We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko & Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

Objects in the mirror are closer than they appear. A look over the shoulder keeps the demons at bay; before we can look ahead, we must take a look back. UFC 268 featured two fights that drew comparisons to a classic, era-defining boxing match. The great boxing trainer/commentator Teddy Atlas said he caught Thrilla in Manilla Frazier vs. Ali flashbacks during the Justin Gaethje vs. Michael Chandler fight.

The bout quickly escalated into Thanksgiving table fisticuffs as soon as politics are brought up. Chandler was landing massive turkey cutlets and sides of yams and green beans, and Gaethje hurt Chandler multiple times with a flying gravy boat and repeated spoonfuls of canned cranberry sauce (not that “real” cranberry sauce nonsense) and Stoffer’s stuffing. In the second round, Gaethje had MC all but lying in a pine box with powder and rouge on his face like an 1840’s corpse. But Chandler survived, and the two took turns batting their eyes and blowing kisses at consciousness for the remainder of the fight.

And still… Kamaru Usman retained his welterweight belt, but once again, Colby Covington held on like a stubborn doodie after the bell saved him from a TKO loss in the second round. The third round opened with Covington’s team parading him around the Octagon and automating his actions manually like A Weekend At Bernie’s. Colby regained his faculties by the fourth round and finished the fight strong, hurting Usman multiple times in the final ten minutes. After the fight, Usman said his two fights with Covington were comparable to Ali vs. Frazier and left open the possibility of a third meeting.

Chris Barnett, AKA the real-life Kung Fu Panda, came out looking like the Hamburger Helper glove throwing jumping, spinning, flying wheel kicks, and scissor kicks and straight kicked Gian Villante into 2022. Barnett is the most agile two hundred sixty-five pound man in the world and has the best touchdown celebration since the Ickey Shuffle and the Dirty Bird.

Phil Hawes stealing a come-from-ahead L against Chris Curtis was the only matchup that came between me and immortal glory and a perfect 14-0 night. It was the equivalent of laying down a bunt to break up a no-hitter. It was the only blemish of the night, and now I must continue on my quest for perfection. One day. Some day…

Main Card

Yair Rodriguez (+450 ) vs Max Holloway (-700)

Yair: DK: $6.7k | Max: DK:$9.5k

Max Holloway is that dude. Which dude? The dude. He’s an ass-kicker, a fanny booter, a rump punter. Holloway’s style is Castor Troy; he boxes your face off with voluminous never-ending combinations; Vegas buffet, all you can eat dusk ‘til dawn, seedy. You feel dirty after watching a Max Holloway fight and question what kind of person would take pleasure in watching such a thing. In his most recent bout against Calvin Kattar, Max was Patrick Mahomes no-look countering at one point. He threw Stockton to Malone look-away overhand rights while talking to Joe Rogan and Danielle Cormier commentating.

It was a statement win, that drubbing. Cardio, aggression, and volume; Max is one of a kind in all three categories, and when combined, they can overcome most technical and physical deficits. The key to Holloway’s suffocating volume is his ability to strike and flow naturally between both stances. He never has to stop throwing because he can strike in any direction. He sways melodiously back and forth like a cobra, which allows him to stay loose and snap punches from different angles. Power isn’t part of Holloway’s game; overwhelming pressure is. Holloway can simply push a pace that few fighters can sustain throughout five rounds.

Pay close attention to Holloway’s hand position. He keeps his hands high and out in front of him rather than tight to his face. This shortens the distance his punches have to travel and makes him quicker, and he can also use the same hand position to deflect attacks. A squared stance (both shoulders in alignment) gives the effect of having two crosses (power punches) rather than a traditional jab and cross. Holloway's use of a squared stance also allows him to switch from orthodox to southpaw fluidly during combinations.

Defensively, Max isn’t the soundest; he relies too much on his chin and takes a lot of punishment because of it. Leg kicks; if you’re new to the Weekly Knockout, you’ll hear me say a thousand times how underutilized they are. Well-timed leg kicks can take any fighter out of their game plan and render them almost useless after taking just one or two. Max doesn’t defend leg kicks, and if you don’t check leg kicks, you’re gonna have a bad time.

Max vs. Yair is a battle of range, and whoever can control it will win the fight. Yair Rodriguez is a long flashy striker who needs space to initiate his wide variety of kicks, and Max fights in the pocket and in your face and is a master at cutting off and trapping opponents against the cage. Max doesn't give up the pocket without resistance, using slips and counters rather than vacating completely. It’s no secret that Max wants to turn this into a firefight.

Yair Rodriguez is the owner of possibly the greatest KO of all time. He’s the king of turning flashy techniques into fundamental ones and pulled off an Ong Bak ducking back elbow at the buzzer of a five-round war against the Korean Zombie. Yair caught the Zombie rushing in for a final flurry as time expired and planted the Zombie face down on the mat with the craziest elbow strike you’ll ever see not in a Movie. He's one of those rare fighters with better kicks than hands but can still dominate a fight.

What makes Rodriguez special is his kicks. He throws kick combinations like traditional hand combinations. He’ll follow a side kick with a round kick and a snap kick up the middle to punctuate. Like Max, Rodriguez is a stance switcher and likes to attack from the opposite stance of his opponent and particularly likes to target the body with round kicks. Yair’s weakness is his hands. He has long, snapping wide strikes and uses basic 1s and 1-2s, but he’ll need to be careful exchanging in the pocket with Max.

The key to the fight for Yair will be using angles and lateral movement to keep Max at the end of his strikes. Yair is a frantic, high-output fighter and can use volume from the outside to keep Max stuck in no-man’s land and within range of Yair’s flashy fight-ending techniques.

Fantasy-wise, both fighters are high output strikers with very little dead air between exchanges. Yair is a home run hitter on the feet and has slick submission skills should the fight end up on the mat. But Yair is opening as the (+390) underdog for a reason; Max is just on a different level. Max breaks wills. Four hundred forty-five: The number of strikes Max landed against Calvin Kattar. Max’s value is volume and fight-ending sequences created by the accumulative effect. There’s no better fighter to have than Max Holloway to start a new main event-winning streak. On wax, Max Holloway via TKO, round four.

Winner: Max Holloway | Method: TKO Rd.4

Marcos De Lima (+130) vs. Ben Rothwell (-155)

De Lima: DK: $7.6k | Rothwell: DK: $8.6k

Ben Rothwell is back, resuming his MMA career after a busy Halloween season. Ben dresses as the clown from Devil’s Rejects and chases people around a corn maze with a gas-powered chainsaw. He’s a Michael Myers in fight shorts, who never has to run but manages to stay just a step behind his fleeing victims.

Big Ben is plodding with sneaky power and has twenty-eight finishes in thirty-noine professional wins. Rothwell will take your best shots and keep marching forward while peppering you with long combinations. Ben is coming off a second-round submission win over the Kun Fu Panda Chris Barnett and has won three of his last four. But stats can be manipulated. Using a larger sample size, Rothwell is 3-4 in his last seven bouts. Overall, Rothwell is a scary-looking wild man whose back-story was penned by Wes Craven. He’s aggressive and is rarely involved in a boring fight.

Marcos De Lima is a galoot and is often in boring fights. An interesting occurrence on De Lima’s record: He has alternated wins and losses since 2014, including eleven fights in that span. His last bout was a win, while the fans watching took home the L, polished it, and set it on top of the PlayStation next to the Zeke and Dak Funko Pops.

Lima’s specialty is taking down the opponent and falling asleep while on top of them. On the feet, he throws dive bar-jukebox-scrap bombs like De Lima’s heard Bon Jovi Livin’ On a Prayer ten too many times and just snapped. Marcos is a throwback to the old phrase “lay and pray.” It’s not an endearing term, but it’s not completely derogatory either. Lay and pray is a winning formula but won’t result in increased Twitter followers.

De Lima’s strategy will be to wait until Rothwell engages so he can duck under the strikes and gain top position. From there, he’ll punch the clock and disappear into the bathroom stall for a half-hour before reemerging and asking for his first ten-minute break. Rothwell will have to be careful not to over-pursue and allow De Lima to get underneath his strikes. If this stays standing, Ben Rothwell will corner De Lima down a dead end and get to revving his chainsaw; it’ll be over quick. If De Lima can get the fight to the mat, I'm off to the Thunderdome to politic with Mary Jane.

De Lima has fifteen finishes in eighteen career wins, an impressive finishing rate, but I think Rothwell has a better shot at a finish with his high volume and long reach. Ben Rothwell via TKO, round two.

Winner: Ben Rothwell | Method: TKO Rd.2

Leah Letson (+240) vs. Felicia Spencer (-310)

Letson: DK: $7.1k | Spencer: DK: $9.1k

What I don’t know about Leah Letson could be packaged in bulk and sold at Costco. She’s fighting for just the second time in the UFC and is facing a very tough Felicia Spencer, who has stepped into the Octagon with the female GOAT’s, Amanda Nunes and Cyborg.

Leah Letson is a southpaw and a blue belt in mall karate. Her striking is stiff; her head never moves like she’s wearing a neck brace, and she relies heavily on her left hand to mount an offense. Letson’s movement is like playing an old NES game when you could only move forward or backward. She tends to get caught standing in place and doesn’t use her feet to close the distance very well. I haven’t seen Leah’s ground game, but I’m willing to bet the last place she wants to end up is underneath Felicia Spencer.

Felicia Spencer is tough and grimey, respectfully. She is the only woman alive that can say she survived encounters with Amanda Nunes and Cris Cyborg Santos. Spencer went the distance against both female GOATS and had her moments against Cyborg in which she caused Cyborg some problems. Amanda Nunes… not so much. But she survived five rounds against Nunes, and you may not believe in moral victories, but I’m a Dallas Cowboys fan.

Spencer reminds me of the female version of Chris Leben; she takes heavy damage but never stops coming forward and throwing haymakers and cutting standing elbows. I think Spencer has better elbows than she does hands. Her style on the feet is awkward and unorthodox, and she likes to initiate the collar tie clinch much like Daniel Cormier.

“Bye” Felicia Spencer’s hands on the feet are her weakness, but she has excellent takedowns and grappling and has better strikes from the top position than she does standing. Spencer shines on the mat from the top position, and if she can consistently get Letson to the mat, Wrap-It-Up-B. Pack it up, pack it in, let me begin. Felicia’s elbows from the top are fight-enders and she has excellent top control to maintain the position.

Fantasy value: Letson has finished three of her five pro wins, and Spencer has finished six of her eight pro wins. Felicia has faced far better competition than Letson has and will have a big advantage on the mat. But Felicia only averages three significant strikes per minute on the feet, while Letson averages almost five, but that was only one bout. Tough call, but Spencer gives you a better shot at a finish. Felicia Spencer via rear-naked choke, round three.

Winner: Felicia Spencer | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Song Yadong (-140 ) Julio Arce (+115 )

Yadong: DK: $8.4k | Arce: DK: $7.8k

This one is a crunchy little groove featuring two strikers with polar opposite styles. Song Yadong is a wrestler-boxer with heavy hands, and Julio Arce is a savvy kickboxer with a boxer’s pocket presence. Other than the main event, this one right here could be a leading candidate for the fight of the night.

Yadong is a right-hand dominant power striker with high-level wrestler striking. His go-to combination is the 2-3-2 (cross-hook-cross); Yadong uses his right hand to engage ninety percent of the time. Of course, that’s a completely fictitious stat, but that’s what it seems like when you watch Yadong fight. Yadong lacks footwork from the outside, so he relies on explosive athletic ability to close the distance with his cross.

The next step in the evolution of Song Yadong is using speed instead of power. Yadong’s striking is all power, everything he throws is at one hundred percent, and he needs to learn how to use his speed to set up his power. Focusing on speed allows you to touch the opponent more often and uses less energy. If Yadong learns to take a little steam off his punches, he’ll develop into a contender. He’s coming off an impressive win against Casey Kenney and improved his UFC record to 6-1-1, and Yandong has a win over Marlon Vera. He’s the real deal.

Julio Arce is a sleeper. From afar, his striking seems rather vanilla; I liken it to watching early Rob Font fights. But when you take a closer look, you’ll see an elusive fighter with slick counters and tight fundamentals. This will be a classic power vs. technique matchup, and Arce will be the one with the technical edge. Arce manipulates the pocket by sliding just outside of strikes or slipping and countering. He can also establish the range from the outside with his jab, which could cause Yadong problems. Song is either all-in or all-out of the pocket and never in between. Arce can camp out in the pocket with smores and roasted weenies, but Yadong likes to slip back to the Motel 6 when the sun goes down.

Arce will also be the more diverse striker; he uses round and teep kicks in addition to having slick boxing, while Song Yandong mostly relies on his hands. Both fighters push at an excellent pace and average nearly four and a half significant strikes per minute. But Yadong has hit the one hundred significant strikes mark multiple times in his career, while Arce tops out around seventy-five. Arce is opening as the (+130) dog, and I think he can cause problems similar to the ones Kyler Phillips caused Song Yandong. Put it on wax, Julio Arce via decision.

Winner: Julio Arce | Method: Decision

Khaos Williams (+115 ) vs Miguel Baeza (-140)

Khaos: DK: $7.7k | Baeza: DK:$8.5k

This is going to be a contentious battle of no head movement. These two guys could have a staring contest while exchanging back and forth. Khaos Williams is a Homer-Simpson-jumping-the-gorge daredevil striker, an Evel Knievel if you will. He drops his hands to his waist and sticks his chin straight up in the air, and dares you to punch or kick him in the face while he throws bombs at you. Meanwhile, Miguel Baeza wouldn’t move his head if he were standing in the middle of a category five hurricane. Well, the eye is in the middle of a hurricane, but you get what I’m saying.

Williams can get away with holes—black holes—in his striking because he has Ralph Wiggum power, stupid power. Khaos doesn’t lack aggression and is a combination striker, two traits that can mask defensive shortcomings. Williams will chase his opponent with alternating hooks, and retreating in a straight is a guaranteed way for Williams to take your face… off. But watch Williams’s hands when he engages; they drop to his waist, leaving his head wide open. I get sweaty palms watching him fight, waiting for him to get Ned Stark’d during every exchange.

Miguel Baeza is a highly touted prospect with a 10-1 record. His first loss came in his most recent bout against Santiago “The Ponz” Ponzinibio, and it was a war. Baeza destroyed Ponzinibio’s lead leg with calf kicks and got out to an early lead but faded late. Leg kicks are a big part of Baeza’s offense, but he throws them almost exclusively naked with nothing in front of them. That will be dangerous against Khaos Williams, who will punch through leg kicks, risking the damage to land a couple of bombs in return.

Baeza has the classic upright Brazilian Muay Thai and looks a lot like the Lightweight Champion, Charles Oliveira. Baeza doesn’t open up very much and is a relatively low output striker, but he chooses his opening wisely and has long, straight punches that he can fit between tight hand guards. He won his UFC debut by leg kick TKO and has finished all three of his UFC wins.

Have one of these guys on your roster. Baeza has finished eight of his ten professional wins, seven by TKO/KO, and Khaos has finished seven of his twelve wins with six TKO/KO’s. Their offensive strengths play perfectly into each other’s defensive weaknesses. I think Baeza will look to sneak in some takedowns to wear down Williams and take some steam off his punches, and Baeza is the slighter more diverse striker on the feet. Miguel Baeza via rear-naked choke, round two.

Winner: Miguel Baeza | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Prelims

Highlighted Matchup

Marc Diakiese (-185) vs. Rafael Alves (+150)

Diakiese: DK: $8.7k | Alves: DK: $7.5k

This one right here is speed vs. speed. These dudes’ hand speed puts E. Honda’s 100 hand slap to shame. Marc Diakiese is a long, athletic, traditional kickboxer, while Rafael Alves is a short, stalky explosive boxer. They both have completely different styles but share excessive hand speed as their most dominant attribute.

Marc Diakiese is a one to two-punch striker who likes to engage from outside the pocket, using long jabs and kicks to keep his opponents stuck on the outside. Alves is a pocket dweller that uses his piston right hand to cover distance. Once inside the pocket, Alves unloads with heavy hooks and overhands.

Alves and Diakiese are both coming off impressive losses to elite competition, losses in which both fighters were highly competitive while being big underdogs. Diekiese fought to a competitive decision loss to the absolute killer Rafael Fiziev, and Rafael lost a decision to the sleeper Damir Ismagulov and had Ismagulov hurt early and late in the fight. The technical striking edge will go to Diakiese, but the power advantage will go to Alves.

Diakiese will look to pick Alves apart from the outside and will have to be careful to stay away from the fence; Rafael has the added advantage of being able to relocate the fight to the mat where he has seven wins by submission to go along with seven TKO/KO’s. When facing a taller, longer fighter, bodywork is essential. Headhunting a taller fighter who knows how to use his range like Diakiese could lead to a dark place for Alves. The head is easy to move out of the way, but the body isn’t. Attacking the body forces a fighter to drop their hands and makes their head momentarily stationary.

Diakiese is coming in as the favorite but Alves throws massive bombs in short flurries and provides a better shot at a finish. Diakiese hasn’t finished a fight since 2017 and isn’t a high-output striker. Actually, neither fighter has a high output. Alves tends to attack in short bursts and Diakiese likes to pick his shots judiciously and wants to avoid firefights. I was really impressed with Alves in his last fight against Ismagulov. He had Ismagulov rocked in the opening minute and had his chances to win the fight. I think this is a good opportunity to take an underdog, and I'm going to throw a dog a bone. Rafael Alves via decision.

Winner: Rafael Alves | Method: Decision

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

"Are you gonna bark all day little doggie, or are you gonna bite?"- Mr. Blonde.

I finally got a dog to bite last week, albeit a slight dog, but Thug Rose Thug Rose Thug Rose Namajunas hit for me last week. This week, Julio Arce and Rafael Alves have solid value as underdogs. Arce has underrated slick kickboxing and Alves's speed and power are a lot to handle and both have winnable matchups.

If you're feeling extra froggy, keep an eye out on Collin Anglin against the human ancient Egyptian hieroglyphic, Sean Woodson. Woodson is built like an ancient cave drawing and will have a big advantage on the feet, but this is the classic striker vs. grappler matchup. These types of fights can go either way. If Anglin can get Woodson to the mat, he can grind out a win from the top. But if he can't get Woodson down, Woodson will box Anglin's face... off. That's why they call it gambling.

Pick 'Em

Thiago Moises (-240 ) vs. Joel Alvarez (+195 )

Winner: Thiago Moises

 Method: Decision 

Cynthia Calvillo (-130 ) vs. Andrea Lee (+110 )

Winner: Cynthia Calvillo

 Method: Decision

Sean Woodson (-335 ) vs. Collin Anglin (+255 )

Winner: Sean Woodson

 Method: Decision

Cortney Casey (-230 ) vs. Liana Jojua (+185 )

    Winner: Cortney Casey

 Method: Decision

Kennedy Nzechukwu (-105 ) vs. Da-Un Jung (-120 )

    Winner: Kennedy Nzechukwu

 Method: TKO Rd.3

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning