We're Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast and practitioner, Chris Guy. More about me at the end of this newsletter.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko

Angela Hill is the Dallas Cowboys of MMA. She has had more wins stolen from her by bad judging than any other fighter in the sport. Similar to how the Dallas Cowboys have had more wins stolen from them in the last ten years by incompetent officiating than any other team in the sport. That wasn't offensive pass interference by Michael Gallup, and the DBoys should be 1-0. And Angela Hill should be on a five-fight winning streak after being robbed against Claudia Gadelha and Michelle Waterson.

If there's anything we can take away from last week's fights, it's that at least the Eagles lost too. With fifteen fights scheduled for Saturday Night, there's no time for gum bumping, so let's get into it.

Main Card

Tyron Woodley (+265) vs. Colby Covington (-350)

Woodley: DK: $6.9k, FD: $17 | Covington: DK: $9.3k, FD: $23

There are only two things I love watching more than my 1990's Dallas Cowboys VHS box set. One, watching Luke Rockhold’s cornermen run into the Octagon to remove his shoes so no one will draw inappropriate male anatomy on his face while he’s asleep, and two, watching Colby Covington eat three square meals through a paper straw, like after his last fight against Kamaru Usman. Unfortunately, Rockhold may be retired, and you'll need thermal underoos in hell before Colby Covington loses to Tyron Woodley this weekend.

The worst thing that can happen to a wrestler in MMA is for them to win a fight by knock out. From that point on, they usually abandon what got them to the dance; chivalry goes straight out the window. In Woodley’s case, it’s his wrestling. He’s a wrestler, and he has only two takedowns in his last ten fights.

Woodley’s right hand has been a gift and a curse; it giveth and taketh away. After he KO’d Josh Koscheck in 2013, Woodley fell in love with his right hand, failing to develop his striking any further and almost entirely abandoned his wrestling. He had one takedown in each of his fights against Wonderboy Thompson, and both times he almost slept Wonderboy on the ground immediately upon getting him there.

Woodley and his Roufusport teammate, Anthony Pettis, display the same bad habit inside the cage. For Pettis, it led to the beginning of the end of his run as a title contender. Against Gilbert Melendez, Pettis inexplicably began backing himself into the cage and only engaging once his back was up against it. In that fight, it served him well. His next fight was against Rafael Dos Anjos, and he got smashed for five rounds. Since then, Pettis has continued to use that same tactic. He backed himself into the cage against Nate Diaz and played right into Diaz’s game plan.

Woodley has gotten away with utilizing that tactic for several years, and it has finally caught up to him. I don’t know if it’s a tactic that head coach Duke Roufus teaches, or if it is just a habit picked up by two fighters who train together. The whole game plan has become back up into the cage and throw a right hand once every minute/minute and a half. In his last two fights, he hasn’t landed more than thirty-four strikes, and both of those were five-rounds. Woodley averages two significant strikes a minute and just over one takedown for his career. It’s right hand or bust for him, and it salvaged a Hail Mary draw in the first Wonderboy fight, and eeked out a suspicious victory in their second fight.

It took me a while to accept it, but Colby Covington is a damn good fighter. Except for his last fight against Usman, Colby hasn’t abandoned his wrestling. He had ten takedowns against Robbie Lawler, and seven against Rafael Dos Anjos. Usman and Covington acknowledged a wrestling stalemate between the two and resigned to stand for all five rounds. In that fight, Colby landed close to one hundred fifty significant strikes and had Usman hurt multiple times. Colby also absorbed one hundred and seventy-five strikes but fought from the third round on with a broken jaw.

He’s a different level, a different breed; he’s a Doberman/Pit mix with a Chihuahua’s yip yapping. Colby’s hands have gotten better every fight. He’s able to get away with some holes in his standup because he throws combinations and has the cardio to push a relentless pace. Colby can use the game plan Usman used against Woodley, pressure him with combinations, and mix in takedowns and break his will.

I’m almost willing to bet Woodley’s management tried to talk him out of taking/asking for this fight. He was outstruck eighty-three to twenty-eight in his last fight against Gilbert Burns back in May, and Colby pushes a far more taxing pace than Burns does and is better in every area. Colby will score takedowns and significant strikes by the dozen, standing and from the top position. Colby is a Fantasy must, and I don’t see Woodley putting up much resistance in return, barring a complete change in style and mental approach.

I’m going with Colby Covington via TKO, round four. At (+265), Woodley might be worth dropping a couple bucks on, though. If he decides to throw his right hand while Covington is over pursuing... And at a bargain clearance price of $6,900, the long shot could be worth it.

Winner: Colby Covington | Method: TKO Rd.4

Donald Cerrone (+125) vs. Niko Price (-155)

Cerrone: DK: $7.7k, FD: $15 | Price: DK: $8.5k, FD: $17

There’s nothing I can tell you about Donald Cerrone that even a casual fan of the sport doesn’t already know. He’s a double O-G and the Dan Marino/Charles Barkley of the sport, an all-time great fighter who never won the title. He could have navigated his way to multiple title shots over the years by handpicking opponents and turning down unfavorable matchups. But then he wouldn’t have been Cowboy. Unlike a lot of actual titleholders, Cerrone fights any and all challengers.

It hurts to say, it’s like Jordan on the Wizards, but he’s not the same dude. There’s very little of the old Cowboy left. He’s always been a notoriously slow starter, but now he’s also begun to show diminished skills. His reactions have slowed in tandem with his hand speed, and he clearly can’t take the same punishment that he used to. Cerrone is currently on a four-fight losing streak, but his last win was also just a year ago, against Al Iaquinta. This will be his fifth fight in little over a year and likely to be his fifth loss in the same span. Niko Price is wild; he howls at the moon. He might be legitimately crazy, and he’s also a very good fighter. He’s an unorthodox, herky-jerky type of striker with deceptive power and distance management. He’s very aggressive and never stops moving forward with peppering punches and kicks. Price has two of the most unlikely KO’s I’ve seen. He KO’d the very tough, Randy Brown, with hammer fists from his back, and two fights ago, KO’d James Vick with an up kick.

Both fighters have almost identical stats, averaging just over four significant strikes per minute and one takedown. Price is also coming off a loss, a very close fight against Vicente Luque that was coming down to the wire before a bad cut over Price’s eye stopped the fight. Niko is a fast starter and will come out looking to do what McGregor did to Cerrone this past January. Both fighters take a lot of damage, and I don’t think Cerrone has ever slipped a punch in his career.

I like Price to score some good significant strikes and have a better chance to get a finish. I have no idea what we’ll see from Cerrone, and I see a repeat of Robbie Lawler’s latest performance. Give me Niko Price via decision.

Winner: Price | Method: Decision

Khamzat Chimaev (-400 ) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+300 )

Chimaev: DK: $9.4k, FD: $21 | Meerschaert: DK: $6.8k, FD: $8

Khamzat Chimaev. Put him on your roster. He’s a bigger Khabib and is simultaneously fighting in the welterweight and middleweight divisions. Simultaneously as in, his next fight is already scheduled against Demian Maia at welterweight in a couple of weeks. That shows you what Dana White thinks of this matchup against Meerschaert.

Chimaev made his debut and fought twice this past June and had two vicious finishes. He’s 8-0, all by finish. Meerschaert is an Ed Herman type of fighter, but he’s not going to pull off a miracle like Herman did last weekend. I think Meerschaert has enough experience and grappling to survive into the third round, but that’s about it.

Khamzat is the future two-division champion. He could beat Usman tomorrow and could take down Stylebender or Paulo Costa at will. Give me Khamzat via TKO, round three.

Winner: Chimaev | Method: TKO Rd.3

Johnny Walker (-130) vs. Ryan Spann (+100)

Walker: DK: $8.3k, FD: $18 | Spann: DK: $7.9k, FD: $16

This is a toss-up. Opening odds have Walker as the (-138) favorite and Spann at (+105). Walker is a highlight reel KO artist who struggles in a traditional kickboxing match in which he can’t rely on flashy techniques.

Spann is the opposite; he’s a technically sound striker with good fundamentals and big power. He uses my favorite and most effective combination, the double jab followed by a right hand. He can score takedowns but relies more on brute strength rather than technique. He scrambles well from the bottom and has an average ground game.

First-round finishes are a specialty for Spann, and he’s finished fifteen of his eighteen professional victories with eleven submissions. Ryan Spann is coming off a win against Sam Alvey, but if there had been ten seconds left in that fight, he likely would have been TKO’d.

Like Spann, Johnny Walker is allergic to second rounds. Walker is best when given distance and able to throw wild spinning and flying attacks. He doesn’t do well when he’s faced with forward pressure or when he has to fight off takedowns. Yep, he’s sitting shotty with the Clippers in a Toyota Frontrunner. A traditional kickboxing match doesn’t suit Walker; he needs chaos, much like Michel Peirera does, who we saw fight two weeks ago.

Walker averages slightly more significant strikes per minute, and both average fight times are little over one round. I think Johnny has a better chance to secure a finish in this one, and I feel like I’m going out on a limb with the slight favorite. Without a finish, I don’t think Spann is worth the forty to fifty significant strikes he’s likely to land, as he’s not a volume puncher. I’m taking Walker via TKO, round two.

Winner: Johnny Darko Walker | Method: TKO Rd.2

Mackenzie Dern (-175 ) vs. Randa Markos (+145 )

Dern: DK: $8.7k, FD: $16 | Markos: DK: $7.5k, FD: $11

This will be a banger. Dern opened as a big (-330) favorite, and you likely missed a good opportunity to cash in on the underdog Markos. Dern is now favored at (-175). Markos is coming in at (+145) but opened at (+270). Markos is the better all-around fighter, and Dern has the edge in grappling.

A Brazillian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and World Champion, Mackenzie Dern is always a submission threat. However, her standup doesn’t match her grappling prowess. She's able to overcome her lack of technique and survive the standup against better strikers because she is aggressive and throws nothing but bombs. A grappling oxymoron, Dern has an excellent ground game but can’t get it there. She struggles taking fights to the ground without the traditional wrestling double and single leg techniques in her arsenal. She needs Judo throws and trips and the cage to aid her takedowns.

Randa Markos is grimey and better than her 10-8 record would suggest. Like Angela Hill, Markos has been on the wrong end of some bad decisions. A lot like how the Dallas Cowboys are always on the wrong end of terrible officiating. Markos beat the aforementioned Hill by submission last year, and like Dern, fought Amanda Ribas to a close decision loss.

Both fighters average three significant strikes per minute, but it’s Markos who averages more takedowns. Markos averages just over one per fight, while Dern averages less than half a takedown. If you’re looking at one of these fighters for your roster, take Markos. Neither fighter has a KO/TKO on their resume, and I don’t expect a finish in this one. Give me the upset, Randa Markos, via decision.

Winner:Randa Markos | Method: Decision

Kevin Holland (-270 ) vs. Darren Stewart (+210 )

Holland: DK: $9.1k, FD: $20 | Stewart: DK: $7.1k, FD: $11

This card is filled with bangers, and this is no exception. Both fighters are coming off of recent wins, and both finish fights. Stewart relies on power, and Holland relies on volume and aggression. Kevin Holland is the better all-around fighter, with noine KO’s and six submissions in eighteen professional victories.

Stewart is 12-5 with seven KO’s and one submission. Stewart is a problem on his feet but doesn’t fight well with his back against the cage or on the mat. His takedown defense is lacking, and he doesn’t scramble well when taken down. For a fighter who relies mostly on his striking, Stewart lacks output, averaging about two and a half strikes per minute. He gets out-worked for long stretches, and Kevin Holland isn’t the type of fighter you can take your time with.

Holland averages twice as many strikes per minute at four and a half and has decent takedowns against the cage. I see Holland out-working Stewart and sprinkling in some takedowns here and there. I like Holland as a Fantasy pick, his pace will wear on Stewart and could end in a late stoppage. I’m going with Holland via rear-naked choke, round three.

Winner: Kevin Holland | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Prelims

Miguel Baeza ( ) vs. Jeremiah Wells ( )

Baeza: DK: TBD, FD: TBD |Wells: DK: TBD, FD: TBD

Miguel Baeza is another fighter receiving a late opponent. Baeza is a highly touted prospect coming off of a back and forth TKO over the veteran Matt You Don't Mess With A Man's Tobacco Brown. By way of the Contender Series, Baeza is 2-0 in the UFC with two-second round finishes.

Baeza's standup is a traditional Brazilian Muay Thai style and reminds me of the lightweight contender Charles Oliviera. To say this is a huge leap in competition for the late replacement Wells—who's making his debut from the regional circuit—would be a huge understatement.

All that is known of Wells is that he is 8-2 with three submission victories and two KO/TKO victories. These odds could get wild, as we saw with the Shana Dobson fight a couple weeks ago. Give me Baeza via TKO, round two. Definitely swoop up on Baeza for your roster. I'm sure he'll come with a hefty salary cap hit.

Winner: Miguel Baeza | Method: TKO Rd.2

Mirsad Bektic (+110 ) vs. Me (-110 )

Betktic: DK: $9.5k, FD: $22 | Damon Jackson: DK: TBD, FD: TBD

Bektic was originally scheduled to face the entertaining Eduardo Garagorri, but Garagorri was forced out of the fight. A late replacement hasn't been announced. Dana, I can be in Las Vegas in four hours. I'm ready to go, just give me the word.

Update: Damon Jackson steps in on short notice to face Bektic. Jackson, a UFC, Bellator, LFA and PFL veteran, has fought across all major MMA organizations. Since parting ways with the UFC in 2016, Jackson has won eight of his past 10 fights with all but one of his wins coming by finish.

Winner: Me | Method: D'arce Choke Rd.3

Mara Romero Borella (+195 ) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (-250 )

Borella: DK: $7.2k, FD: $11 | Silva: DK: $9k, FD: $17

Mara Borella has commitment issues; she doesn’t commit to any of her strikes. She looks like a student in the beginner’s class sparring for the first time. To avoid being hit, Borella shortens her punches and arm punches with no conviction. Borella is staring a fourth straight loss in the face and has lost six of her last seven.

There aren’t many videos available for Silva, but she fights like Wanderlei, with the same rounded shoulder, stalking style. Everything she throws is heavy, and she uses a good mix of kicks and punches. Like Wanderlei, she is very aggressive and constantly moves forward. Bueno Silva has an excellent guard and attacks with submissions from her back and is a better fighter than Borella.

I think this is a good fight to look for a finish, and Silva is a good addition to your fantasy roster. Borella has been KO/TKO’d four times in her career, and she has trouble with pressure fighters like Bueno Silva. Mayra Bueno Silva via TKO, round three.

 Winner: Mayra Bueno Silva | Method: TKO Rd.3

Jordan Espinosa (-115) vs. David Dvorak (-115)

Espinosa: DK: $8k, FD: $15 | Dvorak: DK: $8.2k, FD: $17

This is another complete toss-up. Espinosa has very quick hands and feet and pumps his jab to maintain distance while circling on the outside. He defends takedowns against the cage with vicious elbows and can be tough to get down. The D’arce choke—my favorite choke—is his specialty, and he looks for it when defending takedowns.

Espinosa’s strength is also a weakness; he maintains constant lateral movement but only circles one way, to his lead hand side. This leads him to walk into big power strikes and head kicks. A good fighter will key in on this and use hooks and round kicks to cut off the cage and walk him into power shots.

David Dvorak hasn’t lost since he was a teenager, and he’s now twenty-eight with a record of 18-3. There’s nothing flashy about him, but he has very technical striking. Dvorak counters moving backward and has excellent knee strikes from the Thai plum clinch. He’s aggressive without a high volume and uses leg kicks in combination with his hands. He scrambles well from the bottom but can be taken down.

Espinosa is the more active fighter with much quicker hands, but Dvorak is rugged and uses good fundamentals. Dvorak is making only his second appearance in the Octagon. Espinosa landed almost one hundred thirty strikes in his last fight, a win, but lost in the first round in consecutive fights before that. I’m going with… I have no idea. Give me David Dvorak via decision. Both would make good mid-level roster picks, as I think it’s likely to go the distance with a lot of exchanges on the feet.

Winner: David Dvorak | Method: Decision

Jessica-Rose Clark (-210 ) vs. Sarah Alpar (+170 )

Clark: DK: $8.9k, FD: $16 | Alpar: DK: $7.3k, FD: $12

Sorry ladies, but my close homie, Mary Jane, will be stopping by during this scrap, so I apologize in advance for missing this one. There’s not much to say about this, other than it would be a good opportunity to re-up on whatever vice or libation you partake in during fight nights. You already know how I get down.

Clark is a decent striker and does have a win against Paige VanZant, but that’s not a huge accomplishment. Jessica-Rose got boxed-up Willie in her last fight against Pannie Kianzad. Clark relies on her right hand too much and telegraphs it with no setup.

Sarah Alpar looks like she asks to speak to the manager at Sprouts when the Kumquats aren’t ripe. She’s making her debut after a win on the Contender Series, and previous to that, she fought a lady who showed up with a Groupon for a free class. Her striking, it’s not good, and sometimes it turns into Maury Povich stage slapping. A southpaw, she tends to dip her head into an orthodox fighter’s power shots and telegraphs her left hand.

At (+170), I’ll take the underdog Alpar to get takedowns and… Nah, no, I won’t. Give me Jessica-Rose Clark via decision, and keep both away from your Fantasy Rosters.

Winner: Jessica-Rose Clark | Method: Decision 

Randy Costa (+115 ) vs. Journey Newson (-145 )

Costa: DK: $7.8K, FD: $16 | Newson: DK: $8.4k, FD: $17

Don’t miss this fight. This is definitely a fight of the night candidate featuring two high-level strikers. Randy Costa has long strikes and can hit you from across the cage. He’s tough to get inside on with his Gumby arms, and he throws everything with power. Sneaky head kicks out of nowhere accent his aggressive forward pressure, and he has only been out of the first round one time in six professional fights.

Journey Newson is a full-size John Dodson with a larger arsenal of strikes. He utilizes front kicks, sidekicks, spinning wheel kicks, and has nasty standing elbows. His father was a professional boxer and started Journey in combat sports at a young age. In his last fight, he went the distance and held his own against Ricardo Ramos, who is a future title contender. He has trouble closing the distance against longer fighters, so that will be a challenge for him in this matchup.

Journey is opening as the slight favorite, and Costa is as good an upset pick as any fighter on this card. I’m going to take the more experienced fighter who’s been in deep waters with top competition, Journey Newson. This will likely be a back and forth barnburner with both fighters having their moments. On wax, Newson via decision. Confidence index: 50%.

Winner: Journey Newson | Method: Decision

Andre Ewell (-210 ) vs. Irwin Rivera (+170 )

Ewell: DK: $8.8K, FD: $18 | Rivera: DK: $7.4k, FD: $14

Another great matchup. This entire card is one of the most competitive cards I’ve seen in a while, literally from top to bottom. This is another crazy style matchup between a long, rangy Andre Ewell and the whirlwind that is Irwin Rivera.

Rivera made his UFC debut on a week’s notice, moving up in weight to Featherweight to fight the Glory Kickboxing veteran Giga Chikadze. In the first round, Rivera gave the much larger Chikadze all he could handle by throwing everything, starting with the kitchen sink. Rivera is high energy and not afraid to exchange. He won his last fight against a tough Ali AlQaisi last month.

Ewell looks like the better fighter in the first round but is a completely different fighter by the third. He has a problem with fading late in fights and takes a lot of damage. He relies on bobbing and weaving to defend strikes and keeps his hands low at all times. Marlon Vera destroyed Ewell with body kicks, and Ewell’s wide stance makes him susceptible to leg kicks.

I really want to take the slight underdog, Rivera, but his low output worries me. He has averaged thirty-five strikes in his two UFC fights, while Ewell is consistently in the seventy to eighty range. I like Ewell’s chances to finish the fight more than Rivera’s, and I think that makes him a better Fantasy option. I’ll take Ewell via decision.

Winner: Andre Ewell | Method: Decision

Darrick Minner (+230 ) vs. T.J. Laramie (-300 )

Minner: DK: $7k, FD: $13 | Laramie: DK: $9.2k, FD: $19

Darrick Minner is 24-11 with twenty-one submission victories, including ten by guillotine choke. Missy Elliot wrote a song in the ’90s about Minner, it’s called One Minute Man. Minner is one to two minutes of fury, then he rolls over and smokes a cigarette. He’s kill or be killed, and that’s usually decided very early in the fight. Eight of his eleven losses are by submission, as he tends to hunt for guillotine chokes every chance he gets, and if he doesn’t land it, he ends up in bad positions.

Laramie is the far more technical fighter and the one who can dictate where the fight takes place. He has technical striking and strong wrestling with active ground and pound. Body striking is one of the most overlooked aspects of MMA, especially when the fight goes to the mat. Laramie brutalizes the body from the top position and wears fighters out.

Wu-Tang said it best, Protect Ya Neck. Laramie needs to protect his and defend Minner’s guillotine attempts. I’ll take the debuting fighter, T.J. Laramie, via decision. 

Winner: T.J. Laramie | Method: Decision

Tyson Nam (-175 ) vs. Jerome Rivera (+145 )

Nam: DK: $8.6k, FD: $17 | Rivera: DK: $7.6k, FD: $16

This fight was added on very short notice and will be the fifteenth fight scheduled for Saturday night. I’ll keep it short. I don’t know anything about Jerome Rivera, who is making his debut from the Contender Series. I know Tyson Nam is highly overrated and has slow, vanilla striking. He has a low output and won’t put up many Fantasy points. I’ll pick blind on this one and go with Jerome Rivera because I just bought a new couch at a furniture store called Jerome’s, and it seems like an omen. Jerome Rivera via decision.

Winner: Jerome Rivera | Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.

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