We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Main Card

Stephen Thompson (-110 ) vs. Geoff Neal (-120)

Wonderboy: DK: $7.8k, FD: $20 | Neal: DK: $8.4k, FD: $19

UFC 256 was dope, literally. I was “cheesing” like Kenny McCormick after taking a shot of cat urine to the face by the time Charles Oliveira and Tony Ferguson entered the cage to the tepid applause of the camera crew in attendance.

In mid-March, none of this seemed possible; I sat atop a throne of Quilted Charmin Mega Rolls and watched all of the major sports associations remove their caches from public consumption. The NCAA basketball tournament was canceled completely, with no glass slippers, no “One Shining Moment,” no tears of joy when Duke goes down, nothing. But when the world needed a hero, needed a glimmer of light to vanquish the shadows of despair slowly blanketing the earth, one emerged. Dana White.

With the entire sports world falling around him, Dana found himself the sudden sole survivor of a bitter turf war. When all of the sports junkies across the globe writhed and contorted in pain in their living rooms from withdrawals, Dana stood out on the corner, slangin’ the product, the fix we all needed. And he continued to do so week after week, putting on events every weekend for five straight months.

He refused to vacate on account of increased public scrutiny and maintained a direct lifeline between the fans and the precious spice melange. Mr. White put on UFC Fight Night Brasilia back in April, signaling to the world the return of sports, and more importantly, like Jay-Z, Dana laid out the blueprint for other major sports to follow.

If Dana has been the supplier, the fighters have been the supply, and they’ve more than done their part. Zhang Weili vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker, Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje, Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier III, Josh Emmett vs. Shane Burgos, Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno, and the return of Khabib; what a bleepin’ year!

In the same way, a junkie sneaks into the bathroom one final time before being hauled off to rehab, we’ve reached the last hit, the dust lining the bottom of the bag; Wonderboy Thompson vs. Geoff Neal will be the last UFC card of 2020.

We had seen Karate styles implemented at a high level in the UFC before Stephen Thompson made his debut in 2012. Lyoto Machida won the light heavyweight belt with a Karate style, but Wonderboy was at one time considered the best Karate competitor in the world. In 2006 he was the number one ranked fighter in Chuck Norris’ World Combat League, The Chuck Norris. His professional Karate record stands at an unblemished 58-0, and since, he has found a way to optimize karate in MMA, having competed twice for the UFC welterweight title, and was robbed both times.

Wonderboy manipulates distance with lead leg sidekicks and well-timed blitzes from outside the pocket. He has maintained his point-fighting technique, looking to leap into range with quick, short combinations before leaping back out of striking range. Thompson switches stances often but is most effective from the southpaw stance; when has an opponent hurt or shelled up defensively, he will quickly switch to southpaw and look to land his left-side attacks, his power attacks.

Power, I say that relatively speaking, Wonderboy doesn’t have a lot of power; he has surprise. He hurts you with strikes you don’t see coming; for example, against an orthodox fighter, he can throw his lead leg behind his jab hiding the kick from view as he brings it over his opponent’s lead shoulder.

Against a technical power striker like Geoff Neal, Wonderboy will have to fix some large holes in his standup. He has a tendency to retreat along the cage with his hands down and head straight up, trapping himself and leaving himself open to take heavy damage. If Geoff Neal catches him with his hands down like that, it’s a wrap, the sparkly bows and fancy garlands, all that.

In his last fight, Geoff Neal ran over Mike “Platinum” Perry like Suge Knight looking for parking. That was exactly a year ago, and with his return, he brings championship-caliber standup to the welterweight division. He has a 13-2 professional record, his last loss coming in 2017 outside of the UFC against… Mr. 2020 himself, Kevin Holland. Another Contender Series alumni, Neal has gone a perfect 6-0 in the UFC since his debut on the show shortly after the Holland loss in 2017.

The fight will be a battle of zones, varying striking ranges, as both fighters like to work in space but have different means of closing the distance. Also a southpaw, Neal uses tight, technical combinations and relies on his left hand to slip into range, while Wonderboy uses quick blitzes before retreating. Neal attacks with 2-3 punch combinations and hides his power hand behind his jab well. His left leg changes fights, and his left hand changes lives.

Neal doesn’t have elite wrestling, but he’s more than capable of taking Wonderboy down, and from the top, Neal’s strikes are just as devastating as his standup. Wonderboy has excellent takedown defense, supplemented with continual lateral movement, but the threat of a takedown alone can change a fight.

Both fighters have striking outputs conducive to scoring solid fantasy numbers, especially in a five-round fight. Neal averages six significant strikes landed per min and Wonderboy averages four and recorded one hundred thirty-eight in his last fight against Vicente Luque. This is such a tough fight to call. Wonderboy’s loss to Anthony Pettis and his tendency to get caught exchanging with his hands down and head straight up scares me. I’m reluctantly taking Geoff Neal via second-round TKO, and a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.

Winner: Geoff Neal | Method: TKO Rd.2

Jose Aldo (-150 ) vs Marlon Vera (+120)

Aldo: DK: $8.6k, FD: $18 | Vera: DK:$7.6k, FD: $13

*Fight OF The Night Runner Up*

Sound the alarms. Banger Alert. The legend versus the “Sugar” Sean O’Malley hype train de-railer. Jose Aldo is, without a doubt, in the upper echelon, a resident in the pantheon of MMA GOAT’s. He helped usher the lower weight classes back into the UFC as the WEC champion before becoming the first UFC featherweight champion. He was undefeated for nearly a decade before Conor McGregor ended that in thirteen seconds.

Since the McGregor fight, Aldo is 3-5 and riding the caboose of a three-fight losing streak. Aldo’s last fight was this past summer, a title shot against the new Champion Petr Yan. Aldo surprised many with how competitive he was against the heavy favorite, Yan, and after the second round, Aldo looked like he may once again wear the belt. But his cardio failed him, and he lost his infamous leg kicks as quickly as he had found them.

The knock on Aldo for several years has been his reluctance to throw leg kicks, arguably the most potent weapon in his arsenal. Against Yan, Aldo attacked the legs like 2012 Aldo, and Yan was visibly compromised before taking over the fight in the third round when Aldo inexplicably went away from throwing kicks. Aldo is still ferocious, aggressive, and changes levels with his attacks like a pro boxer, and still very dangerous. Aldo may never win another belt, but he makes for some wild matchups like this one against Marlon Vera.

On this here newsletter, the best newsletter in MMA, I wrote off Marlon Vera literally, figuratively, and metaphorically before his last fight against Sean O’Malley. Upon the conclusion, I even dry hated, saying O’Malley injured himself and the fight should have been ruled a no-contest after I picked O’Malley to annihilate Vera. I can admit when I’m wrong, and Marlon Vera beat O’Malley, no excuses. Vera landed what might be the most devastating strike in MMA, the low calf kick, and it literally paralyzed O’Malley’s foot, rendering it useless and leaving O’Malley defenseless.

Marlon Vera is a slow starter and has lost some close decisions because of it, but he has never been finished in his twenty-four-fight career. Vera can fight from a distance and can also thrive in a firefight, using shovel hooks on the inside and long straight punches from the outside. He uses a variety of peppering kicks to set up his hands and aggression to fill the gaps in his technique. On the mat, Vera is a gifted grappler with the same aggression he shows on his feet. Weaknesses, Vera tends to carry his hands low with little head movement and takes a lot of damage in the pocket because of it.

I would be surprised if this fight doesn’t remain standing for the duration. I think Aldo will look good early, but Vera will hang around and have his moments late. Coin flip. I’ll take Aldo to come out aggressive, hopefully utilizing heavy leg attacks, and eke out a decision victory. I don’t think you can go wrong with either guy, but if I were looking for a possible finish for my Fantasy roster, Marlon Vera is the best move. On wax, Jose Aldo via decision.

Winner: Jose Aldo | Method: Decision

Michel Pereira (-130) vs. Khaos Williams (+100)

Pereira: DK: $8.3k, FD: $15 | Khaos: DK: $7.9k, FD: $16

*Fight Of The Night*

2020 is going out with a bang. This is literally one of the craziest matchups the UFC could make, and it comes at the perfect time as both fighters have had recent wins; Khaos nearly caught a murder-two rap in his most recent fight last month.

If you’ve never seen Michel Pereira fight, stop right now, and google his fight against Tristan Connelly. Just watch the first round, and you’ll know all you need to know about Pereira. He literally came out doing an Olympic gymnastics floor routine complete with backflips and attacks off the cage. He brings Cirque Du Soliel to the Octagon without the trapeze and weird costumes. In the Connelly fight, Pereira landed a rolling thunder kick that hurt Connelly, and also successfully executed a backflip guard pass.

However, once the theatrics are finished, he gasses hard and isn’t much of a threat except in spurts. He’s a lot like Yoel Romero in how he fights in short stretches. His hands aren’t. It’s just one hand; he uses only his right hand almost exclusively. He doesn’t throw combos or put punches together like a traditional boxer/kickboxer. He’s terrible in the pocket, and he only has winging punches and no defense. He uses Capoeira movements to try to hypnotize his opponents and lull them into becoming spectators and then explodes on them.

Khaos Williams is 2-0 in the UFC and has spent less than a minute in the Octagon. I said before his last fight against Abdul Alhassan, Khaos Williams has major holes in his striking. The biggest flaw, Khaos drops his hands when he engages and extends his head up in the air like an alleged peeping Tom trying to get a better view. Khaos has the habit of over pursuing and reaching with punches, often causing his feet to leave the ground. Overall, he has bad fundamentals, BUT he has deadly power and could possibly KO anyone in the division from the draft created by a missed punch.

There’s little to no chance of this fight going the distance. If Pereira gets caught leaping into the pocket with his hands down, it’s a wrap. For Pereira, the longer the fight goes, the more holes he’ll have to expose. And if Khaos gets stuck on the outside, Pereira can hit him with big shots while staying outside the danger zone. Put it on wax, Michel Pereira via TKO, round two.

Winner: Michel Pereira | Method: TKO Rd.2

Marlon Moraes (-150 ) vs Rob Font (+120)

Moraes: DK: $9k, FD: $18 | Font: DK: $7.2k, FD: $11

This is a batting practice fastball for Marlon Moraes. In October, Cody Sandhagen strapped on his gasoline boots, fully outfitted in flame retardant turnout gear, expecting to have to walk through hell against Moraes, but wound up looking ridiculous when he ended up taking a stroll on a white sandy beach just before sunset. Sandhagen walked right through Moraes and showed no respect for the Brazillian’s world-class striking.

The knock against Moraes has always been his moped-sized gas tank; he dominated the Triple Champ, Henry Cejudo, in the first round of their fight, before fading in the second and getting finished in the third. Against Sandhagen, he attempted to switch his whole style and came out much less aggressive, actually pacing himself for the first time in his career. It didn’t work. It’s not him; your supposed to have to survive Marlon Moraes early and hope you aren’t too damaged to take over in the late rounds. In Rob Font, Moraes has a far less dangerous opponent who Moraes should be better than in every area except cardio.

If Rob Font were a literal font, he would be Times New Roman; nothing fancy, rather boring yet professional and fairly versatile. There’s nothing flashy to his game, but he’s a sound all-around fighter who can stand and bang and mix it up on the mat. He’s a veteran, Rob Font, with a 7-3 record in the UFC and on a two-fight win streak.

Font will be the higher volume striker, averaging over five significant strikes landed per minute, while Moraes averages less than three and a half. Could this be a trap fight? Yeah, it definitely could be. He has enough standup to survive into the later rounds, where he can push the pace and mix in takedowns. The magic number seems to be about two minutes left in the second round; after that, Moraes usually has to limp to the finish line.

Rob Font will be a lower-tier fighter who can reach high significant strike totals, and Moraes will offer the possibility of a finish but usually tops out around fifty significant strikes landed per fight. I’m taking Moraes via TKO, round two—with three mins left on the clock.

Winner: Marlon Moraes | Method: TKO Rd.2

Gillian Robertson (-110 ) vs Taila Santos (-120)

Robertson: DK: $8k, FD: $16 | Santos: DK: $8.2k, FD: $14

The classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Gillian Robertson is the latter with a 9-4 overall record and six wins by submission. She has quietly amassed a 6-2 UFC record and has won four of her last five fights, her lone loss coming to the highly touted Maycee Barber. Robertson's striking is mostly for show, like the towels in the bathroom that your wife won't let you dry your hands on.

Because her striking is subpar, Robertsons has to get creative and uses clever tricks like pulling her opponent into half-guard to work her way into a standing clinch, where she can work single and double legs against the fence. Pulling guard is also in play for Robertson, and when she gets it to the mat, she is a position grappler, hunting for subs rather than looking to ground and pound.

Taila Santos is the female version of Antonio Arroyo, who I'll talk about later. She uses high volumes of kicks and only uses punches as an afterthought. You should know by now that I have a leg kick fetish; they're underutilized yet one of the best ways to take an opponent out of their game plan. Santos has heavy leg kicks, which can compromise Robertson's ability to shoot for takedowns but can also be caught and lead to Santos being taken down.

Robertson will have to avoid the Thai Clinch against Santos; she has deadly knees from the position very reminiscent of Anderson Silva. Her hands, although better than Robertson's, aren't technical, but she does have respectable power and fully commits when she goes forward. Santos is an impressive 16-1 and beat the highly regarded Molly McCann in her last fight this past June.

Odd-wise, this is another pick 'em fight. If Santos can't keep her distance on the outside and remain standing, this is her fight to lose. Robertson is an overachiever and wins fights she has no business winning. Both will be midrange Fantasy roster cap hits, but I think Robertson provides the best chance of getting a stoppage. However, I'm taking Taila Santos by decision.

Winner: Taila Santos | Method: Decision

Marcin Tybura (-105 ) vs Greg Hardy (-125)

Tybura: DK: $7.7k, FD: $15 | Hardy: DK: $8.5k, FD: $15

At the opening, this fight is basically a pick ‘em, and the outcome will be determined by which Marcin Tybura shows up. Will it be the uninspired Tybura who embraces his opponents tenderly and holds them against the cage for fifteen minutes, or will it be the Tybura who moves nimbly outside of the pocket, countering off of angles with his lead hand and mixing in takedowns in the open cage?

Jerry Jones has ruined my life for the better part of the last twenty-five years; his unwillingness to concede control to a capable GM and head coach has cemented us fans in football purgatory. One of the more desperate moves he ever made was the signing of Greg Hardy following his questionable off-field issues; it destroyed the locker room, and Hardy offered nothing on the field. I laughed when he began training for MMA competition, and over the years, that laughter has slowly died down, as Hardy has become a legit mixed martial artist.

Hardy is a gas tank and a couple of Jiu-Jitsu belts away from being a real heavyweight title threat. He has the power to end any fight, but he’s stiff and lumbering and lacks the fluidity of an elite striker. Hardy’s ground game is an uncharted level map, the entirety shaded and unknown, only having been taking down once in his nine-fight UFC career.

Alexander Volkov was Hardy’s stiffest test to date. It was a fight that Hardy lost and showed that Hardy wasn’t quite ready for the top ten level competition. Marcin Tybura will provide another measuring stick for Hardy, and if Tybura wants to win the fight, it should give us a little insight into how advanced Hardy's ground game is.

I was impressed with Tybura’s last performance against the tough Ben Rothwell; he survived Rothwell’s early heavy pressure and took over the fight with superior cardio and better footwork. Once again, we have another complete toss-up. Put it on wax, Marcin Tybura via decision.

Winner: Marcin Tybura | Method: Decision

Prelims

Highlighted Matchups

Anthony Pettis (-240 ) vs. Alex Morono (+190)

Pettis: DK: $9.2k, FD: $20 | Morono: DK: $7k, FD: $10  

Who did Ronnie vote for, and does Anthony Pettis have anything left; the two big questions remaining to be answered as we close out 2020. If you’re a new fan of the sport and are not familiar with Anthony Pettis, you’ve surely seen his highlight of the greatest significant strike ever landed in MMA history; maybe even human history. It was also one of the final strikes ever landed in WEC history. Lots of history. Of course, I’m talking about the jumping ninja kick off of the cage in Pettis’ WEC title fight against Benson Henderson.

Pettis went on to become the UFC Champion as well, but since he lost the belt to Rafael Dos Anjos, Pettis is 5-8. Like his teammate, Tyron Woodley, he inexplicably changed his style from a creative, diverse striker to a guy who backs himself up against the cage like it’s a source of comfort similar to Linus’ blanket. Pettis has never looked good at welterweight, physically and performance-wise, and I was hoping he’d rededicate himself to training and diet and go back down to lightweight. That’s not the case, he’s fighting a very tough Alex Morono at welterweight, and this is definitely the proverbial crossroads fight for Pettis.

I should have jumped on Alex Morono when he opened as the (+270) dog, but I hesitated, and now he’s closed the gap at (+190). If you remove Alex Morono’s fight against Khaos Williams—which lasted three seconds longer than a shot clock violation—he’s a deceptively good striker who has faced tough competition, having fought eleven times in the UFC and recording a 7-3-1 record. He bounces all around the cage, maintaining good lateral movement, and is somewhat reminiscent of Joe Lauzon. Morono flares his elbows out in his stance, which is something Pettis can take advantage of with body kicks from the southpaw stance

Morono is coming off of a fairly dominant win against Rhys McKee last month and is definitely a live dog here. Pettis is coming off of a win as well, against another fighter creeping closer to retirement, Donald Cerrone. Morono is the higher volume striker by two significant strikes landed per minute and landed one hundred and seventy-six in his last fight. I think he outworks Pettis for three rounds; I know I'm the only person in the world taking Alex Morono to win this fight. Alex Morono via decision. Why not?

Winner: Alex Morono | Method: Decision

Karl Roberson (-270 ) vs. Dalcha Lungiambula (+210)

Roberson: DK: $9.3k, FD: $20 | Lungiambula: DK: $6.9k, FD: $9

Karl Roberson and Dalcha Lungiambula are two huge power strikers, and I don’t see much chance of this fight going the distance. Both fighters are coming off L’s; Roberson was smashed by Marvin Vettori this past summer, and Lungiambula ran into the killer that is Magomed Ankalaev and was KO’d by a front kick to the face.

Roberson reminds me a lot of Geoff Neal, a southpaw kickboxer with fight-ending kicks and left hand. He strikes well going backward and has surprising dexterity in his kicks for his size. In the Vetorri fight, he was outwrestled and broke early in the fight, getting TKO’d in the first round. That’s bad news when facing a guy with explosive takedowns like Dalcha Lungiambula.

Lungiambula is also a big power striker but also has good takedowns and heavy top control. He will bite down on his mouthpiece and come forward with aggressive hooks to drive his opponent backward to initiate takedown entries. Dalcha has a bad habit of trying to catch leg kicks; that will only lead to broken arms and getting head kicked, especially against a kicker like Roberson.

Lungiambula will be in the lower salary cap tier, and he easily has the best chance for a finish in that price range. But I’m taking Karl Roberson to work from the outside and eventually land something that will lead to a fight-ending sequence— and I don't want to type Dalcha Lungiambula's name again... damnit. Karl Roberson via TKO, round two.

Winner: Karl Roberson | Method: TKO Rd.2

Fighter to Consider 

Jimmy Flick (-155 ) DK: $8.7k, FD: $17

Jimmy Flick is submission Bob Ross with thirteen career subs in fifteen professional wins. Flick will be facing Cody Durden, who came up through the underground circuit, where his older brother, Tyler, was a legend. This is a bad matchup for Durden who likes to use his wrestling but will be at a big disadvantage on the ground. Pick up Jimmy Flick if you want a second arm triangle submission for your roster.

Sleeper

Antonio Arroyo (-160) DK: $8.9k, FD: $16

If Deron Winn decides to finally implement a game plan that utilizes his biggest strength, wrestling, and he isn't resigned to kickbox for three rounds, this pick could backfire on me. But in three UFC fights, he's failed to do that consistently and subsequently has been a disappointment.

I like the talented kickboxer, Antonio Arroyo, in this fight. An exhibitionist kicker, Arroyo throws naked kicks almost exclusively. The way a good boxer uses his jab, Arroyo throws kicks, a wide variety of them. He has eight finishes in nine professional fights, and for all my OCD heads out there, he has a symmetrical four subs and four TKO/KO’s.

Don’t let the sub's fool you; Arroyo’s not a great grappler, but he scores a lot of knockdowns and capitalizes with opportunistic submissions. Arroyo is judicious with his punches, but they’re quick and powerful and made more effective by the volume of kicks he throws. I’ll take a large number two; a knockdown and a choke with a tap on the side. Antonio Arroyo, Rear-Naked choke, round two.

Pick "Em

Sijara Eubanks (-165 ) vs. Pannie Kianzad (+135 )

Winner: Sijara Eubanks

 Method: Decision

Deron Winn (+130 ) vs. Antonio Arroyo (-160 )

Winner: Antonio Arroyo

 Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Drako Rodriguez (-190) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+155)

Winner: Drako Rodriguez

 Method: Decision

Tafon Nchukwi (-315) vs. Jamie Pickett (+245)

   Winner: Tafon Nchukwi

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Cody Durden (+135) vs. Jimmie Flick (-155)

   Winner: Jimmy Flick

 Method: Arm Triangle Rd.2

Final Thoughts:

That's all folks! The final Weekly Knockout of 2020. Whether you've read one of these, half of one, or all of them, thank you! I hope some New Year's resolutions will include taking a Jitz or Muay Thai class, or even taking Nate Robinson's Bootcamp Cardio Boxing at your local Chuze Fitness. Don't worry, I'll be back. We have some BANGERS coming in mid-January, starting with Max Holloway vs. Calvin Kattar on January 16, followed by the one and only Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier 2. Merry Christmas, homies! See you soon.

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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