Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Arnold Allen (+150) vs. Max Holloway (-180)

Allen: DK: $7.2k | Holloway: DK:$9k

Arnold Allen is an op, a Fed, an undercover savage. One second, you are in an alley scoring a KFC family meal, levying suspicions that the gravy is cut with Boston Market’s, the next, the bums sleeping nearby under cardboard boxes are pointing ARs at you, screaming, "Get on the ground, get on the f**king ground!" But after noine straight dubs to start his UFC career, Arnold Allen won’t be fooling anybody much longer. This Saturday night will be his final assignment; its successful completion will blow his cover and expose him as the future of the division many have long since suspected him of being. But infiltrating a legend’s inner circle and gaining acceptance into the upper echelon of one of the deepest divisions in the world, will be Allen’s most dangerous assignment yet.

Arnold Allen, your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to use your superior power, specifically, the DARPA-developed nuclear fission cells implanted into your left hand, to earn the respect of one of the most notorious one hundred forty-five-pound Dons to ever reign supreme and take his place among the elite. Show no respect, as none will be afforded to you. Your aggression and willingness to engage on the feet and commitment to pursue a mixed martial arts affair and not relent to the pressure to engage in a twenty-five-minute kickboxing match will be the keys to your success. Of course, should you fail and ultimately succumb to the unrelenting pressure, volume, and pace of Max Holloway, the secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions. This breakdown will self-destruct within five seconds of reading it. 

“Hey” Arnold Allen has been one of the biggest sleepers in the UFC since 2015. His rise has been obscured by the fact that he’s only fought ten times in eight years and only competed twice in a single year two times. Other than 2019 and 2022, Allen has been that once-a-year surprise that pops up unannounced and has you sweating test results like having to cough in public in 2020. But he’s made the most of his fights and seems to be hitting another level. In his first seven UFC bouts, Allen finished two; he has two TKO/KO finishes in his last two bouts. His most recent fight against Kalvin Kattar ended with a freak Kalvin Kattar knee injury, but Allen’s power was already causing Kattar some problems.   

Early in his career, I thought of Allen as more of a wrestler with keep-you-honest power but overall, fairly generic skills on the feet. But Arnold has developed into a strike-first wrestle-second fighter, having bested three strikers in a row, Sodiq Yusuff, Dan Hooker, and Calvin Kattar. Arnold has made steady strides because he has a solid base, starting with his stance. He rolls his shoulders forward and tucks his chin between them, making it hard to land on him clean. Although he doesn’t have intricate footwork in/out of the pocket and switching stances and all that jive, he uses excellent lateral movement, never retreating in a straight line and constantly seeking angles to attack. By now, most people are keen on Arnold’s left hand, but the lightning to its thunder is his left round kick. You don’t want to ride the Arnold Allen lightning. You don’t want to catch an ankle sock tan line upside your head. 

Red flags: Allen likes to use a frame guard with his lead right hand; it looks like he’s using Captain America’s shield to deflect strikes in front of him. The problem with the frame guard is when you are standing across from a body snatcher like Max Holloway, who will set up body shots, especially to the liver side, which is exposed when you’re a southpaw. Also, Allen is mostly a one-punch striker who averages less than three and a half significant strikes per minute compared to Maxxy Baby’s near seven and a half. Allen either has to commit to a firefight and an increased output or use his wrestling to fill in the gaps, make Max work to defend takedowns, and get back to his feet. Max won’t let Allen sit on the outside and measure Max up for left hands all night. 

Max Holloway needs no introduction; he is that dude. Which dude? THE dude. Holloway’s style is indefinite, infinite. He’s the original Castor Troy; he’ll box your face... off and wear it around town, frequenting all your favorite establishments and hollering at your past Bettys, pretending to be a new you, a changed man. His style is all-you-can-eat combinations, a Vegas buffet that never closes unlike The Frying Dutchman. Open twenty-four hours, Dusk Til Dawn; if Max doesn’t have it, you don’t want it. After most Max Holloway fights, you feel like you watched something illegal and destroy all your hard drives. He usually turns people from solids to liquids, extra pulp, not from concentrate. Max’s weapon of choice? Volume. This will be a Volume vs. Power matchup, and the question will be, will Allen’s power translate deep into the fight after sustaining heavy damage? 

The key for Max will be not fighting Alexander Volkanovski. Max’s last fight against the man who many believe beat Islam Makhachev may have exposed some of Max’s diminishing hand speed and, subsequently, an inability to string together his trademark extended Killer Instinct combinations. It could be that Volkanovski is just that fast, but Max never looked a step behind Volk in the two previous fights. Max has to feint and pepper from the outside to draw out Allen’s power so Max can counter accordingly and safely enter the pocket. Allen isn’t built for exchanging in the pocket; he’s not a combination striker, and his strikes are long. Look for Max to squat in the pocket until the landlords call the authorities to have him removed.     

Max’s vast experience fighting the very best in the world justifies his favorite (-190) status, but Allen (+160) will be a valuable dog. This kind of has the feel like Max might be teetering on the downside of his career after earning General stripes in countless wars over the years. But then again, Max is only one fight removed from an impressive dub against the wild card of all wild cards, Yair Rodriguez. Max has only been finished once in his career, a submission loss to Dustin Poirier way back in 2012 when my hairline didn’t look like Fire Marshall Bill’s. That means, more than likely, Allen will have to go a full twenty-five minutes without sustaining heavy damage. But the same will go for Max; in twenty career fights, Allen is 19-1 and has never been waved off. 

Two Israel Adesanya Thor hammers ended the main event-winning streak last weekend. Just when I thought Izzy was fading and a third TKO/KO loss was creeping on the horizon, one of the sport’s GOATS did some GOAT shit. This one is a mindf**k. It all comes down to how much Max has left. On wax; Max Holloway via decision. 

Winner: Max Holloway | Method: Decision

Billy Quarantillo (-175) vs. Edson Barboza (+145)

Quarantillo: DK: $8.7k | Barboza: DK: $7.5k

This one is the equivalent of two elevators heading in opposite directions. Edson Barboza is a legend and, at one time, was one of the most feared strikers in the game. And Billy Q. is a filthy savage with mid-level skills and elite-level heart. In the event of nuclear winter, Billy Q. would be the sole survivor, making snow angels and riding toboggans down mountains of ash. This fight will represent speed and athleticism versus blue-collar American fortitude. You can hurt Billy Q., you can make Billy Q. bleed profusely, but so far in the UFC, nobody has been able to finish Billy Q. Somewhere, Terry Etim has a Billy Q. voodoo doll and a G.I. Joe action figure throwing spinning wheel kicks at the voodoo doll so the powers that be will update the Edson Barboza highlight reel and give him a break. 

Alpine swifts are birds that can stay in the air for six months straight, over two hundred days, without touching the ground. The Alpine Swift is Edson Barboza’s spirit animal. If he never touched the ground, he might be a former Champ. But instead, as soon as Barboza’s ass touches down, a snake comes along and swallows him whole. You see the Edson Barboza outline struggling all the way down the length of its body until some Aborigines come along and cut him out. In his last bout, Bryce Mitchell took Barboza down four times, and just the threat of takedowns allowed the weaker striker Mitchell to drop Barboza in the first round. Then there is the infamous Khabib fight. Khabib took Barboza down and punched gold rings out of Barboza’s ass; they flew all over the arena, and people in the stands were scrappin’ trying to grab them. Malice in the Palace 2.0. 

But on the feet, Barboza is a mother-shut-your-mouf. He has a Ron Artest left hook, a Jermaine O’Neal right hand, and some of the nastiest round kicks the game has ever seen. Barboza is in the upper echelon of leg kickers, sharing the same company as the Aldo's, Gaethje’s, and Rizzo’s. His spinning attacks are fundamental strikes that materialize out of nowhere. He does have one tell, though, when he’s about to spin on you: When Barboza circles after an exchange and adjusts his gloves, he is about to throw that wheel kick. The key to fighting Barboza on the feet is eliminating the middle ground. You either have to be all in or all out. Blood in, blood out, carnal. You either have to be clear across the cage and out of kicking range or in his chest, luring him into a firefight in the pocket.   

The key for Barboza will be maintaining his presence in the center of the Octagon and staying away from the cage where Billy Q. can get hold of him and possibly drag Barboza to the mat. On the feet, Billy Q. can’t hang with Barboza when Barboza is doing Barboza shit, leg kicking and firing off quick hooks and overhands. 

That means the key for Billy Q. is eliminating space and fighting in a phone booth. Barboza has a Valentine’s Day guard, a lover's guard. As soon as Barboza is on his back, they dim the lights, bust out the Yankee candles, and litter the cage with rose petals. Billy Q. has to wade into the pocket behind heavy overhands and close the distance to initiate the clinch. From there, he needs to go full old-school Randy Couture and dirty box while looking for trips to gain top control. If Billy Q. can’t close the distance, this one could get ugly quick. Billy is a notoriously slow starter; they have to hit him with the shock pads to get him started. Clear! You gotta hit up 7-11 and the pills they keep next to the register to get this guy started. Homie looks like Carry at the prom after the glove touch. He’s the equivalent of a 90s action movie protagonist left for dead in the desert, only to return later and exact his revenge. 

“I thought you were dead!” 

Billy Q. is a high-output striker who uses pressure and a steady barrage of hooks and wild overhands to slowly break his opponents. He’s a Chito Vera striker who uses all his weapons to inflict differing levels of damage. But his biggest weapon is his heart. You can give him that Guantanamo Bay treatment for fifteen minutes and still not finish him; he’ll still keep coming forward. Survive and advance. That will be key for Billy. He will be at a decided speed and technical disadvantage on the feet, but even if he can’t get Barboza to the mat, he can survive and take over in the latter rounds. 

Whoa! Billy Q. is the (-175) favorite, and Barboza is the (+145) dog. Bring ‘em out, bring ‘em out! Bust out the Piso Mojado signs; Edson Barboza will be flooding your basement with value. Billy Q. is far from an efficient wrestler with dominant takedowns. There's a good chance he may not be able to drag Barboza to the mat and be forced to stand for long stretches. If that is the case, Barboza’s kicks will take their toll. And Barboza has the tighter, more technical boxing. I love me some Billy Q., and I am stoked he is in a co-main event, but if there is anything left in Barboza’s tank, this should be his fight. Fantasy-wise, both fighters are finishing threats, but Billy averages nearly eight significant strikes per minute to Barboza’s four. Barboza will have a ton of value as a low/middle-tier option. Give me the dog. Give me Edson Barboza via decision.   

Winner: Edson Barboza | Method: Decision

Azamat Murzakanov (+140) vs. Dustin Jacoby (-170)

Murzakanov: DK: $7.3k | Jacoby: DK:$8.9k

Don’t let the “ov” in Murzakanov fool you. Azamat Murzakanov loves to stand and trade hands, and this should be a stand-up banger and a clash of polar opposite styles. Dustin Jacoby is a former Glory Kickboxing Champion who once fought (and lost) Alex Periera. He will be the more technical striker with the far more diverse attacks, but Azamat will be the more powerful striker with a specialized weapon, his left hand. This fight should all but guarantee a finish one way or the other.  

Beware of dudes rocking the cul-de-sac hairlines and a dad bod; they’ll crack your ass like Parks and Rec singly-ply tp. But Murzakanov doesn’t have a dad bod; he has a father figure, and his left hand will son you real quick. Azamat is a southpaw who relies heavily on his overhand left. It’s a Randy Johnson one-hundred-one mph fastball. On the regional scene, Murzakanov once threw a left hand and hit a bird streaking past midflight. He was picketed outside his house by PETA afterward. There’s no secret as to what Azamat is going to do; noine out of ten times, he’s going to throw his left hand. He spams the left hand until you’re completely inundated and become overwhelmed. Any given Saturday night, you can catch Azamat outside an IHOP, parking lot simpin’ for left hands. His right hand is relegated to range-finding duty or to creating a distraction so the left hand can sneak into the club past security. He’s one of the few people who can truly say he can knock you the fook out with one hand tied behind his back. If he hits you with it, that little dweeb from the Sixth Sense starts chatting you up. 

Ok, you get it; dude has heavy power. The thing is, he’s so effective at throwing his left hand he doesn’t really need much else. He loves using same-hand combinations and changing the arm angle of the left hand. Also, he will attack the body behind his distracting jab and then come back to the top. Oddly, for a guy who throws noinety percent left hands, Azamat switches things up well and manages to give different looks. Azamat does have a major red flag, though. In his debut against Tefon Nchukwi, he gassed heavily after the first round and was on his way to an L before he pulled off a Hail Mary flying knee KO in the third. The key for Azamat against the more well-rounded striker in Dustin Jacoby will be pressure. Dustin will touch him up from the outside if Azamat doesn’t keep that left hand in his face. 

Dustin Jacoby is an elite-level striker with a lot of manipulative idiosyncrasies. You’ll see Jacoby use a rear teep feint often throughout a fight. It is almost like a base setup for him; he can fire it off as a kick, use it to jumpstart a combination, shield defensively, draw out defensive reactions and create openings. He also likes to reach with both hands and manipulate the opponent’s handguards. He will play Patty Cake with you, then pull your guard down and elbow or strike over the top. Also, it stifles the opponent’s offense. The tradeoff is that you can strike around his outreached hands as if often the case and the cause for most of the damage Jacoby takes. A technique that isn’t used enough is varying the tempos of strikes. Jacoby will poke and prod with peppering punches, then suddenly switch to power punches and then back to peppering. He’ll lull you to sleep, then drop the whammy. 

Like Brandon Ingram, Jacoby is a master of the midrange. He stays just outside of opponents’ attacks and within countering range. You won’t catch him loitering in the pocket or dancing on the outside. He stays right in front of you, poised to attack. Volume, combinations, and leg kicks will be the keys for Jacoby against Azamat. He averages five and a half significant strikes per minute to Azamat’s four and a half, and his path to victory is getting ahead on the punch stats and judges' cards. And he will have a solid shot at scoring a late finish against a guy with sus cardio. 

Dustin Jacoby will be the (-175) favorite, and Azamat will be the (+140) dog. Azamat’s upside as a dog is to the moon. He can put Jacoby away with that left hand at any moment. The question is, can he keep a consistent pace for fifteen minutes? For his career, Azamat is 12-0 with noine TKO/KO’s and one sub, including 2-0 in the UFC with two TKO/KO’s. In his second stint with the UFC, Jacoby has three TKO/KO’s in his last eight fights. The bigger finishing threat will be the dog Azamat. This is a complete toss-up. Azamat’s cardio worries me. Dustin Jacoby via decision.

Winner: Dustin Jacoby | Method: Decision

Tanner Boser (+110) vs. Ion Cutelaba (-130)

Boser: DK: $7.8k | Cutelaba: DK: $8.4k

The proverbial minivan vs. Toyota Frontrunner. This fight shouldn’t last long; for better or worse, most Ion Cutelaba fights end in the first round. He either picks you up, slams you, and beats you into submission, or he picks you up, slams you, and beats you into near submission, then rolls over and gets his own ass beat into submission or choked. And Tanner Boser is a “Where Are They Now” version of one of the Goth kids on South Park all grown up. It will be an uphill battle for Tanner early and a downhill bomb trying not to succumb to the speed wobbles late. 

Ion Cutelaba is a Boston Strangler victim-level choker inside the Octagon. A David Carradine spring fashion shoot-level choker. 27-0, 28-3, they don’t have shit on Cutelaba. Cutelaba’s defensive wrestling/grappling is the opposite of his offensive wrestling/grappling. As long as he can maintain the top position, he will steamroll you. But if he loses the top position, he will rarely regain it.   

On the feet, Cutelaba has massive power but lacks tact. His left hook and overhand right are fight-enders, but he lacks the savvy to engage in prolonged kickboxing matches. In his last bout, Kennedy Nzechukwu left Cutelaba slumped against the cage like a St. Valentines Day massacre victim. For once, it was Kennedy delivering the headshots. Cutelaba will have the edge in one-punch power against Boser, but Boser puts together combinations better and has better movement. But the key for Cutelaba will be takedowns. The arena’s AC can push over Tanner Boser; his takedown defense and subsequent grappling are “Needs Improvement” and require a Parent-Teacher conference to rectify. 

Tanner Boser is coming off a title fight. His last bout was a Love’s vs. Flying J cross promotional heavyweight title unifying bout against Rodrigo Nascimento. Boser lost that fight and is now in the light heavyweight division. His major malfunction is his lack of takedown defense and his propensity to use the koala guard from the bottom. He looks like when you wear an infant in a carrier against your chest. And he turns into a projectile when he walks into a convenience store. But on the feet, Boser has solid cardio and sneaky power. If he can avoid Cutelaba’s power early, he can pick Cutelaba apart with short combinations and leg kicks. This is one of the rare occasions when fighting along the warning track can be an advantage. If Boser stays near the fence, he can use it to help get back up when he is taken down. If he has to get back to his feet in the middle of the cage, fogitaboutit. 

Cutelaba will be the (-130) favorite, due to his massive advantage on the mat, and Boser will be the (+110) stray dog. I like Cutelaba’s chances to finish this fight early and Boser’s chances to finish it late. Betting on Cutelaba is like betting on Gerald Meerschaert; you never know wtf you’re gonna get. Against my better judgment: Ion Cutelaba via rear-naked choke, round one. Dammit. I’m stuck on this one. Give me Tanner Boser via TKO, round three. 

Winner: Tanner Boser | Method: TKO Rd.3

Pedro Munhoz (+180) vs. Chris Gutierrez (-220)

Munhoz: DK: $6.8k | Gutierrez.: DK:$9.4k

This one will turn into Crazy Legs vs. Lieutenant Dan, Jimmy Valmer vs. Timmy Burch. These are two prominent leg kickers responsible for crippling more people than Polio. Chris Gutierrez is a Civil War surgeon, and Pedro Munhoz is an extremity lumberjack. These two will go back and forth, giving each other Charlie horses like bickering siblings. You know what time it is: Bust out the Brett Favre Copper Fit compression socks; catching secondhand compression syndrome while watching this one is all but a certainty.   

Pedro Munhoz is an underrated little wrecking ball. You think you’re a real boy until he hacks off your legs and uses them as kindling. He’ll have your new stumps getting stuck in shower drains. A couple of Munhoz leg kicks, and your stand-up  will look like FDR’s. There are a lot of good leg kickers in the UFC, but nobody is as dependent on them as Munhoz. His whole offense is predicated on the success of landing low calf kicks. When he can't land them in volume, as was the case against Jose Aldo and somewhat against Dom Cruz, his striking effectiveness drops dramatically. He’s unable to close the distance effectively and consistently.   

Munhoz is natural in both stances and flows between them fluidly, allowing him to attack either of the opponent’s legs. And he unloads short little hooks in the pocket and never turns down a firefight. I think he will have to rely more on his hands in this fight. Gutierrez’s weakness is his hands and exchanging in the pocket. Exchanging in the pocket is one of Munhoz’s strengths and the area he will be able to cause the most damage.   

Chris Gutierrez will turn you into Blade Runner real quick. Oscar Pistorius-type-ish. You get lifetime front-of-the-line passes and bigger bathroom stalls after Gutierrez gets done kicking your legs. Gutierrez is one of those rare fighters who have better kicks than hands. Where Munhoz mostly only attacks the legs, Gutierrez has a diverse kicking game. He has excellent leg dexterity and can turn teeps into round kicks and round kicks into teeps. Men lie, women lie, and so do hips. Gutierrez uses hip feints to set up kicks and spinning shit. His special move is the Shonie Carter spinning back fist. Against Danaa Batgerel, Gutierrez spent the whole first round using hip feints to set up the eventual KO back fist in the second round. He can also land spinning back kicks to the body from within the pocket, a rare ability.   

Gutierrez is a reserved one-punch striker; he likes to engage from the outside in controlled traditional back-and-forth exchanges. The key will be using long-range kicks and a consistent jab to keep Munhoz stuck in no-man's land. He doesn’t want to get stuck in the pocket, engaging in 50/50 exchanges. Munhoz is as tough as they come; in twenty-six career fights, he has never been finished. But there is a chance Munhoz, like Max, might be teetering on the downside of his career. Gutierrez has all the weapons to be the first to finish Munhoz, but he will have to increase his volume.   

This card is full of toss-ups, old heads vs. the new school,  and has the recipe for an ugly pick ‘em. Gutierrez is the (-220) dog, and Munhoz is the (+180) dog. Munhoz will be another live dog with a high upside. I don’t think he can finish Gutierrez, but he’s the higher output striker and can outwork Gutierrez and steal a decision. Put it on wax: Chris Gutierrez via decision.  

Winner: Chris Gutierrez | Method: Decision

Rafa Garcia (-250) vs. Clay Guida (+205)

Garcia: DK: $9.5k | Guida.: DK:$6.7k

The Lil Homie That Could vs. The Geico Caveman. Rafa Garcia is a little underrated gangster C-Walking across the Octagon like Dub C across the stage in a pair of Chucks. And Clay Guida is one of the O-est O-G's in the promotion's history. This matchup will go 0-100 in less than two seconds and redline until the final bell. The fight will go everywhere, on the feet, in the clinch, on the mat, in the rafters, under the Octagon, or in the crowd. 

Cue the Clipse “Grindin’.” Rafa Garcia is a punch-the-clock-and-rack-up-unapproved-OT blue-collar grinder. He withstands your best shots and outlasts your inferior will. All paths to victory against Garcia require off-roading. There are no glaring holes in his game; he can take you down and dominate the top position or stand and trade in the pocket and let the chips fall where they may. But his best attribute is his heart. In his last bout against Maheshate, Garcia had to survive a nasty cut for the second half of the fight. Homie was spraying blood like the club’s sprinklers in Blade. His corner had to give him blood transfusions between rounds. 

His biggest weakness is defending up the middle. Knees, teeps, uppercuts, and snap kicks are all kryptonite to Rafa Garcia. The key for Garcia against Guida will be out-Guida'ing Clay Guida. Meaning he has to outwork and out-hustle Charlie Hustle himself. Clay has shown signs of decline (but keeps winning), and what was thought impossible even just a couple of years ago has become possible. Garcia has to pressure clay and mix in wrestling and clinch work.   

Prime Clay Guida vs. Merab Dvalishvili at 145 might be the prelim opener on an all-time great matchups card. In his prime, Clay would smoke Rafa Garcia. But Clay isn’t in his prime and is starting to look like the Bonnie and Clyde car on the verge of being put out to pasture. Guida’s style used to be a kinetic ball of bouncing and bobbing and weaving, but now that trademark perpetual Guida movement is fading to black. Now Guida is flatter footed and parries punches with his face. He has that Chris Rock defense. Clay used to thrive in a firefight and come out looking like Danearys emerging from the smoldering rubble. Now he comes out of a firefight and gets sent back to the kitchen, too well done.   

As is the underlying theme of this card, Guida has a ton of heart and still has infinite, bottomless cardio. He might be at a disadvantage in almost every measurable except those two categories. But this will be Garcia’s fight to lose. To give himself a chance against Rafa, Clay needs to get back to his wrestling roots and put Rafa on his back before Rafa can do it to him.   

Rafa will be the (-250) favorite, and Guida will be the (+200) dog. I think there’s minimum value for clay Fantasy-wise. His output is only two and a half significant strikes landed per minute, and he only has one finish since 2018. But he averages nearly three and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes, and Garcia has shown holes in his takedown defense. And Guida did score four takedowns against Scott Holtzman last time out. But I’m taking Garcia to be a step ahead in the striking and grappling. Rafa Garcia via decision. 

Winner: Rafa Garcia | Method: Decision

Prelims

Value Menu

Brandon Royval (+170) vs Matheus Nicolau (-210)

Royval: DK: $7.1k | Nicolau: DK:$9.1k

This is reckless abandon vs. technique. Brandon Royval is an adrenaline junky who requires danger everywhere he goes. His grappling is probably the most entertaining in the promotion; he is always forcing scrambles, taking sub risks, and dealing damage from the top. He’s an ADHD striker that never stops moving, throwing looping punches, spinning and flying ish, and overall, just being a damn menace to society.   

Matheus Nicolau might prove to be the dark horse in the flyweight division. On his second stint in the UFC—he went 3-1 in his first with a loss to Dustin Ortiz—Nicolau has gone 4-0 with dubs over Manel Kape (I thought Kape won), Tim Elliot, David Dvorak, and Matt Schnell. Those are four solid wins, and the win over Schnell last time out was a nasty second-round TKO. For his career, Nicolau is an excellent 19-2 with five TKO/KO’s and five subs. He is a reserved striker who won’t light up the scoreboard, but I think his style will put Royval in trouble often. 

Brandon Royval does triple gainers into the pocket; he’s a mini-Kevin Holland in the way he recklessly leaps to cover distance. This will increase his chances of running into a little Nicolau bomb. Nicolau’s advantage is as the more technical, powerful striker on the feet, and Royval’s advantage will be on the mat, causing havoc and using wild scrambles to create sub attempts. Nicolau is the (-210) favorite, and Royval is the (+170) dog. This fight will produce two things: A finish and a live dog. Royval has the x-factors you can’t prepare for: pace and a tepid fear of death. He is kill or be killed to a fault, and he will indeed do one or the other on Saturday night. 

Daniel Zellhuber (-125) vs. Lando Vannata (-105)

Zellhuber: DK: $7.7k | Vannata: DK:$8.8k

“Daddy’s” Lando Vannata is back. He’s the wild little striker who famously, in his late replacement debut, nearly KO’d Tony Ferguson when Fergy was still in the middle of his twelve-fight dub streak. He also had two epic wars with my favorite fighter, Bobby Green (who is fighting next week). Lando is a movement-based striker, using stance switches and excellent movement to set up fancy kicks and quick combinations. 

Daniel Zellhuber was 12-0 coming off the Contender Series and was highly touted before his debut against Trey Ogden last year. Zellhuber laid an egg; there’s no GPS alternative route around it. He got to the big show and was frozen under the big lights. Frozen, like Elsa as Stylebender is wont to say. I think this will be a big comeback fight for him, and the fix he needed to make after his debut is an easy one to make: Let your fookin’ hands go! 

The Royval vs. Nicolau and Aaron Phillips vs. Gaston Bolanos fights are the only fights on the undercard favored to end before the final bell. I think Zellhuber vs. Vannata will provide the best opportunity to score finishing points of all the other undercard matchups. Zellhuber will be the (-125) favorite, and Vannata will be the slight (+105) dog. Vannata will be yet another valuable dog with a high upside. His experience dwarfs Zellhuber’s, and there’s a chance Zellhuber could freeze again...like Elsa.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Azamat Murzakanov (+140): For as good a technical striker as Dustin Jacoby is, he is very hittable and lacks the one-punch power of Murzakanov. It will be very difficult for Jacoby to avoid that left hand for fifteen minutes. Murzakanov is the finishing threat in this matchup, and he has a second path to victory; he can always choose to wrestle and try to grind out Jacoby from the top position. 

T.J. Brown (+160): Brown vs. Algeo is a complete toss-up, and (+160) for a guy coming off a bout in which he out-grappled a talented prospect in Erik Silva is a steal. The knock against Bill Algeo is that he has zero point zero power on the feet. His strikes bounce off opponents and stick to him. On the mat, he is legit, but so is T.J. Brown. I think Brown has better takedowns and could salt away valuable minutes from the top position. But don’t expect a finish; Bill Algeo has been impossible to submit in the UFC. If this stays standing, it will be anybody’s fight. 

Clay Guida (+205): If it weren’t for an ill-advised pit stop after his fight against Mark O. Madsen at a certain Valero in the Nevada desert where a band of armed robbers wearing dead presidents' masks has been known to hold up fighters for their dubs in the facility’s restrooms, Clay Guida would be the winner of four of his last five bouts. But since 2021, Clay still has dubs over Michael Johnson, Leonardo Santos, and Scott Holtzman. There’s still the very real possibility Guida will outwork Rafa Garcia and take Garcia down repeatedly and steal another dub. (+205) for a legend against a guy with a nearly identical skill set, and a quarter of the experience is more value than you can shake a stick at.   

Pick 'Em

Bill Algeo (-200) vs. T.J. Brown (+160) 

            Winner: "Oh No Mr." Bill Algeo 

 Method: Decision

Brandon Royval (+170) vs. Matheus Nicolau (-210) 

            Winner: Matheus Nicolau

 Method: TKO Rd.3

Zak Cummings (-230) vs. Ed Herman (+180) 

            Winner: Zak Cummings

 Method: TKO Rd.3

Gillian Robertson (-130) vs. Piera Rodriguez (+100)  

            Winner: Gillian Robertson

 Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2

Lando Vannata (-105) vs. Daniel Zellhuber (-125)

            Winner: Daniel Zellhuber

 Method: Decision

Bruna Silva (-185) vs. Denise Gomes (+150)

    Winner: Bruna Silva

              Method: Decision

Aaron Phillips (+160) vs. Gaston Bolanos (-200)

            Winner: Gaston Bolanos

            Method: TKO Rd.2

Joselyne Edwards (+110) vs. Lucie Pudilova (-140)

           Winner: Joselyne Edwards

           Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy. 

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning