Welcome to the inaugural LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

When the UFC announced the location of Fight Island on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, complete with pictures of an Octagon practically floating in the teal water, I immediately thought, UFC Tekken.  Dana White, that mother!@#$er did it again!  We’ve seen it done before—adding candy bar pieces to ice cream, pineapples to pizza—taking something thought to be perfect and somehow improving upon it.  Anything was possible; Hadoukens and Shoryukens legalized under newly adopted international unified rules, anything. 

Then it was fight night, and there was no beach, not even a blown up Bob Ross painting hanging from the rafters.  In reality, the fights took place in a hanger like the old Fight For the Troops cards on Spike TV.  Even though I was expecting Avatar Ring Girls and Pterodactyls flying in the background, the actual events were stellar.  All of them.

On Aug 1, the UFC will return to its home base in Las Vegas, Nevada, with UFC Fight Night Brunson vs. Shahbazyan.  At first glance, the card’s not a head-turner.  You have to squint a little before you can discern any desirable features.  But I’m here to tell you, this card is an example of blue-collar workers producing executive-level results. 

This card is a solid mix of UFC debutants, young, experienced talent, and savvy veterans.  I’m going to give you a straight-up pick-em, and from the winners, I’ll give you the lady and gentlemen I think can take advantage of their matchups and put up some winning fantasy numbers.  I’ll even give you a couple of under-the-radar long shots that could be the difference between losing your hard-earned three dollars and flipping it into twelve dollars like a boss.

After watching fights all weekend, and missing most of the 90 Day Fiancé Season Five marathon, I’ve come to believe that finishes are going to come as a premium on Saturday night.  Most of these fights are going to go the distance and will be tight, tactical contests, and few of the combatants stand out as Fantasy point stat stuffers.  There are no Khamzat Chimaev’s—the guy who, within eleven days, recorded two first-round TKO’s after throwing one hundred significant strikes in a three-minute fight—on this card.  But enough gum-bumping, let’s get this shindig on and poppin’.

Main Card

Derek Brunson (+240) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (-310)

Brunson: DK: $7.1k, FD: $13 | Shahbazyan: DK: $9.1k, FD: $20

This one is as close to a guaranteed finish as there is on this card. If you don’t know who Edmen Shahbazyan is, you will after this fight. Shahbazyan is undefeated at 11-0 with ten finishes, nine by KO/TKO and one by submission. He is 4-0 in the UFC with his last fight coming last November on the BMF card against veteran Brad Tavares. Shahbazyan ended that fight with a first round head kick KO. He also had one fight on Dana White’s Contender Series and won in forty-seconds via, you guessed it, TKO. 

Shahbazyan’s biggest advantage is in the standup, but he is also capable on the ground where Brunson is, no doubt, going to want to take the fight. Brunson is going to have to wade through choppy waters to get takedowns. Brunson tends to lead with his head and throw wide, wild punches, which usually works to his benefit by causing chaos. However, this spells danger for Brunson against Shahbazyan, who controls distance well and counters effectively. He’s a combo puncher/kicker, and Brunson’s reckless aggression plays perfectly into Shahbazyan’s strengths.

Winner: Edmen Shahbazyan | Method: TKO Rd.2

Joanne Calderwood (-185) vs. Jennifer Maia (+155)

Calderwood: DK: $8.7k, FD: $16 | Maia: DK: $7.5k, FD: $12

Jojo is the better fighter in this one, but both of these fighters only lose to top-level competition. Maia is an Invicta and UFC veteran with decent standup for the famished Flyweight Division. The UFC needs Calderwood to win to have a half-legitimate contender to sacrifice to Valentina Shevchenko. Scheduled to fight for the title in April before it fell through, Calderwood is taking a huge risk here. 

Maia is entering her fifth UFC bout but has yet to finish a fight, with all four previous bouts going the distance. Calderwood does not frequently end fights either, so I wouldn’t expect a finish in this bout.

The value in Jojo is in her high punch stats, six significant strikes landed per minute, and has hovered around ninety fantasy points in three of her last four bouts. She has also landed over one hundred significant strikes in each of her last two bouts. She is aggressive, with the gas tank to keep up the pace for fifteen minutes.

Winner: Joanne Calderwood | Method: Decision

Vicente Luque (-190) vs. Randy Brown (+155)

Luque: DK: $8.8k, FD: $17 | Brown: DK: $7.4k, FD: $15

I really want to put the chalk down and dabble with some watercolors on this one, but Vicente Luque is seasoned and 11-3 in the UFC. His two most recent losses were to Wonderboy Thompson and top contender Leon Edwards. Luque out-lands Randy Brown 5.5 to 3.5 and has the heavier hands. What I like about Luque is his technical Muay Thai and his propensity to throw kicks in combination with his hands.  

Randy Brown has quietly amassed nine fights in the UFC and is relatively unknown. Unfortunately, he’s most known for looking like Woody when Andy walks into the room as a result of being KO’d by a Niko Price hammer fist from the bottom position. He’s long and durable and has finished ten of his twelve professional wins, including his last two bouts against Warlley Alvez and Brian Barberena. Brown is more than capable of pulling off the upset and would make a solid roster addition at a more affordable price. More on him in a minute.

Winner: Vicente Luque | Method: Decision

Lando Vannata (-145) vs. Bobby Green (+115)

Vannata: DK: $8.2k, FD: $18 | Green: DK: $8k, FD: $12

This will be the second time these fighters have met in the Octagon, with their first meeting coming back in 2017. That fight ended in a draw after Vannata partially landed an illegal knee and subsequently had a point deducted. Vannata boxed-up Green early in the first fight, but the final bell sounded with Bobby Green surging. Green was hurt twice in the fight, but by the end he looked to be the fresher fighter and showed a lot less wear and tear. Green is coming off a very close decision victory against Clay Guida last month in which he landed eighty-five significant strikes, and landed ninety-three against Vannata the first time they fought.  

Vannata is coming off an impressive win against the much bigger Yancy Medeiros back in February. Vannata is best known for making his UFC debut on very short notice against Tony Ferguson and almost shocking the world when he had Ferguson on Bambi’s legs in the first round. He went on to get submitted by Ferguson in the second round but showed his standup is good enough to hang with anyone at Lightweight. Vannata landed one hundred four significant strikes and four takedowns in the first matchup with Green.

Both of these fighters are going to score points in this fight, and their stats are nearly identical. You can’t get a more even matchup than this one, and their Fantasy Cap cost is only separated by $200. I’m taking Bobby Green to win the fight because I think he will avoid getting caught early in this one and can push a pace that will eventually wear Groovy Vannata down, who tends to fade late in fights.

Winner: Flips a coin…Bobby Green | Method: Decision

Kevin Holland (-210) vs. Trevin Giles (+165)

Holland: DK: $8.9k, FD: $19 | Giles: DK: $7.3k, FD: $11

I’ll keep this one short since I yip yapped on the last one. This is a tough fight for Giles who has cooled off a bit in his last three UFC bouts. He entered the UFC with two straight finishes then lost two of his next three as his competition went up a notch.

Holland is long and lanky with and endless gas tank. He pushes a high pace and can handle the fight wherever it goes. He mixes combinations, utilizes kicks, and can get takedowns when needed. Holland is a late replacement and has landed a favorable matchup.

Giles is going to want to clinch, get Holland against the fence, and work trips to get Holland to the mat. This will make for a low scoring affair, but if you’re in a salary pinch Giles might be a good option at $7,300 if he can get Holland down.

Damn, now that I’m writing this I’m starting to change my mind. I think Holland is going to get a third round finish.

Winner: Kevin Holland | Method: TKO Rd. 3

Prelims

Frankie Saenz (+175) vs. Jonathan Martinez (-225)

Saenz: DK: $7.6k, FD: $14 | Martinez: DK: $8.6k, FD: $17

Frankie Saenz is a little dusty at thirty-nine years old and Jonathan Martinez is rolling up with a can of Pledge and a Swiffer duster. I think this is the other solid opportunity for a finish but would likely come late in the fight, and would make him a possible less costly alternative to Shahbazyan. Martinez isn’t a volume striker and likes to maintain distance and engage in controlled exchanges. He is coming off a close loss to the very talented Andre Ewell.

Saenz is durable with decent standup and solid wrestling and grappling but was TKO’d early in the first round by Marlon Vera in his last fight. Martinez has very technical standup, and I love leg kickers which Martinez is. He stays on the outside in this one, and eventually lands something that will lead to a TKO victory late.

Winner: Jonathan Martinez | Method: TKO Rd. 3

(Note: Jonathan Martinez missed weight by 4.5lbs)

Ed Herman (+155) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (-190)

Herman: DK: $7.9k, FD: $13 | Meerschaert: DK: $8.3k, FD: $17

Tough one to call. Ed Herman is one of my favorite fighters and has been fighting in the UFC since back when I still had hair and had no idea what Low T was. Ed Herman wouldn’t be a bad pick here, as both have very similar games. Both are okay strikers but solid wrestlers/grapplers. This could be a middleweight Maia vs. Askren type fight with some fun transitions on the ground. Either way, it doesn’t make for a high fantasy point scoring fight.

Winner: Flips a Coin…Lands upright. Flips again…Gerald Meerschaert | Method: Decision

Ray Borg (-225) vs. Nate Maness (+175)

🚨 Update 🚨 Borg is out - Johnny Munoz to face Maness

Maness: DK: $7.2k, FD: $15 | Munoz: DK: $7.2k FD: TBD

Stay away from this fight. Nate Maness is making his UFC debut and has the same blank portrait that I do on the UFC website. There is very little fight footage available on Maness, but I do know Maness is 11-1 and a former champion in a minor league promotion. This could be one of those times that a relatively unknown comes in and smokes an aging veteran like when—let’s go way back— Joe Lauzon beat up his babysitter Jens Pulver back in 2006.

Ray Borg is infamous for his loss to the U-Haul dolly that Conor McGregor threw through the bus window a couple years ago. He has the ability to secure ten takedowns in a fight and still land less than twenty-five significant strikes. I don’t know how much Borg has left in the tank, but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt on this one. I have a weird feeling about how little we know about Maness, and why the UFC gave him Borg as a debut. This could be a trap fight.

Jamall Emmers (+160) vs. Timur Valiev (-195)

🚨 Update 🚨 Valiev is out - Vincent Cachero to face Emmers

Emmers: DK: $7.8k, FD: $12 | Cachero: DK: $6.9k, FD: TBD

The stage is set for Timur Valiev to make his anticipated UFC debut and come away with an impressive victory against UFC sophomore Jamall Emmers. The Dagestani Valiev is a PFL and WSOF veteran and possesses the Dagestani trademark, excellent wrestling. He has solid kickboxing and will use it to close the distance and work takedowns.

Jamall Emmers is making his second appearance in the UFC, his first being a robbery against the hyped kickboxer Giga Chikadze. I thought Emmers won that fight, and so did Chikadze. Emmers is athletic with excellent kickboxing and uses good fundamental head movement. He lands five significant strikes per minute and can keep that pace for the duration of the fight. This is a solid underdog pick. I think Emmers can stay on the outside and keep the fight standing for long stretches, turning this into a kickboxing match.

Winner: Jamall Emmers | Method: Decision

Chris Gutierrez (-315) vs. Cody Durden (+245)

Gutierrez: DK: $9.2k | Durden: DK: $7k

First off, if it turns out that Cody is related to Tyler Durden, then I’m out; I’m going with Cody. Chris Gutierrez has the highest Fantasy Salary Cap hit on the card and for a good reason. He has multiple TKO victories via leg kicks on his record, and as I’ve mentioned before, I love leg kickers. You have to have an answer for leg kicks, and most fighters don't. Gutierrez has fought the aforementioned Timur Valiev twice in the WSOF and holds a victory against him. Gutierrez is a kickboxer and manages distance very well and should be a heavy favorite.

Cody Durden…Who the fook is that guy? He has no fight footage available other than a kickboxing match that looked like my glory days fighting in a YMCA. From what I saw, Durden’s lead leg might need amputation after the fight. 

Winner: Chris Gutierrez | Method: TKO Leg Kicks Round 2

Fighters To Stay Away From:

Markus Perez & Ray Borg were my fighters to avoid. Now both fights are off. Good call.

Must Haves: 

Chris Gutierrez ($9,200) and Edmen Shahbazyan ($9,100): I think you have to have one or the other, as these are two fights that I can see ending early, and if you don’t have one of them, you could be playing catch up.

Throw in Vicente Luque too. He historically puts up solid Fantasy points as he’s always in standup wars and can finish any fight.

Sleepers:

Randy Brown ($7,400) and Jamall Emmers ($7,800):  These are two underdogs who I can see causing a lot of problems for their respective opponents.  Both are athletic and fight long and judge distance well.  I like Emmers’s matchup a little more after having seen him go three hard rounds in his last fight with an elite striker, Giga Chikadze. 

Fight Of The Night:

Lando Vannata ($8,200) vs. Bobby Green ($8,000): This was the fight of the night the first time these guys scrapped, and I expect nothing different this time around.  I would take one or the other on my roster because the loser will still put up some good Fantasy numbers.  Both are high energy/high output, and this one is likely to go the distance, with both being in the ballpark of one hundred significant strikes landed. 

Clearance Fighter (a cheap fighter with a chance to put up decent points):

Nate Maness ($7,200): I just have a feeling this guy could be a UFC secret weapon, a Mentat trained by the Bene Gesserit, and having suffered the Spice Agony.  If you know, you know.

Thanks for reading the inaugural LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and enjoy the fights!

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves. 

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy. 

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