We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko & Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

WTF happened last night…

Last week, like an episode of Undercover Boss, I chronicled the past six months of Conor McGregor’s life working as a Civil War reenactment actor after having his leg amputated back in January by Dustin Poirier. Little did I know how prophetic that tale would turn out to be.

I tried to tell anyone who would read what happens when you land a low kick on the knee. Your shin breaks. And you become paranoid anytime you’re within ten feet of a welcome mat. You stop breaking your spaghetti in half before cooking it. That sound… Contrary to popular belief, there’s no half-price discount when buying shoes; they’re always sold in pairs, no exceptions.

All that aside, it was surreal watching the sport’s most polarizing athlete succumb to such a devastating injury just weeks after Chris Weidman did the Laffy Taffy two-step against Uriah Hall. I’ve now seen this injury occur four times while watching a fight live, and they all have one thing in common; they all occurred after throwing a naked low kick with no setup.

After seeing multiple slo-mo videos, maybe Conor didn’t land a kick on the knee. It appears Conor compromised his leg in the closing seconds of the round. The injury likely occurred when Conor threw a snap kick, and Poirier deflected the kick with his forearms. Conor’s lower leg looked to bend inward upon contact and gave out when he tried to push off on it when he and Poirier exchanged left hands—both nearly missed KO punches during that final exchange.

So what’s next for McGregor? Is this the end? I can’t imagine him going out like that, and talk of a fourth fight with Poirier is already underway. But I don’t see that fight ever happening again. Poirier cracked McGregor’s ass like a Miami building foundation up until that point, and you can put it on wax now, Poirier will beat Charles Oliveira to win the belt, making a title fight against a Conor McGregor coming off two straight L’s anything but justifiable. But McGregor vs. Poirier 4 makes more dollars than it makes sense, so who knows? Diaz vs. McGregor 3 seems to be the most reasonable option.

Before we move on, I’d like to give a special Weekly Knockout shout-out to Kris Moutinho. He made his UFC debut on short notice against a top contender in the division and consumed a steady diet of Killer Instinct 450-punch combos like Joey Chestnut for nearly fifteen minutes. Like I said on Twitter, I hadn’t seen a beating like that since the movie Showgirls came out on VHS, and my parents left me home alone. Now, on to the next one, Thiago Moises vs. Khabib Jr., aka Islam Makhachev.

Thiago Moises (+450 ) vs. Islam Makhachev (-700)

Moises: DK: $6.8k, FD: $ | Khabib Jr: DK: $9.4k, FD: $

Islam Makhachev will be the Lightweight Champion. The only question is, how long will the inevitable be delayed because everyone in the top ten is ducking him? Literally, every fighter in the top ten without a fight already on the books turned down a fight with Makhachev before the number fourteenth-ranked Thiago Moises said, “I’m your huckleberry.”

Islam Makhachev is Khabib’s heir apparent. It is known around the Khabib camp that the only reason Makhachev isn’t already the champion at lightweight is that he was waiting patiently for Khabib to decide he was tired of being the champ. Spoiler alert; now that Khabib is retired, Islam Makhachev wearing the belt is all but a foregone conclusion. A fight against Rafael Dos Anjos late last year never materialized and likely would have fast-tracked Mackhachev to a title shot, but, instead, he fought Drew Dober last March. Islam dominated the fight, scoring a third-round submission win, but it did little to catapult Makhachev up the rankings.

When it comes to dominant wrestling/grappling, the comparisons to Khabib are numerous for Makhachev. Islam's takedowns are relentless and never-ending, and his top pressure is crushing. The key to Khabib’s top pressure isn’t using his arms to control fighters; it's his legs. I watched an instructional where Khabib explained he uses his legs from the top to squeeze the opponent like a vice grip, and few fighters can use the technique because their legs aren’t conditioned to squeeze for long periods. Khabib said Luke Rockhold and Islam Makhachev are the only other fighters he has trained with who can use the same technique.

The major difference between Khabib and Makhachev is pressure. Islam doesn’t have the suffocating forward pressure on the feet that Khabib does. Khabib backs fighters up without even throwing any strikes. Makhachev doesn’t have that menacing presence on the feet, and his only real weakness is lack of output, lack of output on the feet, and the mat from the top position. He’s a position over submission grappler, and he doesn’t use the same aggressive ground and pound as Khabib.

On the feet, Makhachev has the skills to survive with anyone. He’s a southpaw with heavy power in his dominant side strikes, including a nasty left-round kick. But, he doesn’t engage enough. My man will go on a Laker-like scoring drought without throwing a strike for minutes at a time. Islam wins fights with superior takedowns and top control and using panic and desperation against his opponent to advance position and hunt for chokes. A&E featured Islam Makhachev on the season finale of Hoarders because he stockpiles control time like Jeff Bezos does wealth.

The best way to describe Thiago Moises is that he’s in trouble. His best skills are on the mat, but they aren’t on the same level as Makhachev’s skills on the mat. Moises is going to have to land an Our Father prayer on the feet to win. He has prototypical wrestler striking, complete with big power in his hands and rear-leg round kick. Thiago’s arsenal consists mostly of two basic combinations, the 1-2 (jab-cross) and the 3-2 (cross-hook). There’s not much deviation from those combos; he’s a lot like the first time you ever played Street Fighter and didn’t know which buttons did what or how to do a Hadouken.

But Moises has KO power in both hands, especially in his hooks, and his stand-up style reminds me of Gilbert Burns. Moises also likes to cover-and-return counter, looking to catch the opponent exiting the pocket passively or with his hands down. This technique could be costly against Makhachev, who will change levels as soon as Moises covers up. Moises’s path to victory is keeping the fight standing as long as he possibly can while taking calculated risks engaging with power strikes. There will come a time when Moises will have to get desperate and risk giving up the takedown and being submitted to have any kind of chance of winning. His only means of victory is by a TKO/KO.

The main-event-winning streak now sits at two and includes eleven of the last twelve. If Thiago Moises wins this fight, the upset would approach Matt Serra vs. GSP—the biggest upset of all-time—levels. Thiago Moises has never been finished in noineteen career fights, and the only question is, will Makhachev be the first? I say yes. Islam Makhachev via rear-naked choke, round four.

Winner: Islam Makhachev | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.4

Marion Reneau (+120 ) vs Meisha Tate (-145)

Reneau: DK: $8k, FD:$ | Tate: DK:$8.2k, FD:$

Meisha Tate hasn’t fought in five years; she retired from the sport in 2016 after briefly holding the bantamweight belt when she beat Holly Holm in miracle comeback fashion. Meisha is an OG in women’s MMA and became known over the years for gritty, grimey wrestling style.

In the fight against Holly Holm, Tate was picked apart for twenty-three minutes, unable to relocate the fight to the mat. But with only a minute and a half remaining, she took advantage of a Holm mistake and got her to the ground. She wasted no time getting Holms back and submitting her with a rear-naked choke. Her grappling made her the only possible formidable foe for Ronda Rousey early in Rousey’s career. She lost twice to Ronda.

Tate’s biggest weakness was—and likely still is—her striking. Meisha has economy hands, seven to ten-day delivery, and half the time, they don’t even make it to their final destination. She carries her head at full mast straight in the air without even a slight breeze to sway it in the slightest. The only thing I expect from Tate against Marion Reneau is not much. Who could have an idea how Tate will look after a five-year absence from the sport?

Marion Reneau is the Tom Brady of MMA. If Tom Brady didn’t have any Super Bowl titles. And if Tom Brady never won any MVPs. Basically, she’s the same age as Tom Brady, forty-three years old.

Reneau has fought a who’s who list of fighters since her UFC debut in 2015, the early years of women fighting for the promotion. The list: Holly Holm, Raquel Pennington, Cat Zingano, Sara McMann, Yana Kunitskaya, and Jessica Andrade. Her overall record, 9-7, may not be overly impressive, but the fact that she’s still competing at the highest level and has never been finished in her career is impressive.

A solid all-around fighter, Reneau can compete anywhere the fight goes, but against Tate, the easiest path to victory will be on the feet. She has tight, technical kickboxing but lacks power. Marion will look to establish her range on the outside and hit Meisha with peppering shots while making it difficult for Meisha to close the distance and level change. Reneau has finished eight of her noine professional dubs, five TKO/KO’s, and three submissions. But she’s riding a four-fight losing streak, her last win coming in 2018, an impressive triangle choke submission win over Sara McMann.

If I’m playing Fantasy Russian Roulette, I’m hoping neither one of these fighters are in the chamber. Both are the equivalent of being dealt a seven-two offsuit if one of them does end up face down on the table in front of you. I can’t see a finish for either fighter, and significant strikes may come at a premium. Marion Reneau via decision. Wax on, wax off.

Winner: Marion Reneau | Method: Decision

Jeremy Stephens (+175) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (-225)

Stephens: DK: $7.6k, FD:$ | Gamrot: DK: $8.6k, FD:$

Jeremy Stephens has long been a fan favorite since 2007. I knew Stephens was a long-time UFC veteran, but I didn’t realize he’s made thirty-three appearances inside the Octagon. His overall UFC record won’t wow you, 15-17-1, and he’s lost consecutive fights five times and is currently 0-4-1 in his last five bouts. But dig this, Stephens’s last five opponents have been Kalvin Kattar, Yair Rodriguez (twice), Zabit Magomedsharipov (easier to spell than it sounds), and Jose Aldo. That’s a Suge Knight lineup, Death Row.

Little Heathen has been a mainstay in the UFC because of his willingness to go out on his shield and his unwillingness to avoid taking heavy damage in the process. Jeremy stands in the center of the Octagon and exchanges with anyone placed in front of him; he shows zero respect in that regard to any and all fighters. He throws every strike at one hundred percent, and maybe that comes as a detriment to his success, but at the same time, it’s also the crux of it. Simply put, Stephens has Dim Mak power and can KO anyone in the division if he catches them.

Stephens throws mostly hooks and overhands and compliments his boxing with heavy above-the-knee and low calf kicks. His major malfunction, Stephens drops his hands every time he engages and Bear Grills camps in the pocket. That’s a drowsy combination. Jeremy also tends to attack straight up the middle every time and fails to mix up his cadences to provide different looks. On occasions, Lil Heathen will switch stances as he moves forward, throwing power punches with both hands, similar to how Michael Chandler KO’d Dan Hooker.

Against Mateusz Gamrot, Stephens will have to strap on the headgear and hope he doesn’t look like me (similar to a Ken doll) in a singlet. Stephens will have to wrestle his ass off against Gamrot. This guy Mateusz Gamrot has some of the quickest level changes and double-leg shots you’ll see in MMA. If he lays a finger on you, you’re going down. He’s especially handy with the low ankle pick, which he can initiate from outside the pocket and cover a lot of distance. The ankle pick is especially tricky to defend because there’s a mental aspect on behalf of the defender. When someone grabs your ankle, your first thought is, “There’s no way this guy is taking me down with this ish. I’ll just pull my leg out—“ And then you’re on your ass.

Gamrot chain wrestles, stringing techniques together while achieving angles to finish the takedowns. For example, he’ll initiate the ankle pick then turn it into a single leg, and then turn the single into a double, turn the corner, and drive the opponent to the mat. However, Gamrot would make a terrible poker player; he has a major tell. He uses both stances but only shoots for takedowns out of the southpaw stance. When he’s in the orthodox stance, he’s committed to kickboxing and is far less likely to shoot from that stance.

Dan Henderson, as I’m writing this, it hit me; Gamrot reminds me of a smaller Dan Henderson. He has big power punches and is dangerous on his feet, but he’s not a smooth, polished striker with crisp combinations. He can hang with most strikers and be successful, but the elite ones in the division will Wayne Brady him real quick, take his ham sammich, and leave him on the curb. “What’s this? Mr.Franklin’s lonely.”

If Stephens can keep the fight standing for long stretches and get back to his feet when Gamrot takes him down, this will turn into a banger real quick. Jeremy Stephens’s value is always in his ability to end any fight at any moment and pull out a dub no matter how large the deficit is. Gamrot’s value is in takedowns and top control, and the ability to decide where the fight takes place is always the biggest advantage. On wax, Mateusz Gamrot via decision.

Winner: Mateusz Gamrot | Method: Decision

Rodolfo Vieira (-220 ) vs Dustin Stoltzfus (+175)

Vieira: DK: $8.7k, FD:$ | Stoltzfus: DK: $7.5k, FD:$

Rodolfo Vieira has the cardio of The Biggest Loser runner-up. He has the gas tank of a Tesla. Vieira gets gassed after throwing the glove touch. It might be the worst cardio in the sport’s history. The title of Missy Elliott’s hit “One Minute Man” would have to be changed by about fifty seconds if Vieira adopted the anthem for his ring entrance music.

I say that to say this: Vieira is as decorated a Jiu-Jitsu player as there is competing in MMA. He has world championships stacked on top of world championships and made his MMA debut in 2017. Vieira is 7-1 but is coming off a loss in his most recent bout to Fluffy Hernandez, who weathered an early storm before Vieira gassed out and literally just stood there letting Hernandez punch him in the face. Vieira looked like those Karate mannequin punching bags that look like an actual human.

That’s it, that’s all I got for Rodolfo Vieira. If he were 50 Cent putting out a new album, it would be called Get Sub Or Die Trying. He’s either going to score an early takedown and submission, or he’s going to gas and wake up in the back by the Craft Service station serving as an elaborate platter display.

Dustin Stoltzfus has been around for a long time. In 1983, he won the Kumate, defeating Chong Li in the finals, and in 1989 he avenged his brother’s death when he defeated Tong Po in a bare-knuckle Muay Thai bout with his hands dipped in glue and glass. Okay, that wasn’t Dustin Stoltzfus. Turns out I don’t know much about him. He has one appearance in the Octagon against Kyle Daukaus and spent much of the fight pressed against the cage or on his back. Unnamed sources say he’s a wrestler with some sneaky submissions from his back. His stand-up has to be better than Vieira’s, so I’ll give him the edge there. His path to victory is holding his breath for a really long time if Vieira gets hold of his neck.

This fight is a true gamble. You're either betting on Vieira scoring a first-round submission or betting on Stoltzfus’s lung capacity to get him out of the first round. I’ll take the latter on a complete toss-up. Dustin Stoltzfus via TKO, round two.

Winner: Dustin Stoltzfus | Method: TKO Rd.2

Gaberiel Benitez (-175 ) vs Billy Quarantillo (+145)

Benitez: DK: $8.5k, FD:$ |Quarantillo: DK:$ 7.7k, FD:$

We might have to start using a rating system for fights to measure the potential for a shin break during the bout. Gabriel Benitez is a Civil War surgeon specializing in leg amputations. In his bout against Omar Morales, Gabriel’s shin was split wide open from kicking Omar’s legs over and over again. It didn’t deter Gabriel from continuing to throw them, though. Benitez is a southpaw with decent hands and excellent rear-leg kicks. He throws his left leg like an Oprah giveaway and uses it to open up his hands. Benitez has been in the UFC since 2014 and has amassed a 6-4 record with four finishes.

This will be a fight of two halves. Billy Q is a slow starter, a BDSM fighter who thrives on physical punishment, and he will likely have to stage a mid to late comeback. I anticipate Gabriel Benitez coming out and taking control of the fight early with well-timed leg kicks, but Billy Q will hang around and start chipping away before finding a way to steal the fight.

A young killer, Quarantillo, has an excellent all-around game, with deceptive one-punch striking. His strikes are a beat short of being considered combinations; they’re more like successive one-punch strikes with little dead air between them. More than anything, this guy has heart and finds his way out of bad positions constantly. The problem is, he finds himself in bad positions constantly. But he scrambles well and strikes from the bottom. He throws everything with power and never stops moving forward, usually breaking his opponent’s will slowly.

Quarantillo uses a high output and turns the fight into a true mixed martial arts contest with takedowns and slick grappling. Benitez will want to keep the fight standing and try to slow Quarantillo’s pressure early with calf kicks. Benitez is coming off a win against Justin Jaynes, while Billy Q is coming off a loss to the very tough Gavin Tucker. I think Billy can slowly chip away and break Benitez and has a good shot at finding a late finish. Benitez is a finisher with eighteen stoppages in twenty-two career wins. He’s particularly handy with the guillotine choke. Billy Quarantillo via TKO, round three.

Winner: Billy Quarantillo | Method: TKO Rd.3

Prelims

Highlighted Matchup

Daniel Rodriguez (-265) vs. Preston Parsons (+210)

D-Rod: DK: $8.8k, FD:$ | Parsons: DK: $7.4k, FD:$  

Joe “Stitch ‘Em Up” Schilling recently made Instagram news when he duffed out an inebriated patron at an Outback Steakhouse. Of course, the Truly's didn’t bother to inform the drunk ish talker about the identity of the guy he was bumping his gums to all night, and he got starched with a quick one-two but was already splayed out as a crime scene chalk outline before the two had a chance to connect. Anywho, Joe Schilling is Daniel Rodriguez’s head trainer and Rodriguez shares his Sensei’s short fuse and love for violence.

D-Rod is a southpaw with and awkward delivery and dynamite in his left hand but is almost exclusively a kickboxer with limited wrestling/grappling in his arsenal. Rodriguez is coming off a dominant win against Mike Perry, who had success early taking down Rodriguez but inexplicably abandoned the tactic after the first round. All Daniel Rodriguez fights are bangers and this one should be no exception.

Preston Parsons will be making his UFC debut on short notice and will enter the cage as the (+180) underdog. I was able to find some of Parsons’s regional footage, and he appears to have highly developed all-around skills. He won’t be a Kris Moutinho entering the cage against Sean O’Malley.

Parsons has tight wrestler striking and tends to rely on his right hand to initiate exchanges and cover distance. I love fighters who use standing elbows in combination with their hands, and Parsons uses stabbing elbows in close quarters to penetrate the opponent’s guard. His default setting is to throw combinations and rarely throws one strike at a time, but his combos are repetitive with a heavy reliance on the 2-3 (cross-hook). Preston uses his combinations and forward pressure to level change when opponents cover-up and all noine of his career wins have come via submission. He prefers chokes and armbars, and without seeing much of his game, I’d have to give him the edge in wrestling/grappling.

There’s definitely value on Parsons if he sticks to a takedown-centric game plan and doesn’t get stuck brawling with Rodriguez. My hesitation for Parsons is the level of competition he has faced; he’s only fought Chef Boyardee cans that offered little resistance when crushing them to redeem their CRV’s. I think the chances of a finish are high for this one, D-Rod with an early TKO/KO and Parsons with a submission. I’m terrified of heights but love climbing out on limbs. Preston Parsons via decision, on wax. Never mind, the level of competition Parsons has faced bothers me. Daniel Rodriguez via TKO, round three.

Winner: Daniel Rodriguez | Method: TKO Rd.3

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

I struck out looking on an 0-2 count last week with Ryan Hall. What you saw wasn't the Imanari Roll he is known for; that was some kind of drunken barrel roll with VR goggles on.

There's something about Preston Parsons at (+210) that I can't shake. If he can get Rodriguez to the mat with consistency, he can control enough of the fight to win a decision. We just don't know enough about him. At (+120), Marion Reneau is dripping with value facing a Meisha Tate who hasn't fought since 2016. And Jeremy Stephens at (+175) is a good look with KO power from bell to bell. But I think I'm rolling with Billy Quarantillo (+145). He makes fights ugly and hangs around and has cardio for days, and I've never really been impressed with Gabriel Benitez's hands.

Pick 'Em

Amanda Lemos (-525 ) vs. Montserrat Ruiz (+365 )

Winner: Amanda Lemos

 Method: TKO Rd.2 

Khalid Taha (-160 ) vs. Segey Morozov (+130 )

Winner: Khalid Taha

 Method: Decision

Miles Johns (-185 ) vs. Anderson Dos Santos (+150)

Winner: Miles Johns

 Method: Decision

Francisco Figueiredo (-310) vs. Malcom Gordon (+240)

    Winner: Francisco Figueiredo

 Method: Decision

Alan Baudot (+265 ) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento (-350 )

    Winner: Rodrigo Nascimento

 Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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