We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko & Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

No regerts.  

None.  

Even in tank tops, we wear our hearts on our sleeves.  

Exposed, open for the world to see, no fear pumps through them.  

Never has.   

They’re bigger, stronger than most, arteries six-lane highways; no risk of stroke, luck, or otherwise.  

She never shows up.  

Never has.   

We stopped depending on her before we even started.   

Trust issues.  

Atheists, we only believe in ourselves.  

We stick to the shadows to shroud the scars the limelight stings.  

Battles, fought with every step.  

GPS, no alternative routes.  

But, we know where we’re headed; we’ve been there before.  

In dreams.  

That weren't.  

A glimpse of the future, things to come.  

Bobby “King” Green will be back; I’ll be back.  

We’ll be back.  

Drop a twenty-twen-twen on it right meow.   

Main Card

Colby Covington (-320 ) vs Jorge Masvidal (+250)

Covington: DK: $9.4k | Masvidal: DK:$6.8k

It’s not funny, blowing a funny fuse.  Do you like fish sticks?  Nope, nothing.  Not even the funniest joke of all time could coax a smile out of me after Colby Covington’s jaw snapped in the first Kamaru Usman fight.  Don’t worry, I’ve since recovered.  It took Lakers fans pretending they won a real actual chip in a bubble to bring me back.  Just one day, I found myself rolling around on my Tyron Woodley bearskin rug worked into a rich lather as they hung a banner in the old Staples Center.

That being said, there are few fighters in this sport I respect more than Colby Covington.  Say what you say like Em and Dre, but Colby Covington is a savage with elephantiasis of the heart.  Both the Kamaru Usman fights proved you can’t break Colby Covington.  Quitting never even steps foot on his block, no soliciting.   Try McGregor St.

This Saturday, we will witness a true grudge match.  Jorge Masvidal and Colby Covington were roommates while training at American Top Team.  Colby used to be the guy on the couch, waking up from daylong naps only when Mary Jane was around and bumping her gums.  The two had a falling out over who was supposed to stack the Sega Genesis cartridges against the wall, and this fight has been an inevitable scenario ever since.

In almost every fight, Covington’s advantage is twofold: pace and fight IQ.  Above everything, Colby fights smart, avoiding the opponent’s strengths and never forgetting his wrestling.  The Usman fights were the exception; even though he was the first fighter to take Usman down late in the second fight, he never fully committed to wrestling.  Against Masvidal, I expect Covington to execute an old-school Colby Covington wrestling-heavy game plan.  He’s smart enough not to let all the prefight yip yapping infect his ego and get coaxed into a stand-up firefight.

That doesn’t mean Colby can’t stand and bang with Jorge if he can’t get Jorge to the mat.  Masvidal’s takedown defense and overall wrestling/grappling are highly underrated, and it’s not a given that Colby will consistently score takedowns, at least not early.  I expect Covington to rely on his hands a little more early and his wrestling late when Masvidal tends to fade.

On the feet, Colby is a combination striker with sneaky power.  In each of the Usman fights, Colby hurt Usman multiple times, and in the second fight, Usman barely held on to a 28-3 halftime lead by the skin of his ass.  Covington’s competence on the feet makes his wrestling flow naturally into his game plan because Colby is never desperate for takedowns.  However, the technical and speed advantage on the feet will belong to Street Jesus.

Jorge has been baptizing and sign-of-the-cross-blessing people in and outside of the cage since way back when I used to train.  I remember first seeing Jorge fight on Bodog Fights in Russia.  Only the truest MMA OG’s remember Bodog fights.  My love for Jorge Masvidal is similar to my love for Bobby Green.  I’ve been watching them both get slept on for over a decade until recently.  

Jorge Masvidal has always had some of the most underrated hands in the UFC.  His hand speed caused Kamaru Usman all kinds of problems in the first fight.  Much like Bobby Green, Masvidal uses stance switches mid combination and is never out of position.  Masvidal’s special move is a switch-step right hook from the orthodox stance.  His feet switch stances so quickly it looks like he’s briefly running in place, creating a misdirection that turns his power hand into his lead hand and is a sneaky way to close the distance.

If I were in Masvidal’s corner, I’d try to quick-play this fight and look to overwhelm Colby in the early rounds with speed and volume.  A five-round fight heavily favors the pace and cardio of Colby Covington.  Colby will look to slow play and wear down Masvidal by making Masvidal defend takedowns and get back to his feet.  An underrated aspect of Masvidal’s stand-up is his kicks.  He’s good at throwing them behind his hands, making it difficult for wrestlers to catch and use them to initiate takedowns.  Jorge should attack Colby’s lead leg behind quick combinations to take some effectiveness away from Colby’s takedowns.

This is one of my most anticipated fights of the year; there’s nothing better than a fight between two people who hate each other for really real.  I think both fighters have paths to a finish: Jorge’s will be on the feet early, and Colby’s will be on the mat late.  Masvidal is coming in as a massive (+270) dog and is dripping with value.  The main event-winning streak came to an abrupt end at the hands of Khabib Lite, Islam Makhachev last week.  The next time I talk about Makhachev, I’ll be picking him to win the lightweight belt.  But, at the end of the day, when it’s all said and done, I think Colby’s pace and wrestling will be the difference in this one.  On wax, Colby Covington via decision.

Winner: Colby Covington | Method: Decision

Renato Moicano (+140 ) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (-175)

Moicano: DK: $7.2 k | Dos Anjos: DK: $7.3k

Hemingway, Herbert, Dumas, King, Tolkien: I heard the whispers.  My previous composition, the technical breakdown of Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Rafael Fiziev, was destined to be spoken of amongst the greatest pieces of literature ever written.  But misfortune—a jealous sancha if there ever was one—has ordered it locked away, hidden from the omnipotence of history, my purple tape.  My unreleased classic trunk piece, sure to unite humanity along a common front of peace and love, will gather dust, the grain of time.

There’s good news for Rafael Dos Anjos, though; he remains on the card and will go from taking an L on Saturday to taking a dub.  Oh, and he avoided Islam Makhachev, who offered to step in on short notice.  Oh-oh, and he avoided a rematch with Tony Ferguson, an L back in 2016.  It’s a shame for Rafael Fiziev that the UFC doesn’t implement the same Covid prevention protocols the NFL used when the playoffs started.  Oh well.

In steps Renato Moicano on a two-fight win streak, coming off a second-round submission dub over Alexander Hernandez just a couple of weeks ago.  Notable fight conditions: The fight will be at a catchweight of 160 lbs. and is apparently scheduled for five rounds.   

Moicano’s striking reminds me a lot of Charles Oliveira's, long straight, tight punches with an upright Muay Thai posture.  He’s formidable on the feet but won’t wow you with footwork and creative combinations.  I had no idea in twenty career fights, Moicano, has never finished a fight via TKO/KO; he’s 16-4 with noine wins by submission.  He’s a choker, no, not a Dallas Cowboy; he has a bunch of wins by way of rear-naked choke.

Renato’s path to victory will likely be on the mat, securing top position while trying to defend Dos Anjos’s desire to do the same.  On the feet, Moicano will have to defend Dos Anjos’s left round kick to the body and inside lead leg.  Along with Rafael Fiziev, Dos Anjos has some of the heaviest kicks in the lightweight division, and they are a huge part of his stand-up.  His kicks bring the guard down and allow Dos Anjos to open up with his hands.  Renato has to control distance and be either all in or all out of the pocket.  He can’t get stuck in striking purgatory eating heavy kicks.

Rafael Dos Anjos is on his second stint in the lightweight division after going 4-4 as a welterweight.  He returned to lightweight in 2020 against Paul Felder but hasn’t fought since and even had a fight against Islam Makhachev fall through.  Dos Anjos is on the fringe of title contention, and a win over Rafael Fiziev would have looked good on his resume, but I’m not sure a win against Moicano does much to bolster it.

Anywho, Dos Anjos made his UFC debut in 2008 and briefly held the lightweight belt after beating Anthony Pettis.  Over the years, Dos Anjos has developed a heavy-wrestling skillset to supplement his striking and has only really struggled against fighters who were better wrestlers than him.  The game plan against Moicano will be to initiate the clinch, work trips, and establish top position.  He can stand and bang with Moicano if his wrestling isn’t effective, but he rarely stands and bangs for the entirety of a fight.

Should this fight beat the odds and stay standing for the majority, this could turn into a nasty little firefight.  Dos Anjos is a southpaw power striker with KO power in his left-hand strikes.  The power advantage will be heavily in favor of Dos Anjos.  Although he's not a KO Bob Ross with only five wins via TKO/KO in thirty total career wins, he still hits hard.  RDA is all hooks and short overhands and doesn't lack aggression on the feet.

The value in Moicano will be creating scrambles from his active guard and working chokes from the top position.  A decision favors Rafael Dos Anjos, so Moicano will need a submission to win this.  I can see this being a drawn-out fight, whether it turns out to be five rounds or three.  RDA’s last win by TKO/KO was against Donald Cerrone in 2015, so his value will also be in a submission.  Rafael Dos Anjos via arm triangle, round four.

Winner: Rafael Dos Anjos | Method: Arm Triangel Choke Rd.3/4

Bryce Mitchell (-165 ) vs. Edson Barboza (+145 )

Mitchell: DK: $8.3k | Barboza: DK: $7.9k

This is the definition of striker vs. grappler.  I don’t think I need to identify which is which, considering Barboza is the owner of the greatest KO in UFC history.  I can tell you right now, if Barboza can keep the fight standing, he’ll win.  If not… 

The good news is that either way, this fight will be a banger because every single Barboza fight is a banger.  Even when Khabib was beating the lunch money out of him like Sonic the hedgehog spewing coins out his ass, the fight was a banger.  Barboza can knock you out so clean and fast you won’t even fall; you’ll just stand there in purgatory, stuck between this life and the next, haunting the arena for the rest of eternity while the ref raises Barboza’s hand.   

I mentioned the greatest KO of all time; Terry Etim was the recipient in 2012 and has since made a living as an ironing board after Barboza KO’d him with the most glorious spinning wheel kick in the history of mankind.  If you’ve never seen it… I don’t even know how to finish that.  Barboza is another scary kicker, and his lead leg switch-kick is the nastiest I’ve ever seen.  

Barboza’s boxing is Joe Aldo-like with short, tight combinations.  The liver punch is the most devastating body strike, and Barboza uses it behind a classic one-two, the patented Aldo combination.  None of this matters, though, if he can’t stay on his feet.  The game plan against Bryce Mitchell will be lateral movement and controlling the center of the cage.  Some fighters prefer to skirt around the outside and use the cage to defend takedowns.  The cage is also used to help a downed fighter stand back up, but Barboza needs space to operate and throw those nasty spinning kicks.  They’re a big part of his game, and he doesn’t want to stifle a major weapon.

Bryce Mitchell is a grimy wrestler with haymaker stand-up.  He’s not incompetent on his feet; he has sneaky kicks and a nasty overhand right but compared to Barboza, he’s Stephen A. Smith hitting pads.  Mitchell is a strong wrestler with relentless takedowns in the open mat, against the cage, in self-checkout at Target.  Single-legs, double-legs, no legs, Mitchell has a gamut of techniques tucked away in his camo cargo pockets, and he’ll string techniques together.  That’s called chain wrestling; think of it as takedown combinations, using decoys to set up specific takedowns.

Mitchell is undefeated at 14-0 with noine wins by submission.  But, you and I have the same number of career TKO/KO’s.  It’s grappling or bust for Bryce.  This is a completely fabricated stat: Eighty percent of the time, the dominant grappler in this type of matchup wins the fight.  Bryce had problems in his last fight against Andre Fili, but I think Fili is a better grappler than Barboza.  Bryce should do enough to control the majority of the rounds and eke out a decision.  Barboza will be the underdog, and Barboza at plus money is always a steal, but I’m taking Bryce Mitchell via decision.

Winner: Bryce Mitchell | Method: Decision

Alex Oliveira (+250 ) vs. Kevin Holland (-320 )

Cowboy: DK: $7.1k | Holland: DK: $9.1k

Kevin Holland needs no introduction, especially among Weekly Knockout constant readers.  This guy will whoop your ass and narrate it at the same time.  He’ll make comic book “boom,” “bap,” “paow” sounds while serving you a six-piece combo, service with a smile.  What you may not know about Kevin Holland is that he’s finally dropping weight classes down to welterweight, where he could turn out to be a major problem.  Could you imagine a Michel Pereira vs. Kevin Holland Fight Night main event?

Holland has long, fast boxing and caused problems on the feet for every fighter he faced at middleweight.  The downfall for Holland began when fighters learned he couldn’t defend a takedown.  The Joe Rogan Podcast has better takedown defense than Kevin Holland.  Homie falls over during strong winds.  Homie needs handrails everywhere he goes.  Maybe that will be different in a weight class where he’ll rarely be at a size disadvantage.

Holland can stand and bang with anyone in the division, anyone.  The only hole I see in his striking is that he doesn’t use his range well.  He leaps into strikes and often crowds his punches and runs into takedowns.  Alex Oliveira is a savvy veteran who is strong in the clinch.  Holland will have to stay on the outside and keep Oliveira at the end of his punches.  Oliveira is also long and rangy, but his striking is reckless, and Holland should have a massive advantage on the feet.

Alex Oliveira is eighty in fight years.  This will be his twenty-second appearance in the UFC since 2015.  He’s fought and mostly lost to anybody you can think of.  Cowboy Oliveira fights are a lot like a drunken patron riding a mechanical bull during late-night happy hour.  It’s going to be a swift and wild ride.  He has long wide striking and solid takedowns from the clinch, and his clear path to victory will be dragging Holland to the mat.  The problem will be navigating around Holland’s long bombs on the way in.

This is the perfect fight for Holland after the debacle that was the Kyle Daukaus fight.  Kevin Holland via TKO, round two.  Lets get that Pereira vs. Holland scrap next.

Winner: Kevin Holland  | Method: TKO Rd.2

Sergey Spivak (-190 ) vs Greg Hardy (+160 )

Spivak: DK: $8.7k | Hardy: DK:$7.5k

First off, nobody has more spelling variations of his name than Sergey/Serghei, Spivak.  Second off, why is this on the main card?  How, Sway?  Sergey Spivak is a galoot with cereal box top hand speed.  Let me explain.  When I was a kid, I collected cereal box tops until I had enough box tops to send in for the prize on the back of the Lucky Charms.  I would check the mail every day for four months until I finally forgot I had ordered anything.  Then one day, two years later, my Power Rangers pog would show up in the mail.  That’s the kind of hand speed Serghei Spivak is working with, cereal-box-top hand speed.  

Spivy relies mostly on takedowns and heavy top control to chip away with intermittent ground and pound while hunting for submissions.  The key for Spivak will be closing the distance and fighting in a phone booth against the cage.  Say what you will about Greg Hardy, but the guy is huge and can crack.  If he gets off a clean one on Spivak, it’ll be curtains real quick.  Sergey can't waste a single second getting the fight to the mat.  It’s no secret that Greg Hardy is a victim on his back.  He needs all three timeouts and a commercial break to get back to his feet.  Takedowns and ground and pound are the keys for Serghei.

In his last fight against Tai Tuivasa, Greg Hardy was one follow-up punch away from a first-round TKO.  He had Tuivasa skating around on Heely’s for a brief moment before disaster struck.  As Hardy ran in to finish Tuivasa, he ran into a nasty counter punch that left him face down on the mat.  That’s how quickly fortunes can change in this fight game.  Tuivasa went on to get a huge fight against Derrick Lewis and won that fight by first-round KO and is now in title contention.  

Greg Hardy is dangerous on the feet; he’s developed some serious boxing skills, but his overall MMA game has seen little development.  This is another striker vs. wrestler matchup, and Hardy has solid value as a finishing threat.  If Hardy wins this fight, it will be in the first round.  After that, it will be all Spivak and only a matter of time until Sergey sinks in a choke.  Again, I’m riding with the wrestler, especially against a guy with a Tesla gas tank.  Serghei Spivak via rear-naked choke, round two.

Winner: Seghei Spival | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Prelims

Highlighted Matchup

Brian Kelleher (+475 ) vs Umar Nurmagomedov (-675 )

Kelleher: DK: $6.6k | Nurmagomedov: DK:$9.6k

Yes, that Nurmagomedov.  Umar is a distant Peter-in-law to the man known by one name, Khabib.  But, Umar couldn’t have a more different style than Khabib’s.  You’ve never seen a striker like Umar; he almost exclusively throws kicks, predominantly his right leg from either stance.  Umar uses the question mark kick like a jab, and it’s lightning quick.  The question mark kick is a low kick feint turned into a high kick in one smooth motion, and the fighter on the other end has no idea if it's going low or high.  The only option is to defend high every time because getting kicked in the leg or body is better than getting kicked in the head.  Tradeoffs.

Urban legend says if Umar Nurmagomedov throws hands in a fight, winter will be four weeks longer.  It’s a rare occasion that Umar lets his hands go, but it’s incredible watching this guy completely dominate a fight almost exclusively using kicks.  You think I’m joking, huh?  Watch.

Of course, Umar can wrestle, too.  Umar can change levels in a blink and implement his namesake’s trademark wrestling with heavy ground and pound.  If he shoots and can lock his hands, you’re gonna have a bad time.  Umar is a future champion, the bantamweight’s version of Islam Makhachev, but with more dangerous striking.  I’ll put it on wax, barring injuries or any lengthy setbacks that keep him out of the Octagon, Umar Nurmagomedov will be fighting for a title sooner rather than later.

Brian Kelleher is a scrappy little wrestler striker with a respectable all-around skillset.  He uses short, tight combinations and mixes in swift level changes and takedowns.  But, where can he win the fight?  In an alternate universe where he is Umar and Umar is he.  It’s quite a conundrum.  Umar is just a better fighter everywhere.  Kelleher’s only hope is to close the distance and take his chances throwing combos in the pocket.  That’s Umar’s kryptonite, exchanging in the pocket; he’s a kicker; he needs room to operate.  I don’t like Kelleher’s chances on the mat.  I’d try to make this a firefight and risk ending up on my back if I were Kelleher.

I’d be shocked like Marv if this goes the distance.  Umar Nurmagomedov via rear-naked choke, round two.

Winner: Umar Nurmagomedov | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

Last week, I bet the house, an entire Andy Jack on Bobby Green. My first week out on the streets was rough, but I'm determined to win my house back. A good place to start could be with Jorge Masvidal, AKA Street Jesus. At (+250), Jorge is a serious threat to catch Colby with a heat rock early in the fight. His hand speed and overall technical ability on the feet will give him an advantage if he can pace himself and keep the fight standing.

Greg Hardy (+160) will be an upset threat for approximately three minutes. That's a long three minutes if you're the guy standing across from him while he's throwing bombs. The first round against Hardy is always a crapshoot, a coin toss, heads or tails, awake or asleep. Spivak is a sloth on the feet, and if he struggles to get the fight to the mat with the quickness...

Jamie Mullarkey (+135) is a turd you can't flush even if you call the Mario Bros. He hangs around and makes fights super ugly like Keak Da Sneak even when he's at a physical disadvantage like he will be against the explosive Jalin Turner. Mullarkey can mitigate Turner's speed by initiating the clinch and making this a grinding, drawn-out wrestling match.

Pick 'Em

Jalin Turner (-155 ) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+135 )

            Winner: Jalin Turner

 Method: TKO Rd.3

Marina Rodriguez (-255 ) vs. Yan Xiaonan (+205 )

            Winner: Marina Rodriguez

 Method: Decision

Nicolae Negumereanu (+125 ) vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (-145 )

    Winner: Kennedy Nzechukwu

 Method: TKO Rd.3

Maryna Moroz (+155) vs. Mariya Agapova (-180 )

    Winner: Mariya Agapova

 Method: Decision

Tim Elliott (+205 ) vs. Tagir Ulanbekov (-255 )

    Winner: Tagir Ulanbekov

 Method: Decision

Devonte Smith (-155 ) vs. Ludovit Klein (+135 )

    Winner: Devonte Smith

 Method: Decision

Dustin Jacoby ( ) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk ( )

    Winner: Dustin Jacoby

 Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves. 

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy. 

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning