We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

As I’m writing this, it’s Father’s Day, and it’s ironic I’m thinking about all-time great streaks. They were right (whoever they are) when they said all good things come to an end. For thirty-five straight years, I batted 1.000 before joining the prestigious Fathers club. It’s been two and a half years since my DiMaggio-like streak came to a halt, but it’s been the greatest two and a half years of my life.

Speaking of DiMaggio, that’s one streak that’ll never be broken; a 56 game hit-streak. I couldn’t make contact 56 consecutive times at the Family Fun Center batting cages with the pitching machine turned off and the ball chilling on a tee.

I’m an Angels fan, but I still hold the 2016 Chicago Cubs in high regard. They ended a one hundred and eight-year World Series drought and every day since have provided me with the hope that the Dallas Cowboys will one day end their current twenty-six-year Super Bowl winless streak.

In 2014 the UConn women’s basketball team began a one hundred eleven game winning streak, which translated to eight hundred sixty-seven days between L’s. Pick a game, any game. Unless you’re playing tetherball against Tyrion Lannister, you aren’t winning one hundred eleven straight games of anything.

A lot is made of Floyd Mayweather’s perfect 50-0 record, but few mention Julio Cesar Chavez went 87-0 before taking his first L. Sure, a large portion of that eighty-seven was filler, a collection of Boxcar Willies and Campbell soup cans, but the only thing harder than winning eight-seven straight fist fights is beating Mike Tyson on Mike Tyson’s Punch-Out.

It was the end of the second round when I realized Dan Ige wasn’t willing to risk losing emphatically to win emphatically. Instead, he placed a higher value on losing 50-45 on the scorecards than going down swinging and waking up on the stool. As a result, my epic main event-winning streak ended at noine, one shy of double digits.

It was a hell of a streak, one that I’ll glance fondly at in the rearview from time to time, remembering how special it was. Objects in the mirror are closer than they appear, so they’re never too far out of reach. But looking back is the cousin of living in the past, and dabbling with both tends to make it awkward at family functions. So I stay looking forward. It’s easier that way, and ahead always lays a new streak. Because that’s the thing about streaks, they begin as quickly as they end. This weekend, the journey to double digits begins with Alexander Volkov vs. Ciryl Gane.

Alexander Volkov (+135 ) vs. Ciryl Gane (-165)

Volkov: DK: $7.5k, FD: $ | Gane: DK: $8.7k, FD: $

The winner of Alexander Volkov vs. Ciryl Gane will likely be in a position to challenge the winner of Derrick Lewis vs. Francis Ngannou for the heavyweight title. Jonny Bones Jones is the x-factor in the division, but he’s stuck in limbo with contract negotiations, and there’s no timetable for his return to the Octagon. However you mix and match the possible matchups, they all make for exciting stand-up wars. Volkov vs. Gane is reminiscent of a throwback K-1 kickboxing match with tiny gloves.

Ciryl Gane is the most dynamic striker in the heavyweight division since Cain Velasquez. He’s a mad scientist’s perfect concoction of technical skill and absurd athletic ability. Gane is a Frankenstein of sorts, freakishly sewn together with parts and pieces salvaged from recycling bins found in every combat sports discipline, and paraded around the Octagon like a Leatherface victim fashion show. He has the fight IQ of a Max Holloway, the hands of a Conor McGregor, the kicks of a Wonderboy Thompson and Israel Adesanya, and the MMA wrestling of a Bones Jones in his back pocket.

Gane moves like a middleweight, light and agile with perpetual lateral movement, and pumps his jab like a boxer to dominate the pocket from the outside. He mixes in long-range up-the-middle kicks and power round kicks. Teeps (or footjabs) can be thrown defensively to disrupt timing and manage range and offensively to cause damage. Ciryl uses stabbing teeps that function as a jab on the outside and are very useful when thrown to the body and can sap a fighter’s energy real quick. Go back and watch Conor McGregor’s fight against Chad Mendez if you want to see a perfect example of this.

Ciryl Gane is 5-0 in the UFC and made his debut after only three professional MMA fights. He has three finishes in those five fights but is coming off a very cautious, rather dull five-round win against Jairzinho Rozenstruik. But a win is a win, and we saw three weeks ago when Rozenstruik KO’d Augusto Sakai in the first round why Gane chose to fight Rozenstruik from the outside and took few risks. The key to this fight for Gane will be his wrestling. Alexander Volkov falls over and becomes a projectile from a light breeze; his takedown defense is Charles Barkley “turble.”

Alexander Volkov is a long kickboxer who uses his reach well and has a ton of experience fighting big power punchers and neutralizing them. He’s 7-2 in the UFC and was ten seconds away from 8-1 when Derrick Lewis KO’d him with a Hail Mary right hand in the waning seconds of their fight in 2018. His only other loss was to Curtis Blaydes. It was a fight that was continually interrupted by the FCC due to borderline NC-17 content. The boring affair featured Curtis Blaydes scoring takedown after takedown, to the tune of fourteen total, and maintaining less than professional top control for the duration.

Volkov has excellent long striking, using his jab and front snap kicks to the body to control range. He uses his up-the-middle kicks similar to Gane; he KO’d Walt Harris with a devastating teep to the body that led to Volkov finishing him with punches on the mat. Volkov chips away with front body kicks more than he attacks the body with his hands, but he’ll have to be careful because Gane will be looking to catch them to take him down.

The fight is simple for Volkov; stay on his feet. The fact that Blaydes scored fourteen takedowns against Volkov shows Volkov can scramble back to his feet, but that’s also time spent not scoring any offense. Volkov uses very short basic combinations and works well off his jab, and is an accumulative fighter. He doesn’t really possess one-punch power, but he’s precise and overwhelms opponents with consistent peppering shots. I think fighters are surprised by Volkov’s deceptive quickness because Volkov has a way of throwing his punches with no tells, providing little reaction time for opponents.

Volkov’s nickname is Drago, but that’s a facetious nickname; that’s like calling me Stephen King. He’s nothing like the man who killed Apollo Creed in the ring, but he’s a sleeper in the division nonetheless. At the end of the day, when it’s all said and done, when push comes to shove, Ciryl Gane is the better all-around fighter with more options to win. If Gane can’t score takedowns, this could turn into a classic banger real quick. Gane will be looking to make a statement after he let slip an opportunity to distance himself from the pack against Rozenstruik. Volkov is hoping to continue flying under the radar and catch Gane slipping as he has done to fighters his entire career. If Volkov wins, it will have to be by TKO/KO, while Gane can choose a more conservative route. On wax, Ciryl Gane via decision.

Winner: Ciryl Gane | Method: Decision

Tanner Boser (-170 ) vs Ovince St. Preux (+140)

Boser: DK: $8.3k, FD:$ | OSP: DK:$7.9k, FD:$

OSP is the most perplexing fighter in the UFC, and if you only take away one piece of advice from the Weekly Knockout, be it this: never ever ever bet on Ovince St. Preux. Don’t do it. Just when you start to believe in OSP, he never fails to let you down; he comes out flat and is unwilling to engage until the final bell and the light at the end of the tunnel is within reach. And then there are times when OSP looks like Desmond Miles, an assassin with long unorthodox kicks and punches.

Case in point, OSP dominated and KO’d Alonzo Menifield viciously last September only to come back and get smoked by Jamahal Hill in December. OSP is the Six Flags Magic Mountain of Octagon performances; the highs all lead into free falls.

St. Preux’s striking is dynamic, mixing unorthodox boxing and stance switches with a variety of kicks. OSP’s major malfunction is lack of aggression and unwillingness to throw anything for long stretches. But an unrated part of OSP’s game is his wrestling and submissions. His special move is a choke partially named for him, the Von Preux choke. When you attack a guillotine from your back and hold onto it even after the opponent passes your legs into half guard or side mount, the choke can be used against you. The opponent on top can use his shoulder to clamp down on your throat while using your own arm to choke you. OSP has used the Von Preux choke to finish four fights in the UFC.

OSP was originally scheduled to fight at light heavyweight, but a late change in opponents now has OSP fighting at heavyweight against Tanner Boser, who fought just three weeks ago. Tanner is a very middle-of-the-road type of fighter. You forget about a Tanner Boser fight as soon as the final bell sounds.

At his best, Boser is a young up-and-comer with pep in his step and fire in his hands. He’s small for the heavyweight division and moves like a light heavyweight with sneaky hand speed and deceptive power. Boser is coming off consecutive losses and needs a win like I need a bowl right meow. His output has been the problem in his last two bouts; he’s just not busy enough throughout the fight. As a result, Boser loses close fights that were well within his reach if he had just pulled the trigger more often.

Toss-up. Why? OSP, that’s why. OSP, at his best, destroys Tanner Boser. But sleepwalking OSP will find the L in a heaping pile of W’s. Boser is entering as the (-145) favorite, and for that reason alone, I like OSP’s value in this fight. Here I go breaking Weekly Knockout rule #1… OSP via decision, on wax.

Winner: Ovince St. Preux | Method: Decision

Timur Valiev (+180) vs. Raoni Barcelos (-225)

Valiev: DK: $7.4k, FD:$ | Barcelos: DK: $8.8k, FD:$

All you need to know about Barcelos is that he has a win over a Nurmagomedov. In a technical war against the highly touted Said Nurmagomedov, Barcelos was a step ahead on the feet and in the grappling. Although the ground exchanges were brief, Barcelos managed to take Nurmagomedov’s back twice in the fight after scoring two takedowns. Barcelos is a Gandolf on the mat, and he has the striking to match.

The resemblance to Jose Aldo is uncanny; Barcelos's stance and leg kicks are almost identical to Aldo’s, and they both have tight, technical boxing. Pedro Rizzo is an OG UFC fighter who is known for being one of the greatest leg kickers of all time; he is Barcelos's head coach, and Barcelos uses the same techniques Rizzo was known for. Raoni counters the jab with low kicks and will fire a lead hook off it and finish with another low kick. Raoni Barcelos has a championship-caliber ceiling, and this fight against Timur Valiev could be one that we see again in the future as Valiev also has top contender potential.

Timur Valiev was on the wrong end of possibly the biggest upset in 2020. Valiev looked like a dynamo straight out of the movie The Running Man in the first round against Trevin Jones. Valiev all but finished Jones with a barrage of punches and kicks, but Jones survived, and as the Falcons did against my Cowboys in week four last year, Valiev watched the onside kick travel to the forty-yard line without jumping on it. He went on to get KO’d midway through the second round in stunning fashion.

All that being said, this guy pushes a heavy pace and utilizes every tool legally permitted inside the cage. He has some of the best wrestler striking you’ll see with short, explosive combos and a fight-changing right hand. Valiev also likes to use leg kicks, but he doesn’t use them in combination with his hands like Barcelos does. Overall, his striking is a lot like Chad Mendez’s or Michael Chandler’s, and he’s more than capable of winning fights solely on the feet. But Timur also has strong wrestling/grappling, and if this fight goes to the ground, it could be more entertaining than the stand-up.

This will be a highly competitive fight, and I don’t see either fighter scoring a finish, but I think Barcelos is just a tad better all-around than Valiev. Raoni Barcelos via decision.

Winner: Raoni Barcelos | Method: Decision

Andre "Touchy" Fili (-230 ) vs Daniel Pineda (+185)

Fili: DK: $8.9k, FD:$ | Pineda: DK: $7.3k, FD:$

Banger. Andre Fili is the old man from scene twenty-four who asks you five questions, I mean, three questions before crossing the bridge of death. He’s a gatekeeper. Besides having the best nickname in MMA, Fili has had a hell of a sixteen-fight UFC career dating back to 2013. Although his 9-7 UFC record isn’t overwhelmingly impressive, Fili has fought almost every big name in the featherweight division.

Fili has underrated dynamic striking and can fight naturally out of both stances. A lot of fighters who switch stances are what I call hand towel southpaws. It’s just for show and has no practical use, like the hand towels you’re not allowed to use to dry your hands. Fili uses practical stance switches that he uses tactically to set up specific strikes like head kicks and overhands, depending on the opponent’s defensive weaknesses.

On the mat, Fili is a seasoned grappler with excellent defensive Jiu-Jitsu and is tough to take down unless you’re Bryce Mitchell. Andre isn’t a big finisher, but he uses a high output and can score a lot of significant strikes over fifteen minutes. The key for Fili will be defending Daniel Pineda’s leg kicks. If Fili is unable to defend them, he could be compromised early. His stance switching style will come in handy if Pineda can damage one of his legs.

Daniel Pineda is a wild, unpredictable striker who uses aggression to enhance his attacks. He has submissions from the top and scrambles from the bottom and has no glaring holes in his overall game. In his re-debut last year, Pineda TKO’d the elite grappler, Herbert Burns. He out-grappled Burns on the mat and worked his way to the mount, where he finished Burns with elbows from the top. The shocker in that fight wasn't that Pineda dominated the stand-up but that he dominated the grappling exchanges. Pineda’s gaudiest stat, all twenty-seven of his professional wins have come by stoppage, eighteen via submission.

Pineda is coming off a KO loss to Cub Swanson last December, and in many ways, Fili is a lot like Swanson and will pose similar problems that Swanson did. Pineda had early success attacking Cub’s lead leg, and it looked like Cub was in serious trouble by the end of the first round. But Pineda slowed heavily in the second round, and Cub caught Pineda throwing lazy strikes.

The key for Pineda is to attack the legs early and come over the top with power punches and look for opportunities to score takedowns. For Fili, the key will be managing distance from the outside and getting the fight to the later rounds, where he’ll have a decided cardio advantage. Pineda’s value is in his finishing abilities, and Fili’s value will be in scoring significant strikes. Have one of these guys on your roster. Andre Fili via decision.

Winner: Andre Fili | Method: Decision

Nicolas Dalby (+110 ) vs Tim Means (-130)

Dalby: DK: $7.8k, FD:$ |Means: DK:$ 8.4k, FD:$

Tim Means is a savvy Vet with over forty professional fights to his name, including twenty-four appearances in the Octagon. He’s a high-volume striker, averaging close to five significant strikes landed per minute, who continually touches his opponents with peppering shots to break down their defenses. Tim Means carries takedowns in his back pocket just in case he finds himself at a disadvantage on the feet. His all-around game makes him a tough out for anyone in the division and a formidable gatekeeper.

Like Brandon Moreno did at UFC 263 against Deiveson Figueiredo, Tim Means battered Mike Perry with jabs from the outside in his most recent bout. He put on a jab Master Class, often throwing four to five jabs at a time. It’s difficult to get into a rhythm as a striker with a fist constantly in your face. You could say Means was Castor Troy with the jab; he took Mike Perry’s face… off. When you use the jab to set up your power shots, you don’t have to load up and can land at a higher rate. The big hole in Tim’s striking is his stance and posture. He hunches over, and his head naturally leads his body and hangs perilously in the center and lower than his shoulders like a speed bag waiting to be blasted.

Nicolas Dalby is an aggressive power striker with a hybrid boxing/kickboxing/karate style. He has an extra-wide stance and is light on his lead foot, which allows him to throw range establishing side-kicks while using his rear leg to throw heavy round kicks. Dalby’s boxing is solid, and his right hand from either stance is a fight-ender, and he likes to fight with his lead hand almost fully extended and uses it as a frame. The frame makes it difficult for fighters to navigate around to close the distance.

Stance switching seems to be a theme on this card, and Dalby is another who tactically switches to the southpaw stance, giving his opponents extended looks from the goofy foot stance to take advantage of the opponent’s defensive holes. He fights long and rarely gets drawn into firefights in the pocket, but he’s highly susceptible to leg kicks with his wide stance. Dalby is more than capable of taking the fight to the ground and will mix in takedown attempts to keep the opponent guessing. But he doesn’t commit to his takedowns the way he does to his striking.

Dalby is coming off an impressive win against Daniel Rodriguez last November and is in his second stint with the UFC. He will have a power advantage against Means and is overall a more dynamic striker. This is an undercover banger and should remain standing for the duration. I think a finish for either fighter is unlikely, but Dalby’s power gives him a better opportunity of ending it before the final bell. Nicolas Dalby via decision.

Winner: Nicolas Dalby | Method: Decision

Jai Herbert (+200 ) vs Renato Moicano (-250)

Herbert: DK: $6.8k, FD:$ |Moicano: DK:$9.4k, FD:$

Kalvin Kattar, Jeremy Stephens, and Cub Swanson are some impressive names in Renato Moicano’s win column. But there are also notable losses to Jose Aldo, The Korean Zombie, and Brian Ortega. Moicano was five minutes away from a possible title shot in 2017 when he dominated the first two rounds against Brian Ortega. In the third, Moicano managed to wrestle defeat from the hands of victory when he inexplicably attempted a lazy takedown in the third round after dominating the standup and tapped to a guillotine choke.

Very reminiscent of Charles Oliveira, Moicano has traditional Brazillian upright Muay Thai with heavy leg kicks and straight, sharp punches. He needs space to work and excels from outside the pocket; he will be at a power and speed disadvantage on the feet and will not want to get caught exchanging in the pocket with Jai Herbert. Moicano has a naturally squared stance that leaves a lot of surface area to attack the body. Jose Aldo used the lead-hand liver punch to crumble Moicano into the fetal position when they fought in 2019.

All seven of Moicano’s professional finishes have come via submission, and he is particularly handy with Rear-Naked Chokes. Moicano should shake things up and adjust his usually striking heavy game plan and look to clinch, work under hooks, and try to drag Herbert to the mat.

Jai Herbert is a solid technical kickboxer who is 0-1 in the UFC. In his debut against Francisco Trinaldo, Herbert was sacrificed to a lion like in The Ghost and the Darkness. That fight was famous for Herb Dean almost letting Herbert die before stopping it after Trinaldo landed a decapitating left hand. Herbert hung in the air unconscious like a David Carradine Halloween decoration on your door before falling over stiff with rigor mortis set in.

Herbert has an overall 10-2 record, and noine of those ten victories were via stoppage, eight TKO/KO’s, and one submission. I haven’t seen a lot of Herbert, but he looks to have a fight-ending right hand and uses traditional hand and kick combinations. Before Trinaldo sent him to the shadow realm, Herbert was very competitive with Trinaldo, both in the stand-up and defending takedowns. As the (+200) dog, he might be worth a long shot. Moicano has been finished three of his last four fights, and his chin is showing signs of heavy wear and tear.

But I’m rolling with Moicano with zero uncertainty. His best chance to finish the fight is on the mat; I don’t see him finishing Herbert on the feet. I think he’ll control just enough of the fight on the mat to eke out a decision. Renato Moicano via decision.

Winner: Renato Moicano | Method: Decision

Prelims

Highlighted Matchup

Danilo Marques (+100) vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (-120)

Marques: DK: $8k, FD:$ | Nzechukwu: DK: $8.2k, FD:$  

This is the Westminster Dog Show of one-trick ponies. Does that make sense? Kennedy Kzecjklwthcn is all striking and no grappling, while Danilo Marques is all grappling and no striking. Marques has traditional January 1st cardio and is usually bent over, head between his legs, sucking air and begging for orange slices and Capri Suns after the first round. If he can’t get Kennedy to the ground and finish him within the first seven or so minutes, he’s going to be near useless for the remainder of the fight.

I say that to say this: Marques has deadly Jiu-Jitsu and suffocating wrestling from the clinch. When he gets the body lock, he’s excellent at dragging the opponent to the mat and immediately taking the back. Marques is a position over submission grappler with little ground and pound from the top. Danilo takes his time and slowly works his opponents into bad positions where he can capitalize with chokes. On the feet… Plaza Level, Row M, Seat 32 at Ball Arena. That’s where Danilo’s striking is best suited.

Kennedy Nzechukwu is a long, gangly striker who’s 2-1 in the UFC with a win on The Contender Series. His only loss was to Paul Craig, and Kennedy managed to make it to the third round without any limbs getting folded into origami cranes. However, he was submitted by a triangle but was smart enough to tap before the dark place descended upon him. His last fight in March against Carlos Ulberg was an absolute banger. Kennedy had to survive a beating before KO’ing Ulberg late in the second round.

Nzech isn’t the most technical striker, especially defensively, but he stays busy and chips away with varying intensity of punches. He can throw his punches straight and wing them at odd angles over the top. If he can stay on his feet and get this fight into the late second and third rounds, he will be at a massive advantage on the feet. That’s a big if, though.

At opening, this fight is a pick ‘em at (-110) for both fighters. Translation: this is an absolute toss-up. I think both fighters have good shots at a finish, Danilo Marques with an early submission and Kennedy Nzechukwu with a late TKO/KO stoppage. I’m reluctantly taking Marques to get the fight to the mat early and get to Kennedy’s back. Danilo Marques via rear-naked choke, round one.

Winner: Danilo Marques | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.1

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

This is an ugly card, homies. I might have to save a Jackson and live to bet another day. It's slim pickings for underdogs with traversable paths to victory on this one. But this is the motley crew we were dealt, and we'll make the most of it.

Renato Moicano has been on a steady downward slide for several fights now, and Jai Herbert is a hungry young fighter looking to make a name for himself and has the kickboxing to cause Moicano problems. At (+200), Herbert has long-shot value, especially if he can stay on his feet. Daniel Pineda (+185) is a lot to handle, especially early in the fight. His leg kicks can even the playing field real quick, and he loves a firefight and engaging in 50/50 winner-takes-all exchanges. Come Saturday, if the Andy Jackson in my pocket starts talking ish, and I find the urge to slap him face down on the table, I'm going with Timur Valiev. I'm picking Raoni Barcelos to win the fight, and I believe he's the better fighter, but Valiev has explosive hands, and speed is the hardest attribute to overcome. At (+185), Valiev has some value on the feet, and if he can score takedowns and steal some top control time.

Pick 'Em

Michel Prazeres (+230 ) vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov (-290 )

Winner: Shavkat Rakhmonov

 Method: Decision 

Warlley Alves (-240 ) vs. Jeremiah Wells (+190 )

Winner: Warlley Alves

 Method: Decision

Marcin Prachnio (-210 ) vs. Ike Villanueva (+170)

Winner: Marcin Prachnio

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Julia Avila (-360) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (+270)

    Winner: Julia Avila

 Method: Decision

Justin Jaynes (+140 ) vs. Charles Rosa (-170 )

    Winner: Charles Rosa

 Method: Triangle Choke Rd.2

Damir Hadzovic (-145 ) vs. Yancy Modeiros (+120 )

    Winner: Yancy Modeiros

 Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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