We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

This card is falling apart as I write this. We're down to just ten fights. By Saturday night this could end up being a six to seven fight PPV.

Francis Ngannou (-135 ) vs. Stipe Miocic (+105)

Ngannou: DK: $8.4k | Miocic: DK: $7.8k

Flat Earth, the magic bullet, and the Roswell UFO crash are all Hall of Fame conspiracy theories. With the expenditure of a few extra blasting caps, we could complete a Mount Rushmore memorial by adding the moon landing. Some moon landing conspiracy theorists say our desperation to beat China to the cratered rock motivated the faking of the famous footage in a Hollywood backlot studio. Others believe we did make it to the moon in 1969, but the film didn’t survive the reentry into the atmosphere, so NASA had to recreate the event. There’s also the fact that we haven’t been back since 1972. That was until a Francis Ngannou uppercut landed Alistair Overeem within one putt of Neil Armstrong’s famous motionless flag like a Phil Mickelson chip from the rough. The Reem became the real-life Matt Damon in the movie The Martian, stranded until Ngannou sent Jairzinho Rozenstruik on a successful rescue mission in May of 2020.

Over the course of his career, Francis Ngannou has sent into orbit eleven total probes, satellites, and extraterrestrial diplomatic hopefuls. A successful launch of Stipe Miocic this weekend would not only land Francis the moniker “Champ,” but it would also place his name among the great Apollo’s, as in lunar missions, not Creed.

This will be the second attempted launch of Stipe Miocic, the first coming in 2018 that ended in a tragedy similar to the Challenger. In life, it's important to sift through the debris of a disaster and piece together the fragments of lessons learned in an attempt to reconstruct an overall picture of what went wrong and provide alternate avenues to circumvent similar mistakes in the future. Let's examine the anatomy of the first failure to launch.

Although it went into the record books as a five-round unanimous decision, the first fight between Francis Ngannou and Stipe Miocic was over after the first round. It was as eventful a first-round as you can get; both fighters visibly hurt the other in the closing seconds. For Stipe, he pulled off the near-impossible by surviving the first minute, which is the peak of Ngannou’s effectiveness as a striker. It’s the longest sixty seconds in sports.

Curiously, Ngannou came out to open the fight as a southpaw. It may have been an attempt to throw Stipe off, a strategy to bring his nuclear right hand closer to Stipe’s chin, or simply gamesmanship. It didn’t change Ngannou’s style at all; he came out swinging fists like chain maces but was unable to land a flush life-changer in the opening seconds as he has done in all of his last four contests. Stipe was able to change levels and force Ngannou against the cage by threatening with single-leg attempts.

When pressured against the cage, Miocic used excellent head movement to avoid Ngannou’s predictable left-right, left-right hooks and circle out of danger. Although Stipe’s head movement was effective, it became repetitive and predictable during an early flurry. Francis was able to time Miocic and land a massive uppercut against the cage that had ended almost every Ngannou fight before. Stipe then punched the clock and went to work with his jab and overhand right. Stipe found success with a pull-counter right hand over the top of Ngannou’s increasingly slower punches as the round went on.

In the middle of the round, Stipe secured a double leg takedown but was unable to maintain top control, and Ngannou showed some promise being able to get back to his feet. By the closing minute of the first, Ngannou was the cable TV subscriber version of himself and in desperate need of a DirecTV upgrade. Stipe landed an overhand right late in the round that rocked Ngannou, and for a brief moment, it looked like he was in serious trouble. But all it takes is one shot from Ngannou, and he landed it as Stipe pursued the finish and walked right into a wild hook. Stipe then looked briefly like the fighter suddenly on the verge of being KO’d, but he was able to instinctively change levels and secure a desperate double leg takedown and survive to the bell.

The second round revealed a Francis Ngannou who couldn’t do much of anything other than stand in place flatfooted, throwing occasional arm punches. Miocic opened up and landed multiple right hands over Ngannou’s lead shoulder. Stipe then timed a perfect double leg and ran Ngannou across the Octagon and finished it against the cage. That takedown marked the end of the fight. On his back, Ngannou looked like he was getting his diaper changed on a Koala Station. Francis couldn’t get back to his feet, and Stipe spent much of the remainder holding him against the cage and landing just enough peppering shots to keep the ref at bay and refrain from standing the fight back up.

In the third, Ngannou landed the only punch he threw from the second round until the closing minute of the fifth round. But that one punch rocked Stipe. An overhand right stumbled Stipe after he was lulled into a false sense of security by Ngannou’s lack of output. Stipe’s output waned dramatically as well beyond the second round, and at times it took all he had just to hold Ngannou down for long stretches. But in the end, Stipe pitched a complete game shutout and dominated the scariest man on earth. The fight had a Predator vs. Arnold Schwarzenegger in the jungle type of feel to it. Stipe was able to defeat the Predator without the aid of advanced technological weaponry and instead prevailed, relying solely on wits and good ol’ fashion wrastlin’.

The only tweek I would make to Stipe’s original game plan is to come out shooting double legs immediately. The opening exchanges are Ngannou’s best chances to win the fight, and if Stipe can take some steam off his punches early by making Ngannou defend takedowns, he should be able to dominate once again, maybe even finish Ngannou this time. When the fight is standing, Miocic needs to draw out Ngannou’s wild punches with feints and jabs, and use the pull-counters to open up level changes. Stipe can KO Francis on the feet, I just don’t think he wants/needs to take that risk though.

For Francis, he’s never going to be a fighter who can fight effectively beyond the first round; he’s too big. He’s coming into this bout as the favorite against a guy who beat him five rounds to zero three years ago. That’s because surviving five minutes without getting hit by a deathblow is a modern-day miracle. Tactically, Francis can make a few adjustments to improve his chances of scoring the early KO. He needs to feint and anticipate Stipe’s level changes and predictable head movement and employ up-the-middle strikes (knees and uppercuts) to counter them. It sounds funny to say someone needs to pace themselves for five minutes, but that’s exactly what Francis needs to do. Don’t put everything into the first minute; put controlled combinations together and pick blitz opportunities carefully.

Stipe Miocic via TKO, round three. If it ain’t on wax, it ain’t shhhhh…

Winner: Stipe Miocic | Method: TKO Rd.3

Tyron Woodley (+205 ) vs Vicente Luque (-265)

Woodley: DK: $7.1k | Luque: DK:$9.1k

The original co-main event was a title bout between Brian Ortega and Alexander Volkanovski, but Covid protocols have forced a postponement. That leaves us with a Coachella holographic version of 2016 Tyron Woodley vs. Vicente Luque as the new co-main event.

The worst thing that can happen to a wrestler in MMA is to win a fight by knockout. After that, they usually abandon what got them to the dance; the Bod Man cologne, the Memorex R&B mix CD, and the LA Looks gel all go out the window. In Woodley’s case, it’s his wrestling. He’s a wrestler, and he only has two takedowns in his last eleven fights.

Woodley’s right hand has been a gift and a curse. After knocking out Josh Koscheck in 2013, Woodley fell in love with his right hand. The two immediately eloped, the nuptials made official at The Little Chapel of Love in Vegas that same year. Woodley failed to develop his striking any further and almost entirely abandoned his wrestling. He had one takedown in each of his fights against Wonderboy Thompson, and both times he almost slept Wonderboy with heavy ground and pound both times.

Anthony Pettis, Woodley’s Roufussport teammate, displays the same bad habit inside the cage. For Pettis, it led to the beginning of the end of his run as a title contender. Against Gilbert Melendez, Pettis inexplicably began backing himself up and only engaging with his back against the cage. In that fight, it served him well. His next fight was a title defense against Rafael Dos Anjos, and he got smashed for five rounds.

Woodley has gotten away with that same tactic for several years, and it finally caught up to him in his last three fights (three straight losses). The now-familiar game plan has become to put his back against the cage and throw a right hand once every minute/minute and a half. Woodley averages a day-one cardio kickboxer, two significant strikes landed per minute and just over one takedown for his career. It’s right hand or bust for him, and it salvaged a Hail Mary draw in the first Wonderboy fight and eeked out a suspicious victory in their second fight.

Vicente Luque has won eight of his last noine fights, and the lone loss came to the masterful Wonderboy Thompson. Luque finished seven of those eight fights, six coming via TKO/KO. He has aggressive, powerful Muay Thai with a lead hook similar to Paul “Semtex” Daley’s. Vicente has nasty calf and traditional above the knee leg kicks, and they will be a major factor against Woodley as T-Wood has a wide stance and is susceptible to leg attacks.

Luque would love nothing more than making this an ugly firefight utilizing short combinations in the pocket to damage Woodley. I can’t remember ever seeing Woodley throw a combination. If Luque can stay in his chest with constant pressure, Woodley will trap himself against the cage and become a stationary target. Woodley’s only hope will be to land the Hail Mary right hand. No one will ever accuse Luque of being a sound defensive fighter; he often leaves himself open during exchanges and sustains heavy damage in most fights. But you have to throw strikes in order to cause damage, and Woodley rarely does that.

If this isn’t the fight to return T-Wood to his wrestling roots, there never will be such a fight, and his style won’t sustain a career much longer. Four losses in a row might signal retirement. I’m hoping Woodley adopts the Khabib approach, takedowns early and often. But I don’t have any faith in that. Vicente Luque via decision. Pick him up on your Fantasy Roster. This could turn into a heavy bag training session for Luque.

Winner: Vicente Luque | Method: Decision

Thomas Almeida (+245) vs. Sean O'Malley (-315)

Almeida: DK: $7k | O'Malley: DK: $9.2k

The Snoop Dogg of the UFC, Sean O’Malley, was recently on the verge of superstardom. But in his last bout against Marlon Vera, O’Malley didn’t notice the Cuidado Piso Mojado sign and slipped and rolled his ankle in the first round and was TKO’d. I’m playing. Marlon landed a calf kick, and O’Malley instantly became clubfooted, his lead leg rendered completely useless. It was the second time O’Malley suffered a leg injury during a fight, and he began to draw comparisons to the NBA’s Derrick Rose, a once young MVP on an all-time great trajectory suddenly struggling to stay on a roster. O’Malley’s situation isn’t as dire as D-Rose’s, but a loss to a very beatable opponent in Thomas Almeida could be disastrous.

In 2020, O’Malley returned from a two-year suspension; he spent those years away from the sport, focusing heavily on grappling by competing in professional grappling tournaments. The best way to improve one of your weaknesses is to compete individually in that discipline. But The Sugar Show’s strength is striking. He’s a master at maintaining outside pocket presence and using long strikes to pick his opponents apart. His hand speed is excellent and allows him to land flashy spinning techniques at a high success rate.

Almeida is a prototypical Brazilian Muay Thai striker with an upright stance and very little foot and head movement. He is a slow starter and usually looks worn out by the second round. The pocket isn’t Almeida’s safe space. His striking is too long, and when he gets caught loitering in the pocket with extended combinations, he usually takes heavy damage. Almeida is a lot like the 2020 Dallas Cowboys; he comes back from large deficits by chipping away until he finds himself with a chance to win late in fights he looked on the verge of losing in the first round.

Like naming your daughter Karen, there’s definitely cause for pause when drafting O’Malley on your Fantasy roster, but he’s by far the better fighter. Before the infamous Marlon Vera calf kick, O’Malley was piecing Vera up from the outside with snappy punches and long-range kicks. It had the same feel as the Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad fight a couple of weeks ago; Edwards was clearly the superior striker (after I said Belal was) and well on his way to a dominant victory. There’s only one way to watch a Sean O’Malley fight: in the company of Mary Jane with Cypress Hill blasting from the Aiwa three-CD disc changer. Sean O’Malley via TKO, round two.

Winner: Sean O'Malley | Method: TKO Rd.2

Gillian Robertson (+135 ) vs Miranda Maverick (-165)

Robertson: DK: $7.4k |Maverick: DK: $8.8k

This is a classic matchup between two excellent grapplers that will likely turn out to be a janky kickboxing match. Gillian Robertson is a grappling and submission specialist with rudimentary striking, and Miranda Maverick is a big, strong wrestler with striking like a pair of socks you haven’t changed in a week, stiff. If the fight does make it to the mat for extended periods, I think Maverick is just too powerful for Gillian. It will be hard for Robertson to hold Maverick down or get up from her back if Maverick ends up on top. It would be a feather in the cap for either lady to win by submission, but I think it’s unlikely.

On the feet, Maverick has a few more tools than Gillian. Gillian’s striking is like that half-size spare tire in your trunk; it’s built only to use for short distances in case of an emergency. That’s the same for Robertson’s striking; it’s built to survive for short stretches and to close the distance to tie up or change levels for takedowns.

Maverick has Rex Kwon Do side kicks emphasized with tennis grunts. She’s a wrestler striker with very limited short combinations and poor footwork. Without using footwork to close the distance, you have to leap or reach; Miranda engages from too far away and has to leap perilously into the pocket to close the gap. When she does get inside, her head is similar to Ned Stark's; it never moves.

This doobie’s hoping for a slick grappling match with creative transitions and sub attempts, but I won’t bogart it while I’m holding my breath. Miranda Maverick via decision.

Winner: Miranda Maverick | Method: Decision

Jaime Mullarkey (+105 ) vs Khama Worthy (-135)

Mullarkey: DK: $7.6k | Worthy: DK:$ 8.6k

Recently, while on a cross-country road trip, Jamie Mullarkey stopped to fill up at an auspicious Valero gas station just outside of Las Vegas. If he had taken the time to read the Yelp reviews, he would have known this to be the same Valero where a string of robberies had recently taken place, perpetrated by three NSAC judges disguised as dead presidents. The judges shook Mullarkey down for a win he desperately needed, and as a result, Mullarkey likely finds himself in a must-win bout against the tough and awkward Khama Worthy.

Jamie Mullarkey is a fairly average fighter. Before handing over his weekly progress reports to his parents, Mullarkey would change his B's in wrestling and top control to A's, and his C’s in striking and every physical attribute to O’s for outstanding. In my childhood days, sixty percent of the time, changing B’s to A’s worked one hundred percent of the time. And if it sounds like I’m stalling because I don’t have much to say about Jamie Mullarkey, you got me.

Khama Worthy has Nyquil power in both hands but lacks good fundamental technique. Much like I pointed out about Kevin Holland last week, Worthy’s doesn’t use footwork to close the distance. Instead, he reaches, leading with his head over his lead foot, or crow hops into his strikes like Mike Trout gunning a runner out at the plate. It’s what led to him being TKO’d in a minute and a half in his last bout. When he throws one strike at a time, Worthy tends to stay within himself and throw clean straight punches. It’s when he tries to throw combinations that his technique falls apart, and he gets wild.

On the mat, Khama has big holes. When you give up a takedown and end up in a bad position, there are fundamental ways to go about standing back up. Unless you can immediately explode back up to your feet, you want to avoid giving up your back by turning into your opponent, establishing half guard, then full guard, and then working your feet on the hips and pushing the head down to create space to standup. Worthy tries to go from A-Z and skips everything in between. As a result, he ends up in bad positions that he has to power out of instead of using technique.

Mullarkey needs to make this a grinding MMA fight and institute a premium tax on takedowns. He has a stalling type of top control that could allow him to hold down Worthy for long stretches. If he gets stuck in a kickboxing match, he’ll likely join a prestigious list, a list that includes the names Nate Robinson, Ben Askren, and Curtis Blaydes. TKO, round two, Khama Worthy, on wax.

Winner: Khama Worthy | Method: TKO Rd.2

Prelims

Highlighted Matchup

Modestas Bukauskas (+130) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk  (-160)

Bukauskas: DK: $7.7k | Oleksiejczuk: DK: $8.5k  

Michal Oleksiejczuk fights like he just got kicked out of Applebees for ordering the 2 for $20 deal just for himself. He howls at the moon; he’s wild. A southpaw, Oleksiejczuk’s pressure is a never-ending barrage of left hands that he throws at protractor angles. His striking isn’t technical and never inhibited by any means of defensive measures. I watched a couple of Michal’s fights, and there were times when he threw close to twenty consecutive left hands in a row, and getting punched or kicked in the face never discouraged him from coming forward at all.

The ground game is a different story for Michal; he’s a crime scene chalk outline on the mat and had to install a bidet in his bathroom after getting submitted by a Kimura in his last bout against the promising young prospect Jimmy Crute. And against OSP, Oleksiejczuk passed out from a Von Preux Choke (a shoulder choke from the half guard) before he could remember the safety word. He’s riding a two-fight losing streak after beginning his UFC career with three straight dubs.

Modestas Bukauskas reminds me of a mix between Dollar Tree versions of Andrei Arlovski and Alexander Gustafsson. His bilateral movement is similar to Gus's, and his short, heavy right hand is reminiscent of a young Arlovski. Modestas is 1-1 in the UFC and also lost to Jimmy Crute in his most recent bout. Bukauskas has finished ten of his eleven professional wins, eight of those coming via TKO/KO. This is the perfect fight for Bukauskas; Oleksiejczuk will force him to get out of his comfort zone and fight more aggressively, or he will get run over quickly.

This is a classic toss-up, and the fighter who follows my golden street fighting rule will prevail. Be first and be often. It’s hard to be first and be often more often than Michal Oleksiejczuk. Give me Michal Oleksiejczuk via TKO, round two, on wax.

Winner: Michal Oleksiejczuk | Method: TKO Rd.2

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

I was literally two seconds away from cashing in on Leonardo Santos last weekend before Grant Dawson Ko'd Santos with two ticks left on the clock after possibly losing the first two rounds. This week's underdogs are looking a little mangy, flea-ridden. Afraid that Stipe might move closer to even, I dropped a twen on him at (+110) early in the week. Tyron Woodley and Thomas Almeida are the biggest dogs on the card, but their paths to victory are treacherous, and their recent performances were similar to mine while I sat on the couch. Modestas Bukauskas, I'll drop a Hamilton on him at (+130) to add a little excitement to the fight, and he has the power to KO the reckless Michal Oleksiejczuk.

Pick 'Em

Alonzo Menifield (-300 ) vs. Fabio Cherant (+235 )

Winner: Alonzo Menifield

 Method: TKO Rd.1

Jared Gooden (+185 ) vs. Abubakar Nurmagomedov (-235 )

Winner: Abubakar Nurmagomedov

 Method: Decision

Shane Young (+150 ) vs. Omar Morales (-185 )

Winner: Shane Round

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Marc-Andre Barriault (-130) vs. Abu Azaitar (+100)

    Winner: Abu Azaitar

 Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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