We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Paulo Costa is the Dallas Cowboys of MMA.

Main Card

Holly Holm (-110) vs. Irene Aldana (-110)

Holm: DK: $8.4k, FD: $20 | Aldana: DK: $7.8k, FD: $19

In 2015, I told anybody who would listen that Holly Holm was going to KO Ronda Rousey. I was like a stockbroker engaged in insider trading based on nonpublic information that Ronda Rousey really wasn’t very good.

“I have two double-double’s, animal style fries, and a strawberry milkshake; is your order correct on the screen?”

“Uh, yea, it is, but did you know Holly Holm is going to knock Ronda Rousey the !@#$ out Saturday night?”

“Nah, dude. Ronda is gonna break her arm in thirty seconds. Your total is fifteen twenty-seven. Please pull up to the first window.”

Nobody listened. It boggled me that Holm was a (+700) underdog going into that fight. So much so that I placed my first sports bet ever on Holly Holm to win, a fifty-dollar bet that paid out about three-fiddy. It’s not important how I spent that money, but what is, is that I had a valid medical recommendation from a back pain specialist.

Holly was the first fighter who Ronda couldn’t bully to the ground and had the striking prowess to maintain distance on the outside and expose Ronda’s overrated standup. It was a clinic that night, punctuated with a Shang T’sung head kick fatality that recorded Holly’s initials at the top of the high score screen.

In her first title defense, Holm was dominating Miesha Tate when she slipped on a banana peel and gave up a late takedown. With a minute and a half left in the fifth round, Holm went out to a rear-naked choke. That was fate foreshadowing the rest of her career, snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory. In 2017 she was robbed of being the UFC’s first women’s featherweight champion when the judges inexplicably awarded Germaine de Randamie the belt. A belt she refused to defend against Cyborg and quickly vacated.

Having fought every female legend in the sport, except for Gina Carano, Holly Holm is still a contender and headlining big cards. This weekend, once again, she will look to climb back into title contention when she faces the very technical striker, Irene Aldana. Holm is coming off a very lackluster win against Raquel Pennington and has alternated wins and losses ever since the de Randamie fight. Her other losses in that span came to Cris Cyborg and Amanda Nunes.

Fear and nerves have dominated Holly throughout her career more than any other opponent. For Holly, at the end of this post, I will post the Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear for her to recite every day until she has conquered fear.

Holm tends to shadowbox during fights, throwing punches while standing in one place instead of committing and covering distance. Holly prefers not to lead the dance and relies too much on naked left hands with no setup. For a women’s boxing Hall of Famer, Holly’s hands and footwork are very basic when she steps into the cage. Her kicks, up the middle and round, and her wrestling have been her most effective tools.

Against Pennington, Holly implemented a boring game plan, holding Pennington against the fence for nearly the entirety of the fight. Holm averages less than three significant strikes a minute and prefers to counter-strike while moving backward. In close fights, she isn't active enough and simply fights scared.

Irene Aldana could be the perfect opponent for Holly, one who moves forward continually and stays active. Or she could be a terrible opponent for Holly, one who can’t be bullied against the cage and stays on the outside and picks her apart. Aldana almost triples Holm’s output at over six significant strikes per minute and uses her jab better than nearly anyone in the UFC, male or female. She works everything off of her jab and has power in her right hand and heavy leg kicks.

Aldana has won six of her last seven and is coming off a first-round KO of the highly regarded Ketlen Vieira. Irene is also a good counter striker who looks to land her right hand as she slips out of the pocket. However, her forward pressure is what can win her the fight. She has to jab her way in and look to land combinations and try to be creative. She tends to get repetitive with her striking, throwing the same predictable strikes over and over.

I don’t see a finish in this fight. This is as tough a fight to call as any toss-up. I can see Holly using her wrestling to slow Aldana down against the cage for the majority of the rounds, and I can see Aldana out working Holly in a back and forth point fight, her higher striking output giving her the edge. Aldana has landed over one hundred significant strikes in three-round fights three times in her UFC career, and Holly hasn’t come close fighting in mostly five-round main events. I'm going with Aldana via decision. Aldana could turn out to be the only viable contender for Nunes in the featherweight division after Nunes destroys Megan Anderson later this year.

Winner: Irene Aldana | Method: Decision

Yorgan De Castro (-235) vs. Carlos Felipe (+200)

De Castro: DK: $8.9k, FD: $18 | Felipe: DK: $7.3k, FD: $14

Don’t let the body mass indexes fool you; this is going to be a quick banger. De Castro has vicious leg kicks and won a UFC contract on the Contender Series when he won the fight via leg kick TKO. He won his debut with a first-round KO of Justin Tafa and was smoking Greg Hardy in the opening round of his last fight before he inexplicably stopped throwing strikes in the last two rounds. He literally didn't throw any strikes in the second round and only two in the third.

Carlos Felipe lost his UFC debut back in June after he stole Paulo Costa’s future game plan of getting hit with everything his opponent threw and then shaking it off like it didn’t hurt. He has heavy hands and is aggressive, throwing combinations with heavy forward pressure. Felipe has better hands than De Castro, but he’ll have to defend leg kicks, especially early in the fight.

Felipe gassed late in his last fight and was dominated on the ground by Sergey Spivak. Both of these guys have heavy hands and can end the fight at any time. Castro’s lack of output late in the Hardy fight worries me, but I think his leg kicks can slow Felipe down and open up an opportunity to land heavy hands. The value in both of these fighters is the potential for them to end the fight; their output is too low otherwise to justify a Fantasy roster spot. De Castro via second round TKO.

Winner: De Castro| Method: TKO Rd.2

Germaine de Randamie (-134 ) vs. Julianna Pena (+105 )

de Randamie: DK: $8.6k, FD: $18 | Pena: DK: $7.6k, FD: $12

Germaine de Randamie had the weakest reign of any UFC champion ever. Ever ever. She was gifted a bogus decision and won the featherweight belt against Holly Holm, then refused to defend it against Cyborg, citing a ten-year-old failed drug test as the reason. Lame with a cape on; super lame.

The positives: de Randamie has world-class striking and won the standup exchanges in her last fight, a title shot against Amanda Nunes. She can beat anybody in the world on her feet, utilizing long punches and kicks to remain on the outside of her opponent’s reach. She has classic Dutch style kickboxing, which focuses on leg kick combinations and bodywork.

The negatives: her ground game and lack of takedown defense. Before the Nunes fight, I would have also said her heart, but in that fight, she fought her way out of several bad situations. In the first round, she looked on the verge of quitting but managed to survive the round. She even had Nunes briefly out on her feet after landing an up-kick from her back.

Julianna Pena has only fought three times since 2015, and in July of 2019, ended a two-year hiatus. She’s returning after another yearlong layoff and is facing a top tier fighter after beating Nicco Montano in July of 2019. Pena’s weakness is her opponent’s strength, and her strength is her opponent’s weakness. It’s takedowns or bust for Pena in this fight, and if she’s able to consistently get de Randamie to the ground and maintain top control, she will win this fight. If de Randamie can stay and get back to her feet, she will dominate the standup.

Both fighters’ significant strikes landed top out at around forty. de Randamie is a cerebral, technical striker, and Julianna uses her striking as a means to close the distance and secure takedowns. As I’m looking at these fights, Fantasy points are going to come at a premium. Again, I don’t see a finish in this fight, and it’s another complete toss-up. de Randamie’s takedown defense was terrible against Nunes, but I think she'll keep it standing for longer stretches in this fight and make Pena walk through a lot of strikes to get takedowns. On wax, Germaine de Randamie, decision.

Winner: Germain de Randamie | Method: Decision

Dequan Townsend (+260) vs. Dusko Todorovic (-300)

Townsend: DK: $7.1k, FD: $11 | Todorovic: DK: $9.1k, FD: $20

This one is a little more straightforward. Dequan Townsend isn’t very good. He’s 0-3 in the UFC and is this week’s Ibragimov. My man, Townsend, looks like MMA’s 2 Chainz and is about to film a new episode of Most Expensivest, most expensivest KO. He’s going to get KO’d and likely receive his walking papers.

Townsend is long and rangy and has whip-like arm punches and tends to chase his opponents when he throws combinations. He often runs into takedowns and is an invalid from his back. For the most part, he’s a one-punch striker with very little variation in his strikes, no kicks, knees, or elbows.

Dusko Todorovic fights with his hands down a lot and relies on head movement and footwork to make his opponents miss. Sometimes he gets caught and has some scary moments, and the only way he loses this fight is by being too nonchalant when defending Townsend’s strikes.

Dusko has a first-round TKO victory over Michel Pereira, which led to his invite on the Contender Series. He’s light on his feet and bounces around the cage, always throwing peppering shots. His footwork is sneaky. It grants him creative entries into the pocket, where he lands slapping kicks and punches; he strikes to land more than he strikes with the intent to KO his opponent. Dusko likes to use the cage and dirty boxing to wear down his opponents.

At nearly seven significant strikes landed per minute, Todorovic is the better Fantasy roster addition. His striking is more dynamic, and he'll create more opportunities for a fight-ending sequence. Townsend averages just over one significant strike landed per minute, and he isn't a wrestler/grappler. I’m going with Todorovic, via second-round TKO.

Winner: Dusko Todorovic | Method: TKO Rd.2

Prelims

Kyler Phillips (-480 ) vs Cameron Else (+380)

Phillips: DK: $9.2k, FD: $21 | Else: DK: $7k, FD: $10

It’s going to be tough to beat Kyler Phillips, especially when it’s your big debut, and you’re making a big leap up in competition. Phillips is a well-rounded fighter who can attack wherever the fight goes. He’s a high output striker who mixes kicks with his punching attacks, and he likes to overwhelm his opponents with flurries of shovel-hooks when he gets them retreating.

On the ground, Phillips forces scrambles and is constantly hunting for chokes during grappling exchanges. One of the best attributes you can have as a grappler is the ability to scramble and advance position and open up holes in your opponent’s game. Kyler flows between submission attempts and ground and pound well, and by eliminating the necessity to keep the fight standing, he can be aggressive with his striking.

Cameron Else is 7-4 with four KO’s and three submission victories, and he’s making his UFC debut. This is a tough draw for him. I was able to find one of Else’s fights on Facebook, and it was a second-round TKO loss from 2017. He hasn’t lost since and is on a three-fight winning streak.

Else appears to be the brawling type who likes to overwhelm his opponents with volume. That works well in the smaller promotions and is an amateur tactic that can pad someone’s win-loss record. As you climb the ranks, the over-aggressive brawlers tend to get weeded out. But, the brawler is a dangerous fighter always capable of landing a fight-changing punch and setting into motion a quick finish.

That won’t happen here. Sign Phillips to a one-day Fantasy contract on Saturday night. Phillips is just more dynamic and polished than Else appeared to be. I like the possibility of a finish in this one too. I’ll take Kyler Phillips, via round two TKO.

Winner: Kyler Phillips | Method: TKO Rd.2

🚨Upset Alert: Every week a relatively unknown fighter scores a big upset; at (+380), this will probably be the fight I drop a little twenty-twen-twen on. Last week I dropped twenty on Diego Sanchez so...

Carlos Condit (-110 ) vs. Court McGee (-110 )

Condit: DK: $7.9k, FD: $16 | McGee: DK: $8.3k, FD: $17

I was shocked when I looked at Carlos Condit’s record; I couldn’t remember the last time he fought, and more importantly, the last time he won. Carlos is on a five-fight losing streak, has lost six of his last seven, and eight of his last ten. That’s Carlos Condit. His last win was in 2015 against Thiago Alves, and that was a doctor stoppage due to a cut. Unfortunately, as a fan of Condit’s and fellow 505 Albuquerque, NM representative, I won’t be celebrating a Condit victory for the first time in half a decade.

Fifty-five significant strikes, that’s the total number of strikes Condit has landed in his last four fights, total. He’s slow, his footwork is clumsy, and he doesn’t have any respectable power. Condit has always been more of a counter fighter who throws combinations while moving backward. His offense is his defense, but as he's gotten older, he doesn’t have the speed to implement that style anymore. He won the interim welterweight title in 2012 against Nick Diaz while rarely moving forward and initiating the striking exchanges.

Court McGee is going to win this fight. He’s coming off a close decision loss, which I thought he won, against the highly touted Sean Brady almost a year ago. Court’s backstory is character building on a Brandon Sanderson level. He’s overcome a lot in his life, and it shows when he fights. He can’t be broken and will stay in any fight until the bitter end. He has been fighting in the UFC for over a decade and has only been finished once since 2010.

McGee is a slow, plodding, awkward striker who has a way of just hanging around like the turd you can’t shake off. He lands at nearly five strikes per minute and landed over one hundred significant strikes against Brady. I’d stay away from Condit and think about picking up McGee for your fantasy rosters. I can see Court getting a stoppage late, but I think I’ll take the decision. Court McGee via decision.

Winner: Court McGee | Method: Decision

Charles Jourdain (-450 ) vs. Josh Culibao (+325 )

Jourdain: DK: $9.3k, FD: $22 | Culibao: DK: $6.9k, FD: $9

This one is hard to call. Culibao has only one fight to study, and it was his UFC debut in February against the very long, very tough Jalin Turner. He was at a big size disadvantage and got picked apart on the outside by Turner. Culibao was TKO’d in the second round, and that’s all we have to go by for him. His striking looked good, he uses lateral movement and puts combos together well, but he couldn’t close the distance against Turner.

Charles Jourdain is a good fighter; he has high-level striking and went toe-to-toe with Andre Fili in his last fight this past June. He mixes flashy spinning techniques into his striking, but not just for show; he sets them up and actually lands them. A southpaw, Jourdain has a fight-changing left hand and throws a variety of kicks with a high output that he maintains for the duration.

Jourdain KO’d the Superboy Doo Ho Choi last December, after being dropped early in the fight. His standup lacks defense, and he tends to take a lot of damage and can be bullied and overwhelmed by heavy forward pressure. Given the fight stays standing, Jourdain will give you about sixty to seventy significant strikes. I’m going to give Culibao the benefit of the doubt and say this fight goes the distance. Give me Charles Jourdain via decision.

Winner: Charles Jourdain | Method: Decision

Jordan Williams (-150 ) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (+125 )

Williams: DK: $8.7k, FD: $17 | Imavov: $7.5k, FD: $15

This could be a fight of the night candidate. Jordan Williams is making his UFC debut after fighting on the Contender Series three times. His first win on the show was overturned because he got high, because he got high, because he got high. A diabetic, Williams is unable to cut weight and elects to compete at middleweight, where he gives up a lot of size.

Jordan is a wild card, he's not technically pleasing to the eye, but he's deceptively powerful and stays busy. He has whipping, Nate Diaz-like arm punches that he peppers his opponents with. He throws most punches just to get them over the plate until he sees an opening and sits down on a left-hand fastball.

Imavov is another fighter making his debut with little file footage available for prefight analysis. I was able to find his last fight, which only lasted four minutes into the first round, and I was impressed. This guy looked to have polished striking with tight, short punches. His hands were definitely more dynamic than Williams’, and he uses a wider variety of combinations.

Defense seems to be lacking on this card, and Imanov is no exception. An excellent offensive striker, he doesn’t use much head movement and relies mostly on staying just outside of his opponent’s range to avoid strikes. Imanov is the slight underdog in this one, and I started writing this with the intention of picking him to win. Experience means a lot, and Jordan Williams has the edge, and I think he’ll hang around and have a late comeback victory. Give me Williams, via third-round TKO.

Winner: Jordan Williams | Method: TKO Rd.3

Loma Lookboonmee (-125 ) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (-105 )

Lookboonmee: $8.5k, FD: $14 | Frey: DK: $7.7k, FD: $15

This is going to be a fun fight. Loma is a world Muay Thai champion and has the typical Tong Po style striking. The Thai have a unique way of throwing strikes using their hips to propel their kicks and knees and their shoulders to propel their elbows and hands. Elbow strikes are thrown like punches and fold at the elbow just before impact. Loma uses all her limbs to strike and is especially strong in the clinch.

Lookboonmee uses the clinch to trip her opponents and has a pretty solid ground game. She’s young in her MMA career with a record of 4-2 but went the distance with Angela Hill in an entertaining bout in her last fight in February.

Jinh Yu Frey competed in Invicta and Rizin before making her UFC debut in June against the Jiu-Jitsu wizard, Kay Hansen. She was submitted in the third round of that fight but was very competitive and showed good grappling skills. Her standup just can’t compete with Lookboonmee’s, and she’ll likely look to get this fight to the ground and maintain top position.

Neither is a finisher, and Loma out works Frey in significant strikes landed five to two. The smart pick is Frey to secure takedowns and rack up top control time, but I’m going with Lookboonmee. I think she will scramble to her feet and pull away in the standup. Loma Lookboonmee, via decision.

Winner: Loma Lookboonmee | Method: Decision

Casey "They Killed" Kenney (-250) vs. Alateng Heili (+200)

Kenney: DK: $9k, FD: $19 | Heili: DK: $7.2k, FD: $12

Don’t miss these early prelims; this one is going to be a high level back and forth fight that has a little bit of everything. Casey Kenney is a southpaw with heavy kicks and quick hands. He counter-strikes well while moving backward with combinations and strings together long combos when he moves forward and enters the pocket. His standup reminds me of a knock-off T.J. Dillashaw without the stance switching.

Kenney has fought four times in the UFC and has faced stiff competition with the likes of Ray Borg, Merab Dvalishvili, and Louis Smolka. His only loss is to Dvalishvili, who is a sleeper and dark horse title contender. He was taken down a record twelve times in that fight, but that also means that he got up twelve times.

Alateng Heili is known for his wrestling, but he hasn’t put it on display as much as he should in his first two UFC fights. When he does, his double and single leg entries are very seamless, and he gets his opponents to the mat quickly. His standup is strictly boxing, with no kicks or creative combinations. Heili tends to headhunt and rarely goes to the body to switch up from his repetitive one-two combos. There’s power in his right hand, but he tends to overwhelm with a barrage of punches rather than changing the fight with one big shot.

This is the Dollar General T.J. Dillashaw versus the .99 Store Merab Dvalishvili, and I’m rocking with the Dollar General. I think Kenney is the more dynamic, well-rounded fighter who uses more techniques to attack. He won’t light up the fantasy scoreboard without a finish, and he won’t get it here. On wax, Casey Kenney via decision.

🚨Upset Alert: At (+200) Heili could be a good look.

Winner: Casey Kenney | Method: Decision

Luigi Vendramini (-120 ) vs. Jessie Ayari (-110)

Vendramini: DK: $8k, FD: $17 | Ayari: DK: $8.2k, FD: $16

Jessin Ayari trains under Master Rex out of Preston, Idaho. He has a wide, Karate style stance with low hands and an upright posture. As is the theme on this card, he really doesn’t defend strikes at all and looks to use subtle slips and counters while exiting the pocket to avoid strikes. Chop his leg. He doesn’t defend leg kicks, and if you’ve been reading this newsletter every week, I usually mention you have to have a plan for an opponent’s leg kicks.

Ayari doesn’t have a traditional jab and usually covers distance by leaping in with short, quick combinations. He has quick hands and good round high kicks and is basically a Payless Wonderboy. He’s 1-2 in the UFC and currently on a two-fight losing streak, but he did go the distance with Darren Till in 2017. This fight will be his first in two years.

Luigi Vendramini is another little-known fighter with one fight in the UFC in 2018, in which he was KO’d with a flying knee in the second round. That’s it; that’s all I got on Vendramini. He’s 8-1, with four subs and four KO/TKO’s, and he’s got a tough task against Ayari. From what I saw, Luigi is a par-for-the-course striker and will likely look to get Ayari to the mat. He landed only four strikes in the nearly two rounds he spent in the Octagon and didn’t look like a volume striker.

I don’t see much value in either fighter; Luigi uses a moderate output at around the sixty significant strikes range. I’ll take Ayari to win via decision.

Winner: Jessie Ayari | Method: Decision 

Holly, this is for you. Fear is the mind-killer. Catch ya’ll next week.

Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear

I must not fear.

Fear is the mind-killer.

Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.

I will face my fear.

I will permit it to pass over me and through me.

And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.

Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

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