We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Main Card

Anthony Smith (-145 ) vs. Devin Clark (+115)

Smith: DK: $8.5k, FD: $16 | Clark: DK: $7.7k, FD: $15

The original co-main event was set as Renato Moicano vs. Rafael Fiziev and was a guaranteed banger, but Covid snatched the fight from us like Ceedee Lamb snatched the TD catch of the year last Sunday against the Vikings.  

This is a crossroads fight for Anthony Smith. His most recent win was a split decision against a home invader back in April. Since then, he’s lost his last two fights, but this fight will mark his return to the middleweight division, his more natural weight class. Nope, never mind; he’s not returning to the middleweight division. But he should be. It’s hard to remove the images from my mind of Glover Teixeira back in May apologizing to Smith mid-ass whopping, saying the beating wasn't personal, just business.

Two months later he got ran over by Aleksander Rakic, and Smith just hasn’t shown any heart lately when facing adversity. He’ll come into this fight with a huge edge in experience with a 33-16 record with thirty finishes. He hasn’t had a decision win since 2016, and on the other hand, he has been finished fourteen times in his career. Absorbing more strikes per minute than he delivers, Smith averages three significant strikes landed per minute while being hit by four and a half.

Devin Clark is a tough, elbows-on-the-table, hungry fighter who has been improving steadily throughout his four-year UFC career. He’s 7-3 since making his debut in 2016 and coming off a gutsy win against the monster Alonzo Menifield. He faced serious hardship early in that fight, almost getting waved off in the opening round, but persevered and took over the fight with superior cardio, aggressive power strikes, and grinding Menifield against the cage.

Clark will look to drag Smith to the ground and averages three takedowns a fight, which is bad news for Smith, who has a fifty percent takedown defense and has been utterly destroyed on the ground in his last two fights. If you sign Smith to a Fantasy contract on Saturday, you’re gambling on the old Anthony Smith showing up and scoring an early stoppage. I hope that’s the case, but I’m taking Devin Clark to score takedowns and control long stretches with top control. Devin Clark via decision, on wax.

Winner: Devin Clark | Method: Decision

Josh Parisian (-205 ) vs Parker Porter (+165)

Parisian: DK: $9k, FD: $22 | Porter: DK:$7.2k, FD: $8

Parker Porter and Josh Parisian look like they’ve made their way to the UFC by way of the Love’s Truck Stop fighting circuit. They are funhouse mirror images of each other, two slow power punchers that plod forward and display a few high-level techniques.  

Parisian is a galoot with a knack for getting his ass cracked and somehow finding a way to win the fight like Homer boxing Boxcar Joe’s and Willie’s. He’s 13-3 with ten TKO/KO’s and is riding a six-fight winning streak, all ending in the first round. Parisian will be making his debut after competing on the Contender Series in August and winning by KO.

Parker Porter made his debut in August and was the first victim of my nemesis, Chris Daukaus. Porter is 9-6 with eight stoppages, and Jon Jones and Gabriel Gonzaga are a couple of names in his L column. His hand speed is economy mail, and his footwork is heavy and bidirectional, forward and backward.

Somehow both fighters have an average of seven significant strikes landed per minute, but don’t let that fool you; this fight will be like two minivans drag racing at forty-five mph in the fast lanes. Good news/bad news: The good news is, someone will score a finish and prove to be a valuable sixth man on your fantasy roster. The bad news is, I don’t know who that will be. Porter burned me back in August when I picked him to beat Daukaus, and I hold grudges like I hold my breath underwater. Josh Parisian via TKO, round two.

Winner: Josh Parisian | Method: TKO Rd.2

Miguel Baeza (-160) vs. Takashi Sato (+130)

Baeza: DK: $8.7k, FD: $20 | Sato: DK: $7.5k, FD: $10

This is an interesting fight.  Miguel Baeza is a highly touted prospect with explosive technical striking.  He’s a leg kicker with a leg kick TKO win on his record and a big win against the Immortal Matt Brown in his last fight.  Adversity engaged him in a staring contest in the first round and flinched first; Baeza survived nearly being KO’d by Brown early and came back to stop Brown in the second round.  His style is very reminiscent of Charles Oliveira and Thomas Almeida, a very upright stance with straight, tight punches.

Baeza’s striking isn’t without flaws; he lacks head movement and has Nintendo directional pad movement, no diagonals, no angles.  Defensively, he cracks under pressure and moves straight back, and relies on vacating the pocket completely to avoid strikes, leaving few opportunities to counter.

Takashi Sato is a long, rangy striker with sneaky power in his left hand.  His last fight in June was a forty-eight second TKO of Jason Witt.  Sato is 2-1 in the UFC and also holds a TKO win in his debut against Tenth Planet Jiu-Jitsu black belt, Ben Saunders.  Overall, he’s 16-3 with thirteen finishes, but despite the gaudy numbers, he has major flaws in his game.  

A southpaw, Sato has a lot of trouble defending strikes over his lead shoulder and lacks head movement, just like Baeza.  He is a one-punch, judicious striker who struggles with maintaining a steady output.  You don’t have to play for the Astros to steal his signs; he is highly predictable, telegraphing his left hand often and without setup.

Tough fight to call.  Without a finish, both fighters are likely to be Fantasy busts.  In his only three-round fight, Sato didn’t crack thirty significant strikes landed, and Baeza averages around forty.  I’ll take my chances with the slight favorite, Miguel Baeza.  Sato is a good underdog look; if he comes out aggressive and adjusts his pace, he can land that left hand and make it an early night.  On wax, Miguel Baeza via decision.

Winner: Miguel Baeza | Method: Decision

Spike Carlyle (-175 ) vs Bill Algeo (+145)

Carlyle: DK: $8.9k, FD: $19 | Algeo: DK: $7.3k, FD: $10

*Fight of the Night*

 Spike Carlyle takes meteor showers, he walks on lava in ankle socks, his thread count is Kevlar; he’s wild, he howls at the moon. One of my favorite rappers is a guy named Rittz, like crackers. Google him real quick; he’s a ginger with an Afro, and Spike Carlyle is his MMA doppelgänger. Better yet, he’s the ginger version of Clay Guida if Clay hung out with Walter White and developed a habit.  

This guy, Spike Carlyle, is going to run across the cage as soon as the first bell sounds, and he’s going to launch himself at Bill Algeo. He’s going to initiate some explosive scrambles and submission attempts; he’s going to have Algeo in some bad positions, and he’s going to end up in some bad positions himself. Carlyle will never stop moving forward and will throw some heavy, wide punches to initiate power doubles when his opponent begins to retreat.

Bill Algeo made an impressive debut on short notice back in August against the super veteran, Ricardo Lamas. Algeo had Lamas in all kinds of trouble in the second round, and the fight was 1-1 heading into the third round. Lamas was able to score a takedown in the third and dominate from the top after Algeo completely gassed. Still, Algeo showed he’s an unpredictable, fearless striker who will take risks throughout the fight.

Algeo has a fun, wild, careless style and likes to throw an array of kicks. He lacks power in his strikes and throws a lot of half-speed techniques just to stay busy. As the fight wanes, he begins to throw noodle-arm punches like the blow-up wavy arm men in front of car washes. His cardio, or lack of, will be a big disadvantage in this fight given Carlyle’s heavy pressure style.

Fantasy rosters: you can’t go wrong with either fighter. Algeo scored one hundred forty-seven significant strikes in his Contender Series bout and ninety in his debut against Lamas. Carlyle’s output is much lower, below forty per minute, but he supplements with takedowns and position advances. Algeo is worth the gamble because he’s likely to score big even in defeat, and Carlyle's crazy style will lead to respectable stats as well. Both fighters are hard to finish, and I was prepared to pick Carlyle to win, but I have a weird feeling Algeo will find a way to pull it off. Bill Algeo via decision.

Winner: Bill Algeo | Method: Decision

Prelims

Fights/Fighters to Keep an Eye on

Anderson Dos Santos (+135 ) vs. Martin Day (-165)

Dos Santos: DK: $7.4k, FD: $9 | Day: DK: $8.8k, FD: $19  

 The name Anderson Dos Santos in Brazil is the equivalent in the U.S. of naming your child Jones Smith. Dos Santos is a pressure fighter who isn’t afraid to engage in a firefight and has the ground game to be able to abandon his troops if he starts taking heavy casualties. He’s an eye for an eye striker who will take one to give one and makes up for technical shortcomings with aggression. Dos Santos reminds me of a part-time seasonal Kenny Florian for all my non-casuals out there.  

Another specialty of Dos Santos is, getting punched in the face, and no matter how many punches he eats, he’s never satiated. Zero point zero head movement. Against Andre Ewell in his last fight, Dos Santos found late success with takedowns after struggling to finish his attempts in rounds one and two. He needs to commit to finishing his attempts against Martin Day.

A sneaky good striker, Martin Day is another fighter who has an excellent command of the pocket but from the inside out. Day doesn’t abandon the pocket when facing pressure; instead, he uses subtle back steps and anticipates his opponent’s first movement with slips and counters. This can backfire on Day as well; he tends to hang out in the kill zone for too long and takes heavy damage. He was laid out like a crime scene chalk outline in his last fight, which I’m sure, has now become the logo for some ID Network crime series.

Both fighters are desperate for a win, and desperation makes for fun fights. With 0-2 records for both Day and Dos Santos within the UFC, the loser is likely to receive an eSignature request on their walking papers. This is a toss up, but I think Martin Day can stay on his feet and control the standup exchanges; Dos Santos is too inconsistent in all areas. Martin Day via decision.

Winner: Martin Day | Method: Decision

Su Mudaerji (-335) DK: $9.1k | FD: $21

Su Mudaerji is one of the fighters I’m most looking forward to seeing on Saturday, probably second only to Spike Carlyle.  Su is a polished striker who will pose serious problems at bantamweight if he can develop his ground game.  Striking wise, Su is a master manipulator; the focus of his manipulation is the pocket, and he has a great feel for it. He stays outside of his opponent’s range with long punches and long-range kicks, like crescent and sidekicks.  Mudaerji keeps opponents at the end of his punches, and he expeditiously chooses openings judiciously.  His punches travel from point A to point B in a straight line with no deviations along the way.

In Malcolm Gordon, Su’s major malfunction will be tested, grappling.  Gordon is coming off a first-round submission loss in his debut but has plenty of skills to make a name for himself in the UFC. Malcolm will look to get the fight to the ground quickly but will have to find a way inside of Su’s long strikes. 

Mudaerji is a big favorite at (-335), and with a gaping hole in his ground game and facing an excellent grappler, he’s a bit of a gamble, but I think Gordon will have trouble closing the distance.  Su scored over ninety significant strikes in his last fight, and I expect him to be able to post similar numbers here.

Rachael Ostovich (+110) DK: $7.6k | FD: $11

 I never miss a Rachael O fight.  That is all. 

Sleeper

Kai Kamaka (-325) DK: $9.2k | FD: $21

Kai Kamaka is stepping in as a late replacement for Sean Woodson against Jonathan Pearce.  Kamaka is 8-2 and is allergic to finishing fights, with seven wins coming by way of decision.  That’s why he’s a sleeper here; he will end an eight-fight decision streak with a Rear-naked Choke finish of Jonathan Pearce.  Pearce is coming off a loss to Joe Lauzon last year, and Pearce might have the worst defensive striking I’ve ever seen.  It’s like he wears a neck brace in the cage, making it impossible for him to move his head.  Kamaka has tight, technical boxing, which will open up opportunities for him to take Pearce down and grab hold of his neck.

Pick "Em

Ashlee Evans-Smith (-140) vs. Norma Dumont Viana (+110)

          Winner: Norma Dumont

 Method: Rear-naked Choke Rd.3

Martin Day (-165) vs. Anderson Dos Santos (+135)

            Winner: Martin Day

 Method: Decision

Gina Mazany(-185) vs. Rachael Ostovich (+150)

            Winner: Us (Rachael Ostovich)

            Method: Decision

Jonathan Pearce (+245) vs. Kai Kamaka (-315)

            Winner: Kai Kamaka

 Method: Rear-naked Choke Rd.2

Su Mudaerji (-335) vs. Malcolm Gordon (+255)

            Winner: Su Mudaerji

 Method: Decision

Luke Sanders (-155) vs. Joseph Maness (+125)

            Winner: Luke Sanders

 Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves. 

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy. 

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning

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