We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Main Card

Curtis Blaydes (-450 ) vs. Derrick Lewis (+325)

Blaydes: DK: $9.4k, FD: $ | Lewis: DK: $6.8k, FD: $

“Hey, you okay?”  A man’s baritone voice called down to me; amusement teetered on its edge.  My eyes cracked then struggled open, the scene before them now much different than the one they closed on.  For starters, it was sideways now.  An artsy Tarantino ground-level shot from the perspective of a dead body watching its assailant flee.

After a quick check of my surroundings, it was clear it had been the jabroni wearing a pink Beefcake tank top with a Weight Gain 4000 protein shaker in his hand who had voiced his concern for my health.  He looked confused like he didn’t know the answer to a question no one asked.  With the shaker in constant motion, he just stared at me.

Half a dozen people gathered around, frozen in place with different levels of amusement snapshotted on their faces, from the “I’ll make sure he’s okay before I laugh” to the full-on hysterical, “(Bleep) that guy, did you see him eat s!@%?”

 “That was a bad fall, bro.  Mighta hit your head,” said Beefcake.  He was clearly bathing in a rich lather frothed from my misfortune.  Four treadmills down, one of the hysterical looky-loo’s was the Instagram model who I had been trying to impress with intermittent ten-mile per hour sprints.  Not because I thought I had a chance—I’m a happily married man—but because it’s just nice to know you still got it. 

“Nah, I think I’ll be alright.  I was just—

“I have it right here, it’s right here!”  The manager, a dead ringer for Nedry in Jurassic Park, jostled his way through the gathering crowd.  “He signed the waiver, I have it right here, he—.”  He paused when he saw me.  “Oh, you’re awake. Good.”  My head tilted, providing a smooth transition into a low-angle shot as he hovered over me. The journey from his office had been strenuous; he was out of breath, panting like a bulldog.  He waved a piece of paper at me, pointing to a chicken scratch signature at the bottom.

Finally relinquishing the fetal position, I managed to my feet and snatched the paper from his hand.  “It’s all good,” I said.  “I’m not gonna sue you or anything.  I was watching a Curtis Blaydes fight.  I must’ve fallen asleep.”  I looked down and saw my iPhone sitting cockeyed against an elliptical and picked it up.  The screen was still on, Curtis Blaydes was frozen, a human blanket lying on top of Alexander Volkov.  I stared at it in amazement.  “Holy s!@$,”  I said, “I made it to the third round.”

Sean Shelby is an unsung hero within the UFC and often doesn’t get the shine he deserves.  The UFC matchmaker since taking over for the legendary Joe Silva in 2016, Shelby has consistently put together the fights we want to see and many that we didn’t know we wanted to see.  In 2021 he’s off to an incredible start.  Even when cards lack big-name recognition, Shelby has delivered competitive fights from top to bottom on everyone.  However, sometimes circumstances in the form of division rankings force matchups we’d rather avoid either due to the likelihood of a lackluster contest or an inevitable outcome.  This weekend we have such a main event matchup, Derrick Lewis vs. Curtis Blaydes.

Derrick Lewis is one of the Great Wonders of the UFC.  He's a fan-favorite not only because of his lighthearted nature but also because he has lullabies in his fists that rock people to sleep.  Lewis is 14-5 in the UFC, and his two most recent losses came courtesy of former champions, including a Heavyweight title shot against the former Champ-Champ Daniel Cormier.  He has eleven KO’s in the UFC and has finished noineteen of his twenty-three professional victories.

Lewis doesn’t operate at a high strike rate, landing on average just two and a half strikes per minute.  He fights in spurts and has some of the most exciting and most boring fights in UFC history.  But Derrick Lewis fights can go from zero to one hundred real quick, as he can finish any fight, at any moment.

Curtis Blaydes is a solid fighter with an excellent record, but his style travels along the Corey Anderson spectrum.  He has KO power in his right hand and has ten KO’s on his record, but he perpetuates wrestling-heavy game plans that don’t always result in fan-friendly action.  It’s a winning formula that I can’t argue with; “Hello, you play to win the game,” said Herm Edwards, and he was right.

The winning game plan for Blaydes on Saturday night will be to stand with Lewis only for as long as is necessary to shoot a double leg and secure a takedown.  Lewis has terrible takedown defense and can only mount resistance from his back for a short stretch before he gasses and becomes a victim.  Lewis was in all kinds of trouble in his last fight against Aleksei Oleinik in the first round.  He was taken down and almost sub’d with a bulldog choke before surviving and KO’ing Oleinik in the second. 

If you’re looking for an underdog with value, the (+325) Lewis is definitely that.  He can win any fight with one punch, and that will be no different in this contest.  The safe bet is that Blaydes will dominate with takedowns and top control, and Lewis will gas midway through the second round.  Blaydes has heavy ground and pound and should score big significant strike numbers before finishing the fight in the fourth round.  Curtis Blaydes via TKO, round four.  

I know you’re thinking, how is a guy who has so many TKO/KO’s boring?  IDK, just watch a couple of his fights, and you’ll understand. I keed, I keed. Curtis Blaydes is actually a Fantasy monster, so make sure you have him or it'll be an uphill climb.

Winner: Curtis Blaydes | Method: TKO Rd.4

Ketlen Vieira (-280 ) vs Yana Kunitskaya (+220)

Vieira: DK: $9.3k, FD: $ | Kunitskaya: DK:$6.9k, FD: $

Many would call Ketlen Vieira the female Corey Anderson or Curtis Blaydes, many meaning me.  An innocuous Vieira stat: she once had four takedowns and only recorded thirteen significant strikes in a fight that went the full three rounds.  She’s the epitome of a position grappler with a heavy top game.  But Ketlen only has one submission win in six UFC bouts.  Overall, she is 5-1, with the lone loss coming by first-round KO to Irene Aldana, an elite striker (not counting the Holly Holm fight).

When Vieira is unable to relocate the fight to the mat, she struggles on her feet.  Her standup is very rudimentary and stiff, complete with pushing punches and lack of movement.  Vieira is coming off a very close decision win against Sijara Eubanks, a fight in which Vieira scored two takedowns and fought to a stalemate on the feet.  Against Yana Kunitskaya, Vieira can’t afford to get stuck standing for long durations.

The only question for Yana Kunitskaya is, can she stay on her feet?  If she can, Yana will pepper Vieira with shots from the outside, piecing her up decisively.  Yana has a full arsenal of attacks, kicks, and punches, with solid perpetual lateral movement.  She uses her jab well and throws short combinations from the fringe of the pocket.  Kunitskaya will not want to get caught on the inside, where Ketlen has the best chance to land a heavy hook or overhand or score a takedown.

Kunitskaya also can score takedowns of her own and survive from her back.  She won’t be overwhelmed by Vieira’s ground game should she end up in the bottom position.   From a Fantasy standpoint, Kunitskaya is the only choice.  Even with multiple takedowns and prolonged top control time, Vieira doesn’t score many significant strikes.  Kunitskaya isn’t a high output striker by any means, but she’ll likely double even triple Vieira’s output.  On wax, Yana Kunitskaya via decision.

Winner: Yana Kunitskaya | Method: Decision

Charles Rosa (-190) vs. Darrick Minner (+155)

Rosa: DK: $8.8k, FD: $ | Minner: DK: $7.4k, FD: $

The only other “Darrick” I’ve ever seen spell his name with an “A” is my brother.  What does that have to do with the price of Truly’s at Costco?  Nothing, just saying.  Anywho, Darrick Minner is 25-11 with twenty-two submission victories, including eleven by guillotine choke. 

Missy Elliot wrote a song in the early 2000s about Minner; it’s called One Minute Man.  Minner is one to two minutes of fury; then he rolls over and smokes a cigarette.  Darrick is kill or be killed, and that’s usually decided very early in the fight.  Eight of his eleven losses are by submission, as he tends to hunt for guillotine chokes every chance he gets, and if he doesn’t land it, he ends up in terrible positions.  Nobody embodies the sentiments of “Protect Ya Neck,” like the unofficial twelfth member of the Wu-Tang Clan, Darrick Minner.

Minner’s major malfunction is his gas tank.  In thirty-six career fights, Minner has only gone to the third round twice and the second round seven times.  There is a fifty percent chance that he catches you in a guillotine in the first round, and after that, he has an eighty percent chance of getting his ass kicked.

Charles Rosa wants to be Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson soooooo bad.  Gorilla Black is a rapper best known for stealing Biggie’s whole entire style.  Google his song “Compton,” and you’ll understand what I’m talking about.  Charles Rosa tries to jack Wonderboy’s style the same way; no sources cited or annotated bibliography.  

He uses a bouncing, bladed Karate stance sporadically in his fights but then falls into a different, more traditional squared stance after a couple of exchanges.  His corner literally has to yell at him to “do the Wonderboy” for him to remember to go back to his Karate style.  When he does mighty morph into his Rex Kwon Do alter ego and starts bouncing, he’s going to throw a left cross ninety percent of the time.  

Rosa doesn’t have good hands and relies on a kick-heavy attack, kicks without setups, and he sustains a lot of damage because of it.  He reaches with punches and carries his hands low, a bad look, and he’s especially vulnerable to counters when he engages with combinations; he gets sloppy and off-balance.  But Rosa has excellent lateral movement, and over the course of a three-round fight, probably travels close to ten miles in the cage.

This is a toss-up. Rosa’s only concern is Minner’s guillotine attempts, and if he can stay out of harm’s way, he should be able to outwork Minner to a decision or late stoppage when Minner gases like he always does.  

I say that to say this; Minner’s upside as a Fantasy option is excellent.  If he snatches your neck, he’s mounting your head on his wall.  Early stoppage points, that’s Minner’s upside.  Charles Rosa via head-and-arm choke, round three.

Winner: Charles Rosa | Method: Arm Triangle Rd.3

Aleksei Oleinik (+155 ) vs Chris Daukaus (-190)

Oleinik: DK: $7.6k, FD: $ | Daukaus: DK: $8.6k, FD:

Like your granny’s underoos, there’s nothing sexy about Aleksei Oleinik’s style.  He’s slow, plodding, non-explosive, and looks like an old James Bond 007 villain.  But, Oleinik has some of the gaudiest career stats that you’ll ever see.  Oleinik has over seventy MMA bouts, including twelve in the UFC with an 8-5 record.  His last three UFC losses came via KO/TKO.  He has fourteen Ezekiel choke victories and forty-six total submission victories on his record, and out of fifty-nine total wins, he has finished all but five fights.  That’s fifty-four finishes for all you using your hands to count.  

The Ezekiel choke finishes are especially impressive because he finished some of those while being mounted on the bottom.  Think about that.  Unfortunately for Oleinik, his standup is clumsy and consists of mostly wide power shots to close the distance to initiate the clinch or a takedown attempt.  Without takedowns, Oleinik is almost helpless in this fight.

The Daukaus curse is real.  Last summer, I famously wrote on this here newsletter about Chris Daukaus: “Daukus is a $7,700 Fantasy cap hit, and you might as well wipe your Fantasy ass with that $7,700.”  He went on to win via first-round TKO and made Denver omelets with the egg on my face.  Then last October, with a chance to make amends, I once again wrote him off: “It’s not you, Daukaus; it’s me.  I’m just not sold.  I’m canceling after the trial period; I’m not buying it.”  He won that fight in forty-five seconds.   

Daukaus has deceptive hand speed and footwork and works his way into the pocket behind his jab.  He is almost exclusively a boxer wearing four-ounce gloves, but he throws short, quick combinations and throws his hooks palm-down.  That allows him to land with his first two knuckles around the opponent's guard and cause a lot of damage.  The knocks against Daukaus are the level of competition faced and the unknown competency of his ground game.

Chris’s brother, Kyle, is also in the UFC and is a very sound grappler, and gave Brendan Allen all he could handle on the ground.  I would have to think Chris has similar grappling chops.   So that leaves me with only one thing left to do, put it on wax.

This is a big moment in Weekly Knockout history.  Chris Daukaus via first-round TKO.  If Daukaus loses this one, I don’t know where he and I will go from there.  He absolutely has to avoid the ground, especially early, and even if he ends up in top position, he can’t let Aleksei break his posture with that Ezekiel choke.

Winner: Chris Daukaus | Method: TKO Rd.1

Phillip Hawes (-125 ) vs Nassourdin Imavov (-105)

Hawes: DK: $8.2k, FD: $ | Imavov: DK: $8k, FD: $

Phil Hawes has traveled a Land Rover car commercial path to the UFC.  He was on the Ultimate Fighter in 2016 and was bounced from the show by the tough Andrew Sanchez.  He then fought for the World Series of Fighting, Bellator, and was on the Contender Series twice.    

Hawes is a huge wrestler whose striking has improved dramatically since his stint on the Ultimate Fighter.  Another wrestling striker, Hawes, has heavy power punches but has also developed a solid jab, which he uses more traditionally to set up power shots.  The power double-leg is his go-to takedown and is highly effective when he initiates it from the center of the cage.  He’s coming off an eighteen second KO in his return to the UFC in October.

I’ve said it before; if your opponent’s last name ends in ‘ov, ‘ev, or ‘aev, you’re up Poo Creek without any floaties.  Nassourdine Imavov is a technically sound, well-rounded fighter.  A smooth striker, Imavov has a perpetual bounce with continual lateral movement; he will want to stay outside the pocket and keep his strikes long against Hawes.  Imavov slips and counters effectively with a step back right hand, making him a multi-directional striker.  But he also sustains a lot of damage because he tends to get too nonchalant, too cool for school.

Both fighters are excellent grapplers, and taking the fight to the ground would be in both of their interests.  This will be an exciting fight wherever it takes place and is a complete toss-up.  The best chance of scoring a finish definitely goes to Hawes.  Both are low output strikers, so I would lean toward Hawes for Fantasy rosters for that reason.  But Imavov is a relatively unknown sleeper and a legitimate option in a fifteen-minute fight.  Phil Hawes via decision.

Winner: Phil Hawes | Method: Decision

Andrei Arlovski (+200 ) vs Tom Aspinall (-260)

Arlovski: DK: $7k, FD: $ | Aspinall: DK: $9.2k, FD: $

I’ll keep this as short as this fight is likely to be.  This one has a high likelihood of ending in the first round, and the fighter whose first name ends in “drei” and last name ends in “ski” is likely to be on the receiving end of said early finish.  

It’s simple, Tom Aspinall is 9-2, and the only fights that went past the first round were his two losses. He is on a five-fight first round finishing streak, and all of them are under a minute and a half.  Combine that with a diminished Andrei Arlovski in every measurable trait, and it's Bad News Bears for the legend Arlovski.  The Pitbull hasn’t finished a fight since 2015 and really only survives in lackluster snooze fests now.

Aspinall is too fast and too powerful for the 2021 version of Andrei Arlovski.  And although Aspinall isn’t without major holes in his striking, Arlovski is too slow and too passive to take advantage of them.  Tom Aspinall via TKO, round one.

Winner: Tom Aspinall | Method: TKO Rd.1

Prelims

Highlighted Matchups

Nate Landwehr (-110 ) vs. Julian Erosa (-120)

Landwehr: DK: $8.1k, FD: $ | Erosa: DK: $8.1k, FD: $  

*Fight OF The Night*

 Nate Landwehr is thirty-two years old going on fifty-five; he’ll crack your ass then sell you a set of Encyclopedias and a kitchen knife set.  You won’t forget Nizzy Nate Landwehr.  This guy is off the leash squatting on lawns, wild.  He utilizes non-stop forward pressure and engages in careless, dangerous exchanges, and will never be in a boring fight.  He can counter strike moving backward, attack with extended combinations, and initiate chaotic scrambles on the ground.  

Go check out Nate’s last fight against Darren Elkins.  By the end, it looked like the pig blood scene from the Stephen King adapted movie, Carrie.  Defense isn’t a concern of Landwehr’s.  He prefers not to waste energy defending or eluding strikes; he just eats 'em.  All of 'em.

Julian Erosa had a rough go in his first stint with the UFC but made a comeback last summer with a monster victory over the undefeated Sean Woodson on short notice.  Erosa is gritty and grimey and will hang around even when he’s the lesser skilled fighter in the cage.  He has twenty-four professional wins and twenty-one finishes; he finds ways to finish fights.  

Erosa will be at a speed and technical disadvantage against Landwehr in the standup, but Erosa maintains forward pressure even when he’s getting pieced-up Willie.  He doesn’t always make good striking decisions and gets caught in firefights.  At times Erosa starts to look like a VR boxing opponent.  He’s the third opponent you fight on story mode right after you lose your job, and have to fight in an empty swimming pool, entertaining elites so you can feed your family.

The likeliest path to victory for Julian will be on the mat, but this is all but guaranteed to feature exciting back and forth exchanges.  This has proverbial war written all over it.  Give me Nate Landwehr via decision.  Have one of these guys on your roster.  Erosa is a serious submission threat if he gets the fight to the mat; he is particularly handy with D’arce and Anaconda chokes.

Winner: Nate Landwehr | Method: Decision

Chas "Mulder and" Skelly (+190 ) vs. Jamall Emmers (-240 )

Skelly: DK: $7.4k, FD: TBD | Emmers: DK: $8.8k, FD: TBD

I haven’t been outside of San Diego in a while, and I’m not sure how big Taco Shops are in other states, but Skelly is the guy wearing flip-flops holding up the line asking if the “Peeeco” has onions. Of course, it does, Chas. If it didn’t, it wouldn’t be pico.  It would be tomatoes with little leaves.  The point is, don’t let the dad bod fool you; Chas Skelly is a tough-out for a lot of fighters in the featherweight division.

Skelly is a relentless wrestler/grappler, and if he latches on to any part of you, he will drag you to the ground.  His ground and pound is more annoying than fight-ending, and he’s more of a position grappler looking to constrict you slowly and hunt for a choke.  His specialty is head and arm chokes, variations of arm-triangles like Brabo/D’arce chokes and Anacondas.  This friendly message is brought to you by the letter Wu: Protect Ya Neck!

When it comes to striking, Chas’s ain’t pretty.  I’d liken Skelly’s striking to a five-year-old playing Street Fighter and mashing all the buttons at once; he closes his eyes and wings lefts and rights with kicks interspersed randomly.  Chas will need to get the fight to the ground A-double S-A-P.

Jamall Emmers reminds me of a bigger orthodox Michael Johnson; hand speed and reach for days but gets into wild exchanges and takes unnecessary damage.  Emmers is especially dangerous using the Thai Plum clinch; he delivers knees in rapid succession and elbows.  To further his up-the-middle attacks, he uses snap and teep kicks to maintain distance and to cause damage.

The striking advantage is heavily skewed in Emmers’s favor, especially when it comes to comparing outputs.  Skelly averages just two significant strikes landed per minute while Emmers averages over five.  Emmers isn’t all striking and has takedowns and solid grappling as well.  But Emmers won’t want to test his grappling against Skelly; he’ll want to stay outside the pocket and use his hand speed and short combinations to pick Skelly apart.  He’ll also try to time Skellys shot attempts with standing knees up the middle.

But don’t completely count out Skelly like I’m doing.  He has a huge advantage in a major category, experience.  Since 2014, Skelly has eleven fights in the UFC and is overall 7-3-1, while this will be Emmers’s fourth fight in the big show.  Pick up Jamall Emmers, and makes sure to put it on wax, Jamall Emmers via decision.

Winner: Jamall Emmers | Method: Decision

Standout Fighter

Danny Chavez (-145) DK: $8.4k, FD: $

Danny Chavez throws bombs and lots of them.  He strikes in all directions, whether countering or attacking and uses the dreaded low calf kick, as well as the traditional leg kick to the thigh.  Speed.  Everything this guy does is fast; he can wipe and pick up his drawers before it even hits the water.  Like a mini Chuck Liddell, Chavez carries his hands low, but it allows him to throw from less traditional angles and helps him defend takedowns.  

If it’s not worth giving one hundred percent, it’s not worth doing, and Danny Chavez takes that to heart with every strike he throws.  His finishing rate won’t reflect the power he possesses, only three TKO/KO’s in eleven pro wins, but that isn’t from lack of trying.  Chavez made his debut on short notice last August and dominated a very tough T.J. Brown.  Danny will face Jared Gordon this weekend, and Chavez should have a decided advantage on the feet.  Give him a look.

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

I finally got the main event correct last week; I told you, Usman's strikes just have a different effect when he touches you. But I dropped twenty on Burns, who had odds many people couldn't pass up, and Burns was a follow-up strike or two away from pulling off the upset in the opening minutes. However, close only counts in horseshoes and...

I love the (+210) to (+250) range, and Yana Kunitskaya falls into that range. I think she can force a predominantly standup fight by peppering Vieira from the outside and work her way to a win behind superior striking stats. Aleksei Oleinik at (+155) and the debutante Patrick Sabatini at (+170), are also two underdogs with good value.

Pick 'Em

Jared Gordon (+115 ) vs. Danny Chavez (-145 )

            Winner: Danny Chavez

 Method: Decision

Drakkar Klose (-170 ) vs. Luis Pena (+140)

            Winner: Drakkar Klose

 Method: Decision

Eddie Wineland (-105 ) vs. John Castaneda (-125 )

Winner: John Castaneda

 Method: Decision

Nate Landwehr (+125) vs. Julian Erosa (-155)

    Winner: Nate Landwehr

 Method: Decision

Rafael Alves (-200 ) vs. Patrick Sabatini (+170 )

    Winner: Patrick Sabatini

 Method: Decision

Shana Dobson (+115) vs. Casey O'Neill (-145)

    Winner: Casey O'Neill

 Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Chas Skelly (+190) vs. Jamall Emmers (-240)

    Winner: Jamall Emmers

 Method: Decision

Aiemann Zahabi (+150) vs. Drako Rodriguez (-185)

    Winner: Drako Rodriguez

 Method: Decision

Sergey Spivak (-250) vs. Jared Vanderaa (+195)

    Winner: Sergey Spivak

 Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves. 

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy. 

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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