We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko & Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

Robbie Lawler (-115 ) vs Nick Diaz (-105)

Lawler: DK: $8.3k | Diaz: DK:$7.9k

Don’t fall for the okie-doke; this is UFC 266 Lawler vs. Diaz 2. I was driving a Ford Escort, buying CDs at Circuit City every Tuesday the first time Robbie Lawler and Nick Diaz fought. Blockbuster, Hollywood Video, Radio Shack, Music Trader; all were still in existence in 2004. Those were the days of slipping and rolling and Philly Shell deflecting all the judgmental stares on your way through the beaded curtains at the back of the store just to rent UFC 13. It was character building the great Stephen King couldn’t compete with. You did it strictly for the love back in the day; you were willing to risk it all just to get your hands on the newest UFC or Pride PPV release.

2021 will be the year of the return of two all-time classics, Dune and Nick Diaz. In 2004, Nick Diaz showed early signs of partaking in the spice essence when he manifested prescient visions into reality by knocking out Robbie Lawler. Diaz went into that fight as a heavy underdog who everyone expected to get knocked out. Before the fight backstage, a reporter asked Nick how he thought the fight would go, and Diaz alluded to surprising everyone with a knockout of Robbie Lawler.

At the time, Lawler was a young hyena, prowling the plains of the Octagon, leaving behind devastation and pristine carcasses picked so clean carrion birds were threatened with extinction. He was 9-1 and could be credited with creating the plank challenge decades ahead of its time, with the prone bodies he left in his wake.

Diaz showed Lawler no respect in the cage in the first match, and it was the first time Lawler faced someone who wasn’t intimidated by him. Nick did what Nick does, taunted and clowned Lawler around the cage while peppering him with counter hooks and long left hands from outside the pocket. Diaz’s range management was perfection; from the opening bell, Diaz threatened Lawler with a lead check-hook every time Lawler came forward with power shots.

The KO that resulted from Nick’s perfectly placed check-right hook in the second round is iconic. Lawler went down face first, so you know he went out on his shield. It was a contest of power versus technique, and Nick’s superior technique prevailed that night. The main event for that card was Tito Ortiz vs. Chuck Liddell 1, and Lawler vs. Diaz was probably just as highly anticipated.

Ideally, this rematch would have happened at least a decade ago, and now the question for both fighters is, which version of them will we see. Nick's last fight was in 2015 when he was Randy Moss on the Vikings mooning Anderson Silva in the cage. That fight signaled the end of an era. It was the last time we saw Nick Diaz in the Octagon, and the last time we saw the vintage version of Anderson Silva.

The Direct T.V. Ruthless Robbie Lawler hasn’t shown up in his last four fights. Instead, Cable T.V. Passive Robbie Lawler has shown up in his stead for the last four years. Lawler’s last dub came against Donald Cerrone in 2017. But to Lawler’s credit, I don’t consider his loss to Ben Askren a real loss. Lawler handed out the most ass-whoopin’ anyone has ever delivered inside of a minute in UFC history. After power bombing Askren and pounding on him like Anthony Smith’s home invader, Askren caught Lawler in a bulldog choke. Lawler didn’t tap, but Herb Dean stopped the fight anyways.

These are two of my favorite fighters of all time, and all I can hope for is a classic cage war. Without being in Diaz’s training camp, it’s impossible to know what he'll look like after a six-year hiatus. The biggest reason Lawler has lost four in a row is his lack of output. He just doesn’t pull the trigger and hasn’t been the same since possibly the greatest title fight ever, when he beat Rory McDonald the second time. One thing you know about the Diaz brothers, they’re always training even when you don’t see them in the Octagon.

This is a rare non-main event/non-title fight five-round bout, and whom that will favor, I’m not sure. Rumor has it Nick’s camp wants to move the fight to middleweight just four days out. That might not be a good sign if it means Diaz is having trouble making weight. But even with all the uncertainties, what you can count on is Nick Diaz consistently moving forward and pushing the pace. And that will give him the edge in close rounds. Nick Diaz via decision.

Winner: Nick Diaz | Method: Decision

Co-Main Event

Brian Ortega (+145 ) vs Alexander Volkanovski (-175)

Ortega: DK: $7.6k | Volkanovski: DK:$8.6k

Alexander Volkanovski is the Kevin McCallister of the UFC, the forgotten child amongst all its champions. If you were at Baskin Robbins, he’d be the tub of plain vanilla in the corner of the freezer with only a single scoop disrupting his otherwise pristine surface. Volkanovski is like Ross lingerie, nothing sexy but gets the job done. He’s the personification of the west coast offense: not a whole lot of big plays, but, rather, small incremental plays that consistently matriculate the ball up the field. Whatever the method, you can’t argue with the results, a perfect 9-0 in the UFC and the title of reigning and defending Featherweight Champion.

Last July, Las Vegas PD identified Volkanovski from composite sketches taken from eyewitness testimony as a potential suspect in an armed robbery at a desolate Valero gas station in the middle of the Nevada desert. Volkanovski managed to avoid prosecution when the reported victim, Max Holloway, refused to press charges. Instead, Max went full John Wick, seeking revenge on those who did him wrong in hopes of forcing a third fight with Volkanovski if Volkansovski should get past Brian Ortega. To Volk’s credit, the second Max Holloway fight was a lot closer than people remember. Volkanovski had to survive two early knockdowns to battle back. The round in question was the third round, which I thought Max won. But I also think the Cowboys beat the Bucs in week one and are currently 2-0, so…

Alexander Volkanovski is the Featherweight Champion because his stand-up is fundamentally and technically sound. He builds his attacks from the ground up, starting with inside/outside leg kicks that he throws continually to open up his boxing. Fundamental kickboxing focuses on throwing hand combinations and punctuating them with kicks and vice versa. Volkanovski leads exchanges with low kicks, then throws short hand combinations and finishes with more low kicks. Basically, he bookends hand combinations with low kicks.

Volkanovski is one of the most defensively responsible fighters around. He slides into the pocket behind his jab, sets up his power hand with peppering kicks and jabs, and rarely gets caught with his hands down. Max was able to find a slim opening to capitalize on against Volkanovski, using a counter rear hand uppercut. It’s a high-level counter that few fighters have the timing and range management to land on a guy like Volkanovski. The uppercut is the most difficult strike to defend because it starts in your lower peripheral and can split the hand guard. Volk has a tendency to look down at the mat when he throws the right hand and hooks, and up the middle strikes are the perfect counter.

The keys against Brian Ortega will be pace and output. The biggest reason Volkanovski fell behind early in the second Max fight was that he was too passive. He fought outside too much and fell into a rhythm of attacking straight up the middle. Volkanovski won’t want to get caught on the outside against Ortega. That usually leads to one-punch attacks, and that plays perfectly into Ortega’s style. Despite Ortega’s ability as a grappler, this will be a predominant kickboxing match, and Volkanovski will have the advantage inside the pocket landing short combinations and damaging Ortega’s lead leg.

Volkanovski by the numbers: Volkanovski has a career record of 22-1 and is currently riding a nointeen fight-winning streak. He has eleven wins by TKO/KO and three by submission, and he is nearly one hundred pounds lighter than when he used to play Rugby weighing two hundred and forty pounds. And he’s five foot six inches tall, as was verified by the height strip on the security footage of Volkanovski entering the Valero last summer.

Once a troubled youth, Brian Ortega used Jiu-Jitsu as a conduit to turn his life around. He found an outlet for his aggression and anger at the Gracie University under head instructor Rener Gracie. The two quickly formed a dynamic duo whose cohesiveness is only rivaled by the modern-day Bonnie and Clyde, myself, and Mary Jane. Under Gracie’s tutelage, Ortega developed a treacherous guard and specializes in triangle and guillotine chokes.

Ortega uses guillotines as a multifaceted attack. From the clinch, he’ll climb up an opponent after snatching down the head, and it’s a wrap. He uses the guillotine to stuff takedowns, from the guard to finish or force scrambles, and he can use it to land knees when standing. But although Ortega is a grappling wizard, he lacks traditional takedowns. Before the Holloway fight, Ortega hadn’t recorded a takedown in five straight fights. He’s a world-class grappler who has fallen in love with his striking.

For the most part, Ortega is a boxer but mixes standing elbows into his traditional boxing combinations. When Ortega fought Holloway for the title, he held his own in the stand-up and landed big shots until the end, when he was finished in the fourth round. Max’s strikes caused more damage, and it came at a time when Ortega relied on boxing-style shoulder rolls and the Philly Shell as his primary defense. If you don’t know, the Philly Shell is the style of defense the Mayweather’s used to build a boxing empire. The Philly Shell is a more effective defense in boxing because the gloves provide a larger surface area to defend with than four-ounce MMA gloves do. Against Max, Ortega’s defense sprang leaks that Flex Seal couldn’t even fix; too many punches defeated his guard, and Ortega took heavy damage.

But in his most recent bout against the Korean Zombie, Ortega showed little reliance on the Philly Shell and operated out of a more traditional guard. Ortega used both stances in different ways; he used orthodox to attack and southpaw to counter with his lead hook and jab. From orthodox, Ortega found a home multiple times for the counter spinning back elbow off the Zombie’s jab. Ortega knocked down the Zombie in the third round, and he completely took over the fight from that point on.

T-City has major holes in his stand-up. Even in recent wins, he fell behind early in the striking, like against Renato Moicano and Cub Swanson. But he managed to win both fights by guillotine. Ortega doesn’t throw many combinations and relies on the big play as the main source of his offense. There’s usually a tide-turning knockdown at some point during an Ortega fight. Against Volkanovski, Ortega needs to control the range, and in a sense, that’s what this fight comes down to. Range. Higher output and controlling the pocket from the outside with short combinations are the keys for Ortega. Ortega should also commit to takedowns and make this an MMA fight and not relent to a traditional kickboxing match for five rounds.

Volkanovski is very comfortable standing and trading for twenty-five minutes. He is a point fighter, and Ortega doesn’t have enough output to beat Volkanovski at his own game. Ortega will have to take risks and mix in his grappling and submission attempts. I would look for Ortega to clinch against the cage and try to control the shorter Volkanovski’s head and threaten with guillotine chokes. He can use them either as submission attempts or as a means of getting the fight to the mat.

Ortega gives you the best chance of a finish. Volkanovski hasn’t finished an elite fighter, and I don’t think he has the power to sit Ortega down. The new main event winning streak has begun after Anthony Smith straight Wayne Brady’d Ryan Spann last weekend. I’m torn on this one. I can see Ortega locking up a guillotine at some point and can also see Volkanovski controlling enough of the rounds with output and outworking Ortega. Alexander Volkanovski via decision.

Winner: Alexander Volkanovski | Method: Decision

Lauren Murphy (+750) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (-1500)

Murphy: DK: $6.7k | Shevchenko: DK: $9.5k

There’s only on thing you can say about this matchup: Valentina Shevchenko via TKO, round two.

Winner: Valentina Shevchenko | Method: TKO Rd.2

Curtis Blaydes (-325 ) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+250 )

Blaydes: DK: $9.2k | Rozenstruik: DK: $7k

Jairzinho Rozenstruik is an anomaly. Ninety-eight percent of the time he spends in the cage is spent doing nothing. You have to put spikes on top of his head to keep pigeons from landing and littering his dome with droppings. But somehow, he is 12-2 with eleven TKO/KO’s, including 6-2 in the UFC with six TKO/KO’s.

The inexplicable thing about Rozenstruik’s passive style is that it works more often than not. There’s no hole deep enough that Bigi Boy’s Dim Mak touch of death can’t pull him out of. Allistair Overeem was on his way to an uncontested five-round touchdown when he turned into DeSean Jackson in the closing seconds against Rozenstruik. He appeared to spike the ball at the one-yard line before crossing the plane. The refs overturned the call, the touchdown was taken off the board, and The Reem was literally KO’d at the buzzer. Until that moment, Rozenstruik was relatively inactive for twenty-four minutes and fifty-five seconds.

Jairzinho was a highly accomplished kickboxer with a 76-8 record before transitioning to MMA. When all the stars in the Milky Way align, and Rozenstruik lets his strikes go, you can see his technical ability. He can put together crisp hand and kick combinations but stops to buffer for several minutes before throwing another strike. If he can’t find an early finish, Jairzinho’s extremely low output makes it difficult for him to win decisions against stiff competition.

Rozenstruik by the numbers: Noine of Rozenstruik’s twelve professional victories have come in the first round. Four of those noine were inside of thirty seconds, and two of those four were inside of ten seconds. He’s got Mega Man cannons in each hand and can probably KO any human on earth with one shot from either. Can he stay on his feet against a wrestler with excellent takedowns; that’s the question for Rozenstruik against Curtis Blaydes. Jairzinho will have to keep his back off the cage and use up the middle strikes to discourage level changes. Oh, and throw something, anything.

Curtis Blaydes is a solid fighter with an excellent record, but his style travels along the Corey Anderson spectrum. He has KO power in his right hand and has ten KO’s on his record, but he perpetuates wrestling-heavy game plans that don’t always result in fan-friendly action. It’s a winning formula that I can’t argue with; “You play to win the game,” said Herm Edwards, and he was right.

The winning game plan for Blaydes against anyone he faces is to stand only for as long as is necessary to shoot a double leg and secure a takedown. In his last bout, Blaydes dominated Derrick Lewis on the feet in the opening round but got lazy in the second. His strikes became repetitive and predictable, and he attempted a lazy takedown, bending over at the waist without the cover of distracting punches, and Lewis tucked him into bed with a counter uppercut.

If this were a five round fight, I’d pick Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win by late-round TKO. The chances of Blaydes getting Bigi Boy to the mat and keeping him there for twenty minutes are almost impossible. But for three rounds… those odds become a lot higher. Blaydes needs to spend every second trying to secure takedowns and focusing on changing levels and not getting lazy on his entries.

Who wins? No idea. Blaydes is a terrible style matchup for most fighters; his takedowns are just too dominant. But Rozenstruik can literally lose fourteen minutes of a fifteen-minute fight and still walk away with a KO victory. But check it; Jairzinho Rozenstruik is coming in as the massive (+250) underdog. And you already know, that's the odds range where the magic happens, when Jacksons turn into Grants right before your eyes. I might have to put the classic win-win into play: pick Curtis Blaydes to win and drop an Andy Jack on Rozenstruik. Curtis Blaydes via decision.

Winner: Curtis Blaydes | Method: Decision

Cynthia Calvillo (+210 ) vs Jessica Andrade (-265)

Calvillo: DK: $7.2k | Andrade: DK:$9k

Cynthia Calvillo has been a highly touted prospect since she made her UFC debut in 2017. She made a name for herself fighting out of Urijah Faber’s Team Alpha Male gym in Sacramento, CA. At 6-2-1 in the promotion, she recently made the jump up to flyweight after struggling to make the strawweight weight limit on multiple occasions. Calvillo’s major malfunction, her major boggle, is her lackluster, rather dull performances. Her performances have never compelled you to ascribe the adjectives savage, monster, or killer after her name.

Calvillo is technically sound and doesn’t have any major holes in her game, but she lacks respectable power and has starchy striking, no wrinkles. Wrestling/grappling are her strong suits, but her ground and pound isn’t damaging or consistent. Instead, she racks up significant strikes using dozens of peppering shots while hunting for submissions. Against Jessica Andrade, Calvillo will be at a power disadvantage anywhere the fight goes. Her best chance of scoring the upset is keeping the fight standing and keeping Andrade at the end of her punches from the outside. She has to attempt to staunch Jessica’s aggression with increased output and earn Andrade’s respect early.

The only woman at her weight I wouldn’t give Jessica Andrade a shot to beat is Valentina Shevchenko. And she didn’t beat Shevchenko when Andrade fought her back in April. Andrade can chalk that loss up as a life experience and keep it moving. No one is going to beat Shevchenko at flyweight for a long time.

Andrade showed a new style in her last three bouts, carrying her hands low and bobbing and weaving her way into the pocket like a tiny Mike Tyson. Once she’s in the pocket, she unloads bombs. Andrade could legitimately KO most people reading this, me included. Her aggression on the feet often overwhelms fighters, like when she fought the champ, Rose Namajunas, the second time. Andrade got off to a slow start but completely took over the second half of the fight, landing heavy hooks that busted Rose open. Rose had to survive to the final bell. Had it been a five-round main event, Rose would have been in serious trouble.

Andrade does have a victory over Rose; she won the strawweight belt after slamming Rose on her head. Andrade has world-class all-around skill and can dominate this fight on the feet or on the mat. The question is, can Andrade finish Calvillo, who has yet to be finished in her eleven-fight career? I say yes. Jessica Andrade via TKO, round three. On wax.

Winner: Jessica Andrade | Method: TKO Rd.3

Prelims

Highlighted Matchup

Marlon Moraes (+200) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (-250)

Moraes: DK: $7.3k | Dvalishvili: DK: $8.9k

Last December, Rob Font strapped on his gasoline boots, fully outfitted in flame retardant turnout gear, expecting to have to walk through hell against Marlon Moraes. But Font wound up looking ridiculous while taking a stroll on a white sandy beach just before sunset. Font came out as a medieval script, flowing and intricate, and walked right through Moraes in the first round. And if Jose Aldo had stopped in Bakersfield for gas before his fight against Moraes, he wouldn’t have had to stop at the lone Valero in the middle of the Nevada Desert where he was subsequently robbed of a dub against Moraes. Without the gift victory against Aldo, Marlon Moraes would be rocking a four-fight losing streak like he won outfit of the night at the Met Gala. Instead, he’s 1-3 in his last four fights and riding a two-fight losing streak.

The knock against Moraes has been his Tesla gas tank. It has turned him into a Toyota Frontrunner, a Missy Elliot one-minute man, a two-pump chump, and a plaza-level world champion. Moraes dominated the Triple Champ, Henry Cejudo, in the first round of their title fight, before fading in the second and getting TKO'd in the third. It was a similar story for Moraes against Rob Font and Jose Aldo. To Marlon's credit, he attempted to switch his style against Cory Sandhagen and came out much less aggressive, actually pacing himself for the first time in his career. It didn’t work. Turns out Moraes is at his best when he disables the speed governor and redlines it early in a fight, building enough momentum to roll through the finish line in neutral.

Moraes is all speed and power in his hands and kicks, and he will have a massive stand-up advantage against Merab Dvalishvili, at least early. Merab weaponizes his cardio. After the first round, Dvalishvili will be Moraes’s kryptonite, relentlessly pressuring and attempting takedowns. Merab will push a pace, unlike anything the thirty-two-fight veteran Marlon Moraes has ever experienced.

If you’ve never seen Merab fight, you should stop right now and DuckDuckGo his fight against Ricky Simon. He technically lost that fight but fought off a guillotine choke until the buzzer for what seemed like the entire round. Dvalishvili lost his first two UFC fights and has since strung together six straight wins.

In his fight against Casey Kenney, Merab set the Bantamweight record with twelve takedowns in a fight. He went on to break his own record in his next bout against Gustavo Lopez with thirteen takedowns. Relentless, perpetual, kinetic, that’s Merab’s style. From bell to bell, Merab is attacking, shooting double and single legs, initiating constant scrambles, delivering heavy ground and pound, and throwing power punches in bunches on the feet.

The constant threat of takedowns lends to the effectiveness of his standup game. He’s not the most technical striker, but he commits to his strikes and strings them together with good hand speed. You will never see a fighter push a higher pace than Dvalishvili; you’ll be gassed, begging for grandpappy’s oxygen mask just watching him fight.

For some reason, I thought Dvalishvili was the big underdog in this one. Once the smoke cleared and I got a clear look at my screen, I realized Marlon Moraes is the dog. At (+200), a guy with the speed and power and technical stand-up that Moraes has is always a steal. The value for Moraes is in an early finish on the feet, and the value for Merab is in takedowns and significant strikes from the top. If Merab can avoid Marlon’s leg kicks and survive the first round, Merab can push a pace Moraes can’t hang with for fifteen minutes. I’m gonna roll the dice on this one; come on, daddy needs a new pair of chonclas. Merab Dvalishvili via decision.

Winner: Merab Dvalishvili | Method: Decision

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

Jairzinho Rozenstruik will be entering the cage as the (+250) underdog, and you already know what time it is. I’ll be cutting a Mr. Jackson in half like a 1920s magic trick and dropping a Hamilton on Rozenstruik and the other on Marlon Moraes at (+200). If you’re new to the Weekly Knockout, welcome to the greatest MMA breakdown on earth. I’m a budget gambler and only drop Andrew Jackson's, aka a twenty-twen-twens, on underdogs with a clear path to victory and a real shot at winning the fight. The (+200) to (+250) odds range is my sweet spot, and at the higher end, around (+250), you can turn an Andrew Jackson into a Ulysses S. Grant inside of fifteen to twenty-five minutes.

Honorable mention: Brian Ortega. At (+145), Ortega’s value is higher than I am right meow. He can finish the fight on the feet and on the mat with a submission. This is closer to a pick ‘em bout to me, and Ortega has the best chance to finish the fight before the final bell.

Pick 'Em

Nasrat Haqparast (+120 ) vs. Dan Hooker (-145 )

Winner: Dan Hooker

 Method: Decision 

Shamil Abdurakhimov (+105 ) vs. Chris Daukaus (-125 )

Winner: Chris Daukaus

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Roxanne Modafferi (+300 ) vs. Taila Santos (-400)

Winner: Taila Santos

 Method: Decision

Uros Medic (-125 ) vs. Jalin Turner (+105 )

    Winner: Uros Medic

 Method: TKO Rd.3

Cody Brundage (-115 ) vs. Nick Maximov (-105 )

    Winner: Nick Maximov

 Method: Decision

Martin Sano (+380 ) vs. Matthew Semelsberger (-550 )

    Winner: Matthew Semelsberger

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Jonathan Pearce (+130 ) vs. Omar Morales (-155 )

    Winner: Omar Morales

 Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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