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Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

UFC Fight Night Frankie Edgar vs. Pedro Munhoz

I was sitting at 5-4 with a guaranteed dub up next with Sugar Sean O’Malley standing in the on deck-circle.  Worst-case scenario, I was looking at an average night, MMA purgatory, 6-6.  Below me, stabbing me in the bum with three-pronged red pitchforks, were Colby Covington and Luke Rockhold, while GSP and Royce Gracie showered me with buckets of praise from above.

The Sugar Show came out picking Vera apart with an array of peppering kicks.  Then out of nowhere, O’Malley slipped on a banana peel and looked like a runway model with a vitamin D deficiency.  It was a wrap.  Wrap-It-Up-B; 5-5.

Next up, Daniel Cormier came out with no game plan and no obvious adjustments made from the second fight.  Throw in Stipe skewering Cormier’s eye with a finger in the third round, and it was the perfect ending to a rough night of picks; 5-6.

In all seriousness, there were some great performances at UFC 252; Daniel Pineda dominated Herbert Burns, and on the ground of all places.  Chris Daukaus romanced me, wining and dining me at a five-star beachfront restaurant, and served me heaping portions of my own words.  Marlon Vera set up the finishing sequence in that fight when he landed a nasty low calf kick that led to O’Malley losing feeling in his foot.  In the main event, Stipe Miocic proved he's just the better fighter and the GOAT among all MMA Heavyweights.

For Cormier, it’s a tough turd to push.  He’s still one of the greatest fighters of all time, and yes, he’s better than Fedor was when he was crushing cans at the recycling plant for a decade.            

There is good news, I don’t have to wait long to totally redeem myself when the combatants of UFC Fight Night Edgar vs. Munhoz take to the cage this weekend.  The bad news, the matchups feature many debuting fighters with completely different styles.  You’re going to have to scratch and claw for every Fantasy point you can get. 

I started my homework for this card late last week, and as I’m looking at the finalized lineup, several of the matchups have changed. The co-main event is now OSP vs. Alonzo Menifield, instead of the originally scheduled Shamil Gamzatov.  However, the main event between Frankie Edgar and Pedro Munhoz is still a go, so without any further gum bumping, let’s get into it.

Main Card

Frankie Edgar (+200) vs. Pedro Munhoz (-240)

Edgar: DK: $7.2k, FD: $18 | Munhoz: DK: $9k, FD: $21

I love Frankie Edgar.  Back in 2008, MTV had a show called True Life, a documentary series that focused on subcultures.  At the time, MMA was still considered a curse word, and the show followed two future UFC Champions, Frankie Edgar and Anthony Pettis.  Both were still fighting in the UFC’s smaller (but equally as competitive) promotion, the WEC, which held the lower weight classes 155, 145, and 135.  I assure you, I only watched MTV for the more insightful, in depth journalistic shows such as True Life and The Real World seasons 1-55.  

That was my introduction to Frankie Edgar, and I watched his rise to the top of the consistently deepest division in the UFC as an undersized lightweight.  His hand speed, lateral movement, and seamless transitions from striking to wrestling made him the most well-rounded fighter in the division.  The problem is, he doesn’t do many of those things at the high level that he once did.  He’s lost more than a step, he’s misplaced his chin as well. 

Edgar will be remembered most for the heart he showed in his fights with Gray Maynard.  The last two were fights in which Frankie was doing summersaults all over the cage in the first rounds, trying to survive Maynard’s onslaughts.  He went on to fight to a draw and KO’d Maynard in their final fight.  Unfortunately, I don’t think that Frankie Edgar is going to be stepping into the cage this weekend.  I hope I’m wrong, though.

Pedro Munhoz is what Edgar used to be but with more power and less wrestling.  His last fight was a year ago in which he fought, likely the next title challenger, Aljamain Sterling, to a very close decision loss.  Munhoz hurt Aljo in that fight several times with vicious leg kicks, front snap kicks to the body and heavy right hooks.  Before the Aljo fight, he had Cody Garbrandt looking like he was playing Twister, KO’ing him in the first round when the two got into a firefight.

Munhoz has only lost to top tier fighters and has never been finished in his twenty-two fight career.  He’s 8-4-1 in his thirteen-fight UFC career and has six finishes in the UFC.  He never stops throwing punches and kicks and is a Fantasy point stud.  In three of his last four fights he has averaged around one hundred twenty Fantasy points, and landed one hundred five significant strikes against Sterling in his last bout.

Frankie needs to get back to implementing wrestling into his game plan, but it’s going to be hard against Munhoz.  Pedro has only been taken down once in his last six fights and stuffed all of Sterling’s attempts.  I’ve said it before, leg kicks; you have to have an answer for them.  Either defend them, make the opponent pay for throwing them, or return them.  Frankie has to defend Munhoz’s leg kicks, use them to take him down, or punch through them.

Alright, Chris Daukus, bust out the hot wax from last Saturday night; Pedro Munhoz third-round TKO. 

Winner: Pedro Munhoz | Method: TKO Rd.3

Ovince Saint Preux (+105) vs. Alonzo Menifield (-135)

Saint Preux: DK: $7.9k, FD: $16 | Menifield: DK: $8.3k, FD: $17

I thought OSP dodged a bullet when I saw Shamil Gamzatov had to drop the fight.  Then I saw his new opponent was another monster in Alonzo Menifield.  Early odds have OSP as the dog in this fight, and I’m surprised given Menifield’s last fight against Devin Clark.  Clark survived the first round, and then Menifield visibly gassed and was taken down and held against the cage for the majority of the fight.

OSP can duplicate Clark’s game plan, and wear down Menifield in the clinch and against the cage.  OSP has submissions in his back pocket, specifically, The Von Preux Choke, which he has used to finish four fights from side control.  Striking, OSP is more dynamic, mixing unorthodox boxing with a variety of kicks.  

OSP’s major malfunction, his lack of aggression and unwillingness to throw anything for long stretches.  He’s a lot like John Dodson in that regard.  If OSP isn’t able to secure a submission early in a fight, he is a fantasy dud.  He simply does not throw/land enough significant strikes or secure takedowns.  His Fantasy Cap price is $7,900, and I started writing this with every intention of picking OSP to win via arm triangle in the second round.  But I’m not going to.

Menifield’s striking is a lot like a more technical Brock Lesnar, and he has finished all nine of his Pro wins with eight KO’s/TKO’s.  All but two of those wins came in the first round, with the other two ending within thirty seconds of the second round.  I think Menifield’s chances of finishing/winning the fight wane as the fight progresses passed the first round.  

His takedown defense is pretty solid, but he tends to get lazy against the cage, and he’s never thrown a jab in his life.  He’s a hooker (as in throws nothing but hooks), and OSP has to be careful with throwing naked kicks with no setup, as Menifield will punch right through them.

This is a complete toss-up.  Does OSP survive the first round and wear Menifield down with takedowns and clinch work, or does Menifield come out throwing bombs and catch OSP early?  I just don’t trust OSP to mount enough offense to ward off Menifield’s heavy punches.  At $8,300 and as a good a chance to produce an early finish as anyone on this card, I like Menifield, and he’s averaged seventy-six fantasy points in three UFC fights.  Menifield, second-round TKO.

Winner: Alonzo Menifield | Method: TKO Rd.2

Marcin Prachnio (+185) vs. Mike Rodriguez (-235)

Prachnio: DK: $7.3k, FD: $14 | Rodriguez: DK: $8.9k, FD: $19

This is a traditional Muay Thai striker versus a wild, throw-crap-against-the-wall-to-see-if-it-sticks type striker.  Prachnio is the latter, and one look at him and you’ll think he put Walter White’s kids through college.  He is good at getting KO’d in the UFC as he’s 0-2 with two KO’s.  His last fight was against the killer who was scheduled to fight Ion Cutelaba last week, Magomed Ankalaev.

He was previously undefeated before entering the UFC, with several fights in One FC.  A Kirkland Brand Keith Jardine, Prachnio has a herky-jerky style and only throws power shots, both kicks, and punches.  Another notorious hooker, he tends to lead with his head and throw no-look looping wide punches.

Mike Rodriguez is huge, and long, and throws a lot of traditional Muay Thai combinations, i.e., finishing hand combos with kicks and vice versa.  Rodirguez doesn’t use his long reach very well at times, leaning over his lead leg and falling into his punches.  That could be a habit he pays dearly for against a guy who head hunts like Prachnio.

Mike’s takedown defense is like a Police lineup, suspect, and he doesn’t fight well against the cage.  The good thing is, I don’t see Prachnio even thinking about taking this fight to the ground.  I don’t know if he could if he wanted to.  Rodriguez has excellent standing knees and is most effective in moving forward and quite the opposite when he’s forced backward.

This is one of those style matchups I mentioned earlier.  At the lower price tier of $7300, Prachnio is your best chance of getting an upset finish, out of all the other fighters dwelling in the cellar with him, including Frankie Edgar at $7,200.  If Prachnio comes in on that Blue Sky, it’s going to be tough for Rodriguez to get a finish, but I like his technical advantages over Prachnio.  This is another tough call, but pencil me in for a Rodriguez third-round TKO, but at $8,900 Fantasy cap hit, I’m going with Munhoz at $9,000.

Winner: Mike Rodriguez | Method: TKO Rd.3

Daniel Rodriguez (-190) vs. Takashi Sato (+165)

Rodriguez: DK: $8.7k, FD: $18 | Sato: DK: $7.5k, FD: $16

This is the most certain I am of an outcome on this card.  Daniel Rodriguez is another UFC addition from the Contender Series and already has a notable submission victory over Tim Means.   A southpaw, he dominated a very good striker in Tim Means with constant lateral movement off his jab to set up his left hand.  He trains with Joe Stich Em Up Schilling, who is a world-class striker and former Glory Kickboxing Champion.

Rodriguez manages distance well, can strike going backward, and cuts off the ring to set up angles.  You know I’m a sucker for leg kicks, and D-Rod has plenty in his arsenal.  In case of emergencies, he has “oh s!@t” takedowns when he's in trouble and good timing on takedowns when an opponent over pursues.

Takashi Sato is one of those fighters that look better than he really is.  He has an excellent Pro record of 16-3 and is 2-1 in the UFC, but he has major flaws in his striking.  In his lone UFC loss, Belal Muhammad dominated Sato with his left hook all night.  Takashi has terrible defensive striking but is excellent when going forward.  Another southpaw, he absolutely refuses to raise his right hand or move his head to defend against an opponent’s left hand.  

Sato has no counter striking game, and his offense is totally dependent on him moving forward in a straight line.  Movement is Sato’s kryptonite, and Rodriguez never stops moving.  Rodriguez’s left hand may never leave Sato’s face in this fight.  

With a Fantasy salary of $8,700, I’m taking Daniel Rodriguez all day and most of the night.  He has averaged one hundred fifteen Fantasy points in his two UFC fights, and I think he gets the finish in this one.  If you find yourself rummaging through the house-strains and can’t afford the top shelf, at $7,500, take a good look at Sato.  In his two UFC victories, Sato's averaged one hundred Fantasy points and could land a left hand that changes the fight.  I'm saying there's a chance.

This could be the Marlon Vera trap fight, but I’m putting it on wax, Daniel Rodriguez, third-round TKO.

Winner: Daniel Rodriguez | Method: TKO Rd.3

Prelims

Amanda Lemos (+125) vs. Mizuki Inoue (-150)

Lemos: DK: $7.6k, FD: $15 | Inoue: DK: $8.6k, FD: $16

This right here is considered a banger.  I think this is going to be the fight of the night.  This is the battle of the off-brand fighters; we have Market Pantry Zhang Weili vs. the Great Value Amanda Nunes.  Both of these ladies are world-class strikers with completely different styles.

Mizuki is a short, quick technical striker, and Lemos is a long, power striker.  Mizuki has a 14-5 Pro record and has only lost to elite competition.  Her most recent loss was a close split decision for the Invicta title against Virna Jandiroba, who just smoked Felice Herrig in about a minute.  This will be her second fight in the UFC after winning her debut a year ago.

Inoue’s striking reminds me a lot of Frankie Edgar’s, excellent lateral movement, head movement, and tight, crisp combinations.  She’s a high-volume striker, landing over six significant strikes per minute.  She has above average takedown defense and a gas tank to go three hard rounds.

Lemos is scary.  She has heavy leg kicks, she tends to throw them naked with nothing in front to hide them, but she’s so quick she can get away with it.  Aggression will not be a problem in this fight as Lemos lands six and a half strikes per minute.  Her lone loss was to the savage Leslie Smith.  In that fight, Lemos fought two weight classes up and had Smith in all kinds of trouble in the first round.  She has Jose Aldo-like leg kicks and hands like Amanda Nunes, but her defense and cardio are lacking.  She tends to get wild in the pocket and doesn’t do well against heavy forward pressure. 

Both would be good additions to your Fantasy lineup, as this figures to be a fast-paced, back and forth scrap.  Mizuki is at $8,600, and at $7,600, taking Lemos could get your hand cut off in some countries.  Lemos, decision.  

Winner: Coin Flip... Amanda Lemos | Method: Decision

Mariya Agapova (-1000) vs. Shana Dobson (+600)

Agapova: DK: $9.3k, FD: $19 | Dobson: DK: $6.8k, FD: $BOGO

The Chris Daukus trap fight? Nah, Mariya Agapova is a (-800) opening favorite against the 3-4 Shana Dobson and for good reason.  Agapova is the longer, better striker and this will be almost exclusively a standup fight.  Agapova strikes with her head straight up in the air, which will be a problem for her moving forward beyond this fight.

Dobson… well, she’s in the UFC, and that’s cool.  She’s lost three in a row but did win her UFC debut.  Average to below average in every skill set, it seems like Dobson is getting another chance with the promotion just to have an opponent for Agapova.

Agapova is the highest Fantasy cap hit at $9,300, but I think Dobson will drag this out to a decision.  For that top tier price tag, I’m taking Munhoz.  Dobson is a BOGO (Buy One Get One) at $6,800.  Agapova, decision. Those odds though... (+600) for Dobson, hmm.

Winner: Agapova | Method: Decision

Austin Hubbard (+115) vs. Joe Solecki (-145)

Hubbard: DK: $7.8k, FD: $15 | Solecki: DK: $8.4k, FD: $16

This is the classic striker vs. wrestler matchup.  Hubbard made the highly touted collegiate wrestler Max Rohskopf quit in his last fight.  I mean, really quit.  My man was literally begging his corner to stop the fight between the second and third rounds, but the corner refused, and the ref was forced to step in.

Hubbard was taken down in the first round but was able to get back to his feet each time, which bodes well for him against another wrestler in Joe Solecki. Hubbard uses a lot of kicks and has good hands to hide them behind, and he’s scrappy.

Solecki had four takedowns with nearly round-long top control against veteran Matt Wiman in his UFC debut after earning a contract on the Contender series.  It’s wrestling or bust for Solecki.  Solecki is around a (-150) favorite, but if Hubbard can get back to his feet repeatedly like he did against Rohskopf, I like him as a dog in this one.  

This is another complete toss-up.  Hubbard will be taken down, especially early, and we don’t know a whole lot about Solecki in a tough scrap where he can’t impose his will from bell to bell.  Solecki is most likely the better Fantasy pick at $8,400 because he will get takedowns and has aggressive ground and pound.  I’m going out on a limb and picking Hubbard to win, but I wouldn’t take him for my lineup because even if he wins, he’s going to have to be selective with his standup.  If Solecki wins, he’ll have solid numbers.  On wax, Hubbard, decision.

Winner: Austin Hubbard | Method: Decision

Dwight Grant (TBD) vs.Jared Gooden Calen Born (TBD)

Grant: DK: $8.8k, FD: $17 | Born: DK: TBD, FD: TBD

Dwight Grant may be getting a different opponent, but at the moment is set to fight Jared Gooden.  Well, he did. As I was posting this Calen Born was announced as Grant's new opponent.

Grant reminds me of how Carlos Condit fights, always retreating.  The difference is, Grant doesn’t have the same output as Condit, and that could spell trouble against an aggressive pressure fighter.  Grant is 2-1 in the UFC after appearing on the Contender Series.

Calen Born... I got nothing. He's 7-1 with four subs and two KO's/TKO's. Just stay away from this fight. Grant doesn't pressure enough to justify his $8,800 salary cap hit. I'm going to do the complete opposite of what I've been doing and choose the random blank portrait fighter to win because that seemed to work last week. Give me Calen Born, decision.

Winner: Calen Born | Method: Decision

Isaac Villanueva (-125) vs. Jorge Gonzalez (-105)

Villanueva: DK: $8.2k, FD: $17 | Gonzalez: DK: $8k, FD: $16

Isaac Villanueva is going to wake up with Smokey standing over him, rummaging through his pockets if you know what I mean.  Jorge Gonzalez is huge and is 16-5, with all sixteen wins coming via stoppage.  All but one of his fights ended in the first round, and the one that didn’t was stopped in the second.

Gonzalez is a slow, plodding, flatfooted puncher with a lot of power.  He's making his UFC debut and hasn’t faced much stiff competition.  The one excellent fighter he fought, he lost to last year in the second round.

I was only able to find a fifteen-second highlight of Villanueva being KO’d back in May by Chase Sherman.  To say the least, I wasn’t impressed.  Gonzalez is $8,000 and as good as any to produce a finish.  I mean, he’s sixteen for sixteen.  Swoop him up. Villanueva’s cap hit is about $8,199 too high.  Hard pass.  Gonzalez, second-round TKO.

Winner: Jorge Gonzalez | Method: TKO Rd.2

Timur Valiev (-550) vs. Mark Striegl (+400)

Valiev: DK: $9.1K, FD: $20 | Striegl: DK: $7.1k, FD: $10

The stage was set for Timur Valiev to make his anticipated UFC debut against UFC sophomore Jamall Emmers three weeks ago.  The fight fell through, and now he’s back.  The Dagestani Valiev is a PFL and WSOF veteran and possesses the Dagestani trademark, excellent wrestling.  He has solid kickboxing and will use it to close the distance and work takedowns.

Mark Striegl’s stats are fantastic.  He is 18-2 with fourteen submission victories.  He fights out of Alliance MMA in the Philippines and has an excellent ground game.  He is a Southeast Asian Games Sambo Gold Medalist.  This is going to be strength versus strength, pitting two wrestlers/grapplers against each other.  I give Valiev the edge on the feet and Striegl the advantage in the wrestling department.  I hear gold medalist, and it’s a wrap; Striegl, decision.

This is going to be a very good technical fight and might be the opening match, don’t miss it.  At $9,100, I’d stay away from Valiev and would pay the bitcoin asking price for Striegl. Valiev is another huge favorite, and at (+400) for Striegl, I might drop a couple duckets.

Winner: Mark Striegl | Method: Decision

Matt Semelsberger vs. Carlton Minus

Semelsberger: DK $7.7k, FD: TBD | Minus: DK: $8.5k, FD: TBD

Semelsberger likes to fight against the cage or take the fight to the mat.  He has excellent standing elbows from the clinch and strong takedowns and top control. His standup is stiff, but he does have some power.  He wants to clinch with Minus and drag him to the ground.  Minus is a kickboxer with excellent movement and distance management.  He mixes kicks in combination with his hands and uses his jab well.  

Minus has been fighting Ice Road Truckers in Alaska at local Love’s truck stops.  He did fight former UFC contender Rick Story in the PFL but was caught in a rear-naked in the second round.

I’m going to take the physically stronger fighter who can dictate where the fight takes place, Matt Semelsberger.  Minus’s ability to land a high volume of strikes is reflected in his $8,500 salary price.  Semelsberger is in the lower tier at $7,700, and I’d rather take Lemos if I were looking in that price range.

Winner: Semelsberger| Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves. 

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy. 

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