We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

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Main Card

Max Holloway (-165 ) vs. Calvin Kattar (+135)

Holloway: DK: $8.9k, FD: $21 | Kattar: DK: $7.3k, FD: $18

The 2021 UFC season is kicking off with a certified banger and possible fight of the year candidate right from the jump. If you don’t know who Max Holloway is, welcome to the sport; we’re happy to have you on board. Your New Year’s resolution to live life to its absolute fullest is off to a great start. There are some side effects you’re likely to experience as a new MMA enthusiast, so here’s some of the fine print:

May experience a natural boost in testosterone. Thoughts may become slightly irrational while viewing, including but not limited to swearing you can beat up anyone sitting at the Applebee’s bar. Practicing submissions on children and pets may constitute “rolling Jiu-Jitsu” when striking up water cooler conversation at your nine-to-five. The conversation may also include your undefeated street fighting record and how you wish Michelle Waterson and Joanna Jedrzejczyk could fight on every card.

For the record, my German Shepherd, Moody, is well versed in escaping D’arce and Anaconda chokes. Back to Max Holloway, he’s the former Featherweight Champion and should have the “two-time” moniker in front of that title after being robbed in his last bout, a rematch against current Champion Alexander Volkanovski. The first Hawaiian UFC Champion, Max, defended the belt three times after winning the Interim title by defeating Anthony Pettis and unifying it by destroying the legend, Jose Aldo.

Max is a volume striker with excellent technical skills and naturally utilizes both stances. He sways melodiously back and forth like a cobra, which allows him to stay loose and snap punches from different angles. Power isn’t part of Holloway’s game; overwhelming pressure is. Holloway can simply push a pace that few fighters can sustain throughout five rounds.

Pay close attention to Holloway’s hand position when striking. He keeps his hands high and out in front of him rather than tight to his face. This shortens the distance his punches have to travel and makes him quicker, and he can also use the same hand position to deflect the opponent’s attacks. A squared stance (both shoulders in alignment) gives the effect of having two crosses (power punches) rather than a traditional jab and cross. Holloway's use of a squared stance also allows him to switch from orthodox to southpaw fluidly during combinations.

Defensively, Max isn’t the soundest; he relies too much on his chin and takes a lot of punishment because of it. Leg kicks; if you’re new to the Weekly Knockout, you’ll hear me say a thousand times how underutilized they are. Well-timed leg kicks can take any fighter out of their game plan and render them almost useless after taking just one or two. Max doesn’t defend leg kicks, and it’s a huge reason he is no longer champion.

The game plan; Max fights at a much closer range than Calvin Kattar does, and he doesn't give up the pocket without resistance, using slips and counters rather than vacating completely. He wants to turn this fight into a firefight. Kattar is a notoriously slow starter, and Max should look to come out aggressive and stay in his chest from the opening bell. He will need to cut off the ring and trap Kattar against it so he can unload with lengthy combinations and wear Kattar down to the body.

Kalvin Kattar is a coach’s example of the perfect fundamental technique. He keeps his hands up and elbows in, maintaining a very effective handguard that he can use to absorb or parry strikes. There’s no wasted motion, no tales to key in on and look to counter. Rivaling my incessant leg kick preaching, the most important strike in all of the combat sports is the jab. Everything works off of the jab, and you’ll notice a huge discrepancy in how often it is utilized in boxing versus MMA. It’s not enough in MMA, but Kattar is the exception.

Kattar’s jab is a piston that he keeps in his opponent’s face, and it creates openings to attack the body and land his right hand. Vasiliy Lomachenko (I don’t want to talk about the Teofimo Lopez fight) is my favorite boxer. One of his trademark techniques is using full-length feints, kind of like shadowboxing out of reach, to probe the opponent’s defense and use the momentum to propel strikes. Kattar uses this technique to close the distance and initiate combinations. This technique led to his TKO victory over Ricardo Lamas.

In addition to his excellent jab, Kattar uses a Jose Aldo-like liver strike that takes his head off centerline and lines up his right hand. He digs the body with his lead hand often, sapping the opponent’s energy and lowering their hands to defend. This opens up head strikes and makes him much more difficult to defend against than a headhunter who will waste energy landing punches on the arms.

If you’re claustrophobic, don't fight Calvin Kattar; he cuts the ring off and boxes you in, limiting your options to either come forward or cover up. Kattar’s short, quick strikes can allow him to fight effectively in the pocket, but I think he won’t want to test Holloway at one of his strengths. Kattar will attempt to use the jab and establish his range on the outside and pepper Max with low calf kicks; slowly work his way inside.

Two red flags: one, Kattar often tries to be too precise with his striking, always looking for the perfect moment to engage, and this leads to low output and giving rounds away. Two, he has a serious issue with his nose; it’s been broken in his last two fights and is a reoccurring problem.

When it comes to Fantasy rosters, you can’t go wrong with either guy. I see this fight going the distance and will allow for plenty of significant strikes landed. On Saturday night, you will see as high a level of striking as there is in the game. This will be Chess, Checkers, Jenga, Operation, Hungry Hungry Hippos, Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots, all that. Don’t start 2021 by missing this fight, homies. Pick ‘em time. I’ve had months to think about this matchup, and I still have no clue who wins it. I’m reluctantly taking Max Holloway to slowly break down Kattar with volume and relentless pressure. However, I think Kattar has the best chance to win by a stoppage. Okay, put it on wax; Max Holloway via decision.

Winner: Max Holloway | Method: Decision

Matt Brown (+140 ) vs Carlos Condit (-170)

Brown: DK: $7.5k, FD: $14 | Condit: DK:$8.7k, FD: $16

Carlos Condit, aka Mickey Knox, is a straight-up MMA legend. The Natural Born Killer is the most fitting nickname in MMA history. Carlos is the Former WEC Welterweight Champion and Interim UFC Welterweight Champion; his style was as violent as an Oliver Stone 90's movie. Notice, I said was.

Up until last October, Condit hadn’t recorded a win inside the Octagon since 2015. My man was hoarding L’s, five straight and six of his last seven. Then he beat Court McGee three months ago and… and he actually looked legit again. He was aggressive, was willing to engage and not just sit back and counter, and he mixed up his attacks. It was Court McGee; I get it. It wasn’t 2014 Nick Diaz, but still. 

In his prime (late 2000’s/early 2010’s), Condit was one of the most aggressive fighters in the game. Hand and kick combinations from odd angles, vicious standing elbows, spinning attacks, and a slick grappling style all made him a fan favorite. Slowly, after countless wars, his style became that of a counter fighter. And it worked. He beat Nick Diaz for the Interim belt and frustrated Diaz by rarely coming forward and firing off kicks and hand combinations every time Diaz pressured. Then Condit blew his knee out against Tyron Woodley, and he became a Flat Earther’s exhibit A, the burden of proof because Carlos fell off the face of it.

Don’t F@!# with Matt Brown’s snus. If such a thing existed in 2008, Matt Brown would have been immortalized, like his nickname, in the meme hall of fame when he was on The Ultimate Fighter. He almost recorded the first in-house KO when a fellow contestant put lemon juice in his dip. The incident epitomized Brown’s whole persona and fight style, rough, rugged, in your face, and relentless.

In many ways, Brown is a parallel dimension mirror image of Carlos Condit without the fancy kicks. Rarely taking a step back, Brown’s trademark is aggression with awkward hand and elbow combinations. Any part of the body that can be used legally in an MMA fight, Matt Brown throws it. He makes fights ugly, in the clinch, on the mat, in the center of the Octagon, wherever.

Matt Brown has lost four of his last six bouts, including his most recent against a young promising prospect, Miguel Baeza, last May. Brown was TKO’d early in the second round, but had the young buck dead-to-rights, all but finished in the first round after landing a nasty knee. He, too, throws combinations from odd angles but lacks the well-timed counters of Carlos Condit.

Both fighters retired, Brown more briefly than Condit, and both are convinced they still have something left in the tank. This is the perfect fight for both fighters, but it’s probably ten years too late, much like Pacman vs. Mayweather. I still think this will be a fight of the night candidate, with both fighters having a lot to prove. Significant strikes should be high as I think this fight goes the distance. I’m taking Carlos Condit via decision. Mostly because I want to see one of two things: Carlos Condit vs. Nick Diaz 2 or Carlos Condit vs. Tyron Woodley 2, and for that to happen, Condit needs a dub.

Winner: Carlos Condit | Method: Decision

Santiago Ponzinibbio (-300) vs. Li Jingliang (+230)

Ponzinibbio: DK: $9.3k, FD: $23 | Jingliang: DK: $6.9k, FD: $9

This is a showcase fight for Santiago Ponzinibbio. Ponzinibbio hasn’t fought since 2018 and was last seen stealing Neil Magny's ham sammich and snapping his Capri Sun straw, rendering it virtually undrinkable. He bullied Magny, trapped him against the cage, and teed off on him with power shots for four rounds while all the other kids kept a lookout for the hall monitor. Before his hiatus, Ponzi was on a seven-fight win streak and was the winner of nine of his last ten bouts. Five of those wins were via TKO/KO, and Ponzi has twenty-one total finishes in twenty-seven professional fights.

Ponzinibbio has an educated lead hand that he throws from varying angles as a jab and as a hook. He’s judicious with his right hand and rarely deploys it without a lead hand escort using his jab like a boxer to set up his power strikes. Both Santiago’s hands carry fight-ending power, but his three-quarters overhand right is the college tuition fundraiser.

Like a baseball field, the Octagon has a warning track, a black line around the mat like the outer ring of a bull’s-eye that allows a fighter to judge how far the cage is. Good fighters use that outline to establish zones, areas they want to attack or avoid depending on the game plan. Ponzinibbio likes to pressure his opponents, forcing them to fight outside of that warning track. He cuts off the cage and any routes of escape while the opponent is trapped against it.

Li Jingliang is a tough out for most fighters in the welterweight division. He’s won seven of his last nine fights but dropped a decision to Neil Magny in his most recent outing. It’s not just Li’s resemblance to one of Sauron’s minions that makes his style ugly. He’s a grinder who will work takedowns from the clinch, press you up against the cage, and work trips and body lock takedowns to sap your energy.

The striking advantage emphatically goes to Ponzinibbio, but Li has sneaky power in his hands and an awkward style that has produced six UFC KO/TKO victories. That being said, Li’s path to victory is using his wrestling and controlling top position, and working his ground and pound. Li will have to commit to heavy combinations to get inside on Ponzinibbio and not allow himself to get pushed beyond the warning track where he will be a sitting duck. He absolutely has to stay in the center of the Octagon.

I’m taking Santiago Ponzinibbio via TKO, round three. I can’t see Li Jingliang mustering enough offense on his feet to really threaten Ponzinibbio with takedowns, resulting in a long night for Jingliang.

Winner: Santiago Ponzinibbio | Method: TKO Rd.3

Joaquin Buckley (-280 ) vs Alession di Chirico (+220)

Buckley: DK: $9.4k, FD: $22 | di Chirico: DK: $6.8k, FD: $8

“Hey Siri, what was the 2020 knockout of the year?” That’s Joaquin Buckley landing the jumping spinning back kick to Impa Kasanganay's face. And any fight with Buckley as one of the participants is a certified banger. He’s a big, aggressive power puncher who throws everything with intentions to end the fight. Buckley’s not the most technical striker; he tends to swing from the waist wide arcing punches, but he makes up for lack of technique with speed and pressure.

Di Chirico is 3-5 in the UFC but could easily be 5-3. He lost a close decision that I thought he won to the 2020 MVP, Kevin Holland, who won five fights in the year. He reminds me of a less aggressive Italian Shogun Rua in the way he strikes. Alessio is in every fight until the end and throws bombs that can end a fight at any moment. He’s lost three in a row but was coming on strong late in all of those fights. Grimey, one of my favorite characteristics of a fighter. Di Chirico is that, and his opponents often take him lightly and usually have “Oh S!@t” expressions on their faces by the end of the first round.

In eight UFC bouts, di Chirico has only been finished one time, and that finish was by submission. He loses close fights because he leaves too much dead air, too much time spent in a defensive shell rather than attacking. I’m taking Buckley here, but I’m hesitant about picking a finish. Joaquin Buckley via decision. He’s not a high-output striker, but he provides plenty of potential fight-ending sequences, and that makes him a solid roster pick-up.

Winner: Joaquin Buckley | Method: Decision

Punahele Soriano (+135 ) vs Dusko Todorovic (-165)

Soriano: DK: $7.7k, FD: $12 | Todorovic: DK: $8.5k, FD: $19

*Fight Of The Night*

Dusko Todorovic has a first-round TKO victory over Michel Pereira, which led to his invite to the Contender Series. He’s light on his feet and bounces around the cage, always throwing peppering shots. His footwork is sneaky and allows him to find creative entries into the pocket. From the inside, Dusko throws slapping kicks and punches; he strikes to land more than he strikes with the intent to KO his opponent. Dusko likes to use the cage to dirty box and head-fight to wear down his opponents in the clinch.

At nearly seven significant strikes landed per minute, Todorovic is a good Fantasy roster addition. His striking is dynamic and will create opportunities for a fight-ending sequence. I don’t know much about his ground game; it could be a liability in this bout as Soriano is more than capable of scoring takedowns.

Punahele Soriano has options in this fight. He can take his chances standing and banging and use aggressive forward pressure to stifle Dusko against the cage and land heavy power shots. Or he can take the fight to the mat and implement his equally dangerous ground and pound. A southpaw, Punahele throws combos almost exclusively, no single shots, just looping overhands and hooks sold in buy one, get one value packs. Todorovic tends to get lazy against the cage, relying on head movement without footwork to escape danger; Soriano will want to key in on that to find entries for takedowns.

This should be an entertaining fight and definitely worthy of the sleeper fight of the night honors. If this stays standing, someone is likely to get finished. I’m taking Todorovic; he’s slick and has a unique style that’s hard to prepare for. Oh, and Dusko is 10-0 with nine stoppages. Soriano is also undefeated at 7-0 with six stoppages, but I’m taking Dusko Todorovic via second-round TKO. There’s definitely value in Soriano on your roster; he could definitely win this fight and emphatically at that.

Winner: Dusko Todorovic | Method: TKO Rd.2

Prelims

Highlighted Matchup

Phil Hawes (-135 ) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (+105)

Hawes: DK: $8.8k, FD: $18 | Imavov: DK: $7.4k, FD: $14  

This is an excellent card, and you can add another matchup to the list of bangers on it. Phil Hawes has traveled a Land Rover car commercial path to the UFC. He was on the Ultimate Fighter in 2016 and was bounced from the show by the tough Andrew Sanchez. He then fought for the World Series of Fighting, Bellator, and was on the Contender Series twice.

Hawes is a huge wrestler whose striking has improved dramatically since his stint on the Ultimate Fighter. Another wrestler striker, Hawes, has heavy power punches but has also developed a solid jab, which he uses more traditionally to set up power shots. The power double-leg is his go-to takedown and is highly effective when he initiates it from the center of the cage. He’s coming off an eighteen second KO in his return to the UFC in October.

If your opponent’s last name ends in ‘ov, ‘ev, or ‘aev, you’re in trouble. Nassourdine Imavov is a technically sound, well-rounded fighter. A smooth striker, Imavov has a perpetual bounce with continual lateral movement; he will want to stay outside the pocket and keep his strikes long against Hawes. Imavov slips and counters effectively with a step back right hand, making him a multi-directional striker. But he also sustains a lot of damage because he tends to get too nonchalant, too cool for school.

Both fighters are excellent grapplers, and taking the fight to the ground would be in both of their interests. This will be an exciting fight wherever it takes place and is a complete toss-up. The best chance of scoring a finish definitely goes to Hawes. Both are low output strikers, so I would lean toward Hawes for Fantasy rosters for that reason. But Imavov is a relatively unknown sleeper and a legitimate option in a fifteen-minute fight. Phil Hawes via decision, you know where to put it. On wax.

Winner: Phil Hawes | Method: Decision

Fighters to Consider

Carlos Filipe (-200 ) DK: $8.6k, FD: $20

I like this matchup for Carlos Felipe and the chances that Felipe can score a finish. When he lets his hands go, he’s a lot to handle and has technical boxing. He’s aggressive in spurts and throws combinations while changing levels with his strikes. He’s coming off a decision win against another respectable striker, Yorgan De Castro, back in October. Felipe’s takedown defense is suspect, but his opponent, Justin Tafa, likely won’t look to take this fight to the mat.

Carlos has one-punch KO power, and he can overwhelm his opponent with combinations and volume. Justin Tafa is not an elusive fighter; he’s slow and plodding and can’t match Felipe’s hand speed. I think this is a good fight to pick up fight-ending Fantasy points, and I’m taking Felipe via second-round TKO.

Yanan Wu (-120) DK: $8.4k, FD: $19

Yanan Wu “Tang” is a long, combination striker who maintains her distance on the outside with lead leg sidekicks. What she lacks in power, she makes up for in output. She likes to time her opponents and counters simultaneously, with short two to three-punch combinations. The unofficial member of the Protect Ya Neck crew can also score timely double leg takedowns behind her striking to keep Edwards guessing. I like this matchup for Yanan; Edwards has a solid Muay Thai background and is a monster early in fights, but fades heavy if she can't score a quick finish. Also, The Wu is a tough task for any top-ten fighter, much less a debutante.

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleeper

Every card, I look for an underdog with value, a fighter who’s not only an underdog but can actually win the fight. I usually drop a ten spot or a good ol’ twenty-twen-twen on that fighter and let the chips fall where they may. For this card, I’m dropping that Jackson on Alessio di Chirico. As I said, he’s grimey.

Picke 'Em

Yanan Wu (-120 ) vs. Joselyne Edwards (-110 )

Winner: Yanan Wu

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Carlos Felipe (-200 ) vs. Justin Tafa (+160 )

Winner: Carlos Felipe

 Method: TKO Rd.2

David Zawada (+210) vs. Ramazan Emeev (-270)

Winner: David Zawada

 Method: Decision

Sarah Moras (-240) vs. Vanessa Melo (+190)

    Winner: Sarah Moras

 Method: Decision

Jacob Kilburn (+185) vs. Austin Lingo (-235)

    Winner: Austin Lingo

 Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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