We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

What can I say?  I’m a glutton for punishment; I’m back with another Fight Night breakdown, but you can’t look forward without taking a look back first.  What did we learn from Fight Night Smith vs. Rakic?

Disappointments:

Robbie Lawler.  In my heart, I knew how the fight would play out, and it was close to identical to what actually transpired.  Once again, a disinterested Lawler showed up, making you wonder why he’s still fighting.  He landed only fifteen more significant strikes than I did on Saturday night, and a prime Ruthless Robbie Lawler would have smoked Neil Magny.  Robbie’s done.

Anthony Smith:  He’s done at Light heavyweight; he has to be.  Even though I picked Rakic to win the fight, Anthony Smith looked shook, and if we know one thing for certain, ain’t no such things as halfway crooks.  Smith was run over, then backed up on, and then ran over again like Suge Night was behind the wheel.  It’s time for another drop to middleweight for Smith. 

Surprises:

Bill Algeo:  I knew he was a loose, creative fighter, but I didn’t know he had that kind of dog in him.  Although he was dominated in the third round, it was 1-1 heading into it, and Algeo had Lamas in trouble multiple times.  Algeo is definitely a fighter to keep an eye on and won’t be reporting for duty at In-N-Out any time soon.

Impa Kasanganay:  I wasn’t impressed at all with Impa’s previous fights on the Contenders Series.  His physical strength carried him through both fights and made up for his lack of technique.  On Saturday, just eighteen days after his last Contenders Series fight, a different Kasanganay showed up.  A Kasanganay that looked a lot like an early version of the welterweight champ, Kamaru Usman.  Keep Impa in mind for future matchups; I’m sure he’ll be fighting again in the next couple of weeks.

Okay, on to the next one, on to the next one— Swizz Beatz voice.

This week we have an MMA legend facing an up a coming knock out artist in the main event.  If the last few weeks have taught me anything, it’s that the younger generation fighters are beginning to take over the sport.  We are slowly witnessing the changing of the guard almost every single week.

It will be no different this week when Alistair Overeem faces Augusto Sakai.  Also on the card are a couple of fighters you’ll be talking about at the virtual water cooler on Monday.  Michel Pereira and Alexander Romanov are wild; they howl at the moon and never fail to put on a show, win or lose.  There are no gimme’s on this card, as has become the norm with the influx of young fighters and late replacements every weekend.

Main Card

Alistair Overeem (-155) vs. Augusto Sakai (+125)

The Reem: DK: $8.8k, FD: $22 | Sakai: DK: $7.4k, FD: $19

Alsitair Overeem has been KO’d all over the world.  He’s taken naps in places most of us have only dreamed of.  He’s also done his fair share of reading lullabies and sending them off to snooze time with a warm bah bah.  Ubereem isn't quite the same fighter who dominated MMA outside of the UFC, before making his debut with the promotion and destroying Brock Lesnar.  

It’s been a braille-like journey for Overeem since the Lesnar fight, which saw him contend for the heavyweight title only once back in 2016 against Stipe Miocic.  He’s been KO’d fourteen times in his MMA career, not counting his professional kickboxing career in K-1.  His style has completely changed over the years, from a long, rangy, aggressive striker, to a hunched over, tactician only willing to engage on his own terms.  He often looks to clinch and take the fight to the mat rather than stand and bang.

Against the anesthesiologist, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Overeem fought a very tactical fight, only to turn into DeSean Jackson at the one-yard line. He promptly spiked the ball and tore defeat out of the sure hands of victory.  He came back this past May with a TKO of Walt Harris, after managing to stave off drowsiness in the opening seconds of the fight when he was almost KO’d himself.

Alistair is still powerful, very technical, has excellent fight IQ, and will always have experience on his side when he steps into a cage. The only question is, how much does his chin have left? In his last six fights, he is 3-3 and has either KO’d his opponent or been KO’d by his opponent.  

Augusto Sakai is… is huge.  Not huge as in Francis Ngannou, or Paulo Costa, but huge as in Roy Nelson or Andy Ruiz.  He’s never heard of Keto, or broccoli, or quinoa, or shopped at Whole Foods, but don’t let that fool you; this dude knocks people out.  He’s 15-1 with eleven KO’s and is coming off a war with the highly underrated Blagoy Ivanov.  An Ivanov who could easily have gotten the nod in his last two fights against Derrick Lewis and Sakai. 

Everything Sakai throws is heavy, kicks, and punches.  He has excellent leg kicks and a nasty overhand right.  He also throws a counter-right as he exits the pocket while moving backward that is a KO waiting to happen.  Five rounds are the key in this one.  In three-round fights, Sakai has excellent cardio for a man who looks like he’d be gassed just from making the walk to the cage.          

Sakai is vulnerable to the body, and body striking is a strength of Overeem's, who uses knees to the body better than anyone in the sport.  Southpaws seem to cause problems for Sakai as well, and Overeem can fight out of either stance.  I expect to see Overeem use the southpaw stance a lot in this one unless he can’t defend the body kick from that stance.

Early odds, Overeem opened as a (-270) favorite and has settled around (-175) at the moment.  The Reem has averaged about one hundred fifteen Fantasy points in three of his last four bouts. If he wins, I don’t see a finish.  If Sakai wins, it will likely be by early KO.  

Sakai is valued at $7,400, and I think that’s a steal if he can avoid the clinch and stay off the cage.  He has excellent output and can end any fight at any moment.  I'm definitely looking at Overeem in the higher price tier, at $8,800, he should be able to get a takedown here and there and pick up some significant strikes in the clinch.

There’s a lot on the line for this one; I’m looking to start a main event-winning streak for the first time after alternating wins and losses the last several weeks.  Give me… I really want to take Sakai; I don’t trust The Reem’s chin.  He was a couple of hammer fists away from losing to Walt Harris in the opening seconds, but I’m going to play it safe and pick Overeem, decision.

Winner: Alistair Overeem | Method: Decision

Ovince Saint Preux (+110) vs. Alonzo Menifield (-135)

OSP: DK: $7.9k, FD: $16 | Menifield: DK: $8.3k, FD: $18

OSP was originally scheduled to face Shamil Gamzatov, and I thought he dodged a bullet when Shamil had to drop the fight.  Then I saw his new opponent was another monster in Alonzo Menifield.  Early odds have OSP as the dog in this fight, and I’m surprised given Menifield’s last fight against Devin Clark.  Clark survived the first round, and then Menifield visibly gassed and was taken down and held against the cage for the majority of the fight.

OSP can duplicate Clark’s game plan, and wear down Menifield in the clinch and against the cage.  OSP has submissions in his back pocket, specifically, The Von Preux Choke, which he has used to finish four fights from side control.  Striking, OSP is more dynamic, mixing unorthodox boxing with a variety of kicks.  

OSP’s major malfunction, his lack of aggression and unwillingness to throw anything for long stretches.  He’s a lot like John Dodson in that regard.  If OSP isn’t able to secure a submission early in a fight, he is a fantasy dud.  He simply does not throw/land enough significant strikes or secure takedowns.  His Fantasy Cap price is $7,900, and I started writing this with every intention of picking OSP to win via arm triangle in the second round.  But I’m not going to.

Menifield’s striking is a lot like a more technical Brock Lesnar, and he has finished all nine of his Pro wins with eight KO’s/TKO’s.  All but two of those wins came in the first round, with the other two ending within thirty seconds of the second round.  I think Menifield’s chances of finishing/winning the fight wane as the fight progresses passed the first round.  

His takedown defense is pretty solid, but he tends to get lazy against the cage, and he’s never thrown a jab in his life.  He’s a hooker (as in throws nothing but hooks), and OSP has to be careful with throwing naked kicks with no setup, as Menifield will punch right through them.

This is a complete toss-up.  Does OSP survive the first round and wear Menifield down with takedowns and clinch work, or does Menifield come out throwing bombs and catch OSP early?  At $8,300 and as a good a chance to produce an early finish as anyone on this card, I like Menifield, and he’s averaged seventy-six fantasy points in three UFC fights.  Menifield, second-round TKO. After much debate, I changed my mind; I think OSP weathers the storm and grinds out Alonzo. OSP via decision.

Winner: OSP | Method: Decision

🚨 Sijara Eubanks vs. Karol Rosa has been canceled 🚨

Eubanks: DK: $7.7k, FD: $11 | Rosa: DK: $8.5k, FD: $15

Eubanks is getting a last-minute replacement opponent in Karol Rosa, and it’s one of those times when a fighter goes from a favorable matchup to staring down the barrel of a tail whoopin overnight. 

Karol Rosa is deadly on her feet, with clean, powerful striking in which she mixes excellent up the middle and leg kicks into her attacks.  She always goes forward and never stops putting strikes together.  She’s strong in the clinch and can get the occasional surprise takedown off of her strikes, with heavy ground and pound for punctuation.

Eubanks is in trouble, and if you’ve been paying attention the last few weeks, every time I write off a fighter, they usually pull off a huge upset.  I.E., Shana Dobson two weeks ago.  A female version of Kevin Lee, Eubanks is very strong and has power in her hands with solid wrestling.  She’s not very technical, doesn’t put punches together well, and has suffered from lack of output in her career.  

Eubanks has never been finished, but I think that streak comes to an end here.  Rosa will be $8,500 but has scored over one hundred Fantasy points in both of her UFC wins.  I’m taking Rosa via third-round TKO.

Winner: Karol Rosa | Method: TKO Rd.3

Michel Pereira (-110) vs. Zelim Imadaev (-110)

Pereira: DK: $8.2k, FD: $17 |Imadaev: DK: $8k, FD: $16

You’ll never forget Michel Pereira if you haven’t already seen him fight.  Stop right now, and google his fight against Tristan Connelly.  Just watch the first round, and you’ll know all you need to know about Pereira.  He literally came out doing an Olympic gymnastics floor routine complete with backflips and attacks off the cage.  He brings Cirque Du Soliel to the cage without the trapeze.  In the Connelly fight, he landed a rolling thunder kick that hurt Connelly, and also successfully used a backflip guard pass and landed on top of him.

He’s wild, off the leash taking dumps on lawns.  Once the theatrics are finished, however, he gasses hard and isn’t much of a threat except in spurts.  He’s a lot like Yoel Romero in how he fights in short stretches.  His hands aren’t.  It’s just his hand.  As in his right hand, that’s all he has.  He doesn’t throw combos or put punches together like a traditional boxer/kickboxer.  He’s terrible in the pocket, and he only has winging punches and no defense.  He uses Capoeira movements to try to hypnotize his opponents and lull them into becoming spectators and then explodes on them.

Pereira is capable of getting takedowns but just lies on top of his opponents to rest.  He’s a turtle from his back, and that’s the path to victory for Imadaev.  He’s 0-2 in the UFC and coming off a loss to Danny Roberts last November, a Danny Roberts who Pereira KO’d in the first round.  Imadaev isn’t great at anything, just ok in everything.  His only chance here is to survive the first round and work his way into takedowns and maintain top position.  He won’t finish Pereira, who’s 23-11 and only been finished twice.

The fight is pretty much a pick ‘em, dead even.  At a salary cap of $8,200, I’d probably take a chance on Pereira to get an early finish.  If he’s going to win, it will be early, and spectacular.  Imadaev is $8,000, and I’m canceling after the trial period; I’m not buying him.  Put it on wax, Pereira, via first-round KO.

Winner: Michel Pereira | Method: KO Rd. 1

Brian Kelleher ( ) vs. Kevin Natividad ( )

Kelleher: DK: $9.2k, FD: $18 | Natividad: DK: $7k, FD: $12

This was originally scheduled to be a very interesting matchup between Ricky Simon and Brian Kelleher, but Simon was forced to drop the fight.  This is one of those unpredictable Bill Algeo-type fights when a complete unknown fighter steps in last-minute to face a veteran UFC fighter.

Kelleher has noine fights in the UFC and has faced top-level competition to the likes of Renan Barao (a win), Jonh Lineker, and Marlon Vera.  He’s coming off a close loss to Cody Stamann back in June and is a solid technical boxer.  His down-forward quarter circle, Forward + Punch special move, is a spinning back fist, which is very sneaky, and he has a nasty lead hook.  He puts combinations together well, but drops his hands when throwing in the pocket and tends to exit with his hands down.  That could be an opening for a quick fighter like Natividad.

Natividad is making his UFC debut on short notice by way of the LFA promotion and has a solid 9-1 record.  The level of competition faced definitely comes into play here, as Kelleher will be Natividads toughest test.  Sharing some of the same weaknesses as Kelleher, Kevin tends to drop his hands when he extends combinations and gets caught watching his handiwork instead of angling off or rolling out of the pocket.  

Brian Kelleher should win this fight and dominate with forward pressure from the jump, not allowing Natividad to build any confidence.  Right now, there aren’t any odds or Salaries assigned for this fight, and it may get dropped altogether.  If these two do face-off, I like Kelleher to land heavy shots and get a finish.  Pick him up, and give me Kelleher, TKO, round two.

Winner: Brian Kelleher | Method: TKO Rd.2

Thiago Moises (+105) vs. Jalin Turner (-135)

Moises: DK: $9k, FD: $20 | Turner: DK: $7.2k, FD: $14

The classic grappler versus striker matchup, this fight is a sleeper.  Thiago Moises was thrown to the wolves fresh off the Contender Series when he made his UFC debut against Beneil Dariush.  He lost the fight but went the distance, and in his most recent fight, he beat Michael Johnson via a heel hook submission.  He’s an oddity, a grappler who doesn’t pursue takedowns but can finish from his back.

Moises’ striking is almost nonexistent and completely reliant on defensive counters rather than forward aggression. When he does throw strikes, he has excellent leg kicks and a good right hand.

On the other side of the cage is Jalin Turner, who is all striking with average grappling and suspect takedown defense. Turner is tall and often doesn’t use his reach well.  He tends to square his lead shoulder, shortening it, and allowing shorter fighters to get inside on him.  Almost every one of his fights has ended in the first round, the three that didn’t, he lost.  Matt Frevola was able to take Turner down at will, and that’s what worries me about him in this fight.

At $9,000, Moises is far from a sure shot, but I think he can replicate Frevola’s success against Turner.  In his two UFC wins, Turner averaged over one hundred Fantasy points.  If you find yourself searching the cellar for some canned peas, look at Turner and Sakai.  Turner can definitely win this fight, but I’m taking Moises via second-round rear-naked choke.

Winner: Thiago Moises | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Prelims

Andre Muniz (+120) vs. Bartosz Fabinski (-140)

Muniz: DK: $7.6k, FD: $13 | Fabinski: DK: $8.6k, FD: $18

This fight will provide the perfect opportunity to take a smoke break and fire up that sticky icky.  Fabinski is takedown or bust to the extent that he’ll chase his opponents around the cage like Tom does Jerry.  I’ll say this, Fabinksi scores a lot of Fantasy points for having a boring style.  While it looks like he’s not doing much from the top position, the little peppering body punches, the purple nurples, and the Charlie horses add up.  In his three UFC wins, he has averaged well over one hundred Fantasy points.   

The problem with this matchup for Fabinksi is that Andre Muniz has a solid ground game and… that’s it, just a solid ground game.  From the bottom, which he will most likely spend some time, Muniz has an active guard and looks to land subs.  His standup is on par with Fabinski’s, a one-punch striker with a powerful overhand right.  

This could turn into a classic stalemate and make for a boring fight.  I’d take Muniz at $7,600 over De Lima and Eubanks for his potential to land a submission.  Fabinski’s ability to maintain top control makes him a solid pick, and I’d take him over The Reem or Araujo.  Both are higher prices than Fabinski's $8,600 tag. I'll go out on a limb for this one; give me Muniz via armbar, round two.

Winner: Muniz | Method: Armbar Rd.2

Viviane Araujo (-200 ) vs. Hannah Montana De La Rosa (+170)

Araujo: DK: $8.9k, FD: $18 | De La Rosa: DK: $7.3k, FD: $9

It’s grappling or bust for Montana De La Rosa.  She began her UFC career with three straight submission victories but struggled when she wasn’t able to get the fight to the mat.  Striking is a problem for De La Rosa even when she secures takedowns, she just doesn’t do it.  She hunts for submissions with little to no ground and pound or peppering punches to soften her opponents.  It’s basically a NAGA grappling match when she fights.  In her last fight, she had her opponents back for almost two full rounds and spent the entirety trying to secure a rear-naked choke to no avail.

Viviane Araujo is a mini Yoel Ramirez in the way she moves but without the power.  She has excellent lateral and in-out movement and is never standing flat-footed.  All offense, Araujo has no defensive fundamentals, keeping her opponents on the retreat is her only defensive tactic.  Araujo fights in spurts and tends to slow down as the fight wanes from her perpetual movement around the cage.

Araujo struggled in her last fight against the perennial unimpressive Jessica Eye, while De La Rosa is coming off a snooze fest win over Mara Romero Borella.  I think Araujo has enough Jiu-Jitsu and decent enough takedown defense to stay on her feet and out of trouble on the mat and will dominate the striking.  I could see Araujo scoring around sixty to seventy Fantasy points in a decision victory.  $8,900 is a little steep for Araujo, but the top tier on this card is not offering much bang for your buck.  

At $7,300, De La Rosa might have a better chance of a finish if she can get the fight to the mat, whether on top or the bottom.  I like her as an option in the lower tier, and she averaged around noinety Fantasy points in her first three UFC victories.  I’ll take Araujo via decision.

Winner: Araujo | Method: Decision

Alexander Romanov (TBD) vs. Marcos Rogerio De Lima (TBD)

Romanov: DK: $8.4k, FD: $17 | De Lima: DK: $7.8k, FD: $16

Early odds have this fight at an even (-110), but I’d give Romanov a slight advantage because of his unpredictable, wild style.  This guy is fun to watch and comes out the gate looking to catch a body and a life sentence.  He's shot out of a cannon, rushing across the cage shooting Goldberg spears across the cage.  He has excellent slams and belly-to-back suplexes and aggressive, heavy ground and pound.

Romanov only has one level, one hundred, and looks to cause damage from every position.  It’s a toss-up between Romanov and Pereira on who is going to steal the show on this card.  He compliments his aggressive style with good cardio for such a huge man.       

De Lima is also huge with slow, sloth-like punches.  He has excellent leg kicks and is a one-punch striker.  Preferring to get the fight to the ground, De Lima has good top control and usually settles with holding opponents down and grinding them out.  

Romanov is making his UFC debut and will definitely be making a leap in level of competition.  All eleven of Romanov's professional wins have come by TKO or submission.  At $8,400, I’m taking him over the higher-priced Bartosz Fabinski.  It’s crazy that De Lima is a higher salary cap hit than Sakai at $7,800.  At that tier, I’m looking at Sakai or taking a chance of De La Rosa to get a submission.  Romanov, TKO first round.

Winner: Alexander Romanov | Method: TKO Rd.1

Cole Smith (+150) vs. Hunter Azure (-200)

Smith: DK: $7.1K, FD: $10 | Azure: DK: $9.1k, FD: $21

Hunter Azure is the highest salary cap hit on this card, and in two UFC bouts, averages forty fantasy points.  For $9,100, I’m just window-shopping; I’m not buying him.  

His opponent, Cole Smith, is the lowest cap hit at $7,100 and for good reason.  He’s fifty shades of boring.  He has the worst standup on the card and seems to break out into hives on the rare occasions that he actually throws any strikes, on the feet or on the mat.  I literally think he doesn’t understand the rules, and that he can throw punches and elbows and hurt people.  He’s hasn’t reached forty strikes in a UFC fight, and I was angry I had to watch some of his fights.

Azure… well, he swings for the fences, I’ll give him that.  Another fighter in the UFC by way of the Contender Series, Azure is 1-1 with the promotion and lost his most recent fight to the super veteran, Brian Kelleher.  I don’t know what to say about him; he’s an okay wrestler with okay grappling.  His striking isn’t very effective, but he tries.  For that, he gets an effort trophy.

If this isn’t the first fight on the card, it’s disrespectful to every other fighter on it.  Don’t mess with this fight.  Just leave it alone.  The loser of this fight will be us.  Give me Azure via snooze fest.

Winner: Hunter Azure | Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves. 

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy. 

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