We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko & Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

There’s a little Diaz Brothers in all of us.

When the laziest kiss-ass at work gets the promotion over you that Diaz comes out.

When you order the twenty-piece nuggets and get home, and there’s only nineteen that Diaz comes out.

When your tío starts talking politics during Thanksgiving dinner that Diaz comes out.

When you turn onto the onramp and come to a dead stop behind a sea of red taillights, that Diaz comes out.

When you find out the Applebees two for twenty is actually forty that Diaz comes out.

When your finger slips through the toilet paper (for most people) that Diaz comes out.

When you listen to the one out of five dentists who didn’t recommend Colgate and find out you have ten cavities, that Diaz comes out.

When it’s second and goal on the one-yard line, prime Beast Mode is in your backfield, and you throw instead of handing it off, that Diaz comes out.

That Diaz is the little gangster voice that hibernates within the dark recesses of your mind. It comes out every once in a while to remind you that you don’t have to take anyone’s shit. Hell no, we won’t go. F you, I won’t do what you told me.

It’s that inner badass that we all believe is hidden inside us somewhere without ever actually seeking its confirmation. All too often, the risk is too great, and it’s easier to just assume.

The Diaz Brothers are the counter-culture, the offbeat drummers throwing the whole band out of whack. They’re not the rule or exception; they’re the inception. The new beginning. A new breed that can’t be trained to fall in line. They’re the ones the rulers fear.

You may not know it, but you need the Diaz Brothers. And others like them. You need people who are misunderstood, counted out, resented. Their success shakes up the system, and lets it know some people are still alive and aren't going anywhere without a fight. If you learn to master that inner Diaz, you, too, will become resilient. And when you succeed despite everyone rooting for your failure, you won't be surprised, mother**ker.

Main Card

Khamzat Chimaev (-1000) vs Nate Diaz (+700)

Chimaev: DK: $9.6k | Diaz: DK:$6.6k

So here we are. At a place I never thought we’d be. A point of no return. The matchup I never thought I’d be writing about. Anyone one, anywhere. That’s what they all say, but few are true to their word. Nate Diaz is a man of his word.

His last few matchups have almost felt like punishments. They’ve all been complete mismatches against fighters at the top of one of the historically best divisions, which happens to be a weight class up from his natural one hundred fifty-five pounds. And had he not stopped to gloat after rocking Leon “Rocky” Edwards in the final minute of the fifth round, it could have been Diaz fighting Usman three weeks ago. Against Jorge Masvidal, Nate refused to go down and looked to be the fresher fighter heading into the championship rounds before the fight was stopped due to a cut.

You can beat Nate Diaz, but you can’t BEAT Nate Diaz. All of Nate’s losses identify as wins. He’s the true people’s champ who shows up and scraps no matter how badly the odds are stacked against him. But this fight might be the tallest task of all that Nate has faced in his twenty-five-fight UFC career.

Chimaev is like a one hundred seventy pound chunk of kryptonite to Nate Diaz. Even though Nate is a submission Bob Ross with eleven submission wins on his record, he has struggled against strong wrestlers with heavy ground and pound like Rafael Dos Anjos. And on the feet, Nate’s hand speed has diminished over the years. So does Nate have ANY chance?

Not really. It took me ten minutes to type that two-word sentence. But let's keep it positive. Nate is still dangerous on the mat and on the feet, and he never had the fastest hands; what makes him dangerous is his ability to land at the end of his punches. Case in point: the Leon Edwards fight. Nate has always lacked power but often has fighters rolling around the Octagon on a pair of Heelys because he connects when fighters think they're safely out of range. He has an uncanny ability to catch people with the snap at the end of his punches, giving them a little extra sting. So, I guess there’s always the chance he could catch Chimaev late, if Chimaev gasses from a grinding scrap. A lot like Leon did late in that fifth round.

But if Chimaev is smart and doesn’t fight with his ego, this fight will look a lot like the Li Jingliang fight, when Chimaev picked up Jingliang, carried him across the ring, slammed him, and choked him out. Nate has a sneaky guard and slick triangle setups, but Chimaev is too strong a grappler. And Chimaev has heavy ground and pound that makes it hard to look for subs when you’re busy trying not to get your face pulverized with elbows and hammerfists.

For Nate, the game plan should be to throw Hail Mary’s on every down. Be that guy. Every moment the fight is standing, Nate has to be attacking with long, lanky combinations and pressuring Chimaev to make a mistake. When Nate ends up on his back, he has to attack with strikes and risk bad positions hunting for subs. If this is Nate’s last dance, let’s fookin’ boogie!

Let’s clear one thing up about Khamzat Chimaev: Gilbert Burns didn’t expose him. Chimaev made a Homer Simpson jumping the gorge leap up in competition, fighting the number two guy in the division. And we found out that Chimaev has that dog in him. That was the exact question we asked about him. Was he a front-runner or a killer? You don’t want the first time you're tested to be in a championship fight with all your hopes and dreams sitting in a heap in the center of the table. You want those questions answered before you reach the pinnacle of the sport.

That’s all I can say about Chimaev; he’s the real deal and could be the champion sometime next year. The only question about this one is how it ends. COT DAMN!! I just looked at the odds for the first time. Chimaev is the disrespectful (-1100) favorite, and Diaz is the (+675) mangy dog.

Last week, Ciryl Gane ended the main event-losing streak before it could get started. If you missed that banger, you missed a classic heavyweight slugfest. Some of these main event picks have hurt my soul lately. Khamzat Chimaev via rear-naked choke, round three.

Winner: Khamzat Chimaev | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Li Jingliang (-330) vs. Tony Ferguson (+250)

Jingliang: DK: $9k | Ferguson: DK: $7.2k

The UFC brass is sadistic. The main and co-main events are slaughters, put out to pasture like future In & Out double-doubles. There are probably some Tony Ferguson Stans choking on their Totinos pizza rolls right meow, but I speak #facts. I can’t make sense of this matchup. Instead of giving the cult legend Tony Ferguson a winnable fight, a tune-up, they hand him a barbarian, a one-man horde, who leaves only destruction in his wake. And the kicker, Tony will be moving up to welterweight for the first time in his career.

Li Jingliang doesn’t just look like a monster; he is one. The MMA Shrek, aka the armpit, Li Jingliang, is an undercover savage. But most of all, he’s slept on like Craftmatic. Please don’t let those images of Khamzat Chimaev carrying Jingliang across the cage fool you into thinking Li is some kind of TLC scrub. Jingliang’s last two wins have been emphatic TKO/KO finishes of two high-level strikers, Santiago “The Ponz” Ponzinibio and Muslim Salikhov. Quietly, Jingliang has achieved an 11-5 UFC record with eight TKO/KO’s in one, if not the best division.

Cadence, rhythm, and flow make Jingliang special on the feet. His movement is odd, herky-jerky, and technical at the same time. He uses a constant bounce on the feet to probe the opponent’s defenses with feinting in/out movement; he also uses ducking and side-to-side head movement and uses the momentum to launch short hooks and overhands with devastating power. The two-three (cross-hook) is Li’s bread and butter, his judge and executioner.

This is a terrible matchup for Tony Ferguson. Jingliang is deceptively fast and powerful, and Tony has been KO’d devastatingly twice in the last two years. The most recent occurrence coming just three months ago when Michael Chandler Ray Guy coffin corner punted Tony eighty yards downfield and out of bounds at the three-yard line. Tony will be starting this fight backed up in his own endzone and will have to fight desperately right from the jump. The path for Jingliang is to pressure and throw combinations. Eventually, that left hook will land.

It wasn’t long ago that Tony Ferguson was on a twelve-fight winning streak and was the interim champion. But even when Ferguson was rolling, there were always glimpses of vulnerabilities that eventually caught up to him. Ferguson’s style wasn't built on fundamentals; he has no technical foundation to return to when his Dance Dance Revolution theatrics fail him. His major problems stem from his lack of a solid stance, and often Tony is caught with his feet and shoulders squared to the opponent, making for a larger target and making it difficult to defend strikes.

I’ll say this about Tony: he won the first round against Michael Chandler and visibly hurt Chandler, catching Chandler with classic Tony Ferguson strange punches that seem to materialize out of nowhere. Is there any of that nostalgic Tony Ferguson magic left? Maybe, but I don’t think the welterweight division is the place to try to rediscover it. Tony’s value will be the same as in the Chandler fight; he has to come out aggressive and hope to land something fight-ending before he gets caught. And he will eventually get caught.

Jingliang is the (-300) favorite, and I think that’s an undervalue for this matchup. Ferguson will be the (+240) dog, and the fight is favored (-130) to end before the final bell and under two and a half rounds. The value here is in a Jingliang finish valued at (+125) for a TKO/KO. If you still believe in Tony, his path to victory will be in a finish, and I think a submission (+600) has more value than a TKO/KO. Li has never been finished on the feet but has been finished twice by submission. But I have to roll with the MMA Mona Lisa: Li Jingliang via TKO, round three.

Winner: Li Jingliang | Method: TKO Rd.3

Daniel Rodriguez (+155) vs. Kevin Holland (-210)

D-Rod: DK: $7.5k | Holland: DK: $8.7k

Sound the air sirens. Cue up the emergency response system and that annoying loud beep with rainbow colors splayed across the screen. Set up the triages and blood donation centers. Spectators may need grief counseling after witnessing this one right here. This is a stupid matchup. Stupid, as in crazy good. This matchup is better than some Fight Night Main events on the near horizon. Here we have a Michael Vick world championship scrap between two rabid dogs that were bred specifically to fight.

Daniel Rodriguez is the protégé of one of my favorite strikers of all time, Joe “Stitch ‘Em Up” Schilling. Rodriguez embodies that streetwise gangster Diaz mentality and fights with zero fear in his heart. His style reminds me of the legendary Chris Leben. I mention Leben a lot, and if you don’t know who he is, you better ask somebody. Like me. Leben was an awkward southpaw who stumbled around the cage unloading left hands until he or his opponent were left face down on the canvas. He was known for his otherworldly power. Scientists have been studying Leben’s power since he competed on the first Ultimate Fighter and still can’t determine how he generates more energy than the California power grid. Rodriguez has an eerily similar left hand with life-changing power and is never out of a fight unless you chop it off at the shoulder. Anything left above the elbow he can still use to bludgeon you.

This fight will be determined by who can control the range to their benefit more often. Holland is a long striker—I mean really long striker—but doesn’t always use his reach well. He leaps into the pocket and often crowds his punches. His biggest vulnerability is in the pocket, where he tends to take a lot of damage because his punches are too long to exchange back and forth at close range. Close range is where Daniel Rodriguez dwells like Smeagol and creates the most damage. He wades in behind the left hand and finishes with short hooks on the inside. Getting inside of Holland’s long punches will be the key for Rodriguez. D-Rod isn’t known for his wrestling, but he can use level changes to close the distance, clinch, and strike off the break. He’ll be looking to make this a dirty scrap.

Kevin Holland needs no introduction. Nobody can whoop your ass and narrate it like Morgan Freeman at the same time like Kevin Holland. Homie can go full Pat Summerall, Vin Scully on your ass and give you the play-by-play of the ass whoopin’ he’s administering. F global warming, this guy can gum bump up a category five storm of the century. But, I say all that to say this: for a couple of fights now, Kevin Holland has toned down his antics inside the cage and has approached fights more seriously. And he’s 2-0 since finally making the drop to welterweight, where he has solid wins against Cowboy Oliveira and the veteran’s veteran Tim Means.

I’ve mentioned Holland’s weaknesses, but his strength is long speed and power. Not only are his strikes long, but also they’re explosive, and if he ever rolls through the Thunderdome and I show him how to engage with footwork instead of leaping into the pocket, Kevin Holland will be unstoppable. The underrated part of his game is his Jiu-Jitsu; he has six subs for his career and has nasty head-and-arm chokes. Most people think of Holland’s ground game as sauce because they’re used to seeing him getting rag-dolled by bigger fighters at middleweight. But trust me, Holland has high-level submissions, and his wrestling is getting consistently better.

Holland’s superior UFC experience at a higher weight class and his multiple paths to victory are why he’s the (-210) favorite. Bust out the Piso Mojado signs; Daniel Rodriguez will be dripping value all over your freshly Swiffer’d floor as a Fantasy option and as a betting underdog. Holland puts himself directly in the fire, directly in harm’s way, often in a fight, and D-Rod has the power to make him pay. The odds are pretty much even for the fighting ending before or after the final bell. A Holland TKO/KO will return (+190) and a submission (+700). And a D-Rod TKO/KO is valued at (+425). I think both fighters can finish the fight, but both have shown to be almost impossible to stop. Give me the decision. Kevin Holland via decision.

Winner: Kevin Holland | Method: Decision

Irene Aldana (-175) vs. Macy Chiasson (+140)

Aldana: DK: $8.8k | Chiasson: DK: $7.4k

This is like classic rock vs. grunge. Irene Aldana is a pristine technical kickboxer and one of the best pure strikers in women’s MMA. And Macy Chiasson is a grimy, rotten grinder who dominates in all the gray areas often overlooked like striking in the clinch. Aldana likes to fight controlled professional-looking bouts, while Chiasson wants to make things ugly and often chaotic.

Aldana was a late Spectrum payment away from securing a title shot when she fought Holy Holm in a main event in 2020. Her wifi connection was spotty at best that night, and Aldana spent most of the round buffering and following Holly around the cage. Holly never stopped circling to her left, and Aldana kept following her instead of taking one step to her right to cut the cage. But she rebounded with a first-round drubbing of Yana Kunitskaya last year. She is 6-4 in the UFC but has shown some major improvements in her last four fights.

Me, Myself and Irene Aldana has sharp, technically sound boxing with occasional kicks. Her style is very close to that of a pro boxer, both defensively and offensively, striking out of a high guard. The major hole in her stand-up is her lack of footwork and movement in general. She fights very flatfooted and heavy and lacks the little wrinkles that separate great strikers from special strikers. The key for Aldana will be dominating the center of the cage with lateral movement and a heavy dosage of her jab. She has to avoid the warning track and getting trapped against the cage where Chiasson can get hold of her.

Aldana is 13-6 for her career with seven TKO/KO’s and three subs and 6-4 in the UFC with two TKO/KO’s and one sub. Statistically, Aldana will be the higher output striker, averaging over five and a half significant strikes landed per minute, while Chiasson lands at just over three and a half. Irene has clocked over one hundred strikes three times in three-round fights. Macy Chiasson’s edge will be in takedowns as she averages two takedowns per fifteen minutes and is coming off a win against Norma Dumont in which she scored six takedowns.

Macy is a NOLA grimy fighter who eliminates space and fights in a phone booth. Once she gets hold of you, she doesn’t let go and chips away with elbows and knees while working trips. Chiasson struggles in kickboxing matches and needs the clinch to survive like the NFL needs the Dallas Cowboys. Her strikes are long and a little flimsy and lack power, and most of her damage is done in the clinch and from the top position. In many ways, this is a striker vs. grappler matchup, with each fighter having a preference for where the fight takes place. But Aldana has an eighty-four percent career takedown defense, and getting her to the mat and keeping her there is not easy.

Aldana will be the (-180) favorite, and Chiasson the (+145) dog. You can get (+150) for the fight ending in fewer than two and a half rounds. I think the bigger finishing threat is Irene Aldana, and (+375) for a TKO/KO finish is a great look. But both ladies are tough, and I think it goes the distance. Irene Aldana via decision.

Winner: Irene Aldana  | Method: Decision

Johnny Walker (+160) vs Ion Cutelaba (-200)

Walker: DK: $7.6k | Cutelaba: DK: $8.6k

They’ll be strapping on the melatonin gloves for this one. One of these guys will wake up on Elm St. with a burn victim wearing a glove made of steak knives chasing him. Johnny "Donnie Darko" Walker is a circus striker with wild flying and spinning attacks, and Ion Cutelaba is a Sherman tank with howitzers in both hands that he can unload on the feet or while on the mat.

Johnny Walker is the definition of kill or be killed in the Octagon. He will either land a Guile Flash Kick and score a highlight reel KO, or be the highlight reel KO. Much like Tony Ferguson, Walker lacks a fundamental base and struggles in traditional back-and-forth kickboxing matches. He also struggles defending takedowns and has no guard game to speak of. Johnny Walker will have to get back to doing Johnny Walker shit in this one if he doesn’t want to lose a third straight and five of his last six. I think of him as the Michel Pereira of the light heavyweight division, but unlike Pereira, Walker depends almost exclusively on wild techniques to win.

Ion Cutelaba is a hybrid Toyota Frontrunner that you can’t charge in the state of California, so he still runs out of gas. The first five to eight minutes against Cutelaba is like Mobb Deep’s third album, Hell On Earth. This guy likes to paint himself green like the Hulk at weigh-ins and throws bombs like the Hulk in the Octagon. His technical striking skills are average, but his aggression and power are above.

The clear path to victory will be with takedowns and top control. The only way Cutelaba can lose is if he can’t relocate the fight and gets stuck standing. Cutelaba averages nearly five takedowns per fifteen minutes and close to five significant strikes. Against Devin Clark, another solid wrestler, Cutelaba scored eight takedowns and three against Ryan Spann in the first round before Cutelaba got put to bed with no dinner.

Cutelaba will be the (-200) favorite, and Walker will have a ton of value as the (+160) dog. Walker is the proverbial home run hitter; he won’t work the count or foul off any tough pitches to get deep into the count, but he’ll give you three hearty swings with the potential to land a fighter’s head in the upper deck. He’s the ultimate gamble, with a high upside and a steep downside. I’ve gone back and forth on this one. Cutelaba hasn’t been much better than Walker in his last five bouts, recording a 1-3-1 record in that span. Ion Cutelaba via rear-naked choke, round two.

Winner: Ion Cutelaba  | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Prelims

Value Menu

Yohan Lainesse (+102) vs Darian Weeks(-130)

Lainesse: DK: $8k | Weeks: DK: $8.2k

You know I like showing the first fight of the night love. The first fight often flips the whole night like dinner tables on Thanksgiving during the Cowboys game. Yohan Lainesse vs. Darian Weeks is favored (-185) to end before the final bell for one reason only, Yohan Lainesse. You don’t mess with the Yohan. This homie has awkward striking, faintly reminiscent of “The Dean of Mean” Keith Jardine (IYKYK). His power is sneaky and devastating, and he’ll be an early KO threat. He’ll also double as a late KO’d threat. Yohan has about as much juice as a Tesla during a power grid failure. If he didn’t fully charge the night before, he’ll have about seven and a half minutes of operational time stored. After that, Darian Weeks will take over on the feet and on the mat and have a good shot to finish late.

Straight up, this fight is basically a pick ‘em with Yohan barely touching plus money at (+102). Weeks is the early (-130) favorite, and I think that’s only because Yohan will be working within a short window, and Weeks can go a hard fifteen minutes. The bet here is a Yohan Lainesse TKO/KO at (+235). Yohan is 8-1 for his career with six TKO/KO’s. Lainesse lost his UFC debut to the barbarian Gabe Green but had Green all but unconscious late in the first round and gassed trying to finish. For his career, Darian Weeks is 5-2 with four TKO/KO’s and one sub and is 0-2 in the UFC. Weeks’ value will be in a late finish or decision win with late takedowns and top control. A Weeks TKO/KO will return (+265) and a decision (+250). Fantasy wise, they will both likely have low ownership with a high upside.

Chad Anheliger (+145) vs Alateng Heili (-175)

Anheliger: DK: $7.8k | Heili: DK: $8.4k

This will most certainly be a slept on lil’ banger. Payless Kenny Powers, aka Vegan Bobby Green, aka Chad Anheliger, has some sneaky slick striking, and the “Mongolian Knight” Alateng Heili is a powerful heathen and destroyer of shitty walls.

Anheliger has a wide open kill or be killed style with low hands that work to his advantage and detriment. He uses a continual bounce and lateral movement on the feet to attack at angles and slip/counter while attacking and retreating. Chad has sneaky good footwork and relies on landing the unseen punch more than pure power; he hits you with something short that you didn’t see coming.

But Anheliger also tends to run head first into danger as well. He tends to take a lot of damage because he runs into counters with his hands down and chin up. Every exchange is a coin flip. Anheliger’s style creates value for a finish one way or the other for this fight.

Alateng Heili is a short, powerful wrestler with the classic wrestler striking on the feet. He can take the fight to the mat or catch Anheliger coming in with a fight-ending right hand. If Heili can’t get it to the mat, I like the chances that one of these guys lands something leading to a fight-ending sequence. The fight is favored (-155) to go the distance, and an early finish will return (+120).

An Anheliger TKO/KO will return (+600) odd and is begging for an Andy Jackson. Anheliger started his career 2-5 and has since won ten straight, including a recent third-round TKO on the Contender Series. During that ten-fight winning streak, Anheliger has eight finishes, four TKO/KO’s, and four submissions. An Alateng Heili TKO/KO will return (+375), and a decision (+125) would also favor Heili’s wrestling and ability to clock top control.

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleepers

Daniel Rodriguez (+170): This will be a firefight, and Rodriguez will have plenty of opportunities to land his massive left hand. Kevin Holland’s hands fall apart in the pocket; he needs space to unload his long strikes, and he’s often over-aggressive and tends to over pursue. Rodriguez's cross and lead hook will often find cozy little homes on Holland’s chin. Don’t sleep on D-Rod.

Johnny Walker (+165): He’ll either strike out or hit a moonshot like the cow that jumped over it. If I’m Walker, I’m coming out like Michel Pereira did in his debut, doing Cirque Du Soleil trapeze acrobatics in the Octagon. I’m throwing every spinning and flying technique I’ve ever seen and hoping to land a walk-off. That’s the style that got Walker a name in the game, and if he lets his strikes go against Cutelaba, he can win this fight. But he’s working on a small window of opportunity and can’t waste any time.

Nate Diaz (+700): Why? Why not? Who has more dog in them than Nate Diaz?

Pick 'Em

Hakeem Dawodu (-220) vs. Julian Erosa (+180)

Winner: Hakeem Dawodu

 Method: Decision

Jailton Almeida (-800) vs. Anton Turkalj (+475)

Winner: Jailton Almeida

 Method: Rear-Naked Joke Rd.2

Denis Tiuliulin (+105) vs. Jaime Pickett (-130)

    Winner: Denis Tiuliulin

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Chris Barnett (+325) vs. Jake Collier (-450)

    Winner: Jake Collier

 Method: Decision

Danyelle Wolf (+300) vs. Norma Dumont (-400)

    Winner: Norma Dumont

 Method: Decision

Chad Anheliger (+145) vs. Alateng Heili (-175)

    Winner: Alateng Heili

 Method: TKO Rd.3

Melissa Martinez (-170) vs. Elise Reed (+140)

    Winner: Melissa Martinez

 Method: Decision

Darian Weeks (-130) vs. Yohan Lainesse (+105)

    Winner: Yohan Lainesse

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning