We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko & Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

Main Card

Alexander Volkov (+110) vs Tom Aspinall (-130)

Volkov: DK: $7.9k | Aspinall: DK:$8.3k

The Tortoise vs. The Hare; a VW hippie bus vs. a Tesla Model S; Danny Glover vs. The Predator; Alexander Volkov vs. Tom Aspinall. This weekend’s fight night will be an old-fashion Godzilla monster-of-the-week episode featuring a clash between a giant three-toed sloth and a saber tooth tiger. Alexander Volkov is the long, slow galoot, and Tom Aspinall is the fast, explosive athlete. Alexander Volkov is a marathon power walker, and Tom Aspinall is a one-hundred-meter sprinter. One won't make it to the finish line.

Tom Aspinall is 4-0 in the UFC with four finishes, and only one fight made it to the second round. Aspinall is Paul Wall with the diamond fronts, all bling. He’s a highlight reel of flashy KOs brought about by blinding hand speed and devastating power. Catching a glimpse into the future of the heavyweight division while watching Tom Aspinall fight is a predictable side effect and should not be brushed aside as just Grammy’s magic brownies kicking in.

Tommy is on a seven-fight winning/finishing streak, and a dub against Alexander Volkov will establish Aspinall as a legit title challenger. Aspinall is a promising young heavyweight prospect that moves like Ciryl Gane. His hand speed is possibly the best in the division, as is his boxing. Aspinall uses intricate techniques like shoulder rolls, stepping off at angles, and striking while moving in all directions. He blends boxing techniques with kickboxing hand/kick combinations and is light on his feet, using a Karate-like perpetual bounce. Sprinkle in excellent takedowns and heavy ground and pound, and you got yourself a well-rounded fighter with dead ends terminating every path to victory against him. But don’t worry, Volkov; I got you.

Red flags: There aren’t many to the untrained eye, but that’s why you come to the Weekly KO; for Mary Jane enhanced eyes trained at the world-class Couch Performance Institute. Thousands of reps, doobie curls until failure and watching fights nonstop like a Guantanamo prisoner forced to watch Rosanne reruns.

We have to go back to the Andrei Arlovski fight to find the holes in Aspinall’s game. Aspinall is hittable. His defense on the feet is leaky and, at times, lazy. It looks the part at first glance with slick head movement and precise range management that positions him just outside the opponent’s reach, but Aspinall uses a half-assed Philly Shell that can be penetrated with extended combinations. If you stop throwing after one or two strikes, Aspinall will make you miss and make you pay, so the key is to continue to pursue with third and fourth level strikes. Strikes one and two may miss but three and four won’t. Aspinall has trouble defending down the middle, and Arlovski was beginning to piece-up Aspinall late in the first round. Aspinall switched things up in the second round and bum-rushed Arlovski and latched on to Arlovski’s neck against the cage, and it was a wrap. But the first round against Arlovski was telling; Tom Aspinall is beatable.

Aspinall’s biggest question mark is his gas tank. His fights rarely last five minutes; what will happen if he can’t find the early finish? Like my questions for Terrance McKinney last week, does Aspinall have the dog in him, can he tread in deep waters? Derrick Lewis is the only man to KO Volkov in the UFC, and that was after Volkov pappy’d Lewis for fourteen minutes and forty-five seconds. Those last fifteen seconds Volkov doesn’t like to talk about.

Alexander Volkov is a long kickboxer who uses his reach well and has immense experience fighting big power punchers and neutralizing them. He’s 8-3 in the UFC, with losses coming only to elite competition, Derrick Lewis, Ciryl Gane, and Curtis Blaydes. Like Jay-Z, Curtis Blaydes wrote the blueprint on beating Volkov; take him down. Blaydes scored a record fourteen takedowns in his bout against Volkov. Watching Volkov defend takedowns was like watching a picket fence in a tornado, and once he’s on the ground, he’s like a bearskin rug in a log cabin; he ain’t going anywhere.

But on the feet, Volkov is an underrated, often overlooked striker. Volkov has excellent long striking, using his jab and front snap kicks to the body to control range. He KO’d Walt Harris with a devastating teep to the body that led to Volkov finishing Harris with ground and pound. Volkov chips away with front body kicks and uses them as a second set of jabs to draw attention away from his hands.

There are two keys for Volkov against Aspinall: Survive Aspinall’s early speed and power and keep the fight standing by using long-range strikes to dominate the outer fringe of the pocket. I lied; there’s one more key for Volkov, volume. He has to increase his output to test Aspinall’s cardio beyond the first and second rounds. Pressure makes diamonds, bursts pipes, and beats Tom Aspinall.

I ditched the chonies and chanclas; I’m streaking again after Magomed Ankalaev played it safe for five rounds and outworked Thiago Santos to a boring decision last week. As I sit here, the oddsmakers have this set as a literal pick ‘em at (-110). Tom Aspinall’s value will be in an early stoppage, and Volkov’s will be in a late stoppage or five-round decision. Everything will hinge on Tom Aspinall’s unknown gas tank and getting Volkov to the mat early. For weeks I thought Aspinall was the easy pick, but if he can’t get Volkov out of there early, he’ll be in trouble. Alexander Volkov via TKO, round four.

Winner: Alexander Volkov | Method: TKO Rd.4

"Hey" Arnold Allen (-115) vs. Dan Hooker (-105)

Allen: DK: $8k | Hooker: DK: $8.2k

This is a stepping stone scrap for “Hey” Arnold Allen, his possible introduction to the mainstream and top ten at featherweight. This will be Dan Hooker’s second stint in the featherweight division after dropping three of his last four at lightweight, including his most recent fight against Islam Makhachev. Hooker went from unwrapping the Willy Wonka golden ticket, a possible title shot had he beaten Khabib Lite, to vacating the weight class.

But let's start with Arnold Allen; he’s an undercover nasty motherf***er. So much so he looks like an actual undercover Fed, no cap. Allen looks like a plant, an agent provocateur sent to stir up civil unrest at plastic straw protests. There are no easy paths to victory when facing Allen; he can stand and bang and shut the lights off, or go full BDSM, strap on the pleather chaps and vest and choke you real nice, real proper.

I think most fighters sleep on Allen’s stand-up, and you can pinpoint the moment they realize they done F’d up. His left hand punches one-way tickets to Valhalla, and his left high kick is lightning quick. You don’t want to ride the Arnold Allen lightning. You don’t want to catch an ankle sock tan line shin upside your head like Sodiq Yusuff did in Allen’s most recent fight. Allen’s kick had Yusuff doing the Griddy in the middle of the cage like a premature TD celebration.

Common sense would say to stay away from Allen’s left hand and left leg, but I’d do the opposite if I were Dan Hooker. I’d overplay his left side, crowd it and not allow him any room to launch left-hand strikes. Allen is crafty at stringing together left-hand combos, alternating between attacking the body and head. Dan Hooker should also look to attack Allen up the middle with uppercuts, knees, and snap kicks. “Hey” Arnold uses a squared, hunched-over stance that leaves him vulnerable between the shoulders.

Dan Hooker’s special move is a standing step-in knee that he uses to counter the opponent’s forward pressure. He can knee you in the face without jumping while you’re standing up straight. Against Allen, Hooker should hide the knee and use it to punctuate hand combinations. Get Arnold to change his head level and run right into it.

Dan Hooker’s kickboxing is high-level, and standing with anybody at featherweight or lightweight has never been a problem. Except when he fought Michael Chandler, but why bring up old shit? Fight ending power, Hooker has it, and he also has the creativity to set traps to maximize it. Hooker changes levels with his striking mid-combination and mixes in varieties of round kicks and front teeps and snap kicks to the body.

The wrestling/grappling advantage will favor Allen. I think Hooker will want to keep the fight standing and take his chances trading with Allen. Dan Hooker is coming in as the slight favorite, but to me, this is a dead center toss-up, and Arnold Allen at plus money is a great look. I don’t see a finish in this one, but both have the ability. On wax, Arnold Allen via decision.

Winner: Arnold Allen | Method: Decision

Kazula Vargas (+360) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-490)

Kazula: DK: $6.8k | Pimblett: DK: $9.4k

You may remember Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett; he’s a brash Englishman with a 1917 bowl cut and has drawn comparisons to Conor McGregor when McGregor first jumped on the scene. But any such comparisons are only personality deep. Paddy doesn’t have the technical striking ability or power that Conor Mcgregor had/has.

Pimblett is a highly touted young prospect with a 17-3 professional record. He made his UFC debut last year and ran into a stiff test against Luigi Vendramini. Vendramini looked poised for the upset early, bullying Pimblett with heavy power combinations that made Pimblett look overwhelmed at times. But Paddy persevered and changed the tides in a blink with a Khalil Rountree-like wild flurry that left Vendramini slumped against the cage, looking like a mob hit victim.

Paddy can bake you a cake as fast as he can anywhere the fight goes. On top of wild, aggressive striking, he is a slick, creative grappler with seven career submission wins. I would venture to say Paddy is a better grappler than he is a striker, and his sustained success in the UFC will hinge on finding ways to get fights to the mat.

A major problem for Paddy is that he lacks power on the feet and mostly arm punches, winging wide alternating hooks from chest level. Pimblett also lacks a solid base built on fundamentals. He needs chaos on the feet to be effective and can't get caught in a high-level chess match. As he advances in his career, he won’t be able to overwhelm elite strikers with wild flurries. He’ll get picked apart like Luigi Vendramini was doing before he wasn’t.

But… if this kid gets top control, it’s only a matter of time until he takes your back and sinks in a rear-naked choke. Paddy likes to work underhooks against the cage to secure body locks and trips and relies on maintaining top position to win fights. That will be his advantage in his sophomore effort against Rodrigo Vargas.

Rodrigo Vargas is a lot like Paddy’s debut opponent, Vendramini. He is a stout power puncher with good aggression and short, heavy combinations. Vargas likes to start with punches to the body and end with head strikes. He’ll dig to the body to get the opponent to drop their hands and then unload to the head. But overall, Vargas is a JAG, just a guy. He’s a Boxcar Willie, a formality placed along Homer’s path to a showdown with Drederick Tatum. Rodrigo isn’t a chump, but he’s not-not a chump either.

This is a safe fight for Pimblett to gain experience and exposure, but sometimes the fights you’re supposed to win are the most dangerous. Paddy Pimblett via rear-naked choke, round three.

Winner: Paddy Pimblett | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Gunnar Nelson (-475) vs. Takashi Sato (+350)

Nelson: DK: $9.2k | Sato: DK: $7k

This is a comeback fight for Gunnar Nelson and the equivalent of Chan Ho Park grooving a pitch to Cal Ripken Jr. in Ripken’s final All-Star game. Gunnar is an elite grappler, and his path to victory against Takashi Sato will be illuminated and paved in gold. When shown a police six-pack of suspect takedown defenses, Sato’s is in the bottom right-hand corner.

“That’s him right there, Detective.”

“Go ahead and circle him and initial it.”

Two weeks later, you get a subpoena in the mail. Gunnar has nifty takedowns from the clinch and a strong top game. “Floating” from the top position is maintaining top control while allowing your opponent to maneuver underneath you. You flow with the opponent’s movements and, in doing so, cut off escape routes. Floating from the top is stifling without looking like it. Gunnar will float from the top position until he sees an opening to pass the guard into a dominant position. Twelve of Gunnar’s seventeen professional victories have come via submission.

Gunni isn’t all grappling; he uses a hybrid Wonderboy/McGregor bladed Karate stance and has deceptively quick hands. He darts in and out with quick one-twos like Wonderboy; point Karate, hit and don’t get hit. Nelson's striking is good enough to hang with most as a means to finding takedown opportunities but isn't reliable enough to stand and bang with the division's best strikers. He could probably out-strike Sato if he wanted too, but Gunnar’s main threat is his ground game.

Takashi Sato is a serviceable striker, but he suffers from a style complex. He doesn’t know if he wants to use a Karate in/out style or a kickboxer’s squared stance with classic hand combinations. The lines between the two don’t blend at all for Sato and stand out as if he’s two different fighters. Sato is 2-2 in the UFC and coming off a second-round submission loss to Miguel Baeza. As soon as Baeza got the fight to the mat, it was a wrap. I started getting PTSD Greg Hardy flashbacks. Sato has one path to victory against Gunnar, and that’s to keep it standing at all costs, take risks, and trade hands.

Anywho, Gunnar Nelson via rear-naked choke, round one.

Winner: Gunnar Nelson  | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.1

Nikita Krylov (-190) vs Paul Craig (+160)

Krylov: DK: $8.7k | Craig: DK:$7.5k

This is a grappler’s delight if there ever was one and could border on an NC-17 rating with all the ground action that will take place. Better have your Drake Tapatio’s close by. After Paul Craig’s last fight, I can’t turn on my blinker to change lanes without seeing Jamahal Hill’s forearm snap. The image of Jamahal’s arm scoring significant strikes against his own face is forever burned into my retinas.

The impressive thing about that submission was how Craig baited Hill like a Venus flytrap into passing Craig’s guard right into danger. Twice, Craig let Hill pass into the half guard with no resistance, giving Hill a false sense of security. Not so fast. Craig immediately put his shin across Hill’s hip and attacked a shoulder crank that he transitioned to a triangle/armbar. Hill escaped the first time but not the second.

Paul Craig is a creative, world-class grappler who can travel multiple routes to get the fight to the mat. Craig can change levels quickly and cover a lot of distance with a traditional double-leg shot, while timing his opponent’s strikes. He will also pull guard and work his way to the top position using the lockdown from the half guard to sweep and end up on top. But Paul doesn’t have to end up in top positon to find submissions; he has eight wins via triangle choke and two via armbar. That’s ten submission wins from his guard. He also has a one hundred percent finishing rate in fifteen professional wins, including thirteen total submissions.

Craig’s major malfunction is his striking. It isn’t awful, but he can’t win fights exclusively on his feet. He has better kicks than hands, especially when using his lead leg to attack. He uses a variety of up-the-middle and round kicks to pepper opponents and draws out aggressive attacks so he can change levels and use the aggression against them. But I think Craig will have something to prove against Nakita Krylov, a fellow feared and highly respected world-class grappler, and try to out-grapple Krylov.

If you’re a new fan of the sport and want to gain a better appreciation for grappling and its intricacies, watch Nikita Krylov vs. Glover Teixeira. The scrambles and reverses and sub attempts were nonstop in that fight, and it could be a preview of this weekend’s matchup. Nikita Krylov is an elite wrestler/grappler with relentless takedowns and submission attempts.

Krylov is 27-8 overall with fifteen submissions and eleven TKO/KO’s on his professional record. Although Krylov has respectable standup, his bread and butter is wrestling. He strings together takedown attempts, singles to doubles, doubles to body locks, and rarely gives up on them. From the top position, Nikita implements continual grinding ground and pound to soften up the opponent and advance position.

If this turns into a takedown/grappling stalemate, Krylov will have a slight advantage on the feet. But the key for Krylov will be maintaining top position while avoiding Craig’s submission attempts. Craig likes to fight from his back which is a double-edged sword; it gives him the best chance to finish the fight, but being on the bottom looks bad in the eyes of the judges if the fight goes the distance. It’s for that reason alone that I’m picking Krylov. Krylov has been sub’d five times in his career but went fifteen minutes against Magomed Ankalaev and Glover without tapping. I think he can maintain enough top position to eke out the dub. But the Fantasy pick is Paul Craig; if the fight ends in a finish, it will be via a Paul Craig submission. Nikita Krylov via decision.

Winner: Nikita Krylov | Method: Decision

Jai Herbert (+385) vs Ilia Topuria (-525)

Herbert: DK: $6.9k | Topuria: DK:$9.3k

Topuria is an elite-level wrestler/grappler and is the perfect mixture of power, strength, and technique. At featherweight, Topuria easily has some of the best wrestling/grappling in the division.

Ilia has a Greco style, complete with suplexes and strong power double-legs punctuated with suffocating top control. He’s a submission over position grappler with little ground and pound implemented. Instead, he attacks submission after submission and strings them together like elite strikers do hand combinations. Throw up the W, Protect Ya Neck whenever you’re near Topuria. Ilia will pursue chokes anywhere, from the clinch, from the top, from the bottom, from your mammy’s house while wearing your pappy’s robe.

Topuria's stand-up is power-based; two fights ago, Topuria cracked Damon Jackson’s ass like wiping with single ply Parks and Rec toilet paper. He uses short basic combinations but commits and throws everything at one hundred percent. Ilia earns respect on the feet, making it easier to create opportunities to change levels and shoot. I look at Topuria like a smaller Arman Tsarukyan, and he has all the skills to challenge for a title some day.

After seeing the backstage fisticuffs between Ilia Topuria and Paddy Pimblett, I’m all for scrapping each fighter’s current match-ups and making Topuria vs. Pimblett for this weekend. Pimblett and Topuria are facing favorable match-ups and, in Topuria’s case, a fight against Jai Herbert does little to help his stock.

Herbert is a slightly above average kickboxer with a puncher’s chance on the feet and an average grappler who will be completely outclassed on the mat. He’s 1-2 in the UFC and, to his credit, has faced stiff competition, including Renato Moicano and Francisco Trinaldo. Topuria will likely be the best fighter Herbert has ever faced, especially on the mat. Herbert’s only hope is to keep the fight standing and put Topuria on his back foot using volume. If Herbert allows Topuria to press forward with his heavy punches, he’ll end up on his back and likely won’t get back up.

Topuria is stepping in as the prohibited (-450) favorite, and it's hard to argue against those odds; he’s just better in all areas. Ilia Topuria via rear-naked choke, round two.

Winner: Ilia Topuria | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Prelims

Highlighted Matchup

Shamil Abdurakhimov (+245) vs Sergei Pavlovich (-310)

Adbdurstuvwy: DK: $7.2k | Pavlovich: DK:$9k

You can catch scraps like this when the soft-serve machine at Hometown Buffet is out of service or someone takes the last TexMex southwestern chicken enchilada. Shamil Abdurakdhghg throws nothing but slow bombs and is a relative sleeper on the feet. In his noine fight UFC career, he has some impressive wins on his resume, including Andrei Arlovski and a TKO over Marcin Tybura. However, he’s coming off a TKO loss to The Weekly KO’s own, Chris Daukaus.

Across from Shamil will be Sergei Pavlovich, a guy who had a fight scheduled against Tom Aspinall fall through last year. This guy has Dim Mak touch of death hands. It ain’t pretty, Pavlovich’s striking, but it’s deadly. Pavlovich carries his hands low and throws from unorthodox awkward angles. He throws his hooks with his elbow higher than his hand, creating a downward chopping motion that cuts through handguards. This is a sneaky way to land when the opponent thinks they’re covered up and protected.

Sergei is 14-1, his only loss coming in his UFC debut to Alistair Overeem. Overeem took Pavlovich down and immediately melted him with heavy ground and pound. It wasn’t a good look for Pavlovich, but he rebounded with back-to-back first-round TKO/KO’s. Shamil should look to clinch and trip Pavlovich to the mat, but Shamil has time and again shown that he likes to stand and bang. This one won’t go the distance. Have one of these guys on your roster. Give me Sergei Pavlovich via TKO, round two. On wax.

Winner: Sergei Pavlovich | Method: TKO Rd.2

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

On paper, this card is one-sided slaughter. I've never seen so many heavy favorites. This might be the first time there's only a single Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper. Heavy lies the crown. Paul Craig (+160) is the man with a legit shot at pulling off a notable upset. Craig has the submission game to sub a man who has been forced to tap five times in his career. It's rare to see a fighter who prefers to work from his back; against Paul Craig, the top position isn't an advantage. Ask Magomed Ankalaev; Craig is a submission threat until the final bell.

Pick 'Em

Molly McCann (-135) vs. Luana Carolina (+115)

Winner: Molly McCann

 Method: Decision

Mike Grundy (-180) vs. Makwan Amirkhani (+155)

Winner: Mike Grundy

 Method: Decision

Jack Shore (+100) vs. Timur Valiev (-120)

    Winner: Timur Valiev

 Method: Decision

Cory McKenna (-235) vs. Elise Reed (+190)

    Winner: Cory McKenna

 Method: Decision

Nathaniel Wood (-310) vs. Vince Morales (+245)

    Winner: Nathaniel Wood

 Method: Decision

Muhammad Mokaev (-360) vs. Cody Durden (+290)

    Winner: Muhammad Mokaev

 Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning