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Weekly Knockout (UFC) - Fight Night Barboza vs. Murphy
May 18th UFC Cheat Sheet DFS & Pick'Em Picks
Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer
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At first, when the bell started ringing, the gravedigger paid it no mind. They rang all the time – usually just a rat or some other small varmint brushing against it or getting tangled in the thin fishing line. But this time, it kept ringing, even taking on a familiar musical cadence that he couldn’t quite put his finger on. The old gravedigger shot a glance across the graveyard, but the thick fog blanketing the ground made it impossible to make out anything except for a large headstone here and there.
Despite thinking better of it, his feet carried him toward the dinging, the only sound, it seemed, in existence that hollow night. The fog parted around his legs like a curious crowd making way for a figure of mythical stature. Then he saw it. It was the grave he had no sooner than a few minutes ago finished shoveling the last heap of fresh dirt on top of, making sure to tamp down the mound tightly with the broad side of his shovel.
Loose. Taught. Loose. Taught.
It reminded him of his younger years when he spent his days wading the river, fly fishing, waiting hours for a gentle tug on his line. But this was the last place he expected to catch a bite.
His hands and feet took to working while his mind conjured images from every zombie movie he had ever seen – a hand suddenly bursting through the soft earth, clawing, desperate for purchase. Before he knew it, mounds of dirt piled high on either side of the grave, and he stood on top of the wooden coffin.
The dinging stopped.
Using a small crowbar he kept on his tool belt, he pried and pried until the lid finally came free. The inside of the lid was gouged with long striations, and the wood that had been scraped away littered the body as if it were covered with pencil shavings. The man, clad in a sharp Men’s Warehouse three-piece suit, remained peacefully at rest, his hands, their fingertips bloody, still lay crossed against his chest.
Had he been tripping? Stick to the Sativa; never smoke Indica before work – he had broken his own rule. Now he was imagining shit and found himself knee-deep in a grave, having exhumed a body without a court order. He better get this shit covered up before Tom showed up for the morning shift and could bear witness.
But the lid resisted as he tried to place it back on. Two hands held it up. Then, he was scrambling out of the grave. Scooting on his ass, kicking at the earth in a desperate attempt to get away. The body sat up. It was like the f**king Undertaker at WrestleMania. The man was still alive! He turned his head to look at the gravedigger, but he was gone.
Main Card
Edson Barboza (+125) vs. Lerone Murphy (-150)
Barboza: DK: $7.7k | Murphy: DK:$8.5k
Edson Barboza was dead, legally declared, after the first round against Sodiq Yusuff. His family had already started collecting his life insurance payout. Barboza spent the better part of the first five minutes Patrick Swayze Dirty Dancing to “Time of My Life.” He went straight Travolta Grease Lightning on ‘em. He went straight Turbo and Ozone on ‘em. Barboza looked like Turbo dancing with the broom. But Yusuff left Barboza for dead in the middle of the Nevada desert for the carrion to feast upon with a single breath left in his lungs. Covered in buzzard shit, Barboza managed to crawl back to civilization and answer the bell for the second round. Then Barboza went straight Count of Monte Cristo and exacted revenge on Yusuff, stealing a decision dub from the iron-clad jaws of defeat.
I watched in horror after that first round because, of course, I had picked Sodiq Yusuff to win the fight. Yusuff picked up the check, opened doors, brought a bouquet of roses, and still couldn’t close the fookin’ deal that night. It was clear after the first round that Barboza was going to win that fight. Dog? Even after fifteen years in the promotion and countless tours in war-torn areas around the world, Barboza still has a whole pack of Cerberus three-headed dogs in him. Even though he looks like beef jerky, dehydrated for forty-eight hours, at 145, he also still has his blinding hand speed. His hands are still faster than life. He’s got that blink-and-you're-40-years-old hand speed. That fight against Yusuff (after the first round) was how Jose Aldo looked two weeks ago against Jonathan Martinez. They are two guys whose physical attributes have thumbed their noses at Father Time.
Barboza remains one of the scariest strikers in the game. A fighter’s worst nightmare is getting got the way Terry Etim got got, with a spinning wheel kick that left him standing at attention like the Queen’s Guard. That remains a top-three KO of all time. Barboza throws spinning attacks with the efficiency of a jab. For most fighters, landing a spinning wheel kick is like hitting for the cycle; for Barboza, it’s like hitting a single. His basic controls, X/Y/B/A, are all spinning attacks. And as Joe Rogan has said at least one thousand times, Barboza’s switch-step left round kick is the fastest the world has ever known.
But Barboza’s Achilles heel is his ground game. He’s the only Brazilian in the world who can’t grapple. He’s like a fish that can’t swim – like an emu or an ostrich, a bird that can’t fly. On the mat, he’s the Manning brother who couldn’t play football. The key to beating the up-and-coming Lerone Murphy will be the same as in any fight, staying on his feet. Murphy is far from a Khabib or Makhachev when it comes to wrestling, but he’s strong and has excellent timing. Also, if you go into a fight with a slight cough, you can take Barboza down. Any disturbance of the air around him will knock him down. Barboza is 24-11 with fourteen TKO/KOs and one sub and is riding a two-fight dub streak. He also averages north of four SLpM to Murphy’s three and a half.
This is a classic gatekeeper, passing-of-the-torch matchup. Lerone Murphy reminds me of Layaway Leon Edwards. Murphy is zoomed-in-too-far Leon. I don’t know what to make of Murphy; he looks like a physical specimen, a Universal Soldier created in a black ops military site, but his physical attributes don’t quite match. His hands look kind of slow. He has that driving-to-Aspen-on-a-moped hand speed, and his movement is rather stiff.
Overall, he’s a sound technical striker, but he’s missing something. He’s a private school striker - rocks a little plaid uniform with a bow tie. He doesn’t break any rules; he maintains strict adherence to the status quo on the feet. He’s a Grey Poupon striker, an upper-class snobby striker who needs to maintain order and civility on the feet. He ain’t built for that Kendrick and Drake back-and-forth firefight. Lerone’s hands get that DJ Khaled treatment; Murphy has people in his entourage feed him so his hands won’t get dirty. He’s the guy who won’t turn right against a red light – just doesn’t take enough risks on the feet unless he’s blitzing to close the distance for a takedown.
So far in his career, Murphy has been just good enough. He seems to land takedowns at the right moments to steal rounds/fights. His path to victory will be doing everything possible to avoid a twenty-five-minute kickboxing match. Not that he can’t beat Barboza on the feet. Murphy isn’t a TLC scrub by any means, but Barboza is more punishing damage-wise. Lerone needs to make this an MMA fight and try to slow down Barboza by making him defend takedowns and burn energy getting back to his feet. Last week, Chase Hooper vs. Viacheslav Borshchev showed how the threat of the takedown can enhance a fighter’s striking. The last thing you expected in that fight was for Hooper to drop Borshchev on the feet. Murphy is 13-0 for his career with seven TKO/KOs, including 5-0-1 in the UFC.
Murphy is the (-155) favorite, and Barboza is the (+130) live-ass dog. I think Murphy has to take the scenic route to victory and control the top position and stay out of the way of Barboza’s spinning shit for the entire five rounds. Whereas Barboza can finish the fight or win by controlling the stand-up for the duration. There’s no doubt that Barboza is the more dangerous fighter and the bigger finishing threat. Barboza was the dog in each of his last two bouts against Yusuff and Billy Quarantillo, and except for the last two weeks, dogs have shown out this year in main events. Fantasy-wise, for the price, Barboza has a massive upside. Against Yusuff, he landed one hundred sixty-four significant strikes, and this fight could look similar if Barboza can stay on his feet.
Oh, we really streaking meow, homies! The main event dub streak sits at three after Derrick Lewis’ nuts melted down once again after he donkey-punched the shit out of Rodrigo Nascimento on his way to his UFC record fifteenth TKO/KO dub. This one has me worried. Check that. Edson Barboza’s takedown defense and ground game have me worried. But there’s just too much value for him as a dog for me to pass him up. Edson Barboza via TKO, round four. Put it on wax.
Props
Barboza: TKO/KO (+250) Sub (+2000) Dec (+450)
Murphy: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+1400) Dec (+165)
Winner: Edson Barboza | Method: TKO Rd.4
Khaos Williams (-130) vs. Carlston Harris (+110)
Khaos: DK: $8.2k | Harris: DK: $8k
Bust out the ponchos and goloshes. There’s a one hunnid percent chance of meteor showers whenever Khaos Williams fights. The only fight name better than Khaos Williams is Fighty McFighterson. This dude Khaos will throw on a little foil Spartacus helmet, turn on the water hose in his front yard, and watch that MF slowly flood the entire world. Professor Khoas, wherever he goes, destruction follows. But every supervillain has a weakness, and Carlston Harris is that. This is a classic, strict striker vs. wrestler matchup. Khaos Williams is allergic to the mat, and Carlston Harris looks pained on his feet like he belongs on My 600-lb Life. But whether on the feet or the mat, this should be a low-key little style-banger.
Khaos Williams’ power is life-altering. When he’s not fighting, Khaos is a Shaman deep in the Amazon forest. People make the pilgrimage to get KO’d by Khaos because it is said to induce “ego death,” the complete psychological separation from one’s ego, a truly once-in-a-lifetime experience. Khaos has toad-licking power. This guy will hit you with a right hand, and you’ll wake up in an ‘87 Firebird with the King of Jupiter’s daughter sitting shotty as you cruise the Milky Way Highway with the top down. This guy will have you straight cheesing like Kenny. Khaos is all power everything, and very little anything else. He doesn’t funk with any of that fancy footwork shit or bother wasting energy bobbing and weaving because all that takes seconds away from time spent punching faces. His game plan in every fight is public knowledge, no FOIA request needed; he’s coming out swinging from bell to bell.
But Khaos’ striking has more holes in it than Oscar De La Hoya's lingerie. His striking is so stiff it could pass Sergeant Hartman’s inspection. But his major malfunctions are his lack of head movement and hand position when he strikes. Every time he engages with combinations, his hands fall to his waist at freefall speeds, and he keeps his chin at full mast even when a president dies. His chin is the only defensive measure Khaos takes while exchanging on the feet. Khaos is the only fighter who records significant strikes when you hit him. Landing on his chin causes more damage than most fighters landing a head kick. This guy is a dragster on an Indy car course, just flooring it in a straight line to the checkered flag.
Khaos is 14-3 in his career with seven TKO/KOs and one sub and has won three of his last four. He will be the higher output striker, averaging over five and a half SLpM to Carlston Harris’s just under three. The key for Khaos will be dominating the center of the Octagon and keeping his back off the cage where Harris can get hold of him and drag him to the mat. You can lure Harris into a striking matchup if you can thwart some of his early takedowns. In his last bout, Khaos landed one hundred thirty significant strikes, the highest total of his career.
Carlston Harris is the Danny Almonte of the UFC, the sixteen-year-old who once larped as a twelve-year-old and dominated the Little League World Series. Harris is thirty-six years old but looks like he’s sixty-four. His face looks weathered like the interior of Grammy’s station wagon. My man has stains on him, like an old couch left on the corner with a “Free” sign attached. He’s got glass rings on him from years of people not using a coaster. This guy had old man’s strength before his tenth birthday. On the feet, he’s not much to look at. His best attribute is that he’s longer than Pinochio’s nose while reading the nightly news. He slap boxes more than he box-boxes. Harris is out here throwing Power Slap combinations, bringing open hands to a fistfight. His hands are sloppy drunks falling over themselves and embarrassing him in the morning. But he gets on his Ri-Ri shit, shines like a diamond on the mat.
When Harris decides to get the fight to the mat, he jumps on your neck like a lioness bringing down a caribou for her cubs. He goes straight Nat Geo in the Saharra when he starts to wrestle. And once he gets you down, Harris glides on the mat like a shark in the ocean. Harris is a good mixture of damage, submissions, and position from the top. He constantly chips away at you with ground and pound to soften you up while hunting for head-and-arm chokes like Mossy Oak and Mossbergs. He’s a human nail file on the mat who will grind you out until you make a mistake and expose your neck. Harris is 19-5 for his career with five TKO/KOs and six subs and is currently riding a two-fight dub streak with an overall UFC record of 4-1. Although his striking output is rather low, he supplements it by averaging over two takedowns per fifteen minutes. His value is in takedowns and top control, with the upside of a late submission.
I was surprised to see Khaos as the (-130) favorite and Harris as the (+110) slight live-ass dog. Khaos has never been finished in his career, but Harris could be the first to pull it off if he can get Khaos to the mat. That won’t be easy, though. Khaos has an eighty percent takedown defense. But Harris is coming off a submission dub against another wild power striker, Jeremiah Wells. Wells dominated for two and a half rounds before Harris latched on to an anaconda choke out of nowhere and finished the fight. That being said, Harris has been finished by TKO/KO twice in his career, and I would give the slight finishing advantage to Khaos. But I love the value of Harris. Give me the dog. Carlston Harris via D’arce choke, round three. On wax.
Props
Khaos: TKO/KO (+130) Sub (+1600) Dec (+550)
Harris: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+450) Dec (+350)
Winner: Carlston Harris | Method: D’arce Choke Rd.3
Adrian Yanez (-375) vs. Vinicius Salvador (+290)
Yanez: DK: $9.3k | Salvador: DK:$6.9k
Cue that “Lose Yourself.” Snap back to reality. Oh! There goes gravity! Adrian Yanez skyrocketed, winning five straight fights to start his UFC career. But he has since fallen on harsh times like the Dust Bowl in the ‘30s. My man only got to fight with the ñ on his name once before Jonathan Martinez knocked it off. Yanez was fast-tracked to the top of the division, but after two straight violent losses, the UFC is pumping the brakes and giving him a much-needed step down in competition. But don’t get to thinking Yanez’s opponent, Vinicius Salvador, is some kind of TLC scrub. Dude is a crafty daredevil striker who will cause Yanez all kinds of problems on the feet, and this should turn out to be a crunchy little striker’s delight.
The last time we saw Adrian Yanez, he was cruising around with colostomy bags hooked up to his legs because they got the shit kicked out of them. They had to have a closed casket ceremony for Yanez’s legs after the Jonathan Martinez fight. They had to cremate his legs, and now he wears them around his neck in a little locket-urn. He collected a life insurance policy on his legs after the J-Mart fight. I’m expecting him to step into the Octagon against Vinicius Salvador looking like Kenny Smith. “Cot dammit, Kenny!” Speaking of Kenny, Yanez’s legs died more times than Kenny McCormick and had little rats crawling all over them. After what Martinez did to him, this will be Yanez’s debut in the Paralympic division. But all that is old shit; Yanez left his legs in Las Vegas on some Tony Bennett shit and is ready to move on.
Yanez still has Paul Walker original recipe crispy hands. “Yo” Adrian Yanez has some of the shortest strikes in the game, making him a formidable firefighter in the pocket. When he’s at his best, Yanez has nifty slips & rips in the pocket with the hand speed to get to third and fourth-level strikes. He will start combinations to the body and end them at the head and vice versa. His hands are scalpels, and he’ll slice you open so quickly that when your blood spills, it’s still blue. But his major malfunction is that he was diagnosed with Cody Garbrandt syndrome. Hit him a couple times, and Yanez’s fundamentals go out the window. Defense wins championships, but when Yanez gets hit, he plays defense like James Harden on the Rockets, engaging in reckless 50/50 exchanges with his chin held smugly in the air. Yanez gets hit and immediately loses his mind and all his training.
If Yanez can stay within himself and maintain his boxing mentality while avoiding the brawler mentality, he will win this fight. He is a slicker, faster striker than Salvador. Yanez is 16-5 for his career with ten TKO/KOs and two subs. This will be a high-output affair. Yanez averages over six SLpM to Salvador’s five and a half. Fantasy-wise, you can’t go wrong with either guy. Both will engage with combinations for fifteen minutes or until one is face down on the canvas. I think Yanez has a better chance of finishing the fight, but his chin has been damaged like a student driver car in recent bouts.
Vinicius Salvador has that funk like blue cheese. He’s funky like your auntie’s toes. This guy fights like he’s driving a rental car – one hunnid ten on the dash with the governor working overtime. He’s a defensive atheist who protects himself with punches. His hands have more volume than Troy Polamalu’s hair. More importantly, he remembers the fatality combination every time; he’s fourteen for fourteen. He has thirteen career TKO/KOs and one sub in fourteen career wins. He’s a Cromartie finisher. He engages with low hands and half-price Dustin Poirier shovel hooks from his waist. Salvador has those lowrider hands. It sounds like the intro of Chronic 2001 when Salvador starts throwing hands.
But watching Salvador fight is like watching those Instagram videos of guys hanging off the sides of skyscrapers. You stay puckered up, watertight, for the entire fifteen minutes because he can get got at any moment. He only uses “pulls” to avoid punches, and those can easily be defeated with feints and double jabs. Also, he leaves his body wide open every time he pulls his head back to avoid a strike. Salvador is 14-6 for his career and has gone 0-2 since earning a contract on the Contender Series. He has to make this fight look like the fight that punched his ticket to the big show. Salvador will have to take risks and try to draw Yanez into another firefight and let the chips fall where they may.
Yanez will be the (-350) favorite, and Salvador will be the (+275) mangy-ass dog. This fight has the feel of a major league vet serving a minor league stint amid a slump to find his stroke again. This should be a Yanez dub. This should be a Yanez TKO/KO. But where is his mental game after two trouncings? Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez have been locked in a bitter custody battle after they both son’d Yanez. Is there any value for Salvador? Yes. But only if he can make it to the final bell. Even in a loss, he landed nearly noinety strikes in his last bout, and he can put up similar numbers in what should be a strictly stand-up bout. I should feel more confident than I do, but here goes: Adrain Yanez via TKO, round two. Put it on wax.
Props
Yanez: TKO/KO (-115) Sub (+900) Dec (+250)
Salvador: TKO/KO (+600) Sub (+2500) Dec (+750)
Winner: Adrian Yanez | Method: TKO Rd.2
Angela Hill (-140) vs. Luana Pinheiro (+115)
Hill: DK: $8.3k | Pinheiro: DK: $7.9k
Angela Hill was the original Valero victim, held hostage in a handicap stall with Ryan Lochte tied up while three NSAC judges wearing dead president masks (Nixon, JFK, and Bill) shook her down at gunpoint for her dub against Michelle Waterson. Cue that Dead Prez “Hell Yeah!” Hell yeah, Angela Hill is a San Diego OG. Hell yeah, she’s the most robbed fighter in the UFC. Most of her career L’s came at the hands of the judges. But she’s still standing here screaming f**k the Free World! Angela Hill is the female version of anytime/anywhere. Look at her record. At one point in her career, it seemed like she was fighting on every other card. You can beat Angela Hill, many have, but she rarely gets her ass completely kicked. If Luana Pinheiro starts half-stepping for even one minute of this fight, Angela Hill will fook around and steal it.
This will be an output vs. power matchup – technique and fundamentals vs. straight brawling. Angela Hill has landed over one hundred significant strikes eight times in her UFC career. Her Octagon experience is a Madden 99. She has fought literally everybody. She probably even fought your fookin’ granny, homie. I ain’t your homie, chief. She’s the female Jim Miller, the District Manager of the Bridge of Death for female gatekeepers. She’s an OG, a Kit Carson who bush whacked her way through the rugged terrain of early women’s MMA. The entire Octagon is a Hill she’s willing to die on when she steps into the cage. The key for Angela is simple: Turn this into geometry class. Angles beat straight lines when it comes to striking. Angela needs to stay on her bike on the outside while pumping her jab – make Pinheiro move her feet and make it difficult for her to sit down on her wild punches.
Angela is 16-13 for her career with five career TKO/KOs. That’s it. She’s not a home run hitter; she bats for average. She gets those infield singles like Ichiro. She’s Billy Bean Money Ball translated into the Octagon; it’s all about on-base percentage. Win or lose, Hill is always a Fantasy stud when she’s facing another striker. Her kryptonite is her grappling from her back, and other than a fake-it-til-you-make-it takedown attempt here and there, Pinheiro lacks the wrestling to cause Hill problems.
Cue that Hall & Oates “Crazy Eyes.” Luana Pinheiro is Day-Day's girlfriend who destroys his car in Next Friday. She’ll smash your windshield, put bologna slices on your candy paint, and put sugar in your gas tank. She fights like she has been recently scorned. There’s a bitterness to her striking – a little extra vitriol that isn't natural. She fights like she found the password to your iPhone. She makes shit personal: “She wore white after Labor Day, and I took that personal.” Yep, she’s the female Anthony Smith, projecting heinous crimes on you – blames you for stealing her man even though she’s been single her entire life. Now Cue that “Joleen,” the Miley Cyrus version.
Luan Pinheiro reminds me of a Make-A-Wish Amanda Lemos. She shakes off the catcher until he finally holds up one finger – the fastball. She throws nothing but bottom of the ninth one hunnid mph fastballs no matter the count, situation, or batter’s strengths/weaknesses. This lady will swing out of her crooked-ass Ugg Boots every exchange. These boots were made for head kickin’, and that’s just what they’ll do. Overhands and head kicks, that’s Pinheiros style in a nutshell. Her haymakers bring all the boys to the yard. But her pace and volume write checks her cardio can’t cash. The check bounces and she gets hit with all kinds of penalties. Pinheiro’s only choice is to short play this fight and try to land something heavy early and get Angela out of there ASAP. I see Pinheiro getting out to an early lead before Angela takes over late.
Pinheiro is 11-2 in her career with two TKO/KOs and five subs. I’m not sure where those subs came from, but most likely, they are club-and-subs. She averages just under four SLpM to Hill’s five and a half. Pinheiro can easily make up for the output discrepancy with her power, and if this one ends before the final bell, it will likely be Pinheiro getting her hand raised. But Hill will be the (-140) favorite, and Pinheiro will be the (+115) live dog. Pinheiro can create a fight-ending sequence at any moment, while Angela will have to control the stand-up from the outside for the duration. Fantasy-wise, Pinheiro has a higher upside with the possibility of a finish. But Hill will be a more consistent, trustworthy pick. You already know I didn’t come here to pick against the San Diego representative. Angela Hill via decision. On wax.
Props
Hill: TKO/KO (+1000) Sub (+900) Dec (-105)
Pinheiro: TKO/KO (+1000) Sub (+900) Dec (+200)
Winner: Angela Hill | Method: Decision
Abus Magomedov (-285) vs. Warlley Alves (+225)
Abus: DK: $9k | Alves: DK:$7.2k
Everywhere I look, the final bout order is different. So, I’m nominating this banger for the final spot. You may remember Abus Magomedov, who went from the Candyman to Candyass real fookin’ quick after an altercation with Sean Strickland in a main event last year. He came out pushing a December 31st pace with January 1st cardio and fell off a cliff like Gavin Escobar after the first round. He then rebounded with a decision loss to Ciao Borralho, but after what Borralho just did to Paul Craig, that might not be such a bad look. This time he’ll be up against a guy with War in his name, Warlley Alves. WARlley is an Ultimate Fighter Brazil champion and hell on two legs. This will be another technique vs. power stand-up banger.
Warrley Alves is the mayor in The Nightmare Before Christmas. He has two different personalities and either can show up in any given round. In one round, he’s the bear with an ass in his mouf, and in another, he’s the ass in the bear’s mouf. He’ll come out and kick the shit outta your liver, literally, like he did against Mounir Lazzez, or he’ll get flying knee KO’d within two minutes like he did in his most recent bout against Ikram Aliskerov. “Feeling sleepy; might get knocked out later.” But when this dude is on his game, Alves is a mother-shut-your-mouth.
Alves has Civil War cannonballs for hands with innards and viscera and gore embedded on their surface from their flight through human bodies. Like Luana Pinheiro, Alves puts some hate on his strikes. He puts the pain of every bad thing that ever happened to him—the time his mammy threw away his lucky pair of shit-stained ThunderCats chonies when he was five or when they ruined the final season of Game of Thrones—into every strike. His round kicks to the body are disrespectful and offensive, and the overwhelming disdain he puts behind his strikes hurts more than their impact. Who hurt you, Warlley? But his major malfunction is that his pace is more confusing than reading Faulkner in sixth grade. He explodes, then waits half of the round for the radioactivity to dissipate before he explodes again.
Alves is 14-7 for his career with four TKO/KOs and six subs and is riding a three-fight losing streak. He has also lost four of his last five. He will be the slightly lower volume fighter, averaging under three and a half SLpM to Abus’s just over three and a half. Warlley averages over one takedown per fifteen minutes, and mixing things up will be the key against Abus. He has to try to fill in the striking gaps with clinch work and takedowns.
With every passing minute, Abus goes from Abus to Avan to Acar to Abike to Apedestrian to Abuster, to Aloss. His fight gloves turn into fingerless biker gloves as soon as the clock strikes seven minutes. He goes from urban legend to Urban Outfitters swing shift real fookin’ quick. In the first round, Abus is under warranty. In the second, his warranty is void. He hits 100k miles after the first round. Abus is built like a fit sixty-year-old. He has a huge frame and a plethora of long-range strikes to emphasize his reach. His specialties are snap kicks up the middle; he’s like the Ray Guy of coffin corner punts to the face. His punches are long and tight like hallways and are most effective when used in two-round bursts. He’s the least effective when extending combinations in the pocket, which is where Alves will try to draw him. Overall, Abus is lanky and janky, a not-so-dynamic duo.
Abus is 25-6 for his career with fourteen TKO/KOs and six subs and is 1-2 in the UFC. Most importantly, Abus is the (-275) favorite, and Warlley is the (+220) live dog. At this point, I don’t think Abus should be a (-275) favorite over anybody. This all comes down to which Warlley Alves shows up. Will he be the bear or the ass? I don’t have enough faith in the former. So, reluctantly, I have to ride with Abus using his range to out-point Warlley for fifteen minutes. Both guys are finishing threats, but their paces are erratic and sporadic, and it could just as easily become a relatively tepid kickboxing match as it can a one-round firefight. Abus Magomedov via decision. Wax on, wax off.
Props
Abus: TKO/KO (-110) Sub (+450) Dec (+500)
WARlley: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+1000) Dec (+900)
Winner: Abus Magomedov | Method: Decision
Prelims
$7k Value Menu
Luana Pinheiro ($7.9k): Her power worries me for my fellow San Diegan Angela Hill. Over the years, I’ve seen Angela Stomp the Yard, Boot Scootin’ Boogie, and straight set trip and c-walk like WC after being rocked on the feet. After twenty-one fights in the UFC, almost since day one, the low tread warning is starting to show on her chin. She can’t take shots like she used to, and avoiding Pinheiro’s moon shots for fifteen minutes is a tough task. Surviving the first half of the fight will be the key for Angela. Pinheiro’s Fantasy value in the first five to seven minutes is as high as anyone’s on the card. This young lady cracks like fault lines and is a huge finishing threat early. But the downside is that she tends to fade in the second half of the fight, and her career high in strikes landed is sixty in a fight that went the distance.
Ramiz Brahimaj ($7.8k): Lost at sea Sean Brady is back, aka Castaway Sean Brady. This guy was highly touted before his debut against Max Griffin in the year of the great toilet paper famine. He went straight Van Gogh in that fight – his cauliflower ear literally fell off in the third round, and the fight was stopped. Since then, he has evened his record to 2-2 in the UFC but hasn’t fought in two years. All that being said, this guy has crazy wrestling/grappling, and he’s ten for ten – ten dubs and ten subs. Now, he has earned a free sub. But it won’t be easy against another wrestler/grappler, Themba Gorimbo. This will be wrestler vs. wrestler, featuring two guys with terrible takedown defense. Whoever gets the first takedown could win this one. Gorimbo is 12-4 for his career, and two losses came via submission. And Brahimaj only wins by sub... see where I’m going? But Brahimaj’s downside is steep if he’s the one who ends up on his back.
Edson Barboza ($7.7k): Even if he gets taken down, Lerone Murphy is far from Mark Coleman from the top position or Charles Oliveira with the submissions. He’s a control guy from the top. The only threat he really poses is salting away the clock. On the feet, Barboza will get him some. He’s still a dangerous MF, and this fight gives me Jose Aldo vs. Jonathan Martinez vibes. The young buck wasn’t quite ready for the legend. I think Barboza is the more dangerous fighter in this matchup – the bigger finishing threat. Murphy can definitely win this fight; he's a smart fighter and avoids dangerous extended exchanges on the feet. But the key will be securing multiple takedowns. Murphy can get Barboza down once or twice, but he may need more than that. The x-factor will be Barboza’s spinning shit. They materialize out of nowhere and are fight-changers.
$6k Bathroom Clearance Rack
Victor Martinez ($6.7k): This guy is built like SpongeBob and awkward, like making eye contact while standing at a urinal with the guy next to you while three urinals remain open. But this pick isn’t about Victor Martinez; it’s about Tom Nolan. Tommy looked like a blood-stained mouth savage on the Contender Series, like a third of the month, broke Cory Sandhagen and scored a one-minute first-round TKO. Then, in his debut, Nolan came out and got his cheeks clapped like Meek Mill – standing ovation. Nikolas “Top Shelf” Motta had the honor of cracking Nolan’s ass that night, scoring his own one-minute first-round TKO. Vinicius Salvador ($6.9k) may score more significant strikes in a loss, but Martinez could fook around and land an awkward bomb that changes the fight against Nola. Martinez could just as easily get smoked out in one minute, but I think he has a slightly better chance of scoring an upset just based on his opponent.
Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers
Edson Barboza (+125): This is a toss-up fight, and if Lerone can’t consistently get Barboza to the mat and keep him there, Barboza will do Barboza shit on the feet. I don’t think Murphy can hot box with the G-O-D on the feet for twenty-five minutes. That’s a fool’s errand. Murphy has to make this an MMA fight. But it’s not a given that he will be able to do so. Plus money Barboza is like plus money Aldo. This will be the third fight in a row that Barboza was the dog, and he won the two previous fights. I think Barboza is the finishing threat and has an ESPN Top Ten highlight reel of KOs to prove it.
Warlley Alves (+240): War is his first name. When WARlley Alves shows up and not the Coachella hologram version, he can hang with the best. This is a matchup between two fighters you can’t trust. After his first three UFC bouts, Abus Magomedov has been a Greg Oden BUSTer. A Dust Buster. A Dave& Buster. A Buster Olney. A Buster Posey. A Buster Douglas. A Door Buster. He had a highlight reel twenty-second KO in his debut but then dropped two straight, including a shellacking at the hands of Sean Strickland. Abus hasn’t been able to find the just right porridge when it comes to output/pace. Warlley has heavier hands, and Abus is more technical. But if Alves comes out with his left-round kick set on fully auto as he did against Mounir Lazzez, he’ll have something for Abus.
Luana Pinheiro (+115): This lady should make the walk to “Hells Bells” on some Trevor Hoffman type-shit. Pinheiro throws nothing but two and four-seam bottom-of-the-ninth closer fastballs. You think your lady’s Ugg boots are fooked up? Wait until you see Pinheiro’s after she’s been swinging out of them for fifteen minutes. She’s the finishing threat against Angela Hill. Angela will have to pitch a near-perfect game to escape with a dub, but Pinheiro can make up ground quickly with her reckless power.
Pick ‘Em
Themba Gorimbo (-140) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (+115)
Winner: Themba Gorimbo
Method: Decision
Victor Martinez (+350) vs. Tom Nolan (-450)
Winner: Tom Nolan
Method: TKO Rd.2
Oumar Sy ( ) vs. George Tokkos ( )
Winner: Oumar Sy
Method: Decision
Tamires Vidal (+260) vs. Melissa Gatto (-325)
Winner: Melissa Gatto
Method: Decision
Piera Rodriguez (-200) vs. Ariane Carnelossi (+165)
Winner: Piera Rodriguez
Method: Decision
Alatengheili (+125) vs. Kleydson Rodrigues (-150)
Winner: Alatengheili
Method: Decision
Vanessa Demopoulos (+260) vs. Emily Ducote (-325)
Winner: Emily Ducote
Method: Decision
Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.
About Me
My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.
I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.
In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door polic1