We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Main Card

Gilbert Burns (+215 ) vs. Kamaru Usman (-275)

Burns: DK: $7.2k, FD: $ | Usman: DK: $9k, FD: $

I once blew a happy fuse, much like Cartman once blew a funny fuse. Using a picture of Kenny’s ass, Cartman created a missing child ad and printed it on the back of milk cartons. One day, a couple showed up on Cartman’s doorstep to claim Kenny as their son. They had ass faces. Having witnessed the funniest thing he would ever see, Cartman’s sense of humor overloaded, and he was subsequently unable to find anything funny ever again.

My happy fuse blew when Joe Rogan went to the slow-motion replay that captured Kamaru Usman breaking Colby Covington’s jaw with a haloed right hand. As if guided by the touch of a higher being, the right hand landed at its absolute apex and within two hairs of its intended target. It left Colby with a grotesque expression of awe as he walked back to his corner slack-jawed.

It wasn’t depression, the state I was left in. It was a sterile flatness, a lack of highs like a sound engineer compressing vocals. For months I remained in this emotional purgatory until Adam Schefter broke the news that Jerry Jones had finally fired Jason Garrett. It was short-lived (a week later, Jerry hired Mike McCarthy), but the mental clouds began to clear, and I was able to achieve happiness once again.

I had made a silent vow that night before the Covington vs. Usman fight, that if Usman KO’d Colby, I would forever be grateful and indebted to Usman and would pay my debt with unwavering support for the remainder of his career. I write here before you, a man who intends to fulfill that vow.

Sixteen fights, Usman is riding a sixteen-fight winning streak, dating back to his second professional bout back in 2013. He will be defending the welterweight title for the third time this weekend against Jiu-Jitsu world champion turned feared striker Gilbert Burns.

Usman is an NCAA champion wrestler who has developed into a very dangerous striker as well. It’s not flashy, Usman’s striking, and he doesn’t put combinations together fluidly as elite strikers do. But he’s excellent at managing distance and landing at the end of his long punches, using every inch of his reach. His punches are battering one to two-punch combo’s that inflict heavy damage whenever they land.

In the Covington fight, Colby had his moments and even hurt Usman a couple of times. But there was a noticeable difference in the effect that Usman’s strikes had on Colby. They broke down Colby over time to the point that Colby was getting sparked and wobbled after every shot Usman threw. Kamaru invested in attacking Colby’s body, deposits that matured quickly and eventually yielded large payoffs with strikes to the head.

No one has had an answer for Kamaru’s wrestling and clinch game. He maintains heavy top pressure by tripoding and keeping his chest high over his opponent’s head against the cage. This keeps the opponent stacked with little room to maneuver the hips and force scrambles or submission attempts. Tripoding/Stacking will be essential if he’s able to take Burns down; Gilbert has a world-class guard.

Usman will forego a takedown and opt for grinding the opponent against the cage, chipping away with nasty shoulder strikes, underrated foot stomps, and barrages of potshots. In other words, straight bully ish, administering wet willies, arm burns, and atomic wedgies. He maintains constant wrist control in the clinch, which Usman uses to achieve body locks, under hooks, and makes it difficult for his opponents to do the same to him and escape.

What’s unique about this matchup is that Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman are former training partners and good friends. On multiple occasions, Usman has cornered Burns, most recently as 2019. It’s rare two opponents fighting for a title have this much extensive knowledge of each other’s strengths and weaknesses and just as much hands-on experience competing against them.

Burns is a world-class, accomplished Jiu-Jitsu player who started his career with the UFC in 2014 in the lightweight division. He had ups and downs at lightweight but still went 8-3 in the division but is 4-0 since moving up to welterweight. His last loss was in 2018, a first-round KO loss to Dan Hooker. Since then, Burns has strung together six straight dubs, and a seventh would be life-changing.

Gilbert’s striking has been the difference in his last two bouts, a two-minute KO of Demian Maia and five-round domination of Tyron Woodley. He has power in both hands, but his overhand right can end any fight, and he has excellent round kicks to the legs and body. Although Burns throws mostly naked kicks (no set up behind punches), he can get away with it because they’re quick and heavy. If Gilbert touches you with a kick, whether you check it or block it, it’s going to cause damage. Leg kicks will be a big factor, and Burns needs to attack Usman’s legs aggressively for the duration. I’m not overly impressed with Gilbert’s striking; it’s mostly reliant on power. He moves in straight lines and always attacks straight up the middle, and isn’t great at fighting at range. Also, there are very few wrinkles in Burn’s striking, and he mostly throws short basic combinations.

Kamaru has never been taken down in the UFC, and maybe not even in his entire career. If Burns can find a way to get Usman to the ground, that could be the difference in the fight. Unless you’ve trained with Usman or were a fly on the wall in his gym, you haven’t seen Usman work from his back.

Burns doesn’t necessarily have to rely on traditional offensive means to get the fight to the mat. He may be willing to concede a takedown to Usman and work from his guard, using sweeps and submission attempts to force scrambles and end up on top. Gilbert has felt Usman’s power and top pressure and has a good idea of how effective he can be from his guard.

This is the epitome of a toss-up pick ‘em fight. The familiarity between the two fighters adds an unpredictable element to the matchup. I have no idea what to expect; likely, this will be a standup fight, a ground game wash, much like the Usman vs. Covington fight. I do feel confident that this fight will go the distance and likely won't end in a finish.

The first four cards of 2021 have all been bangers with a long list of upsets, and I feel lucky that I've kept my head above the .500 waters. However, I’m off to a 1-3 start in main event picks. Analytics would suggest betting the stimy check on whomever I don’t pick to win the main event. Kamaru Usman via decision.

Winner: Kamaru Usman | Method: Decision

Maycee Barber (+105 ) vs Alexa Grasso (-135)

Barber: DK: $7.9k, FD: $ | Grasso: DK:$8.3k, FD: $

Banger. Certified. This is a matchup of excellent strikers with drastically different styles. Alexa Grasso brings the traditional boxing style with kicks, and Maycee Barber brings an ambiguous freeform karate-kickboxing style. In a division struggling to provide legit contenders for the champion Valentina Shevchenko, the winner could shoot to the front of the line of contenders.

Alexa Grasso has tight, technical boxing with straight, crisp punches and subtle footwork that she uses to set up angles. Grasso is defensively responsible, always keeping her hands tight to her face while using her jab to manage range and set up short combinations. When Grasso mixes in kicks behind her boxing, she is very dangerous, but sometimes she forgets about them and becomes one-dimensional. Maycee Barber has excellent lateral and in-out movement, and Grasso will have to implement a heavy leg kicking game plan.

Barber is the more diverse but less technical striker. She freestyles like Biggie on the corner in Brooklyn, flowing without the limitations of pre-programmed combinations. She’s coming off a knee injury in her previous fight, a huge upset loss to Roxanne Modafferi, and the only loss of her career. Maycee’s striking is movement-based and allows her to manipulate the pocket to attack and slip and counter.

There are huge holes in Barber’s defense; she tends to pull (move her head straight back) too much as her main means of defense. This brings her chin straight up in the air and may allow her to evade one strike, but if the opponent pursuits with longer combos, she tends to get caught. Alexa Grasso, if you’re reading this: attack Barber with overhand and straight right hands whenever she is in the southpaw stance. Barber doesn’t defend well over her lead shoulder from the lefty stance and is highly susceptible to the cross from orthodox fighters like Grasso.

Barber is the Fantasy roster pick here; she has the biggest upside, having finished all four of her wins with the promotion. Grasso has zero point zero finishes in the UFC and is a moderate output striker but does have the potential to reach over one hundred significant strikes. Another complete and utter toss-up. Grasso has the potential to cause Maycee all kinds of problems, but I’m going to pick Barber to edge her out with more diverse attacks. Maycee Barber via decision.

Winner: Maycee Barber | Method: Decision

Ian Heinisch (+180) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (-230)

Heinisch: DK: $7.4k, FD: $ | Gastelum: DK: $8.8k, FD: $

The top of this card is solid, and you can add another banger to the list with this one right here. Since Kelvin Gastelum received a life-altering beating at the hands of the champ, Israel Adesanya, in 2019, he hasn’t been the same. He was highly competitive in that fight and gave Adesanya his toughest test, but he sustained a ton of damage, and the fight ended with him barely hanging on to consciousness. There are many examples of fighters who aren’t the same after sustaining damage like Gastelum did that night; Rory McDonald and Robbie Lawler come to mind. For Gastelum, the Adesanya fight also began a three-fight losing streak.

Gastelum’s problem is that he’s not fundamentally disciplined enough to wear the belt because if he were, he’d be competing at welterweight. It sounds harsh, but Gastelum had issues making the one hundred seventy-pound limit and was forced up to middleweight, where he always has to make up for huge size disadvantages. His quickness has always helped him close the size gap, and he’s had big wins at middleweight, but I think it also allows him to be less disciplined than he’s willing to be at welterweight.

Gastelum will be at another decided size disadvantage against Ian Heinish. Heinisch is a huge power puncher with solid wrestling who is 4-2 in the UFC. His gas tank is a little suspect, but he carries his KO power until the final bell. He moves well laterally, uses leg kicks and front kicks to the body, and has a heavy overhand right.

The key for Ian will be takedowns; he was able to take down the very tough Omari Akhmedov multiple times, and a takedown here and there could be the difference in deciding close rounds. Kelvin made a name and won the Ultimate Fighter with his superior wrestling, but he has become more striking centric and often forgets his wrestling.

Ian Heinisch opened as the (+199) dog, and you may be looking at the Twenty-Twen-Twen upset sleeper. Heinisch’s cardio worries me; he slows drastically late in fights, but Gastelum sometimes no-call/no-show's for fights altogether, not even bothering to have his mammy call in sick for him. Both fighters are moderate output strikers and not big finishers. Ian’s lower-tier price tag makes him a good alternative with similar numbers to Gastelum. Give me Heinisch via decision.

Winner: Ian Heinisch | Method: Decision

Maki Pitolo (+140 ) vs Julian Marquez (-170)

Pitolo: DK: $7.5k, FD: $ | Marquez: DK: $8.7k, FD:

This fight has a cloud of drowsiness surrounding it like someone’s going to be sleeping during it. I recommend both fighters clear their browser histories before they step into the cage. Maki Pitolo’s back is against the wall after dropping three of four UFC bouts, including his last two in a row.

Maki won’t impress you with technique or athletic ability, but he throws hard and has the power to end any fight. I think Pitolo is undersized for middleweight like Gastelum and gives up too much in size and reach. Pitolo’s major malfunction, he gets hit too much. He often gets lazy exiting the pocket and gets caught with his head up after finishing an attack.

While Pitolo is strictly a boxer, Marquez is a heavy-handed/footed southpaw kickboxer with a far more diverse attack. Marquez only offers combos, no a la carte, and there are only three items on the menu, overhands, hooks, and heavy kicks. The Yelp reviews rave about Marquez’s ability to hide massive kicks behind his punches and his house special left hand.

Julian lacks a traditional jab and isn’t great at fighting on the outside, and relies on combinations to close the distance. This dude is always in ugly fights, and he’s a dog, the embodiment of a DMX adlib. The unknown variable for Marquez is that he hasn’t fought in close to three years. His last fight was a close split decision loss to the first Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleeper of 2021, Alessio di Chirico.

Marquez has a head kick KO win over the monster Phil Hawes and a submission win over a common opponent, Darren Stewart, and I like his chances to score a finish against Pitolo. Julian Marquez, via TKO, round two.

Winner: Julian Marquez | Method: TKO Rd.2

Jim Miller (+205 ) vs Bobby "King" Green (-265)

Miller: DK: $7.3k, FD: $ | Green: DK: $8.9k, FD: $

I love Bobby Green; he’s easily one of my favorite active fighters. His style is impetuous, his defense is impregnable, and he’s just ferocious. He strikes naturally from both stances and can flow back and forth mid-exchange. There’s no such thing as a boring Bobby Green fight, and win or lose, he goes out on his shield. He tends to get into firefights, and the only knock against him is sometimes he gets outworked and loses close rounds. Green is coming off being held up at gunpoint by the judges against Thiago Moises back on Holloween.

Jim Miller is the O’est G of all the OG’s in the UFC, and with this fight, he'll have a record thirty-seven UFC bouts dating back to UFC 89 in 2008. Miller has eighteen submission wins, including a win last June against the tough Roosevelt Roberts. Miller mounted Roberts's arm on his wall after tapping Roberts with an armbar early in the first round.

Miller remains an outstanding grappler with a dangerous guard, but his standup has become a liability over the years. His hand speed and reactions have slowed, making it dangerous for him to get caught in a firefight where he once used to thrive. Every Bobby Green scrap is a firefight.

Miller not only has to get Green down but hold him down and record top control time, and if he does, he has a shot at stealing a decision. But Green has only been finished once since 2013, and that was a KO loss to the Jr. Lightweight GOAT, Dustin Poirier. For Bobby Green to win, he needs to find and maintain a consistent pace and output. He can’t afford to go long stretches without mounting any offense and only throwing occasional single shots. Combinations and pressure are Green's keys to victory. Bobby Green via decision.

Winner: Bobby Green| Method: Decision

Prelims

Highlighted Matchups

Belal Muhammad (-400 ) vs. Diego Lima (+300)

Muhammad: DK: $9.2k, FD: $ | Lima: DK: $7k, FD: $  

This matchup features two high-level veterans and should be a good display of technical skills. Belal Muhammad is a highly slept on welterweight with an 8-3 UFC record. He mixes strong wrestling and top control with technical wrestler striking and has only lost to top competition, Geoff Neal, Vicente Luque, and Alan Jouban.

Dhiego Lima is the brother of former long-standing Bellator Champion Douglas Lima. He made it to the Ultimate Fighter Finals in 2017 but lost to my fellow Poway High School alumni Jesse Taylor. Lima has a solid all-around game and can compete with high-level competition anywhere the fight goes. He’s good at a lot of things but not great at anything.

Muhammad isn’t a finisher, but Lima has had problems with wrestlers over his career, and I think Muhammad can work his way into a rare finish. Belal Muhammad via Rea-Naked choke, round three.

Winner: Belal Muhammad | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Andre Ewell (+125 ) vs. Chris Gutierrez (-155 )

Ewell: DK: TBD, FD: TBD | Gutierrez: DK: TBD, FD: TBD

The bad news: the rematch between Pedro Munhoz and Jimmie Rivera has been canceled the week of the bout for the second time. A late replacement matchup between Andre Ewell and Chris Guitierrez has subsequently been added. The good news: this is a banger.

This fight may have McGregor vs. Poirier feels, as the youngsters say. Leg kicks; you got to have a plan for them. Check them, get out of the way of them, catch them (not always recommended), counter them with strikes or takedowns; anything but absorb them without offering any consequences. Gutierrez amputates legs like a Civil War surgeon. He has two leg kick TKO victories on his record, including one against a highly touted prospect, Jimmy Flick. Timur Valiev had an impressive victory last week and is considered a potential title contender at 17-2. One of those L’s was to Chris Gutierrez outside of the UFC.

The game plan for Gutierrez should be to work from the bottom up. Take out Ewell’s legs and slow down his lateral movement and ability to maneuver in and out of the pocket. Ewell has a wide base like Conor McGregor and carries a lot of weight on the lead leg. Chris has to neutralize Ewell’s hand speed and more dynamic boxing with well-timed calf/thigh kicks. Marlon Vera destroyed Ewell with body kicks, and Gutierrez should look to work them into his game plan as feints to the legs and vice versa.

All the measurables favor Andre Ewell, height, reach, speed, athletic ability; it all favors Ewell. But if he doesn’t defend the leg kicks, none of it will matter. He has to stay light on his feet, constant movement with feints, and pick his spots to engage wisely. Ewell may look to counter the kicks with a counter right hand into a knee tap takedown. If he can stay on the outside and pepper Gutierrez with jabs and one-twos, he may be able to record his first finish in six UFC bouts.

Ewell has a doppelganger that takes his place between the second and third rounds, a reversed superimposed image of himself that possesses half the skills as the original Andre Ewell. He gasses heavy and, at times, looks like a completely different fighter from the one who stepped into the cage ten minutes earlier.

Fantasy wise, Ewell is the pick. Not only is he a surprising underdog in this fight, but also he’s a much higher output striker even with cardio issues. There is definitely value in Gutierrez. He’s a moderate striker, but he gives you a better chance at a finish. I think this will go the distance. Gutierrez will have to come back from an early deficit but will eek out the victory. Chris Gutierrez via decision.

Winner: Chris Gutierrez | Method: Decision

Gabriel Green (-135 ) vs. Philip Rowe (+105)

Green: DK: $8k, FD: $ | Rowe: DK: $8.2k, FD: $

I gotta show the early prelims some love. This right here is an undercover banger. As it stands right now, this will be the second fight of the night; don’t miss it. Both these fighters are aggressive and both average over eight significant strikes landed per minute. Make sure to have one of them on your roster.

In 2019, Rowe competed on the Contenders series and landed eighty-four strikes in just over two rounds of work. He’s long, throws combinations, and has good hand speed, and he has a one hundred percent finishing rate with seven professional wins.

Gabriel Green lost a close decision in his debut last May against the very tough Daniel Rodriguez. He will have to cover a lot of ground to close the distance against Rowe, being the shorter fighter, and he’ll attempt to do that behind heavy round punches and kicks. With six submission wins in nine professional victories, Green’s advantage may be on the ground. Gabriel will need to copy and paste Clay Guida’s game plan from his bout last weekend against Michael Johnson, heavy pressure, combinations, and constant takedown attempts.

I’m taking Phillip Rowe via TKO, round two. What are you waiting for? Put it on wax.

Winner: Philip Rowe | Method: TKO Rd.2

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

No beating around the bush, Gilbert Burns is the biggest Pick 'Em sleeper on the card. Oddsmakers are wilding' on this one, howling at the moon. At (-275), Usman is way overvalued; the gap between these two is not that large if there is even a gap. I couldn't slap Jackson's face down on the table fast enough on this one. Honorable mentions go to Ian Heinisch and Andre Ewell. This card has a lot of potential upsets.

Pick 'Em

Rodolfo Vieira (-400 ) vs. Anthony Hernandez (+300 )

Winner: Rodolfo Vieira

 Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Belal Muhammad (-400 ) vs. Diego Lima (+300)

Winner: Belal Muhammad

 Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Polyana Viana (+125 ) vs. Mallory Martin (-155 )

Winner: Mallory Martin

 Method: Decision

Andre Ewell (+125) vs. Chris Gutierrez (-155)

    Winner: Chris Gutierrez

 Method: Decision

Ricky Simon (-260) vs. Brian Kelleher (+200)

    Winner: Ricky Simon

 Method: Decision

Gabriel Green (-135) vs. Philip Rowe (+105)

    Winner: Philip Rowe

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Gillian Robertson (+110) vs. Miranda Maverick (-140)

    Winner: Miranda Maverick

 Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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