We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

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That's first ballot.

Belal Muhammad (+215 ) vs. Leon Edwards (-275)

Muhammad DK: $7.2k | Edwards: DK: $9k

Before I get started, let me address the prone Aljamain Sterling in the room. Last Saturday night was like my Super Bowl, and when the stakes were at their highest, I came through with a Brady-like performance. I was high off nostalgia. It felt like I was reliving my 90’s childhood and playing NBA Jam on Sega Genesis with the Always On Fire Game Genie cheat code. I couldn’t miss. When Kai Kara France came back in incredible fashion to score a first-round TKO, I sensed something special was in the air.

My picks were the equivalent of pulling the fire alarm and stealing the teacher’s answer key from his/her desk when they left the room. If it weren’t for Petr Yan wresting defeat from the hands of certain victory and gifting Aljamain Sterling the most suspicious title in UFC history, I would have only tasted defeat twice on a fifteen-fight card. I’m not saying Aljo was faking, don’t get me wrong, I’m just saying Nate Robinson and Curtis Blaydes got up quicker than he did.

To cap the night, I turned a Jackson into a Grant after hitting on my Twenty-Twen-Twen sleeper, Jan Bachowicz. Much like the Poirier vs. McGregor fight, I put my money where my mouth wasn’t and dropped some scratch on the fighter I picked to lose; they call that a win-win. Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned going 7-1-1 the previous week… Okay, okay, I’m done. Just a little victory lap, but I know this is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately game, and we have another massive card warming up in the on-deck circle with the donut on the Louisville Slugger.

Some people may have looked at this weekend’s main event and thought, who vs. who? I don’t blame you; it’s a rare matchup between a top-five guy (who hasn’t fought in nearly two years) and a just-cracked-the-top-fifteen guy. What’s ironic, though, is that the original matchup featured an even larger gap in the rankings when Khamzat Chimaev was scheduled to face Leon Edwards. Chimaev is fighting a case of Covid that forced him to drop the fight for the third straight time, and Belal Muhammad steps in, making the most of the momentum he gained from a big win against Dheigo Lima just a couple of weeks ago.

Leon Edwards has been an inside joke among hardcore MMA fans for the better part of a year. He’s been ranked in the top five, currently sitting at number three, for a while now but hasn’t been able to get a fight. A scratched fight due to the pandemic against Tyrone Woodley last year was the beginning of a string of bad luck for Edwards. Subsequently, his name was dropped from the rankings due to inactivity. Then there were more canceled fights and, finally, a late replacement in Belal Muhammad, and here we are.

Leon Edwards’s career highlight reel doesn't feature devastating KO’s, slick submissions, or all-out classic back and forth wars, but Leon is one of the most fundamentally sound fighters in the UFC. Edwards is well-rounded with very few holes in his game. He has tight, technical kickboxing and sneaky good wrestling/grappling from the top and bottom. His output isn’t high, but his striking is accurate, and he utilizes textbook fundamental kickboxing combinations—ones and one-twos punctuated with round kicks. When Leon throws kicks, he doesn’t fully commit with his hips. Instead, he whips it from the knee, making it quicker to the target; they may lack power, but they’re sneaky.

Edwards’s wrestling/grappling makes him special, and his attention to the small details sets him apart. Striking on the break from the clinch or a failed takedown attempt is an intricate veteran attribute. Think about the first Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier fight and how Cormier KO’d Stipe with a short hook on the break after a brief tie-up. A successful takedown attempt isn't always measured by whether the fighter gets the fight to the mat or not. It’s also an excellent way to close the distance and land strikes on the inside in the clinch. Also, many fighters tend to relax, feel a sense of relief when they defend a takedown and get lazy on the break. Leon will make you pay with elbows and knees off the clinch.

From his back, Edwards has an active guard and uses his legs well to stand up with his feet on the hips and sweeps from the butterfly guard. Although his takedown defense is spotty, Edwards shows urgency from the bottom and scrambles to his feet well. That will come in handy against a strong wrestler like Belal Muhammad.

Calf kicks will also come in handy. Muhammad could barely walk after the Lima fight two weeks ago; Lima attacked Muhammad’s lead relentlessly, the resulting damage made a quick turnaround for Muhammad questionable by his own account. One or two kicks to an already compromised leg could spell big trouble for Belal.

People are dozing, mid-afternoon napping on Belal Muhammad. Belal is 9-3 in the UFC and has won eight of his last noine fights; his only losses have come to elite-level strikers like Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque. Muhammad has always been a strong grappler, but his striking has improved dramatically since his debut in 2016.

Trigger Warning: Belal Muhammad is a better striker than Leon Edwards.

Yeah, I said it. It’s not as optically pleasing as Leon’s, but Belal’s output is twice that of Leon’s, and his overall pressure is far more stifling. The diversity of strikes Belal implements is better than Leon’s as well; Belal attacks the body with combinations and changes levels mid combination and never stops moving forward. I’ve talked about the black outline inside the Octagon, the warning track; Belal loves to force fighters to engage on the warning track with little room to maneuver along the cage.

Leon is the more athletic, quicker striker, but Belal uses his jab better and moves his head off centerline and rolls off punches when he strikes, things Leon doesn’t do well. The threat of the takedown allows Belal to use level change feints to set up overhands, and he rarely throws single strikes; he’s a BOGO (buy one get one) wholesale striker who stays busy even when he’s not getting the better of the exchanges. However, Belal tends to slip strikes almost exclusively to his right, which against a southpaw is ducking right into their power side punches and kicks.

Belal has the rare ability to make takedowns effective even when defended. He doesn’t get discouraged. Watch any fighter from Khabib’s camp (Islam Makhachev last weekend), and you’ll see them relentlessly committed to takedowns no matter the outcome of the previous attempt. Belal turns a double leg attempt into a body lock, then into the clinch, where he can dirty box on the inside. Against Dhiego Lima, Belal wasn’t successful in landing a takedown until the final minute of the fight, but he forced Lima to defend them for the entire fifteen minutes and wore him down over time.

This is the battle of 18-3 records. When it comes to your Fantasy roster, you’re going to have to count on points without the aid of a finish. Neither fighter is a finisher; Belal only has two finishes in twelve bouts inside the Octagon, and Edwards has three in twelve bouts. Belal has to protect his already compromised lead leg from calf kicks, and both fighters need to force the other to defend second-level strikes, strike numbers three, four, and five, and not stop pursuing after one or two.

The big question is how Edwards will look after nearly a two-year layoff, but I think he will do enough to earn a close decision win. Muhammad opened as the (+210) dog, and you already know that’s right in my sweet spot for betting on underdogs. Belal is as live an underdog as you can get, and you may see his name elsewhere on this newsletter. Leon Edwards via decision.

Winner: Leon Edwards | Method: Decision

Misha Cirkunov (-135 ) vs Ryan Spann (+105)

Cirkunov: DK: $8.3k | Spann: DK:$7.9k

Writers use a technique called foreshadowing, subtle subtexts that provide hints to the conclusion. When executed correctly, foreshadowing can add a dramatic effect to the climax of a story. All six of Misha Cirkunov’s most recent fights have ended in the first round, and during that stretch, he has gone 3-3. Cirkunov is a one-round warrior and grappling dynamo. He times power double legs that look more like the Goldberg Spear, waiting for his opponent to engage so he can change levels and shoot. If/when Misha gets you to the mat, you’re gonna have a bad time.

To all my young readers: Back in the day before GPS, there were these things called maps, a company called Thomas Brothers made them, and everyone had one folded away in their glove compartment. If you didn’t have one, you’d have to stop and ask for directions and would likely end up in a Texas Chainsaw remake. Misha Cirkunov has a roadmap to the mount that he follows after securing top position and rarely deviates from it. He’ll pass to half-guard with distracting strikes, then go to side mount, where he’ll look to pin one arm with his legs in a half crucifix position. If he can’t secure the far side arm with his head, Cirkunov will go straight to the mount and use the opponent’s desperation to escape to hunt for chokes. He caught the very tough Jimmy Crute in a Peruvian Necktie (Google that) in his last fight.

Ryan Spann’s Thomas Brothers path to victory is on the feet. Cirkunov has a ton of power on the feet but only operates one strike at a time. Most of Cirkunov’s strikes are one-and-done power shots. Spann is a huge, one-punch power striker as well, but he has more technical, traditional kickboxing, using short basic combos and kicks. He prefers controlled exchanges on the feet and doesn’t do well in a firefight with chaos surrounding him. Now that I think about it, Spann’s standup is like a more technical Greg Hardy with similar one-punch KO power.

Spann likes to implement wrestling in his game plan, using the cage to drag the opponent to the mat. His open mat takedowns aren’t nearly as effective as when he gets your back against the cage. If I were in Spann’s corner, I’d advise him to avoid wrestling/grappling with Cirkunov, but if he finds himself on his back, he’s very good at getting back to his feet.

Spann’s issue is his low output and unwillingness to engage for long stretches. He also doesn’t use his reach very well and allows shorter fighters to get inside on him too easily. But when he commits and attacks aggressively, it’s a wrap. If Spann can increase his output, I think he has enough grappling in his back pocket to survive early and take over on the feet. Ryan Spann via TKO, round… one.

Winner: Ryan Spann | Method: TKO Rd.1

Dan Ige (-110) vs. Gavin Tucker (-120)

Ige: DK: $7.8k | Tucker: DK: $8.4k

*Fight Of The Night*

Banger. This is a definite fight of the night candidate. Gavin Tucker is a killer, a serial killer hiding murder material in a cereal box on top of your stereo. Tucker has become a fast-rising star over his last three fights, and a win over Dan Ige would send his stock on a GameStop trajectory.

An excellent striker, Tucker mixes traditional Muay Thai and kickboxing techniques and has seasoned veteran reflexes under fire. Muay Thai is the art of eight limbs—for those of you counting your limbs, hands, elbows, knees, shins—and Tucker uses every single one to inflict damage whether standing, in the clinch, or on the mat. He manages the pocket well, has a continual output, and throws short combos almost exclusively.

Tucker has the ground game and takedowns to match his high-level striking. He has a similar commitment to his takedowns that Belal Muhammad has, stringing together multiple attempts and rarely gives up on them. If Gavin gets you to the mat, it’s Choke City, Utah. Guillotines and Rear-Nakeds are his specialties.

All you need to know about Dan Ige is that he was originally scheduled to face Ryan Hall, a leg lock specialist who most fighters refuse to fight. When that fight fell through, he agreed to fight Gavin Tucker on relatively short notice; he’s an any-time-any-place type of fighter who doesn’t just declare it on Twitter.

Ige is mostly a boxer with round punches and no fear of getting caught in a firefight. He has excellent lateral movement until he doesn’t. Early in fights, Dan moves around and is light on his feet, but somewhere along the way, he becomes static and more stationary. When he dawns the yellow jersey and stays circling on his bike, Ige is very dangerous as he is deceptively quick at closing the distance. He likes to time his opponents, lowering his head and trading wide hooks at the same time as them.

Bodywork is an underutilized technique in MMA, but Ige understands its importance. He attacks with body-head and head-body combinations and remains defensively responsible with a high hand guard. My advice to Gavin Tucker would be to attack Ige whenever he switches to southpaw. Ige fakes the funk. When he switches, it’s mostly for show, like the bathroom towels you’re not actually supposed to use.

Neither fighter has ever lost by a finish in their careers, but Ige has fought Edson Barboza (a suspicious win) and Kalvin Kattar, two fighters far better than anyone on Tucker’s resume. I like Ige as a mid-tier Fantasy option, and he’s probably the chalk pick to win the fight. But, I enjoy perilously climbing out on limbs. Gavin Tucker via decision; on wax.

Winner: Gavin Tucker | Method: Decision

Davey Grant (+240 ) vs Jonathan Martinez (-310)

Grant: DK: $6.9k |Martinez: DK: $9.3k

Davey Grant is awkward, like trying to wipe southpaw; if you’re not careful, you’ll end up with a mess on your hands. His striking is oddly effective yet technically deficient. Ol Davey just wades into the pocket with naked kicks and stiff, wide punches while his chin waves defiantly in the air at full mast. He doesn’t care, though, and neither should you. Jack Hermansson, that’s it, that’s who Davey reminds me of, a smaller Jack Hermansson.

Jonathan Martinez should win this fight. He’s the far superior striker with excellent round and teep kicks, and he’s coming off an impressive decisive win against the once highly touted Thomas Almeida. Martinez’s only major malfunction is his output. From time to time, he inexplicably goes long stretches with little offense. If he stays aggressive throughout, I like his chances to score a finish. Johnny is a southpaw and has nasty leg kicks, and uses standing knees to counter aggressive pressure.

This will be a fun matchup, especially if it stays standing for its duration. On wax, Jonathan Martinez via TKO, round three.

Winner: Jonathan Martinez | Method: TKO Rd.3

Manel Kape (-140 ) vs Matheus Nicolau (+110)

Kape: DK: $8.7k | Nicolau: DK: $7.5k

Manel Kape’s UFC debut against Alexander Pantoja last month was a huge disappointment. I attempted a no-receipt return on Manel Kape after that fight, but the Guest Service representative kindly said I had already used that privilege when I returned Mounir Lazzez in January. Kape rolled into the Octagon with a square of cardboard and a boom box on his shoulder. He thought he was there to stomp the yard and spent two rounds dancing around instead of fighting. I guess that was a mulligan, and this will be take two.

If this were Madden 2021, Manel would have ninety-noine ratings in hand speed, footwork, and takedowns. Some fighters have limited attacks when they switch stances and tend to throw predictable, safe strikes; Kape maintains a full arsenal from both stances and throws a high volume of kicks with both legs. He freezes his opponents in a defensive shell with quick hand combinations and uses the momentarily obscured vision to step off at angles and land shots that they don’t see coming. He has all the tools to challenge for a title someday, but he has to use them.

Matheus Nicolau is making his re-debut after a 3-1 stint with the UFC that ended in 2018. He has an excellent 15-2 record and was originally set to face a predominant wrestler in Tagir Ulanbekov. Nicolau has quick, short combinations and explosive, unpredictable techniques like flying knees and spinning attacks coming out of left field. Same-hand combinations are infrequently used and require superior hand speed. Elite boxers like Canelo Alvarez used same-hand combinations often. An example would be throwing a jab followed by a liver shot, then going back upstairs with a hook, and all with the lead hand. Nicolau uses these types of combinations while remaining defensively responsible, his right hand never leaving his face.

As I write this, the odds for this fight have yet to be released, but I would assume Nicolau will be a sizeable underdog, and if that’s the case, he’s definitely a live dog. If he ends up as a low-tier Fantasy cap hit, swoop him up. He’s active and never stops moving. But I’m taking Kape to come out and make amends for his debut performance and be far more aggressive. Manel Kape via decision.

Winner: Manel Kape | Method: Decision

Eryk Anders (+150 ) vs Darren Stewart (-185)

Anders: DK: $7.3k | Stewart: DK: $8.9k

This is an undercover banger. Darren Stewart is a strange fighter; he almost wins every fight after throwing away two-thirds of it. His last fight against the 2020 MVP, Kevin Holland, ended with him in full mount dropping bombs on Holland, and if the round had been fifteen seconds longer, Stewart would have finished the fight. The first two rounds, he spent not throwing any strikes and getting his ears boxed in. Stewart has stupid power and is never out of a fight unless you sleep or tap him.

Early in his career, Eryk Anders was a promising prospect. He won an NCAA title with the Alabama Crimson Tide playing linebacker under Nick Saban. He had excellent wrestling and crafty striking with sneaky power. I speak of Anders in the past tense because I haven’t seen the athletic, aggressive Eryk Anders in a long time. The loser of four of his last six bouts, Anders desperately needs a dub and is more than capable of winning this fight, but I don’t think he will.

If you break this Fantasy game down to its very basics, it’s about finishes, and Darren Stewart provides the best chance of scoring one. Darren Stewart via TKO, round two.

Winner: Darren Stewart | Method: TKO Rd.2

Prelims

Highlighted Matchup

Angela Hill (-380) vs. Ashley Yoder (+290)

Hill: DK: $9.4k | Yoda: DK: $6.8k  

Judges have robbed no fighter in combat sports more than Angela Hill. Against Claudia Gadelha, Angela Hill was held up at gunpoint with Ryan Lochte in a Valero restroom. Four months later, lightning struck twice. After a GPS malfunction, Hill ended up at the same Valero and was shaken down once again by the same judges against Michelle Waterson. You can’t make this stuff up.

Overkill Hill is just below the elite level in the strawweight division but is a tough-out for anyone. She has well-rounded skills standing and on the mat. Angela’s hands are long and fast, and she throws them by the baker’s dozen. Like her teammate, Dominick Cruz, Hill has excellent perpetual lateral movement and creates angles to initiate strikes.

Even if she lived in Houston right now, Ashley Yoder’s tan would be in mid-summer form. She may never hold a UFC title, but she’ll always have the best tan in MMA. Yoder’s a striker with decent grappling and mostly stays competitive by utilizing superior output. There’s a glaring lack of power in Yoder’s striking, but she stays busy, much like Yana Kunitskaya. It’s no different on the mat; she’s capable of scoring takedowns and stays busy with peppering strikes, strikes that add up on Fantasy scorecards.

In the majority of Ashley’s losses, she was held down and out-grappled/wrestled. She’s better from the top position than from the bottom, but she can force scrambles and has never been finished in fourteen pro fights. She also hasn’t finished a fight since Obama was President.

I think this is the perfect fight to get Angela Hill a dub. She’s better than Yoder in every category. If she can adjust her pace to finish the fight as emphatically as she starts it, she should avoid any judges perpetrating Robert De Niro in the movie Heat. Angela Hill has gone over one hundred significant strikes landed in a fight seven times in her UFC career, and averages nearly six per minute. Yoder lands just under three significant strikes per minute. You already know what it is, Angela Hill via decision.

Charles Jourdain (-260) vs. Marcelo Rojo (+200)

Jourdain: DK: $9.1k | Rojo: DK: $7.1k  

This fight should feature all the bells and whistles, back and forth exchanges on the feet, and technical scrambles and submission attempts on the mat. Marcelo Rojo is making his UFC debut and is opening as a live (+215) underdog. He makes his way to the UFC via South America’s premier promotion, Combate Americas, which is similar to the Middle East’s Brave CF promotion when it comes to producing plug-and-play fighters ready to compete at the UFC level. When you see fighters debuting from these promotions, you know they have relevant fight experience.

From what I’ve seen of Rojo, he appears to have technical, aggressive Brazillian-style kickboxing and takedowns in his back pocket. The standup will be very even between the two, but I think Jourdain will have the advantage on the mat. Rojo is susceptible to chokes (arm-in and guillotines), and Jourdain is quite handy with them and hunts for them continually.

Charles Jourdain is a little like Kyler Phillips, who upset Song Yadong last weekend. Jourdain has high-level striking and went toe-to-toe with Andre Fili and fought to a draw against Joshua Culibao after nearly getting finished in the first round. A southpaw, Jourdain has a fight-changing left hand and throws a variety of kicks with a high output that he maintains for the duration.

This fight will be one of the standouts on the prelims. Charles Jourdain has a one hundred percent finishing rate, all ten professional wins coming via stoppage, and Rojo has an eighty-seven percent finishing rate, ending fourteen out of sixteen professional bouts before the final bell. Take a shot on one of these guys. If Jourdain can get the fight to the ground, I think he can find a choke late or maintain enough top control to win a decision. Charles Jourdain via arm triangle, round three.

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

This card is filled with potential upsets. As you know, I love the (+210) to (+250) range. That odds range consistently features sizable dogs with real potential to win the fight. Last week, I hit on Jan Blachowicz, and the main events have consistently provided live dogs. This week is no different. I'm dropping the ol' Jackson on Belal Muhammad, and at (+240), I'm dropping a ten spot on Davey Grant. If Grant decides to wrestle and use his ground game, he can steal this fight.

I play low stakes, fives, tens, and twenties; I'm a budget gambler. Even when I have a strong gut feeling, I rarely bet more than twenty. Anything more, and Mary Jane nags me, reminding me of all the fun we could have had with the money I lost.

Pick 'Em

Rani Yahya (-300 ) vs. Ray Rodriguez (+230 )

Winner: Rani Yahya

 Method: Guillotine Rd.2

Nasrat Haqparast ( ) vs. Don Madge Rafa Garcia ( )

Winner: Nasrat Haqparast

 Method: Decision

Cortney Casey (+125 ) vs. J.J. Aldrich (-155 )

Winner: J.J. Aldrich

 Method: Decision

Gloria De Paulo (-190) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+155)

    Winner: Gloria De Paulo

 Method: Decision

Matthew Semelsberger (-125 ) vs. Jason Witt (-105 )

    Winner: Jason Witt

 Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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