We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

It was one of those moments in life. One of those moments that everyone alive will remember where they were when Greg The Leg Zuerlein stepped up to that prone football and kicked it like an uncoordinated child throwing a tantrum. They will remember every expletive they cursed at half the Falcons team, as they watched the ball roll right past them into the waiting arms of the Dallas Cowboys. The rest is history. And history will be made this Saturday night when the most anticipated fight in UFC middleweight history goes down between Israel "The Last Stylebender" Adesanya and Paulo Costa.

Main Card

Israel Adesanya (-185) vs. Paulo Costa (+150)

Stylebender: DK: $8.5k, FD: $21 | Costa: DK: $7.7k, FD: $19

I’ve been watching MMA since connecting to the Internet required you to sit on the kitchen floor with your computer plugged into a phone jack. During that same time, there used to be stores called Blockbuster, and all they sold were movies on videocassettes. Except, they didn’t really sell them; you rented them like checking out a library book, and you got charged extra if you didn’t rewind them when you were done.

My friend Kevin and I would rent UFC and Pride videos, and then spend the day rolling around in vacant dirt lots practicing triangle chokes and arm bars. Our friends just thought we were progressive and really liked each other.

My life changed the day I discovered a file-sharing site called Limewire. I downloaded every fight that ever was and would watch all the Pay Per Views the day after—I’m hoping I’m well outside of the statute of limitations. Since UFC 30, Tito Ortiz vs. Evan Tanner, I haven’t missed a single UFC event.

Even after suffering the spice agony, administered by the Bene Gesserit Reverend Mother, and gaining access to every memory stored within my Mentat mind, I can’t recall a bigger Middleweight title fight than this Saturday’s.

The UFC Middleweight division doesn’t have the rich history that all the other weight classes have. It’s consistently been the shallowest division over the years, ruled by an unchallenged champion who cleaned out the division. If Anderson Silva didn’t act like a fool, Chris Weidman would have never been a champ, and Silva would have gone unchallenged for another couple of years.

Today, the division is deeper than it’s ever been, and Adesanya vs. Costa will be everything that Adesanya vs. Romero should have been. Both fighters are undefeated, although Yoel Romero should have gotten the decision against Costa when they fought, and both are world-class strikers.

I’ll get the formalities out of the way first: Adesanya averages four significant strikes landed per minute while Costa averages almost eight and a half. Adesanya is the far more defensive fighter, absorbing less than two and a half strikes per minute, while Costa absorbs close to seven. Both fighters average exactly Zero Point Zero takedowns, and both are coming off of wins against Yoel Romero.

The numbers tell you everything you need to know about each fighter. Costa is the aggressive stand-in-the-pocket and trade type of fighter, and Adesanya is the more technical, calculating, distance-managing striker. Costa wants a brawl, and Adesanya wants a kickboxing match. Stylebender has fourteen KO’s in eighteen fights, and Costa has eleven KO’s in thirteen fights. Chances are, someone is going to get finished in this one.

Adesanya has the experience of fighting for a full five rounds three times in his career. Costa has never fought in a five-round fight and only went to a third-round once. Adesanya will look to stay on the outside and pick his shots. He’s a one and one-two type of striker with a wide variety of kicks and tends to thrive in a controlled technical bout. Costa wants chaos and will look to pressure Adesanya from the jump, using big hooks and heavy round kicks to cut off the ring and trap Stylebender against the cage.

Against Yoel Romero, Costa came out guns blazing in the first round, but his output noticeably waned in the second and third. He’ll have to pace himself in this one and fight in long spurts with bursts of flurries throughout. Adesanya may want to slow play this one and drag Costa into the Olympic sixteen-foot deep end. Rounds four and five should be all Adesanya. If he finishes this fight, I think it will be late. The opposite will be true for Costa; if he finishes it, it will be early.

Both fighters are KO Bob Ross’s, so you can’t go wrong with either on your roster, but Costa will give you higher strike totals if it goes the distance. I’ve gone back and forth on this fight for a couple of months now, and I think Kelvin Gastelum exposed some holes in Stylebender’s game. He came out of that fight looking Like Martin Lawrence after he was lumped up by the hitman, or like he had a shellfish allergy. Gastelum was able to get inside with quick hands and landed heavy shots, hurting Adesanya multiple times. Costa can do the same thing but isn’t an undersized middleweight. On wax, Paulo Costa via TKO, round two.

Winner: Paulo Costa | Method: TKO Rd.2

Dominick Reyes (-300) vs. Jan Blachowicz (+230)

Reyes: DK: $9k, FD: $22 | Blachowicz: DK: $7.2k, FD: $17

Two weeks ago, I prematurely crowned Dominick Reyes, the new light heavyweight champion, and now… I’m sticking with it! Reyes should be defending his title in a rematch against Bones Jones. But if we’re being honest, Thiago Santos should be defending his belt in a rematch against Bones Jones instead of fighting a scheduled bout against Glover Teixeira. Both fighters were locked in the same Valero bathroom with Angela Hill and Ryan Lochte and robbed at gunpoint. So was Alexander Gustafsson years ago, but I digress.

Jan Blachowicz can win this fight; I’m not saying he doesn’t have a legit shot. Corey Anderson, Jacare, Luke Rockhold, Nikita Krylov, Jimi Manuwa, Jared Cannonier, Illir Latifi; are all fighters in Blachowicz’s win column. His lone loss in the last four years was to Thiago Santos. He’s big for the division, long, durable, and crafty enough to make up for disadvantages in speed and athleticism. Blachowicz has finished sixteen of his twenty-six wins, with seven KO’s and nine submissions.

Jan has to be aggressive with constant forward pressure without walking into Reyes' counters. He has to initiate grappling exchanges and try to grind Reyes against the fence. Reyes won the first three rounds against Jon Jones, but faded in the championship rounds, allowing Bones to steal the fight. Much like Adesanya, Blachowicz needs to win rounds four and five. The Jacare fight was the only time Jan fought five rounds, and I'm assuming he doesn't fade himself.

Reyes needs to look for an early finish, rounds one and two, but be careful not to gas himself out. He can do this by focusing on speed instead of power in the opening round; try to initiate a fight-ending sequence with a series of quick combinations rather than with big power punches. Reyes is an excellent counter striker. He throws power shots while moving backward and moves laterally instead of in straight lines. He’s, by far, the more dynamic striker, but Blachowicz wears people down. He does this with straight power punches and with his ability to take another fighter’s best shot.

Reyes is the better Fantasy fighter, averaging ninety fantasy points, while Jan averages almost seventy. Each fighter is capable of a finish, and at (+210), Jan is a good underdog bet. His Fantasy cap will be $7,200, and he has the best chance of a finish among all the cellar-dwelling fighters in his price range. But I’m going with Reyes. I think his aggression and combination striking could overwhelm Blachowicz early in the fight. I think Jan will survive for a couple of rounds before being finished in the third. There you have it, Dominick Reyes, via TKO, round three.

Winner: Reyes| Method: TKO Rd.3

Kai Kara France (-240 ) vs. Brandon Royval (+190 )

Kara France: DK: $8.9k, FD: $18 | Royval: DK: $7.3k, FD: $12

Now we get into the little known fighters who have been stealing the show with big upset victories on every card. The majority of this card is comprised of such fighters. Kara France is a fighter out of the City Kickboxing camp, which is home to two champions, Alexander Volkanovski and Israel Adesanya. He looks like a mini Volkanovski with technical, traditional kickboxing. Lead leg attacks are his bread and butter, and he uses them to set up his fight-changing right hand.

France tends to rely on his right hand too much and often telegraphs it with no setup. He’s not a good counter striker when moving backward and can be bullied with forward pressure. Like his teammate Stylebender, he wants a traditional kickboxing match and wants to avoid a firefight in the pocket.

Brandon Royval is coming off of a submission victory against the super tough Tim Elliot in his UFC debut last May. That fight is the only video we have on Royval, and his grappling was on full display. He scrambles well and is tough to take down and hold on the mat. He didn’t spend much time on the feet, but from what I saw, he’s a southpaw and a long striker that tends to over pursue and reach with his power hand.

I’m guessing, but I think Royval will want to initiate grappling exchanges and try to avoid long exchanges on the feet. He has seven submission victories and three Ko/TKO’s in fifteen professional fights. Kara France will cost you $8,900, but in five UFC bouts has not produced a finish. Royval is $7,300 and has a good shot at a submission victory. He also has the better nickname, Raw Dawg. I’m going to play it safe and take Kai Kara France via decision, though.

Winner: Kai Kara France | Method: Decision

Ketlen Vieira (-130) vs. Sigara Eubanks (+100)

Vieira: DK: $8.8k, FD: $15 | Eubanks: DK: $7.4k, FD: $13

Originally scheduled to fight the forty-three-year-old Marion Reneau, Vieira now has a tougher task in Eubanks. I’ve doubted Eubanks in her last two fights, and she burned me with two big upset victories. Her last fight was just two weeks ago against the power striker Julia Avila. Eubanks won that fight with takedowns and top control.

I don’t know how Eubanks will fare with that strategy against the huge, grappling centric Vieira. Vieira has big holes in her striking, but so does Eubanks. This fight could end up as a grappling stalemate and be determined on the feet. When she strikes, Ketlen stands very tall with her head held high in the air, with very little movement. She pushes her punches, she’s stiff and isn’t a natural striker.

Eubanks has traditional boxing standup, and at four strikes per minute, averages twice the significant strikes landed than Vieira does. Neither are big finishers, and Eubanks hasn’t finished a fight in years. It’ll be tough going in the Fantasy points department with both of these fighters. I’m a glutton for punishment and hate learning from my mistakes; I’m taking Vieira in this one. I think her size will be too much for Sijara, and Vieira will be the one in the top position more often. Vieira, via decision, on wax.

Winner: Ketlen Vieira | Method: Decision

Hakeem Dawodu (-105 ) vs. Zubaira Tukhugov (-125)

Dawodu: DK: $8k, FD: $16 | Tukhugo: DK: $8.2k, FD: $17

Banger alert. If it weren’t for the main event, this could be the fight of the night. A pick ‘em fight, these two are evenly matched in different ways. Dawodu is the pure striker with excellent cardio, who gets stronger as the fight goes on. He averages over five significant strikes per minute, while Tukhugov averages two and a half.

Dawodu is a slow starter, and Tukhugov is a frontrunner. Hakeem has a difficult time defending hooks over his lead shoulder, and Tukhugov has a fight-changing lead hook. Tukhugov is an excellent grappler who uses the cage to secure takedowns, and Dawodu is an excellent attacker in the clinch.

Tukhugov has KO power early in fights, whether with his left hook or overhand Khabib-like right hand. He has a low output, but when he does throw, he commits and throws with intentions to end the fight. Tukhugov’s major malfunction; he has the gas tank of a moped. After the first round, when he secures takedowns, he just lies on top with little advancement or ground and pound.

Dawodu has to pressure Tukhugov early and defend his lead hand. He’ll need to scramble to his feet often in this fight, but he’s a good late-round finisher. Tukhugov has to land something heavy early and grind out Dawodu from the top position. Both fighters are middle-tier Fantasy cap hits, Tukhugov at $8,200, and Dawodu at $8,000. Dawodu will give you more bang for your buck if he’s able to get back to his feet consistently or avoid the ground altogether. I think Dawodu survives, and Tukhugov will fade late. Give me Dawodu via TKO, round three.

Winner: Dawodu | Method: TKO Rd.3

Brad Riddell (-335 ) vs. Alex da Silva (+255 )

Ridell: DK: $9.2k, FD: $19 | Silva: DK: $7k, FD: $10

The New Zealand fighters and Stylebender stablemates are out in full force on this card, and here’s another who reminds me of Volkanovski, Brad Riddell. He’s a bigger Volkanovski with power in both hands and a pressure fighter with high volume. His standup is made better by the fact that he has good takedown defense, and when he is taken down, he manages to scramble back to his feet.

It’s been a few weeks since I’ve said it, but here it is; you have to have an answer for leg kicks. You either have to defend them, get takedowns off them, or attack and make them pay for throwing them. Riddell has good leg kicks and mixes his hand combinations to the body.

Alex da Silva is in trouble if he can’t get this fight to the ground and maintain the top position. His striking is stiff and just not very good. Da Silva has decent takedowns and uses a submission top game rather than a striking top game. He looks to advance past his opponent’s guard and capitalize on mistakes and find submissions. On his feet, he has heavy kicks but throws them naked with no setup. Da Silva averages one significant strike landed per minute… I’ll just leave that chilling right there.

I’ll talk about Juan Espino shortly, but Riddell is just above him with a DK salary of $9,200. I think Espino has a better shot at a finish. Riddell will get a win and will tally a moderate sixty to seventy significant strikes landed. If da Silva can’t get a sub, he’s worthless; his value is strictly sentimental. I’ll take Brad Riddell via decision.

Winner: Brad Riddell | Method: Decision

Prelims

Diego Sanchez (+475 ) vs. Jake Matthews (-750)

Sanchez: DK: $6.8k, FD: $8 | Matthews: DK: $9.4k, FD: $20

Weird, boring fight alert. Only because everything Diego Sanchez does is weird. Diego is as O an OG as a fighter can get. He’s the original Ultimate Fighter champion and won the title at middleweight. He’s won three of his last four fights, but he won his last fight against the wild Michel Pereira via Ed Herman okie doke, hoodwink, bamboozle, run amok, flimflam, hornswoggle, or whatever you refer to as general skulduggery.

Sanchez howls at the moon and is definitely the pack leader of fighting weirdoes. Striking has never been a strength for Diego; he’s gotten by with sheer aggression and pushing a relentless pace. He wants to get this fight to the ground and grind out Matthews, who wants to do the same thing.

If there’s an exciting Jake Matthews fight out there, I couldn’t find it. I watch a lot of fights while running on the treadmill, and it became a dangerous activity to perform while watching his fights. At any moment, I could have fallen asleep mid-stride and ended up with a broken neck and wheelchair racing with Eric the Actor.

Matthews is a pedestrian, one-punch striker with a low output. He hunts with his right hand with no setup and doesn’t have dynamic takedowns for a fighter who wants the fight to go to the ground. I have no idea why Matthews has the highest Fantasy salary, but I wouldn’t take him if I were playing with your money. With good reason, the crab people have set Sanchez’s salary as the lowest, at $6,800. They have me at $6,700, so that’s telling you something.

As a (+500) dog, give me Diego Sanchez all damn day. I’ll definitely drop a twenty-twen-twen on my man from the Breaking Bad State, New Mexico. Red chile or bust. Diego Sanchez, via decision. It’s like this and like Dak!

Winner: Diego Sanchez | Method: Decision

Shane Young (-115 ) vs. Ludovit Klein (-115 )

Young: DK: $7.9k, FD: $17 | Klein: $8.3k, FD: $16

Shane Young was the favorite heading into the fight with his original opponent, Nate Landwehr, and I thought he was going to lose that fight. Ludovit Klein is going to win this fight. My man Ludo is 16-2 with fifteen finishes. He’s making his UFC debut on short notice, and I would assume he has to be the underdog. Ludo is a very polished kickboxer with a large arsenal of kicks, up the middle and round. A true southpaw, he manages distance well and stays busy with combination striking. He has a striking top game and doesn’t look for submissions; he wants to finish with strikes.

Shane Young is another fighter from the famed City Kickboxing Gym in New Zealand and has a similar style to Kara France. His striking isn’t very creative, and he tends to stand tall when he strings together combinations. He stays very active with very little dead air between exchanges. He’s just too vanilla for me and lacks power.

I would take a chance on Klein to get a finish in this one, late. That’s what he does; he finishes fights. Give me Ludovit Klein, via TKO, round three.

Winner: Ludovit Klein | Method: TKO Rd.3

William Knight (+155 ) vs. Aleksa Camur (-175 )

Knight: $7.6k, FD: $16 | Camur: DK: $8.6k, FD: $17

These dudes are going to throw down. Aleksa Camur trains with the heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic and is a very young, raw prospect. William Knight is F’ing huge. Like homie could win the Mr. Olympia title kind of huge. Camur is fighting for the second time in the UFC after winning his debut and coming off the Contender Series. Knight will be making his debut after recording two TKO victories on the Contender Series.

Knight is 8-1 with eight KO’s, and the bigger threat to end the fight before the final bell. Camur is the far more technical, traditional standup fighter. This fight is basically like when you decide you're the man of the house and decide to have it out with your ol' man in the driveway. This is a grown-ass man versus a young whippersnapper. Camur is undersized for the light heavyweight division, and he’s going to have to stay on the outside and away from Knight’s power. He’s the better, more fundamental fighter, but Knight’s power leaves little room for error.

When the odds come out, I expect Camur to be a slight favorite due to his training camp affiliation, and I’ll take my chances on a Knight TKO. It may look ugly for Knight early, but I think he can land something fight-changing. At $7,600, I’ll gamble on his ability to finish a fight, even one that he’s losing. I would look at Camur at $8,600 over Vieira and Ibragimov in that price tier. William Knight, via TKO, round two.

 Winner: William Knight | Method: TKO Rd.2

Jeff Hughes (+230) vs. Juan Francisco Espino Dieppa (-300)

Hughes: DK: $7.1k, FD: $9 | Espino: DK: $9.1k, FD: $19

The first two fights on this card are not indicative of how good the rest of the card is. No, Jeff Hughes is not related to the great Matt Hughes and is 0-2-1 in the UFC. Hughes looks like a repo tow truck driver and is a distant Peter-in-law to Dog the Bounty Hunter.

Juan Francisco Espino Dieppa’s name is longer than this fight will last. The only fight I could find was his UFC debut almost two years ago. I have no idea what he’s been up to during his hiatus, but he’s 9-1 with six submission victories, and that’s good enough for me. His DK salary is $9,100, just above Dominick Reyes, and could be a good alternative to separate your roster from the many that will include Reyes. I’m going with the name I copied and pasted three times, Juan Francisco Espino Dieppa, via first-round Kimura.

Winner: Juan Espino | Method: Kimura Rd.1

Khadis Ibragimov (-155 ) vs. Danilo Marques (+125)

Ibragimov: DK: $8.7k, FD: $17 | Marques: DK: $7.5k, FD: $14

Last week I picked Tyson Nam to lose to a guy who I had never seen engage in fisticuffs. It was disrespectful, and Tyson Nam KO’d his nameless opponent with the quickness just to spite me. I kind of thought Nam was being catfished, and no one would actually show up at weigh-ins. I vowed to never make another blind pick again, but then I watched Khadis Ibragimov fight. I promptly broke my vow within fifteen minutes of making it.

Ibragimov is 8-3, with all his losses coming in the UFC. He’s an oafish galoot with a lawnmower’s gas tank. It’s not often, but when he does throw strikes, he throws big looping shots. He got his whole entire ass kicked by Ed Herman two fights ago and was KO’d in his most recent fight in July.

Danilo Marques could be masquerading as Manti Te’o’s new girlfriend for all I know. I couldn’t find any fight videos for him, and he’ll be making his UFC debut. What I do know is he’s 9-2 with eight finishes, four submissions, and four KO/TKO’s; that’s symmetry.

Ibragimov comes with a DK salary of $8,700 and averages thirty fantasy points a fight. I laughed at that ish too. Stay away from him. Marques is $7,400, and your guess is as good as mine as to what comes with your purchase. I’m going Stevie again on this one; give me Danilo Marques, via decision.

Winner: Danilo Marques | Method: Decision 

P.S. Put it on wax, DBoys 37 Seahawks 23. Catch ya’ll next week.

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

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