We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko & Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

For the first time, Mackenzie Dern is getting the Weekly Knockout main event treatment, the trademark luscious superlatives, fuchsia prose, and Socrates analogies. Chances are she’s beside herself, looking like Kevin Garnett after winning the 2008 NBA chip. Dern represents the highest level of Jiu-Jitsu in women’s MMA, and if you check out her Wikipedia page, you’ll sprain your thumb scrolling past all her Jiu-Jitsu titles before you even get close to anything about her MMA career. I got to thinking; Mackenzie and I have something in common, albeit to vastly different degrees. Jiu-Jitsu changed our lives.

I’m not by any means John Snow, the bastard son of Tony Robbins, true heir to the inspirational speaking throne, BUT… I have some advice that can change your life too. Take a Jiu-Jitsu class. Just one.

What can you expect to experience during your first Jiu-Jitsu class? You can expect your whole world to change. From then on, you’ll walk on a tilted axis, one set off-kilter by new angles and perspectives on life. You’ll find out within the first ten minutes, during warm-ups, everything you thought you knew about yourself was a lie. It was all nothing but unsubstantiated claims that crumbled immediately under the scrutiny of peer review. The shock will set in quickly. You won’t believe how uncoordinated you felt trying to do barrel rolls and shrimps across the mats. When warm-ups end, drilling begins.

You're already gassed. All the times you clowned professional fighters in the same condition from the comfort of your Ikea futon come to the forefront of your mind. You wish you could go grab a White Claw from the fridge right now, but a man twice your size is sitting on your chest. They call it the mount. You give your body instructions, but it doesn’t listen. The Bluetooth connection between your mind and body is weak and keeps breaking, along with your confidence. The clock mocks you. Still twenty minutes left of class.

Time for free-roll. Now come the weapons of mass destruction that reality has been hiding away undetected in the vast uninhabitable desert of your mind. You find out immediately that you don’t react the way you thought you would or the way you hoped you would under pressure. You panic; your vision becomes distorted, your memory fractured. You’re left only with feelings of helplessness to reflect upon for the days to come.

It feels like mercy granted when class finally ends. There were at least a dozen times you thought about quitting, walking out the front door. Why not? You’d never see these people again anyway. But you didn’t. And from the ruins of your ego, the seeds of humbleness sprout then blossom into pride. You did it. A new understanding: If you can get through this and fight off every impulse to quit along the way, the probability of coming across something you can’t do in this world is a single round digit.

Being humbled is a two-pronged experience: First is embarrassment and doubt. The second is acceptance and growth. From this moment on, “what if’s” become “what now’s.” Doubt is replaced by wonder, and wonder is a symptom of an open mind. Suddenly, possibilities and new experiences are everywhere. You find yourself with multiple new fulfilling hobbies and interests that used to be uncharted shaded areas on your life’s level map.

Hyperbole? Prove me wrong. Take a Jiu-Jitsu class. And tune in this Saturday night to witness it in practice at the highest level when Mackenzie Dern attempts to stake a claim at a title shot when she faces the Muay Thai specialist Marina Rodriguez.

Main Card

Marina Rodriguez (+140 ) vs Mackenzie Dern (-170)

Rodriguez: DK: $8k | Dern: DK:$8.2k

Whether in the Abu Dhabi world championships against the monster, Gabby Garcia, a woman twice Mackenzie Dern’s size, or inside the Octagon under the banner of the three greatest letters in sports, U-F-C, Dern has competed at the highest level for most of her life.

Fear is the mind-killer.

You won’t find an ounce inside Mackenzie Dern’s. Whatever her shortcomings as a fighter are, she makes up for them with unwavering aggression and suffers no reluctance to risk it all on every exchange. Dern’s standup doesn’t match her grappling prowess, and she will be at a severe technical disadvantage against Marina Rodriguez, but that won’t stop Dern from going forward behind overhand haymaker after overhand haymaker. She's able to overcome her lack of technique and survive on the feet against better strikers because she’s aggressive and throws nothing but bombs. Mackenzie has that Cujo in her, that junkyard dog that loves violence, and all of her fights are bangers.

Early in her UFC career, she was a grappling oxymoron. She had an excellent ground game but struggled to get it there. The absence of traditional wrestling techniques in her arsenal caused her to abandon takedowns early in fights. Subsequently, she would relent to kickboxing matches with four-ounce gloves against better strikers. But that has changed in her most recent performances. She no longer relies solely on Judo-specific throws from the clinch as her primary means of relocating the fight. Now she works step-through single legs and chain wrestles into clinch takedowns if the first attempt fails. Dern has also developed enough competence on the feet, so she doesn’t have to get desperate and telegraph her takedowns.

Once she gains top control, all limbs are in peril. Dern has diverse submission attacks and can sub you from head to toe. She attacks kneebars and ankle locks, armbars and Kimuras, and chokes from every position. The underrated part of her ground game is her ground and pound. Mackenzie throws heavy Donkey Kong hammers to open up avenues to pass and advance to dominant positions. Watch Dern control the head when—yes, when—she gets Rodrigues to the mat. Dern uses head control to break the opponent's posture and cut through the guard into side control.

The key for Dern will be selling out at all costs to get the fight to the mat. She will have to wade through a minefield of strikes from Rodriguez to do so and will have to pick her moments wisely to blitz Rodriguez and close the distance. Most importantly, Dern must adopt the Khabib mindset: Never abandon wrestling no matter what.

Marina Rodriguez is an overachiever with some big-name wins already on her UFC resume. She has wins over Tecia Torres, Amanda Ribas, and most recently, Michelle Waterson and debuted in 2018. Her lone loss came to another elite grappler and former champion, Carla Esparza.

This is the truest meaning of a grappler versus striker matchup. Rodriguez is known for her aggressive Muay Thai. She combines fast long hands with punctuating round kicks and steady forward pressure. Marina will chase you down with Killer Instinct eighteen-punch combos and is the definition of a combination striker. Straight punches beat round punches. Dern is a round-puncher while Rodriguez is a down-the-middle straight-puncher. Straight punches travel less distance and reach the target quicker and accentuate a fighter’s hand speed. The most common defensive mistake is retreating in a straight line. Mackenzie is prone to making this mistake and will allow Rodriguez to follow her with never-ending barrages of left-rights. Rodriguez is good at trapping opponents against the cage with extended combinations; Dern will have to limit how often she fights with her back against the cage, and look to draw out Rodriguez’s aggression for level changes.

The key to the fight for Marina Rodriguez is her jab and keeping it active from the outside. She has a tendency to become right-hand dominant and predictable. Leading with the right hand requires a big commitment to close the distance, which leads to over pursuing and making yourself vulnerable to takedowns. Rodriguez has to close the distance with jabs and footwork and patiently work her way into extended combinations. If Rodriguez can’t stay on her feet in the early rounds, it could be a quick night for her.

Spice enhanced Mentat ability—the mere thought of a takedown— is usually sufficient to get Rodriguez to the mat. The trade-off to throwing long combinations is leaving your hips open and your opponent ducking under your strikes. Rodriguez’s signature win was her second-round TKO of the highly touted Amanda Ribas. In the first round, Ribas dominated Rodriguez with top control, and Rodiguez failed to display much ability to get back to her feet. But Ribas showed no urgency in the second round to recreate her success on the mat and ran into a right hand that changed everything.

This is one of the toughest main events of the year to pick. This fight could easily be dominated by either fighter if fought within the boundaries of their respective field of expertise. On the mat, it’s all Dern. On the feet, it’s all Rodriguez. If it’s a mixture of both, we’re in for a war. Rodriguez’s value is in racking up significant strikes with the possibility of scoring a late finish set into motion by accumulative damage. The value in Dern is a submission any time she grabs hold of Rodriguez. The main event-winning streak is now even with the Dallas Cowboys’ winning streak at three. Mackenzie Dern via rear-naked choke, round two.

Winner: Mackenzie Dern | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Randy Brown (-230) vs. Jared Gooden (+185)

Brown: DK: $8.8k | Gooden: DK: $7.4k

Jared Gooden is the first fighter to win a fight via Bruce Lee's one-inch punch. This past July, Gooden KO’d Niklas Stolze in just over a minute with a right hand that barely left Gooden’s face. Gooden uses short T-Rex arm punches that only need a couple of inches of clearance to generate enough melatonin to sleep a 170 lb. grown man.

Gooden is 1-2 in the UFC, but two of those fights were on short notice. This will be only the second time Gooden will have had time to prepare for a specific opponent. He’s a boxer with off switches in both hands. There’s nothing intricate about Jared Gooden's striking. Gooden's hand speed is one-month delivery from China, and he lacks footwork and tends to be heavy and plodding. He also has the bad habit of backing up in a straight line when under attack. “Circle out” means exiting the pocket at angles instead of moving straight back where the opponent can follow you with punches. Circling out of the pocket forces the opponent to reset his feet and reengage all over again. It also gives you angles to attack from if you catch them over pursuing.

A bit of a slow starter, Gooden likes to take his time before he starts opening up with combinations. He becomes a combination striker as the fight goes on and consistently throws third and fourth-level strikes. The more Gooden gets hit, the more he moves forward. Although that’s not a trait conducive to ensuring longevity, it results in fourteen career finishes in eighteen career wins. Gooden has almost as many wins by submission as he does by KO, and that's likely the spoils of knocking people down and snatching their necks. Overall, Gooden is a scary dude. If you KO Jared Gooden in a dream, you better wake up and apologize.

Randy Brown’s stand-up is the complete opposite of Gooden’s. He’s long and rangy, and the more diverse striker, and will enjoy the luxury of having the advantage in almost every category on the feet. Brown is 7-4 in the UFC and is coming off a first-round submission win over Alex Oliveira. Unfortunately, Brown is most known for his KO loss to Niko Price, when Brown was KO’d by hammerfists while in Price’s guard. Yea, that was this guy. But trust me, Randy Brown can scrap and is very dangerous. He went toe-to-toe with Vicente Luque last year and was highly competitive before getting TKO’d at the buzzer in the second round.

Brown’s major malfunction and I mean major, is his inability to defend leg kicks. His stance is slightly closed in and makes it near impossible to check or move his leg out of the way of calf kicks. Luque amputated Brown's lead leg below the knee in their fight and failed to provide a tourniquet. As a result, Brown bled out by the end of the second round. Randy Brown is at his best when he flows and fights with his hands low instead of traditionally at his face. He implements boxing style slips/counters, shoulder rolls, and uses angles. It’s like he gets into a flow state and starts feeling what to do instead of thinking about it.

I think the chances for a finish one way or the other are very high in this one. Gooden only needs one shot to land. Keep an eye out on his lead hook; his lead hook has a knack for finding the target around the opponent’s guard. Brown can dominate this fight with superior footwork and quick successive 1-2s from the outside or sneak in takedowns and land a submission. Another complete toss-up. Randy Brown Brown via TKO, round two.

Winner: Randy Brown | Method: TKO Rd.2

Tim Elliott (+160) vs. Matheus Nicolau (-200)

Elliott: DK: $7.7k | Nicolau: DK: $8.5k

Tim Elliott is a strange fighter. He’s one of the best average fighters around. In 2016 he found himself back mounted on the legend Demitrious Johnson, hunting for a first round submission finish and all-time great upset. Elliot won the Ultimate Fighter show that year, and the first place prize was a title shot against DJ. It turns out, Lady Luck was on her state mandatory ten-minute break during that first round and Elliott went on to get dominated for the next four rounds.

A Weekly Knockout First Team All Moon Howler, Elliott is wild with a cape on. Super wild. He’s nasty, he’s grimey; he’s a grinder who will rub his head in your open wounds and drink your blood. The Octagon gets dark when Tim Elliot steps in. In between rounds, Elliott holds satanic rituals and busts out a Ouija board. Elliott’s closet homies are his own demons.

Elliott’s high pace and ability to create chaos every second of the fight are his main weapons. He bought the Dominick Cruz online footwork instructional and, at one time, was formidable on the feet. But that was then; this is now. Almost thirty career fights deep, Elliot’s stand-up has become more of a liability than the asset it once was. Timmy uses wide, looping overhands to close the distance and initiate the clinch and peruses takedowns relentlessly. He grinds from the top and uses old-school ground tactics like head fighting, covering the mouth to obstruct breathing, and grinding his forearms and elbows into the face. There’s not a moment Elliot isn’t attacking or advancing his position. If Tim Elliott gets you to the mat, you’re gonna have a bad time.

The problem this weekend for Tim Elliott is that he won’t be able to bully Matheus Nicolau with his wrestling. Nicolau has an excellent ground game and offensive wrestling, and if Elliott isn’t the one to dictate where the fight takes place, it could be a long, short night for Tim. In his second stint with the UFC after going 3-1 between 2015-2018, Nicolau returned to the Octagon this past March and won a competitive robbery against the highly touted free-agent acquisition, Manel Kape.

Matheus has his own arsenal of takedowns and the ability to relocate the fight. He’s quite handy with the knee tap and often chain wrestles into body locks and trip takedowns. I regard the single-leg takedown as one of the best skills to have in your wrestling repertoire. Not every good wrestler is good at finishing single legs and often uses them to transition into doubles. The single-leg is nifty because you only need to commit to grabbing hold of the leg closest to you. Nicolau runs his singles legs at angles, turns the corner on them, and keeps the opponent hopping on one foot off balance.

Nicolau trains in the land of green or red chile, the 505, Albuquerque, New Mexico; also commonly referred to as my second home. He trains at the legendary Jackson/Winkeljohn academy, so you know he’s going to step into the cage with a detailed game plan. The stand-up edge will be in Nicolau’s favor; he’s mostly a wrestler striker with respectable power but throws everything at one hundred percent velocity. Nicolau throws nothing but hooks and overhands, and he’s a firestarter in the pocket.

Matheus Nicolau is a sneaky good fighter, and I was hoping the oddsmakers would sleep on him but no dice. Nicolau is coming in as the early (-200) favorite, and likely because if the grappling is a wash, Nicolau should have a decided power advantage on the feet. The value in Tim Elliot is his pace and hanging around late into the fight where he can possibly steal a submission dub under the cover of darkness. Matheus Nicolau via decision.

Winner: Matheus Nicolau | Method: Decision

Sabina Mazo (-175 ) Mariya Agapova (+145 )

Mazo: DK: $8.3k | Agapova: DK: $7.9k

Mariya Agapova has the dubious distinction of being on the losing end of the largest upset odds-wise in UFC history. She Steve Irwin wrestled an L from the jaws of victory in her last fight against Shana Dobson. If I remember correctly, Dobson was in the (+1,000s) range when she defeated Agapova by second-round TKO. It was literally the biggest L ever handed out in the Octagon. But that was then, Mariya. This is now.

Agapova is the female version of the Toyota Frontrunner CEO, Ion Cutelaba. Mariya is long AF and fights like a cartoon dust cloud, nothing but flailing limbs tumbling all over the cage. Her only tactic is aggression and nonstop punching and kicking. The sole purpose of her striking is to overwhelm and not allow her opponent the opportunity to mount her own offense. This fight will be critical for Agapova; has she adjusted her approach and developed the technical skills that can carry her deep into fights? And can she take Ashley Yoder’s belt for the best tan in MMA and become the mandatory title challenger to the world champion, Tan Mom?

Sabina Mazo is a technical, well-rounded fighter. She’s a little old school; her bread and butter are the Thai Clinch and delivering nasty knees from the plum. Mazo can take the fight to the ground and has active ground and pound but prefers to keep it standing. She lacks power is an understatement. Her punches make dog toy squeaky sounds when they land and often get blown off course by the current created by the venue's air conditioning. But Sabina has a high output, with the ability to land over one hundred significant strikes in a fight consistently.

The key for Mazo will be matadoring Agapova’s aggressive forward pressure and keeping Agapova stuck in no-woman’s land at the end of her jab and 1-2. Mazo has to maintain lateral movement and not allow Agapova to bully her way into the pocket and clinch her. Mazo’s takedown defense is 5’7”, approximately 115 lbs, and last seen wearing a ski mask and black Avia tennis shoes; suspect. Watch out for Sabina Mazo’s lead leg, she has a sneaky no-switch lead head kick, and she’s crafty hiding it behind punches.

Agapova has finished seven of noine career wins and is by far the more serious threat to score a finish. Sabina Mazo has only three finishes in noine career wins. I’ll take slow and steady to win the race. Sabina Mazo via decision.

Winner: Sabina Mazo | Method: Decision

Phil Hawes (-310 ) vs Deron Winn (+240)

Hawes: DK: $9k | Winn: DK:$7.2k

Phil Hawes was on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016 and was bounced from the show by the tough Andrew Sanchez. He then went on to fight for the World Series of Fighting and Bellator. He returned to the UFC by way of the Contender’s series last year and has since won three fights in a row against very stiff competition, including Nassourdine Imavov and Kyle Daukaus.

Hawes is a huge wrestler whose striking has improved dramatically since his stint on the Ultimate Fighter. Another wrestler striker, Hawes, has heavy power punches but has also developed a solid jab, which he uses more traditionally to set up power shots. The power double-leg is his go-to takedown and is highly effective when he initiates it in the center of the cage.

Phil Hawes has a major malfunction; he has January 1st cardio. He has about a round and a half of fight in him before he's rendered completely useless to the point that he can’t defend himself. Against Nassourdine Imavov, Hawes dominated the first two rounds with takedowns and top control but had to hang on to the dub for dear life like a stubborn doodie. Hawes was out on his feet, a Walking Dead extra stumbling around the cage at the final buzzer. To Phil’s credit, he showed improved cardio or at least showed he could pace himself better against Kyle Daukaus in his most recent appearance.

Deron Winn is a dominant wrestler in his own regard but has failed to use it consistently in the UFC. He’s famous for being the highly touted former wrestling training partner of the Champ-Champ Daniel Cormier. In several previous fights, Winn failed to show commitment to his most valuable asset, his wrestling. He allowed himself to engage in three-round boxing matches and, as a result, experienced back-to-back losses before finding his way against Antonio Arroyo last year. In the Arroyo fight, Winn finally displayed his wrestling and used it to dominate Arroyo with top control.

On the feet, Winn throws heavy short hooks and overhands and fits the classic definition of a limited wrestler striker. The problem for Winn, it will be difficult to repeat the performance he had against Arroyo because I don’t see Winn taking down Phil Hawes consistently, if at all. This will likely turn into a wrestling/grappling stalemate, acknowledged prefight at the Best Western continental breakfast. If that were the case, I’d give Hawes the edge on the feet, being able to work off a traditional jab and set up his power shots.

I don’t like the chances of a finish in this one, but I would give Hawes the edge in that category. All seven of Hawes’s career TKO/KO wins have come in the first round, and Deron Winn has yet to finish a fight in the UFC in four promotional bouts. Phil Hawes via decision.

Winner: Phil Hawes | Method: Decision

Prelims

Highlighted Matchup

Alexander Romanov (-650) vs. Jared Vanderaa (+425)

Romanov: DK: $9.2k | Vanderaa: DK: $7k

Jared Vanderaa, clear your browser history, my man, in case you don’t make it back to the Snooty Fox after the fight. Alexander Romanov is fun to watch and comes out looking to catch a body and doesn’t mind standing trial. He starts fights shot out of a cannon, rushing across the cage shooting Goldberg spears. He has excellent slams and belly-to-back suplexes and aggressive, heavy ground and pound. Someday, Romanov will be the first man to throw his opponent outside the cage like throwing a beer keg in a Strong Man contest. Romanov has finished three fights with a forearm choke. It is exactly how it sounds, a forearm straight to the throat until you tap. It’s so vicious it looks like it should be illegal.

There is one red flag concerning Romanov. In his last fight, Romanov gassed heavily midway through the second round and turned into a soccer player faking an injury after a knee to the groin. Romanov barely escaped with the win after acting like he had just undergone a vasectomy and couldn’t continue. Right before the low blow, it looked like Romanov was about to be TKO’d. But that was then. This is now.

Jared Vanderaa wants to keep this fight… IT DOESN’T MATTER WHAT JARED VANDERAA WANTS!!! Alexander Romanov via forearm choke, round two.

Winner: Alexander Romanov | Method: Forearm Choke Rd.2

Fighter Spotlight

Chris Gutierrez (-265) DK: 8.9k

Leg kicks; you got to have a plan for them. Check them, get out of the way of them, catch them (not always recommended), counter them with strikes or takedowns; anything but absorb them without offering any consequences. Chris Gutierrez has two leg kick TKO victories on his record, including one against the highly touted prospect, Jimmy Flick. Gutierrez caught two murder charges in his last bout, one for each one of Andre Ewell’s legs. By the end of the third round, Gutierrez was literally kicking Ewell’s ass as Ewell attempted to run away from Gutierrez’s leg kicks.

The game plan for Gutierrez against the slick grappler Felipe Colares will be to work from the bottom up. Take out Colares’s legs and slow down Colares’s ability to change levels and initiate takedowns. Once Gutierrez establishes his kicks, he opens up with slick boxing and has underrated hands. My only apprehension about Gutierrez is, sometimes he succumbs to paralysis by analysis. He fails to engage for long stretches and can lose close rounds due to getting outworked.

I like this matchup for Gutierrez against Felipe Colares; Gutierrez should dominate the stand-up if he can defend early takedown attempts. Colares is tough enough to hang around late, especially if he can gain top control, but I like a late finish for Gutierrez, possibly a leg kick TKO.

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

I've been sitting on the packed roof of the Alexander Romanov train since it left the station, but there was absolutely nothing impressive about his last performance. I'm not gonna say he faked a groin shot and not being able to continue so he could avoid the inevitable L that was coming his way, but he faked a groin shot and not being able to continue so he could avoid the inevitable L that was coming his way. I don't trust him any further than the Yankees are going in the playoffs. If Romanov can't get the fight to the mat or finish it in the first round, he's going to be up F'd creek without any floaties. At (+425), can Jared Vanderaa last five minutes?

At (+150), Charles Rosa will be facing slick grappler and guillotine specialist Damon Jackson. Jackson's stand-up is what you'd expect to see at the self-check-out lane at Walmart, and Rosa should have an edge if he can keep it standing. Rosa is also a solid grappler, making this fight more of a toss-up.

Jared Gooden has one-inch punch of death power and can win any fight at any given moment. At (+185), Gooden can lose every minute of the fight and still win with a Dodgers walk-off. Remember, Randy Brown was once KO'd with hammerfists while in Niko Price's guard.

Pick 'Em

Chris Gutierrez (-265 ) vs. Felipe Colares (+210 )

Winner: Chris Gutierrez

 Method: TKO Rd.3 

Charles Rosa (+150 ) vs. Damon Jackson (-185 )

Winner: Damon Jackson

 Method: Guillotine Choke Rd.3

Lupita Godinez (-210 ) vs. Silvana Juarez (+175 ) *late replacement

Winner: Lupita Godinez

 Method: Decision

Steve Garcia (-310 ) vs. Charlie Ontiveros (+240 )

    Winner: Charlie Ontiveros

 Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning