We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Main Card

Jack Hermansson (+110 ) vs. Marvin Vettori (-140)

Hermansson: DK: $8k, FD: $19 | Vettori: DK: $8.2k, FD: $21

Somewhere, Impa Kasanganay is adding extra salt to his scrambled eggs, as his all but locked up Knocked Out of the Year award was savagely pried from his stiff fingers. Nate Robinson, clad in New York Knicks colors, like the Fan Man, swooped into the squared circle and said, “Hold my Ambien.” This is what happens when you have a pro debut before you have an amateur debut; a YouTuber immortalizes you in the Meme Hall Of Fame, you get accused of overacting like a 90’s Jim Carey in your Sleep Number Mattress commercial audition.

After Nate’s cornermen removed his shoes so no one would draw illicit graffiti on his face while he was sleeping and administered the ice bucket challenge three times, Nate finally woke up. He was greeted by the apparitions of past relatives huddled around him and one hundred texts from Joe Rogan asking about his near-death DMT experience. You play basketball, you play football, you play Monopoly, you don’t play fighting. Now, a “Don’t Try This At Home” warning label will be required before every broadcast like the Parental Advisory sticker on CD’s—those were discs that you inserted into a player that used a little laser to read the stored information, resulting in music playing from your speakers.

No athletes risk more than combat sports athletes, and when you lose, sometimes you visit the shadow realm, the duration determined by a mere game of luck.

Speaking of luck, Jack Hermansson is lucky to have an opponent for this weekend’s Fight Night main event. Jack’s original opponent was Darren Till, then my 2020 MVP, Kevin Holland. Holland tested positive for Covid and was forced out this past weekend. As a result, a little matchmaking roulette took place, and Holland is now scheduled to fight in two weeks against Marvin Vettori’s previously scheduled opponent, Jacare Souza. Vettori steps up on short notice to fight Hermansson, and the new matchups remain just as intriguing.

Hermansson is the number four-ranked middleweight and is on the verge of earning a title shot with an impressive performance. We’ve seen the Champ Adesanya against every kind of striker imaginable, but what we haven’t seen is his ground game. Assuming Hermansson could get the fight to the mat, he would in the least make for a type of challenge that Stylebender hasn’t yet been presented. Since 2016, Hermansson has quietly gone 8-3 in the UFC, his losses coming to the title challengers Jared Cannonier and Thiago Santos, and the grimey Cezar Ferreira.

The Joker brings long, awkward striking to the cage and elite Jiu-Jitsu and submissions. Like a deck of cards, The Joker is a wild card; it’s impossible to predict how he’ll match up with anyone. He fought Kelvin Gastelum as a heavy underdog in July and sub’d Kelvin with a heel hook in just over a minute. If it were a best of ten series, Gastelum likely goes 9-1, 8-2. Hermansson just finds a way to win.

Hermansson’s striking is mostly dependent on the use of long-range kicks to the body and legs. He’s an excellent kicker, but his hands are below average. If given the opportunity to stand on the outside and probe with his jab, Hermansson can survive on his feet with most in the division, but if his opponent gets inside of his long reach, he struggles. Herm doesn’t put combinations together fluidly and is mostly a one-punch striker who lacks power.

Marvin Vettori is an aggressive power striker who is allergic to throwing single punches. Everything he throws is in combination and with heavy forward pressure. Whether in the street or in the cage, the best fighting advice is, be first. There’s little to no feeling out process with Vettori as he is consistently first to engage. A southpaw and mostly pure boxer, Vettori will attack with occasional kicks to the body, but he doesn’t use them near enough. Using more power than technique but without compromising effectiveness, Vettori has solid wrestling and can score takedowns to mix things up.

The numbers: Vettori is 5-2-1 in the UFC, with two of those wins coming by way of submission. For a big power striker, Vettori has yet to record a UFC win via TKO/KO and only has two on his 15-4 overall professional record. He lands four significant strikes per minute to Hermansson’s five and averages over one and a half takedowns per fight compared to Hermansson’s two. The biggest difference between the two is the level of competition. Vettori did go the distance with Adesanya, but that was an L and the most impressive name on his record.

Hermansson has a better resume but comes into this fight as the slight (+110) underdog. He’s being slept on like Nate Robin… never mind. This is another toss-up; can Hermansson stay on the outside and avoid Vettori’s power and score takedowns to initiate sub attempts, or can Vettori stay in Hermansson’s chest and land heavy combos? Without consistent takedowns from Jack, Vettori will run away with this and a decision victory. I think Vettori will over pursue and end up on his back throughout the fight, and during a scramble, I see Hermansson catching his neck. Jack Hermansson via guillotine choke, round two. A gamble on either for your roster is a good move; both can win and score Fantasy points, Vettori with his significant strikes, and Hermansson with his submission abilities.

Winner: Jack Hermansson | Method: Guillotine Choke Rd.2

Ovince Saint Preux (+140 ) vs Jamahal Hill (-170)

OSP: DK: $7.8k, FD: $16 | Hill: DK:$8.4k, FD: $17

I hate this fight for OSP. With Jon Jones vacating his title, and the belt now in the hands of the very beatable Jan Blachowicz, winning a title has never been more attainable for OSP than now. What does fighting another up and coming young buck with only seven professional fights on his record do for OSP? The classic lose-lose. OSP is fighting gatekeeper fights when he should be fighting top contender fights.

Jamahal Hill is a slick, sneaky-good striker and a horribly dangerous fight for OSP. Hill is an excellent range manager and uses his jab like a pro boxer, often and in multiples of two. He rarely throws his right hand without a lead hand escort and never stops moving laterally, searching for angles. Like Marvin Vettori, Hill is consistently first to engage with jabs and short combos, and his defense is a constant offense. Hill’s takedown defense is suspect and should be tested by OSP, but he forces scrambles and works his way back to his feet well.

OSP is coming off a dominant win against the monster Alonzo Menifield, a fight OSP won by vicious KO. This fight will be much different as Hill has a much higher output and is a much better technical striker than Menifield. OSP has solid wrestling and submissions in his back pocket, specifically, the Von Preux choke, which he has used to finish four fights from side control. Striking, OSP is dynamic, mixing unorthodox boxing and stance switches with a variety of kicks. OSP’s major malfunction, his lack of aggression and unwillingness to throw anything for long stretches.

Just when you start to believe in OSP, he never fails to let you down; he comes out flat and is unwilling to engage until the final bell is near and the light at the end of the tunnel is within reach. Another head scratcher, OSP opened as the (+144) underdog to a guy with only two fights and four total rounds logged in the UFC. If I had to bet the house, I’d take Jamahal Hill, but I don’t, and I’m going with OSP to land something significant early and introduce Hill to the big leagues. OSP via TKO, round two.

Winner: Ovince Saint Preux | Method: TKO Rd.2

Montana De La Rosa (+170) vs. Taila Santos (-210)

De La Rosa: DK: $7.3k, FD: $11 | Santos: DK: $8.9k, FD: $17

It’s grappling or bust for Montana De La Rosa. She began her UFC career with three straight submission victories but struggled when she wasn’t able to get the fight to the mat. Striking is a problem for De La Rosa even when she secures takedowns, she just doesn’t do it. She hunts for submissions with little to no ground and pound or peppering punches to soften her opponents. It’s basically a NAGA grappling match when she fights. In her fight against Mara Borella, she had Borella’s back for almost two full rounds and spent the entirety trying to secure a rear-naked choke to no avail.

Montana’s striking has gotten better since her debut after competing on the Ultimate Fighter in 2017, but she lacks even a little power and survives one strike at a time on the outside against opponents who are just as afraid to commit as she is. But Taila Santos is an aggressive power striker whose forward pressure could play into Montana’s desire to get the fight to the mat.

Santos is a bit of a conundrum; she’s 16-1 and 1-1 in the UFC, her loss coming to Mara Borella, who’s Montana’s only win in her last three fights. But Santos dominated the very tough, highly touted Molly McCann back in July. She has the traditional Brazillian Muay Thai, a very upright posture, rounded shoulders, and aggressive forward pressure with standing knees and heavy round kicks. The Muay Thai plum broke into the mainstream when Anderson Silva used it to destroy Rich Franklin and win the middleweight belt. Santos uses the plum to wear down her opponents with knees and elbows, and De La Rosa will need to avoid the tie-up at all costs.

Santos’s weakness is her hands. She uses knees and kicks more to inflict damage than she uses punches and tends to get repetitive with basic combinations. Jiu-Jitsu, the edge goes to De La Rosa, but Santos has a strong top game and ground and pound if she can end up there. At (+170), De La Rosa is coming in as the underdog and will likely be a Fantasy bust if she can’t find a submission. This is definitely a winnable fight for De La Rosa, but I think Santos will be too powerful and find a way to keep it standing for long stretches. On wax, Taila Santos via decision.

Winner: Taila Santos | Method: Decision

Roman Dolidze (-200 ) vs John Allan (+160)

Dolidze: DK: $8.7k, FD: $16 | Allan: DK: $7.5k, FD: $14

*Fight of the Night*

This one could steal the show on the main card. Roman Dolidze is wild, he howls at the moon, and he’s just the wrong dude to ever find yourself in a fight with. He’s from Georgia, not Georgia as in the ATL and Outkast, but Georgia, the country, the border of Europe and Asia and dead center between the Black and Caspian Seas. Power puncher, yeah, he’s that with a one hundred percent finishing rate in seven pro fights. He’ll be making his second UFC appearance after a first-round TKO in his debut in July.

What makes Dolidze a special striker, especially for his large size, is his counter striking. Dolidze anticipates his opponent’s movements and slides out of the pocket while throwing a check hook or cross. It’s similar to how Conor McGregor slid back and one-punch KO’d Jose Aldo. When Roman goes forward, it's usually limited to one or two punches, but every strike is a finishing blow. Relying mostly on boxing, Roman will occasionally throw lead leg kicks and will punctuate every landed strike with taunting ish talking.

John Allan, clear your browser history and get this fight to the ground expeditiously, or you might be wearing the proverbial Knicks colored fight shorts on Saturday night. Pull guard, fake an eye poke or low blow and catch Dolidze off guard; whatever you got to do, do it. Allan isn’t an invalid on his feet, but his only real threat is an overhand right that he relies on too much without a setup. A broken Nintendo directional pad, Allan only moves in two directions, forward and backward. He won’t hesitate to jump into the pocket and exchange, but his attacks are repetitive one-twos and cross-hooks. If Allan hurts you, he’s a good finisher, and from the top position, he uses nasty elbows to ground and pound.

Little is known about Dolidze’s ability to defend takedowns and what his guard is like from his back, so it could get interesting if the (-165) favorite isn’t able to remain upright. Dolidze is as close to a guaranteed finish as you’ll get on this card, and if you don’t have him on your fantasy roster, you’ll have to hunt for a finish elsewhere. Roman Dolidze via TKO, round two. Wax on, wax off.

Winner: Roman Dolidze | Method: TKO Rd.2

Nate Landwehr (+425 ) vs Movsar Evloev (-650)

Landwehr: DK: $6.9k, FD: $8 | Evloev: DK: $9.3k, FD: $23

Nate Landwehr is thirty-two years old but looks like he's going on fifty-five. He’s another wild soul and a lot like Spike Carlyle—who looked like anything but the crazy, fun fighter I told you he was last week—but a little less ginger and a better striker.

Landwehr will be a fighter you won’t soon forget; his nonstop forward pressure, and careless, wild striking ensures he will never be in a boring fight. He can counter strike moving backward, he can attack with extended combinations, and he initiates chaotic scrambles on the ground. Go check out Nate’s last fight against Darren Elkins; by the end of the fight, it looked like the pig blood scene from the Stephen King adapted movie, Carrie. Defense isn’t a concern of Landwehr’s; he prefers to not waste energy defending or eluding strikes and settles for taking tons of damage instead. If you see him at the olive bar at your local Sprouts, you might feel compelled to bump your gums, but you’ll likely get your ass kicked into the candy dispenser section.

I say all that to say this, Movsar Evloev is going to win this fight; he’s a solid all-around fighter who can stand and bang or take the fight to the mat. Reminiscent of Frankie Edgar, Evloev continually moves laterally while peppering his opponents with tight, short combinations and smoothly transitions to takedowns off his striking. Evloev will not wow you with excessive speed, power, or athleticism, but he’s the equivalent of a solid leadoff batter that works the count, rarely strikes out, and maintains a high on-base percentage. He sticks to the fundamentals and doesn’t put himself in risky positions.

Landwehr landed one hundred twenty significant strikes against Elkins, and Evloev will come in steady around fifty to sixty significant strikes but will supplement with takedowns and position advances. I thought Evloev might come in as the slight favorite, but he’s actually a massive favorite at (-600). That’s crazy. You can take a chance on Landwehr at (+400) and feel comfortable; the gap between these two isn’t that wide. I would lean towards Landwehr on my Fantasy roster as well if I were looking for a low tier fighter with a high upside. But I’m taking Movsar Evloev to win via decision.

Winner: Mover Evloev | Method: Decision

Prelims

Dope Matchups and Fighters to Keep An Eye On

Jimmy Flick (-205 ) vs. Cody Durden (+165)

Flick: DK: $8.5k, FD: $18 | Durden: DK: $7.7k, FD: $12  

This is a style matchup, Jiu-Jitsu versus wrestling. Jimmy Flick has Cyber Monday specials on submissions year-round and flows from one submission to another, each current attempt a setup, a front, a misdirection for the sub he’s really looking to land behind it. His opponents are left to defend constantly and unable to mount much offense. Flick’s style reminds me of Bryce Mitchell, who we saw put on a grappling clinic a couple of weeks ago against Andre Fili. Flick's submission attempts aren’t explosive, but rather, they’re methodical and eventual.

Jimmy Flick’s standup, ain’t great. He uses a lot of peppering kicks but never really commits to them, and his hands are stiff, but he lacks any hesitation to engage. I don’t think Flick wants to get drawn into a kickboxing match, even if Cody Durden isn’t the most dangerous striker himself.

Cody Durden has spent his whole life being overshadowed by his older brother, Tyler. Also a fighter, Tyler was a bare-knuckle legend and introduced Cody to the fight game. Cody finally got his chance to shine this past August, making his UFC debut on short notice against the tough Chris Gutierrez. Durden took home the L that night and polishes it every night before bed.

An awkward striker, Durden lacks his brother’s ability to put together combinations and relies mostly on one-punch overhands. He’s looking to engage and duck under his opponent’s counters to secure takedowns. There’s a tick or habit that Durden has developed in his stance; he tends to hunch over, favoring his power side and puts himself in danger of getting head kicked. Durden will also want to secure takedowns and work from the top, but this is a bad matchup for that game plan.

At 9-0 with seven submission wins, Jimmy Flick is the better grappler and should be able to impose his will on Durden. Flick’s go-to submission is one of my favorites and is always there if you look for it, the arm triangle. Jimmy Flick via arm triangle, round two.

Winner: Jimmy Flick | Method: Arm Triangle Rd.2

Ilia Topuria ( ) DK: $9k | FD: $20

I dismissed Ilia Topuria before he made his UFC debut on short notice against a real promising future contender in Youssef Zalal back in October. I just didn’t know anything about him and thought the deck was stacked against a short notice debutante beating a killer like Zalal. Well, Topuria dominated twelve minutes of the fifteen-minute fight with five takedowns and five submission attempts and amazingly only recorded thirteen significant strikes in a unanimous decision victory.

Topuria brings excellent takedowns, including Greco throws and strong double legs with suffocating top control. He’s almost exclusively a position grappler, failing to use any ground and pound, peppering, or fight-ending. Instead, he attacks submission after submission and strings them together like elite strikers do hand combinations. Against Ilia, the Wu said it best, Protect Ya Neck; he attacks chokes continually, even while in the clinch against the cage.

The standup is Topuria’s weakness, but it’s not a liability. His overhand right can end a fight, and he uses short basic combinations but commits and throws everything heavy. Red flags, yeah, he has one major one, his cardio. He gassed heavily in the last round against Zalal and limped to the finish line, but that could also be attributed to taking a short notice fight. Topuria will be fighting another solid grappler in Damon Jackson, and it should feature high-level transitions and sub attempts. Neither fighter will light up the Fantasy scoreboard, so a finish is crucial. Give me Ilia Topuria via Rear-naked Choke, round two.

Sleeper

Justin Jaynes (+175) DK: $7.6k | FD: $13

I’m not picking Justin Jaynes to win his fight against Gabriel Benitez, but as the (+175) underdog, I think he definitely has a good shot at an early first-round stoppage. He KO’d Frank Camacho in forty seconds in his debut and all but shocked the world with a near first-round stoppage of the highly touted Gavin Tucker back in August. Tucker was able to survive an early knockdown and survive a tight guillotine choke literally by the seat of his chonies, as he slipped out of his fight shorts to free his legs to escape the choke.

Jaynes is aggressive early and has a knack for landing his lead left hook, and when he does, people go down. He tends to lead with it a lot like a Payless Roy Jones Jr. but rarely throws it without the cross behind it. If Jaynes hurts you, he swarms and has the killer instinct to finish you off. I can see him coming out aggressive early and landing that left hook, setting into motion a fight-ending sequence. The problem is, he gasses noticeably after the first round and takes a lot of damage. Ultimately, I think Benitez can steer the fight towards a more traditional kickboxing match, which he can win from the outside and with steady leg kicks. But Jaynes is a good look as a dog, that’s all I’m saying.

Nate Landwehr

I’m doing it; I’m dropping a twenty-twen-twen on my man Nate… hopefully, the name doesn’t carry any bad juju from last Saturday night. At (+425), it would be irresponsible not to. I think he more than has a chance to overwhelm Evloev and pull off the upset.

Pick "Em

Gabriel Benitez (-225) vs. Justin Jaynes (+175)

   Winner: Gabriel Benitez

 Method: Decision

Louis Smolka (-130) vs. Jose Quinonez (+100)

Winner: Jose Quinonez

 Method: Decision

Matt Wiman (+300) vs. Jordan Leavitt (-400)

Winner: Jordan Leavitt

Method: Strangulation Rd.2

Jimmy Flick (-205) vs. Cody Durden (+165)

Winner: Jimmy Flick

 Method: Arm Triangle Rd.2

Ilia Topuria ( ) vs. Damon Jackson ( )

Winner: Ilia Topuria

 Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Gian Villante (-205) vs. Jake Collier (+165)

Winner: Gian Villante

 Method: Decision

Final Thoughts:

Jake Paul, you’re taking everything I worked for MF’er. I’m gonna fight your ass. You know what’s the real fight, the real money fight. It’s me. Not these clowns that you already punked at the press conference. Don’t no one want to see that. You know you beat them already. That’s an easy fight. You want that real ish, right here.

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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