We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

It's obvious Brian Ortega subscribes to the Weekly Knockout. He ditched the Philly Shell for a more traditional defense, creating a different hand position and more effective jab. Subsequently, he put on a master class of managing distance and disguising power shots. The Weekly Knockout made Brian Ortega the number one contender; what can it do for you? Read it, and find out.

Main Card

Khabib Nurmagomedov (-335) vs. Justin Gaethje (+255)

Khabib: $9.2k, FD: $24 | Gaethje: DK: $7k, FD: $18

My fandom is as follows: the Dallas Cowboys, Anaheim Angels, Anaheim Ducks, and the New Orleans Pelicans.  Their commonality, they’re all terrible teams and may never contend for their respective championships in my remaining lifetime.  I’m not asking for your pity; don’t feel sorry for me.  Just remember, whatever you’re going through, it could be worse.  UFC 254 will be my proverbial Super Bowl, World Series, Stanley Cup Finals, and NBA Finals all wrapped up in a tight lil’ man bun.  I live vicariously through witnessing the best fights I can imagine and celebrating them as if one of my teams finally broke through and made it to the big one. 

Jon Jones, GSP, Anderson Silva, and Jose Aldo are all in the discussion for the most dominant UFC champ of all time.  My criteria doesn’t weigh heavily on the duration of the title reign.  Rather, I judge based on the division they fought in and how opposing fighters approached and fought each respective champion.  Anderson Silva dominated his division at a time when the historically wackest division in the promotion was at its wackest.  Jose Aldo reigned supreme over the featherweight division for ten years but limped to the finish line on several occasions; check out the Mark Hominick, Ricardo Lamas, and the second Chad Mendes fights. Oh, and there was that thirteen second Conor McGregor fight.  

At his height, Bones Jones looked the most unbeatable, but that height was brief, and he should legitimately have three L’s on his record.  He also failed two drug tests and hid underneath a boxing ring in his gym to avoid failing another.

That leaves GSP; the welterweight division and the lightweight division have consistently been the most competitive divisions in the sport, and GSP dominated fight after fight.  But GSP didn’t strike fear in his opponents.  They came after him with no hesitation and usually lost because of a large discrepancy in athletic ability.  That leaves Khabib Nurmagomedov.  

Khabib is that dude.  His opponents fight scared, and they all quote the previous victim in their post-fight press conferences.  “I didn’t fight my fight.”  “I fought too defensively.”  “I worried about the takedowns too much.”  And so on, and so on.  Time can be manipulated; defend your title once, maybe twice a year depending on injuries, and before you know it, you’ve been the champ for several years.  

For twelve straight UFC bouts, I’ve thought Khabib’s opponents were seated on a futon next to Satan playing Russian Roulette with an empty clip; they didn’t have a shot in Hell.  None.  And you could see it on their faces; they knew it.  They knew it at the weigh-ins. They knew it during media interviews.  They knew it when the ref was giving his final instructions in the center of the Octagon.  And they knew it as Khabib was holding a conversation with Dana White mid ass whoopin' about smashing his next opponent.

Wrestling is the single most important discipline in MMA.  Dictating where the fight takes place is the most valuable advantage a fighter can have.  When you mix relentless ground and pound with a suffocating top game, you slowly extinguish your opponent’s will.  Khabib has done that in every one of his fights.  He’s broken every opponent.  Maybe not Al Iaquinta, but Khabib carried him to the end of that fight as a token of his appreciation because Al took the fight on a day’s notice.

On Saturday, Khabib will have to have a plan for Gaethje’s leg kicks.  Most likely, he will look to catch them, counter with a right hand, and drive Gaethje to the mat.  Don’t sleep on Khabib’s striking; he trains at the American Kickboxing Academy, and his sparring partners are some of the best strikers in the sport.  He has deceptive hands, and what he lacks in technical ability, he makes up with aggression.  Khabib outstruck Conor Mcgregor and dropped him because McGregor didn’t respect his power.  Khabib’s striking accentuates his wrestling because it affords him the ability to take his time and look for openings rather than have to force takedowns.

Can Justin Gaethje win this fight?  Yes.  And he will.  Gaethje will mark the first opponent who won’t be beaten by Khabib before he steps into the Octagon.  Wrestling was Gaethje’s gateway into MMA, and he was an NCAA Division One All American.  Gaethje’s offense won’t be stifled by a hyper-focus on defending takedowns.  When his back ends up on the mat, and it will, he will have the ability to force scrambles and get back to his feet.  

When I watch Gaethje throw punches, I think if he had played baseball instead of fighting, he would have been the first ambidextrous pitcher, switching from the right side of the mound to left mid-at-bat.  He has a unique way of throwing his hooks and overhands like he’s throwing a baseball, and he has KO power in both.  He particularly likes to throw his lead hook after a right leg kick.  He ducks off to the side when he throws the low calf kick, and the motion naturally loads up the follow-up hook.  It’s his bread and butter.  On the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, Gaethje said it would only take him three to four leg kicks (specifically, calf kicks) to render Khabib’s leg useless.  After that, his takedowns won’t be a threat, and the fight will stay standing, where Gaethje has a clear advantage.

Gaethje has evolved in his last couple of fights, no longer just covering up in the pocket and engaging in firefights.  Against Tony Ferguson, he stayed on the outside, used excellent head movement, set up angles with his footwork, and countered Tony’s jab all night.  Translation: Gaethje 2.0.    

Ok, on wax, this is how it will go down.  Gaethje will defend takedowns and scramble to his feet often in the first two rounds, all the while damaging Khabib’s legs during the intermittent standup stretches.  Gaethje will take over midway through the third round and begin to land heavy punches, leading to a fifth-round TKO.  The world, shocked.  Me, through thick clouds of blunt smoke saying, “I told ya."

Winner: Justin Gaethje | Method: TKO Rd.5

Robert Whittaker (-105 ) vs. Jared Cannonier (-115)

Whittaker: DK: $8k, FD: $15 | Cannonier: DK: $8.2k, FD: $17

The former middleweight champion, Robert Whitaker’s only loss at middleweight, was to Israel Adesanya.  Yes, the guy I picked Paulo Costa to beat, doh! Before the Stylebender fight, Whittaker was on a nine-fight winning streak, and two of those wins were against Yoel F’ing Romero.

Bobby Knuckles’s standup is unorthodox; he throws punches and kicks from impossible angles.  He’s particularly good at throwing a right head kick almost simultaneously behind a lead right hand.  Same-side strikes, i.e., right-hand right-kick, are very difficult to throw; the balance requirement is just different.  Whitty will drop his head almost to the mat and throw looping overhands and come back with follow-up hooks.  His wrestling is top-notch; when Romero was able to get him down, it wasn’t for long.

Jared Cannonier started his career with the UFC in the heavyweight division.  He was undersized and went on the don’t-eat-so-much diet, dropping to light heavyweight not long after.  He beat Ion Cutelaba but lost to Glover Teixeira and Daniel Reyes.  It was back to the diet board, and he dropped to middleweight, where he’s won three in a row.

A reserved power puncher with clean, short combo’s, Cannonier can KO anyone in the division.  He won’t overextend himself and get caught out of place and doesn’t take many risks.  But he doesn’t need to.  He has three TKO victories in his last three fights but hasn’t tallied more than twenty-eight significant strikes landed in his previous five bouts.  

Both fighters are Fantasy heavyweights; Whittaker and his ability to finish fights and the likelihood of landing a high volume of significant strikes, and Cannonier’s KO power make them both good-looks for your roster.  Bobby Knuck’s has only been finished twice, by Wonderboy and Stylebender.  I see this going the distance, and I’m rolling with one of my favorite fighters, Robert Whittaker.  Bobby Whitaker via decision.

Winner: Robert Whittaker | Method: Decision

Alexander Volkov (-200 ) vs Walt Harris (+160 )

Volkov: DK: $8.6k, FD: $17 | Harris: DK: $7.6k, FD: $15

This one will be a tough fight to call.  Alexander is a long kickboxer who uses his reach well and has experience fighting big power punchers and neutralizing them.  He’s 5-2 in the UFC and was ten seconds away from being 6-1, but Derrick Lewis KO’d him when a Hail Mary connected in the waning seconds of the fight.  He’s coming off a loss to Curtis Blaydes in a boring contest that was nearly deemed NC-17 because of Blaydes’s incessant lovemaking from the top position.

The question in this fight is; will Harris use his wrestling to duplicate Blaydes’s “success” against Volkov?  Walt has one takedown in his last five fights and has largely relied on the mediocre striking that somehow led him to two KO victories in his previous three scraps.  Against Overeem, in his last fight, Harris was one or two follow-up punches away from a KO victory in the opening seconds. 

For Harris, it’s finish or be finished.  In his last seven bouts, none have gone the distance.  Opening as a (+145) underdog, Harris is a good look, but I think the oddsmakers favor Volkov’s more technical striking and ability to stay on the outside and out-point Harris.  In seven bouts, Volkov has reached over one hundred significant strikes three times and was close to a fourth.  Volkov’s the smart pick here.  Volkov via decision.

Winner: Alexander Volkov | Method: Decision

Jacob Malkoun (+200) vs. Phillip Hawes (-275)

Malkoun: DK: $7.1k, FD: $10 | Hawes: DK: $9.1k, FD: $19

This is a dope matchup.  Phil Hawes has traveled a Jeep commercial path to the UFC.  He was on the Ultimate Fighter in 2016 and was bounced from the show by the tough Andrew Sanchez.  He went on to fight for the World Series of Fighting, Bellator, and was on the Contender Series twice, most recently last month.

Hawes is a huge wrestler whose striking has improved dramatically since his stint on the Ultimate Fighter.  A wrestler-striker, Hawes has big power punches but has developed a solid jab, which he works off of more traditionally.  The power double-leg is his go-to takedown and is highly effective when he initiates it from the center of the cage.  His most impressive accolade is that he’s one of Jon Jones’s main training partners, and that experience isn’t quantifiable.

Jacob Malkoun will be making his UFC debut after only having four professional bouts.  His last fight was a year ago against a fit fat guy who looked like the type to take GNC supplements without actually working out.  Malkoun works well off his jab and rarely throws his right hand without an escort.  From what little I was able to see of Malkoun, I would compare him to Court Mcgee, and has an average all-around game.            

Malkoun is being thrown in the Olympic pool deep end in this one and is making a quantum leap up in competition.  Phil Hawes should win this fight and is riding a four-fight finishing streak.  His right hand is the lullaby before naptime, and I think his power and size will be too much for Malkoun.  Phil Hawes via second-round TKO.

Winner: Phillip Hawes | Method: TKO Rd.2

Liliya Shakirova (+200 ) vs Lauren Murphy (-240)

Shakirova: DK: $7.4k, FD: $11 | Murphy: DK: $8.8k, FD: $19

Lauren Murphy is a junkyard dog, and I mean that with the utmost respect.  She’s a UFC veteran-veteran.  Murphy made her debut in 2014 and went on to fight on the Ultimate Fighter in 2017.  She has experienced a resurgence as of late, winning four of her last five, and is currently on a three-fight winning streak.

Nothing Lauren Murphy does is pretty, and she often looks on the verge of losing every fight she’s in, but she’s tough with a cape on and never quits.  To me, she’s the female Chris Leben, with robotic striking that never slows and has a way of wearing down her opponent’s will.  She is a late fight finisher with two TKO wins with under a minute left in the fight.

Liliya Shakirova is a late replacement fighter with little file footage available to the general public.  Lauren Murphy is going to have her hands full. Shakirova has excellent wrestling and can cover a large distance with her explosive double-leg shots.  Her standup is serviceable and is mostly wrestler striking but uses it well to set up shots.  She is 8-1, but the judges robbed her in her lone loss.

This is a risky fight for Murphy, and her success will weigh heavily on her takedown defense and ability to scramble from the bottom.  The limb looks inviting for this one, and I’m going to climb out onto it and take Liliya Shakirova for the upset.  I think she’ll score takedowns and steal rounds with top control.  Liliya Shakirova via decision.

Winner: Liliya Shakirova | Method: Decision

Ion Cutelaba (+250 ) vs. Magomed Ankalaev (-325 )

Cutelaba: DK: $7.3k, FD: $9 | Ankalaev: DK: $8.9k, FD: $19

*I think this will be my fourth time posting about this fight.  This matchup is getting close to the Tony Ferguson vs. Khabib never-going-to-happen status.

I’ll cut to the chase, put it on wax, Magomed Ankalaev TKO round two.  It’ll be the second time he finished Cutelaba this year.  Cutelaba can take his ass to Seattle and do all the protesting he wants; he acted a fool before the fight back in February and was woozy just seconds into the fight.  The Ref waved Cutelaba off, yes, prematurely, and Cutelaba once again acted a fool.  

Magomed is the Light Heavyweight, standup version of Khamzat Chimaev, and as you are starting to see, anyone whose name ends in “aev” is a monster.  His only loss came with five seconds left in a fight he completely dominated but got caught in a Paul Craig triangle choke.  Craig will be telling stories at the family reunion for years to come about the time he beat this guy.

Ion Cutelaba drives a Toyota Frontrunner with the top down until the second round. Then he runs out of gas and has to hitchhike the rest of the way.  If you can withstand Cutelaba’s first-round storm, you can bully him with constant pressure until he breaks.  In his fight against Glover, he was dominating, before getting taken down and choked into submission in the second. 

Magomed can win this fight standing (again) or take less risk and take Cutelaba down and grind him out until he finds an opening for the finish.  Ion is very dangerous and has the power to ruin anyone’s day, so I expect Magomed to take the path of least resistance.  Magomed will test the standup only long enough to get Ion down to the mat.  Get that one-day Fantasy contract ironed out now; Magomed Ankalaev via TKO, round two.

Winner: Magomed Ankalaev | Method: TKO Rd.2

Prelims

Stefan Struve (-125) vs. Tai Tuivasa (-105)

Struve: DK: $8.3k, FD: $17 | Tuivasa: DK: $7.9k, FD: $15

The Skyscraper, Stefan Struve, is my MMA pet peeve.  When I used to teach Muay Thai, I used Struve as an example of how not to use a reach advantage.  He squares his shoulders, doesn’t use his jab nearly enough, and has no feel for the pocket.  Despite having a length, reach, and size advantage in almost every fight, Struve prefers to grapple and doesn’t mind fighting from his back.  He has eighteen submission victories and eight via TKO/KO in twenty-nine pro wins.  He’s a finisher.  He’s also a get finished’er, having been stopped nine times in twelve losses.  

Tai Tuivasa is riding a dubious three-fight losing streak after going 3-0 to start his UFC career.  He’s a power puncher with a kill-or-be-killed approach; he doesn’t waste much energy on defending strikes or defending much of anything, really.  A firefight, that’s what Tuivasa wants to engage in and is willing to play the odds that he’ll land the fight-ender first.

This will likely end one of two ways.  Struve will secure takedowns and find a submission, or Tuivasa will force a predominantly standup fight and land something fight ending.  Without finishes, these two won’t bring much value to your Fantasy roster.  The smart choice is Struve, with more tools on his belt, but I’m reluctantly going to take Tai Tuivasa via first-round TKO.  He’s never had a finish outside of the first round, fyi.

Winner: Tai Tuivasa | Method: TKO Rd.1

Alex Oliveira (-120 ) vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov (-110 )

Cowboy: DK: $8.5k, FD: $16 | Rakhmonov: $7.7k, FD: $14

Cowboy Oliveira is making his nineteenth UFC appearance since 2015 and has compiled a 12-6 record.  After going through a rough patch of three straight L’s, Oliveira is coming into this fight on a two-fight winning streak.  He’s a long, one-punch power striker with excellent wrestling/grappling and is a very tough out for anyone in the welterweight division.  Is Cowboy a gatekeeper?  Yeah, I guess he is, and to support that claim, he’s fighting an unknown fighter who's making his debut.  That's kind of the definition of a gatekeeper; a veteran who wins just a tad more than he loses but who is tough and can serve as a litmus test for promising prospects.

Shavkat Rakhmonov has entered the chat.  I found some dated footage on YouTube, and I couldn’t figure out how he is 12-0.  Level of competition? Maybe, but he did fight several times for M-1 Global, and many big-time fighters have come to the UFC by way of the promotion.  The back of my mind tingled when I watched him fight, and it took me a while to figure out why; he reminds me slightly of Rory McDonald.  He has an upright striking style and seems to have sneaky power.  He’s finished all of his fights, seven TKO/KO’s and five submissions.

I have the feeling that Dana White and matchmaker Sean Shelby knows something that we don’t about Rakhmonov.  Why else would they give Shavkat a savage like Cowboy Oliveira in his debut? I’m going to take the plunge.  Shavkat Rakhmonov via decision. Plus, with a name like that, my man has probably been getting into fights since day one.

Winner: Shavkat Rakhmonov | Method: Decision

Da-Un Jung (-350 ) vs. Smiling Sam Alvey (+260 )

Jung: $9.4k, FD: $22 | Alvey: DK: $6.8k, FD: $8

“Smiling” Sam Alvey will be making his twentieth appearance in the Octagon and has a record of 10-9.  Sam is an unassuming sleeper who rarely fails to be competitive.  Another favorite fighter of mine, Alvey, is riding a four-fight losing skid but almost pulled out a last minute TKO victory against the huge Ryan Spann earlier this year.

A southpaw, Sam Alvey has technical boxing with deceptive power and throws a check right hook counter almost every time his opponent moves forward.  He used it against Spann, landing it over and over until it finally landed just right and set up the near fight-ending finishing sequence.  He has power in his left hand and has a knack for just hanging around and making a fight out of a mismatch, not in his favor.

Da Un Jung is 2-0 in the UFC and coming off a one minute TKO victory of Muay Thai specialist Mike Rodriguez.  Jung lands at nearly seven significant strikes per minute, more than doubling Alvey’s output, and has power in his right hand that he hides behind his jab.  Irene Aldana should watch Jung’s fight against Khadis Ibragimov and take notes on how to cut off the cage.  Jung does it by switching stances and forcing his opponent back toward his power side. 

Toss-up.  Da Un Jung has ten KO’s and two submissions in thirteen pro wins.  He’s a finisher, but in forty-seven career fights, Alvey has only been finished four times.  Sorry, Sam, I’m taking Da Un Jung via decision, and he’ll make for a pretty solid pickup for your Fantasy roster.

Winner: Da-Un Jung | Method: Decision

*Sam Alvey can win this fight, he can hang around and pull off an Anthony Davis at the buzzer. At (+260), I'd spare a little ten spot on Alvey.

Nathaniel Wood (+145) vs. Casey "They Killed" Kenney (-175)

Wood: DK: $7.5k, FD: $13 | Kenney: DK: $8.7k, FD: $17

Fight of the night right here.  Casey Kenney is coming off a dominant performance just two weeks ago against a high-level opponent in Alateng Heili.  Kenney landed four thousand body kicks in the fight, and by the second round, Heili’s entire side looked like Hamburger Helper.  He’s an excellent striker with short, quick combinations with the wrestling/grappling to match.  Merab Dvalishvili is his only loss in his last nine fights, and 4-1 in the UFC after fighting twice on the Contender series in 2017.

Nathaniel Wood is another sound striker who uses a wide variety of kicks, the most effective being the up-the-middle snap kick that he hides behind punches.  The “dart” is a delayed power hand punch where the hips and shoulders rotate like a normal punch, but the hand doesn’t immediately follow; it shortens the strike and allows the fighter to sneak out the back door and avoid any counter strikes.  Nathaniel Wood uses the dart to perfection as a fundamental strike in his arsenal.  He is also 4-1 in the UFC, and his only loss is to John Dodson.

This will be a nip/tuck back and forth scrap, and I’ll give the slight edge in striking to Kenney; his round kicks are far more powerful than Wood’s, and he throws them by the baker's dozen.  At $7,400, Wood is a good roster option sitting between Cutelaba and Harris, but I’m taking Kenney to win the fight.  He’s sitting at $8,700 between Ankalaev and Volkov, and he'll likely be around the sixty significant strikes mark with the ability to steal some takedowns here and there.  Casey Kenney via decision.

Winner: Casey Kenney | Method: Decision

Liana Jojua (+325 ) vs. Miranda Maverick (-450)

Jojua: DK: $6.9k, FD: $9 | Maverick: DK: $9.3k, FD: $20

What’s the opposite of a showcase?  That’s what this fight will be when it comes to striking.  Jojua is an armbar specialist, with five of her eight professional wins coming via the technique.  She’s 1-1 in the UFC and got beat up in her debut against the tough striker Sarah Moras.

Odds makers set the opening marks at near even, but bettors have quickly made Maverick the (-365) favorite in just one day.  Her standup is slightly better than Jojua’s, but she has very good wrestling and a strong top game.  She stacks her opponents from the top, and that will make it difficult for Jojua to land her go-to submission.

Maverick will likely dominate with extended top control and land a high number of significant strikes in the process.  She’ll come at a premium just above Khabib and could be a good option as I think she can get a late choke submission.  Give me Maverick via rear-naked choke, round three.

Winner: Miranda Maverick | Method: Rear-naked Choke Rd.3 

Alexander Yakovlev (-160 ) vs. Joel Alvarez (+130)

Yako: DK: $7.2k, FD: $12 | Alvarez: DK: $9k, FD: $18

I’m feeling froggy with this one.  Joel Alvarez is a $9,000 cap hit and will probably be highly favored in this fight when the odds are set, but I’m rolling with my mellow, my man, Alexander Yakovlev.  Yako has shared the Octagon with an impressive cast, Demian Maia, Kamaru Usman, Paul Daley, Grey Maynard, Zak Cummings, and is 25-10 overall.  

Alvarez is a 6’3” flashy striker but has big holes in his standup, and although he is 17-2, he has not faced the level of competition that Yako has.  I’m leading off with an upset and taking Alexander Yakovlev by decision.

Winner: Alexander Yakovlev | Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves. 

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy. 

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