LineStar® Weekly Knockout (UFC) - UFC 257 McGregor vs. Poirier

We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Main Card

"The Notorious" Conor McGregor (-325 ) vs. Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier (+250)

McGregor: DK: $9.1k, FD: $21 | Poirier: DK: $7.1k, FD: $18

Stan1

/stan/ 

INFORMAL

noun

noun: stan; plural noun: stans

1  an overzealous or obsessive fan of a particular celebrity.

 Verb

verb: stan; 3rd person present: stans; past tense: stanned; past participle: stanned; gerund or present participle: stanning

-be an overzealous or obsessive fan of a particular celebrity

I’m a Conor McGregor Stan like I’m a Stan of the man who coined the term, Eminem.  In many ways, the two are similar; in fact, you could say Conor McGregor is the Marshall Mathers of MMA.  There were iconic fighters before Conor McGregor ever peacocked into the Octagon.  To name a few, Tito, Chuck, Randy, Vitor, B.J., Hughes, GSP, Anderson, and Bones Jones.  There were also iconic MC’s before Eminem won the Rap Olympics and met Dr. Dre (get well, homie).  A few golden era MC’s: Rakim, KRS-One, all of Wu-Tang, Onyx, Mobb Deep, Nas, Outkast, Ice cube, Pac, and B.I.G.

Slim Shady became a novelty, a white MC who could actually rap; his subject matter was so outlandish it crossed into the grey area of genius. Off the colossal success of his sophomore album, he went from doublewide trailers to Hollywood trailers, from parking lots to backlots, from mom’s spaghetti to Olive Garden’s Tour of Italy.  

True transcendence is when the byproduct of one’s success is the creation of opportunity for others. Eminem took the culture, the art form to which he owed his life, to heights its extremities were previously unable to reach.  As others did before him, Em did for many who have followed, paved the way.

In much the same way, Conor McGregor transcended Mixed Martial Arts.  He went from welfare to fighting Floyd Mayweather in a few short years.  My sixty-five-year-old mother-in-law knows who Conor McGregor is and never misses his fights.  But she can’t name a single other fighter.  She’ll be over this weekend, bogarting the surgically enhanced Black and Mild, and claiming Ancestry DNA told her she’s five percent Irish, The Eminem Show bumping in the background.

McGregor’s success cracked the pay scale and raised the bar for fighter pay, brought the sport to the attention of new sponsors, new television networks like ESPN and ABC, and even created a blueprint for fellow fighters on how to create a marketable persona.  Talk s!#t.  Talk s!#t and back it up.  The second part is the most important.

When you say you’re going to knock out the greatest featherweight fighter of all time, a man on a ten-year winning streak, in seconds, and you actually do it, that’s transcending s!#t.  Who else can say they’ve fought the GOAT in two different sports?  I’m sure there was once a Roman Gladiator who killed the King’s champion and a lion in the same tournament.  I’m also sure that Gladiator didn’t grab the mic afterward and tell the King to call the Queen and ask her to break out the red panties.

A vintage Conor McGregor victory this weekend over Dustin Poirier would make it very difficult for a Khabib Nurmagomedov teetering on the edge of retirement to turn down a rematch and a shot at 30-0.  What we learned from their first meeting was that McGregor’s grappling is far better than people thought.  He stuffed multiple takedowns and made Khabib work hard for the ones he was able to score.  World-class grappler and the number one welterweight contender, Gilbert Burns, recently stated that McGregor’s grappling/wrestling is excellent and very underrated after rolling with him.

Conor’s boxing is the best in the sport; his ability to control range is only rivaled by Israel Adesanya, and his timing and accuracy are in a league of their own.  His one-punch, thirteen seconds KO of Jose Aldo, was far from a lucky punch.  It was a counter that he was rehearsing minutes before the fight while warming up backstage.  McGregor landed that left hand on his first attempt.  That’s like hitting a home run on the first Nolan Ryan fastball you see.  

I say all that to say this, Conor McGregor has shown some holes in his striking and has developed some bad habits in recent outings.  Against Khabib, Conor used his lead hand almost exclusively as a measuring stick, looking for perfect opportunities to telegraph his left hand.  Often times, Conor fell off balance over his lead leg as he overextended on his power shots.  Khabib keyed in on this and was the one to record the only knockdown in the fight.  McGregor needs to be dynamic with his lead right and look to work angles off hooks, short uppercuts, and jabs like he used to.  

McGregor's kicks are also dynamic when he doesn’t resort to throwing only flashy spinning wheel kicks.  Chad Mendez wanted us to believe it was his lack of cardio— taking the fight on ten-day notice—that led him to gas out in the second round against McGregor.  Sorry, Chad, we’re canceling after the trial period; we ain’t buying it.  The back kicks and front snap kicks to Mendez’s body from the opening bell sapped his energy and stole his will, not lack of cardio.

In their first fight, McGregor TKO’d Poirier after landing a glancing left hand behind Dustin’s ear.  It was a legal shot, but it was kind of an unfortunate way for the fight to end; it was shaping up to be very competitive. Poirier had success early, landing his left hand multiple times, but he seemed too anxious and never had a chance to settle down.  Needless to say, Dustin Poirier is far from the fighter he was in 2014 fighting at featherweight.

Poirier became the Interim Lightweight Champion after dominating Max Holloway (and you saw what he just did to Calvin Kattar) in 2019 and has gone 11-2 since the McGregor fight with notable wins over Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez, Max Holloway, Anthony Pettis, and Dan Hooker.  The only name in his L column since 2016 is Khabib, from a title unification bout.  In that fight, Poirier was the closest we've seen anyone come to finishing Khabib when he locked in a deep guillotine choke in the third round.  Of course, Khabib escaped but admitted later that the choke was deep and caused him to raise an eyebrow.  

Can Dustin win this fight?  Absolutely.  This is a dangerous fight for McGregor, and it gets even more so the longer the fight goes.  I expect Dustin to be the fresher fighter late into the third round and beyond.  Poirier has been as close to war as a civilian can get inside the Octagon.  Although McGregor has had tough fights against Nate Diaz (twice) and Khabib, he broke mentally in two of those fights—you could even say he broke against Floyd Mayweather.  Dustin Poirier doesn’t break.

Technically, Poirier’s boxing is sound.  The Diamond can fit his power left hand into tight spaces through the opponent’s guard.  In most striking disciplines, the fundamental is to turn your punches over.  Usually, as the fist travels, the wrist will rotate, so the top two knuckles end up on the bottom of the fist when it lands.  Poirier will shoot his left hand out like a piston with no tell and no rotation, so the first two knuckles remain on top.  This keeps the elbow tucked in and tight all the way through the end of the punch, making it quicker and easier to slip through a closed guard.  Manny Pacquiao does this a lot, especially with his jab.

Dustin throws shovel hooks, punches that are halfway between uppercuts and hooks and originate from chest level.  These are harder to see than strikes that start traditionally from eye level.  That’s why it’s tricky defending uppercuts; you don’t see them coming.  Poirier will have to use feints to draw out McGregor’s left hand, making him reach and leave himself open to combinations in return.  The most notable hole in Dustin’s stand up is he tends to drop his lead hand to his waist when he fires his cross.  This is Bad News Bears when facing a guy like Conor who likes to time you and slips out of range while firing his own left hand.     

The southpaw vs. southpaw matchup is one that McGregor hasn't had since he fought Dennis Siver in 2015, and it may turn into a battle of left hands. Also, don't be surprised if you see Dustin look to clinch and wrestle to wear down Conor in the early rounds.  

Okay, who wins?  Early on, I leaned towards Dustin Poirier; a four to five-round fight highly favors his durability and cardio.  But recently, in my dreams, I began to see Conor landing that long left hand and bouncing Poirier’s head off the canvas.  Conor McGregor via TKO, round two.  Bring on Khabib, again. 

Winner: Conor McGregor | Method: TKO Rd.2

Michael Chandler (+105 ) vs Dan Hooker (-135)

Chandler: DK: $7.7k, FD: $18 | Hooker: DK:$8.5k, FD: $19

Over the years, many fighters have climbed to the top of the MMA world rankings outside the UFC.  Justin Gaethje (The World Series of Fighting), Gilbert Melendez (Bellator/Strikeforce), and Eddie Alvarez (Bellator) are a few who come to mind.  Michael Chandler, by way of the Bellator promotion, can be added to that list.  The fellow San Diego, CA representative, Michael Chandler, has long been a name mentioned as one of the best lightweights in the world, and speculation of how he would fair in the Octagon has been a big debate among hardcore MMA heads. 

Chandler has always reminded me of a more dynamic Matt Hughes; that’s lofty praise as Hughes is an all-time great.  Wrestler striking, Matt Hughes was the epitome of it, and Chandler might have the best in the game.  Basic one to two-punch combinations, with tight technique and heavy power, good enough to hang with elite strikers, but mostly used to set up takedowns, that’s wrestler striking.  MC’s right hand is a piston, and he uses it to cover a lot of distance.  When he lands it, people take naps.

Chandler’s ground game is a throwback to Mark Coleman and Tito Ortiz, the originators of ground and pound.  Tito never bothered to advance position from the top; he sat in his opponent’s guard and dropped elbows and fists and more elbows.  That’s Chandler’s style.  He doesn’t waste much energy passing guard and goes to work in the closed guard like a mini Tito.

I don’t like this fight for Chandler and Chandler said the same thing himself.  He relies heavily on his right hand and lacks a traditional jab or the footwork to close distance, and he tends to get caught leaping into the pocket.  The lead hook should be used sparingly to initiate combinations.  Chandler uses it like he does his right hand to close distance, leaving him open to counters.  Leg kicks, Chandler doesn’t defend them, and that was the factor that cost him the Bellator title against Brent Primus (he later avenged that loss, though).

On the feet, Dan Hooker is Michael Chandler’s kryptonite.  He’s a long striker with a rangy jab that he fires off while circling and maintaining his presence outside the pocket.  Hooker’s most recent fight against Dustin Poirier was a 2020 fight of the year candidate.  That fight was all Hooker early before Poirier stormed back and was two rounds to two heading into the fifth.  Poirier dominated the final five minutes and took the fight.

“The Hangman’s” kickboxing is elite and among the best in the lightweight division.  Fight ending power, Hooker has it, and he also has the creativity to set traps to maximize it.  Hooker changes levels with his striking mid-combination and mixes in varieties of round kicks to the legs with front teep and snap kicks to the body.  His special move is a standing knee that he uses to counter pressure or offensively behind his strikes.  This guy will knee you in the face while you’re standing completely upright.

This fight is simple, if Dan Hooker stays on his feet, he wins the fight, and if Michael Chandler scores takedowns consistently, he wins the fight.  This being only a three-round fight heavily favors Chandler and his game plan because he can whittle away rounds from the top and grind his way to a victory.  But I think he gets caught.  It hurts me to say this about a man who has represented my city to the fullest, but lesser strikers than Hooker have finished him.  Hooker via TKO, round two.

Winner: Dan Hooker | Method: TKO Rd.2

Jessica Eye (-110) vs. Joanne Calderwood (-120)

Eye: DK: $7.8k, FD: $15 | Calderwood: DK: $8.4k, FD: $15

I don’t know how this fight landed on the main card; there I said it.  I’ve never ever ever ever ever seen an entertaining Jessica Eye fight.  In fact, last summer, she headlined what became known as the worst main event ever booked in UFC history.  Eye has very stiff, robotic, rehearsed striking.  It’s like she’s reading what to do next off a teleprompter, no fluidity.  She’s tough and durable and has a lot of heart, all of the token superlatives used to compliment a fighter who’s tough to compliment.  

Joanne Calderwood has very stiff, robotic, rehearsed striking.  It’s like she’s reading what to do next off a teleprompter, no fluidity.  She’s tough and durable and has a lot of heart, all of the token superlatives used to compliment a fighter who’s tough to compliment.  Yes, I copied and pasted that.  Anything I can say about Jessica Eye is also applicable for Calderwood.  She’s coming off a loss to Jennifer Maia, a fight in which Calderwood had a title shot at stake but only showed up physically and remained mentally in quarantine back at the hotel.

Calderwood is the higher volume striker, and if you find yourself with a Fantasy gun to your head and in a position to have to take one of these fighters, choose her.  Joanne Calderwood via decision.

Winner: Joanne Calderwood | Method: Decision

Matt Frevola (+130 ) vs Ottman Azaitar (-160)

Frevola: DK: $7.4k, FD: $10 | Azaitar: DK: $8.8k, FD: $20

Ottman Azaitar throws the type of bombs you can catch a secondhand knockout from.  You’re just chilling there on the futon, Truly in hand, watching the scraps, and next thing you know, you’re a crime scene chalk outline on your one hundred fifty thread count Ikea rug.  Unfortunately, that’s about all Azaitar has, at least from what little fight footage I’ve been able to find.  His UFC debut against the highly touted Khama Worthy last year lasted only one minute and thirty seconds.  One minute and twenty-five seconds were spent circling each other threateningly like my two faded tios arguing over the carne asada.

Matt Frevola should win this fight.  He’s the better all-around fighter with the wrestling skills to dictate where the fight takes place.  Frevola’s striking is sneaky good; he uses a variety of kicks and tight, crisp boxing.  Azaitar will definitely have the advantage in the power department, but Frevola’s striking might be a little more technical.  Let’s say this, Frevola’s striking is good enough to enhance the effectiveness of his takedowns and good enough to compete if he isn’t able to score any.

When drafting your Fantasy roster, Ottman has the most upside; he can end the fight at any moment.  But as the slight underdog, Frevola has the skills to stifle Ottman’s striking with timely takedowns and top control.  I’m rolling with Frevola via decision.

Winner: Matt Frevola | Method: Decision

Marina Rodriguez (+230 ) vs Amanda Ribas (-300)

Rodriguez: DK: $7k, FD: $9 | Ribas: DK: $9.2k, FD: $20

Amanda Ribas is regarded as a future strawweight title contender, a Jiu-Jitsu specialist with improving above average striking.  Usually, the word specialist is somewhat of a derogatory term for a fighter, much like the term game manager for a QB.  Specialist usually means all or nothing; a fighter will excel in their area of expertise, or it's a wrap otherwise.  The most famous specialist has got to be Ronda Rousey.

Ribas has the traditional hunched-over, shoulders-rolled-forward, stalking Brazilian Muay Thai style with unflinching aggression.  She uses her jab well enough to set up spinning kicks and gain entry into the pocket for standing elbows.  More importantly, her striking is good enough to buy her time and stave off desperation for an immediate takedown.

In just four UFC bouts, Ribas has already notched notable wins over the always-game Randa Markos and fellow Jiu-Jitsu specialist and world-champion Mackenzie Dern.  What separates Ribas’s ground game from other excellent grapplers is her ground and pound.  Many Jitz players are position grapplers; they look to advance position and search for submission attempts and don’t implement much ground striking.  Ribas not only looks to advance, but she also looks to finish you with strikes from the top.

Marina Rodriguez will be at a slight disadvantage on the feet and a substantial one on the ground.   The thought of a takedown is usually enough for her opponent to get her to the mat; her takedown defense is just tuurble, Charles Barkley voice.  She’s a long but not rangy striker who doesn’t implement a traditional jab to manage her range.  Rodriguez relies on aggressive, short combinations, usually initiated with her power right hand, to close the distance.  Her reliance on her right-hand makes her predictable, easy to read, and that won’t come in handy when the opponent wants to secure takedowns.

Striking from the guard is a grossly underused tactic.  Here’s your MMA history lesson for the day: check out the classic UFC heavyweight title fight between Bas Rutten and Kevin Randleman.  This is the best example of dominating the fight from the bottom position.  Ribas will need to be careful when she is on top because Marina throws nasty cutting elbows from her guard, and they can turn the tide of a fight quickly.

Fantasy-wise, I don’t see much value in Marina Rodriguez.  She’s likely to spend too much time on her back, but if she can stay upright, she does average five significant strikes landed per minute.  But I’m taking Ribas on wax.  Let’s go with a rear-naked choke, round three.

Winner: Amanda Ribas | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Prelims

Highlighted Matchup

Nasrat Haqparast (+225 ) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (-285)

Haqparast: DK: $7.3k, FD: $9 | Tsarukyan: DK: $8.9k, FD: $20  

Banger.  There’s no GPS alternative route around it; this is a banger.  Other than the main and co-main event participants, Arman Tsarukyan is the fighter I’m most looking forward to watching.  This guy’s kickboxing is fundamentally sound, so sound that it’s flashy without being flashy.  Does that make sense?  Let me try this; the way he throws basic fundamental, day one combinations is so smooth and effortless that he makes them look like flashy techniques.  

In a beginner’s kickboxing class, you’ll learn to follow hand combinations with kicks from the opposite leg of the hand you ended the combination with.  For example, if you throw a jab from the orthodox stance, you follow it with a right kick.  If you throw a right cross, you follow it with a left kick.  Then you learn to string those basic combinations into longer combinations, and you eventually become as good as Tsarukyan.  Simple. 

Tsarukyan has actual flashy techniques in his arsenal as well, though.  He’ll finish combinations with spinning back fists and back kicks as well as takedown attempts.  Just when you get a read on his striking, he can time your attack and duck under with a single or double leg attempt and work his top game.

Nasrat Haqparast’s looks like a male nurse, a proud graduate of Devry University, but don’t let that fool you.  He’s an excellent southpaw striker with enough power in his left hand to land you in a mechanical bed in his nursing ward.  Nasrat is long and has an educated lead hand that he uses in a variety of ways, as a range-finding jab, a lead hook, and as a setup for power strikes.  Haqparast consistently throws three to four-punch combinations and likes to punctuate them with a sneaky power uppercut.

I expect this fight to stay standing for the duration.  Nasrat is hard to take down, and I think Tsarukyan will look to make a statement with his striking.  Arman’s attacks are more diverse, though, as Nasrat tends to rely almost exclusively on boxing.  Both fighters are high-pace/output fighters, with a good shot at scoring a stoppage and will make excellent roster pickups.  I’m giving the edge to Tsarukyan; I think he’s a special striker, but I don’t see a finish.  Arman Tsarukyan via decision.

Winner: Arman Tsarukyan | Method: Decision

Fighters to Consider

Makhmud Muradov (-145 ) DK: $8.6k, FD: $17

The Lance Armstrong of the UFC.  No, that’s not a PED reference.  In combat sports, the term “get on your bike” means to circle the cage/ring and don’t stop.  Muradov rides his bike, yellow jersey and all, for the entire fight.  He is the perfect example of perpetual lateral movement while staying active on the outside.  Body striking, Makhmud’s is textbook, headshots to open up body shots and vice versa.  Stop right now.  Google Muradov’s fight against Trevor Smith.  It’s one of the nastiest KO’s you’ll see.  Muradov is fighting Andrew Filthy Rotten Sanchez, but I think Muradov wins, viciously.  He’s a lock for first-team all KO with sixteen career TKO/KO’s and a Fantasy monster.

Khalil Rountree (-340 ) DK: $9.3k, FD: $22

Khalil Roundtree is fighting Marcin Prachnio, a Prachnio who is 0-3 in the UFC.  That’s enough to pick Rountree alone, but Rountree also happens to have nasty Muay Thai.  Training out of the Tiger Gym in Thailand, Khalil has a traditional Muay Thai style with devastating leg and body kicks.  He’s basically a real-life Tong Po of the UFC.  He wins this fight, and he wins it by TKO. 

Movsar Evloev (-600) DK: $9.4k, FD: $23

Movsar Evloev is the second coming of Frankie Edger; tight, quick hands with excellent lateral movement and solid wrestling/grappling.  Evloev averages three takedowns and four and a half significant strikes per minute.  His opponent, Nik Lentz, is a UFC veteran who averages similar numbers but is also on the downside of his career. Evloev is a future problem for anyone in the featherweight division, and he'll dominate this fight, racking up takedowns, top control time, and significant strikes.

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleeper

I dropped a ten spot on Gaetano Pirrello for Wednesday's Magny vs. Chiesa card. He got smoked from the jump. Never had a chance. I don't think he even threw a single strike. The biggest underdog with upset potential for this card is Dustin Poirier. At (+250), he has a ton of value, and if he can get this fight into the championship rounds, I think he will take over. Dustin hits hard, and McGregor gasses heavy. 

Pick 'Em

Brad Tavares (-140 ) vs. Antonio Carlos Junior (+110 )

 

            Winner: Brad Tavares

 Method: Decision

Julianna Pena (+105 ) vs. Sara McMann (-135)

 

            Winner: Sara McMann

 Method: Decision

Khalil Rountree (-340) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+260)

Winner: Khalil Rountree

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Makhmud Muradov (-145) vs. Andrew Sanchez (+115)

    Winner: Makhmud Muradov

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Nik Lentz (+400) vs. Movsar Evloev (-600)

    Winner: Mover Evloev

 Method: Decision

Amir Albazi (+100) vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-115)

    Winner: Amir Albazi (cuz I don't want to write Zhalgas Zhumagulov again...damnit)

 Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves. 

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy. 

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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