We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

UFC 252 Daniel Cormier vs. Stipe Miocic

I’m coming in hot after a career week, going 9-3 (Pick-Em) on the Lewis vs. Oleinik card with three correct round and method calls, and a couple of crucial underdog victories.

Often times, in life, if you don't toot your own horn, there's no music to boogie to. What did we learn from last week’s card? Experience. I valued experience over youthful athleticism and potential. When there’s a fifty-fifty matchup, the level of competition faced should be the deciding factor.

Looking ahead to the next few cards, the crux are filled with debuting fighters from the Contender Series, or from one of the many UFC minor league affiliated promotions. These are the fighters that are going to push your Fantasy game over the top. The problem is, little is known about these fighters. In recent weeks, I’ve been creeping on Instagram profiles just to find a twenty-second highlight of a fighter’s most recent fight. Sometimes that’s the only footage available and all I have to go by. Don’t worry, I’m not hedging my bets or making preemptive excuses for a possible lackluster performance, I’m just letting you know this ish doesn’t come easy.

Punch stats, takedown percentages, and overall win/loss records are useful information, but more important are the organizations he/she has fought in and the level of competition they’ve faced. I’m more likely to pick a 5-3 fighter with four decision wins against high-level competition, than I am a 7-1 fighter with seven KO’s, whose most recent victory was against BJ Penn in an Applebee's parking lot.

But that’s just my two cents, and it’s still a long way from a dollar. I know this MMA Fantasy/betting game is fickle, and you’re only as good as your last pick, so I have a few more heat rocks hidden up my sleeves for this weekend’s card.

Lord Of The Rings, Star Wars, The Godfather, Joe Frazier vs. Muhammad Ali, Arturo Gatti vs. Mickey Ward, Chuck Liddell vs. Randy Couture, Wanderlei Silva vs. Rampage Jackson; all are all-time great trilogies. This weekend we’ll add another to that list, Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier 3.

In the co-main event, we have Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera. When it comes to O’Malley, it’s best to view his future from behind Stevie Wonder’s glasses, and Vera is not a test, he’s a threat. Also at the top of the billing, someone will be auditioning for Aleksei Oleinik’s newly acquired Casper Mattress sponsorship when Junior Dos Santos squares off with Jairzinho Rozenstruik. As always, I'll break down the matchups, give you a straight up pick-em, and I'll sprinkle in some Fantasy thoughts.

Main Card

Daniel Cormier (-115) vs. Stipe Miocic (-105)

Cormier: DK: $8k, FD: $19 | Miocic: DK: $8.2k, FD: $20

The vaunted rubber match with much more than a UFC Heavyweight title on the line, this fight will determine who is the GOAT Heavyweight, hands down. In both fights, Cormier was the better fighter who controlled the majority of the rounds with superior clinch work and more consistent striking.

It would have been interesting to see how the first fight would have played out had Stipe not been caught with his hands down as he broke the clinch in the first round. During both fights, Stipe came out slowly and allowed Cormier to walk him down and enter the pocket without any resistance. Stipe was willing to play patty-cake when Cormier held his hands outstretched to close the gap. If I’m in Stipe’s corner, I’m telling him to make Cormier strap on his gasoline boots and walk through hell to get inside on him. That means utilizing jabs, double jabs, triple jabs, and sprinkling in some more jabs from the outside. Body shots underneath Cormier's outstretched arms would be a good look for Stipe too.

The former double-champ came out the gate on fire in the second fight, mixing up his striking with level changes and leg kicks. Cormier used level change feints to set up his overhand right and to initiate takedown attempts. He landed heavy leg kicks in the first round, but for some reason didn’t throw any after the first five minutes. Wrestling, Cormier forgot all about it after the first round, too. Cormier just relied on headhunting and fell victim to his own success on the feet.

Both fighters are elite wrestlers, but Cormier is better and knowing that, Stipe became a one-dimensional fighter in both contests. Regardless, Stipe needs to take chances getting this fight to the ground and putting Cormier on his back. That will open up his striking and slow Daniel’s forward pressure.

The biggest take away from either fight was the effectiveness of body shots against Cormier. Ahead 3-0 heading into the deciding fourth round, Stipe finally varied his attack, landing liver shot after liver shot, which quickly took their toll on Cormier. Lowering his hands in desperation to block the liver punch, Stipe landed a clean right hand that set the finishing sequence into motion.

Cormier tends to crouch towards his power hand to avoid strikes and uses that movement to shoot his lead hand up to secure a collar tie to initiate the clinch. Bones Jones keyed in on this in their second fight, and KO’d Cormier with a lead-leg head kick after he anticipated that movement. Up the middle strikes such as knees, snap kicks, and uppercuts are highly effective against Cormier.

All that being said, Daniel Cormier is the better fighter. The only question is, with one ass cheek already out the door, is Cormier focused and prepared to wade into deep waters one last time?

If Cormier implements a similar game plan to the ones he used in his fights against Rumble Johnson, he will find a way to finish Stipe once again. He needs to use leg kicks and heavy punches to close the distance and tie Stipe up, the rest is academic; Stipe’s going to the ground. In the second fight, Cormier became complacent and lazy with his standup and started to front-run. This is a tough, tough call… I’m going with Daniel Cormier fourth-round TKO. Someone’s getting finished one way or the other; throw all the stats, charts, graphs, and analytics out the window.

Both fighters have proven they can finish the fight, and the likelihood of a finish from either is very high. I like both fighter's potential to put up good Fantasy numbers because I don't think this fight will end early. Whichever way you're leaning, make sure he's on your roster.

Winner: Daniel Cormier | Method: TKO Rd.4

Sean O'Malley (-300) vs. Marlon Vera (+240)

O'Malley: DK: $9.2k, FD: $21 | Vera: DK: $7k, FD: $10

Ooh wee, we got ourselves a banger right here! This is the perfect fight for one of the UFC’s rising stars, Sean O’Malley. Another roster addition from the Contender Series, and fellow wacky tabaccy connoisseur, O’Malley is on pace to be the first from the show to find himself fighting for a title.

Marlon Vera could mess around and win this fight, but he won’t. But he could. But… he won’t. He’s a slow starter and often times gives up the first round. O’Malley is the opposite; he has eight first-round TKO/KO’s with twelve professional victories. Vera tends to win fights with aggression once he gets warmed up, but he’s not very technical and has big holes in his standup.

Vera holds his hands low naturally in his stance, but they drop further when he engages in prolonged exchanges. He’s a pressure fighter who needs to go forward to be effective. Countering and fighting backward are not Vera’s strengths, and he sometimes reacts with slaps when faced with aggressive forward pressure. Before his last fight in May, against Yadong Song, Vera had recorded five straight finishes. He has good Jiu-Jitsu and attacks submissions from his back, and when standing, attacks well up the middle with kicks and knees.

O’Malley does everything better and recently had two years away from the sport in which he used the time to focus heavily on grappling, competing in professional grappling tournaments. The best way to improve one of your weaknesses is to compete individually in that discipline. The Sugar Show is rangy and fights long, and uses all eight limbs to strike and vary his attacks. He can hit you with the flashy techniques and make the fundamental techniques look flashy.

O’Malley is going to be the highest Fantasy cap hit on this card at $9,200. His significant strikes should be high, as he averages nearly seven significant strikes landed per minute. But proceed with caution, I don’t see him getting the finish. Marlon is just too tough, and he’ll be there until the end.

You can get Marlon Vera at the disrespectful price of $7,000, the equivalent of a half-sandwich lunch special at your local Patty’s and Selma’s diner. I think he’ll have his moments and land some significant shots and possibly end up in the top position at times. He’s got to be a better option than some of these guys with no profile picture next to their names. Okay, I’m putting it on wax, Sean O’Malley wins via unanimous decision.

Winner: Sean O'Malley | Method: Decision

Junior Dos Santos (+115) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-135)

Dos Santos: DK: $7.8k, FD: $15 | Rozenstruik: DK: $8.4k, FD: $17

Another sleeper, Tempur-Pedic. Unless Dos Santos plays it smart and puts Rozenstruik on the mat where he’s an infant on his back. Rozenstruik has the guard game of a San Diego Chargers Elite Security guard (google it). If you want to beat Jairzinho, take him down, and he’ll do little to get back up. The problem with that game plan for Dos Santos is that he hasn’t recorded at takedown since 2014. Saturday, August 15, 2020, would be a great time to break that streak.

Rozenstruik has eleven professional bouts, and only three of them have gone past the first five minutes. In two of those fights, his UFC debut against Junior Albini, and his most recent victory against Alistair Overeem, Rozenstruik was taken down multiple times and controlled relatively easily. Both Overeem and Albini went on to get KO’d, but the point is that there is a blueprint if you want to survive an encounter with Rozenstruik. Eight of Rozenstruik’s ten professional victories have come in the first round, four of those eight were inside of thirty seconds, and two of those four were inside of ten seconds. In his lone professional MMA loss, Rozenstruik was KO’d by Francis Ngannou in twenty seconds. Rozenstruik is a kickboxer with a Pro record of 76-8 with sixty-four KO’s. People tend to get narcoleptic whenever Rozenstruik's around.

In his fight against Rozenstruik, Overeem began high-stepping prematurely and spiked the ball at the one-yard line. He got KO’d literally at the buzzer, and his upper lip was sent six rows deep into the crowd. But up until the last five seconds of that fight, the threat of the takedown lulled Rozenstruik into relative inactivity. When Rozenstruik decides to go forward and throw kicks behind his punch combinations, it’s a wrap. Wrap-It-Up-B.

I know it’s a stereotype, but all Brazilians know Jiu-Jitsu, and if Dos Santos wants to survive, he needs to use his. He has to stay in the center of the Octagon to avoid getting trapped along the fence and refrain from throwing the naked power uppercut. It’s a punch Dos Santos likes to throw, but it’s a risky strike at any level of competition.

Dos Santos is coming off of two consecutive TKO losses with the most recent coming to Curtis Blaydes. Blaydes is a wrestler with weak standup, and hands that couldn't handle a doorknob. It’s not a good look for Dos Santos going into this fight, so I’m taking Rozenstruik via KO in round two.

At a cap hit of $8,400, Rozenstuik is a solid pickup. He won’t stuff the stat sheet, but that’s because his fights are over quicker than your Pop-Tart will burn in the toaster. Dos Santos’s cap price of $7,800 works out to be about $1,950 per Fantasy point that he is likely to tally in this fight.

Winner: Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Method: KO Rd.2

John Dodson (+190) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (-240)

Dodson: DK: $7.5k, FD: $14 | Dvalishvili: DK: $8.7k, FD: $18

If you’ve never seen Merab fight, you should stop right now and google his fight against Ricky Simon. He technically lost that fight, but fought off a guillotine choke until the buzzer for what seemed like the entire round. Dvalishvili questionably lost his first two UFC fights and has since strung together four straight wins.

In his fight against Casey Kenney, Merab set the Bantamweight record with twelve takedowns in a fight. Breaking his own record in his next and most recent fight against Gustavo Lopez, he landed thirteen takedowns. Relentless, perpetual, kinetic, that’s Merab’s style. From bell to bell, Merab is attacking, shooting double and single legs, initiating constant scrambles, delivering heavy ground and pound, and throwing power punches in bunches on the feet.

The constant threat of takedowns lends to the effectiveness of his standup game. He’s not the most technical striker, but he commits to his strikes and strings them together with good hand speed. This is a great opportunity for Merab to get a big name on his resume under the win column and become a sleeper in the Bantamweight division.

John Dodson at one time, KO’d T.J. Dillashaw, gave Demetrious Johnson all he could handle in a title fight back in 2015, and dropped the new Champ Petr Yan in a fight last year. The first two fights were Dodson at his peak, reaching his full potential. Since then, his record has been marred with unexplainable losses that he should've won had he just engaged more.

Dodson is quick, explosive, athletic, and can beat anybody in the division. It just seems like sometimes he doesn’t want to. He has long stretches of inactivity and just bounces around the cage feinting himself into stagnancy. Even though he’s coming off a TKO victory in February, I don’t like this fight for Dodson. I don’t see him being able to stay on his feet for long stretches against Dvalishvili, even if he does bring an aggressive mindset into the cage. This fight will look like his fights against D.J., in which Dodson was taken down several times and outwrestled.

Dvalishvili will be an $8,700 hit against your Fantasy cap and is worth every penny. He throws hands from any position and never stops. He’s going to be in the neighborhood of five takedowns and is constantly advancing his position. He particularly likes to ground and pound from the half guard to open up passing opportunities.

Dodson is sitting at $7,500 due to the likeliness of him having to fight off his back for long stretches. He might be a solid pick if you’re in a bind, he could absolutely catch Merab, and when he has someone hurt, Dodson is a good finisher. Alright, put it on wax, Merab Dvalishvili wins via decision.

Winner: Dvalishvili | Method: Decision

Prelims

Jim Miller (-105) vs. Vinc Pichel (-125)

Miller: DK: $8.3k, FD: $16 | Pichel: DK: $7.9k, FD: $15

Our first toss-up. Flip a coin, count rose petals, do whatever it is you do when trying to make a fifty-fifty decision. Jim Miller is the O’est G of all the OG’s in the UFC, and with this fight, he'll have a record thirty-six UFC fights. Miller has eighteen submission wins, including his last win in June against the tough, young Roosevelt Roberts. Now mounted on his wall, Miller snatched Robert’s arm early in the first round and tapped him.

Always an outstanding grappler and active submission seeker, Miller’s standup has declined over the years. His hand speed and reactions have slowed and he no longer thrives in a firefight.

Vic Pichel is nothing flashy; he doesn’t do anything at a particularly high level. He would be considered a grappler before he would be considered a striker. Pichel’s takedowns usually require the use of the cage and isn’t particularly active from the top position. He ground out the previously undefeated Roosevelt Roberts in his last fight over a year ago.

A one-punch striker, Pichel uses kicks well but doesn’t use them in combination with his hands. Early odds have Miller at (+100) and Pichel at (-120), and I’m going with the slight dog in this one. Put it on wax, Jim Miller decision.

Neither fighter is going to light up the Fantasy scoreboard, and it's all but assured to be a slow, grinding fight. If forced to pick one of the two, I like Miller at $8,300 and I don’t see much value in Pichel at $7,900.

Winner: Photo Finish... Miller | Method: Decision

Ashley Yoder (+135) vs. Livinha Souza (-165)

Yoder: DK: $7.6k, FD: $11 | Souza: DK: $8.6k, FD: $15

Ashley Yoder has the best tan in MMA and might be eyeing Tan Mom’s world title in the near future. Yoder’s a striker with decent grappling, but in the majority of her losses, she has been held down and out-grappled/wrestled. When she does get a takedown, she is very active from the top and stays fairly active on her feet.

Yoder lost a very close fight to Mckenzie Dern, a fight that was decided by a last-minute Dern takedown. Dern had trouble getting Yoder to the ground but out-struck Yoder for most of the standup exchanges; at least Dern was the more active striker. I see this fight being similar to the Dern fight; a subpar striker, who uses power punches to move forward and secure takedowns and maintain top position.

Like me, Souza is a Rapper, and I’m currently working on a diss track to test her bars. Souza is a grappler with eight of her thirteen wins coming via submission. She hasn’t fought in over a year, losing last July to the very tough wrestler Brianna Van Buren. If this fight goes the distance, Souza won’t be worth her $8,600 Fantasy salary. Souza’s standup is all power punches with no setup, and she can be bullied by forward pressure like she was in the Van Buren fight.

At $7,600, Yoder has more potential for Fantasy points if she can stay on her feet. I don’t believe she will, though. I don’t think Souza gets the finish here either; Yoder is too scrappy and has a lot of heart. Souza will get enough takedowns and maintain top control and wins a close decision.

Winner: Souza | Method: Decision

Chris Daukaus (-105) vs. Parker Porter (-125)

Daukaus: DK: $7.7k, FD: $14 | Porter: DK: $8.5k, FD: $17

Stay away from this fight. I’m taking Parker Porter via decision. Porter has fought as low as Welterweight in his career and now steps into the Octagon at two hundred sixty lbs. He has losses to Jon Jones, in 2008, and Gabriel Gonzaga, in 2011. He lost to Bones in thirty-seconds, but Porter has been around the block.

It’s easier to list everything Porter and Daukus aren’t than what they are: athletic, fast, explosive, agile, elusive, powerful, crafty, creative, ripped, and I’ll stop there. Porter is the better defensive striker and uses leg kicks to set up his overhand right. Daukus has seven KO’s with eight professional victories, and his parents call him Champ.

Once again, strength of schedule comes into play here, and Daukaus’s competition is not impressive at all. At least Porter has shared the cage with a couple of top tier fighters. At an $8,500 Fantasy salary, I think Porter is a stretch. He could get a third round TKO, but I think Daukus can go the distance. Daukus is a $7,700 Fantasy cap hit, and you might as well wipe your Fantasy ass with that $7,700.

Winner: Porter | Method: Decision

Felice Herrig (+250) vs. Virna Jandiroba (-310)

Herrig: DK: $7.2k, FD: $10 | Jandiroba: DK: $9k, FD: $17

Another tough fight to call. Early odds have Jandiroba at (-310) and Herrig at (+250). Herrig is a huge underdog and likely because everything Herrig is good at plays into Virna’s strengths. Virna’s only loss is to Carla Esparza, and I thought Virna won that fight two rounds to one. Virna was able to take down the wrestler Esparza three times and maintain top control, recording five advances while in top position.

This will be a grappling match unless neither fighter can secure takedowns. If this fight stays standing for long periods, it will be an amateur kickboxing match. Jandiroba doesn’t strike well from anywhere. When maintaining top position, Jandiroba only uses peppering strikes to set up passes and submissions. She doesn’t use her ground striking to end the fight.

On the feet, Virna can’t withstand heavy forward pressure and doesn’t defend takedowns with much fervor. But why waste energy defending takedowns when you want the fight on the ground anyway?

Herrig is coming off of two straight losses to two top contenders, Michelle Waterson and Karolina Kowalkiewicz, and hasn’t fought since 2018. This is a bad matchup for a comeback fight. Herrig has rudimentary standup and is mostly known for her wrestling. When Herrig gets into trouble is when she gets away from her wrestling and relents to a standup contest.

Finishes aren’t in Herrig’s vocabulary; she doesn’t end fights, and she has never been finished in her twenty-two fight career. Virna has twelve submissions with fifteen Pro victories. Alright, let’s put it on wax, Jandiroba wins via third-round rear-naked choke. Virna is a big favorite at (-310) and is a big Fantasy cap hit at $9,000. If I'm wrong and Jandiroba doesn't get the finish, there isn't much value with her on your roster. You could likely find less risk somewhere else. Proceed with caution.

Winner: Jandiroba | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Herbert Burns (-300) vs. Daniel Pineda (+220)

Burns: DK: $8.9k, FD: $19 | Pineda: DK: $7.3k, FD: $12

If Herbert Burns gets the back mount, it’s a done deal. It’s Jiu-Jitsu or bust for Burns, and he has eight subs with eleven wins, including two finishes in the UFC and one submission on the Contender Series. He’s currently on a five-fight finishing streak and is a Master of the rear-naked choke and arm triangle.

Burns’ standup is basic, vanilla with no toppings, flatfooted with single strikes. I liken Burns’ game to Demian Maia, up Crap Creek without any floaties on if he can’t take the fight to the ground.

This will be Daniel Pineda's second stint in the UFC and went 3-4 in his first run. He's fought top competition and is a wild, unpredictable striker who uses aggression to enhance his attacks. He has submissions from the top and scrambles from the bottom but will be outclassed in the Jiu-Jitsu department in this fight.

Burns will be $8,900, and I’d take him over Jandiroba if you’re looking for a finish. Pineda doesn’t have good takedown defense, and I expect Burns to get his back at some point(s). Pineda will be $7,300, but I’d take Vera if I’m looking in that price range.

Winner: Burns | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

T.J. Brown (-150) vs. Danny Chavez (+120)

Brown: DK: $8.8K, FD: $17 | Chavez: DK: $7.4k, FD: $13

I’ve known three Danny Chavez’s in my life, but I don’t know much about this one. He’s 10-3 with a lot of decision wins. T.J. Brown is a wrestler who is active on top and looks to advance position. He doesn’t look to end fights with his ground and pound, but he has nine submission finishes with eight Pro wins.

After appearing on the Contender Series, Brown made his UFC debut against Ezekiel Elliot and lost by submission to a rare guillotine choke while in side control. Before that, Brown dominated Zeke with seven takedowns.

Early odds have Brown at a (-170) favorite and Chavez at (+140). I like Brown to get a win here with constant takedowns and top control. Without knowing much about Chavez, I’ll take Brown by decision. Brown will have a solid Fantasy night at an $8,800 salary cap hit.

Winner: Brown | Method: Decision

Kai Kamaka III vs. Tony Kelley

Kamaka III: DK: TBD, FD: TBD | Kelley: DK: TBD, FD: TBD

This fight literally popped up as I was finishing this. Both are making their UFC debut, and the odds are not set. Looking at their records, neither finishes fights. Kamaka has won five straight by decision, and just for poops and giggles, I'll take him to win via decision.

Winner: Kamaka III| Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

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