We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko & Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

“You either retire early as the champion, or you fight long enough to become a knockout meme.”-Unknown MMA newsletter contributor circa 2021.

It’s been a long six months for Conor McGregor. Just as well, it’s been a long day for the Notorious one. He’s been working swings—four ten-hour shifts a week—since late January. With fifteen minutes left before he can punch out, McGregor pretends to be busy while making sure not to break character. They write you up if you break character. Three write-ups and you’re done.

Conor decides to hit the chow hall and collect his daily rations of salt pork, dehydrated biscuits, and coffee. Even after six months, Conor still can’t get used to the stiff wooden crutches. The bottoms end in wooden nubs and are treacherously slippery on every surface, and apparently, padding hadn’t been invented in 1863.

The chow tent is at the opposite end of the camp, and he hobbles along as fast as the improvised peg leg will carry him. The fittings were hastily fashioned and are too big, so the base rubs his stump raw halfway through every shift.

He sees a Rucker wagon hauling more wounded hustling along the dirt path and has just enough time to maneuver out of its way. It wasn’t long ago when McGregor was swift and agile; a red maple leaf caught in an autumn breeze on his feet and could have dodged a dozen wagons coming at him from every angle.

The wails from the surgeon's tent snap him out of his reverie. He began his shift in that tent. Although it’s his least favorite part of the day, McGregor never fails to put on a show, crying for his mother at the top of his lungs the entire time the surgeon operates on him.

There’s a line for the chow tent, and he takes up at the end of it. There’s no special treatment for the wounded. Everyone here is wounded in one way or another. He removes the pocket watch he can’t forget to check back in before leaving for the day and realizes his last fifteen minutes are up, and he has to head back. They write you up if you accrue any unapproved OT. Three write-ups and you’re done.

It was a smooth transition for McGregor, becoming a Civil War reenactment actor. After Dustin Poirier amputated his right leg below the knee in the Octagon back in January, McGregor became a bonafide Daniel Day-Lewis method actor with an air of being born to play the role. Come Saturday night, if Conor McGregor hasn’t learned to defend the low calf kick, he’ll end up right back in Vicksburg, Mississippi.

Conor McGregor (+105 ) vs. Dustin Poirier (-125)

McGregor: DK: $8.1k, FD: $ | Poirier: DK: $8.1k, FD: $

There was a brief moment in time when Conor McGregor was invincible. “Mystic Mac” wasn’t just a facetious moniker bestowed upon a man known for only talking the talk. He Vince McMahon strutted the strut, Babe Ruth called his shots, and '93 Joe Carter walked off one-punch KO victories. Then Nate Diaz came along, and the veil of invincibility was forever compromised. Diaz, a fighter who identifies as a winner of every fight he is in, might be the only fighter with an internal belief stronger than McGregor's.

McGregor fought Poirier for the first time in 2014 when Conor’s epic UFC title run was just beginning to pick up steam. That was a different Conor McGregor. That was a Conor McGregor who didn’t believe it was possible to ever lose a fight. By January 2021 and their second meeting, that unwavering belief had become a faint echo trailing off down the cluttered corridors of McGregor’s mind. Fighting was no longer Conor’s only interest, the only option in life. He had come to grips with the fact that he was no longer invincible after losses to Nate Diaz, Floyd Mayweather, and Khabib Nurmagomedov. You can only lie to yourself for so long before that little voice in the back of your mind calling you out on your bull-jive becomes too loud to ignore.

Ultimately, it wasn’t the changes in mentality that did in McGregor the second time against Dustin Poirier; it was the physical changes to his fighting style that come with training exclusively for boxing that hindered McGregor’s performance that night. Go watch McGregor vs. Aldo or McGregor vs. Mendez, and then watch McGregor vs. Poirier 2. There’s a drastic change in Mcgregor’s style and stance.

Before announcing the second Poirier fight, McGregor was training for another massive boxing match against Manny Pacquiao. He was training almost exclusively for a boxing rule set, and it showed in the Poirier fight. Instead of the upright bladed, bouncing karate style that was his trademark early in his career, McGregor came out hunched over and flatfooted. The stance took away any dexterity in his lead leg, and as a result, he didn’t throw any, none, nil, zero, zilch, nada snap, or side-kicks up the middle. The same kicks that he used to slowly destroy Chad Mendez’s body, systematically breaking Mendez with stabbing kicks to the gut.

Then there were the Poirier calf kicks. McGregor’s stance made him heavy on his lead leg, which only allows you to sit down on low kicks to absorb them rather than being able to check outward or vacate the leg entirely to defend. After watching the fight for a second time, I realized Poirier didn’t land the first calf kick until there were only fifty-five seconds left in the first round. The fight was over halfway through the second. In a matter of three and a half minutes, Poirier rendered McGregor’s lead leg useless to the point it was unstable, and McGregor was stumbling after every strike he threw.

The only way to defend a low calf kick is to make it miss entirely, and the best way to do that is to bring your heel to your ass like you’re wiping your foot off on a mat. Your knee doesn’t elevate at all; you literally pull your foot back like you’re doing a one-leg butt-kicker. The calf kick will miss, and if the opponent throws a traditional above-the-knee leg kick, he/she will likely land their shin on your knee and never throw the kick again. That’s how Chris Weidman broke Anderson Silva’s shin. And then ten years later his own shin…

After McGregor vs. Poirier 2, I called Dustin Poirier the greatest lightweight of all time, not named Khabib. Look at his resume. Two dubs against Max Holloway, including a submission win, in and of itself may be worthy of such lofty praise. Poirier TKO’d Justin Gaethje, TKO’d Eddie Alvarez, submitted Anthony Pettis, and TKO’d Conor McGregor. Like I said, Dustin Poirier is the greatest lightweight of all time, not named Khabib.

For the most part, McGregor had more success with his hands than Poirier did in the first round of the second fight. Conor landed his left hand behind an active lead hand several times. He finished his one-twos with his lead hand and landed it at a high rate, as Poirier would exit the pocket. Towards the end of the first round, Poirier started timing Conor’s left hand and was finding success with his check hook counter. Once Poirier started landing the calf kicks, he opened up with his patented shovel hooks (between hooks and uppercuts). When he starts letting his combinations go and gets to second and third level strikes, it’s usually a wrap. Poirier started feinting low kicks and coming over the top with overhands to put McGregor away with a flurry of alternating shovel hooks.

The keys for the rubber match: For Conor McGregor, he needs to read the Weekly Knockout and defend calf kicks the way I outlined. Second, he needs to bring back his active karate-hybrid stance with a light lead leg and throw the up-the-middle and spinning kicks that make his attacks far more dynamic and open up his hands. Simply by not approaching this as a boxing match and using all his weapons, McGregor can get back on track with a vintage Conor McGregor finish.

It may just be gamesmanship, but Poirier recently said in an interview that he won’t be looking to throw the calf kicks again, and he expected Conor to be the one looking to land them instead. If that’s true, I’ll Cersei shame Poirier relentlessly after he wakes up. Other than attacking Conor’s legs, Poirier needs to open up with his hands much sooner. He needs to make this a grimey firefight and stay in Conor’s chest. McGregor needs space to be effective; Poirier has to make sure not to give him any. Conor McGregor breaks. He’s broken multiple times, and it’s usually because of a failing gas tank. Poirier can push a pace that McGregor can’t keep up with past the third round.

This is one of those fights that I have no real idea what to expect. Last time I talked myself out of picking Poirier at the last minute, but I put my money where my mouth wasn’t and turned a Jackson into a Grant betting on Poirier. This time Vegas has the fight as a pick ‘em, dead even at (-110). Bust out the Bic lighter and Yankee candles and put it on wax, Dustin Poirier via TKO, round three.

Winner: Dustin Poirier | Method: TKO Rd.3

Gilbert Burns (+140 ) vs Wonderboy (-170)

Burns: DK: $7.7k, FD:$ | Wonderboy: DK:$8.5k, FD:$

There are two legitimate threats to Kamaru Usman’s title in the welterweight division: Colby Covington and Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. Covington was one round away from winning the title going into the fifth round against Usman even at two rounds a piece. Covington had Usman in all kinds of trouble multiple times in the fight, but Colby's jaw was the first to break, and Usman went on to win by TKO in the fifth. Wonderboy is the only top contender who hasn’t already faced Usman and poses the most unique threat.

Wonderboy is the perfect example of Karate’s use in MMA. Before entering MMA, Wonderboy competed at the highest level of Karate competition and holds a perfect career record of 58-0. He's eight up on Floyd Mayweather. Karate provides a unique advantage when it comes to stand-up in MMA; it maximizes striking distance with quick in/out movements. Wonderboy manipulates distance with lead leg sidekicks and well-timed blitzes from outside the pocket. He has maintained his point-fighting technique, looking to leap into range with quick, short combinations before leaping out of striking range. He switches stances often but is most effective from the southpaw stance; when he has an opponent hurt or shelled up defensively, he will quickly switch to southpaw and look to land his left-side attacks, his power attacks.

Power, I say that relatively speaking, Wonderboy doesn’t have a lot of power; he has surprise. He hurts you with strikes you don’t see coming; for example, against an orthodox fighter, he can throw his lead leg behind his jab hiding the kick from view as he brings it over his opponent’s lead shoulder.

Against a power striker like Gilbert Burns, Wonderboy will have to be wary of retreating along the cage with his hands down and head straight up. He tends to trap himself and leave himself open to power strikes. If Gil Burns catches him with his hands down like that, it’s a wrap with the sparkly bows and fancy garlands.

Burns was one follow-up shot away from finishing Kamaru Usman in the first round last February. Instead, he emptied his gas tank desperately hunting for the early finish, and Usman slowly took over with punishing power strikes. Burns's striking style isn’t optimized in a technical back and forth match; he doesn’t string together smooth combinations and is more of a one-punch power striker looking to land a Shohei Ohtani blast instead of working the count.

Before the Usman fight, Gilbert’s striking had been the difference in his two previous bouts, a two-minute KO of Demian Maia and five-round domination of Tyron Woodley. He has power in both hands, but his overhand right can end any fight, and he has excellent round kicks to the legs and body. Although Burns throws mostly naked kicks, he can get away with it because they’re quick and heavy. If Gilbert touches you with a kick, whether you check it or block it, it’s going to cause damage.

But Burns’s specialty is Jiu-Jitsu. Burns is a world-class, accomplished Jiu-Jitsu player who started his career with the UFC in 2014 in the lightweight division. He had ups and downs at lightweight but still went 8-3 in the division but is 4-1 since moving up to welterweight. Wonderboy has excellent takedown defense, mostly because of his constant lateral movement. Woodley was able to get Wonderboy to the mat, but only after dropping him with a big right hand.

Wonderboy should dominate the stand-up; I’m not overly impressed with Gilbert’s striking. It’s mostly reliant on power. He moves in straight lines and always attacks straight up the middle, and isn’t great at fighting at range. Also, there are very few wrinkles in Burn’s striking, and he mostly throws short basic combinations. Thompson should be able to remain on the outside and frustrate Burns and make it difficult for Burns to score takedowns. However, there’s always value in Burns landing a big overhand or hook and finishing the fight. But I’m rolling with Wonderboy via decision. And that’s on wax.

Winner: Wonderboy | Method: Decision

Tai Tuivasa (-140) vs. Greg Hardy (+115)

Tuivasa: DK: $8.4k, FD:$ | Hardy: DK: $7.8k, FD:$

Tai Tuivasa would make the worst poker player of all time; he’d go all-in on every hand and lose the house, the dog, and his two-lane-streaked chonies. He’s a power puncher with a kill-or-be-killed approach and doesn’t waste much energy defending strikes or defending much of anything; he won't even clap back if you hit him with a "your mama" joke. A firefight, that’s what Tuivasa wants to engage in and is willing to play the odds that he’ll land the fight-ender first.

Jerry Jones has ruined my life for the better part of the last twenty-six years; his unwillingness to concede control to a capable GM and head coach has cemented us fans in football purgatory. One of the more desperate moves he ever made was the signing of Greg Hardy following his questionable off-field issues; it destroyed the locker room, and Hardy offered nothing on the field. I laughed when he began training for MMA competition, and over the years, that laughter slowly died down, as Hardy became a legit mixed martial artist.

Then, last December, I saw Greg Hardy on his back against Marcin Tybura and started laughing again like Henry Hill in Goodfellas. I had to remove the words “mixed” and “artist” from “mixed martial artist,” leaving him as just martial. My man looked like a pigeon with a broken wing on the mat. It looked like homie was underwater doing the doggie paddle upside down. In the first round, Hardy’s boxing looked impressive, but as soon as Tybura scored a takedown, Hardy began looking all over for an exit and an usher to escort him.

Hardy has the power to end any fight, but he has New Years' resolution cardio and is usually begging for an inhaler by the second round. Fortunately for Hardy, either he or Tuivasa will be sleeping before the second round begins. I’m pushing the chips into the center, betting it will be Hardy hooked up to the sleep apnea machine at the end of this one. Tai Tuivasa via TKO, round one. Have one of these guys on your roster; the likelihood of an early finish for one or the other is high.

Winner: Tai Tuivasa | Method: TKO Rd.1

Irene Aldana (-120 ) vs Yana Kunitskaya (+100)

Aldana: DK: $8.3k, FD:$ | Kunitskaya: DK: $7.9k, FD:$

Irene Aldana is the perfect example of how the failure to account for one minor detail can alter history. During the Franklin expedition, the crews of the Erebus and the Terror failed to account for one minor detail, vitamin C. The failure to include Vitamin C in the crew’s basic diet led to the demise of every crew member. Who knew vitamin C deficiency could cause scurvy? Last year, against Holly Holm, the minor detail Aldana failed to account for was taking one single, solitary step to her right and cutting off Holm instead of chasing her in a circle for twenty-five minutes. It was like watching your dog chase its tell for five five-minute rounds with a one-minute break in between to lick its bum.

Before that fight, Aldana looked like a promising contender with slick classic boxing. She bobs and rolls her way in and out of the pocket and works behind a stiff jab. Irene has heavy power in her right hand and rarely throws it without the jab in front. Defensively, Aldana is textbook. Her hands never drop or leave her face, and if you throw out the Holm fight as an outlier, Aldana has excellent bilateral movement to set up angles to engage. I like making fighter comparisons, and Aldana reminds me a lot of a bigger Alexa Grasso.

Don’t sleep on this fight, homies. This will be highly competitive, and the action should be nonstop. Yana Kunitskaya has a full arsenal of attacks, kicks, and punches, with solid perpetual lateral movement. She uses her jab well and throws never-ending short combinations from the fringe of the pocket. But Kunitskaya’s bread and butter is old-school dirty boxing in the clinch; she’s a grinder who likes to press the opponent against the cage and chip away with knees and short punches while working trips.

Kunitskaya was able to take down Jiu-Jitsu wizard Ketlen Vieira multiple times in her most recent bout, and Aldana will have to keep her back away from the cage and dominate the center of the Octagon. Kunitskaya’s major malfunction, her power is like Texas in the winter, none. She has to make this an ugly fight and pressure Aladana to close the distance.

Aldana provides a better shot at creating a fight-ending sequence, and as long as her output is consistently high, she should have the edge in the stand-up. If Kunitskaya can’t clinch and work takedowns, she will have a hard time winning the stand-up exchanges. Complete and utter toss-up. Irene Aldana via decision.

Winner: Irene Aldana | Method: Decision

Sean O'Malley (-900 ) vs Kris Moutinho (+550)

O'Malley: DK: $9.5k, FD:$ |Moutinho: DK:$ 6.7k, FD:$

Sean O’Malley was originally scheduled to face veteran Louis Smolka. But Smolka dropped the fight, and now an Amazon employee is stepping in to face O’Malley during his thirty-minute lunch break. Kris Moutinho is making his UFC debut on short notice against one of the up-and-coming killers in the bantamweight division. If this isn’t a guaranteed finish, there’s no such thing. The only question is, will Mary Jane have enough time to get from my pad to Las Vegas in time to help O’Malley celebrate his TKO victory?

Somehow, someway, Moutinho isn’t a (+5000) underdog entering the fight. Instead, he’s a dubious (+550) dog. If you hate money or just have too much, throw some scratch on him. O’Malley has an Anthony Davis length injury history, and you never know if he’ll twist his ankle climbing the steps into the Octagon. Sean O’Malley via TKO, round one.

Winner: Sean O'Malley | Method: TKO Rd.1

Prelims

Highlighted Matchup

Ryan Hall (+185) vs. Ilia Topuria (-230)

Hall: DK: $7.1k, FD:$ | Topuria: DK: $9.1k, FD:$  

Ryan Hall is responsible for blowing out more knees than wet floors. Hall comes out looking like a shirtless solar panel salesman with a happy trail as long as the famous one in Oregon. Don’t let that fool you, there’s a reason very few fighters will agree to fight him, and he spent the last two years trying to find an opponent. When you fight Ryan Hall, you usually don’t fight again for at least twelve months—the average recovery time for ACL knee surgery. Hall’s finishing move is the heel hook. When you’re caught in a heel hook and realize it’s time to tap, it’s too late.

The Imanari roll, if you haven’t heard of it, you will by the end of this fight. It’s Ryan Hall’s go-to takedown technique. He rolls to his back and hooks the opponent’s lead leg with his arms, and pulls them down right into the heel hook submission. Before you realize what’s happening, you’re screaming, and then you’re tapping. Hall’s submission arsenal doesn’t consist solely of heel hooks, his overall submission game is world-class, and he’s a legit Gandolf from his back.

Hall has the most effective odd stand-up you’ll see. He’s very similar to Umar Nurmagomedov in that he throws kicks almost exclusively. While Umar likes to throw a variety of round kicks, Ryan Hall throws spinning wheel kicks like a traditional fighter throws a jab. And he lands them. In his last bout against Darren Elkins in 2019, Hall landed three spinning wheel kicks and only the hand of a supreme being held Elkins up until the final bell. There’s no one like Ryan Hall and nothing like his style, and he’s always fun to watch.

All you need to know about Ilia Topuria is that he agreed to fight Ryan Hall. Topuria also has elite-level wrestling/grappling, and barring an acknowledged stalemate between two grapplers to stand and bang for the duration, this could turn into a grappling firefight. Hall brings creative outside-the-box grappling, while Topuria brings a more power style of grappling to the cage.

Topuria has a Greco style, complete with suplexes and strong power double-legs punctuated with suffocating top control. He’s a submission over position grappler with little ground and pound implemented. Instead, he attacks submission after submission and strings them together like elite strikers do hand combinations. Throw up the W, Protect Ya Neck whenever you’re near Topuria. Ilia throws up chokes like he has Tourette’s, and it’s his tick. He’ll pursue chokes anywhere, from the clinch, from the top, from the bottom, and from your mammy’s house while wearing your pappy’s robe.

Topuria's stand-up is power-based, and in his last bout, he cracked Damon Jackson’s ass like the Liberty Bell with vicious liver shots and over-the-top right hands. He uses short basic combinations but commits and throws everything at one hundred percent. But he lacks the ability to throw fluid combinations and lacks footwork and head movement.

I’ve been thinking about this fight for weeks, and I still can’t call it. Both fighters have submission value, but Topuria should have an advantage on the feet if he closes the distance aggressively and doesn’t get stuck in no man’s land, eating spinning wheel kicks. If Hall struggles to get the fight to the mat, Topuria can play a more technical kickboxing match. Ilia Topuria via decision.

Winner: Ilia Topuria | Method: Decision

Fighter Spotlight

Michel Pereira (-165) DK: $8.9k

Michel Pereira howls at the moon; he’s wild for the night. He’s a cross between a Cirque du Soleil performer and Guile from Street Fighter. I say this every time Pereira fights, but if you’ve never seen Michel Pereira fight, stop right now and Google Tristan Connelly vs. Michel Pereira. Just watch the first round, and you’ll know all you need to know about Pereira. He came out doing an Olympic gymnastics floor routine complete with backflips and attacks off the cage. Pereira landed a rolling thunder kick that hurt Connelly, and he also successfully executed a backflip guard pass.

However, once the Ringling Brothers and Barnum and Bailey Circus act is over, he gasses hard and isn’t much of a threat except in spurts. He’s a lot like Yoel Romero in how he fights in short stretches. His hands aren’t plural. It’s just his right hand that he uses almost exclusively. He doesn’t throw combos or put punches together like a traditional boxer/kickboxer and is the definition of a one-punch striker who is long enough to stay on the outside and land shots from the parking lot. Pereira’s weakness is in the pocket; his punches are too long to get caught exchanging in close quarters. Michel also uses Capoeira movements to hypnotize opponents and lulls them into becoming spectators before exploding on them.

Pereira will be facing another wild mother-shut-your-mouth in Niko Price. The fight will be anything but a traditionally structured match with controlled back and forth exchanges. This will be a free form, unorthodox expression of violence. All four of Niko Price’s UFC losses have come via stoppage, and in thirty-six career bouts, Pereira has only been stopped twice. The value on Pereira is in an early finish, while Niko Price’s value is in a late finish. Don’t miss this one.

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

This will be a tough night for underdogs, but I'm rolling with Ryan Hall at (+185). He's a nightmare to fight, and the constant threat of the Imanari Roll into a heel hook submission forces fighters to stay at a distance that doesn't allow them to engage in their accustomed offense. Hall makes fights awkward and ugly, and Hall fights rarely have any kind of discernible rhythm. Ilia Topuria is the better all-around fighter, but it's highly unlikely he has ever face anyone like Ryan Hall.

Pick 'Em

Carlos Condit (+160 ) vs. Max Griffin (-200 )

Winner: Max Griffin

 Method: TKO Rd.3 

Niko Price (+135 ) vs. Michel Pereira (-165 )

Winner: Michel Pereira

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Trevin Giles (-105 ) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (-115)

Winner: Trevin Giles

 Method: Decision

Jennifer Maia (-200) vs. Jessica Eye (+160)

    Winner: Jennifer Maia

 Method: Decision

Omari Akhmedov (+135 ) vs. Brad Tavares (-165 )

    Winner: Brad Tavares

 Method: Decision

Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-360 ) vs. Jerome Rivera (+270 )

    Winner: Zhalgas Zhumagulov

 Method: Decision

Hu Yaozong (+115 ) vs. Alen Amedovski (-140 )

    Winner: Hu Yaozong

 Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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