We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko & Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

Main Card

Robert Whittaker (+230 ) vs Israel Adesanya (-290)

Whittaker: DK: $7k | Stylebender: DK:$9.2k

Walk with me; just around the corner is Memory Lane. A quarter-mile down, we’ll find Robert Whittaker’s middleweight title belt, ravished by the elements, its gold plating sun-faded and peeling and left in a heap like a rusted-out jalopy in the front yard of the Marsten House. The championship dreams are said to have come to rest somewhere in the backyard, but no one dares to peek over the fence like Wilson.

Just beyond the general store are the crossroads where all former champions question if they still have it. It’s downhill from there, but eventually, across from the old elementary school, is where Whittaker found his mojo after the Darren Till fight.

We’ll hit a steep incline beyond that; the Jared Cannonier and Kelvin Gastelum fight serve as scenic viewpoints at the top of what locals call Redemption Hill.

Memory Lane continues past the upcoming rematch with the Champ, Israel Adesanya, into blackness, the shaded terrain of Robert Whittaker’s level map. It’s only speculation what new developments have been proposed to the zoning committee.

A win on Saturday night will expedite discussions of a Hall of Fame shrine in Whittaker's honor. Maybe they’ll finally clean up the Marsten house, too, and with it, the bitter memories of defeat. Better yet, maybe it’s best to hold on to those and treasure them like priceless heirlooms. Under the right circumstances, nothing is more valuable than failure.

Becoming a Two-Time Champion is the only thing harder than becoming a Champion. The amount of courage it takes to continue blindly in the face of the unknown is diminished only by the amount required knowing the obstacles that stand in your way and deciding to make the arduous journey anyway, for a second time.

So where did it go wrong for Robert Whittaker in his first showdown with The Last Stylebender? Whittaker was dethroned by range, the inability to cover distance safely using his usually reliable explosiveness. Lateral movement is a staple of Whittaker’s game, but footwork in and out of the pocket isn’t. He relies on speed and odd arm angles to cover distance and land looping punches but consistently came up short against Adesanya. Israel’s ability to slide out of range with counter hooks thwarted Whittaker’s forward pressure for the entire duration. Whittaker’s strikes got too loopy, too desperate, often reaching to make up those last couple of inches, and he paid the price.

In the second round, Adesanya caught Whittaker with an off-balance short right hand as Whittaker leaped into the pocket behind a wide hook. This time around, Whittaker will need to straighten out his punches and use choppy footwork behind multiple jabs to close the distance. He has to look to draw Adesanya forward instead of allowing him to sit back and counter.

But the biggest adjustment Whittaker needs to make is mixing in wrestling. Although Jan Blachowicz had a size advantage on Adesanya that Whittaker won't have, he also laid a blueprint for neutralizing Adesanya’s striking by keeping him on the mat. Adesanya showed improved wrestling against Marvin Vittori in his last bout, but Vettori doesn’t pose the same danger on the feet needed to set up takedowns that Whittaker does. Whittaker is very slick at transitioning to takedowns off hand combinations. It’s the most underrated part of Whittaker’s game. Make this an MMA; that’s the key for Whittaker.

There are two legitimate… no, check that, there are three legitimate threats to Israel Adesanya’s middleweight title: Robert Whittaker, Alex Pereira (holds two kickboxing wins against Adesanya), and I almost forgot, Khamzat Chimaev. Pereira has the length and prowess to go toe to toe with Adesanya on the feet, as we’ve seen before, and Chimaev’s wrestling is a level Adesanya has never been in the same gym with. Robert Whittaker has the all-around game to make this an ugly fight like Kelvin Gastelum did when Adesanya won a dogfight to win the belt.

Stylebender is a master manipulator, often leaving behind bitter, disgruntled dancing partners in his sociopathic wake. Nobody manipulates range the way Adesanya does. His movements are slight, calculated, and allow him to strike from a secure high ground out of range of his opponents. Israel uses both stances naturally and can strike while moving in any direction but is especially dangerous while moving backward. He can lean back and pull his head out of range while firing off short counter hooks. Ironically, this is also the time when Adesanya is the most vulnerable on his feet. His chin tends to stick straight up in the air, and it’s the only time you’ll catch Izzy off balance. Go back to that first fight with Whittaker, and you’ll see Whittaker just barely missing Izzy’s chin on several occasions as Izzy pull-countered while sliding out of the pocket. Extending combinations against a fighter who likes to use “pulls” to defend is the key to catching them when they think they’re safe.

The key for Izzy this time around will be anticipating Whittaker’s wrestling and having a game plan if he does end up on his back. The critique I always have for Adesanya is output. He tends to take his foot off the gas or coast from the onset. He needs to make Whittaker earn every inch as Adesanya did in the first fight. Instead of relying solely on counter-punching, Izzy should use volume to defend the middle ground. Make Whittaker navigate through a field of landmines to get within striking or shooting range.

Many left me for dead; I haven’t forgotten, and I never will. Six straight main event L’s, and you really find out who your friends are in this Fantasy/Pick ‘Em game. They left me, ball gagged and hogtied, locked in an austere Valero restroom in the middle of the Nevada desert. But a funny thing happened; I tapped danced in the cement shoes they placed on my feet; I spread my wings as I plummeted from the cliff they threw me off of and eclipsed the sun, a Phoenix raised again. Last week, Sean Strickland staunched the bleeding and notched a much-needed main event dub. A new main event-winning streak is now on the line. Israel Adesanya via decision. On wax.

Winner: Israel Adesanya | Method: Decision

Tai Tuivasa (+150 ) vs. Derrick Lewis (-185 )

Tuivasa: DK: $7.4k | Lewis: DK: $8.8k

A second hand unconsciousness red alert threat will be in effect during Tai Tuivasa vs. Derrick Lewis. Like AED shock pads at a Travis Scott concert, paramedics will have the sleep apnea machines on standby during this one. Other than time travel, this fight going the distance is the only impossibility on earth. And getting out of the first round is a near impossibility.

Tai Tuivasa would make the worst poker player of all time; he’d go all-in on every hand and lose the house, the dog, and his two-lane-streaked chonies. He’s a power puncher with a kill-or-be-killed approach and doesn’t waste much energy defending strikes or defending much of anything; he won't even clap back if you hit him with a "your mama" joke. A dogfight, that’s what Tuivasa wants to engage in and is willing to play the odds that he’ll land the fight-ender first.

Tuivasa has consistently gotten better over his last four fights. He’s had a wild UFC career so far, starting 3-0 and then going 0-3. But, he’s currently riding a four-fight winning streak, and all have ended by TKO/KO, with only one making it twenty-six seconds into the second round. Two fights ago, Tuivasa signed up as an extra for the remake of the movie Backdraft and quickly became a competent method actor by getting into a firefight with Greg Hardy. For a brief moment, Tuivasa looked like he was serving milkshakes on skates at a Sonic drive-in. But as he was stumbling backward, he regained his wits enough to drop a nasty one-two on Hardy, and we haven’t seen Hardy since.

Here we are again, Mr. Lewis. Less than two months removed from picking Chris Daukaus to beat him, I get a chance at redemption. But, let it be known, I put my money where my mouth wasn’t and dropped some scratch on my man Derrick Lewis that night. Lewis was the slight (+110) underdog, and I originally made my pick thinking Daukaus would be a heavy underdog. Unfortunately, no one can get Lewis at plus money this time, as he is currently the (-200) favorite.

The Black Beast has fought everybody in the heavyweight division except Stipe Miocic. Go take a quick look at Derrick’s resume; you see all those KOs? Derrick Lewis’s UFC resume is Ralph Wiggum stupid; you get sleepy just reading all those TKO/KO’s. In twenty-six career wins, Lewis has finished twenty-two fights. The only real dud on his resume was a win against the current Champ, Francis Ngannou. That was a three-round snoozer in a bad way, not hit-him-with-the-smelling-salt snoozer, but get homie a bah-bah and rock him gently type of snoozer. But, a win against Tuivasa all but locks up a second fight with Francis, and I’ll put it on wax right meow; there’s zero chance the second fight will be anything like the first.

Have one of these guys on your roster. Tuivasa is a long shot, but you can count on him putting himself in a position to win... or lose. Count on Tuivasa risking an L to snatch a dub. With high risks come high rewards, and Tuivasa would also enter the title talks with a win against Lewis. But Lewis is just too experienced and has underrated speed and agility. Lewis can kick you in the head in the blink of an eye, and you would think there’s no way he can get his leg that high. Derrick Lewis via TKO, round one.

Winner: Derrick Lewis | Method: TKO Rd.1

Jared Cannonier (-180 ) vs. Derek Brunson (+150 )

Cannonier: DK: $8.6k | Brunson: DK: $7.6k

This fight represents another shot at redemption for me. Three times on this here newsletter, I’ve picked against Derek Brunson, and all three times, he handed me an L. It’s really not my fault, though. Brunson’s stand-up scares me away from picking him every time. Although he has power in his left hand and left round kick, he lacks technical ability on the feet. He throws heavy, wild single shots with the sole intent of closing the distance to work takedowns. In almost every Brunson fight, there’s a moment when Brunson looks shook on the feet and a punch or two away from going mimi’s; Mimi’s café with those bomb muffins they serve before your meal.

The key to Brunson’s success is his specialty, a secret move that’s not a secret but that no one can stop. When Brunson gets a fighter against the cage, level changes, and locks his hands underneath the butt, it’s a wrap. They’re going for a ride, and they’re gonna have a bad time. The takedown is unstoppable when he locks his hands together, and it’s close to impossible getting back to your feet with Brunson on top of you.

Brunson’s ground and pound is a throwback to the early Mark Coleman and Tito Ortiz days. He grinds you out with heavy punches and elbows and pushes a punishing pace. You see the thousand-yard stare on every opponent’s face, the universal look of panic, almost every time Brunson gets someone to the mat. It’s elementary from that point on.

There is nothing different for Brunson in this fight against Jared Cannonier. Once again, he’ll be at a big disadvantage technically on the feet, and he’ll be at a big advantage on the mat. Brunson is coming off a three-round drubbing of Darren Till and has finished two of his last three fights. Derek’s method of finish is TKO’s from the top position with the occasional choke submission after heavy ground and pound.

Jared Cannonier started his career with the UFC in the heavyweight division. He was undersized and went on the don’t-eat-so-much diet, dropping to light heavyweight not long after. He beat Ion Cutelaba but lost to Glover Teixeira and Daniel Reyes. It was back to the diet board, and he dropped to middleweight, where he’s won four of his five fights.

A reserved power puncher with clean, short combos, Cannonier can KO anyone in the division. He won’t overextend himself and get caught out of place and doesn’t take many risks. But he doesn’t need to. He has three TKO victories in his last five fights but didn’t tally more than twenty-eight significant strikes. He won’t wow you with volume or aggression, his output is closer to a Jairzinho Rozenstruik’s than a Max Holloway’s, but he ends fights suddenly.

Cannonier likes to fight out of both stances but is severely limited when he’s in the southpaw stance. He almost exclusively throws kicks from southpaw and rarely opens up with his hands. It’s like banging on trashcans in the dugout to relay the catcher’s signs to the batter, a huge tip-off. Cannonier is a Milli Vanilli southpaw, fakes the funk, and against Brunson, it could be a liability when it comes to defending takedowns. I would limit the southpaw stance if I were Cannonier because telegraphed kicks lead to being taken down.

I just checked the early odds, and I thought Brunson would be the favorite, but once again, you can get Brunson at plus money at (+150). I’m not making the same mistake four times in a row. Cannonier has solid takedown defense, and I’m worried Brunson could struggle to relocate the fight. A fifteen-minute kickboxing match will end with Cannonier getting his hand raised. But that damn Brunson butt-lock move has stood the test of time. Derek Brunson via decision.

Winner: Derek Brunson | Method: Decision

Marcelo Rojo (+310 ) vs. Kyler Philips (-400 )

Rojo: DK: $6.8k | Philips: DK: $9.4k

This is a cot damn banger. Marcelo Rojo is a guy most known for his weird-ass post-fight celebration. Homie turns into a baby dinosaur, like a Barney with rabies, and runs around the cage like he’s on display at Jurassic Park. I think he’s going for a Raptor, and the celebration is the only reason I want to see him win by some form of finish.

Rojo made his way to the UFC via South America’s premier promotion, Combate Americas, similar to the Middle East’s Brave CF promotion producing plug-and-play fighters ready to compete at the UFC level. When you see fighters debuting from these promotions, you know they have relevant fight experience. Rojo drew the killer Charles Jourdain in his debut last year and was highly competitive until the final round when Jourdain took over with extreme aggression and overwhelmed Rojo with volume on the way to a TKO stoppage.

Rojo has aggressive Brazillian Muay Thai with heavy kicks and powerful short hooks. He uses a sneaky step-in right hook out of the orthodox stance, which is a clever way to close distance deceptively, and he goes to the body consistently throughout the fight with same-side liver/head combinations. Rojo operates within boxing range and likes to punctuate hand combinations with clinch-knees.

Kyler Phillips was one of my top 2020 undercover sleepers, making his debut and going 2-0 before beating Yadong Song in a big upset in early 2021. Phillips is unpredictable and aggressive on the feet, regularly using spinning and flying attacks in combination with smooth, loose boxing. He has the ground game to match, slick grappling with heavy ground and pound. Kyler can beat you wherever the fight goes and has the added advantage of deciding where that is.

Phillips has a unique approach to scoring takedowns. At times Philips won’t waste much energy attempting to hold the opponent down and will let him back up so he can take him down again. He doesn’t give up on takedowns and will run opponents across the cage to finish them. If you have any holes in your game, Kyler Phillips will find them and exploit them like a Joe Rogan hit piece.

The red flag for Philips is his cardio. In his most recent bout, Philips all but finished Raulian Paiva in the first round, but he didn’t and was a hollow Coachella hologram version of himself for the rest of the fight. This dude is flashy and technical and has high output, but he has no idea how to pace himself. I think this fight could look a lot like the Paiva fight; Philips out-classing Rojo on the feet early and limping to the finish line, giving Rojo a real shot to steal it late. These two will score solid significant strike numbers, but Philips gives you the added takedown points, but not so much top control time. On wax, Kyler Philips via decision.

Winner: Kyler Philips  | Method: Decision

Nasrat Haqparast (+115 ) vs Bobby "King" Green (-140 )

Haqparast: DK: $7.8k | Green: DK:$8.4k

Nasrat is Shavkat’s wingman at the Ramada Inn Furry Conventions. The two met at a continental breakfast in Preston, Idaho, and have been globetrotting to every Extended Stay America, HoJo, and Snooty Fox like the Wedding Crashers ever since. One half of the duo, Shavkat, scored a big victory last weekend, and Nasrat will be looking to make the dynamic Furry duet two and oh in 2022.

The problem for Nasrat Haqparast is he’s facing my favorite fighter, Bobby “King” Green. King Green’s style is impetuous, his defense is impregnable, and he’s just ferocious. He strikes naturally from both stances and can flow back and forth mid-exchange. There’s no such thing as a boring Bobby Green fight, and win or lose, he goes out on his shield. He tends to get into firefights, and the only knock against him is sometimes he gets outworked and loses close rounds.

No fighter—not even Angela Hill—has been held up at gunpoint by the judges at the infamous Nevada desert Valero more times than Bobby Green. Two fights ago, after swooping some taquitos from a roach coach, Green had to make an emergency stop after the Rafael Fiziev fight. On cue, the judges caught Green with his pants down in the stall and shook him down for his dub. Green was Wayne Brady’ing Fiziev in the third round, an easy 10-8 round, but somehow one judge scored the round for Fiziev. Had the fight been scheduled for five rounds, Green would have finished Fiziev in the fourth.

Green also has underrated wrestling and is difficult to take down, and I don’t see any position Nasrat can beat Bobby Green. Nasrat has fight-changing power in his looping overhand left and round kick, but technically, Bobby Green is playing on All-Madden mode while Nasrat is taking the tutorial. Haqparast can work his wrestling and has slick grappling and a strong top game, but Green may be better on the mat too. You just don't get to see Bobby Green's grappling very often because he's always engaged in stand-up wars.

Nasrat is coming off a one-sided loss to Dan Hooker and is overall 5-3 in the UFC. There’s some long-shot value on Haqparast if you’re in a pinch, but for the most part, I expect Green to be a step ahead all night. Bobby Green is coming off a one-round masterclass performance against Al Iaquinta, a fight in which Green snapped a fifteen-fight non-finishing streak with a Mortal Kombat flawless victory. Let’s make it two in a row; Bobby Green via TKO, round three.

Winner: Bobby Green | Method: TKO Rd.3

Prelims

Highlighted Matchup

Mike Mathetha (+185) vs Jeremiah Wells (-230 )

Blood Diamond: DK: $7.1k | Wells: DK:$9.1k

I don’t know much about these guys, but this is a banger to start the card. Mike Mathetha trains out of Israel Adesanya’s camp and has professional kickboxing experience, including having fought for the Glory Kickboxing promotion. He is only 3-0 in professional MMA so little is known about his overall game other than he has a strong kickboxing base. Oh, and his nickname is Blood Diamond, which will easily crack the top ten best nicknames in the sport.

Jeremiah Wells is 1-0 in the UFC but scored a massive second-round TKO against the super veteran Warlley Alves. He’s a lunchroom brawler who throws nothing but windmill haymakers on the feet and has powerful wrestling. He lacks technique in all areas but makes up for it with speed, power, and aggression in all areas. This guy will have you called to the light by a couple of kids messing around with a Ouija board real quick. Or staring out at a filthy bathroom with pristine hand towels and a couple of kids twirling around repeating your name like Candyman.

Overall, Jeremiah is the better all-around fighter and has more ways to win the fight. But this should be all Fourth of July fireworks for the likely short duration. Jeremiah Wells via TKO, round two.

Winner: Jeremiah Wells | Method: TKO Rd.2

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

So, can Whittaker pull off the upset at (+230)? He's nearing that magical Jackson-to-Grant range, and there is a path to victory for Whittaker, albeit a little overgrown and treacherous. If Whittaker can mix in takedowns, successful or not, and make Izzy defend them, it will help Whittaker find his range better than he did the first meeting. Inches; Whittaker was off by inches the first time, and a few adjustments can make up for them.

Derek Brunson at plus money against a striker is always a good look. We'll know in the opening minutes if Brunson is going to win the fight based on how and if he is able to get Cannonier to the mat. Every time I doubt Brunson, he proves me wrong; his only losses in the UFCf are to elite competition: Israel Adesanya, Robert Whittaker, Jacare, and Anderson Silva (which was a Valero robbery).

Longshots: An undersized William Knight at (+150) against Mashin Grishin always has the power in his hands to end any fight instantly, but the key against Grishin will be staying on his feet. Knight also likes to wrestle, but his path to victory in this one is on the feet.

Also, take a look at Alexander Hernandez at (+150) against Renato Moicano. Hernandez's career has been a mixed bag of promise and disappointment after entering the UFC with a first-round KO of Beneil Dariush. He has all the tools to hang with the best but hasn't been able to match his mental game to his physical attributes. Moicano has been around the block and taken heavy damage over his career. If he gets drawn into a firefight, Hernandez can drop the whammy.

Pick 'Em

Jared Vanderaa (+125 ) vs. Andrei Arlovski (-145 )

Winner: Arlovski

 Method: Decision

Roxanne Modafferi (+290 ) vs. Casey O'Neill (-380 )

Winner: Casey O'Neill

 Method: TKO Rd.3

William Knight (+150 ) vs. Maxim Grishin (-170 )

    Winner: Maxim Grishin

 Method: Decision

Mana Martinez (+240) vs. Ronnie "The Limo Driver" Lawrence (-305 )

    Winner: Ronnie Lawrence

 Method: Decision

Alexander Hernandez (+150 ) vs. Renato Moicano (-170 )

    Winner: Renato Moicano

 Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Carlos Ulberg (-235) vs. Fabio Cherant (+190 )

    Winner: Carlos Ulberg

 Method: TKO Rd.2

AJ Dobson ( ) vs. Jacob Malkoun ( )

    Winner: AJ Dobson

 Method: TKO Rd.1

Douglas Andrade (+175 ) vs. Sergey Morozov (-210 )

    Winner: Sergey Morozov

 Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning