We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Somewhere, right now, Irene Aldana is still chasing Holly holm around the cage. Irene, take one step to your right. Thanks.

Main Card

Marlon Moraes (+115) vs. Cory Sandhagen (-145)

Moraes: DK: $8k, FD: $19 | Sandhagen: DK: $8.2k, FD: $21

I plan to give Cory Sandhagen a handwritten letter to hand-deliver to Jerry Jones this Saturday night when he straps on his gasoline boots and walks through hell. The first round against Marlon Moraes will most definitely take place there, in a thirty foot octagonal cell next to the furnace. If Sandy doesn’t have an answer for Moraes’s leg kicks, he may never leave.

Marlon Moraes doesn’t operate on the outer fringes that blacken and curl but never quite set ablaze; he’s in the pit where all the inner demons you never knew existed dwell. If you’ve never been there, it’s difficult to find your way out without experience as your guide. Though, not all hope is lost. If you can manage to defend his lead leg kicks and counter his heavy hooks with power punches of your own and slow his forward pressure, you can survive into the second round, where there’s a cool breeze of hope flowing from an open window at the end of a fiery hallway.

Moraes was about a quarter tank of gas away from being the bantamweight champion when he dominated the Triple Champ, Henry Cejudo, in the first round of their title fight, before he slowed then came to a screeching halt in the third round.

I’ve been watching Magic Marlon fight since he dominated the World Series of Fighting’s bantamweight division at the same time Justin Gaethje was dominating the lightweight division. He’s been one of the most explosive fighters in the sport for several years, and as Joe Rogan mentions every time his name comes up, Moraes has the fastest switch step round kick ever.

If you examine his technique, it’s textbook; no wasted movement, every strike remains tight until impact. One of the fundamentals of kickboxing is following punches with kicks and kicks with punches, nothing naked, each strike is thrown with a purpose, to maximize the success of the one following. His hand and kick speed are unmatched in his division, and so is his aggression. At least in the first round.

Missing punches, loading up, and taking damage all increase a fighter’s fatigue during a fight. Marlon is usually tried and convicted on all three charges, particularly loading up on his punches and throwing every strike as a knockout blow. He’s very dynamic with his lead leg and can throw it round, up the middle, low, or high at any moment. He throws heavy combos and hides leg kicks behind them. The problem is, after the initial five minutes, he has to fight in spurts, conserving energy and giving back valuable ground gained.

He’s 5-2 in the UFC since making his debut in 2017 against Raphael Assuncao, a fight that he lost but I thought he won. I thought he was gifted his last victory last December against Jose Aldo, but after watching the fight again, I think he won that fight. Surprisingly, his cardio held up, and he was more active than I remembered throughout the fight. He controlled the majority of the fight with power punches and kicks early in the fight and had Aldo wobbling in the opening seconds from a left high kick.

Cory Sandhagen started his UFC career by winning five straight before being submitted by Aljamain Sterling in June in just over a minute. He made a mistake early in that fight by giving up his back against the cage, and Aljo capitalized by sinking in a rear-naked choke with the quickness. The win opened the door for Aljo to challenge Petr Yan in his first title defense, but Sandhagen remains in the title mix.

Distance. Sandhagen needs to control it and strike from the outside with his jab and teep kicks. He needs to set traps for Marlon by drawing him forward and countering Marlon’s heavy shots. Averaging over twice the significant strikes landed than Moraes does, Sandhagen is going to have to overwhelm with volume and mix his attacks. Leg kicks, you already know, he has to have a plan for Moraes’s leg kicks; defend them, counter with strikes of his own, attempt takedowns off of them, or just get the hell out of the way.

Cory has good lateral movement but fights with his hands low and tends to take a lot of unnecessary damage. He’s five foot eleven inches, but crouches in his stance and brings his head down to a shorter opponent’s striking range. He likes to bait opponents into counters by sticking his head out, trying to illicit strikes that he can pull back on and counter. Even though he was submitted in his last fight, he has a solid ground game with an active guard, in which he creates scrambles and can use submission attempts to get back to his feet.

What’s interesting about this fight is that Moraes opened as the (-135) favorite but is now the dog at (+120), and Sandhagen is now favored at (-150). I think the action on Sandhagen reflects that it's basically a two-round fight for Moraes. If you’re going to bet on Moraes, you’re betting on a first or second-round finish, about a ten-minute window of opportunity. Sandhagen has a ten-minute hike through hell but a larger window of opportunity to take advantage of from the third round on. Moraes has fought in five-round bouts but has never been past the third. This fight will be Sandhagen’s first five-rounder, but I have no doubt he has the cardio to pull away late if it gets to the championship rounds.

Okay, okay, enough yip yappin. I have no idea who wins this one. In the end, I think Moraes’s power will be too much for Sandhagen. Cory will have to take a lot of risks in this one and might look to grapple a little, but I see Marlon landing something heavy and early, most likely a high kick. He throws a lot of kicks early in his fights, and blocking a kick is impossible. If it touches you, it landed. Marlon Moraes via TKO, round two.

Winner: Marlon Moraes | Method: TKO Rd.2

Edson Barboza (-260) vs. Makwan Amirkhani (+200)

Barboza: DK: $8.8k, FD: $19 | Amirkhani: DK: $7.4k, FD: $13

Edson Barboza is another hell-dweller with the second fastest switch-left kick in the game. His name is in the pantheon of the sport’s great leg kickers, Justin Gaethje, Marlon Moraes, Pedro Rizzo, and so on. He brutalizes the opponent’s legs and uses spinning kicks with the efficiency that most fighters use a jab.

I didn’t realize Barboza has lost five of his last six fights, even though he was robbed in the Valero bathroom in his last fight against Dan Ige. Usually, the first symptom of a waning career is dropping from your natural weight class to compete against smaller athletes. That’s true here, but I can’t see him losing this fight. It’s tailor-made to get him back on track. It’s the equivalent of sending a pitcher to the minors for a couple of starts to get his confidence back.

Makwan Amirkhani is all grappling, which is a style built to neutralize an elite striker. The problem for Amirkhani is he doesn’t have the dynamic takedowns needed to make up for the large discrepancy in striking. A southpaw, Makwan has a decent power straight left hand, but he telegraphs it and throws it naked too much. Problem number two for Amirkhani, he gasses after the first round. Barboza doesn’t.

I like Barboza to get on track with a TKO late in the fight, making him a solid Fantasy roster starter. Makwan averages just over a significant strike landed per minute and has only sentimental value without a submission. On wizzy wax, Edson Barboza via TKO, round three.

Winner: Edson Barboza | Method: TKO Rd.3

Ben Rothwell (-165 ) vs Marcin Tybura (+135 )

Rothwell: DK: $8.5k, FD: $18 | Tybura: DK: $7.7k, FD: $16

Halloween is the perfect time of year for Ben Rothwell; it’s the time of year when he can blend in with his surroundings and not stand out like a green hat with an orange bill. Rothwell is the final boss of a 90’s video game or the Sandman in Jean Claude Van Damme’s classic movie, Death Warrant. He’s a stalker, a Richard Ramirez in fight shorts, who never has to run but manages to stay just a step behind his fleeing victims.

Big Ben is slow and plodding with sneaky power and has thirty four finishes in thirty eight professional wins. He’ll stay in your face, take your best shot, and keep moving forward. He’s on a two-fight winning streak but was gifted a dub in his last outing against OSP this past May.

Marcin Tybura was once a promising heavyweight prospect, but despite being in the midst of a two-fight winning streak, he’s not as dangerous as he once was. His striking hasn’t evolved, and now he mostly relies on clinching against the fence and praying for a takedown to fall into his lap.

Rothwell went toe-to-toe with the much more dynamic OSP in his last fight and even convinced the judges that he won; if he can avoid the clinch and keep his back off the cage, he should win this fight. Tybura was KO’d twice just a year ago, and I like Rothwell to win via late TKO. I think his hands and forward pressure will wear down Tybura if he’s not able to get the fight to the ground and forced to stand for long stretches. Ben Rothwell via TKO, round three. There it is, on wax.

Winner: Ben Rothwell | Method: TKO Rd.3

Markus Perez (+125) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (-155)

Perez: DK: $7.8k, FD: $16 | Du Plessis: DK: $8.4k, FD: $17

Markus Perez is a fun fighter and throws a lot of flashy spinning ish, but he is a fantasy dud when it comes to points. He’s a standup fighter with good, creative Muay Thai, and in his career has never been finished. On a good night, he’ll give you forty to fifty significant strikes landed and have some moments that could produce a finish. He struggles in a traditional kickboxing type of fight and needs more of a less structured free form style to maximize his potential. He has power in his hands but tends to throw single shots rather than combos.

Dricus Du Plessis is the first of many unknowns on this card and has only one half-round of fight footage available. He was the champ in his last promotion, which was sort of a fight club for the arena’s janitors and looks rather stiff on his feet. He looks to be a striker but has nine submission wins in fourteen professional wins.

Perez needs to be wary of Du Plessis’s right hand, but he should be the more dynamic, unpredictable fighter and has fought much tougher competition. I’m taking Markus Perez via decision. Who knows, Du Plessis could be that sleeper who has the advantage of his opponent having no fight footage to study while he has plenty to study on his.

Winner: Markus Perez | Method: Decision

Tom Aspinall (-550 ) vs Alan Baudot (+375)

Aspinall: DK: $9.4k, FD: $21 | Baudot: DK: $6.8k, FD: $8

Banger alert. Both of these fighters fall in the Dricus Du Plessis category, little known fighters making their UFC debuts. Last year, Aspinall won a fight via Anderson Silva broken shin TKO when he checked his opponent’s leg kick. That was one of two fights I was able to find. Aspinall is a solid striker, light on his feet with quick hands, and all of his eight professional wins are first-round KO/TKO’s.

Aspinall throws short, quick combinations with his hands and mixes in standing knees and heavy kicks. He appeared to be a polished striker and was originally scheduled to face the wrestling-dominant Sergey Spivak. Spivak was a late scratch, and now Aspinall faces a fellow striker in Alan Baudot.

B.Dot’s only available fight was the only fight he’s lost. In that fight, he was KO’d in twenty-six seconds. And I mean really KO’d. My man stood at attention and gave a full military salute to his opponent on the way down after eating a nasty right hand. I was able to find a short highlight real for B.Dot on Facebook, and he throws bombs. Bombs and spinning elbows and more bombs. He tends to get wild with his striking and looks to instigate a brawl.

Someone is getting KO’d in this fight, and I’m going to say its Baudot. I think Aspinall appears to be the more technical fighter and can make this fight more of a traditional kickboxing match. Tom Aspinall via TKO, round two. Whoop, there it is. Pick him up with a second round draft pick.

Winner: Tom Aspinall | Method: TKO Rd.2

🚨 Upset Special: I think Aspinall wins, but I don't think their skills are at as large a discrepancy as the odds are. May not be worth dropping a twenty-two-twen on, but I'll drop a little ten-spot on Baudot real quick.

Prelims

Youssef Zalal (-200 ) vs. Ilia Topuria (+160 )

Zalal: DK: $8.6k, FD: $17 | Topuria: DK: $7.6k, FD: $15

Youssef Zalal is getting a late replacement opponent, as he was originally scheduled to face a tough test in Seung Woo Choi. Zalal is that dude; an up and coming, young highlight reel. Flashy striking techniques with solid wrestling and grappling, that’s Zalal in a shell’s nut. He’s 3-0 in the UFC, but despite his dominance, has yet to record a finish in the Octagon.

As good as Zalal’s striking is, he has been dominating fights with well-timed takedowns and good top control. When standing, he utilizes excellent lateral movement with quick, straight punches and a variety of kicking techniques. On average, he’ll score fifty to sixty significant strikes in the course of three rounds, but it’s hard to say he’ll score a finish even against a guy I’ve never heard of.

All I’ve got on Ilia Topuria is that he’s undefeated at 8-0 with seven submission victories. Zalal’s path to victory may lie on the feet, as this guy appears to be into BDSM and choking his opponents; all of his submission wins are via choke.

I’m picking half-Stevie on this one, having never seen Topuria scrap. But it’s hard for me to imagine Zalal losing this fight given his edge in experience and his ability to thrive wherever the fight goes. Youssef Zalal, via decision.

Winner: Youssef Halal | Method: Decision

Tom Breese (TBD) vs. K.B. "Ferris" Bhullar (TBD)

Breese: DK: $9.1k, FD: $18 | Bhullar: DK: $7.1k, FD: $14

Tom Breese is a Firas Zahabi trained fighter, and that always matters. It tells you that the fighter will be technically proficient and fundamentally sound. You know the Zahabi trained fighter will show up with a well-strategized game plan. Breese is a Southpaw with excellent power punches and kicks. He can fight with forward pressure, and he can slip and counter with his left hand and heavy body kicks. I love fighters who work the body, and Breese changes levels with his strikes and manages distance well.

Breese was smoked rotisserie-style in his last fight against Brendan Allen last February. But Allen is a monster and dominated Breese on the ground, finishing him from the top position with strikes in the first round.

K.B. “Toys” Bhullar is another little known 8-0 fighter making his UFC debut. All we know about Bhullar is from two highlight reels posted on Facebook. Of course, highlight reels don’t reveal much about a fighter’s weaknesses, but from what I saw of his strengths, I think he has a good chance to come away with a victory in this fight. Elbow strikes appear to be a big part of his striking game, both standing and from the top position on the mat. He has a wide Muay Thai type of stance with excellent round and up the middle teep kicks.

Bhullar’s hands don’t seem as dynamic as his kicks, and he has a very upright stance with little defensive head movement. Breese will look to land his heavy left leg to open up windows for his left hand to land behind it. It’s only a feeling, and I’m picking against logic, but I’m taking K.B. Bhullar via decision. Don’t @ me bro.

Winner: K.B. Bhullar | Method: Decision

Chris Daukaus (+220 ) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira (-280 )

Daukaus: DK: $7k, FD: $11 | Ferreira: $9.2k, FD: $19

The Daukaus curse is real. Just two months ago, I wrote about Chris Daukaus: “Daukus is a $7,700 Fantasy cap hit, and you might as well wipe your Fantasy ass with that $7,700.” He went on to win via first-round TKO and made Denver omelets with the egg on my face. I went on to dismiss Shana Dobson in nearly the same breath, and she pulled off, odds-wise, the biggest upset in UFC history.

Fast forward to Saturday night, and Daukaus will step back into the cage for the first time since that fateful day, and I will once again pick him to lose. It’s not you, Daukaus; it’s me. I’m just not sold. I’m canceling after the trial period; I’m not buying it. Daukaus has deceptive hand speed and footwork and works his way into the pocket well behind his jab. He’s not very dynamic and is, for the most part, a boxer wearing four-ounce gloves. His hands tend to get sloppy when exchanging extended combinations in the pocket, and he just hasn’t fought very tough competition.

Rodrigo Nascimento is a par-for-the-course striker with decent takedowns and very heavy top control. He’ll use those decent takedowns to gain the top position and eventually work his way into a rear-naked choke in the second round. He has heavy strikes but slow hands, and a sneaky head kick he throws like a magician pulling a dime from behind your ear. He’s 8-0 with six subs and two TKO/KO’s, and recorded submission wins on the Contender Series and in his debut back in May.

Daukaus could catch Nascimento like he did Parker Porter in his debut and might be worth the gamble on your roster. I just think Nascimento has a better chance to finish the fight and has enough striking to take the fight to the ground. Rodrigo Nascimento via rear-naked choke, round two. Wax on. Wax off.

Winner: Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Impa Kasanganay (-250 ) vs. Joaquin Buckley (+195 )

Kasanganay: $8.9k, FD: $19 | Buckley: DK: $7.3k, FD: $12

The parade of fighters I’ve recently written off continues with Impa Kasanganay. I picked him to lose about a month ago to Maki Pitolo, and of course, he went on to have the performance of a night. To my credit, there was little known about Impa at the time, and I wasn’t alone in my dismissal of his raw abilities.

Impa reminds me of the welterweight King, Kamaru Usman. He’s long, big, and strong, and has deceptively effective striking. It’s not the most fluid, smooth striking with fancy combos and footwork, but it’s accurate and inflicts a lot of damage. In addition to Impa’s striking, he has excellent takedowns and earned his way into the UFC by taking down his opponents and keeping them there. He’s only been fighting professionally for two years, but he’s learning quickly.

Joaquin Buckley is a beast. A monster. This dude is huge and throws bombs. He’s spent time at middleweight but fits in as a large welterweight with KO power. Just a few weeks ago, Buckley made his debut at middleweight against the killer, Kevin Holland. He held his own in the standup even though he gave up a lot of length to the taller, longer Holland but eventually was TKO’d in the third round.

I think Buckley will have trouble getting inside of Impa’s long strikes, and when he does, he will end up on his back. Impa will maintain top control for long stretches and grind out Buckley for a decision win. I like Impa on my Fantasy roster, he landed eighty-five significant strikes in his debut, and if he does gain top position often, the significant strikes could be higher. Impa Kasanganay via decision. At $7,300 Buckley would be a good play for a long shot KO and could flip the script in your favor if he does.

Winner: Kasanganay | Method: Decision

Ali Al-Qaisi (+180) vs. Tony Kelley (-230)

Al-Qaisi: DK: $7.5k, FD: $15 | Kelley: DK: $8.7k, FD: $18

AlQaisi is a wrestling-dominant fighter with slightly below average striking. He made his UFC debut a month ago against Irwin Rivera and lost a close decision. He will look to secure takedowns and make this a boring fight. He’s a position grappler who looks to advance and secure submissions rather than try to end the fight with strikes.

Tony Kelley is a fun striker who has a Karate hybrid style who attacks with brief blitzes and can fight from either the orthodox or southpaw stance. He’s a high volume, combination striker who threw over two hundred fifty strikes in his debut. Kelley does serious damage in the clinch, using both knees and elbows.

The red flag for Kelley is that he gave up five takedowns against Kai Kamaka, and I think AlQaisi may be a better wrestler than Kamaka. The toughest matchup to call is the classic striker vs. grappler. Kelley could be worth the gamble if he’s able to get back to his feet often because he will be taken down. Even in a win, AlQaisi will only give you moderate Fantasy numbers, but I’m picking him to control long stretches from the top position. Ali AlQaisi via decision.

Winner: Ali Al-Qaisi | Method: Decision

Giga Chikadze (+120 ) vs. Omar Morales (-150)

Chikadze: DK: $7.9k, FD: $16 | Morales: DK: $8.3k, FD: $17

This will be the fight of the night; it should at least be on the main card, if not the co-main event. Chikadze is a veteran of the Glory Kickboxing organization and challenged for the featherweight title twice. Giga is a master of managing distance, similar to Stylebender, and even finishes combos with imaginary Hadouken's. No joke, he throws Hadoukens mid-fight.

Orthodox or southpaw, Chikadze can throw any kick ever invented from either stance and is perpetual lateral movement personified. He fights with his hands low and uses footwork to avoid strikes, and in his last fight against Irwin Rivera, he showed solid takedown defense.

Omar Morales also has excellent kicks, they’re not as diverse as Chikadze’s, but his round kicks are more powerful. He disguises his kicks with punches in front of them and has KO power but only has two TKO/KO’s in ten pro wins. His six submission wins can fool you; he doesn’t look for takedowns but takes advantage of knockdowns by jumping on his opponents and hunting for chokes.

Don’t miss this one. There is very little chance of this one going to the ground without a knockdown. Both fighters are moderate, technical strikers who won’t rack up significant strikes and are evenly matched, making a finish unlikely. Give me Giga Chikadze via decision.

Winner: Giga Chikadze | Method: Decision 

Tracy Cortez (-200 ) vs. Stephanie Egger (+160)

Cortez: DK: $9k, FD: $17 | Egger: DK: $7.2k, FD: $10

Here are the cliff notes: take Tracy Cortez, she will control the standup and will dictate where the fight will take place. She will end up in top position and will stay there for as long as she wants to. Egger is making her debut coming from the Buddy Gym promotion. The Buddy Gym. That’s all you need to know. Cortez isn’t much of a finisher, but she has the ability to tally a large number of significant strikes and takedowns and position advances. Tracy Cortez via decision.

Winner: Tracy Cortez | Method: Decision 

Bruno Silva (TBD ) vs. Tagir Ulanbekov (TBD )

Silva: DK: $6.9k, FD: $9 | Ulanbekov: DK: $9.3k, FD: $20

If their name ends in “aev” or “ov” and you’re fighting them, you’re in for a long night. If they train with team Khabib Nurmagomedov, you’re in for a long night. Tagir checks both of those boxes. He’s making his UFC debut against the tough Bruno Silva, who has a solid ground game and pedestrian striking.

We could see a grappling stalemate in this fight, and a standup fight would slightly favor Ulanbekov, mostly because Silva tends to gas late in fights. I’ll take Tagir Ulanbekov via decision, but I won’t be signing him to a Fantasy contract on Saturday night.

Winner: Tagir Ulanbekov | Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

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