We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Main Card

Deiveson Figueiredo (-300) vs. Alex Perez (+230)

Figueiredo: $9k, FD: $21 | Perez: DK: $7.2k, FD: $18

I thumbed my nose at this matchup after the originally scheduled title challenger, Cody Garbrandt, was forced out against Deiveson Figueiredo due to injury. The fact Dana White granted Garbrandt an immediate title shot after dropping weight classes to flyweight tells you all you need to know about the title picture within the division. There is no picture, iCloud storage full; photos are no longer updating. In fact, there was probably some coaxing and serious palm greasing on Dana’s behalf to encourage Garbrandt to risk looking like Christian Bale in The Machinist just to make weight.

Deiveson Figueiredo was likely doing the Macarena, feeling himself after winning the title, coming off two destructions of the perennial contender Samwise Gamgee, aka Joseph Benevidez. But the more you look at those two wins, the less impressive they appear. Benevidez was a shed skin of his former self, a husk discarded after removing every attribute that made him the legitimate second best fighter in the division from the weight class’s inception. Gone was his hand speed and intricate footwork, gone was his reaction time, and most definitely, gone was his ability to take a punch.

Figueiredo never had to go through the Triple Champ, Henry Cejudo, to win the belt. Rather, the belt was a tax-deductible donation when Cejudo decided to relinquish both of his titles in favor of retiring. Cejudo left behind a division on the brink of extinction; to Deiveson’s credit, his dominant wins and scary power provided a little hope for the continuation of the division.

Let’s do a little MMA math. For those of you who continued reading after I mentioned math, the resumes of Figueiredo and Perez are perfect examples of why MMA Algebra is useless. Deiveson Figueiredo beat Joseph Benevidez twice in 2020, once pre-pandemic and once post-pandemic. Joseph Benevidez destroyed Alex Perez in 2018 in the first round; Benevidez likely spent the last of his hand speed in that fight and caused Perez all kinds of problems on the feet for the four minutes it lasted. Alex Perez destroyed Jussier Formiga in the first round via leg kicks back in June. Jussier Formiga is the only name in the L column on Figueiredo’s record, after Formiga dominated the first two rounds of the fight with takedowns and top control.

What does it all equate to? Well, it makes for a far more competitive fight than I first thought Alex Perez would be able to make it. Perez made his way to the UFC by way of the Contender series in 2017. He’s gone 6-1 in that time; four of those six wins came by stoppage. Perez will be at a power disadvantage in the standup, but he has heavy leg kicks, which he throws at high volume. The damage created from the leg kicks allows him to slow down his opponents and work takedowns. I refer to it every week; wrestler-striking, Alex Perez has it and looks to sit behind power punches to initiate takedowns.

A bit of a throwback, Perez has an old-school style of ground and pound, raining down hammer fists at a monsoon rate. He likes to hang out in the half guard from the top and drop bombs; he’s one of the rare fighters who make the half guard and side control positions more dominant than the mount or back mount. Perez can, without doubt, plagiarize Formiga’s blueprint for beating Figueiredo, clinching and working takedowns against the cage, and stacking up top control time; no bibliography.

On the other side of the cage, Figueiredo is a savvy striker who uses a low hand position to lure his opponents into traps. He invites opponents to engage first and counters with big power punches. He wants to make his opponents chase him and make them miss, leaving them open to counters. Head movement; Figueiredo not only moves his head but uses his footwork to change angles, all the while keeping his hands low to make it appear he is defenseless. But it’s all part of the lure bobbing under the water inviting solicited attacks that he can anticipate and meet halfway with big power shots.

Figueiredo’s weakness is his guard game. It’s not that he doesn’t have submissions off his back; it’s that he tends to allow himself to be held down for long stretches before he attempts to scramble. If Perez can’t get Figueiredo down, it’s going to be a long, quick night, if you know what I mean. Figueiredo is 19-1 with sixteen wins coming by way of finish and likely to be the one with his hand raised if the fight does not go the distance. Currently, at (+250), Perez will likely be the underdog I drop a ten spot on. I definitely think he has a shot to win, controlling the fight with takedowns and heavy strikes from the top. But, I’m taking Figueiredo to win via TKO, round three.

Winner: Deiveson Figueiredo | Method: TKO Rd.3

Valentina Shevchenko (-1400 ) vs. Jennifer Maia (+750)

Shevchenko: DK: $9.6k, FD: $23 | Maia: DK: $6.6k, FD: $8

The defending, reigning, and undisputed Flyweight Champion, Valentina Shevchenko, is coming into this title defense as a (-1600) favorite. Honestly, I was shocked. How is it not (-3200)? The chances Valentina catches Covid mid-fight and develops a fever and can’t finish might be worth dropping a buck or two on the (+900) Jennifer Maia.

Valentina Shevchenko is one of my favorite fighters, and I currently rank her as the third best woman fighter of all time, behind Amanda Nunes and Cris Cyborg. Shevchenko’s only two losses in the UFC have come at the hands of Nunes, but in their first fight, a three-round contest in 2016, Shevchenko dominated the third round and had Nunes fully mounted, dropping bombs from the top as the final buzzer sounded. Had that fight gone into the championship rounds, it’s almost universally acknowledged that Valentina would have won that fight. But it didn’t, and she didn’t.

The only flaw in Shevchenko’s game is her lack of aggression and heavy reliance on counter striking. It’s what cost her the second fight against Nunes. Shevchenko isn’t all striking, though. Her ground game is elite like her standup, and people tend to sleep on her ability to take the fight to the mat and dominate from the top. The check-hook from the southpaw stance is her go-to weapon, her Jordan fade away; she counters forward pressure with it and catches fighters coming in.   

Jennifer Maia’s best attribute is her aggressive forward pressure and heavy, wide punches. Unfortunately for her, that plays right into Valentina’s strengths. Maia is coming off a surprising first-round armbar submission of Joanne Calderwood but is only one fight removed from a loss to former title challenger Katlyn Chookagian. She is a combination striker who mixes in leg kicks and averages four significant strikes landed per minute compared to Shevchenko’s more modest three per minute. However, Maia has only one takedown in five UFC bouts and Shevchenko averages over two per fight. That’s bad news for Maia; her striking just isn’t as advanced nor technical enough to survive for five rounds on the feet with Shevchenko.

I need Shevchenko to make a statement in this fight with an emphatic stoppage and call out Amanda Nunes afterward for a third fight. Shevchenko is the only woman in the world who can beat Nunes right now with just a couple of small adjustments to her output. Shevchenko will likely be the highest Fantasy cap hit and a bit of a gamble if she plays it safe and is content with cruising to an innocuous decision victory. On wax, Valentina Shevchenko via TKO, round three.

Winner: Valentina Shevchenko | Method: TKO, Rd.3

Mike Perry (-150 ) vs Tim Means (+120)

Perry: DK: $8.2k, FD: $17 | Means: DK:$8k, FD: $15

This will be a wild matchup between a seasoned, technical veteran and a wild, unpredictable power striker. Mike “Platinum” Perry is the latter, and if you’re a Johnny-come-lately fan (or a casual as referred to on MMA forums), you’ll probably remember Perry as the guy who rolled into a fight a couple of months ago with his girlfriend acting as his only corner(wo)man. You may remember her from the sound technical advice she offered Perry in between rounds such as, “you’re looking good, babe,” and “where should I put the ice?” Perry recently auctioned off the opportunity to be his second cornerman on fight night, and UFC middleweight contender, Darren Till, offered Perry five grand to secure the honor. Perry declined the offer, and instead, the two may end up being opponents in 2021.

Perry is a power striker with a mean streak and aggression to spare. He’s not the most technical fighter; he won’t wow you with slick footwork or fancy head movement, but he will string punches together and go forward without hesitation. Relying on more power than technique when it comes to his ground game, Perry can tread water in the deep end and has only been submitted once in twenty professional fights.

Tim Means is the savvy Vet with over forty professional fights to his name, including twenty-three appearances in the Octagon. He’s a high volume striker, averaging close to five significant strikes landed per minute, who continually touches his opponents with peppering shots to break down their defenses.  In his back pocket, Tim Means carries takedowns just in case he finds himself at a disadvantage on the feet, and his all-around game makes him a tough out for anyone in the division and a formidable gatekeeper.

Perry’s original opponent, Robbie Lawler, was guaranteed to be a banger even with Lawler coming off a string of poor showings, but Tim Means will, in a lot of ways, be a more dangerous opponent. When it comes to Fantasy rosters, Perry has a better chance at winning by stoppage and is a good gamble. I think Tim Means’ experience and tactical prowess will allow him to control the fight from the outside, and he has more paths to victory to travel than Perry. Give me ....Platinum Perry, via decision.

Winner: Mike Perry | Method: Decision

Katlyn Chookagian (+205) vs. Cynthia Calvillo (-265)

Chookagian: DK: $7.5k, FD: $21 | Calvillo: DK: $8.7k, FD: $9

Katlyn Chookagian has the honorable distinction of having fought both Shevchenko sisters and having lived to tell about it. She even beat one of them. Two fights ago, she dominated Antonina Shevchenko by securing takedowns and maintaining top position. The fight previous, she lost to Valentina in a bout for the featherweight title. She’s coming off a one-round TKO loss to the little monster Jessica Andrade. Andrade landed a vicious liver punch, causing Chookagian to turn around and attempt to flee from the pain and in search of a nearby Port-a-John in order to avoid a Justine Kish bowel malfunction inside the cage. Google that.

Chookagian is a solid all-around fighter and has several big wins on her resume, Irene Aldana, Alexis Davis, Joanne Calderwood, and Jennifer Maia. She’s a long, rangy striker with consistent high output, averaging six significant strikes landed per minute. However, her strikes are largely peppering, stay-busy type of strikes, and lack power. She’s not a finisher; in fourteen professional wins, she has three finishes and hasn’t recorded one since 2016.

Cynthia Calvillo has been a highly touted prospect since she made her UFC debut in 2017. She made a name for herself fighting out of Urijah Faber’s Team Alpha Male gym in Sacramento, CA. At 6-1-1 in the promotion, she recently made the jump up to flyweight after struggling to make the strawweight weight limit on multiple occasions. Calvillo’s major malfunction, her major boggle, if you will, is her lackluster, rather dull performances; her performances have never compelled you to ascribe the adjectives savage, monster, or killer after her name.

Calvillo is technically sound and doesn’t have any major holes in her game, but she lacks respectable power and has a starchy striking, no wrinkles. Wrestling/grappling is her strong suit, and she tends to rack up significant strikes using dozens of peppering shots while hunting for submissions.  

You can find Chookagian as high as a (+220) underdog, and I’m telling you right now, the gap between her and Calvillo is not that large. I think Katlyn can stay on the outside and make it difficult for Calvillo to score takedowns.  I’ve been careless picking underdogs lately, but I think Chookagian can get the win here. Katlyn Chookagian via decision.

Winner: Katlyn Chookagian | Method: Decision

Mauricion "Shogun" Rua (+140 ) vs Paul Craig (-170)

Shogun: DK: $7.7k, FD: $13 | Craig: DK: $8.5k, FD: $18

This is a rematch from a year ago; the first fight ended in a rare split draw. Looking at it now, it was a fitting ending because both fighters are evenly matched. Their strengths play into each other’s strengths, and the most surprising takeaway from the first fight was how effective Paul Craig’s striking was. Craig doubled Shogun’s significant strikes fifty to twenty-five, but Shogun closed the gap by recording six minutes of top control.

On the feet, Craig had several moments when he flurried with long combinations and trapped Shogun against the cage. Craig uses long-range kicks well and is a deceptively effective striker when he lets his hands go. Shogun looked unprepared for Craig’s striking, almost as if he had completely dismissed it going into the fight. Shogun took the fight to the ground not solely because of a perceived tactical advantage but also due to necessity.

Shogun is most known for his hyper-aggressive style and was at one time the scariest man on the planet when he fought in the Pride organization, the MMA golden years. He held the UFC title briefly after defeating Lyoto Machida but immediately lost it to a guy named Jon Jones. Although Shogun’s hand speed and ability to take a shot have diminished, he still maintains the aggressive style that made him a legend. Quietly, Shogun has only one loss since 2015 and has gone 5-1-1 in that span, his lone loss coming in 2018 to Anthony Smith.

The way Shogun moves and throws his strikes is as iconic in MMA as Ken Griffey Jr.’s swing is in baseball; it’s ominous and foreboding, with it comes certain doom. In recent years, however, Shogun has relied on his underrated wrestling and ability to score takedowns to win fights. He throws bombs from the top, and he will need to remain active to stifle Craig’s nasty guard.

Paul Craig is a high-level Jiu-Jitsu player and has a stunning last-second submission victory over the guy who just destroyed Ion Cutelaba last month, Magomed Ankalaev. He was dominated for 14:50 but scored a triangle choke submission with one second remaining on the clock. Craig will need to be more active from the guard this time around and look to sweep and advance position. I’m taking another underdog—who's actually not an underdog now that I'm looking at it— Paul Craig, via rear-naked choke, round three.

Winner: Paul Craig | Method: Rear-naked Choke Rd.3

Prelims

Fights/Fighters to Keep an Eye on

Joaquin Buckley (-250 ) vs. Jordan Wright (+195)

Buckley: DK: $8.9k, FD: $19 | Wright: DK: $7.3k, FD: $10  

Buckley is the guy who scored possibly the greatest knockout in UFC history last month when he landed a jumping, spinning back kick after Impa Kasanganay made the day-one white belt mistake of catching a kick and holding onto it like a dear friend.  

Buckley is fighting the Beverley Hills Ninja Jordan Wright, who has some wild KO’s of his own. Someone is getting KO’d in incredible fashion. I can see Jordan Wright landing an early spinning wheel kick and ending this early almost as much as I can see Buckley coming out throwing bombs and overwhelming Wright straight out the gate. Wright’s weakness is his hands, he doesn’t have much more than a powerful right cross, and he doesn’t defend punches well, retreating with his head up.  

Joaquin will have to get in the pocket quickly and stay there. If he gets stuck on the outside within Wright’s kicking distance, he could be on the receiving end of an all-time great KO. The finishing abilities of both fighters make them solid Roster options, but I think Buckley will come out aggressive and look to work his boxing in short-range and get the early finish. Joaquin Buckley via KO, round one.

Winner: Joaquin Buckley | Method: KO Rd.1

Kyle Daukaus (-310) DK: $8.8k | FD: $20

 The brother of my biggest fan, Chris Daukaus, Kyle is a certified sleeper. In his debut this past June, Kyle gave the highly touted—well, at least before he got his whole entire ass cracked this past weekend—Brendan Allen all he could handle. The fight featured back and forth grappling exchanges with vicious ground and pound from both fighters. Kyle can bang on his feet, too, with long straight punches and clean combinations, but he shines on the mat. He’s 9-1 with eight wins by submission. He’s fighting Dustin Stoltzfus who will be making his debut and looks to be a wrestling-dominant fighter. At $8,800, I like Daukaus as a middle-tier pickup. This should be a grappling showcase, don’t miss it.

Daniel Rodriguez (-310) DK: $9.1k | FD: $20

 Daniel Rodriguez is another UFC addition from the Contender Series and already has a notable submission victory over Tim Means. He trains with Joe Stich Em Up Schilling, who is a world-class striker and former Glory Kickboxing Champion.

Rodriguez manages distance well, can strike going backward, and cuts off the ring to set up angles. You know I’m a sucker for leg kicks, and D-Rod has plenty in his arsenal. He’s coming off a two-minute first-round KO victory in August after he was almost knocked out himself in the opening minute.  

This won’t be an easy fight for Rodriguez, his opponent, Nicolas Dalby, is an aggressive power striker who throws caution to the wind. He tends to wade into the pocket with wide punches, which could prove to be bad for his health, as Rodriguez is a good counter striker.

Fight Of The Night

Brandon Moreno (-175 ) vs. Brandon Royval (+145 )

Moreno: $8.6k, FD: $18 | Royval: DK: $7.6k, FD: $14

There’s little chance that this isn’t the fight of the night. It’s borderline creepy how similar these guys are, almost like twins separated at birth. When the fight goes to the ground, it’s going to look like a cartoon fight, just a cloud of debris and flailing limbs tumbling around the cage. Both fighters have active guards from their back and never stop scrambling, looking for sweeps and ways back to their feet. From the top, they both look to advance to dominant positions and hunt for submissions. Combined, they have eighteen submission wins, ten for Moreno and eight for Royval.

Continuing with the similarities, they’re both riding two-fight winning streaks, including wins against a common opponent, Kai Kara France. The standup is carbon copy as well; both are long, rangy one-punch strikers who lack power but Royval lands at a higher percentage at over fifty percent to Moreno’s thirty-four percent accuracy. They’re both fearless and aren’t opposed to engaging in a firefight.

The one glaring difference separating these two fighters is experience. Moreno is possibly one dominant win away from getting the next title shot, the winner of the main event. He was a contestant on the Ultimate fighter in 2016 and is 6-2-1 in the time since. This will be Brandon Royval’s third fight in the UFC, all of which have come since May of this year. I don’t think you can go wrong with either fighter on your Fantasy roster; they’re sure to score moderate/high significant strikes depending on how long the fight spends on the mat. I have zero clue who wins this fight, and I’m going to stop and flip a coin right now…Brandon Royval via decision.

Winner: Brandon Royval | Method: Decision

Sleeper

Jared Gooden (+120) DK: $7.9k | FD: $15

Gooden will be making his debut and a veteran of the Titan FC promotion.  He is a short, stalky power puncher with aggressive forward pressure.  He throws bombs, and his opponent, the veteran Versace Model Alan Jouban, doesn't handle forward pressure very well and is an overall very average fighter.  With thirteen finishes in seventeen professional wins, I think Gooden can fly under the radar and steal a big W like the one the judges stole from Kay Hansen last weekend.  At $7,900, Gooden has a better shot at a stoppage than anyone in his price range, i.e., Tim Means and Ariane Lipski.

Pick "Em

Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval

            Winner: Brandon Royval

 Method: Decision

Joaquin Buckley vs. Jordan Wright

            Winner: Joaquin Buckley

 Method: KO Rd.1

Antonina Shevchenko vs. Adriane Lipski

            Winner: Antonina Shevchenko

 Method: Decision

Nicolas Dalby vs. Daniel Rodriguez

            Winner: Daniel Rodriguez

 Method: TKO Rd.3

Alan Jouban vs. Jared Gooden

            Winner: Jared Gooden

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Kyle Daukaus vs. Dustin Stoltzfus

            Winner: Kyle Daukaus

 Method: Decision

Louis Cosce vs. Sasha Palatnikov

            Winner: Louis Cosce

            Method: TKO Rd.1

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves. 

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy. 

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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