. They both average just over four and a half significant strikes landed per minute, and this is a virtual toss-up. Mudaerji is a great look as an underdog and middle-tier roster option. His range and speed will cause Kape problems throughout the fight. But I’m riding with Manel Kape via decision. On wax.

Winner: Manel Kape  | Method: Decision

Alexander Romanov ( ) vs Chase Sherman ( )

Alexander Romanov: DK: $9.6k | Sherman: DK: Free one per customer

They’re not going the distance. They’re not going for speed. They’re all alone, all alone in their time of need. There’s zero chance this fight goes the full fifteen minutes. Alexander Romanov’s original opponent was Tanner Boser. Romanov was a (-550) favorite and I planned on betting the Thunderdome (my one car garage and world class training facility) on Tanner Boser. That went out the window as PC Principal aka Chase Sherman steps in on short notice.

One of two things will happen: 1) Alexander Romanov will storm across the cage, pick Chase Sherman up, suplex him on his head, beat on him, and choke him out with a forearm across his windpipe. Hopefully, Sherman is into that sort of thing. 2) Roman will storm across the cage, pick Chase Sherman up, suplex him on his head, and beat on him until the ref stops it.

Alexander Romanov is 15-0, including 4-0 in the UFC, and will be entering as the massive (-550) favorite. Romanov has finished fourteen of his fifteen professional wins and is hell in fight shorts for the first five to seven minutes. Against Juan Espino, Romanov couldn’t secure the early finish and gassed out like a pale Greg Hardy, only to be saved by an illegal knee and an accompanying Daniel Day-Lewis Master Class performance by Romanov that led to the fight being stopped while Romanov was still ahead on the scorecards. Had the fight continued, Romanov would currently be 14-1.

It thought Tanner Boser would be able to weather the storm and finish Romanov late, but that will not be the case for Chase Sherman. If Boser was a (-380) dog, Sherman should be around the (+1000) range. Alexander Romanov via forearm choke, round two.

Winner: Alexander Romanov | Method: Forearm Choke Rd.2

Lando Vannata (+110) vs Charles Jourdain (-130)

Groovy: DK: $7.7k | Jourdain: DK:$8.5k

This is a banger and the best fight on and otherwise ugly looking card. “Daddy’s Landooooooh, oh, oh, oh-oh”- Yelawolf voice. Lando Vannata is a dope little striker best known for making his debut on short notice against prime Tony Ferguson and almost stopping Fergy in the first round. Ferguson survived and finished Vannata in the second round, but on display was Vannata’s unique artistic striking. Vannata is also known for going to war with King Bobby Green twice, a matchup of two of the more unique strikers in the promotion.

Vannata’s stand-up is intricate, making use of broken cadences and false pocket entries to manipulate the opponent into attacking or covering up. When you watch this fight, pay attention to how Vannata rarely retreats while under attack. He’ll back pivot and counter instead of completely vacating the pocket where he can no longer mount any counter offense. Vannata is a classic joystick striker who can strike while moving in any direction because he strikes naturally from either stance. Add to that feints galore and all kinds of spinning shit.

The best way to describe Vannata is as a flow state striker who freestyles his attacks. Nothing is pre-programmed or rehearsed; he just feels what’s open and attacks. Vannata’s perpetual lateral movement and excellent takedown defense make him an underrated, very good all-around fighter. The key for Vannata against Charles Jourdain will be pressuring Jourdain with volume. Jourdain is a notoriously slow starter and can be overwhelmed early. This fight has split-decision written all over it and will come down to whoever engages first and most often.

Charles Jourdain is the rare fighter who gets stronger as the fight progresses. Cue up the footage of Jourdain literally kicking Andre Ewell’s entire ass in the third round of their fight. Jourdain was howling at the moon as he chased Ewell down like it was a 90s slasher movie. Jourdain is 3-3-1 in the UFC but has faced some stiff competition. His major malfunction in the UFC has been the first round. He’s like my NOLA Pelicans going down by twenty-three points early and trying to mount a fourth-quarter comeback. Wins are hard to come by at this level, and going down 0-1 is a massive disadvantage.

Jourdain is a long striker who can also flow between both stances. Although not as smoothly as Groovy Lando. The low calf kick from either stance is a major weapon for Jourdain and will be critical to slow down Vannata’s movement. Jourdain’s specialty is mixing up his attacks and using every available weapon. He’s tough anywhere the fight goes and has a mean streak that he can activate like he just caught a Super Mario Bros Power Star. When he starts glowing, get the fook outta there; he’ll start slanging hands and feets and elbows and knees all over the place like Oprah giveaways.

I was surprised to see Charles Jourdain open as the (-140) favorite, given Lando’s high-level experience up a weight class at 155. I don’t see a finish for either fighter; they’re both too tough and grimy. Fantasy points will come via significant strikes and possible knockdowns. Jourdain is the higher output striker, averaging over five and a half significant strikes landed per minute, while Lando averages over four and a half. I’m going out on wobbly limbs on this card and going with back-to-back-to-back-to-back dogs. Four underdogs in a row. “Daddy’s” Lando Vannata via decision. Wax on; wax off.

Winner: Lando Vannata| Method: Decision

Prelims

Highlighted Fighter

Tyson Pedro (-650) DK: $9.3k

Tyson Pedro was once lost but now is found. Pedro was last seen navigating a 1937 commercial airliner over a notorious section of the Atlantic Ocean known as the Bermuda Triangle. Many had given up hope for Pedro’s survival over the last four years until he recently washed up on a beach and was discovered by some dweeb with a metal detector.

Before his hiatus, Pedro was a fierce, kill-or-be-killed striker who did just that in every one of his six UFC bouts. Pedro went 3-3 with three first-round dubs. Two of his three L’s came by finish as well. He beat Paul Craig and Khalil Rountree in the first round but was riding a two-fight losing streak before he went AWOL. His last fight was in 2018, a TKO loss to the legend Shogun Rua.

Tyson carries his hands low and throws nothing but bombs. He overwhelms with power, speed, and volume early in fights and has only been out of the first round one time in ten career bouts. The only fight to make it out of the first round was against Ilir Latifi, and Pedro made it to the final bell, losing a decision. Pedro reminds me of a cross between Travis Browne (Mr. Rousey) and Tai Tuivasa. He protects himself with punches and relies on being the first to bomb like track number one of Makaveli’s “The 7 Day Theory.”

Pedro is fighting the often-drowsy Ike Villanueva, who is 18-13 with seven losses by TKO/KO and five by submission. This is a grooved Cal-Ripken-in-the-2001-All-Star-game fastball for Tyson Pedro to tee off on. The amazing thing about Tyson Pedro is that he’s from Australia, and they were able to talk him into getting on another plane to fight in Las Vegas. Tyson Pedro via TKO, round one.

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

Last week I hit on Andre Fialho but talked myself into splitting my Andy Jack on Fialho and Lina Lansberg. Since I started writing this, the odds for many of these fights have drawn closer. At one time, I had four underdog picks in a row. Now some of those odds are close to even. Sometimes, you gotta bust out the Jacksons early in the week at the opening to get the best odds. I got Claudio Puelles at plus money early in the week, but now that fight is a straight pick ‘em at (-110).

Anywho, once again, the main event will provide a viable underdog in Amanda Lemos at (+160). Her best chances to win the fight will come early and tapper off as the fight progresses. But those first ten minutes will be very dangerous for the undersized Jessica Andrade.

Su Madaerji (+150) will cause Manel Kape all kinds of problems on the feet. Su is long and fast and maintains an aggressive output throughout the fight. Kape’s first two UFC fights were disappointments because he failed to show urgency and lost both fights not because he wasn’t the better fighter but because he got outworked and gave away close rounds. If Kape doesn’t utilize his wrestling, this will be a close competitive fight to the final bell.

Looooooooong shot: Jordan Wright (+150) has a Rexkwondo karate style and throws wild spinning shit all over the cage. His major malfunction is that he is as durable as single-ply Parks and Rec toilet paper and tends to fall apart as the fight progresses. He’ll have an early shot at catching Marc-Andre Barriault with a heat rock before Barriault tries to take Wright down and grind him out.

Pick 'Em

Jordan Wright (+150) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (-175)

Winner: Marc-Andre Barriault

 Method: Decision

Dwight Grant (+100) vs. Sergei Khandozhko (-120)

Winner: Sergei Khandozhko

 Method: Decision

Tyson Pedro (-650) vs. Isaac Villanueva (+410)

    Winner: Tyson Pedro

 Method: TKO Rd.1

Qileng Aori (-240) vs. Cameron Else (+190)

    Winner: Qilen Aori

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Preston Parsons (-170) vs. Evan Elder (+150)

    Winner: Preston Parsons

 Method: Decision

Marcin Prachnio (-125 ) vs. Philipe Lins (+105)

    Winner: Marcin Prachnio

 Method: Decision

Dean Barry (-1400) vs. Mike Jackson (+700)

    Winner: Dean Barry

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning