We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Main Card

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+210 ) vs. Ciryl Gane (-270)

Rozenstruik: DK: $7.2k, | Gane: DK: $9k,

The Las Vegas Apex Arena became the Motel 6 last Saturday night. They left the light on for Curtis Blaydes and granted him a late checkout with a complimentary extended hour continental breakfast. Derrick mother-shut-your-mouth Lewis did it again. With his second-round KO of Curtis Blaydes, The Black Beast became the greatest knockout artist in UFC history, tying Vitor Belfort with twelve KO’s. But no one will ever accuse Lewis of being on the sauce like Vitor.

For the second straight week, the main event will feature a heavyweight bout between two dangerous strikers with near one hundred percent finishing rates. Jairzinho Rozentruik vs. Ciryl Gane will have major title implications and may provide the next opponent for Derrick Lewis.

Jon Jones is now also in the mix at heavyweight after vacating his long-held light heavyweight title. It’s hard to imagine Bones not getting an immediate title shot, but a matchup with Lewis or the winner of Rozenstruik and Gane would be nucking futs. After Francis Ngannou meets the Champ, Stipe Miocic, a title rematch, the number one contender picture will be as unclear as channel ninety-nine in 1997.

My new favorite fighter, Chris Daukaus, and Tom Aspinall, also had impressive wins last weekend, and this might be the deepest the heavyweight division has been in a long time. I’m talking when we had Brock Lesnar, Cain Velasquez, Shane Carwin, Frank Mir, and so on, all in their primes.

Rozenstruik vs. Gane will be similar to reading a Choose Your Own Adventure book, and the reader with the power to determine the course of the adventure will be Ciryl Gane. Gane’s approach will set the fight trekking down one of three paths.

One: Gane will show Rozenstruik too much respect, too judicious with his attacks, leading to a lackluster five-round tactical bout. When you match up two dangerous strikers with the ability to shut the lights off like G&E, sometimes it results in both fighters taking few risks, i.e., Francis Ngannou vs. Derrick Lewis.

Two: Gane will push an aggressive pace and attempt to overwhelm Rozenstruik with volume from the outside and force Rozenstruik to fight at a pace he can’t sustain. Rozenstruik is a very methodical striker who doesn’t take many risks and is ok with a booing crowd if crowds were still allowed. This scenario will make for an exciting, wild fight with an early dramatic conclusion.

Three: Gane closes the distance, clinches, and drags Rozenstruik to the mat, and grinds out a decision victory with intermittent dangerous exchanges in between takedowns. The problem with Rozenstruik isn’t his takedown defense; it’s his inability to get back up when he is taken down.

Rozenstruik has had twelve professional bouts, and only four of them have gone past the first five minutes. In two of those fights, his UFC debut against Junior Albini, and Alistair Overeem, Rozenstruik was taken down multiple times and controlled relatively easily. Both Overeem and Albini went on to get KO’d, but the point is, there’s a blueprint if you want to survive an encounter with Rozenstruik. The other blueprint is to rush him and overwhelm him with volume straight out the gate as Francis did in twenty seconds.

Some more gaudy Rozenstruik numbers: Eight of Rozenstruik’s eleven professional victories have come in the first round, four of those eight were inside of thirty seconds, and two of those four were inside of ten seconds. And that’s not counting Rozenstruik’s professional kickboxing record of 76-8 with sixty-four KO’s.

Against Allistair Overeem, Rozenstruik sent his lip six rows deep after The Reem turned into DeSean Jackson and spiked the ball at the one-yard line celebrating a touchdown. Upon further review, the refs overturned the call, the touchdown was taken off the board, and The Reem got KO’d literally at the final buzzer. Until that moment, the takedown threat lulled Rozenstruik into relative inactivity for the duration. When Rozentruik does decide to engage and comes forward with kicks behind his short power punches, it’s a wrap. Wrap-It-Up B.

Ciryl Gane is 3-0 in the UFC and made his debut after only three professional MMA fights. He has a 7-0 professional Muay Thai record and is a massive striker who moves like a middleweight. A leaf caught in the wisp of a cool autumn breeze, Gane is light and agile on his feet. Gane’s distance management is one of the best in the division; he uses continual lateral movement while doubling and tripling his jab to set up power punches.

Naked or thrown in combination with his hands, Ciryl uses an assortment of kicks, round and up the middle. He throws stabbing teeps (or foot jab or push kick) that are particularly useful in causing damage while maintaining distance and disrupting the opponent’s timing. Gane has a unique wrinkle in his kicking game; he changes the speeds of his kicks. Not only will he feint with his hips but also he’ll pause briefly after lifting his leg and disguise whether the kick is going to be round or up the middle. Or he’ll throw the kick all in one motion, and it becomes a lot like a pitcher supplementing a one hundred mph fastball with a seventy-five mph changeup.

With three takedowns in his fight against Don’Tale Mayes, Gane added another dimension for opponents to factor in with his elite striking. Gane’s takedowns will be the x-factor and can be the difference in close rounds. He can overwhelm you with strikes and then drag you to the ground where he has heavy ground and pound.

Both fighters receive Father’s Day Hallmark cards from Junior Dos Santos after each of them pappy’d Junior in their most recent outing. The more diverse striker/fighter is Ciryl Gane, but the fighter with the touch of death KO power is Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Gane opened as the near (-300) favorite, while Rozenstruik opened as the (+220) dog, and if Rozenstruik gets to that magical (+250) range, I might slap Jackson’s face down on the table.

Come Fantasy signing day, Rozenstruik could be the best option for a low-tier fighter with the highest potential of scoring a finish. But Gane is the chalk pick; he’s the far more diverse striker, and he has the ability to relocate the fight if he needs/wants to. Not only can he finish Rozenstruik, but he can also outwork him with pace for the entire twenty-five minutes.

Last week was the most certain I’ve been about the outcome of a main event in months; I have the same feeling for this one, and that makes me nervous. Ciryl Gane via TKO, round three. But then again, Jairzinho Rozenstruik isn’t Derrick Lewis.

Winner: Ciryl Gane | Method: TKO Rd.3

Nikita Krylov (+270 ) vs Magomed Ankalaev (-360)

Krylov: DK: $6.9k | Ankalaev: DK:$9.3k

This is a rare “laev” vs. “lov” matchup. That just means two proverbial killers will be sharing the same twenty-five-foot octagonal patch of earth at the exact same moment in time. In 2020, Magomed Ankalaev, Wayne Brady’d his bitter rival, Ion Cutelaba, not once, but twice, stole Ion’s ham sammich. Mr. Franklin’s lonely, Ion. In his last outing, Magomed scored his second first-round TKO victory over Cutelaba after dominating the standup exchanges. Ankalaev controlled the distance with footwork and used an educated jab to set up his fight-ending left hand.

The scary thing about Ankalaev is that striking is probably his second-best skillset. Magomed is the Light Heavyweight version of Khamzat Chimaev. He has excellent takedowns in the center of the cage or against the fence in the clinch. Like Chimaev, Ankalaev’s top control is stifling and accompanied by heavy, aggressive ground and pound. Ankalaev doesn’t have any major holes in his game, and he’s one of the guys to keep an eye on this year. Right now, if they were to fight, Ankalaev would create serious problems for the champ, Jan Blachowicz, or the hopeful Champ-Champ, Israel Adesanya. He has the style to beat them both.

Ankalaev’s only loss came with five seconds left in a fight he completely dominated against Paul Craig. With less than ten seconds remaining in the final round, Ankalaev was forced to tap to a triangle choke. Craig will be telling stories at the family reunion for years to come about the time he beat Magomed.

If you’re a new fan of the sport and want to gain a better appreciation for grappling and its intricacies, watch Nikita Krylov vs. Glover Teixeira. The scrambles and reverses and sub attempts were nonstop in that fight, and it could be a preview of this weekend’s matchup. Nikita Krylov is an elite wrestler/grappler with relentless takedowns and submission attempts.

Krylov is 27-7 overall with fifteen submissions and eleven TKO/KO’s on his professional record. Although Krylov has respectable standup, his bread and butter is wrestling. He strings together takedown attempts, singles to doubles, doubles to body locks, and rarely gives up on them. From the top position, Nikita implements continual grinding ground and pound to soften up the opponent and advance position. Submissions are Krylov’s means to an end more so than using heavy strikes.

The problem for Krylov is that Ankalaev is better than Krylov in every category, including grappling. The path to victory for Ankalaev is on the feet and not giving Krylov an opportunity to land a submission. For Krylov, it’s wrestling or bust. The only question for me is can Ankalaev finish Krylov? Six of Krylov’s seven professional losses have come in the form of finish, and five of those were by submission. Magomed Ankalaev via Rear-Naked Choke, round three.

Winner: Magomed Ankalaev | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Montana De La Rosa (+115) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (-145)

Rosa: DK: $7.8k | Bueno Silva: DK: $8.4k

It’s grappling or bust for Montana De La Rosa. She began her UFC career with three straight submission victories but struggled when she wasn’t able to get the fight to the mat. Striking is a problem for De La Rosa; even when she secures takedowns, she staunchly refuses to throw any strikes. She hunts for submissions with little to no ground and pound or peppering punches to soften her opponents. It’s basically a NAGA grappling match for Montana. Against Andrea Lee, Montana had Lee’s back for almost two full rounds and spent the entirety trying to secure a rear-naked choke to no avail.

Montana’s striking has improved over her last couple of fights, but she lacks the power to pose enough of a threat to open up takedown opportunities. Subsequently, she struggles to take the fight to the mat where she can implement her strength.

Mayra Bueno Silva fights like Wanderlei Silva, with the same rounded shoulder stalking style. Everything she throws is heavy, and she uses a good mix of kicks and punches. Like Wanderlei, she is very aggressive with constant forward pressure. But Bueno Silva is flatfooted and stiff and the definition of a one-punch striker.

This fight has the chance to turn into an exciting grappling contest if it goes to the ground. Bueno Silva, like De La Rosa, has excellent grappling and has an especially dangerous guard. She attacks with submissions from her back and strings them together like combinations on the feet. Unfortunately, when two excellent grapplers compete against each other, it usually results in a lackluster standup fight. That’s what I’m expecting here.

Both young ladies are proficient finishers, but both require taking the fight to the mat. Between the two, there is only one win by TKO/KO, and it belongs to Bueno Silva. When it comes to your Fantasy roster, I’d avoid these two. With a Fantasy gun to my head, I’d take Bueno Silva. There it is, Mayra Bueno Silva via decision.

Winner: Mayra Bueno Silva | Method: Decision

Pedro Munhoz (+125 ) vs Jimmie Rivera (-155)

Munhoz: DK: $7.9k | Rivera: DK: $8.3k

The judges, wearing hoodies and masks, robbed Pedro Munhoz at gunpoint in his last fight against Frankie Edgar. He did far more damage and was the only fighter to come close to finishing that fight. But that’s a mere bag of shells now; we’ve moved on.

In his previous fight from the Edgar bout, Munhoz lost a very close decision to the number one contender, Aljamain Sterling. Munhoz hurt Aljo in that fight several times with vicious leg kicks, front snap kicks to the body and heavy right hooks. Before the Aljo fight, Munhoz had Cody Garbrandt playing Twister in the middle of the Octagon after KO’ing him in the first round.

Munhoz has only lost to top tier fighters and has never been finished in his twenty-two fight career. He’s 8-5-1 in the UFC and has six finishes. He never stops throwing punches and kicks and is a Fantasy point stud. In four of his last five fights, he has averaged around one hundred twenty Fantasy points and landed one hundred five significant strikes against Aljo.

Jimmie Rivera got back on track after losing three of his previous four fights, dating back to 2018. In that year, Jimmie Rivera lost to Marlon Moraes, ending a twenty-fight, eight-year winning streak. Rivera is a wrestling striker with respectable power, but he shines on the mat, wrestling and imposing his physical dominance. His three career losses have come only to elite competition, Aljamain Sterling, Petr Yan (the current champ), and Marlon Moraes (before he fell off).

Rivera isn’t a finisher; he has one UFC finish (in his debut) and has seventeen career decision wins in twenty-three pro wins. He wins with one-punch power striking, securing takedowns, and racking up top control time. The problem for Rivera in this fight is Munhoz has world-class takedown defense. Pedro has only been taken down once in his last seven fights and stuffed all of Sterling and Edgar’s attempts.

Leg kicks will be the key for Pedro Munhoz. If Rivera doesn’t defend Munhoz’s never-ending leg kicks, it will be uphill trying to secure takedowns. Rivera can’t afford to stand for fifteen minutes with Pedro. Give me Pedro Munhoz via decision, and don’t pull a Jerry Jones; offer this man a contract.

Winner: Pedro Munhoz | Method: Decision

Angela Hill (-375 ) vs Ashley Yoder (+285)

Hill: DK: $9.2k | Yoda: DK: $7k

Judges have robbed no fighter in combat sports more than Angela Hill. Against Claudia Gadelha, Angela Hill was held up at gunpoint with Ryan Lochte in a Valero restroom. Four months later, lightning struck twice. After a GPS malfunction, Hill ended up at the same Valero and was shaken down once again by the same judges against Michelle Waterson. You can’t make this stuff up.

Angela’s modus operandi is taking short notice fights and fighting six to seven times per year. Once again, she’s stepping in against Ashley Yoder on short notice and looks to rebound after two straight losses that really weren’t losses.

Overkill Hill is just below the elite level in the strawweight division but is a tough-out for anyone. She has well-rounded skills standing and on the mat. Angela’s hands are long and fast, and she throws them by the baker’s dozen. Like her teammate, Dominick Cruz, Hill has excellent perpetual lateral movement and creates angles to initiate strikes.

Even if she lived in Houston right now, Ashley Yoder’s tan would be in mid-summer form. She may never hold a UFC title, but she’ll always have the best tan in MMA. Yoder’s a striker with decent grappling and mostly stays competitive by utilizing superior output. There’s a glaring lack of power in Yoder’s striking, but she stays busy, much like Yana Kunitskaya. It’s no different on the mat; she’s capable of scoring takedowns and stays busy with peppering strikes, strikes that add up on Fantasy scorecards.

In the majority of Ashley’s losses, she was held down and out-grappled/wrestled. She’s better from the top position than from the bottom, but she can force scrambles and has never been finished in fourteen pro fights. She also hasn’t finished a fight since Obama was President.

I think this is the perfect fight to get Angela Hill a dub. She’s better than Yoder in every category. If she can adjust her pace to finish the fight as emphatically as she starts it, she should avoid any judges perpetrating Robert De Niro in the movie Heat. Angela Hill has gone over one hundred significant strikes landed in a fight seven times in her UFC career, and averages nearly six per minute. Yoder lands just under three significant strikes per minute. You already know what it is; Angela Hill via decision.

Winner: Angela Hill | Method: Decision

Alex Caceres (-210 ) vs Kevin Croom (+170)

Caceres: DK: $8.8k | Croom: DK: $7.4k

Bruce Leeroy has been a UFC staple since competing on the Ultimate Fighter in 2011. He is 12-10-1 in the promotion, and he’s currently on a three-fight winning streak and is always wild and unpredictable. Bruce Bruce will throw every technique he’s ever learned at any given moment and will never stop moving. He’s long, and at times uses his distance well. Other times, he gets into firefights in the pocket with no head movement or any deviation from the centerline. His footwork, lateral movement, and unpredictability are what he relies on most. Caceres is as much of a gatekeeper as there’s ever been in the UFC; his all-or-nothing style ensures entertaining fights and stiff tests for promising prospects like he once was.

Kevin Croom, will likely look to turn this fight into a grappling match. Sixteen of his twenty-one professional wins have come via stoppage, ten of those via submission. Croom made his debut last September. It was a thirty-second modified guillotine choke submission win over the tough Roosevelt Roberts. Croom was later mugged by the Nevada State Athletic Commission, and the win was ruled a no-contest because Croom indulged in one of grandma’s special brownies the day before the fight.

Croom’s standup isn’t dangerous and consists mostly of repetitive left-right, left-right combinations with the sole purpose of closing the distance and initiating takedowns. Like De La Rosa vs. Bueno Silva, this matchup has the potential to feature entertaining grappling exchanges and submission attempts. And if it stays standing, it will feature plenty of haymakers thrown from left field.

Kevin Croom is probably a better Fantasy option because he’s more of a finisher than Bruce Leeroy. But make no mistake; this will be a tepidly anticipated clash of MMA super veterans, avoidable no longer and vitally necessary to ensure the continued existence of MMA purgatory. Caceres began his pro career in 2008, and Croom in 2009. One gatekeeper shall rule them all. Alex Caceres, decision. Wax, put it on.

Winner: Bruce Leeroy | Method: Decision

Prelims

Highlighted Matchups

William Knight (-115) vs. Alonzo Menifield (-115)

Knight: DK: $8.2k | Menifield: DK: $8k  

*Fight OF The Night*

 Banger. Somebody’s joining Nate Robinson and Curtis Blaydes as a new inductee in the narcoleptic hall of fame. Or, it’ll be a boring clinch fest against the cage. Both like to use wrestling-heavy game plans, but both also have heavy hands and light switch knockout power. William Knight is 9-1 with eight KO’s, and Menifield is 9-2 with eight KO’s and one submission, a one hundred percent finishing rate. The odds for a standup finish are very high.

These are two near-identical styles and skillsets and will be like playing Mortal Kombat using Scorpion against Scorpion. William Night will be wearing the yellow sash and Menifield the orange one. Flip a coin, and put one of these guys on your roster. William Knight via TKO, round two.

Winner: William Knight | Method: TKO Rd.2

Dustin Jacoby (-185 ) vs. Maxim Grishin (+150 )

Jacoby: DK: $8.5k | Grishin: DK: $7.7k

Dustin Jacoby has Original Recipe extra crispy striking and is a former Glory Kickboxing heavyweight champion. Jacoby is in his second stint in the UFC and also previously fought in Bellator. You don’t become a Glory Champion without world-class striking, and Jacoby definitely has it. Everything is in play for Jacoby, knees, elbows, kicks, and punches in combination. He carries his hands low but manages distance well, staying just outside of his opponent’s reach. In the clinch, he beats you up with dirty boxing and filthy elbows.

Grishin is all power and will be at a speed and technical disadvantage against Jacoby. But Grishin has heavy round kicks and a right hand that can end the fight early. His major malfunction is he has a low output and tends to Tyron Woodley himself—backs himself up against the cage like it’s his safe space, only throwing an occasional right hand because he feels shamed into doing it.

This matchup is savvy technique versus verse raw power, high aggressive output versus low, judicious output. For Grishin to win, he has to test Jacoby’s MMA skills, not just his kickboxing skills, aka Jacoby’s wrestling and clinch game. Grishin has to make this ugly by grinding Jacoby against the cage and on the mat. Space will be Grishin’s enemy; he needs to close the distance, cut off the cage and stay in Jacoby’s chest.

Jacoby will need to stay off the cage and dominate the center with volume from outside the pocket; make Grishin defend strikes, lots of them. Oh, and leg kicks; Jacoby has nasty leg kicks and won his second debut in October by leg kick TKO. This fight is currently scheduled to open the card, and I don’t recommend you miss it. I think both fighters have a moderate chance at scoring a finish and will be good options as middle-tier roster cap hits. Dustin Jacoby via TKO, round three.

Winner: Dustin Jacoby | Method: TKO Rd.3

Standout Fighter

Ramazan Kurmagomedov ( ) DK: TBD

I’ve never seen Rmazan fight, but look at the name. Think about it, K comes before N in the alphabet, so Kurmagomedov has to be better than Nurmagomedov. This guy is 8-0 with four submission wins and will almost certainly implement a wrestling-heavy game plan. Ramazan’s opponent, Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira, has terrible takedown defense and was originally scheduled to face a striker in Randy Brown. This is a terrible fight for Oliveira to accept on four day’s notice.

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Twenty-Ten-Twen Sleeper

The judges did me a solid last weekend when they correctly scored the Kunitskaya vs. Vieira fight for Kunitskaya and showed that they valued damage over lay n pray control time. Another dub for my sleepers. This card features another competitive field of scraps, lots of evenly matched toss-ups, but my Jackson will go on Rozenstruik. He has one-punch KO power that can instantly erase a large deficit on the scorecards. At (+285), Yoder is an excellent bet. Angela Hill is a San Diego representative, and I don't bet against my own. But if I did, I'd definitely drop a little scratch on Yoder. She's scrappy and highly competitive and may be able to steal rounds.

Pick 'Em

Alexander Hernandez (-200 ) vs. Thaigo Moises (+160 )

Winner: Thiago Moises

 Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Alex Oliveira ( ) vs. Ramazan Kurmagomedov ( )

Winner: Ramazan Kurmagomedov

 Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Alexis Davis (+170 ) vs. Sabina Mazo (-210 )

Winner: Sabina Mazo

 Method: Decision

William Knight (-115) vs. Alonzo Menifield (-115)

    Winner: William Knight

 Method: TKO Rd.2

Vince Cachero (+130 ) vs. Ronnie Lawrence (-160 )

    Winner: Ronnie Lawrence

 Method: Decision

Dustin Jacoby (+115) vs. Maxim Grishin (-145)

    Winner: Dustin Jacoby

 Method: TKO Rd.3

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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