We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Main Card

Paul Felder (+150) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (-190)

Felder: $7.4k, FD: $18 | Dos Anjos: DK: $8.8k, FD: $21

Islam Makhachev is said to be Khabib Nurmagomedov’s heir to the lightweight throne and the second protégé of Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, Khabib’s father. The only reason Islam is not already the lightweight champ has been attributed to a conscious decision to wait until Khabib’s reign has ended, and his legacy cemented in the MMA history books under the chapter titled: The Goat.

Islam was on the verge of breaking the confines of his typecast role as the perennial best-kept secret in MMA and taking center stage, finally, in the starring role in the main event against former Lightweight Champion Rafael Dos Anjos. Unfortunately, just five days out from the big gig, a staph infection forced him to drop the fight.

In steps the gangster and a gentleman, Paul Felder. Imagine being a flight attendant, and just hours before takeoff, you find out you’re going to be piloting the plane instead of miming emergency procedures and taking drink orders. A little dramatic? Yeah, fo’ sho’ but that’s how I do. Paul Felder goes from commentating the card in a three-piece suit on Saturday night to donning stitches and Technicolor bruises at the post-fight press conference after fighting in the main event. The main event with serious future title implications, the winner, placing their name in the hat with four or five other candidates competing for the recently vacated throne.

Felder is everything other fighters use filters and premium apps to disguise themselves as to the public when, in reality, you wouldn’t even recognize them as a poor imitation without them. Any time, anywhere; that’s all you ever hear, but when the phone rings, they didn’t have any service and missed the call, their dog passed away a month ago, or they can’t make weight because their neighborhood Applebee’s just reopened.

In some ways, this will be a more exciting, fan-friendly matchup. Makhachev is a position-dominant wrestler with a suffocating top game that tends to result in a grinding, slow fight. Paul Felder brings fireworks into the cage, that Tijuana hidden-under-the-seat at the border crossing fireworks. Felder will bring elite-level striking, the kind that led to Dos Anjos’ exit from the lightweight division after he lost his belt to Eddie Alvarez.

Felder is a more powerful, more technical, and more diverse striker than Alvarez, scouts honor. Spinning attacks, Felder Ko’d Danny Castillo with a spinning back fist, and he tactfully looks to counter with spinning elbows. Elbows; Felder has some of the nastiest standing elbows in the promotion that he throws in combination with his hands. Earlier I mentioned a hat with the names of four or five title challengers; one of them is Charles Oliveira. Felder smoked “Do Bronx,” pappy’d him, son’d him, Maury Povich he-is-the-father type smoked him. Paul will stand in the pocket and trade combinations and won’t take a step back. We will learn a lot about Dos Anjos in this fight, more than just that he still can’t stop a takedown against an elite wrestler.

Rafael Dos Anjos is making his return to the lightweight division after eight fights at welterweight, where he was undersized and went 4-4, including 1-4 in his last five. He still has excellent, dangerous striking with heavy leg kicks from the southpaw stance. Rafael's path to victory is making this an ugly, grinding fight in the clinch, against the cage, and on the mat. Make Felder wrestle, wear out the fighter cutting to 155lbs on less than a week’s notice; that has to be Dos Anjos’ game plan. At welterweight, I don’t think RDA had the same level of aggression as he did at lightweight. RDA is more confident in his striking at this weight class and has a decided advantage, having had a full training camp leading up to the fight.

How will these guys look on your Fantasy roster? Quite dapper. You really can’t go wrong with either guy. It will be a nip/tuck, back and forth fight, and both fighters will have their moments and two extra rounds to rack up significant strikes. Yes, not only is Felder taking the fight on short notice, but it’s also remaining a five-round main event. I think Felder has to score a finish to get the dub; if it goes the distance, it will be RDA getting his hand raised. The smart, responsible pick is RDA. All of the advantages go to RDA. But if you’re a constant reader of the Weekly Knockout, you know I’m like Paul Felder. I say f@!$ it, I risk it all and let the chips fall where they may. Paul Felder, TKO, round three.

Winner: Paul Felder | Method: TKO Rd.2

Abdul Razak Alhassan(-235 ) vs. Khaos Williams (+185)

Alhassan: DK: $9.1k, FD: $22 | Khaos: DK: $7.1k, FD: $8

Someone will be auditioning for a Sleep Number mattress commercial at the end of this one; it could be one of those one-round wars that see feeling-out processes and fundamental technique swan dive out the window. These guys throw bombs, exclusively.

Kalinn "Khaos" Williams’s UFC debut barely lasted longer than a shot clock violation at twenty-seven seconds. Williams is a power puncher with bad fundamentals and will be at a decided technical disadvantage on the feet. Luckily for Kalinn, he only needs to touch you with one of his wide hooks to win the fight. He tends to reach with his punches, leaning over his lead foot, which causes his back foot to lift off the mat. If he learns how to plant his feet and sit down on his punches, he could be a real problem. His biggest striking flaw, though, is that he drops his hands when he engages and extends his head up in the air like he’s looking over a fence and offering advice to Tim “The Toolman” Taylor.

Abdul Alhassan throws technical bombs and only deals ‘em by the dozen. He is 4-2 in the UFC and coming off a competitive loss to an elite striker in Mounir Lazezz; google some of that guy’s fights. Abdul is the more polished striker in this contest and is by far the more defensively responsible fighter. Unlike Williams, he doesn’t overextend himself and strings together cleaner combinations of overhands and tight hooks. All of Alhassan’s ten professional wins have come via TKO/KO, and all have come in the first round.

I’m going to ride with the more technical fighter with better hand speed, Abdul Alhassan. The fighter who consistently leads the dance and gets off first will win and likely very quickly. You can’t argue with a one hundred percent finishing rate in the first round, Abdul Alhassan, via KO, round one.

Winner: Abdul Alhassan | Method: KO Rd.1

Julian Marquez (-300 ) vs Saparbeg Safarov (+230)

Marquez: DK: $9.4k, FD: $23 | Safarov: DK:$6.8k, FD: $8

If you find yourself at work and need something to do while on your ten-minute break and the handicap stall is free, you should sit down and watch Julian Marquez's Contender Series fight in 2017 against Phil Hawes. The same Phil Hawes who won via eighteen seconds KO two weeks ago. Marquez KO’d Hawes in incredible fashion to earn his spot on the UFC roster but has only fought twice since his debut, which was just two months after the Hawes victory.

Marquez is a pressure fighter with fight-ending power in his hands and kicks. His debut came against the bomb-thrower, Darren Stewart, and the two engaged in an exciting back and forth brawl. Marquez weathered heavy damage and went on the submit Stewart with a second-round guillotine. Marquez is just a dog, the physical embodiment of a DMX adlib. He is nasty in the clinch, delivering powerful knees and elbows, and attacks with combinations. Like a photo lineup, his cardio is suspect, and his takedown defense is just short of terrible. He was taken down four times in each of his two UFC fights.

Saparbeg Safarov, aka the Russian Al Bundy, with his matching cul-de-sac hairline, once scored four pins in a high school wrestling tournament. He went on to become a dirty fighter in the UFC, one who has shown a blatant disregard for the rules inside the Octagon, which includes holding the cage for leverage and striking his opponents after the bell. A wrestler with one-punch power striking, Safarov looks to use looping, wide punches to drive his opponents against the cage where he can cheat and work takedowns from the clinch.

This is a toss-up. Safarov has a slightly higher output, landing four significant strikes per minute, and Marquez comes in just under four. I like Marquez’s ability to finish fights more than I do Safarov’s takedowns and top control. Julian Marquez via TKO, round two.

Winner: Julian Marquez | Method: TKO Rd.2

Kay Hansen (-225) vs. Cory McKenna (+175)

Hansen: DK: $9.2k, FD: $21 | McKenna: DK: $7k, FD: $9

Chemtrails, flat earth, Tower Seven, the world has come to know Eddie Bravo as Joe Rogan’s wild conspiracy theorist sidekick, and these are just a few of his favorite diatribes. Surely the recent election results will fuel classic rants that only Alex Jones can compete with. While many know and love Eddie for his unique view of the world, the MMA community recognizes him as one of the most impactful figures in the sport. His Tenth Planet Jiu-Jitsu academies—which I’ve attended in San Diego on occasion—are revolutionary. He’s created a system with its own language and techniques developed specifically for use in MMA. If you ever want to see these techniques in action, watch some Ben Saunders fights; he uses the rubber guard to break poster and deliver devastating strikes from the guard.

Kay Hansen is a Tenth Planet Jiu-Jitsu wizard and one of the best female representatives putting the academy on the map. She has excellent takedowns, and even when she isn’t able to land a submission, she can control fights with stifling top control. Her standup is the equivalent of the Dallas Cowboys’ Ben Dinucci’’s forward pass; it ain’t pretty. She will dominate this fight on the ground and will finish it in the second round with an armbar.

Cory McKenna is making her debut and is 5-1 as a professional, 5-2 after Saturday night. There isn’t much footage on her, and there doesn’t really need to be; I’m sure her tapping technique isn’t revolutionary. Kay Hansen via armbar, round two; on wax.

Winner: Kay Hansen | Method: Armbar Rd.2

Eryk Anders (-145 ) vs Antonio Arroyo (+115)

Anders: DK: $8.5k, FD: $17 | Arroyo: DK: $7.7k, FD: $15

This is the classic wrestler versus striker matchup, and Eryk Anders hopes he can hold up the wrestling side of the bargain. Anders is a former Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker, and early in his career, his athleticism made him a promising MMA prospect. The problem is, his wrestling fell off and his striking never developed. His standup isn’t good enough to get drawn into kickboxing matches, but he also hasn’t recorded a takedown in his last five fights. That isn’t from lack of trying; he just isn't able to finish takedowns and gets stymied against the cage. He needs to finish takedowns in the center of the Octagon so he isn't tempted to waste large stretches of rounds holding his opponent against the cage.

Antonio Arroyo is the wrong guy for Anders to get caught striking with for three rounds. A voyeur kicker, Arroyo throws mostly naked kicks with no setup and uses a variety of round and front kicks to maintain distance and soften his opponent’s defenses from the outside. Boxing is an afterthought for Arroyo, who is very judicious when rationing out his punches, but when he does let them go, he has KO power. A lack of takedown defense and a weak guard game could be his undoing in this fight.

I’ve gone back and forth on this one, and although odds have not been released for the matchup, I think it will be close to a pick ‘em fight. Expect moderate Fantasy numbers from both fighters, somewhere around the fifty significant strikes landed range. Arroyo is coming off a loss to a grappler who held him down for most of the fight, which would justify adding Anders to your roster. I prefer the rush one gets when living on the edge, so I’m taking Arroyo via TKO, round three. Those kicks will be Anders’s downfall.

Winner: Antonio Arroyo | Method: TKO Rd.3

Prelims

Brendan Allen ( ) vs. Sean Strickland ( )

Allen: DK: $7.9k, FD: TBD | Strickland: DK: $8.3k, FD: TBD

This fight was a late addition with Brendan Allen scheduled to fight on last week’s card against the beast Ian Heinisch. Sean Strickland fought only two weeks ago, defeating the sloth Jack Marshman.

Brendan Allen is a problem; he’s a solid all-around fighter and is the proverbial dark horse in the division. Allen has three wins in the UFC, including a second-round submission win over Kevin Holland, and competed on the Contender Series. He shines on the ground, with excellent top control and relentless ground and pound. In his last fight in June, he fought Chris Daukaus’s brother Kyle who gave Allen all he could handle in a very close decision victory. That fight featured back and forth scrambles and clinical ground striking from both fighters.

This is a bad fight for Strickland; Brendan Allen is the kind of fighter you want to avoid if you can much less agree to fight him on short notice. Strickland is coming off a dominant win two weeks ago, a win in which he notched one hundred and six significant strikes. He won’t come near that total in this fight, as he will have to spend significant energy defending takedowns and scrambling back to his feet. He has technical, crisp boxing, but there aren’t any wrinkles to it; there’s nothing explosive or tricky when it comes to his striking.

In twenty-four career fights, Strickland has only been finished once; make that twice come Saturday. Brendan Allen via rear-naked choke, round two.

Winner: Brendan Allen | Method: Rear-naked Choke Rd.2

Ashley Yoder (+115) vs. Miranda Granger (-145 )

Yoder: $8k: , FD: $16 | Granger: $8.2k: , FD: $16

Winter is coming, but Ashley Yoder’s tan isn’t going anywhere. Her most anticipated matchup isn’t against Miranda Granger; it’s against Tan Mom and is scheduled for early 2021 when fans will be allowed to attend the event. Yoder’s a striker with decent grappling, but in the majority of her losses, she has been held down and out-grappled/wrestled. She’s uses peppering shots rather than power punches and needs to be active from the jump to win this fight.

Miranda Granger is slightly better than Yoder in almost every category other than experience. This will be Granger’s third fight in the UFC, and she is coming off the receiving end of a drubbing against the up-and-coming Amanda Lemos. Granger can stay on the outside and use her long strikes to out-point Yoder, or she can make it ugly with the clinch and pressure against the cage. She has a big, long frame, and it will be a problem for Yoder to handle for three rounds.

Yoder hasn’t finished a fight since the last election, and five of Grangers seven professional wins have come via submission. I don’t know about her personal life, but in the cage, she likes chokes. As far as Fantasy rosters go, this may be an opportunity to pick up some fight-ending points. I’ll take Miranda Granger via guillotine choke, round two.

Winner: Miranda Granger | Method: Guillotine Choke Rd.2

Alex Morono (-190) vs. Rhys McKee (+155 )

Morono: $8k: , FD: $16 | McKee: $8.2k: , FD: $16

Rhys McKee is coming into this fight as the underdog, as he has been most of his life since day one when his parents decided on the spelling of his name. He was the second sacrificial offering the UFC made to Khamzat Chimaev this past summer when McKee made his debut. He recorded zero point zero strikes attempted/landed in that fight. He’s a long, hold the rangy, striker with go-go gadget arms that he doesn’t employ often enough. The lead hook from an orthodox fighter is his nemesis, and he staunchly refuses to move his head off the centerline. He reminds me of Thomas Shelby from Peaky Blinders if Shelby got his ass cracked every episode.

If you remove Alex Morono’s last fight, he’s a deceptively good striker who has faced tough competition, having fought ten times in the UFC with a 6-4 record. He bounces all around the cage, maintaining good lateral movement, and is somewhat reminiscent of Joe Lauzon. Morono flares his elbows out in his stance, which is something McKee can take advantage of with body strikes. The jab, he uses it well to manage distance, but he needs to engage on his terms, avoiding any type of prolonged exchanges in the pocket.

The fight is tough to call because so much is unknown about McKee. What we do know is that whenever I write off a fighter, as I so eloquently did McKee, they almost always tune into my Sunday morning cooking show after the fight, where I make decadent omelets from the egg on my face. All ten of McKee’s professional wins are finishes, and he might be a guy I take a chance on as a sleeper who can score a surprise finish. But I’m picking Morono to win the fight via decision.

Winner: Alex Morono | Method: Decision

Jose Quinonez (+110 ) vs. Louis Smolka (-140 )

Quinonez: $7.8k, FD: $15 | Smolka: DK: $8.4k, FD: $17

These are two savvy UFC veterans who both made their debuts in 2014. Smolka is on his second stint with the organization and is 7-7 overall. Quinonez is 5-3 and has lost only to top competition, including a two-minute TKO loss in his last outing to Sugar Sean O’Malley.

Quinonez is the slightly better striker with perpetual lateral movement and is light on his feet. Feints, often underutilized in MMA, Quinonez uses them well to get inside the pocket where he looks to land stiff hooks, but he lacks power and finishing ability.

Smolka’s hand speed has tailed off in recent years, and he usually gets outstruck against tough competition. He wants to get this fight to the mat where he can use his superior jiu-jitsu and submissions.

The slight favorite coming into the fight, Smolka will need to initiate takedowns before Quinonez does. Smolka’s takedown defense is a terrible thirty percent, and Quinonez averages two and a half takedowns a fight. I’m leaning towards Quinonez, but for some reason, I’m typing Smolka’s name as the winner... and now I'm typing Quinonez via decision.

Winner: Jose Quinonez | Method: Decision

Randa Markos ( ) vs. Kanako Murata ( )

Markos: DK: $7.6k, FD: $14 | Murata: DK: $8.6k, FD: $18

Randa Markos is a tough, grimey fighter and better than her 10-9 record would suggest. Her problem is her management hates her, and she takes every fight offered to her. She’s literally fought everybody who’s ever been anybody in the women’s strawweight division, but, unfortunately, she has lost to most of the big shiny names on her resume. Good at everything but not great at anything, that’s pretty much Markos to a T.

Kanako Murata is the former Invicta Strawweight Champion and an Asian World Champion wrestler, and another terrible matchup for Markos. Murata won’t wow you with her striking, but she has quick hands, and she times takedowns well to counter her opponent’s pressure. The most valuable advantage in MMA is in favor of the fighter who can dictate where the fight takes place; Murata can and will do just that against Markos.

I’m looking at Murata as a little known fighter appearing early on the card who can score takedowns and position advances and rack up significant strikes from the top. Murata will be a solid sixth woman coming off the bench for your Fantasy roster. Kanako Murata via decision.

Winner: Kanako Murata | Method: Decision

Geraldo de Freitas Jr. (+125 ) vs. Tony Gravely (-155 )

de Freitas: DK: $7.5k, FD: $13 | Gravely: DK: $8.7k, FD: $18

Geraldo de Freitas, much like Kanako Murata, has a good shot at scoring a finish early in the night against Tony Gravely. Both fighters prefer to take the fight to the mat, but de Freitas has more options if he’s unable to get it there. He’s the more diverse striker and has better grappling. Gravely is mostly a wrestling-striker with power punches and double leg takedowns, and there’s not much deviation from that.

Geraldo is a good roster pickup as he consistently scrambles and looks to advance position with ground and pound and overall aggressiveness. The annoying red flag waving in my face with Gravely’s name on it indicates that Gravely has been submitted five times in his career, so… Geraldo de Freitas Jr. via guillotine choke, round two.

Winner: Geraldo de Freitas Jr. | Method: Guillotine Choke Rd.2

Don'Tale Mayes (-225) vs. Roque Martinez (+175)

Mayes: DK: $9k, FD: $20 | Martinez: DK: $7.2k, FD: $10

Mayes is a puncher, almost exclusively, and just short of a boxer. His hand speed is economy seven to ten-day delivery, and his output is, on average, thirty to forty significant strikes landed per ten minutes of cage time. His takedown defense is suspicious, and when he’s on his back, he’s referred to as a victim.

Roque Martinez is the MMA Andy Ruiz. For a guy shaped like the Kool-Aid Man, Martinez has surprisingly good cardio and a propensity for absorbing damage. He’s that MMA curse word, durable, and is fearless when it comes to engaging in firefights. His path to victory isn’t standing and exchanging with Mayes; it’s pressing Mayes against the cage and dragging him to the ground where he can use his heavy pressure to score heavy ground and pound.

Martinez can rack up Fantasy points from the top if he’s able to get the fight to the ground. If it goes the distance, it will be Roque getting his hand raised. Mayes needs a finish, but I don’t think he gets it. However, he’s a decent long shot pick; Martinez lacks experience, and Mayes has KO power that can end the fight at any moment. I say that to say this, Roque Martinez, via decision.

Winner: Roque Martinez | Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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