We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Well… I got catfished, homies. I didn’t recognize the card that showed up on Saturday night. I was sold a card with guaranteed KO’s and clashing style matchups. But the card that sat at the bar perusing the room anxiously, eyeing every person that walked through the door, clearly used filters on its profile pic.

As soon as the fights started, I began thinking of excuses to leave the table and find an exit. My most likely option, through the kitchen and out the receiving door. Several fighters lost their original opponents, some hours before the fights. I had no idea the OSP vs. Manifield fight was canceled until Pedro Munhoz walked out instead of Alonzo Menifield.

On rare occasions, you swallow your pride, resigned to meet a nickel, and a dime shows up, completely surpassing all expectations. The Frankie Edgar that showed up was the one I hoped I’d see but had doubts that I would. Edgar came out landing Killer Instinct fourteen-punch combos and looked every bit his former twenty-eight-year-old self. Although I thought Munhoz won the fight and was robbed on the decision, Frankie’s win opens the possibility of a future matchup with Dominick Cruz.

Underdogs, the last two weeks have provided massive upsets. Two weeks ago, Marlon Vera Shang Tsung’d Sean O'Malley. Last Saturday night, the last-minute replacement Trevin Jones (+425), came back in Rocky fashion to stun Timur Valiev. Then… then, the biggest upset in UFC history on paper, Shana Dobson, at one time an (+800) underdog, weathered an early storm and finished the (-1000) favorite Mariya Agapova.

This Saturday’s card features some heavy favorites, not quite (+425/+800), but still the potential for serious upsets. In the main event, we have a former title challenger, Anthony Smith, versus a young monster quickly climbing the ranks in the now wide-open Light Heavyweight division. Former Welterweight Champion Ruthless Robbie Lawler, one of my all-time favorite fighters, returns to face the scrappy Neil Magny in the co-main event. Also featured, a fight rescheduled from two weeks ago, Magomed Ankalaev vs. Ion Cutelaba. Someone is definitely earning that coveted Sleep Number sponsorship (spoiler, it’s Cutelaba).

Main Card

Anthony Smith (+215) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (-275)

Smith: DK: $7.5k, FD: $18 | Rakic: DK: $8.7k, FD: $23

Banger. Plain and simple. Bombs will be thrown, missiles will be launched, and someone will be sitting in a rocking chair reading Paddington Bear while one fighter catches some z’s. Anthony Smith is coming off a bad loss to Glover Teixeira. Bad as in, he got annihilated after having a dominant first round, and his corner was scrutinized for not throwing in the towel well before the ref stopped it in the fifth. It was so bad that in the middle of the third round, Glover apologized to Smith mid-ass whopping, saying the beating wasn't personal, just business.

Smith comes in with a huge edge in experience with a 33-15 record with thirty finishes. He hasn’t had a decision win since 2016, and on the other hand, he has been finished thirteen times in his career. Absorbing more strikes per minute than he delivers, Smith averages three significant strikes landed per minute while being hit by four and a half.

Pacing, Anthony Smith has issues. In his title fight against Jon Jones, Smith paced himself to the extent that he barely threw any punches the entire fight. Against Glover, it was the exact opposite; he came out aggressive with a cape on, super aggressive. He gassed after the first round and now sends Teixeira Hallmark cards on Father’s Day.

If Smith can find the “just right” bowl of porridge and maintain a consistent output throughout, he can win this fight. He has power in both hands and legs, which made him a legitimate threat to Bones Jones.

Aleksandar Rakic hurts people. He lost his first Pro fight and then reeled off twelve straight wins, before losing a close split decision in his last fight against Volkan Oezdemir in December of 2019. In that fight, Rakic fought most of the fight with the alien baby from Total Recall growing out of his shin after an Oezdemir calf kick. A couple months later, the Total Recall baby would make another appearance growing out of Joanna Jedrzejczyk’s forehead.

When Rakic can stay on the outside and throw bombs, it’s hard to beat him. He has heavy kicks to the legs, body, and head. He has an excellent single-leg takedown in his back pocket that he uses to mix things up. And if he gets top position, his ground and pound is devastating. He’s vulnerable when exchanging in the pocket, as he has long punches that he throws from his waist without moving his head off the centerline.

Rakic lands on average five significant strikes per minute while only absorbing less than two and a half. That’s mostly due to his aggression and not his defensive prowess. Anthony Smith has to hit Rakic with something heavy early to stop his forward momentum, or it’s going to be another long night for Smith. One that likely ends with reporters asking his cornermen why they didn’t throw in the towel again.

Fantasy wise, both fighters can put up solid numbers, but I like Rakic a little more than I do Smith. I think Rakic gets the third-round TKO in this one. There it is, on wax after much debate. Rakic, TKO round three. I just don’t trust Anthony Smith, and Rakic scares me. At (+215) I'd definitely drop a couple bucks on Smith, and at $7,500, he's a solid roster pick.

Winner: Aleksandar Rakic | Method: TKO Rd.3

Ruthless Robbie Lawler (+120) vs. Neil Magny (-250)

Ruthless: DK: $7.6k, FD: $14 | Magny: DK: $8.6k, FD: $18

I’ll disqualify myself early on this one; I’m a Robbie Lawler Stan. It pains me to say this, but Lawler has lost three in a row and four out of his last five with his last win coming against Cowboy Cerrone in 2017. However, I don’t consider his loss to Ben Askren a real loss. In that fight, Lawler handed out the most ass whoopin’ anyone has ever delivered inside of a minute in UFC history. After power bombing Askren and pounding on him like a home invader, Askren caught him in a bulldog choke that Lawler didn’t tap to, but Herb Dean thought he did.

Against Colby Covington, the DirecTV. Ruthless Robbie Lawler didn’t show up, his Cable T.V. imposter, Robbie Lawler, stepped into the cage that night. Robbie has heavy hands and kicks, and he tends to have the most trouble in fights when he doesn’t mix kicks into his attacks. He becomes one dimensional, only swinging wide hooks periodically. Robbie needs to cut off the cage and bully Magny with relentless forward pressure.

Neil Magny has recorded twenty-two fights in the UFC since his debut in 2013 and has a record of 16-6. His last four losses have come only to elite competition. There’s nothing flashy about Magny, he’s slightly above average in every category. He fights long and varies his attacks with kicks and punches. He is capable of securing takedowns and had four against Li Jingliang and six against Carlos Condit in 2017.

Colby Covington took Lawler down ten times in their fight, in no way does Magny have the equivalent of Covington’s wrestling chops, but takedowns should definitely be in the game plan. He’s going to have to jump into the life raft and weather a heavy storm (hopefully) early in the fight.

The stats are quite even, both fighters landing over three and a half significant strikes per minute, with Magny averaging twice as many takedowns (Lawler averages a tick above zero). I wasn’t impressed with Magny’s last performance against Anthony Rocco Martin, a fight in which he was outstruck and hurt late. He was able to stay busy enough to win a decision I thought he didn’t deserve.

I like both fighters to score respectable Fantasy numbers in this one, as I think it goes the distance. Magny has only been KO’d/TKO’d twice in his career, and Magny doesn’t have the power to hurt Robbie. I’m gambling on Ruthless Robbie (isn't that what this is all about) showing up and throwing bombs in spurts. Robbie Lawler, decision. Even though I think this fight goes the distance, Lawler's ability to finish any fight makes him a steal at $7,600.

Winner: Robbie Lawler | Method: Decision

Ricardo Lamas (-300) vs. Ryan Hall Bill Algeo (Who?) (+230)

Lamas: DK: $9.2k, FD: TBD | Algeo: DK: $7k, FD: TBD

Ricardo Lamas was originally scheduled to fight the Iminari-rolling, heel hooking Ryan Hall, and it would have made for a wild style matchup. Bill Algeo is now stepping in on short notice and will be making his UFC debut. This is the equivalent of a pitcher throwing a get-it-over-the-plate fastball after walking two straight batters. Lamas has lost three out of his last four fights, most recently by TKO to top contender Kalvin Kattar a year ago, and needs a dub.

Lamas mixes technical striking with excellent takedowns and ground and pound. He remained a consistent top-five Featherweight for most of his career. I didn’t like the Ryan Hall matchup at all for him, there was a good reason why nobody wanted to sign up to fight Hall. This new matchup against Algeo is all but a gimme.

Algeo is making his UFC debut on short notice after losing his fight on the Contender Series and fighting outside of the promotion in his most recent fight. He has a fun, wild, careless style and likes to throw an array of kicks. He lacks power in his strikes and throws a lot of half-speed techniques just to stay busy. As the fight wanes, he begins to throw noodle-arm punches like the blow-up wavy arm men in front of car washes.

The old Ricardo Lamas would dominate this fight, and Algeo would go back to wearing a paper hat at In-N-Out afterward. The danger for Lamas is that Algeo has absolutely nothing to lose, and Lamas has everything to lose. Lamas is desperate for a win and can ill afford to lose to a fighter making his debut on short notice. Lamas is the second-highest cap hit at $9,200 and is a surer pick than Sean Brady, who is above him. Lamas has to come out and Wayne Brady Algeo; bully him and take his ham sammich. Lamas, TKO round two.

Winner: Ricardo Lamas | Method: TKO Rd.2

Alexa Grasso (-325) vs. Ji Yeon Kim (+250)

Grasso: DK: $9.1k, FD: $18 | Kim: DK: $7.1k, FD: $11

This is a slick standup match right here. This is going to be a high level, technical striking from the opening bell. Both ladies never stop striking and attempt zero takedowns. Kim averages four and a half strikes landed per minute, while Grasso lands at almost five and a half. Neither fighter is a big-time knockout artist but is very capable of overwhelming their opponents with their output.

Kim is fearless and isn’t afraid to get in the pocket and mix it up. She throws smooth combinations with subtle counters defensively. She tends to get caught with her head straight in the air when she exchanges and has slow hand speed, especially compared to Grasso. Kim is one-dimensional and does not mix any kicks into her attacks. To her credit, she went the distance against Valentina Shevchenko’s sister, Antonina, in a very competitive fight.

Speed kills, and it’s a cliché for a reason. Grasso has hand speed, manages distance well, throws combinations, and has excellent lateral movement. Grasso is also a kicker who hides them well behind her punches. Her clinch game is strong and uses both knees and elbows. The opposite of Kim, Grasso remains defensively responsible and never gets caught with her hands down.

Grasso has only lost to elite grapplers/wrestlers, Carla Esparza, Tatiana Suarez, and Felice Herrig. This fight has no chance of going to the ground, so she has little to worry about in that department. Grasso will be a Fantasy cap hit of $9,100 and likely to land close to one hundred significant strikes. I don’t think she gets a finish here, though.

At $7,100 I think Kim is a solid pick up when you’re in need of a low tier salary. She will land her fair share of punches. I’m going with the better fighter, Grasso. Grasso, decision.

Winner: Alexa Grasso | Method: Decision

Magomed Ankalaev (-325) vs. Ion Cutelaba (+250)

Ankalaev: DK: $9k, FD: $19 | Cutelaba: DK: $7.2k, FD: $12

I’ll cut to the chase, put it on wax, Magomed Ankalaev TKO round two. It’ll be the second time he finished Cutelaba this year. Cutelaba can take his ass to Seattle and do all the protesting he wants; he was done when the Ref waved off the first fight back in February of this year. Magomed kicked him in the head multiple times, and placed hands wrapped tightly into closed fists all about his face. He had Cutelaba looking like he was seeing his grandmother’s apparition standing in the doorway; he was done.

Magomed is the Light Heavyweight, standup version of Khamzat Chimaev, and as you are starting to see, anyone whose name ends in “aev” is a monster. His only loss came with five seconds left in a fight he completely dominated but got caught in a Paul Craig triangle choke. Craig will be telling stories at the family reunion for years to come about the time he beat this guy.

Ankalaev is an excellent striker who sets up the power punches he wants to land by hiding them behind other strikes. He can get takedowns, and when on top, he throws bombs like Chimaev and Khabib. He’s finished six of his last eight fights.

Ion Cutelaba drives a Toyota Frontrunner with the top down until the second round. Then he runs out of gas and has to hitchhike the rest of the way. If you can withstand Cutelaba’s first-round storm, you can bully him with constant pressure until he breaks. In his fight against Glover, he was dominating, before getting taken down and choked into submission in the second.

Magomed can win this fight standing (again) or take less risk and take Cutelaba down and grind him out until he finds an opening for the finish. Ion is very dangerous and has the power to ruin anyone’s day, so I expect Magomed to take the path of least resistance. Magomed will test the standup only long enough to get Ion down to the mat. I’m not going to bother checking how much of a cap hit Magomed is, take him. I lied; he’ll cost $9,000.

Cutelaba is expected to be KO’d again early by the crab people who set the cap prices, as he is just above Vera at $7,200. He’s going to come out swinging heavy and could definitely catch Akalaev, so he could be a guy that swings rosters if he can land.

Winner: Magomed Ankalaev | Method: TKO Rd.2

Prelims

Maki Pitolo (+105) vs. Impa Kasanganay (-135)

Pitolo: DK: $7.7k, FD: $16 | Kasanganay: DK: $8.5k, FD: $17

Two weeks ago, Pitolo lost via guillotine choke to Darren Stewart. It was one of the few picks that were correct for me on that card. Pitolo is in desperation mode coming into this one having lost two of his first three fights in the UFC, after graduating from the Contender Series. Coconut Bombs has power in both hands with the ability to secure takedowns, averaging almost two and a half per fight.

Kasanganay started training for MMA only two years ago and fought six times within the first year of going Pro. His abilities are very raw, and he’s far from a finished product. Right now, he’s okay at everything and not great at anything. He too averages two and a half takedowns per fight and is the busier fighter at five and a half strikes landed per minute. That number is a little misleading if you watch him fight, though. He’s a one-punch striker, whereas Pitolo throws punches in bunches.

Impa fought twice on the Contender Series and earned two decision wins and is 7-0 as a professional. As a rule, I defer to experience and level of competition when faced with a toss-up fight like this one. I think Pitolo is fighting for his roster spot and will come out aggressive, and I’m taking him to win a decision. I also like him at $7,700 with a better chance to get a finish. I have no idea what you’ll get from Impa at $8,500. But with a lot of people possibly shying away from the unfamiliar name, he could be a better option than Magny, who’s in the same ballpark. Pitolo, decision.

Winner: Pitolo | Method: Decision

Mallory Martin (-335) vs. Hannah Cifers (+255)

Martin: DK: $8.9k, FD: $18 | Cifers: DK: $7.3k, FD: $12

Mallory Martin is the better fighter here, but Cifers has shared the cage with elite competition. Cifers has lost three in a row, two by submission and one by TKO. Her management must not like her much, as she faced very stiff competition in Angela Hill, Mackenzie Dern, and last week’s (-1000) favorite Mariya Agapova. She also has a loss to Maycee Barber, who is considered a real contender at strawweight.

Cifers has very stiff, elbows-out striking. She has no jab, and as a result, can’t close the distance against taller, longer strikers, which is ninety percent of the division. Scrappy and persistent, Cifers never quits and tries to win even though she has to know she won’t.

Mallory Martin is one of the heavy favorites currently at (-350), and she’s clearly the more polished, traditional striker. She has decent takedowns, but heavy ground and pound when she does end up on top. She’s fought in Invicta and the Contender Series, and lost her UFC debut in two rounds to the future champion, Virna Jandiroba. She showed a lot of heart in that short fight but was overwhelmed on the mat.

At $8,900, there are better options available than Martin. At $7,300, there isn’t much value in Cifers who scored five and a half and three and a half Fantasy points respectively in her last two fights. That being said, give me Cifers for the upset, no stutter. Cifers, decision.

Winner: Cifers | Method: Decision

Zak Cummings (-115 ) vs. Alession Di Chirico (-115 )

Cummings: DK: $8.4k, FD: $15 | Di Chirico: DK: $7.8k, FD: $17

This is a sleeper fight of the night candidate. Di Cirico is 3-3 in the UFC but could easily be 5-1. He lost a close decision that I thought he actually won to Kevin Holland, who has been on a tear lately. He reminds me of a less aggressive Italian Shogun Rua in the way he strikes. He’s in every fight until the end and throws bombs that can end a fight at any moment. He’s lost two in a row but was coming on strong at the end of both of those fights. He’s grimey.

Unlike his Doppelgänger, Brent Hatley, Cummings isn’t a carefree, wild swinger. He is a savvy Vet with deceptively, slick striking, and smooth combinations. He has a very good ground/submission game, but he’s usually not the reason why the fight goes to the mat. He holds his head precariously high in the air and has a knack for landing his left hand late in fights.

Both fighters will be in this until the end, and I decided I’d take whoever the dog was in this fight. Currently, at (+120), I’ll take Di Chirico via decision. I like Cummings as a Fantasy pick at $8,400, though. He consistently averages seventy to eighty Fantasy points, topping out at over one hundred. At $7,800, I’d take Di Chirico over Viana and Whitmire, who are both above him. Di Chirico, decision.

Winner: Di Chirico | Method: Decision

Alex Bruce Leeroy Caceres (TBD) vs. Giga Chikadze Kevin Croom (TBD)

Bruce Leeroy: DK: $7.4k, FD: $13 | Croom: DK: $8k, FD: TBD

Originally scheduled to face former Glory Kickboxer, Giga Chikadze, in what would have been one of the most entertaining fights of the month, Alex Bruce Leeroy Caceres will now face late replacement Kevin Croom.

Bruce Leeroy has been a UFC staple since competing on the Ultimate Fighter in 2011. He’s on a two-fight winning streak and is always wild and unpredictable. He’ll throw every technique he’s ever learned at any given moment and will never stop moving. He’s long, and at times uses his distance well. He gets into trouble exchanging in the pocket and has no head movement. His footwork, lateral movement, and unpredictability are what he relies on most.

Former Bellator competitor, Kevin Croom will likely look like to take this fight to the mat. His standup isn’t dangerous, and honestly, neither is his ground game. From what I saw, Croom is fairly inactive from the top, and I'm not really sure what he's good at. His striking consists of repetitive right-left right-left combinations with little variation and probably won't look to stand with Caceres for long stretches.

This should be a dub for Caceres, and I’m assuming he’ll be a healthy favorite instead of the dog like he was when scheduled to fight Chikadze. As of writing this, Bruce Leeroy will count $7,400 against the cap, and I’d swoop him up. Croom… Nah. Give me Bruce Leeroy, second-round rear-naked choke.

Winner: Alex Caceres | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Emily Whitmire (-155) vs. Polyana Viana (+125)

Whitmire: DK: $8.2K, FD: $16 | Viana: DK: $8k, FD: $15

Whitmire will give you around fifty to sixty Fantasy points against Viana in a win. At $8,200 and $8,000 respectively, I’m staying away from both. This will be a nip-tuck below average standup fight. Viana is described as an excellent Jiu-Jitsu player, but she was inactive from her guard and never threatened with any submissions in the fights I watched. Her hands are terrible, it looks like she wears a neck brace into the cage; her head never moves.

Whitmire fights like the Notre Dame Fighting Irish mascot and looks like she’s shadowboxing. She looks surprised when she lands a punch and tends to shoeshine her combinations. She did well against the Jiu-Jitsu wizard, Amada Ribas until she didn’t and was tapped in the second round. If Viana wants to win this fight, she should get it to the ground. Whitmire, decision.

Winner: Emily Whitmire | Method: Decision

Sean Brady (-375 ) vs. Christian Genie In a Bottle Aguilera (+285 )

Brady: DK $9.3k, FD: $20 | Aguilera: DK: $6.9k, FD: $10

Sean Brady is another huge favorite, opening at (-400). Christian Aguilera is coming in at around (+310). I don’t think the gap is that large between the two. The difference is the standup, as both have good wrestling and can dominate from the top position. Aguilera has tighter, crisper boxing, and Brady has wider, more powerful hands.

Brady mixes kicks into his attack, especially leg kicks, and Aguilera isn’t much of a kicker at all. Brady is a promising undefeated prospect with a record of 12-0. In his UFC debut, he got out to a fast start against Court McGee in the first round, then faded and limped to the finish line. I actually scored the fight 29-28 for McGee, who I thought outworked Brady in rounds two and three.

Aguilera reminds me of the two-time Ultimate Fighter participant and one-time winner, and fellow Poway High School Alumni, Jesse Taylor. He has power in his hands and can win this fight if he pressures Aguilera and stays in his chest.

I think Brady has the best chance to get a finish and is a Fantasy point-scoring monster, averaging over one hundred Fantasy points in two UFC appearances. He’s the highest cap hit at $9,300. At $6,900, I like Aguilera over any of the other bottom feeders in that price tier. I’m taking Aguilera to wear down Brady and make this an ugly fight. Give me the upset, Aguilera, decision. Don't miss this fight.

Winner: Christian Aguilera | Method: Decision

P.S. I was just joking about taking Hannah Ciphers over Mallory Martin. Give me Martin via decision. I just wanted to see who made it to the end. Peace.

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

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