We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Fight Night Brunson vs. Shahbazyan Thoughts

I sank slowing into the coalescing blanket of whirling steam that amassed just above the water’s glassy surface, deeply inhaling the fragrant aroma of Mr. Bubbles, Original Scent.  There I slouched, awkwardly hunched forward with my knees crammed to my chest, basking in a frothy rich lather of self-satisfaction, the thick fog clouding any illusions of humbleness that might appear looming on the horizon.  

It was Fight Night, and I was on a roll with my picks. The night’s only hiccup being the ESPN Plus APP constantly freezing to the point that International streams (wink-wink) were probably more reliable.  I used a breaststroke motion to clear a path in the thick foamy bubbles, blowing them fluttering into the air as they clung to my hands, so I could see the iPad I had positioned on the edge of the tub.

I tunneled a clear line of sight just in time to see Jennifer Maia pivot out of closed guard with Joanne Calderwood’s arm firmly trapped with wrist control.  Calderwood attempted to roll out, but it was too late, only two options presented themselves; tap, or host a bring-you-own-marker cast signing party.  I didn’t see that coming.  Maia hadn’t had a submission victory since 2014, and she gets her first against the number one contender who took a fight she didn’t have to take in order to get a title shot?  What? 

Okay, okay.  All right, all right.  You can’t win them all, and this sport is probably the most unpredictable sport there is.  I was sitting up now, the water tepid with a dingy yellow tint, as Shahbazyan and Brunson entered the cage.  After the first round, the MMA world seemed firmly placed back on its axis, but… Damn Shahbazyan is looking gassed and looked desperate late in the first round, loading up on his punches searching for the KO.

And who is Shahbazyan fighting?  They said he was supposed to fight Derek Brunson, but this doesn't look like Brunson.  This guy is being patient and not rushing forward and swinging wildly, leading headfirst.  At the end of the second round, ten-year-old Cuba Gooding Jr. was tapping me on the shoulder, asking if I wanted to see a dead body.  

Derek Bruson did what Derek Brunson does; win fights.  The signs were there, and damn near the entire MMA community ignored them.  The signs were there when Shahbazyan fought Darren Stewart in his UFC debut.  He gassed in the second round of that fight, his only fight to see a second round.  The signs were there; we knew he trained at the worst MMA gym in the world, with the unanimously voted worst coach in MMA, Edmen Tarverdyan—head movement!  

We ignored them because Shahbazyan just looked different, and we all want to say we knew how good someone was going to be before anyone else did, AKA, amateur, Applebees Happy Hour clout chasing.  In the end, I was surprised, and then I wasn’t.  Brunson is/was the better fighter, and he has once again found a way to stay in the mix in the Middleweight Division.

I watched my ego swirl slowly down the drain, making a straw sucking the bottom of an empty cup sound and leaving behind a filthy ring around the tub.  Then I went downstairs, grabbed a mango White Claw, and started watching fights for this week’s Fight Night.

Last week we lost several fights as they were originally scheduled to take place, and another at the last minute when Trevin Giles caught the vapors just before making the walk to the cage.  Last-minute fight cancellations are nothing new to the sport but are likely to increase in the frequency of occurrence for the foreseeable future. 

Throw in the influx of unknown, talented new fighters making their way to the UFC via Dana White’s very successful Contender Series, and the promotion is more unpredictable than ever.  The Contender Series resumes tonight, or this past Tuesday by the time you read this (if you read this), and I finally broke down Homies.  I made the big plunge and traded Pandora premium for a UFC Fight Pass membership.  This weekend’s card, much like the previous one, showcases several athletes who came up through the Contender Series pipeline.

While lesser-known, up and coming fighters comprise the majority of this Fight Night’s dais, the main event features two OG’s with a combined seventy-three career finishes between the two.  The co-main event sees a forgotten yet familiar face, Chris Weidman, the man responsible for the second-largest upset in UFC history, the first being Matt Serra defeating GSP.  He’s trying to get back on track after losing five of his last six bouts and had the first round been five seconds longer when he fought Kelvin Gastelum, a six-fight losing streak.  But enough gum-bumping, let’s get into it.

Main Card

Derrick Lewis (-210) vs. Alexy Oleinik (+170)

Lewis: DK: $8.7k, FD: $21 | Oleinik: DK: $7.5k, FD: $16

Joe Rogan steps into the Octagon looking like a Jet Li movie hitman, clad in all black, the stadium lights projecting a faint halo against his baldpate.  It’s just moments after Derrick Lewis’s last-second comeback KO of Alexander Volkov in 2018, and Joe is ready to conduct the post-fight interview. Momentarily on hold while Derrick puts his fight shorts back on, Joe waits patiently before thoughtfully asking, "Derrick, why did you take your pants off?" 

“My balls was hot,” Derrick replied.

“Understandable,” said Rogan, suppressing a chuckle.

It was one of the few times I could truly relate to a fighter’s plight.  In fact, as I write this, it’s in the mid-nineties, and my thighs are sticking to the pleather of my Amazon gaming chair, rocking nothing but a pair of chonies and slide chanclas. 

Derrick Lewis is one of the Great Wonders of the UFC.  He's a fan-favorite not only because of his lighthearted nature but also because he has lullabies in his fists that rock people to sleep.  Lewis is 14-5 in the UFC, and his two most recent losses came courtesy of former champions, including a Heavyweight title shot against the former Champ-Champ Daniel Cormier.  He has eleven UFC KO’s and has finished nineteen of his twenty-three professional victories.

Lewis doesn’t operate at a high strike rate, landing on average just two and a half strikes per minute.  He fights in spurts and has some of the most exciting and most boring fights in UFC history.  But Derrick Lewis fights can go from zero to one hundred real quick, as he can finish any fight, at any moment.

Like a pair of granny drawers, there’s nothing sexy about Alexy Olineik.  Slow, plodding, he’s not explosive, but Oleinik has some of the gaudiest career stats that you’ll ever see.  Oleinik has over seventy MMA bouts, including twelve in the UFC with an 8-4 record.  His last three UFC losses came via KO/TKO.  He has fourteen Ezekiel choke victories and forty-six total submission victories on his record, and out of fifty-nine total wins, he has finished all but five fights.  That’s fifty-four finishes for all of you counting on your hands.

Analytics would suggest someone is definitely going to be finished in this fight.  If Lewis can stay on his feet for long stretches, he's going to KO Oleinik.  And if Oleinik gets Lewis to the ground, especially late in the fight, it's likely going to be a wrap.  The good thing is that neither of these fighters will cost you premium Fantasy salary cap dollars.  Lewis will cost $8,700 and Oleinik $7,500.

If you take one of these guys, you’re betting on a finish and will likely be left with busts either way if this fight goes the distance.  Lewis is a low-output fighter, and Oleinik’s standup is not very efficient; he’s a grappler.  Don’t let his last victory against Fabricio Werdum fool you.  But if you find yourself in need of a low-cost fighter with a high fight ending potential, he’s your guy.  If he can get top position on Lewis at any time during the fight, I can see him locking in an arm triangle and tapping Lewis.

Winner: Flips Coin... Best 2 out of 3... Derrick Lewis | Method: TKO Rd.2

Chris Weidman (-130) vs. Omari Akhmedov (+100)

Weidman: DK: $8k, FD: $16 | Akhmedov: DK: $8.2k, FD: $17

You’ve heard of going through a rough patch, well, Chris Weidman is Army crawling through a thorny orchard with no end in sight.  I’m picking Akhmedov to win this fight, and mostly because I have trust issues with Weidman.  These two fighters are evenly matched, averaging close to three significant strikes per minute.  Weidman, however, averages close to four takedowns a fight, while Akhmedov averages two and a half.

I give the striking edge to Akhmedov, who has the power to get anyone’s respect on the feet, even though he’s not a fluid combination striker.  Akhmedov hasn’t finished a fight in five years, and I don’t think that will change after this one.  Akhmedov fades late in fights, and if Weidman can get this to the third round, he may have an opportunity to pull ahead.

Weidman needs to get this fight to the ground early and often and grind out Akhmedov.  It won’t be easy getting Omari down, as he stuffs over sixty percent of takedowns and does well getting back to his feet when he is taken down.  Weidman will cost $8,000 against your Fantasy cap and has been a historical Fantasy bust since his win against Vitor Belfort.

Akhmedov will cost $8,200 and averages just over sixty Fantasy points a fight.  I expect a long, slow, grinding fight with a lot of dead air from whoever gains the top position. 

Winner: Omari Akhmedov | Method: Decision

Darren Stewart (-170) vs. Maki Pitolo (+140)

Stewart: DK: $8.6k, FD: $17 | Pitolo: DK: $7.6k, FD: $14

I’m going to say someone gets knocked out here.  Both fighters have heavy hands, but both also have big holes in their game.  Stewart is a big middleweight with heavy hands when given space.  He fought Edmen Shahbazyan in Edmen’s UFC debut and lost a fight that he would’ve won via TKO if there was another minute left in the fight.      

Stewart doesn’t manage distance very well and allows himself to get pressed up and held against the cage for long stretches.  He throws nasty elbows from the bottom and can get up when taken down but fights lazily in the clinch.

Maki Pitolo came up through the Contender Series and has gone 1-1 in his two UFC fights.  He is an undersized middleweight and used to compete at welterweight.  He throws punches in bunches and is aggressive.

Pitolo doesn’t use much footwork or head movement and tends to fight emotionally at times, getting into wild exchanges.  He drops his hands and squares up to his opponent during exchanges, and that favors the power puncher Stewart.  There’s a clear path to victory for Pitolo; clinch Stewart against the cage and trip him to the ground, and make him get up repeatedly.

Stewart’s game plan should be to stay in the center of the cage, avoid the clinch, and keep Pitolo on the outside.  I’m going to say Pitolo will be auditioning for a Sleep Number Mattress commercial at the conclusion of this fight, with a six firmness.

Darren Stewart is just under Derrick Lewis at $8,600 for much of the same reasons, his potential to end the fight.  If this fight ends before the final bell, I think it’s Stewart getting his hand raised.  Even at $7,600, I don’t see you getting much bang for your buck with Pitolo.

Winner: Darren Stewart | Method: TKO Rd.3

Julija Stollarenko (+190) vs. Yana Kunitskaya (-240)

Stollarenko: DK: $7.4k, FD: $13 | Kunitskaya: DK: $8.8k, FD: $16

Stay away from this fight.  I’m just not impressed by either fighter.  It’s hard to believe that a commission sanctioned a title fight between Kunitskaya and Cyborg two years ago.  She lost her last fight via TKO to Aspen Lad, who blitzed Kunitskaya to start the third round and overwhelmed her.

From the one fight I was able to find, Stollarenko has a reckless, rudimentary standup game perfect for a cardio kickboxing instructor.  She last fought back in March against low-level competition in Invicta FC.  Kunitskaya lands five significant strikes per minute, and I expect her to push the pace and out-work Stollarenko. 

Stollarenko appears to be a durable fighter with a good chin, so I’m going pick Kunitskaya to win the fight via decision because somebody has to.  At $8,800, I’m just window-shopping on Kunitskaya.  I’m sure the cap hit reflects Kunitskaya’s experience against veteran women such as Lina Landsberg, Marion Reneau, and Cyborg, and Stollarenko's lack of experience against such fighters. Stollarenko is sitting on the clearance rack in the back by the restrooms at a sixty percent reduced price of $7,400.

Winner: Kunitskaya | Method: Decision

Beneil Dariush (-175) vs. Scott Holtzman (+145)

Dariush: DK: $9.1k, FD: $18 | Holtzman: DK: $7.1k, FD: $14

This one is going to be a banger.  This fight features two aggressive veterans with solid all-around games.  Dariush is on a four-fight winning streak and a three-fight KO/Sub finishing streak.  He’s coming off an overhand left KO victory over the tough Drakar Klose back in March.  Although Dariush has very respectable striking and power in his left hand, he is a world-class grappler.  His path to victory lies on the mat, where he has five UFC submission victories, including two of his last three wins.  In three of his four career losses, and his lone draw, Dariush did not score a takedown.  The ground game is where he shines.

Scott Holtzman is a sleeper and a tough out for anyone in the Featherweight division, anyone.  He has an excellent overall record of 14-3 and is 7-3 in the UFC.  His only losses came against top competition: Nik Lentz, Drew Dober, and Josh Emmett.  He’s coming off a win in February against Jim Miller, and has won five of his last six bouts. 

Holtzman has good takedowns and overall ground game, but I think he’ll want to keep this one standing.  He has a slight advantage on the feet, as he throws short tight combinations. Dariush has long strikes and does not put combinations together well inside the pocket.  The problem for Dariush is that he gets drawn into wild exchanges in the pocket where he gets beat consistently in his fights.  Short, crisp punches beat long, looping punches every day, and I see Holtzman taking advantage of this.

Early odds have Dariush around -155 and Holtzman at +145.  I’m going to take the underdog in this one.  Holtzman can stay or get back to his feet consistently enough to edge out a close decision victory, but this is a toss-up fight.  If you told me after the fact that the fight ended before the final bell, I would say Dariush finished it with a sub.  I don’t see Holtzman finishing Dariush.  

Dariush is going to be a $9,000 Fantasy cap hit with an average Fantasy Points Per Fight of seventy-two.  Holtzman’s average Fantasy points are eighty-three and lands more sigficant strikes at nearly 2-1 to Dariush.  But Holtzman is sitting next to Stollarenko at seventy-five percent clearance at a $7,100 cap hit.  Fantasy ballin’ on a budget; I like Holtzman here. 

* I finished writing, and this fight kept bothering me.  I’m changing my pick.  Beneil gets the win with takedowns and top control.  I think Dariush will implement a takedown-heavy game plan, and being a BJJ black belt, he should be able to dominate the grappling exchanges.  If you’re looking for a good dog pick, Holtzman is still a good look, though.

Winner: Beneil Dariush | Method: Decision

Prelims

Tim Means (+110) vs. Laureano Staropoli (-140)

Means: DK: $7.9k, FD: $16 | Staropoli: DK: $8.3k, FD: $17

This is another fun fight.  These fighters never stop throwing strikes, both are durable, and both either finish or get finished.  Staropoli moves forward and is very active with a full arsenal of strikes.  He throws heavy kicks in combination with his hands and has a propensity to throw a lot of spinning attacks.  His weakness is that he doesn’t strike well going backward and tends to retreat in straight lines.  He has a close win against Thiago Alves (which I thought he lost), and fought the scary Muslim Salikhov in his last bout and showed extreme toughness to make it to the final bell.

Tim Means is the definition of a veteran, with twenty-one UFC bouts.  He has twenty-nine professional wins and finished twenty-four of those wins.  He’s also an urban dictionary definition of a gatekeeper.  He’s coming off of a submission loss and beat the aforementioned Thiago Alves via guillotine choke in late 2019.  He throws a variety of strikes at a high volume and also absorbs a variety of strikes at a high volume.  If he moves forward often and pushes Staropoli backward, he will win this fight.

Means is getting close to his sell-by date and will come with a Fantasy price tag of $8,000.  Staropoli would be a solid pick up at $8,300.  Significant strikes landed will be high for both fighters and would make good picks.  I’m going to go with Staropoli via decision as my pick, put it on wax.

Winner: Photo Finish... Staropoli | Method: Decision

Nasrat Haqparast (-235) vs. Alex Munoz (+185)

Haqparast: DK: $9k, FD: $19 | Munoz: DK: $7.2k, FD: $11

If I were Kelvin Gastelum’s legal representation, I would suggest he sue Nasrat Haqparast for copyright infringement.  Nasrat stole Gastelum’s whole style and didn’t provide a bibliography, no sources cited.  His striking is very similar to Gastelum, and his biggest weapon his overhand left.  He was KO’d in his last fight against Drew Dober, but Dober is no slouch.  Nasrat will need to control distance and keep his striking long. He has the solid overall game that you would expect from any fighter training at TriStar Gym.

Little is known about Alex Munoz other than his lone fight on the Contender Series.  He fought Nick Newell—who is missing one arm below the elbow—and had all sorts of problems on the feet.  He’s a Team Alpha Male fighter and Oklahoma State wrestler, so you know he’ll want to get this fight to the ground quickly and keep it there.

Nasrat is the better fighter, from the better training camp and nine of his eleven professional wins are TKO/KO’s.  I like the potential for a finish here if he’s able to stuff takedowns and get back to his feet.  Haqparast will cost you $9,000 because of his potential to produce a finish and his far superior experience.  

Munoz was pulled from the shelf and sitting next to the trash compactor at $7,200.  At $7.2k, I still probably wouldn’t take him.

Winner: Haqparast | Method: TKO Rd.3

Andrew Sanchez (+130) vs. Wellington Turman (-160)

Sanchez: DK: $7.7k, FD: $15 | Turman: DK: $8.5k, FD: $17

Andrew Sanchez looks like a tough dive bar fighter.  He’s the type to walk in, open a tab, stand by the jukebox, and walk out with a split decision victory after last call.  He has the most fights in the UFC without me ever having heard of him, and he fought the monster Marvin Vettori in his most recent fight last year.  He went the distance in that fight.

Wellington Thurman is 1-1 in the UFC, even though I thought he won his debut against Karl Roberson.  Wellington isn’t very active from his back when he gets taken down, but he has good takedowns and top control.  However, he’s not a very active striker from the top and had just twenty-five significant strikes with four takedowns against Roberson.  His striking is very par for the course and nothing flashy.

Sanchez is the early +120 dog, and I like his experience against better competition and higher strike output.  I’ll take Sanchez in a decision because he looks to be the more active fighter.  At a $7,700 cap hit, I think Sanchez is the better pickup as opposed to Turman’s $8,500.

Winner: Sanchez | Method: Decision

Gavin Tucker (-140) vs. Justin Jaynes (+110)

Tucker: DK: $8.4k, FD: $18 | Jaynes: DK: $7.8k, FD: $13

This one is weird.  Tucker has a side job in Hollywood, CA, as a street performer taking pictures with tourists, dressed like Cody Garbrandt.  Tucker looks better than he really is, and Jaynes might be better than he appears to be.

Tucker has very good takedowns, specifically, the single leg.  He’s a fairly active striker from the top position and actively looks to advance his position.  His standup looks better than it is, and he has had shaky moments on his feet in all of his UFC bouts.

Jaynes KO’d Frank Camacho in forty seconds in his UFC debut in June but fought a janitor on his lunch break at a Flying J in his previous fight.  He has a very good left hook that he likes to lead with, like a way less talented Roy Jones Jr.  This will be a huge leap in competition for Jaynes, and Tucker is another TriStar Gym fighter who will have a wrestling-dominant game plan.

I’m taking the Great Value Cody Garbrandt via third-round rear-naked choke.  Why not?  Google some of Justin Jaynes fights, and I dare you to tell me his opponents weren’t tailgating before the fights.  Tucker comes with a medium-range price tag at $8,400 and has a favorable matchup.

Winner: Tucker | Method: Strangulation Rd.3

Youssef Zalal (-450) vs. Peter Barrett (+325)

Zalal: DK: $9.3k, FD: $19 | Barrett: DK: $6.9k, FD: $11

Zalal is a massive favorite and opened at +350, which was Shahbazyan’s magic number last week.  His striking is excellent, and he has solid takedowns and grappling.  Straight lines get fighters KO’d, and Zalal is a great example of someone who uses angles when retreating from the pocket.  He reminds me of Edson Barbosa but with more movement and a better ground game.  He’s 2-0 in the UFC with two dominant decision victories.  In his UFC Debut, Zalal secured six takedowns and remained active on top by advancing positions. 

Barrett is another guy making his debut fresh off the Contender Series.  I know I watched his last fight, but I don’t remember a damn thing about it.  My notes say, “Contender Series” and “leads with his left too much.”  Barrett is a Southpaw, so according to my extensive notes, he leads too often with his power hand and doesn’t set it up.  He had four takedowns in his last fight, and that will probably factor heavily into his game plan.

At a $9,300 cap hit, Zalal will be costly. Although he is an excellent striker with great timing and distance management, he is not a KO artist.  He has two KO victories and five submission wins in his career. For that price, I need a guaranteed dub, and I don’t think that’s part of the return policy.  I think Zalal will win another unanimous decision and will look to step up in competition in his next fight.  

Barrett is no longer on clearance and was returned to the manufacturer as defective, at a cap hit of $6,900.  So… yeah.

Winner: Youssef Zalal | Method: Decision

Irwin Rivera (-210) vs. Ali Al Qaisi (+170)

Rivera: DK: $8.9K, FD: $18 | Al Qaisi: DK: $7.3k, FD: $12

I think this will be a fun fight, mostly because Rivera is a whirlwind in the cage.  He made his UFC debut on a week’s notice, moving up in weight to Featherweight to fight the Glory Kickboxing veteran Giga Chikadze.  In the first round, Rivera gave the much larger Chikadze all he could handle by throwing everything, starting with the kitchen sink. Rivera is high energy and not afraid to exchange.

I found some grainy home video of one of Al Qaisi’s fights, and I think he’s going to slow Rivera down and press him against the cage to take him down, grind him out.  If Rivera stays on his feet, he wins.  If Al Qaisi can secure takedowns, he wins.      

I wouldn’t take a chance on Rivera at a price of $8,900.  Al Qaisi can make this a slow, awkward fight and could make for low Fantasy point-scoring.  

Winner: Coin Flip... Al Qaisi | Method: Slow cook 350 Degrees for 3 rounds

Kevin Holland (-347) vs. Joaquin Buckley (Miracle)

Holland: DK: TBD, FD: TBD | Buckley: DK: TBD, FD: TBD

This fight literally popped up as I was finishing this.  Holland was supposed to fight a couple of days ago, but Trevin Giles got woozy before the walk-out, and the flight was canceled.  I know nothing about Buckley, but he’s a Bellator veteran with a 10-2 record.

I picked Holland to beat Giles last week, and I’ll stick with him here.  Another Contender Series Alumni, Holland, is 4-2 in the UFC with two finishes.  He’s long, rangy, and athletic, and at 6’3” he’ll have a huge height/reach advantage over the 5’8” Buckley.  Buckley’s stature would suggest he’ll be looking for takedowns, which could lead to opportunities for Holland to end the fight early.  

Winner: Holland | Method: TKO Rd.2

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves. 

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy. 

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