We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

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Charles Oliveira (-140 ) vs. Michael Chandler (+115)

Oliveira: DK: $8.7k, FD: $ | Chandler: DK: $7.5k, FD: $

I don’t ever remember a title fight between two fighters with this vast of a difference in UFC experience. A veteran of twenty-six UFC bouts dating back to 2010, Charles Oliveira will finally be fighting for a UFC title against a Michael Chandler with only two minutes and thirty seconds worth of UFC experience. But whether in an octagon, a pentagon, or a rhombus, a fight is a fight, right? Nah, not really. The bright lights of the big show are always more revealing: 8k video versus hand cranked 1890’s sped up black and white film.

After holding a Crackerjack prize world title and pretending it was an actual real world title— like I used to pretend my pet rock (no joke, I had a pet rock named Spike that I drew on with a Sharpie) was a hamster when I was a kid—Michael Chandler has a chance to strap on his Skechers Shape-Ups and walk the walk. For years Chandler has claimed to be the best lightweight in the world while fighting in the G-League, and now, only Charles Oliveira stands between him and the moniker, second-best lightweight in the world. Khabib has his CPA on standby and will be writing off this championship on his taxes as a charitable donation.

Chandler has always reminded me of a more dynamic Matt Hughes; that’s lofty praise as Hughes is an all-time great. Wrestler striking, Matt Hughes was the epitome of it, and Chandler might have the best in the game. Basic one to two-punch combinations, with tight technique and heavy power, good enough to hang with elite strikers, but mostly used to set up takedowns, that’s wrestler striking. MC’s right hand is a piston, and he uses it to cover a lot of distance. When it lands, people take naps.

This past January, Dan Hooker showed too much respect to that right hand and allowed Chandler to stalk him around the cage, forcing him to give up ground and constantly retreat. Chandler’s high fight I.Q. was on display when he made an in-fight adjustment to close the distance by switching stances mid combination and stepping forward with his left hand from the southpaw stance, making it a lead hook that dropped Hooker.

Chandler’s ground game is a throwback to Mark Coleman and Tito Ortiz, the originators of ground and pound. Tito never bothered to advance position from the top; he sat in his opponent’s guard and dropped elbows and fists and more elbows. That’s Chandler’s style. He doesn’t waste much energy passing guard and goes to work in the closed guard like a mini Tito. There’s one place you don’t want to be when facing Michael Chandler, underneath him. Unless you’re Charles Oliveira.

The knock against Oliveira has been that he’s a top ten fighter whose skills top out at top-five competition. Oliveira is on an eight-fight winning streak and has gone 9-1 since moving back to the lightweight division. His last loss was a spanking at the hands of Paul Felder in 2017, and historically, an inability to beat elite competition has plagued Oliveira; Cub Swanson, Frankie Edgar, Max Holloway, Anthony Pettis, Ricardo Lamas, all L’s. Oliveira has technical, traditional Brazilian Muay Thai with a very upright posture and straight, long strikes. Charles has very tight, long punches, but he lacks pocket presence and head movement and only moves in straight lines. He has dynamic kicks and uses up-the-middle snap kicks and teeps and can turn them into round kicks mid-movement. Leg kicks should be a staple in Oliveira’s game plan against Chandler. Michael Chandler started the Drop Foot Challenge back in 2017 when he lost his Bellator title to Brent Primus after taking a low calf kick that turned his foot into a defective prosthetic.

When it comes to Jiu-Jitsu, Oliveira is a four-star general. His guard and his top game are the best in the division, and Chandler will be constantly threatened with submissions if he is content to sit in Oliveira’s guard. Oliveira’s transitions and ability to “float” on top allow opponents very little opportunity to escape from their back. “Floating” from the top position is maintaining position by allowing the opponent to roll and maneuver beneath you without providing an opportunity to escape. TBE at this technique in MMA is Demian Maia.

In the third round against Tony Ferguson, Oliveira transitioned from full mount to back control into a triangle choke and turned it into a mounted triangle before transitioning to side control. Ferguson couldn’t wipe his ass for a month and had to purchase a bidet and an industrial air dryer after Oliveira caught him in a nasty armbar at the end of the first round. Free of charge, Oliveira put on a Jiu-Jitsu clinic for a Tenth Planet Jiu-Jitsu black belt in that fight. Charles accentuates his grappling with nasty elbows and intermittent ground and pound and never stops attacking.

As long as the fight stays standing, Oliveira will be in constant danger of Chandler’s life-changing right hand, and as long as the fight is on the mat, Chandler will be in danger of Oliveira’s world-class submissions. I think the key in this fight is top position and who can achieve it more often. Chandler has never been submitted, but he hasn’t faced a grappler the caliber of Charles Oliveira. For Oliveira, he will be looking to score his own takedowns and put Chandler on his back: a position Chandler doesn’t often find himself in. The more dynamic striker is Oliveira because he uses more diverse attacks, but I think Chandler is the more dangerous striker because of his fast hands and athletic explosiveness.

The key to this fight will be the first round. Thirteen of Michael Chandler’s seventeen career wins have all come in the first round. If Oliveira can stay away from that right hand in the first round, his odds of winning the fight will increase dramatically.

When it comes to Fantasy rosters, have one of these guys on yours. The potential for a finish is high for both fighters, and this is a complete and utter toss-up. I’m riding an unprecedented five main event-winning streak, and a lot is at stake. On wax, number six, Charles Oliveira via triangle choke, round three.

Winner: Charles Oliveira | Method: Triangle Choke Rd.2

Tony Ferguson (+150 ) vs Beneil Dariush (-185)

Ferguson: DK: $7.6k, FD:$ | Dariush: DK:$8.6k, FD:$

Tony Ferguson wears his sunglasses at night so he can so he can… It’s a misconception that Justin Gaethje is responsible for ruining Tony Ferguson. In fact, it was an extension cord that toppled Tony Ferguson from the ranks of the elite in the lightweight division. While wearing his BluBlockers indoors during a media obligation days before his fifth intended matchup with Khabib, Tony tripped on an extension cord and blew his knee out. That domino set off a memorable week of late replacement fights that almost led to a Max Holloway vs. Khabib matchup but eventually resulted in Al Iaquinta fighting Khabib for the belt. Of course, Conor McGregor stole the show when he showed up at a media event posing as a Two Men And A Truck mover and threw a dolly through a bus window, hoping to scare Khabib.

Mr. Ferguson has fallen on hard times as of late. After a legendary twelve-fight winning streak, Tony has dropped two straight. That’s not a big deal in and of itself, but the way he lost those two fights is alarming. Against Gaethje, Tony batted his eyes and blew kisses at unconsciousness for nearly four rounds before being waved off when he began stumbling around the cage trying to catch imaginary butterflies with a net after taking one too many Gaethje fastballs to the face. In his most recent bout, Tony auditioned for a CSI remake, playing the role of a crime scene chalk outline when he was son’d by Charles Oliveira on the mat for fifteen minutes. Tony, Father’s Day is around the corner…

Ferguson is unique in that his strengths double as his biggest weaknesses. His ability to freestyle in the cage makes him unpredictable while at the same time there’s not enough method to Tony’s madness, and it becomes apparent that he has no real game plan. Tony has been known to use fancy footwork and will bust out the Salsa or Cha-Cha-Cha in the middle of fights to mesmerize the opponent, but he also lacks fundamental footwork and often ends up off balance with his feet too close together and unable to defend himself. The lack of footwork leaves him susceptible to leg kicks, and the Gaethje fight wasn’t the first time Tony’s inability to defend leg kicks was on display. Beneil Dariush isn’t a big leg kicker, but this is the fight to change that.

Beneil Dariush comes into this fight on a six-fight winning streak, with four of those wins coming by some form of a finish. For Dariush, this will be his twentieth fight in the UFC and the one that can finally propel him into the top tier of title challengers. Dariush has always had excellent grappling, but since his debut in 2014, Beneil’s striking has become more and more dangerous. His style is often reckless, but it’s aggressive, and he throws heavy, wide punches from the southpaw stance and nasty left round kicks. Beneil doesn’t put combinations together very well and is most effective throwing one or two strikes at a time.

Dariush is coming off a three-round grappling clinic and decision win against the very tough Diego Ferreira. Behind his overhand left hand, Dariush constantly closed the distance and took Ferreira down from the body lock against the cage. He can also close the distance with a traditional double-leg attempt and achieve underhooks from it. The only knock against Dariush’s ground game is his lack of consistent ground and pound as a means to end the fight; he is more of a position over submission grappler and is often content controlling top position.

Keys to victory: Ferguson needs to stay on his feet and force scrambles if he does end up on his back. On the feet, Ferguson needs to draw out Beneil’s left hand with feints and broken cadences and counter with short combinations. Tony needs to overwhelm Dariush with volume and pace and stay in his face while maintaining lateral movement. Dariush needs to cut off the cage and pressure Tony beyond the warning track where he can engage the clinch behind his left hand and wild hooks. From the clinch, Dariush can look for trips and win rounds with top control. On wax, Beneil Dariush via decision.

Winner: Beneil Dariush | Method: Decision

Katlyn Chookagian (-140) vs. Viviane Araujo (+115)

Chookagian: DK: $8.8k, FD:$ | Araujo: DK: $7.4k, FD:$

This is power vs. finesse and volume. The women’s flyweight division is about as deep as the pool at the end of a Slip n’ Slide, and the winner of this could be on the shortlist of contenders for the near-unbeatable Valentina Shevchenko. Chookagian fought both Shevchenko sisters but beat the wrong one. She challenged Valentina last year and lost via TKO in the third round, but she dominated Valentina’s sister Antonina in her very next fight. For Viviane Araujo, a dominant, statement-making win would provide a fresh face with a unique set of stand-up skills to challenge Valentina.

Katlyn is a technically sound kickboxer who uses excellent pocket presence to dominate fights from the fringe of the pocket using short, quick combinations of peppering shots. She’s a point fighter who implements death by one thousand paper cuts by outworking her opponent and focusing on constantly touching her opponent and scoring points. Chookagian is one of the best female fighters in the UFC when it comes to using her jab to establish range and set up combinations while also using teeps and up-the-middle snap kicks to the body as distance managers.

If I were using the Madden rating system to measure Chookagian’s power, it would probably clock in around the forties. Her two most recent losses came to power strikers Valentina Shevchenko and Jessica Andrade. She has a hard time earning respect and just doesn’t provide enough of a KO threat to keep heavy strikers honest. Viviane Araujo is the definition of a power striker.

Araujo gives up a lot of technique to Chookagian but makes up for it with aggression and KO power. Her best weapon is a power boxer’s jab that she fires from different angles and doubles and triples up. She rarely throws her right hand without a lead hand escort, and she moves off her right hand at angles to set up follow up shots. Her overhand right is a four-seam fastball from the stretch, and she throws every strike with one hundred percent power. Araujo has wrinkles too; she will switch stances mid combination with a step-in right hand to close the distance as she turns the power cross into a lead right hook.

The underrated often-overlooked aspect of Araujo’s game is her takedowns and top control. She has one of the best power double-legs in women’s MMA, and she used it to take down the always-tough Roxanne Modaferri over and over again in her most recent bout. From the top position, Araujo is strong and can control stretches of rounds with stifling control and well-timed heavy ground and pound. The red flag for Araujo is her gas tank; she fades late in fights, and that could be a big factor against Chookagian, who could steal the late minutes by outworking her. Also, even with all her power, Araujo has only one finish in five UFC bouts, and that was a KO in her debut.

Viviane opened as the slight (+115) underdog and has all kinds of value as such. If this fight ends before the allotted fifteen minutes, it will likely be Araujo with her hand raised. For her ability to land heavy strikes and chances of creating a fight-ending sequence, Araujo is a solid roster option in the middle tier. Chookagians value will be significant strikes landed, but don't look for any finishing points from her. This has split-decision written all over it, which naturally makes it a toss-up. Viviane Araujo has more options and is a little less predictable, which poses a unique threat for Chookagian. It will be crucial for her to win the early rounds, as the latter could be all Chookagian. Put it on wax, Viviane Araujo, via decision.

Winner: Viviane Araujo | Method: Decision

Shane Burgos (-140 ) vs Edson Barboza (+115)

Burgos: DK: $8.4k, FD:$ | Barboza: DK: $7.8k, FD:$

*Fight Of The Night*

 If this isn’t a banger, there’s no such thing. Every single Barboza fight and every single Burgos fight is a banger. Barboza can knock you out so clean and fast you won’t even fall; you’ll just stand there like a sleepwalker while the ref raises Barboza’s hand after the fight. On the other side of the cage will be Shane Burgos, whose hands are like the U.S.’s foreign policy, nothing but bombs.

Shane Burgos doesn’t slide down poles or run into burning buildings to save people, but he’s a firefighter nonetheless. He’ll hang out in the pocket wearing nothing but his chonies and chanclas and make himself at home; he’ll loiter and refuse to leave the pocket after closing like Homer at an all-you-can-eat buffet. Shane Burgos’s defense: Zero point zero, Mr. Butarsky; Burgos doesn’t believe in it. His defense is a starvation diet so he can eat punches on fight night, and that’s the only reason you don’t hear Burgos’s name among those of title challengers.

Offensively, Burgos is a mother-shut-your-mouth. He’s that dirty word you aren’t allowed to say in public, a calf kicker. Burgos will use the low calf kick to open up his hands once the opponent's attention is on his necrotic leg, working behind a heavy boxer’s jab that he doubles and triples to gain entry into the pocket. Once he’s in the pocket, he unloads with power hooks in both hands while changing levels and attacking the body. In addition to nasty leg kicks, Burgos has excellent up-the-middle teep and snap kicks that he uses to vary his attacks. BUT, he doesn’t defend his lead shoulder at all, and his head is a magnet for right hands. Little known fact: Shane Burgos was the inspiration for track four on the Slim Shady LP.

Edson Barboza is the owner, in my opinion, of the greatest KO in UFC history. Terry Etim has been making a living as an ironing board since 2012 after Barboza KO’d him with the most glorious spinning wheel kick you will ever see. If you’ve never seen it… I don’t even know how to finish that. Barboza is in the most vicious leg kicker of all-time conversation with Pedro Rizzo, Jose Aldo, and Justin Gaethje. If you're a fan of Joe Rogan, you know he has said a million times that Barboza has the fastest switch-step left-round kick he has ever seen. That’s high praise and #facts. The switch-step round kick forces his opponents to anticipate it and drop their hands to defend it.

In a lot of ways, Barboza is a larger Jose Aldo. They both have similar boxing and utilize similar combinations. Barboza, like Aldo, sets up up the liver punch behind a one-two and then comes back to the head with a same-hand lead hook. His hands are tight, and he throws short combinations, and for the most part, Barboza’s hands are underrated. I’ve talked about the “dart” punch recently; it’s like a delayed cross thrown after firing the hips, creating a short hitch that has the same effect that a changeup has on a batter after seeing a ninety-five mph fastball. You tend to defend it prematurely and then get hit with it when you play peek-a-boo around your guard. Barboza drops people with his dart right hand and will use it often during a fight.

Barboza’s major malfunction is also his defense. You can bully Barboza with pressure and volume, and he has been known to wither under that pressure and eventually breaks. After losing four of his last five bouts at lightweight, Barboza moved down to featherweight, where he is 1-1 and coming off a dominant win against Makwan Amirkhani.

This fight will put the winner on the fringe of title contention, especially if one can finish the fight. At the opening, Barboza is the slight (+110) underdog, but I think it will be a straight pick ‘em fight come fight night. Flip a coin and put one of these guys on your roster. On wax, Shane Burgos via decision.

Winner: Shane Burgos | Method: Decision

Matt Schnell (-165 ) vs Rogerio Bontorin (+135)

Schnell: DK: $8.9k, FD:$ |Bontorin: DK:$ 7.3k, FD:$

The classic striker vs. grappler matchup. It’s simple MMA math; if Bontorin can get the fight to the ground, he will win the fight, and if Matt Schnell can stay on his feet and kickbox for fifteen minutes, he’ll box Bontorin’s face off, Castor Troy.

Matt Schnell is a slick, crafty striker with quick hands and deceptive power. Schnell attacks the body then uses level change feints to set up power strikes to the head, high-level stuff. He taps dances on the outside and manages range well with a clean, stiff jab. Subtle slips and counters in the pocket, defensive head movement off strikes, and damaging calf kicks are all in his arsenal, making Schnell a much more diverse striker than Bontorin. Schnell can strike while moving in any direction, whether countering or attacking, and he’s a threat to finish the fight, not because of his immense power but because of his hand speed and ability to put combinations together and hit you with shots you don’t see coming.

My only worry about Schnell is his habit of sharing dung beetle smoothies with Bear Grills when he camps out in the pocket. A 90s baby and Super Nintendo enthusiast, Schnell tends to fight like he’s playing Killer Instinct, stringing together 32-hit Spinal Combos. Too much time spent in the kill zone increases your chances of catching a counter while your hands are down. Schnell needs to be in and out, float like a butterfly, and all that. I like Schnell to outwork Bontorin on the feet and rack up significant strikes.

Matt Schnell isn’t an infant on his back; he has eight submission wins on his record, but it's smart to avoid your opponent’s strengths as much as possible, and Bontorin’s strength is Jiu-Jitsu. Bontorin has eleven wins via submission and has an affinity for rear-naked chokes. In his last bout against Kai Kara France, Bontorin was dominating France in the early minutes of the fight, quickly taking France down and achieving back mount. He had France tied up in knots like he was a senior pretzel engineer at Wetzel’s. Unfortunately for Bontorin, France survived and got back to his feet and slept Bontorin like ASMR.

Bontorin’s game plan should be to close the distance behind his reckless wide punches and work takedowns from the clinch. When Bontorin gets caught exchanging in the pocket, he starts slapping instead of punching, looking more like a Polk High School lunchroom brawler than a professional fighter. I see dudes shadowboxing at 24 Hour Fitness in the Zumba room wearing Tap Out shirts with better hands than Bontorin. Penguins have better hands than Bontorin.

I’m taking Matt Schnell, but that starfish will pucker if Bontorin can get him to the mat, especially early. Because of the submission threat, there is some sleeper value on Bontorin; he could be a valid lower-tier option for your Fantasy roster. But I think Schnell will have enough time on the feet to win a clear decision. Matt Schnell via decision.

Winner: Matt Schnell | Method: Decision

Prelims

Highlighted Matchups

"Groovy" Lando Vannata (+100) vs. Mike Grundy (-120)

Vannata: DK: $8k, FD:$ | Grundy: DK: $8.2k, FD:$  

Vannata is best known for making his UFC debut on short notice against Tony Ferguson—when Ferguson was still unstoppable—and almost shocked the world when he had Ferguson on Bambi legs in the first round. Ferguson submitted him in the second round, but Vannata showed his standup was good enough to hang with anyone at Lightweight. Vannata is a savvy striker with high-level slips and counters and stance-switch attacks and also has a highlight reel spinning wheel kick KO on his resume. If he doesn’t get careless and chooses his openings wisely, Vannata will have a massive advantage on the feet against Mike Grundy.

The questions for Vannata will be can he stay away from the cage and maintain distance and defend takedowns, and if he does end up on his back, can he scramble back to his feet. Mike Grundy is a wrestler with textbook wrestler striking, and his path to victory is double leg takedowns and top control. Grundy’s striking is stiff and consists of right hands and left hooks. He has KO power if he connects but lacks the technical ability, footwork, and he can’t put combinations together. If he can navigate his way through the minefield of spinning back fists and wheel kicks that Vannata will set for him, Grundy will have a huge advantage in the wrestling and cardio departments.

With very little confidence, I’m taking Groovy Lando via decision. As a Fantasy option, he’s a high risk, its possible he could spend extended minutes on his back, but he could also land a sneaky punch that turns the tide real quick. And now I'm changing my mind as I'm posting this... I don't know if Vannata has the cardio, even dropping down to featherweight, to defend takedowns for fifteen minutes. Mike Grundy via decision. Like I said, toss-up.

Winner: Mike Grundy | Method: Decision

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

Last week was a good week for underdogs; I hit on Jun Yong Park and Alex Morono, and I took my own advice and dropped a crispy Jackson on Michael Trizano. It's slim pickings for the dogs this week, but any time you can get Michael Chandler at plus money, you got to jump on him. My special move is the Win-Win; pick one fighter to win the fight, and put my scrilla where my mouf isn't and bet on the other fighter. I'm one thousand percent doing that here. Michael Chandler is the no-brainer Twenty-Ten-Twen this week, and he may need less than five minutes to pay off.

If you want to get silly, hit the trees like Sonny Bono and rub your ass in the dirt a little bit the card's opener features Sean Soriano at (+175). This is his second stint in the UFC, and he has heavy hands. His opponent is Christos Giagos, who has excellent wrestling/grappling and is the favorite because of his ability to neutralize strikers by grounding them. It's a long shot, but if Soriano can extend the stand-up periods, I like his chances.

This is an all-or-nothing card and will likely result in a night spent lathered in an abundance of dubs or lying in the fetal position in the corner wearing nothing but streak-stained chonies and chanclas and stinking of defeat. This card is nothing but toss-ups; tread lightly.

Pick 'Em

Jacare Souza (-115 ) vs. Andre Muniz (-105 )

Winner: Andre Muniz

 Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2 

Andrea Lee (+105 ) vs. Antonina Shevchenko (yes, that shevchenko) (-125 )

Winner: Antonina Shevchenko

 Method: Decision

Jordan Wright (-110 ) vs. Jamie Pickett (-110)

Winner: Jordan Wright

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Gina Mazany (-220) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+175)

    Winner: Gina Mazany

 Method: Decision

Kevin Aguilar (+100) vs. Tucker Lutz (-120)

    Winner: Tucker Lutz

 Method: Decision

Christos Giagos (-220) vs. Sean Soriano (+175)

    Winner: Sean Soriano

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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