We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Main Card

Israel Adesanya (-250 ) vs. Jan Blachowicz (+190)

Stylebender: DK: $9.2k | Blachowicz: DK: $7k

Of all the incorrect picks I've made throughout the past issues of the Weekly Knockout, picking Paulo Costa to beat Israel Adesanya was the most erroneous, egregious, and embarrassing, the three E's.  Costa had months to draw up a game plan, yet he entered the cage with macaroni glued on purple construction paper.  Most of Costa’s offense was pre-fight, in the form of gum bumping, perpetrating, and half stepping.  When it came time to walk the walk, well, you have to crawl before you can do that, and Paulo Costa had yet to master tummy time.  

Costa’s game plan was to shake his head and dismiss every strike Adesanya landed as if it would sway us to believe it was our own eyes deceiving us.  The ass whooping we were witnessing Costa catch was a figment of our imaginations, a throwaway episode of Black Mirror.  It was a familiar game plan, a game plan implemented by politicians whenever hit with allegations of corruption, incompetence, and dishonesty.  But like professional window shoppers, we didn’t buy it.  No soliciting; try next door, Paulo.       

I bet you think this newsletter is about you, don’t you, don’t you?  Well, not anymore.  UFC 259 will feature one of the most perplexing matchups in a title fight main event I can remember off the top of the dome.  Israel Adesanya vs. Jan Blachowicz is a matchup that came out of nowhere, and I have no idea what to expect.  However, I do know one thing; Adesanya’s timing isn’t only masterful inside the cage.  Let's be really real; Stylebender is only moving up to light heavyweight now because Jan Blachowicz is the champ.  A few months ago, when Bones Jones still held the belt, Adesanya said he wasn’t ready to move up in weight.  That tells you what he thinks of Jan.   

Let’s shove that aside.  This is going to be a banger, a matchup of clashing standup styles.  The more athletic, technical, diverse, faster, longer, and taller striker is Israel Adesanya.  The one-punch power advantage will go to Jan Blachowicz.  While Adesanya will hold a two-inch height and reach advantage against Blachowicz, the question is, how will Adesanya’s overall size and strength translate to a weight class separated from the middleweight division by twenty pounds?

If I were to oversimplify Adesanya’s technical prowess and express what sets him apart from every other striker in the UFC in two words, I would say distance management.  Adesanya is a master manipulator with passive-aggressive tendencies outside the pocket.  He uses subtle footwork to create slight angles and cover short distances, inducing opponents to attack prematurely or lulling them into passivity and mounting attacks of his own.  

Stylebender’s unique physical attributes allow him to employ short-range strikes from long distances, such as leg and body kicks.  Traditional leg kicks above the knee are a short-range strike, but Adesanya can land them and remain out of the opponent’s range and ability to counter.  Mix in long-range calf kicks and stabbing teep and crescent kicks to the body, and it’s like navigating through a field of landmines just to get close enough to throw a single strike.

The main threat to Blachowicz will be Adesanya’s counters and ability to strike while moving backward.  Israel will switch stances while pivoting straight back and throwing a lead hook that a blink before was a power cross.  He will also slip back out of the pocket and throw power shots from either stance.  Adesanya isn’t a volume striker and is rather judicious and precise with his attacks, but his hand accuracy is a sniper in the bell tower level, especially his jab.  He makes every strike count.

Enquiring minds want to know, can Blachowicz win this fight.  Yes.  And opening as the (+200) underdog, he’s getting close to my sleeper range.  Jan has had a rags-to-riches UFC career.  After a 2-4 start in the promotion, Blachowicz was on the verge of being cut.  Since 2017, Jan is 8-1 and is currently on a four-fight winning streak.  So what changed? 

Likely his mental game changed.  The rare transition from timid and playing it safe to not giving a bleep and not just saying it like it's an incantation you're trying to speak into existence.  He just goes for it now.   Blachowicz went from conservative Marty Ball (Marty Schottenheimer) to air it out, no-risk-it-no-biscuit Bruce Arians seemingly overnight.

Check out this list of Blachowicz dubs since 2017: Corey Anderson, Jacare, Luke Rockhold, Nikita Krylov, Jimi Manuwa, Jared Cannonier, Ilir Latifi, and Dominick Reyes.  His lone loss in the last four years was to Thiago Santos, a third-round TKO.  He’s big for the division, long, durable, and crafty enough to make up for disadvantages in speed and athleticism.  Blachowicz has finished seventeen of his twenty-seven career wins, with eight TKO/KO’s and noine submissions.

Against Adesanya, Jan has to be aggressive with constant forward pressure without walking into Adesanya counters.  He’s going to have to mix it up a lot more to accomplish that; Blachowicz tends to blitz with generic, repetitive left-right combos while charging his opponent in a straight line.  Jan almost always follows a lead cross with a left hook, and his feet and shoulders tend to square up as he blitzes forward.  That’s where Jan has to be careful not to lead with his head right into a Stylebender counter.  

Jan has a trick up his sleeve.  One of his bread and butter strikes is the lead and power uppercuts.  He sandwiches them, hiding them between three to four-punch combos, and they’re usually a precursor to a fight-ending sequence.  Adesanya will also have to avoid moving straight back and continually matador Jan’s forward pressure with lateral movement.  

The final key to this matchup, calf kicks.  In the last two to three years, the calf kick has revolutionized the sport.  It’s like the introduction of the three-point shot or two-point conversion, a game-changer.  Every card features fights decided by one fighter’s implementation of the technique.  The only effective way to defend them is to get the leg completely out of the way or deter the opponent from throwing them in the first place by countering them with takedown attempts or heavy punches in return.  If Jan doesn’t plan for Adesanya’s long-range calf kicks, he’ll be compromised early in the fight.

I’ll tell you what I’m not going to do, pick Jan Blachowicz.  To quote the incomparable Cypress Hill, “I ain’t going out like that.”  My only trepidation is Adesanya’s size at 205 lbs.  Jan is a large light heavyweight, and his power surprises everyone he fights.  The likelihood the fight ends prematurely is high, and a five-round decision seems like the long shot.  And new… Israel Adesanya via TKO, round three.

Winner: Israel Adesanya | Method: TKO Rd.3

Megan Anderson (+650 ) vs Amanda Nunes (-1100)

Anderson: DK: $6.6k | Nunes: DK:$9.6k

Unlike on the men’s side, the women’s GOAT conversation isn’t one.  There’s no difference of opinion, alternative solution, or conspiracy to the contrary.  It’s Amanda Nunes.  She’s beaten every woman who has ever held the belt at bantamweight and featherweight, as well as all the previous GOAT nominees, Cyborg, Ronda Rousey, Holly Holm, and Valentina Shevchenko (twice).   The only name not on her resume is Gina Carano.  Carano was the legit first women’s superstar and first to draw attention to women’s MMA.

If Amanda decides to vacate her bantamweight title and fight exclusively at featherweight for the remainder of her career, she won’t lose again.  The women’s featherweight division doesn’t even have kiddie pool depth; it’s more like the little pool at the end of a Slip ‘N Slide.  A puddle.  For Nunes, the bantamweight division doesn’t offer much more competition, but the matchup possibilities are at least a little more fruitful.

The Lioness is the perfect combination of aggression, technique, athleticism, speed, and power.  No woman on earth can match her physical attributes in a cage.  More importantly, Nunes doesn’t fight with ego, and her fight IQ is genius-level, she never lets her pride call the shots.  She won’t insist on sustaining a standup battle she’s losing and won’t hesitate to work her wrestling.  Against Germaine de Randamie, an elite striker, Nunes was a step behind in the standup, so she dominated the fight with takedowns and top control.  Against Cyborg, she used superior hand speed and precise distance management to pick Cyborg apart with power shots.

One last thing on Nunes, if she played in the MLB, she’d be an ambidextrous pitcher, switching from left-handed to right-handed deliveries mid-at-bat.  The way she throws hooks and overhands with both hands is like throwing a baseball, and they can’t be defended with traditional hand guards because the punches find their way around them.

On to Megan Anderson.  She’s tall.  And Still… Amanda Nunes via TKO, round two.

Winner: Amanda Nunes | Method: TKO Rd.1

Aljamain Sterling (-110) vs. Petr Yan (-120)

Aljo: DK: $7.8k | Yan: DK: $8.4k

Banger.  Your TomTom won’t provide an alternative route around it.  This will be Petr Yan’s first title defense as the Bantamweight Champion after defeating Jose Aldo to win the vacant strap last year.  Henry Cejudo, who elected to retire from the sport, vacated the belt, stating he didn’t see any viable competition to motivate him to keep fighting.  I disagree; the bantamweight division is on and poppin’ more so than ever and is one of the deepest in the UFC.  Aljamain Sterling, Cory Sandhagen, T.J, Dillashaw (returning), Rob Font, Pedro Munhoz, and if he beats Dominick Cruz, Casey Kenney is a problem.  There are plenty of wild matchups for Cejudo, and that doesn’t include fighters who can drop from featherweight.  I expect Cejudo to return at some point.

Petr Yan is a technical, precise boxer.  He’ll pretty much only give you one look, and at a glance, it appears to be fairly vanilla, but don’t let it fool you.  There isn’t much movement, and he remains very upright and flatfooted, relying mostly on a high hand guard that never leaves his face as his means of defense.  But Yan’s hands are quick and sharp, and he uses his jab like a professional boxer.  

Yan will give many different looks with his jab.  He changes levels from targeting the head to the chest and the stomach.  After a barrage of jabs, Yan will come over the top of them with his right hand.  That’s called “setting it up.”  Petr is good at changing tempos; there’s a difference between throwing a one-two combination and throwing a jab and a cross.  The difference is the cadence in which you throw them.  Yan can string short combos together or use one-punch techniques in quick succession.

In his title fight with Jose Aldo, Yan was destroyed by leg kicks, above the knee and calf kicks.  Petr’s stance makes it difficult for him to get out of the way or check kicks.  His lead leg points slightly inward, making it near impossible to lift it in time to defend.  Aldo won rounds two and three and looked like he was about to mess around and pull a Tiger Woods and win a Major late in his career.  But Yan took over in the fourth with stinging combinations and increased pace.

Aljamain Sterling’s style is unlike anything you can prepare for or have experienced before actually stepping in the cage with him.  Aljo’s standup reminds me of Clay Guida’s, a hunched-over, caveman-like stance with constant movement and forward pressure.  He’s Santa’s Little Helper out the gate, one hundred miles an hour with limbs flying all over the place.  What he lacks in technique, which is a lot, he makes up for with volume and pace.

Aljo’s star shines brightest on the mat.  He’s a world-class grappler, competing in high-level Jiu-Jitsu competitions outside of the Octagon.  Cory Sandhagen, who just KO’d Frankie Edgar quicker than my Pop-Tart could burn, was absolutely man-handled, baby boy’d, by Aljo.  Sterling took Sandhagen’s back against the cage in the opening minute and immediately sank in a Rear-Naked Choke.

But, Pedro Munhoz gave Sterling all he could handle previous to the Sandhagen fight.  Munhoz hurt Sterling with snap kicks to the body and, of course, calf kicks.  Petr Yan and Aljo will both want to implement leg kicks into their game plans.  For Aljo, he’ll want to test Yan’s takedown defense and ground game early and often, but if he can’t relocate the fight, Aljo can pose problems for Yan on the feet.

I think both of these guys are excellent Fantasy options.  Flip a coin.  This fight will likely go the distance and allow for big Fantasy numbers.  Vegas has the fight basically as a pick ‘em, even.  Ok, put it on wax.  And Still… Petr Yan via decision.

Winner: Petr Yan | Method: Decision

Drew Dober (+270 ) vs Islam Makhachev (-360)

Dober: DK: $6.8k |Makhachev: DK: $9.4k

Islam Makhachev is Khabib’s heir apparent.  It is known around Khabib's camp that the only reason Makhachev isn’t already the champion at lightweight is that he’s been waiting patiently for Khabib to decide he’s tired of being the champ.  Now that Khabib has retired, Islam is free to become the champ.  He was scheduled to fight Rafael Dos Anjos late last year in the main event but had to drop the fight.  No offense to Mr. Dober, but this fight is much less dangerous for Makhachev than the Dos Anjos fight would have been.  In fact, I was going to pick Dos Anjos to win that fight.

Makhachev's major problem is his lack of output, lack of output on the feet, and on the mat from the top position.  His wrestling is second to none, but he relies mostly on position grappling rather than mixing in fight-ending ground and pound.  On the feet, Makhachev has the skills to survive with anyone.  He’s a southpaw with heavy power in his dominant side strikes, but he just doesn’t use them enough.  My man will go on a basketball-like scoring drought without throwing a strike for minutes at a time.  Islam wins fights with superior takedowns and clock management from the top.  That’s a tough style to beat, conservative and stifling at the same time.           

Drew Dober, good luck, homie.  Dober will provide an interesting southpaw vs. southpaw matchup on the feet for Makhachev, and the striking stats heavily favor Dober.  He averages over four and a half significant strikes landed per minute compared to Makhachev’s two.  BUT, there’s a big but.  Islam averages over three and a half takedowns per fight compared to Dober’s almost zero.  Drew has to keep this standing to have a chance to pull off the massive upset.

The game plan for Dober is kind of an oxymoron, a catch-22; be aggressive and risk getting taken down or be taken down anyways from not being aggressive.  I prefer going down swinging.  Take the center of the Octagon and stay there, and avoid the cage at all costs.  Aim punches at the chest and attack consistently with up-the-middle strikes like knees, uppercuts, and snap kicks.  That’s the game plan for Dober.  Punches to the chest and body make it more difficult for a wrestler to duck under and shoot singles and doubles.

I can’t see either fighter notching solid Fantasy numbers.  Dober will spend too much time on his back and defending takedowns against the cage, and although Makhachev can rack up control time, that’s not going to account for much without accumulating punch stats.  Islam Makhachev via decision.

Winner: Islam Mackhachev | Method: Decision

Thiago Santos (+130 ) vs Aleksandar Rakic (-160)

Santos: DK: $7.6k | Rakic: DK: $8.6k

Banger.  Another one.  This is a crazy matchup of two aggressive power strikers with hair triggers.  Thiago Santos was on a championship path until the judges ran his pockets against Bones Jones, and Aleksandar Rakic is currently on a championship path.  With the division potentially getting a complete makeover after the main event, the winner could be in line behind Glover Teixeira for a title shot.

Aleksandar Rakic hurts people.  He lost his first Pro fight and then reeled off twelve straight wins, before losing a close split decision to Volkan Oezdemir in 2019.  In that fight, Rakic fought almost three rounds with the alien baby from Total Recall growing out of his shin after an Oezdemir calf kick.  

When Rakic can stay on the outside and throw bombs, he’s hard to beat.  He has heavy kicks to the legs, body, and head.  He has an excellent single-leg takedown in his back pocket that he uses to mix things up.  And if he gets top position, his ground and pound is devastating.  He’s vulnerable when exchanging in the pocket, as he has long punches that he throws from his waist without moving his head off the centerline.

Santos showed major holes in his ground game from his back against Glover, and if Rakic can score takedowns, it will be another quick night for Santos. 

Santos is a power striker with a heart as big as the hammer tatted on his chest.  He’s nuclear-aggressive and has wide, round punches and powerful kicks that he throws in combination.  Thiago used calf kicks to slow down Jon Jones's pressure early in their title fight.  He also used low kicks to open up opportunities for his awkward hooks to land in short two-punch bursts.  Santos can fight from both stances, and when he decides to blitz, you better dip; take a lap around the cage until he simmers down.  Spinning and flying attacks are in play for Santos, and against Bone Jones, he showed the ability to fight technically and tactically.  He needs that same approach against Rakic, patient.

Santos will want to stay on the outside and beat up Rakic’s legs with the low calf kick, choosing his openings wisely and timing his wild blitzes accordingly.  He needs to pressure Rakic while not over pursuing and running into takedowns.  If Santos does find himself on his back, he needs to force scrambles quickly before Rakic can establish position.

Again, flip a coin and have one of these guys on your roster.  The potential for a finish is high for both fighters, but I’d give the slight edge to Rakic.  He can dictate where the fight takes place.  Aleksandar Rakic via TKO, round three.

Winner: Aleksandar Rakic | Method: TKO Rd.3

Prelims

Highlighted Matchup

Casey "They Killed" Kenney (-135) vs. Dominick Cruz (+105)

Kenney: DK: $8.1k | Cruz: DK: $8.1k  

Way, way back in the day, 2006, I trained at City Boxing in San Diego, CA.  At the time, one of the guys at the gym who I sparred with regularly was training for a big fight in the local promotion, Total Combat.  He was fighting a guy named Dominick Cruz.  We searched for videos and pictures of this, Dominick Cruz, and laughed like Charlie Murphy and his homies when Prince and his crew came out for the pick-up game wearing the clothes they had on at the club.  This dude had a bowl cut.  No way our homie wasn’t going to walk through the little dweeb we saw on Sherdog.  

Well, our guy got smoked in the first round via Rear-Naked Choke.  I was there and watched this cornflake completely obliterate a guy who completely obliterated me in training every day.  Dom danced around and landed wild punches and then picked the homie up and tossed him around the ring before showing mercy and latching on to his neck.  I’ve been Dominick Cruz’s biggest fan ever since.

No one in the history of the sport moves like Dominick.  T.J. Dillashaw jacked Dominick’s whole style, Carlos Mencia’d him and owes his entire career to Dom.  He mixes classic boxing movements like Wille Pep switch steps and the Muhammad Ali shuffle and crouch. Dom’s style is predicated on creating angles, and not only with his footwork but also the arm angles from which he strikes.  Cruz will duck down and wing overhands and kicks out of nowhere, and just when you think you got a beat on him and try to counter, he’s gone.  

Dominick Cruz would have—and maybe he still will—gone down as one of the GOATS if it weren’t for injuries.  Cruz’s injury history can rival any athlete in professional sports.  He’s coming off a tough loss to Henry Cejudo, a fight that ended prematurely when Dom seemed to be finding success after a rough first round.  Cejudo attacked Dom’s legs early and often and really hampered Dom’s movement.  If he hasn’t found an answer for defending leg/calf kicks, it’s going to be another rough night for Dom.

Casey Kenney is a bantamweight Mirko Cro Cop.  Cro Cop famously said, “Right leg, hospital.  Left leg, cemetery.”  For Kenney, it's: Right leg, Minute Clinic.  Left leg, ashes on a beach.  He devastates opponents with left-round kicks, throwing them equal opportunity to the head, body, and legs.  Kenney will throw left kicks over and over and over and… you get the point.  

Combine his kicking game with tight, crisp boxing, and Casey Kenney is a nightmare matchup for my man, Dom.  This is a ballsy fight for Dom to take; he absolutely needs to defend or have a plan for Kenney’s calf kicks.  I think both fighters will score quality Fantasy numbers, and Dom may be able to—and will have to—score a takedown here and there.  Dom is especially slick with knee tap takedowns after catching low kicks. 

Okay, on wax… Nah, not this time.  This is a historical moment for the Weekly Knockout.  I can’t bring myself to make a pick on this one.  I can’t do it, but feel free to read between the lines.

Standout Fighters

Kyler Phillips (+120 ) DK: $7.4k

Kyler Phillips is like a mini, more technical Thiago Santos, wild, he howls at the moon.  Phillips is unpredictable and aggressive on the feet, regularly using spinning and flying attacks in combination with smooth, loose boxing.  He has the ground game to match, slick grappling with heavy ground and pound.  Kyler can beat you wherever the fight goes and has the added advantage of deciding where that is.  Yadong Song will be Phillips’s opponent this Saturday night and trust me, you don’t want to miss this one.  Song is an excellent all-around fighter in his own right, and comes from the legendary Team Alpha Male camp.

Sean Brady (-225 ) DK: $9.3k

At 13-0, Sean Brady is a legit welterweight prospect.  He’s a big power striker with heavy kicks, in particular, leg kicks. Brady is a Fantasy scoring juggernaut, averaging well over one hundred Fantasy points in his first three UFC bouts.  Brady has excellent wrestling and top control, the threat of which makes his standup even more dangerous.  

Brady will be matched against Jake Mathews, who is another excellent wrestler.  Mathews's standup, however, is slow and lumbering.  It consists of an overhand right and, and that’s it.  When matching up two excellent wrestlers/grapplers, a stalemate is often perceptively acknowledged between the two and usually results in an exclusive standup contest, and Brady has the advantage.

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

Taco Bell was my fight night meal last weekend, and I could have used the twenty spot I dropped on Jairzinho Rozenstruik for the post-game clean-up efforts. Depending on where you look, you can find Jan Blachowicz around (+200); that's my likely move. I think he has more than just a puncher's chance to win. At (+130), there's also value on Thiago Santos, who only needs one wild exchange to turn the tide and end any fight. He's also the last person to beat Jan Blachowicz, a third-round TKO.

Pick 'Em

Song Yadong (-150 ) vs. Kyler Phillips (+120 )

            Winner: Kyler Phillips

 Method: Decision

Joseph Benavidez (+110 ) vs. Askar Askarov (-140 )

            Winner: Askar Askarov

 Method: Decision

Rogerio Bontorin (+115 ) vs. Kai Kara-France (-145 )

Winner: Kai Kara-France

 Method: Decision

Tim Elliot (+100) vs. Jordan Espinosa (-130)

    Winner: Tim Elliot

 Method: Guillotine Choke Rd.2

Kennedy Nzechukwu (+195 ) vs. Carlos Ulberg (-250 )

    Winner: Kennedy Nzechukwu

 Method: Decision

Sean Brady (-225) vs. Jake Mathews (+175)

    Winner: Sean Brady

 Method: Decision

Livinha Souza (+185) vs. Amanda Lemos (-235)

    Winner: Amanda Lemos

 Method: Decision

Uros Medic (-170) vs. Aalon Cruz (+140)

    Winner: Uris Medic

 Method: TKO Rd.3

Mario Bautista (-250) vs. Trevin Jones (+195)

    Winner: Mario Bautista

 Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves. 

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy. 

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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