We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Main Card

“You either retire early as the champion or fight long enough to become a knockout meme.” - Unknown MMA newsletter contributor circa 2021.

Alistair Overeem (+150 ) vs. Alexander Volkov (-180)

Overeem: DK: $7.6k, FD: $18 | Volkov: DK: $8.6k, FD: $21

Alistair Overeem is nearing the light at the end of the tunnel.  He’s traversed these corridors before, but this time it’s different.  For decades Overeem has played Ding-Dong Ditch at the pearly gates, each time catching the Divine Spirit slippin’ and unable to catch him in the act before he’s halfway down the street.  Modern scientists explain away Overeem’s near-death experiences, attributing them to the pineal gland and its release of N, N-Dimethyltryptamine, or DMT.  Not including his professional kickboxing career, Alistair has been KO’d fourteen times, making him a leading expert on the subject.

After each of his most recent bouts, Overeem has made it clear that this is his last run, his final attempt to wear the only championship belt from a major organization that has eluded him, the UFC Heavyweight Championship.

Maybe a take on Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown is in Overeem’s post-fight future.  A show in which he explores the mythology of prescient dreams in all the places around the globe that he’s been put to sleep, but he’s hoping to delay shooting the pilot episode for just a couple of more fights. 

This weekend, The Reem will look to keep his title run alive when he faces the unimposing, yet very dangerous, Alexander Volkov.  Alistair is a legend; there’s no GPS alternative route around it.  His career spans into the late ’90s and includes sixty-five professional MMA bouts.  The Reem has acknowledged that from now on, a loss at any point likely ends his career.  Longevity in prizefighting is a rare phenomenon; Overeem has achieved it by adapting and evolving from a pure kickboxer to a true mixed martial artist.

Much like Glover Teixeira, Overeem has morphed into a wrestling-dominant fighter as his striking skills have diminished.  Against Augusto Sakai in his last fight, Alistair found himself a step behind in the striking and down two rounds heading into the third.  Late in the third, he scored his first takedown, and in the fourth, he pappy’d Sakai, then scored an early fifth-round TKO.  He punished Sakai with brutal ground and pound after scoring multiple nifty rolling single-leg takedowns.

The Reem will have to bring the creative takedowns and pocket entries against Alexander Volkov.  His standup is now mostly defense-first and consists of standing well outside the pocket, out of range while looking for opportunities to blitz and close the distance behind wide power punches.  Often, he’ll switch step into the southpaw stance or the orthodox stance and close with big overhands.  Overeem wants to clinch up against the cage and work trips and single-leg takedowns.  The half guard and side mount are dominant positions for Overeem; he hasn’t had a submission win since 2009 as he prefers to end fights with ground and pound.

Alexander Volkov is a long kickboxer who uses his reach well and has experience fighting big power punchers and neutralizing them.  He’s 6-2 in the UFC and was ten seconds away from 7-1 when Derrick Lewis KO’d him with a Hail Mary right hand in the waning seconds of their fight.  His only other loss was to Curtis Blaydes, a fight that was continually interrupted by the FCC due to borderline NC-17 content.  The boring affair featured Curtis Blaydes scoring takedown after takedown, to the tune of fourteen total, and maintaining less than professional top control for the duration.

Volkov has excellent long striking, using his jab and front snap kicks to the body to control range.  The same snap kicks that Conor Mcgregor failed to use even once against Dustin Poirier, Volkov used to score a TKO victory over Walt Harris in his last fight.  They not only help establish distance but are also devastating body strikes that accumulate damage.

The fight is simple for Volkov; stay on his feet.  The fact that he was taken down fourteen times against Blaydes shows that he can scramble back to his feet, but that’s also time spent not scoring any offense.  Volkov uses very short basic combinations and works well off his jab, and if he can force Overeem to get desperate and rush in for takedowns, he can find an opening to finish The Reem.

The Fantasy value for Overeem comes in the form of finishes; eight of his last nine victories have come via TKO/KO, including his last four.  He’s a moderate output striker and will likely score the majority of his significant strikes from the top position after takedowns.  Volkov has reached over one hundred and twenty significant strikes three times in his UFC career.  He definitely has fight-ending potential as well, and Alistair has shown a diminished chin.  Alright, who wins?  Coin flip… best two out of three… Alistair Overeem via TKO, round four.

Winner: Alistair Overeem | Method: TKO Rd.4

Cory Sandhagen (-400 ) vs Frankie Edgar (+300)

Sandhagen: DK: $9.4k, FD: $23 | Edgar: DK:$6.8k, FD: $8

If Frankie Edgar finds a way to win this fight, he’ll be on the verge of a title shot in his third different weight class and cemented as one of the all-time greats.  Although I thought Edgar lost his most recent fight against Pedro Munhoz, he looked as close to his 2010 self as he has in years.  His hand speed was on display once again, and his output was nonstop.  The knock against Frankie has always been his lack of power.  Once again, it will be a huge detriment in this contest as it has been throughout his career against elite competition.

Edgar’s ability to seamlessly transition from striking to wrestling and his perpetual lateral movement has been his trademark and the keys to his sustained success over the last decade.  He’ll need every bit of all that against Cory Sandhagen.  Footwork will be crucial for Frankie; he’ll have to navigate his way through Sandhagen’s long reach and into the pocket behind his jab and short two to three-punch combinations.  Like committing to the run to open up play-action and the passing game in the NFL, Frankie will have to commit to his wrestling and takedown attempts even if they aren’t immediately successful.

This is a near-impossible task for my man, Frankie.  Cory Sandhagen is championship caliber and, at twenty-eight years old, may not even be in his prime yet.  He made a fight against Marlon Moraes look like a throwback episode of Pros vs. Joes.  The Sandman put on a Master Class of distance management and blending both stances into diverse and unpredictable attacks.  The end for Moraes came after Sandhagen hid a spinning wheel kick to the head behind a jab.  

Cory Sandhagen started his UFC career by winning five straight before being submitted by Aljamain Sterling last June in just over a minute.  He made a mistake early in that fight by giving up his back against the cage, and Aljo capitalized by sinking in a rear-naked choke with the quickness.  The win opened the door for Aljo to challenge Petr Yan in Yan’s first title defense in March. 

Like the great Chuck Liddell, Cory fights with his hands low and tends to take a lot of unnecessary damage.  He crouches in his stance and likes to bait opponents into counters by sticking his head out, trying to elicit strikes that he can pull back on and counter.  On the mat, he has a decent ground game with an active guard, in which he creates scrambles and can use submission attempts to get back to his feet.  At a thirty percent success rate, Sandhagen’s takedown defense isn’t great.  He mostly relies on staying outside the pocket to discourage any attempts.

This will be the second time in a row that I pick against one of my favorite fighters.  I’m rolling with Sandhagen.  His striking is too long and diverse for Edgar.  If Frankie can’t get this fight to the ground, it could turn into a long, short night for him.  Frankie will have trouble getting inside on Sandhagen, where he can mount a consistent offense and threaten with takedowns.  Cory Sandhagen via TKO, round two.  On wax.

Winner: Cory Sandhagen | Method: TKO Rd.2

Alexandre Pantoja (-138) vs. Manel Kape (+110)

Pantoja: DK: $8.3k, FD: $16 | Kape: DK: $7.9k, FD: $14

*Fight Of The Night *

Banger.  This could be a contender for fight of the night.  Alexandre Pantoja is 6-3 in the UFC with wins against Brandon Moreno, Wilson Reis, and Matt Schnell, and lost a competitive decision to the reigning champ, Deiveson Figueiredo.  Pantoja’s striking is respectable, but he shines on the mat and has offensive Jiu-Jitsu from the top position and guard.  Chaos, Pantoja embraces it and can finish the fight standing or on the ground; in twenty-two career wins, Pantoja has eight submissions and eight TKO/KO’s victories.   

Pantoja is a power puncher who loads up on everything he throws.  He lacks intricate skills like utilizing footwork and head movement to create angles and advanced setups for his power strikes.  But, Alexandre bites down on his mouthpiece and wades into the pocket with wide punches and times his opponents to counter and throw at the same time.

Manel Kape is a sleeper free agent acquisition for the UFC.   He fought noine times for the Japanese promotion, Rizin.  Kape won the flyweight title in his most recent bout for Rizin in December of two thousand nineteen, and he’s riding a three-fight TKO/KO winning streak.  

Side note: in the early UFC’s, fighters were allowed to wear wrestling shoes during the fight; in the Rizin promotion, this is still allowed.  Kape would roll into the ring with Crocs on during his Rizin bouts, whoop someone's ass, and dip. This can be a decided advantage when it comes to traction in the ring and protecting the foot when kicking.  That will be an adjustment worth noting in this fight.

Speed is the sports world’s most prolific serial killer, the H.H. Holmes, the Jack the Ripper; Kape has plenty of it.  If this were Madden 2021, Manel would have ninety-nine ratings in hand speed, footwork, changing levels, and shooting takedowns.  Some fighters have limited attacks when they switch stances and tend to throw predictable, safe strikes; Kape maintains a full arsenal from both stances and throws a high volume of kicks with both legs.  He freezes his opponents in a defensive shell with quick hand combinations and uses the momentarily obscured vision to step off at angles and land shots that they don’t see coming.

I don’t think you can go wrong with either fighter on your roster, and Alexandre Pantoja is the safe bet here, and if you’re anticipating a “but,” here it is, but there is a ton of value for Manel Kape as the underdog in this fight.  Kape was a weigh-in alternate on multiple occasions to challenge for the flyweight belt in 2020… Manel Kape via decision.

Winner: Manel Kape | Method: Decision

Cody Stamann (-400 ) vs Askar Askar (+300)

Stamann: DK: $9.2k, FD: $22 | Askar: DK: TBD, FD: TBD

Cody Stamann is the Malt-O-Meal Michael Chandler, like Fruity Dyno-Bites instead of Fruity Pebbles; there’s a difference, it’s slight, but they’re still bomb, especially when in the company of Miss Jane.  All he’s lacking is Chandler’s crazy hand speed and life-altering right hand. 

Andre Ewell was Stamann’s original opponent, and the matchup was a guaranteed banger.  Instead, Askar Askar is stepping in on five days' notice and will be making his promotional debut.  All I know about him is that his name looks like a typo, like it needs a comma to be grammatically correct.  Askar, Askar. 

Take Cody Stamann.  Stamann isn’t much of a finisher, and Askar has an impressive 11-1 record, so this will likely go the distance.  Cody Stamann via decision.  Look for him to dominate with top position and score some solid significant strikes and control time.

Winner: Cody Stamann | Method: Decision

Diego Ferreira (-125 ) vs Beneil Dariush (+100)

Ferreira: DK: $8.2k, FD: $15 | Dariush: DK: $8k, FD: $15

This is the rematch that no one asked for, the original taking place in 2014.  Both fighters have greatly improved and are now inside the top fifteen in the rankings.  Beneil Dariush won the first fight by decision with three takedowns and controlling large stretches with top control.  The fight featured excellent grappling exchanges as both are Jiu-Jitsu blackbelts.

The southpaw vs. southpaw matchup favored Dariush, who took advantage of Ferreira’s lead leg with low kicks much like Poirier did to McGregor.  Dariush’s striking has improved dramatically since the first meeting, while Ferreira remains a wide power puncher whose main objective is to close the distance and score takedowns.

Diego Ferreira needs to find his own takedowns this time around.  His top game is solid with creative back-takes, and he has excellent leg dexterity like BJ Penn.

Beneil is the better striker and fights long with a fight-ending left hand that he throws from left field.  He won his last fight against Scott Holtzman via first-round spinning backfist and is riding a two-fight KO winning streak.  Across the cage, Ferreira stands undefeated since 2015.  That year he lost to the Lightweight Jr. GOAT, Dustin Poirier, and hasn’t caught an L since.

I don’t see why this fight would play out any differently than it did almost seven years ago.  Dariush is just slightly better in every category, and as a slight underdog, Dariush is a steal.  Ferreira is coming off a second-round submission victory over Anthony Pettis and has a long shot at a finish against Dariush but, there’s that “but” again, I don’t see that happening.  Ferreira is the higher output striker, especially in recent fights.  But Beneil’s been knocking people out in recent fights, but, but, Ferreira has only been finished once in nointeen fights, and that guy also KO’d Conor McGregor.  Beneil Dariush via decision.

Winner: Beneil Dariush| Method: Decision

Prelims

Highlighted Matchups

Michael Johnson (-225 ) vs. Clay Guida (+175)

Johnson: DK: $8.8k, FD: $19 | Guida: DK: $7.4k, FD: $11  

Michael Johnson is the man who hurt Khabib Nurmagomedov. Similar to when Shane Mosely briefly hurt Floyd Mayweather with a right hand, Michael Johnson staggered Khabib ever so slightly with a left hand in the first round.  That fight ended badly for Michael Johnson, but it highlights a weird career for the man with a salty record of 19-16.  For eight years, he was the last man to beat Tony Ferguson, he has a KO victory of Dustin Poirier, and he had Justin Gaethje all but finished in the first round of Gaethje’s UFC debut.

Clay Guida is in the Fan Favorite Hall of Fame, a unanimous inductee.  He embodies everything romanticized about the sport, heart, perseverance, underdogs, never giving up, everything we all think we are, but we're never willing to test ourselves to find out.  Since 2006, Guida has fought hard to be taken seriously and shatter the role that typecasted him after his success appearing as the Geico caveman for several years.

Guida’s style can never be duplicated; it’s perpetual movement personified; his striking is erratic, sporadic, dramatic, and traumatic if you’re not prepared for his pace.  He bobs and weaves, weaves and bobs, bounces and skips, and is overall just unpredictable.  Cardio, Clay weaponizes it, and his superiority is usually so great that it can close skill gaps.

Look for Guida to get this fight to the ground as often as he can and for Michael Johnson to fight for his life to stay on his feet.  Johnson needs to make Clay dodge a minefield of jabs and one-twos from outside the pocket to keep him at bay.  Clay could be a solid lower-tier addition to your Fantasy roster if he can score takedowns.  But, as I mentioned earlier, life’s greatest assassin, speed, is difficult to overcome, Michael Johnson with the golden shoes via decision.

Winner: Michael Johnson | Method: Decision

Devonte Smith ( ) vs. Justin Jaynes ( )

Smith: DK: TBD, FD: TBD | Jaynes: DK: TBD, FD: TBD

Somebody will be auditioning for the coveted Sleep Number Mattress commercial at the end of this one.  It’s likely to be Justin Jaynes, but don’t sleep on him, pun intended.  Jaynes goes for it without hesitation and has a knack for landing his lead left hook and finishing people.  

Devonte Smith is 10-2 with nine TKO/KO’s, and for better or for worse, six of his last seven fights have ended in the first round.  He's fast and explosive but won't impress you with his volume.  Khama Worthy ended Smith's six-fight winning streak in 2019, the last time Smith was in the Octagon.  But overall, Devonte is 3-1 in the promotion.

Depending on your budget, both of these fighters should be in play for a roster spot, but Justin Jaynes will be more of a stretch.  Either way, this is an undercover banger.  Devonte Smith via TKO, round one.  On wax.

Fighters to Consider

Timur Valiev (-350 ) DK: TBD, FD: $16

Timur Valiev was on the wrong end of possibly the biggest upset in 2020.  He was the MMA embodiment of the Atlanta Falcons against my Dallas Cowboys.  Valiev looked like a dynamo straight out the gate and all but finished Trevin Jones, a late replacement.  Like the Falcons blowing a 29-10 halftime lead, Valiev watched the onside kick travel to the forty-yard line without jumping on it.  He went on to get KO’d midway through the second round in stunning fashion.

All that being said, this guy pushes one of the highest paces you’ll see.  He utilizes every tool legally permitted inside the cage.  Valiev was one of the UFC’s recent free agent acquisitions like Manel Kape, and he will be looking for redemption against Martin Day.  I think Valiev finds a finish in this one and likely early.

Youssef Zalal (-250 ) DK: $9.1k, FD: $20

Youssef Zalal is a late replacement and is facing a tough test in Seung Woo Choi.  Zalal is that dude, an up and coming, young highlight reel.  Flashy striking techniques with solid wrestling and grappling, that’s Zalal in a shell’s nut.  He’s 3-1 in the UFC, but despite his dominance, has yet to record a finish in the Octagon.

Zalal is coming off a tough loss to a straight killer, Ilia Topuria, a fight in which Zala was taken down and dominated on the mat the first two rounds.  He came on late in the third with his own ground attack but ran out of time.  I think Zalal can get this fight to the ground and out grapple Choi for long stretches with a distant shot at a late sub. 

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

I'm off to a good start with my underdog sleeper picks in 2021. I've hit on two of three, both at (+250). On the last card, I all but picked Dustin Poirier to shock the world, but I backed out late.  However, I did drop a twenty-twen-twen on him, and he paid off.  I came close to dropping a half-century mark, but again I talked myself out of it.

Unfortunately, there are no real big sleepers on this card with a great shot at pulling off the upset. But, Beneil Dariush and Manel Kape as underdogs both have a ton of value; I'll be dropping a Jackson on each of them and, as always, let the chips fall where they may.

Pick 'Em

Michael Rodriguez (-260 ) vs. Danilo Marques (+200 )

            Winner: Michael Rodriguez

 Method: Decision

Timur Valiev (-350 ) vs. Martin Day (+275)

            Winner: Timur Valiev

 Method: TKO Rd.1

Devonte Smith ( ) vs. Justin Jaynes ( )

Winner: Devonte Smith

 Method: TKO Rd.1

Karol Rosa (-225) vs. Joselyne Edwards (+175)

    Winner: Karol Rosa

 Method: Decision

Molly McCann (-163) vs. Lara Procopio (+130)

    Winner: Molly McCann

 Method: Decision

Seung Woo Choi (+175) vs. Youssef Zalal (-250)

    Winner: Youssef Zalal

 Method: Decision

Ode Osbourne (-196) vs. Jerome Rivera (+174)

    Winner: Ode Osbourne

 Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves. 

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy. 

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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