We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

Don't miss this card, homies. NBB (Nothing But Bangers).

Kevin Holland (+250 ) vs. Marvin Vettori (-325)

Holland: DK: $6.6k | Vettori: DK: $9.6k

If you only had two shots, two opportunities, to seize everything you ever wanted, two moments, would you capture them or let them slip?  Just doesn’t have the same ring to it.  Everybody deserves a second chance.  I’m no fan of the cliché.  There’s a sense of entitlement inherent in the statement, an entitlement that diminishes the merits of the initial effort.  It’s like performing a high-wire act with a safety net; the lack of danger cheapens the feat, the height of the skyscrapers anchoring the ends becomes inconsequential.

Second chances are strokes of luck, unforeseen breaks, fortuitous circumstances, not inherent rights.  You live today like there’s no tomorrow, and you make the most of every opportunity as if it’s your last.  Those sentiments couldn’t be more applicable than they are in combat sports.  One loss in this game could be the slight breeze that sets you slightly off course, and before you know it, you’re watching your full potential sail by well out of reach.  

This Saturday night, Kevin Holland is getting a second chance, but he doesn’t deserve one.  He just happened to be the fortunate patron Lady Luck sat next to at the bar.  But she’s no floozy.  It’s up to Kevin Holland to play his cards correctly to ensure a steamy nightcap.  Second chances are big responsibilities; most people don’t get a first.  Plus, I don’t know of any clichés about third chances.

Just three weeks ago, I was exposed as a Kevin Holland propagandist, caught red-handed running interference in an attempt to redirect attention away from the large holes in his game after my fawning description of his highly successful 2020.  Holland hung me out to dry like your mammy did your skid-marked chonies in fourth grade just to embarrass you in front of the neighbors, knowing damn well the sun doesn't make them any whiter.  My man, Holland, gum bumped up a category five storm of the century and refused to heed the mandatory evacuation orders.  

When on his feet—which was probably only a total of four minutes of the entire twenty-five-minute bout—Holland was sloppy and reckless and literally ran into takedowns.  From his back, where Holland spent most of the fight, he held Derek Brunson in a body triangle for long stretches.  A body triangle from the bottom is a stall tactic or a position used to control the opponent if you need time to recover.  Or in Kevin Holland’s practice, the body triangle is the perfect opportunity to hold a networking social mixer.  Do I sound bitter? 

There’s not much to analyze from Holland’s fight with Brunson, and the only major takeaway is that Kevin Holland can push a verbal pace that only Hall of Fame auctioneers can match.  He made himself vulnerable to takedowns by leaping into strikes from too far outside the pocket, exposing his hips to an opponent solely looking to change levels every time Holland engaged.  Holland’s fight IQ was Bobo AKA Steve from Florida level, not very high.  

The game plan for Holland this weekend is as simple as can be, fight.  That’s it.  Go out there and actually scrap this time.  Vettori has solid takedowns; if Holland ends up on his back again, he needs to show urgency to strike from his guard and force scrambles back to his feet.  The most frustrating thing about Holland’s last performance was that he has excellent Jiu-Jitsu and failed to use it in any capacity.

If you gave Marvin Vettori a 1920s newsboy cap with a razor blade stashed in the headband, he’d be a souped-up Thomas Shelby.  There’s an air of “don’t F with me” that accompanies Vettori’s presence inside the cage.  Vettori is an aggressive power striker who rarely throws single punches.  Everything he throws is in combination and accompanied by heavy forward pressure.  When making my pitch to Bed Bath and Beyond for retail consideration of my “Be First and Be Often” throw pillows, I used Vettori as a person who fully embraces and lives by the motto.  There’s little to no feeling out process with Vettori, and he’s consistently the first to engage.  A southpaw and mostly pure boxer, Vettori will attack with short, basic, yet fundamentally sound combinations; double jabs, one-twos, and two-threes (cross-hook).

Marvin has the wrestling and grinding takedowns against the cage to copyright infringe on Derek Brunson’s game plan against Holland, no bibliography, no sources cited.  Scoring takedowns and top control and limiting the number of exchanges on the feet is Vettori’s easiest path to victory.  Don’t get me wrong, Vettori can stand and bang with Holland, but Holland has long sneaky power and had Brunson in danger multiple times during the short standup periods.

Defensively, Vettori struggles to defend second-level strikes and likes to pull straight back with his head up too often.  When you use a “pull” technique to defend, you have to either counter immediately or pull and get your head off the centerline before returning to the original head position.  Vettori pulls and comes right back to the center every time, and as the fight wanes into the later rounds, he gets lazy and tends to accept taking damage.  Holland needs to attack with aggressive three to four strike combinations to take advantage of this flaw.  Holland also needs to feint or double jab his way into the pocket when Vettori pulls to catch him on the return.

Mr. Holland, lead left hooks from orthodox and left overhands from southpaw, will land all day on Vettori; he doesn’t defend his lead side very well, especially over his lead shoulder, and consistently drops his right hand when he throws his laser beam left cross.  

Mr. Vettori, fifty-fifty positions in the clinch are your best windows of opportunity to trip Holland to the mat.  Derek Brunson won almost every single fifty-fifty position in the clinch and had no problem taking Holland down at will.

For every wrong, there’s a font, and Kevin Holland will need excellent penmanship to execute the exotic calligraphy needed to write his.  But if he enters the Octagon with the correct mindset, with the perfect mixture of gum bumping and backing it up, Holland can not only win the fight but win it emphatically with a KO.  The only question is, has his mouth had enough time to heal from the Brunson fight. 

You know what time it is, time to put it on wax.  Here’s a life hack; I almost always pick the first and last fights incorrectly.  It’s almost a guaranteed dub picking opposite of my main event picks.  Use that to your advantage.  Marvin Vettori via decision.  That hurt to type.

Confidence Index:

Vettori: 60% 

Holland: 40%

Winner: Marvin Vettori | Method: Decision

Arnold Allen (+115 ) vs Sodiq Yusuff (-140)

Allen: DK: $7.7k | Yusuff: DK:$8.5k

At first glance, this is a suspicious co-main event, but trust me, it’s a banger.  Sodiq Yusuff and Arnold Allen are two very talented and highly touted up and comers with undefeated UFC records; Allen is 7-0, and Yusuff is 4-0.  Both are excellent strikers but have polar opposite styles.  Yusuff is the more explosive, athletic, traditional kickboxer, while Allen is the less technical, higher output boxer who carries his hands low and prefers an ugly back and forth firefight.

Sodiq Yusuff has hand speed to burn and an overhand right that can change marital statuses real quick.  He has a stiff boxer’s jab, a textbook one-two, and utilizes a high and tight hand-guard for defense.  He reminds me of Bellator’s long-time lightweight champion, Patricio “Pitbull” Freire, the classic Brazillian upright, stalking Muay Thai.  Yusuff’s pressure is constant even without using a high strike output, and he cuts the cage off well.  Like a lockdown corner in the NFL, Yusuff can take away half the field by using his piston right hand to box in his opponents, leaving only one escape route. 

Yusuff lacks takedown defense, but he’s very difficult to hold down.  Any kid with a jungle gym back in the day remembers playing the “the ground is lava” game.  You weren’t allowed to touch the ground.  If you did, you were turned into a Pompei plaster cast and lost the game.  When Yusuff’s ass hits the mat, his urgency scrambling back to his feet is like he’s playing that game.  He has a knack for scrambling and ending up in top position, where he implements continual grinding ground and pound with intermittent heavy barrages.

Grappling will be the x-factor.  Arnold Allen has better offensive wrestling and takedown entries than Yusuff, and a takedown heavy game plan would be advised.  When you’re facing a more explosive, more athletic opponent on the feet, you have to wear them down by making it an MMA fight and not just a kickboxing match with four-ounce gloves.  Allen needs to press Yusuff against the cage and make him defend takedowns consistently throughout the fight.  The idea is to take a little steam off Yusuff’s punches because Allen will be at a decided speed disadvantage early.

On the feet, Allen is the higher output striker.  Both are one’s and one-twos strikers, but Allen has much less dead air between exchanges.  Arnold is a southpaw, and his best technique is the one-two down the pike.  One advantage to carrying the hands low is initiating strikes from unorthodox angles from the opponent’s lower peripheral rather than from the traditional eye level.  The classic lower peripheral strike is the uppercut.  The uppercut is the most difficult punch to defend because you can’t see it coming.  With Allen’s low hand position, the uppercut has no hitch and is always in the chamber, and he sets it up behind straight punches.  It’s a fight-changing strike for Allen.

Like Marvin Vettori, Allen doesn’t defend over his lead shoulder and often exits the pocket too passively with his hands down and chin up.  Yusuff will have to key in on that with lead hooks and lead-leg kicks.  Whoever can get to the second level strikes (3-4 punch combos) more often will win the fight.  If it ends prematurely, Yusuff’s right hand will be the prime suspect, but I think it will ultimately go the distance.  Yusuff’s low output worries me a lot, and Arnold Allen is a grimey mother-shut-your-mouth.  As the slight dog, Arnold Allen is dripping with value, but after ten coin flips, Yusuff (heads) came out on top and is the pick via decision.  On wax.

Winner: Sodiq Yusuff | Method: Decision

Sam Alvey (+160) vs. Julian Marquez (-200)

Alvey: DK: $7.2k | Marquez: DK: $9k

Banger.  Your TomTom won’t provide an alternative route around it.  Show me a boring Sam Alvey fight.  You can’t do it.  Like the weapons of mass destruction, it doesn’t exist.  I’m telling you right meow, as the (+160) dog, I’m riding with Alvey.  I know, it sounds crazy; Alvey is 0-4-1 in his last five fights, but he only fights killers, and he’s not competitive only on rare occasions.  Not to mention he was robbed in his latest outing against Da Un Jung.  The best fighters in the UFC, at least the fighters with better careers than ninety percent of UFC fighters, are the gatekeepers.  They fight all the young up-and-coming future challengers and champions.  Sam Alvey has twenty fights in the UFC, twenty.  You can grab David Copperfield, David Blaine, and a Ouija Board to resurrect Houdini, but you aren’t going to show Sam Alvey anything he hasn’t seen before.

Alvey is a southpaw and his check right hook counter is his special move.  When Smiling Sam catches fighters coming in with the check hook, it’s usually a tide-changer.  Against orthodox fighters, Sam lands heavy outside calf kicks and comes forward with three to four punch combos.  I’ve been very critical of Tyron Woodley for fighting with his back against the cage, and Sam Alvey tends to do the same thing.  Fighting with his back against the cage is his Lynus blanket, his safe space.  But it actually works for him because he’s aggressive and uses the cage to kind of push off and kick starts his forward pressure.

After his most recent victory in February, Julian Marquez shot his shot.  But unlike Gonzaga’s Jalen Suggs, Marquez’s shot hit all backboard and careened off disappointedly into a bag of soiled jockstraps.  Marquez hollered at Miley Cyrus in his post-fight interview with Joe Rogan.  She then responded and threw the ball back in Julian’s court, and he dribbled it off his foot.  It was reminiscent of the old Sprite commercial where the guy tries to dunk after drinking the soda and hits nothing but rim.  Marquez was shook.  Ain’t no such thing as halfway crooks, Julian.  You ain’t ‘bout it ‘bout it.

I say that to say this; Marquez pulled off a last-second win against Maki Pitolo after looking like dog poo, stepped in, for most of the fight.  He’s going to need more than just one of the dopest nicknames (The Cuban Missile Crisis) to beat Smiling Sam. 

Marquez has aggressive kickboxing with heavy power in his right hand and rear-leg kicks.  He thrives in firefights and needs to clock in OT minutes inside the pocket to be effective.  Protect Ya Neck, Sam Alvey.  Marquez hunts for standing guillotines from the clinch relentlessly, and they can be just as effective as traditional takedowns getting the fight to the mat.  To defend the standing guillotine, you have to turn and go to your back to escape, allowing your opponent to gain top position.

Toss-up.  The chalk, responsible pick is Marquez.  I think he’ll come out far more aggressive than he did in his last bout.  But I’m climbing perilously out on that familiar limb again for this one.  Sam Alvey via decision.  Miley, if you’re reading this, what’s up? 

Winner: Sam Alvey | Method: Decision

Nina Nunes (-130 ) vs Mackenzie Dern (+110)

Ansaroff: DK: $8.3k |Dern: DK: $7.9k

Another one. Banger.  Nina Nunes is a new mother and the spouse of Amanda Nunes.  Nina is coming off a long near two-year layoff, but I can’t imagine she hasn’t been actively training.  But I was shocked to see Nunes open as the (-140) favorite.  She will be the more refined, technical striker in this bout against one of the best Jiu-Jitsu players in MMA, Mackenzie Dern.  Nina reminds me of a female version of BJ Penn with her hands, but unlike BJ, she adds a clever variety of kicks to her arsenal.  She’ll turn round leg kicks into side kicks and up-the-middle snap kicks, much like question mark kicks.

Nunes has had trouble in the past with defending takedowns and getting back to her feet against good wrestlers like Tatiana Suarez.  But Mackenzie Dern has trouble scoring takedowns even though she’s a grappling phenom.  Dern doesn’t use traditional wrestling level change takedowns and often gets stuck in three-round kickboxing matches.  She lacks the intricate techniques and knowledge on the feet that elite strikes have.  Instead, Dern relies on winging heavy, wide overhands and hooks and survives mostly on aggression alone.

If Dern can tie up Nunes and trip her to the mat, she can succeed where Tatiana Suarez failed against Nunes and finish the fight with a submission.  Dern’s ability to find submissions as soon as the fight goes to the mat makes her a live dog.  But I think Nunes will be a little too slick on the feet and outpoint Dern.  Nina Nunes via decision.  Give Dern a roster spot on your Fantasy squad.  Her submission threat is worth the gamble.

Winner: Nina Nunes | Method: Decision

Mike Perry (+140 ) vs Daniel Rodriguez (-170)

Perry: DK: $7.4k | Rodriguez: DK:$ 8.8k

*Fight Of The Night*

I slid into someone’s DM’s for the first time recently.  I DM’d Mike Perry and offered my cornering services pro bono.  In past fights, Perry’s girlfriend has handled the head corner(wo)man duties, and although “where should I put the ice” and “you look good babe” are fine pieces of advice, I thought I could provide a little more direction when it comes to in-fight adjustments between rounds.  Mike Perry ghosted me.  

There’s a slim chance that Mike Perry might implement takedowns and try to control top position for long stretches during the fight, but there’s a bigger chance that this turns into a Black Friday clearance TV scrap real quick.  Both guys are aggressive power strikers with broken joystick forward movement; they don’t move in any other direction.  Also, both fighters are snowflakes and easily offended by the suggestion of using any defense, head movement, or otherwise.    

Daniel Rodriguez is a pupil of one of my favorite strikers of all time and former Glory Kickboxing World Champion, Joe “Stitch ‘Em Up” Schilling.  An awkward southpaw, D-Rod has Chris Leben-like freakish power, and it isn’t always pretty.  

Mike Perry can match Rodriguez strike for strike, and it will come down to who can land the first game-changer.  Perry isn’t the most technical fighter; he won’t wow you with slick footwork or fancy head movement, but he will string punches together and go forward without hesitation.

One way or the other, I’m going to have a career night on Saturday.  I’m either going to take a record number of L’s to the face, or I’ll be hitting an unprecedented number of victory bowls.  This card is nothing but bangers and toss-ups from top to bottom.  Daniel Rodriguez, decision.

Winner: Daniel Rodriguez | Method: Decision

Prelims

Highlighted Matchup

William Knight (-140) vs. Da-Un Jung  (+115)

Knight: DK: $7.8k | Jung: DK: $8.4k  

There’s an early curfew and lights-out in effect for this fight.  William Knight and Da-Un Jung are two heavy-handed strikers with one-punch KO power.  Knight has an added wrestling advantage that features highlight-reel slams.  Willy Knight is a man of two extremes, extremely short and extremely stout.  He’s built like a Ninja Turtle.  I like tuttles.  If he gets hold of you, he may throw you out of the Octagon or through the Octagon and into the center of the earth to kick it with the crab people.

Jung will have to keep his back off of the cage, fighting for under hooks and breaking the clinch with urgency.  You could say like his life depends on it.  Knight has heavy ground and pound and is more than capable of finishing Jung from the top position.  

On the feet, Da-Un Jung will have a serious reach and technical advantage over Knight.  Jung needs to stay outside using his jab and force Knight to cover a lot of ground to get inside, while Knight needs to be in the pocket to be effective with his short, powerful hooks.  Stick and move.  An oldie but a goodie.  Jung needs to stay on his bike and pepper Knight with short combos from the outside and avoid drifting back near the warning track.  

For Jung, Saturday night will be like fighting a tree stump for fifteen minutes.  This is a complete and utter toss-up.  Both can finish the fight on the feet, but I’d give that edge to Jung.  But Knight can dominate with takedowns, top control, and ground and pound.  On wax, William Knight via TKO, round three.

Winner: William Knight | Method: TKO Rd.3

Fighter Spotlight

Ignacio Bahamondes (-190) DK: 8.9k

This guy right here is a bleeping monster.  He’s making his UFC debut after earning a roster spot on the Contender Series with a coffin corner punt KO that was downed inside the one-yard line.  Bahamondes won via Anderson Silva front kick to the face after putting on a striking master class.  This guy is as polished a striker as a twenty-three-year-old can be.  His movement is like my two-year-old playing Tekken, all over the place and unpredictable. Switching stances and being able to fight seamlessly out of both is a trademark of elite strikers.  Bahamondes switches stances mid combination while moving forward and while countering moving backward, and he uses stance switches to cut off the ring and box in the opponent.

Ignacio is long with a cape on, super long, and taller than the cage.  Although he fought at welterweight on the Contender series, he will be competing at lightweight this Saturday.  He’s a physical mismatch for almost anyone in the division and will be a problem in the future if he continues to develop.  Bahamondes manages distance well and uses snap kicks and round kicks with both legs, leaving opponents stuck in no-man's land with no ability to get inside on him.   This guy is creative and throws never-ending combinations of hands and kicks; he leaves no dead air and can push the pace for all three rounds.    

Bahamondes is 11-3, and I wouldn’t want to run into the three guys who beat him.  He’ll be making his debut against the tough John Makdessi, and I think Makdessi is in for a long, short night.  Ignacio Bahamondes has a good chance of scoring a finish in this one, and he’s the fighter I’m most looking forward to watching on Saturday.

Mateusz Gamrot (-240) DK: 9.2k

Check out the wrestling on this guy.  Gamrot has some of the best technical takedowns you’ll see; he changes level in a blink and shoots double legs like any Olympic caliber wrestler.  His standup is excellent and accentuates his ability to get the fight to the mat.  The always tough Scott Holtzman will be Gamrot’s opponent on Saturday, and I like the matchup for Gamrot to utilize his wrestling to score top control time.   

Joe Solecki (-240) DK: 9.1k

Another excellent wrestler/grappler, Joe Solecki, has a favorable matchup against the man who holds the record for most appearances inside the Octagon, AKA the GOAT gatekeeper, Jim Miller.  I love Miller, but I think Solecki gets a submission finish in this one, probably a rear-naked choke.

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

Call it a win-win, call it the ol' okie doke, call it what you want to call it, but at (+250), you already know what time it is. Kevin Holland time. He's perfectly in my Twenty-Twen-Twen sleeper wheelhouse, and I'm face-planting an Andy Jack on the table. If he comes out aggressive, he has the power to catch a defensively deficient Marvin Vettori and set into motion a fight-ending sequence. 

If you have trust issues with Holland, I completely understand. A couple of alternatives: Mike Perry at (+140) is a great look, and the first fight of the night features a scrappy, aggressive striker named Sasha Palatnikov. Palatnikov pulled off a massive upset in his debut on short notice against Louis Cosce last November.  His opponent, Impa Kasanganay, managed to get KO'd with a jumping spinning back kick in his most recent bout and now has a bust in the Knocked Out Hall of Fame.

Pick 'Em

Jim Miller (+190 ) vs. Joe Solecki (-240 )

            Winner: Joe Solecki

 Method: Rear-Naked Choke

Scott Holtzman (+190 ) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (-240 )

            Winner: Mateusz Gamrot

 Method: Decision

Norma Dumont (-250 ) vs. Erin Blanchfield (+200 )

Winner: Norma Dumont

 Method: Decision

John Madessi (+155) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (-190)

    Winner: Ignacio Bahamondes

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Yorgan De Castro (-300) vs. Jarjis Danho (+235)

    Winner: Yorgan De Castro

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Hunter Azure (+135) vs. Jack Shore (-165)

    Winner: Jack Shore

 Method: Decision

Luis Saldana (-140) vs. Jordan Griffin (+115)

    Winner: Luis Saldana

 Method: Decision

Da-Un Jung (-140) vs. William Knight (+115)

    Winner: William Knight

 Method: TKO Rd.3

Impa Kasanganay (-300) vs. Sasha Palatnikov (+235)

    Winner: Sasha Palatnikov

 Method: TKO Rd.3

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves. 

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy. 

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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