Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card 

Dive into a detailed UFC spectacle where strategy, skill, and unexpected turns meet. From Ankalaev's rematch with Walker to Hawes facing Ferreira, every fight is a story waiting to be told.

Magomed Ankalaev (-500) vs. Johnny Walker (+395)

Ankalaev: DK: $9.4k | Walker: DK:$6.8k

When you walk through the halls of 2023, echos of “Zombie... Zombie... Zombie-ie-ie!” ring eternally, and images of Robbie Lawler folding Niko Price like an Olive Garden napkin with a series of uppercuts before walking off into the sunset play on loop. The ESPN Top Ten of ‘23 was topped by one of the best title fight performances ever-ever when Sean Strickland pitched a perfect game against one of the best strikers to ever grace the Octagon, Israel Adesanya. I went outside the box for my 2020 Fighter of the Year: Roman Kopylov. Dude went 3-0 with three vicious TKOs while looking like when it comes to Chase Hooper, Roman... You ARE the father! But it’s time to put the frozen Dick Clark head back in the freezer next to the slice of wedding cake for another twelve months and prepare for the year of UFC 300. 

What have I been up to? Well, I became self-made. Not by design but by pure luck. I stubbed my toe on my new Bryce Mitchell bearskin rug the day after UFC 296 and became bedridden. It wasn’t long before I was living in squalor, struggling to make ends meet, so I did the only thing I could and started selling pictures of my foot. Black and blue and swollen like a Jimmy Dean breakfast sausage, my defunct toe helped me build a following quickly. But it wasn’t until I grew some toenail fungus that I really blew up. Not one to rest on my laurels, I decided to take things to the next level. I started walking around the mall in shoes a size too small to develop bunions and corns and began taking artistic portraits wearing chanclas and set against backdrops with different terrains, puddles, dirt roads, cracked pavement, etc. Next thing I knew, I was the Gisele Bündchen of that bish. 

But I decided to walk away from it all and return to my true love, talkin’ shit and placing bets on underdogs like swing sets. It’s fitting we’re starting off the new year with some old shit, a rematch of a fight that ended because Johnny Walker gave the ref a macro answer to the question, “Where are you?” after a Magomed Ankalaev illegal knee. Walker’s answer: “The Milky Way.” Technically, Walker wasn’t wrong. His answer was based on his worldview that we’re all part of a much bigger picture in the grand scheme of the universe. Or maybe the ref’s beef was that Walker didn’t phrase his answer in the form of a question, “What is the Milky Way?” Either way, here we are. 

For the three minutes that it lasted, the first fight played out like a 1600s shin diggings contest with Ankalaev and Walker clad in shepherd's smocks kicking the shit outta each other's shins. After the Jan Blachowicz fight, Ankalaev had to be fitted with two wooden legs and took up a second job crushing cans down at the local recycling plant. This prosthetic leg keeps crushing my ___! Walker wasted no time attacking Ankalaev’s legs early, and if I were Walker, I would have spent the last three months in Thailand kicking banana trees on some Buakaw type-shit. Ankalaev’s majorest malfunction is his inability to defend low calf kicks. Jan had both Ankalaev’s legs looking like inverted Mech Warrior legs after the first round.   

Check that; Ankalaev’s majorest malfunction is his fight IQ. His fight IQ requires that he only attend half days at school. He’s bass ackwards. When he should wrestle (which is most of the time), he stands and bangs, and when he should strike, he presses up against the cage and attacks a lazy single. Magomed usually doesn’t start wrestling until it’s too late after he nearly gets KOd, or he’s crippled. He plays hard to get with the dub. He acts passive-aggressively towards the dub, pretending not to be interested in it until it’s too late and it has moved on. On the mat, Ankalaev is ground and pound over submission. Painfully so. In seventeen career dubs, including noine TKO/KOs, Ankalaev has the same number of subs as you and me, zero. If this guy learned a rear-naked choke, a Kurt Angle toe hold, or the Walls of Jericho, or some shit, he might be unstoppable. But he is an effective striker from the top position and would have won the belt against Jan had he taken Jan down any time before late in the third round. 

Ankalaev’s striking reminds me of Jared Allen’s; it’s just good enough to give him the confidence to stand and bang instead of grappling. Chicks dig the KO; I know, I know. Magomed has Lincoln the Vampire Slayer looks and sharp hands like stakes. He has straight, Original Recipe crispy hands and excellent rear leg round kicks. But he’s a Sadie Hawkins striker; you have to invite him to the dance. Ankalaev doesn’t like to make the first move and prefers to counter-strike a lot like Valentina Shevchenko. When he is forced to initiate, Ankalaev struggles to find a cohesive rhythm. It’s like he has to read the same paragraph over and over because he constantly loses his place. He is missing that elite striker flow. And speaking of Lincoln, Ankalaev has Lincoln's head movement. Too soon? Ankalaev’s head never deviates from the center line, and his only defense is retreating out of the pocket.   

For his career, Ankalaev is 17-1-2 and is 0-0-2 in his last two bouts. Fantasy-wise, Ankalaev averages three and a half SLpM with a career-high of seventy-eight and averages one takedown per fifteen minutes. Before the first fight, I thought Ankalaev would walk through Walker, but now I’m not so sure. Ankalaev could score a stoppage on the mat, but I think Johnny Walker’s unpredictability and circus strikes make him the better finishing threat. Ankalaev’s path to victory is on the mat, logging top control time and chipping away with strikes.   

Make Johnny Walker barrel-aged Johnny Walker a thing in 2024. I thought Jonny Darko was done-skis after Jamahal Hill turned him into Mickey Mouse in Fantasia. Ol’ Beethoven-ass. My man was conducting a twelve-piece orchestra after Hill landed that left hand. I figured he’d take up a DJ residency in Las Vegas, but instead, he came back and has gone 3-0-1 since that highlight reel L. Johnny has always reminded me of a huge-er Michel Pereira. Walker is a stand-up, stand-up guy who lacks fundamental techniques and relies mostly on home runs to plate runs. He’s like a pitcher without a fastball who throws nothing but curves and sliders. If you bust out the manual, all of Walker’s controls are special moves. 

X: Flying Knee 

A: Spinning backfist 

B: Wheel Kick 

Y: The Worm  

Johnny’s hands are like Neanderthal clubs. He’s out here hunting Woolly Mammoths with overhand rights and left hooks. But if Johnny isn’t wildin’ out, blitzing with wide bombs, he’s not doing much of anything. He doesn’t thrive in a traditional back-and-forth kickboxing match. Chaos is Walker’s best weapon, and he survives mostly on power in lieu of technique. The key for Walker against  Ankalaev will be leg kicks. In fact, I’d look into seeing if there was a way to replace my arms with extra legs so I could kick the shit outta Ankalaev’s legs twice as much. Outside of leg kicks, Walker needs to stay on his feet and to do that, he needs to stay away from the cage and force Ankalaev to score open mat takedowns. But I will say this: I think Walker's ground game might be a little underrated. 

Walker is 21-7 for his career with sixteen TKO/KOs and three subs. Dude is a Cromartie finisher. He doesn’t shoot blanks. When he wins, it’s almost always in the form of a finish. Johnny Donnie Brasco averages just below four SLpM with a high of noinety-two against Anthony Smith, a fight in which Walker beat Smith and an attempted murder charge levied by Smith at the same time. Walker’s Fantasy upside is a finish. A decision favors Ankalaev relocating the fight to the mat and riding out control time. Johnny Walker has to do some Johnny Walker shit and create a fight-ending sequence.   

Ankalaev is the massive (-500) favorite, and Walker is the live (+370) dog. I didn’t like how Ankalaev looked early in the first bout. I was catching Deja Vu from the Jan fight. If Walker can attack the legs early and often, I think he can defend takedowns and possibly score a finish on the feet. This might be the first put-my-money-where-my-mouf-isn't pick of 2024. We’re starting off the new year streaking. The main event winning streak is intact at two after Leon Edwards dominated Colby for twenty minutes. I don’t know why, but I will trust Ankalaev to get the fight to the mat and win rounds with control time. Magomed Ankalaev via decision. Put pick #1 of 2024 on wax. 

Props 

Ankalaev: TKO/KO (-225) Sub (+700) Dec (+450)  

Walker: TKO/KO (+700) Sub (+1800) Dec (+1400) 

Winner: Magomed Ankalaev | Method: Decision

Manel Kape (-275) vs. Matheus Nicolau (+220)

Kape: DK: $9k | Nicolau: DK: $7.2k

This is the sequel to an original you probably never knew existed. Manel “No” Kape, aka “Hot Sauce,” aka “The Professor,” is back and has become the boogeyman of the flyweight division. Fighters stay ducking Manel Kape like little people at a turnstile. The purpose of this fight against Matheus Nicolau will be to set the record straight about the first fight that Manel Kape won, yet it was Nicolau who got his hand raised. Valero robbery? Not quite, but all the big moments belonged to Kape. Nicolau is in his second stint in the UFC, and since his return in 2021, he has gone 4-1, with his only loss coming to the recent title challenger Brandon Royval. This is flashiness versus blue-collar power, and although the first matchup went the distance, I like the chances of the rematch ending before the final bell. 

Hit that “Starboy” by The Weeknd! Manel Kape is a mf’in star, boy! Kape might mess around and be the first fighter to win a fight via ankle break TKO. In between crispy, blinding combinations, Kape will bust out AI crossovers, and I ain’t talking artificial intelligence. He’ll bust out a no-look Magic Johnson dish in the lane and slip in a spinning backfist behind it. Kape turns a scrap in the Octagon into a pickup game at the Rucker. But it ain’t all just for show. He uses mock basketball crossovers and between-the-legs jukes as feints; he freezes you, catches you watching, and then bursts into quick hand attacks. Manel has some of the fastest hands in the division, so fast it almost looks like he’s not moving at all. This guy was the Rizin flyweight champion before making his UFC debut and was so highly touted that he served as a backup for a Moreno vs. Figueiredo title fight before ever stepping foot inside the Octagon.   

Manel Kape is at his best when he’s using footwork and slick head movement to hit angles like Dre and Snoop hitting switches. The problem is, throughout the fight, there are periods when he becomes flat-footed and stationary. For a guy as quick and nifty on the feet as Kape, he tends to get hit a lot. That’s because he tends to loiter in the pocket until mall security comes around to move him along, “Keep it moving, buddy.” I ain’t your buddy, guy! Also, Kape tends to hold his chin high up in the air like a snob and can be coaxed into fighting emotionally. In his last bout, Kape found himself in a Johnny Rico firefight surrounded by bugs against a debutante, Felipe Dos Santos. The only good bug is a dead bug. But why was a top contender fighting a debuting fighter? Because nobody wants to see this guy. His special move is the gazelle punch, aka the Roy Jones lead hook with the hands down to bait a fighter to come forward.   

“No” Kape is 19-6 for his career with eleven TKO/KOs and five subs and is on a four-fight dub streak after dropping two suspect decisions in his first two promotional bouts. Fantasy-wise, Kape averages over five SLpM to Nicolau’s just above three and a half. Kape landed a career-high one hundred twelve strikes in his most recent bout but usually hovers around the sixty significant strikes landed mark in a three-rounder. His upside is a finish on the feet; Nicolau is coming off a devastating first-round TKO loss, and all three of his career losses came via TKO/KO. Kape will have the speed advantage and is the overall more diverse striker.   

Matheus Nicolau is a little bomb thrower. He cracks like butt cheeks. Cracks like plumbers. Cracks like Hunter Bi... Nicolau is a man of few punches, a quality-over-quantity striker who relies on one shot to turn the tide of a fight. He kind of reminds me of a training mode Ilia Topuria on the feet. His right hand and left hook are bad for your health, and he’s excellent at strafing around the cage, keeping the opponent's feet moving, then stopping on a dime and unloading. But his major malfunction is that he ain’t ready for that Big Pun and Fat Joe Deep Cover ‘98 shit; he ain’t ready for war. “Ready for war, Joe. How you wanna blow the spot?” Nicolau is the type of dude to get in the pool and not get his hair wet. He’s the type to wear board shorts in the shower. The key to beating Nicolau is going straight 80’s Detroit Pistons on his ass and do him like Rodman and them did MJ back in the day. You gotta knock his ass down every time he gets the ball. Kick him when he’s down like he’s a cameraman on the sidelines.   

Technically, Nicolau lowers his head and squares his feet every time he wings his right hand and is vulnerable to up-the-middle counters such as knees and uppercuts. But Nicolau will have a power advantage over Kape and can catch Kape slippin’ any time Kape starts feeling himself like the Macarena and gets complacent. Nicolau is 19-3 for his career with five TKO/KOs and five subs. Since his return to the UFC, Nicolau’s highest striking total in a three-round bout is sixty-four, and although he has fight-ending power, he has only finished one fight in his last five.   

Manel Kape is the (-250) favorite, and Nicolau is the (+200) live dog. Manel Kape tends to play around too much on that Anderson Silva vs Chris Weidman-type shit. He’s flashy at the risk of being careless, and it only takes one shot from Nicolau to end the fight. Nicolau will be a solid low-tier Fantasy option with a high upside, but he will have to adjust his output or run the risk of falling behind on the scorecards. That being said, I think Kape is the bigger finishing threat and has more at stake in this fight. He could be looking at a possible title fight/title eliminator with a win. Manel Kape via decision. On wax. 

Props 

Kape: TKO/KO (+165) Sub (+900) Dec (+165)  

Nicolau: TKO/KO (+1400) Sub (+1200) Dec (+350) 

Winner: Manel Kape | Method: Decision

Jim Miller (-140) vs. Gabriel Benitez (+115)

Miller: DK: $8.2k | Benitez: DK:$8k

Still J.I.M. “Earthworm” Jim Miller is back. Back? This mf literally never left. This guy is a hermit in the Octagon and will be making his forty-third UFC appearance. And although he moves a little gingerly and requires the application of Icy Hot on his joints and Epson salt bath plunges between rounds, he’s still winning fights. He still has that veiny Quagmire left hand and is 4-1 in his last five bouts. When it comes to gatekeeping, Jim Miller is the CEO at the Bridge of Death. Jim Miller is the GOAT gatekeeper in the promotion, and that term isn’t a pejorative. Gatekeeping is synonymous with longevity, and nobody has achieved that like Jim Miller. This time around, Miller will be up against the Mandalorian, Gabriel Benitez, a fellow mainstay in the promotion since 2015. This is a battle of old heads scrapping like in the mosh pit at a Grateful Dead concert and should be a crunchy little banger. 

In his last bout, Miller fought a professional dog walker on short notice and left him looking peaceful on the mat like a monk meditating, complete with the little finger cymbals, “Oooooooohmmm.” Jimmy has the Just for Men touch of gray beard, and the drapes were free when he bought the curtains, but don’t let that fool you like it did that other poor bass turd. Jim still has deadly power in his left hand and a sneaky left high kick. It’s like the left side of his body was dipped in adamantium. Over the years, Miller’s stand-up style has changed from a technical kickboxer into a blitzer who engages with intermittent two to three-punch combos, but he’s still just as effective. He has lost some command of his off-speed pitches, but he still has some heat on his fastball. To me, the most impressive thing about Jim Miller is that he hasn’t been finished in eleven fights, dating back to 2018, and that came to the former champ, Charles Oliveira. Jim Miller stays competitive. 

The key for Miller against Gabriel Benitez will be Miller’s ground game. He can stand and bang with anyone, but Jim Miller has always been a grappler first in my eyes. Don’t let that time he nearly bit off his tongue when he got caught in a Nate Diaz guillotine fool you; Jim Miller is a slick grappler with noineteen career submissions. Miller averages under three SLpM, but he also averages over one and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes and nearly two sub-attempts. His Fantasy upside won’t be in strikes landed, but rather, it will be in control time and a possible submission (guillotine) if he can get Benitez to the mat. 

In addition to looking like the Mandalorian (Free Gina Carano!), Gabriel Benitez reminds me of a third-of-the-month, broke Chris Gutierrez. Like a broke-ass Sexual Chocolate. His Sherdog record looks like the Eagle's last six games. Benitez has lost to every solid fighter he has faced, and Charlie Antiveros and Justin Jaynes ain’t walking back through that door anytime soon. But this is a new year, and my resolution was to be less petty. The positive is that Benitez is coming off a dub, albeit against a Fisher-Price Bruce Leeroy. But a dub is a dub, and you never apologize for one. Now that I think about it, this fight will be like when you and your homie use the same fighter while playing Mortal Kombat. Benitez has the exact same weapons as Jim Miller. Benitez is also a southpaw with a penchant for throwing rear-hand attacks and is especially good at attacking the legs. Benitez makes up for a lack of physical attributes with his Mexican boxer mentality. This guy goes for it even when he’s at a disadvantage. He was taking it to David Onama two fights ago before Onama’s speed caught up to Benitez against the cage.   

For his career, Gabriel Benitez is 23-10 with noine TKO/KOs and ten subs. Benitez will be the higher output striker, averaging just below five SLpM, and a stand-up firefight favors Benitez’s aggression. Benitez has excellent submissions, but none came in any of his thirteen career UFC dubs. Benitez needs to keep the fight standing and use his slightly better speed and technical abilities to overwhelm Miller with pace and output. His last three wins all came via TKO/KO, and I think he has more ways to finish the fight on the feet than Miller.   

This one is a classic Vegas pick ‘em with Miller returning (-115) and Benitez returning (-105). I think the play for both fighters is a decision. Both can finish the fight on the feet, but Miller doubles as a submission threat and is historically more difficult to finish than Benitez. I’d give Miller a slightly better chance of scoring a finish. This is the first complete toss-up of 2024. I’ve gone back and forth on this one, but Jim has multiple paths to victory. Give me Jim Miller via decision. On wax. 

 Props 

Miller: TKO/KO (+275) Sub (+330) Dec (+450)  

Benitez: TKO/KO (+215) Sub (+1200) Dec (+500) 

Winner: Jim Miller | Method: Decision

Ricky Simon (-180) vs. Mario Bautista (+150)

Simon: DK: $8.6k | Bautista: DK: $7.6k

This is another matchup of guys with nearly identical skill sets. Mario Bautista is the guy Cody Garbrandt recently ducked. Cue the Wu-Tang “Duck Seazon.” Bautista has no holes in his game like Christmas underoos and is one of, if not the most, underrated guy in the bantamweight division. I don’t think his upside is title-challenging, but he’s a tough out for anyone ranked or unranked. And Ricky Simon is the only guy who can out-Merab Merab. Don’t make Ricky Pop the Trunk. Simon rocks the Yelawolf mullet-hawk, and you never mess with someone rocking a mullet-hawk. Especially never mess with dudes rocking a mullet-hawk from Washington. Dudes from Washington with mullets aren’t quite right. It might be because of a vitamin D deficiency and a lack of exposure to sunlight, but despite what Offspring says, The Kids Aren’t Alright. Anywho, this is a banger and should be a true mixed martial arts fight.   

Super Mario Bautista is a sleeper. He debuted against Cory Sandhagen in 2019, and every path to victory against this guy is like a Contra level. He’s like fighting the final boss at the end of every level. Fighting Mario Bautista is like navigating through a corn maze with pitfalls around every corner. It’s like Vietnam boobie traps hanging from trees and attached to grenades. Or a swinging log like the one Arnold landed on the Predator. There’s no easy path against Bautista. He can wrestle, strike, and he is grimy in the clinch. On the feet, Bautista is the master of range; he can fight inside, outside, and has a slick midrange game like Brandon Ingram. But I think Bautista’s specialty is in clinch, grinding opponents into shake and rolling them up with twisted ends like 1800s mustaches. He uses constant pressure to stay in your chest like pacemakers and never gives you a chance to get comfortable.  

On the mat, Bautista is excellent at forcing scrambles from his back and not accepting the bottom position. That will be the key against Ricky Simon. Simon will likely look to get back to doing what he does best, wrestling, after getting stranded on the feet against Song Yadong. Bautista also has excellent offensive wrestling/grappling and averages over two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. The problem is Ricky Simon averages nearly six. Although Bautista can wrestle, I like his chances more on the feet. When Bautista gets taken down (and he will), he has to stay active from the bottom and not spend any time in the closed guard. His advantage is his superior output on the feet, averaging nearly five and a half SLpM to Simon’s three. 

If Bautista is Super Mario, Ricky Simon is fookin’ Wario. Simon is the mad scientist version of Mario. Speaking of Washington, Simon rocks that Nirvana grunge, and his right hand cracks like a shotgun. People stay sleeping on Ricky’s hands like comas. There’s no doubt Ricky is a wrestler first and foremost, but his hands have been steadily improving. He dropped the undefeated (at the time) Jack Shore and secured the classic club-and-sub, and before that, Simon KO’d Raphael Assuncao. Simon’s secret weapon on the feet is Steffi Graf tennis grunts. He grunts with every strike and then starts grunt-feinting. Fake grunts with nothing behind them. Opponents get frozen like Dwayne Haskins in the headlights and don’t know what’s coming. Simon is the classic wrestler striker with basic 1s, 1-2s, 2-3's, and not much else, but he commits to every punch and never stops pressuring.   

But Simon has special wrestling and cardio. He weaponizes cardio and pace like Merab. He’s the only guy who can push a similar pace. Simon has a high of fourteen takedowns in a single fight and landed seven three times. If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again. The key to MMA wrestling is chain wrestling and staying committed. Most guys can shake off two or three takedowns but not four or five and to infinity and beyond. Simon’s path to victory is shooting volume takedowns and securing top control. Bautista is a good scrambler, but he has a fifty-six percent takedown defense. Simon can out-position Bautista from the top while chipping away with ground and pound.   

Simon is the (-170) favorite, and Bautista is the (+145) live dog. Bautista can win this fight on the feet and in the clinch if he can force stretches on the feet. If Simon hits the takedown wall as he did in the Yadong fight, Bautista’s output will cause Simon problems and could steal rounds. I think the play for both guys is a decision. Both are well-rounded with similar skill sets and hard to finish. But I think Simon can record enough top control to win close rounds. Ricky Simon via decision. Put that ish on wax. 

Props 

Simon: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+500) Dec (+140)  

Bautista: TKO/KO (+600) Sub (+800) Dec (+350) 

Winner: Ricky Simon | Method: Decision

Phil Hawes (+110) vs. Brunno Ferreira (-130)

Hawes: DK: $7.9k | Ferreira: DK:$8.3k

Phil Hawes is the Shakespeare of MMA. When Phil Hawes goes out, he goes out like a god in the Iliad and recites a poetic monologue on the way down. 1000 Ways to Die, the Phil Hawes Special. In his last bout, Phil Hawes got hit with a left hand and unraveled like an original 18th century hand woven tapestry.  

“You mean this carpet?” 

He looked like a solar-powered robot during an eclipse. Don’t let the 1-3 record with three first-round losses by TKO/KO in his last four bouts fool you; Phil Hawes is still a literal monster, everything nightmares when you were ten are made of. He’s the result of feeding Kevin Randleman after midnight. But Hawes struggles to fight with a lead and tends to turn into a Flat Earther’s Exhibit A because he falls off the face of it after getting out to fast starts. Phil reminds me of somebody that I used to know on some Gotye-shit. Hawes came into the game as a wrestler, and as most do, he turned into a boxer and traded in the Carolla that got him to the dance. His hands are infinitely better since his days on the Ultimate Fighter and the Contender Series in 2017, but he still lacks the natural swag of a true boxer. But over the years, he has developed a filthy rotten jab and mushroom cloud power. But-but, he has also developed a hair trigger chin, a trip wire chin. A chin made of paper mache. His chin is a fist magnet.   

The play for Phil Hawes against Brunno Ferreira is a first-round finish. Warning: not even Dale Earnheardt can go from 100 to zero quicker than Phil Hawes. He might start mashing on Brunno early but don’t start celebrating until the ref raises his hand. Hawes is 12-5 with eight TKO/KOs and two subs and averages five and a half SLpM. Most of his significant strikes are front-loaded because 1) Hawes's fights don’t tend to last very long, and 2) he gases like someone who only puts five dollars on pump three.   

Brunno Ferreira debuted with a first-round KO of one of my favorite current fighters, Brazilian Deebo Gregory Rodrigues, and then returned the favor in his sophomore appearance against Nursulton Ruziboev. Ferreira’s last five and eight of his last noine fights ended in the first round, and he only lost one. He reminds me of a New Year’s Resolution Paulo Costa. There’s no problem on earth that throwing an overhand bomb can’t solve. He has no touch on his strikes; everything he throws is a Craig brick. Overall, Brunno is a swinger, not a striker, and I ain’t talking Billy Bob and Angelina. Windmills and I ain’t talking Don Quixote. I’m talking NBA on-fire dunks from half-court. Brunno lacks fundamentals, from his stance to the spelling of his name, and holds his chin up in the air like he’s drowning. Phil Hawes will be the more disciplined, technical, and traditional striker, but Ferreira makes up for all that with break-neck arm angles and wild blitzes like #11 with a star on his helmet.   

Brunno is 10-1 with a one hundred percent finishing rate, including seven TKO/KOs and three subs. F**k punching stats, this guy doesn’t know a second round from the ass end of a human centipede. Like Phil Hawes, the play for Ferreira is a first-round finish, likely a TKO/KO. This will be the battle of straight punches versus looping wide punches. Usually, that matchup favors straight punches, but none of that matters when you only need one punch, like Nas only needs one mic.   

Ferreira is the (-125) favorite, and “Uncle” Phil Hawes is the slight (+105) dog. Another classic toss-up. I don’t think Ferreira is very good, and I don’t trust Phil any further than Lizzo can jog. But I think I don’t trust Phil “Ol” Hawe’s chin more. I ain’t your Ol Hawes, chief. Brunno Ferreira via TKO, round one. Wax on, wax off.

Props 

Hawes: TKO/KO (+165) Sub (+900) Dec (+1000)  

Ferreira: TKO/KO (+110) Sub (+600) Dec (+1400) 

Winner: Brunno Ferreira | Method: TKO Rd.1

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Phil Hawes ($7.9k): “Uncle” Phil Hawes has the best chance of scoring a finish within the $7k salary range. Every fight, every exchange is a complete coin flip with this guy. He will be the more technical fighter against Brunno Ferreira, and he will have extra motivation; he has lost three of his last four and is in desperate need of a dub, or he will find himself working at Phil’s BBQ pulling pork after this one. The chances of this one seeing a second round are minimal. Phil’s upside is a possible first-round finish, but the downside is a possible first-round finished. This fight will be like playing Russian Roulette with only one chamber empty. One of these guys will be hooked up to the CPAP machine after this one, and there is a good chance it will be Brunno Ferreira if Hawes can work behind his jab and beat the wide Brunno Ferreira punches down the middle.   

Mario Bautista ($7.6k): Mario Bautista averages the most SLpM (nearly five and a half) of any other $7k option. His last fight was against Da’Mon Blackshear, who had a similar game plan as Ricky Simon, wrestling. Blackshear landed four out of seven takedowns, but Bautista still managed to get back to his feet repeatedly and landed eighty significant strikes on his way to a decision dub. Granted, Ricky Simon has much better wrestling and top control than Blackshear, but Mario can have similar success. On the feet, he is the more diverse striker with superior output. On the feet, he can push the pace, and on the mat, he can force scrambles and even threaten with his own offensive wrestling. Not only can he steal this fight, but at the very least, he can land moderate significant strikes even in a loss and keep your Fantasy team afloat with some midrange points.   

Gaston Bolanos ($7.1k): Gaston Bolanos has extensive professional Muay Thai experience, and noine of his ten career MMA came under the Bellator banner. His specialty is spinning shit with an emphasis on backfists. He has excellent timing on spinning counters and tends to land them like fundamental strikes. His opponent, Marcus McGhee, was a 2023 sleeper who made his debut on short notice and scored an upset submission dub over Journey Newson. I still don’t know how good McGhee is, but this has a chance to be an undercover stand-up banger chock-full of 50/50 exchanges. Six of Bolanos’s seven career dubs came via TKO/KO, and he will have plenty of opportunities to set off a fight-ending sequence. Bolanos managed to land sixty-three significant strikes in his debut against Aaron Phillips, who landed three takedowns against Bolanos. Bolanos showed urgency scrambling back to his feet, which bodes well if McGhee decides to mix in some wrestling. I like the chances of this fight producing a finish, and there’s no reason Bolanos can’t be the one getting his hand raised at its conclusion. 

$6k Clearance Rack

Johnny Walker (6.8k): I thought Johnny was fighting a smart fight before the first fight against Ankalaev was called off due to an illegal knee. If I had some Randy March wheelbarrow cajones, I would have picked Walker to win this scrap. I think it will be a close contest, and I have been gaining more confidence in Walker’s ground game over his last couple of fights. I also don’t have much faith that Ankalaev will stick to the script and get this fight to the mat ASAP. He plays too fookin’ much and has to nearly get KO’d before he decides to wrestle. If he pulls that same shit against Johnny, it will be Ankalaev hyping the crowd like Skrillex on his descent to the mat. Also, Johnny came out attacking Ankalaev’s prosthetic legs, and if he can recreate that success, he can hobble Ankalaev and make securing takedowns very difficult. Johnny’s upside is always a finish, as he has noineteen finishes in twenty-one career dubs.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Taylor Lapilus (+215): I love the Basharat brothers, but I think Farid is the weak link between the two. Basharat has excellent wrestling/grappling and tight, technical striking, but he’s not quite as dominant as his brother Javid. Taylor Lapilus has excellent wrestling/grappling, too. Although I give Farid the edge, Lapilus stuffed noine of eleven takedowns in his debut and can keep this fight standing where it is a complete toss-up. Lapuilus has long, straight punches and managed to land eighty-four significant strikes in his debut against a guy who constantly level changed. This has split decision written all over it, like phone numbers offering illicit activities written on a Valero bathroom stall.   

Gabriel Benitez (+115): Benitez may close near even money, but, for the time being, he is a steal at plus money against “Earthworm” Jim Miller. I picked Miller to win, but I’ll get nervous if Jim can't use some of his grappling. If this stays standing, Benitez has a little more speed and nasty leg kicks that can give him the edge. If this fight took place during Miller’s prime, this would end with Miller running up the score with a last-second meaningless touchdown, like Jameis Winston calling off the victory formation on the one-yard line. But Miller isn’t in his prime, and even though he remains competitive, he has shown diminishing physical attributes and can get got on his feet.   

Matheus Nicolau (+220): This is a fight Nicolau already won. Yeah, I thought Kape won the first matchup, but regardless, it was close. Nicolau switched it up and used a couple of takedowns to edge out close rounds. He also has an equalizer in his right hand. Nicolau’s biggest malfunction is that he doesn’t take enough risks and likes to engage on his own terms. But his constant circular movement makes it hard for opponents to set their feet and attack. Also, Manle Kape is a showboater. He’s about putting on an entertaining show as much as he is securing the dub. Kape often gets reckless and exits the pocket passively, and that’s when Nicolau can land a fight-changing bomb. 

Pick ‘Em 

Andrei Arlovski (+445) vs. Waldo Acosta (-650) 

Winner: Waldo Acosta 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Matthew Semelsberger (-130) vs. Preston Parsons (+110) 

Winner: Matthew Semelsberger 

Method: TKO Rd.1 

Marcus McGhee (-260) vs. Gaston Bolanos (+210) 

Winner: Marcus McGhee 

Method: Decision 

Farid Basharat (-275) vs. Taylor Lapilus (+215) 

Winner: Farid Basharat 

Method: Decision 

Westin Wilson (+575) vs. Jean Silva (-900) 

Winner: Jean Silva 

Method: Decision 

Nikolas Motta (+260) vs. Tom Nolan (-325) 

Winner: Tom Nolan 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Joshua Van (-240) vs. Felipe Bunes (+195) 

Winner: Joshua Van 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy