Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Gilbert Burns (+155) vs. Sean Brady (-180)

Boo-urns: DK: $7.5k | Brady: DK:$8.7k

The last time we saw Sean Brady, he looked like Wayne Brady, bullying Kelvin Gastelum for his ham sammich, “Eat your sammich, Kelvin... Give me your sammich, Kelvin.” The evil side of Sean Brady came out like he stepped into the Octagon backward, his massive back tat leading the way. Brady's back tat would look great hanging on Lady Gaga’s living room wall. Balenciaga plans to use backward Sean Brady in their Spring 2025 ads. My man has so many tattoos that his body looks like the artist just left the pen resting on his back for twenty-four hours - like he spilled the fookin’ ink bottle on him. Noinety percent of Sean Brady’s body is redacted; he’s a walking classified document. This muhfucker has so many tats he bleeds ink like an octopus. Brady’s Marvel origin story says his back tat invaded Brady’s body like Venom and commandeers his consciousness inside the Octagon. That explains why Brady is 6-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming to the current champ Belal Muhammad. 

But Sean Brady isn’t all tattoos. He’s a human being, too. And a solid fookin’ fighter. Speaking of the Belal fight, Brady looked like Canelo in that bish in the first round. Homie came out with battered and deep-fried crispy hands – Original recipe hands. Brady’s stand-up has gotten consistently better since his debut in 2019, to the point that he can survive on the feet with most strikers in the division. But it’s still stiff like eighth-grade boys’ tube socks. Brady’s body is just too bulky to be a fluid striker. He has NES two-dimensional directional pad footwork and is mostly a one-punch striker. But he adds a third dimension when he can use his wrestling and the threat of the takedown to accentuate his boxing. 

The only time Brady couldn't use his wrestling was against Belal, and he eventually got overwhelmed on the feet. Brady’s striking depends on his wrestling like the first and fifteenth; they go together like... Love and marriage, love and marriage, go together like horse and carriage. Hit that Married with Children theme song! Brady has dominant takedowns and a top game like blackout curtains – like the lead vest the dentist puts on your chest before x-rays. When Brady gets you to the mat, he becomes the plastic wrap on your granny’s couch. He vacuum seals you - turns you into a late-night infomercial from the top position. He’ll keep your ass fresh for months. No diddy. He'll turn your ass into astronaut food real fookin’ quick.   

The key to this fight will be takedown defense. Both fighters have excellent offensive wrestling/grappling. But Gil Burns rocks a fifty percent takedown defense to Brady’s eighty-seven percent, and Burns averages just under two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes to Brady’s just under three and a half. Whoever can implement their wrestling will win this fight. There’s a chance the wrestling/grappling could be a stalemate, and the fight turns into a kickboxing match. But I think Brady can get Burns to the mat, and when/if he does, he has to create damage. If Brady can’t get Burns down, I’d give Burns the slight edge on the feet; he had success on the feet against high-level strikers like Usman (he eventually got KO’d, though) and Khamzat.   

“Smithers, are they booing me?” 

“Oh, no, Sir. They’re saying ‘Boo-urns, Boo-urns!’” Gil Boo-urns is back! And he still has the giant boot the Australian Prime Minister tried to kick Bart in the ass with on his right foot. And you already know he still has that veiny Quagmire right hand whose function was gained using the recently published Harvard study that recommended Channel 99 and chill at least twenty-six times per month to lower men's risk of developing prostate cancer. That’s peer-reviewed; it’s science.   

“Ladies, I’m Gilbert Burns, and I have an eleven-inch right hand... Around. Think about it.” 

Even though Gil is riding a two-fight losing streak, he still has his two best weapons. He still has a Brandon Aubrey right leg. Homie can kick sixty-six-yard field goals with ten yards to spare. And he still has the right hand that folded Khamzat Chimaev like Marilyn Manson after he got a rib removed. Burns remains dangerous on the feet, and he will be a bigger finishing threat while the fight remains standing. Gil only really struggles against combination strikers, which Brady isn’t. Burns struggles because he is a one-punch striker, too, and can’t keep up with the volume. Gil has hands like 1700s muskets; it takes five minutes to reload his hands after firing a punch. He has to call a time-out while he pours gunpowder into a little funnel, drops a steel ball down the barrel, and tamps it down with a metal rod. “Okay, time in!” Gilbert took, “You only get one shot; do not miss your chance to blow,” literally. Fortunately, he can go strike for strike with Brady and has the fight-ending weapon that Brady doesn’t. 

In his last bout against Jack “De la Soul,” Burns was a minute and a half away from eking out a decision. But he turned into Danny Dimes and tripped on the fifteen-yard line with nothing but daylight ahead of him. Burns used his wrestling and seven takedowns with over a round worth of control time to stifle Della Maddalena’s momentum on the feet. Nobody has tested Brady’s defensive grappling. If Gil can get the fight to the mat, he has better pure Jiu-Jitsu than Brady. Brady is more of a power wrestler while Gil is slick with crafty transitions and subs.   

Brady is 16-1 for his career with three TKO/KOs and five subs. Burns is 22-7 with six TKO/KOs and noine subs. Brady will be the (-180) favorite, and Boo-urns will be the (+155) live-ass dog. Gil can win this fight on the feet. He can more than hold his own on the mat, but I like his chances of hurting Brady on the feet. I’m not sure he can get Brady down consistently and will be better served keeping the fight standing. Brady will be more dependent on getting Gil to the mat and using takedown threats to enhance his striking. The play for both fighters is a decision. Both have been finished on the feet, but both rely on one punch to create fight-ending sequences.   

The main event-losing streak ended two weekends ago when Ciao Borralho came out looking like the real Lyoto Machida against Jared Cannonier. The Fighting Nerds aren't here to take part. They’re here to take over. This week’s pick is nasty work. It’s cruel to pit such similar fighters against each other. These guys have almost identical skill sets. At the end of the day, when it’s all said and done, I think Brady can score enough takedowns to edge close rounds. Gil is also at his best when he can wrestle/grapple, but I’m not sure he can get Brady down. Sean Brady via decision. I've been going back and forth, and there's too much value on Gil as a dog. Give me Gilbert Boo-urns via decision. Put it on wax. 

Props

Brady: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+1000) Dec (+140) 

Burns: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+800) Dec (+500)

Winner: Gilbert Burns | Method: Decision

Jessica Andrade (+250) vs. Natalia Silva (-300)

Andrade: DK: $7.2k | Silva: DK: $9k

Girl fight! Girl fights bring all the boys to the yard. If you were eyeing a Mary Jay break during this fight, I’m here to tell you: Don’t do it. This right here is a crunchy little banger. Natalia Silva is Wonderboy, the female version. So... Wondergirl? Yes, she’s Wondergirl, but with takedown defense. Regardless of the outcome of this scrap, Natalia Silva is the future. But before the future is ushered in, a ghost of Champion's past must be vanquished. This is a speed vs. power matchup, and there’s a better chance of Lizzo skipping seconds than this one going to the mat.   

The only number you need to know about Natalia Silva is that she averages over six AWpM (Ass Whoopins per Minute). That’s a Weekly KO Next Gen stat that you won’t get anywhere else. Natalia Silva is so fast she will whoop your ass and call her own fight at the desk with DC and Jon Anik. She’s so fast, she will whoop your ass and watch it live on ESPN+. She’ll whoop your ass and holler at her bookie with some prop bets. For all you foot worshippers, Natalia Silva is the return of your savior. She’s Bob Ross with her feet. Picture perfect; she paints a perfect picture with her Karate feet. Silva is the real-life Chun Li with the lightning kicks. She might even fook around and hit your ass with a spinning bird kick just so she can make the ESPN Top Ten. Sidekicks, round kicks, spinning shit; Silva has feet as fast as prime Vitor Belfort’s hands. She has Ryan Garcia’s hands on her feet.   

But what makes Natalia’s kicking game special is her hip feints. Silva has Shakira hips, except Silva’s are out here failing lie detectors. Silva’s hips always lie. Round kick to the body: Our producers have determined that is a lie. Sidekick to the face, you are the father! She’ll turn round kicks into sidekicks and vice versa, all the while setting them up with hip feints to draw reactions. Feints within feints. She gives nothing but mixed signals, like every light at the intersection is green. You don’t know which way anything is coming from. Yo! Hit The Roots “Break You Off!” Natalia Silva is coming to break you off, real nice, real proper. The moment the bell rings, she will put her feet and hands in your face until the final bell. 

But Silva has a major malfunction that will play right into Jessica Andrade’s hands. Silva is one hundred percent dependent on in/out movement to defend and uses no head movement. During every exchange, she holds her chin up like The Thinker. Cue that D12 “That’s How!” That’s how Natalia Silva got f**ked up! Silva’s chin is a right hand magnet because she never moves it off the center line, and Andrade has the Izzy right hand to Silva’s Alex Pereira chin. If she isn’t careful, Silva will get got. Nobody can take Andrade’s bombs. Silva is 17-5 for her career with five TKO/KOs and seven subs and averages four and a half SLpM to Andrade’s six and a half. Silva will be the lower-output striker but will have the far more diverse attacks.   

Jessica Andrade is one of the few women in the game with light switch power. She’ll sleep you like Social Studies class. It's like she has the controls to the kill switch implanted in her opponent's chin during manufacturing. Andrade has that pull-the-plug power. Call her Jessica The Plug. She has a Mega Man plasma cannon for a right hand. Her hands generate so much power they create nuclear waste and require thirty years to deactivate after a fight. You get radiation poisoning just from standing in the Octagon with her. She turns the cage into Chernobyl. You come out that bish looking like a Resident Evil monster. Andrade’s game is simple: All Power Everything. Andrade uses insane pressure. I’m talking strait jackets and the looney bin insane pressure. Once the bell rings, she stays on that ass like Don Quixote – like Lululemon. N’ah mean? She creates more pressure than when the rent is due and you’re accounts are overdrawn. Economic pressure, that real pressure; that’s the kind of pressure Andrade imposes.   

The key for Andrade will be volume and setting the pace at frantic. Andrade can make every second feel like an uncontrollable frenzy. She won’t allow Silva an opportunity to get comfortable and establish a coherent pace. Andrade will have to bully Silva and get inside of her long-range kicks with her short overhands and hooks. The better finishing threat will no doubt be Jessica Andrade. She is 26-12 for her career with ten TKO/KOs and eight subs. Of her five losses, Silva has been finished three times, once by TKO/KO and twice by sub. Andrade will be the most dangerous striker Silva has faced.   

Silva will be the (-280) favorite, and Andrade will be the (+230) live-ass dog. This is a damn toss-up. The oddsmakers are trying to get some money coming in on Andrade because she has faced a Hall of Fame list of opponents in her career and will dwarf Silva in experience. The big question is how Silva will handle Andrade’s pressure. Everyone has a plan until they eat a little Mega Man cannon blast to the face. The play for Silva is a decision. And although there is value in an Andrade decision, I like playing her for a TKO/KO finish. But I say all that to say this: Speed Kills. It’s the most difficult physical attribute to overcome. Natalia Silva via decision.   

Props

Silva: TKO/KO (+275) Sub (+800) Dec (+100) 

Andrade: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+2000) Dec (+600)

Winner: Natalia Silva | Method: Decision

Steve Garcia (-185) vs. Kyle Nelson (+160)

Garcia: DK: $8.6k | Nelson: DK:$7.6k

This shit right here. This shit right HERE! This shit! This shit right here is a muhf**kin’ banger. I don’t know if there are two more slept-on fighters than Kyle Nelson and Steve Garcia. These guys are castaways on the Island of Misfit fighters. Their major malfunctions outnumber their physical gifts by a ratio of 50:1. But that doesn’t matter when you have a whole pack of Resident Evil dogs in you like Steve and Kyle. Steve Garcia is a view-level stadium brawler, and Kyle Nelson is an unassuming, silent ass-kicker that will sneak up on ya like that shit on ya lip. The last thing you want to do is miss this scrap. It won’t last long. Steve Garcia will make sure of that.   

Steve Garcia’s last six fights ended, for better or worse, before the final bell – none making it beyond the second round. Garcia fights are 90’s freeway high-speed car chases. KTLA type-shit – speeding through intersections, driving over medians, bailing out, foot pursuits, and jumping over fences – all that shit. He’s the LA riots personified. Yo! Hit that Sublime “April 29, 1992!” Steve Garcia was rioting the streets; tell me, where were you? This guy’s aggression is nuckin’ futs. Stevey has that bath salts aggression – ass neked, gnawing your face off while howling at the moon. This guy will howl at a sliver moon. He’ll howl at the fookin’ sun. When I see Steve Garcia fight, he reminds me of those guys on Mad Max who spray silver paint in their mouths before making the trip to Valhalla. You don’t beat Steve Garcia; you survive him. And just when you think Steve is about to get got, he turns the tables like Jazzy Jeff. KO him? If you KO Steve Garcia in a dream, you better wake up and apologize. 

Garcia’s major malfunctions? If I listed them, it would be longer than the bible. His striking has massive galaxy-swallowing, time-folding, dimension-creating black holes. There is nothing he does correctly. Fundamentals don’t live here. Technique ain’t welcome around these parts. Garcia’s best weapon is stupid, wild pressure. Sometimes, flat-out aggression can trump everything. Opponents look like deer frozen in the dead lights when Garcia comes out winging punches. Steve Garcia ain’t here for a long time; he’s here for about six to seven minutes. For his career, Garcia is 16-5 with thirteen TKO/KOs. F**k a submission. He’s 5-2 in the UFC and is currently riding a four-fight winning/TKO/KO streak. The only play for Garcia is an early finish.   

“Cot Dammit” Kyle Nelson looks like the old man with the shovel in Home Alone, the early years. He’ll crack your ass like Harry and Marv real fookin’ quick. Nelson double majored at Chito Vera University, and if he beats Steve Garcia, he’ll earn tenure as a professor. Welcome to the boneyard. Nelson is the Bone Collector, using every bone in his body, including the Stapes bone, to inflict damage. But his best weapon for bludgeoning opponents is the olecranon, aka the elbow. Nelson throws bows like Ludacris and is crafty at using them as counters. Nelson’s style isn’t eye-pleasing. His striking is stiff and upright like six a.m. But he locks his elbows and throws heavy, wide hammers over the top and around the opponent’s guard. Nelson’s special move is the Lizzie Borden twelve-to-six overhand right. There’s no way to defend it. It’s like a nuclear Three Stooges bonk on the head. And watch out for his lead left leg. It’s light and airy like IHop flapjacks and can get to an opponent's head with the quickness.   

Overall, Kyle fights like a Wilding sent to the wall to fight the White Walkers. You need him on that wall. You want him on that wall. And in the face of death, Nelson remains cooler than the other side of the pillow. If you don’t kill him early, you won’t kill him late. He’s a blood-stained-mouth savage waiting for colonialists to stumble upon his shores so he can have a hot meal. The Key for Nelson will be surviving Garcia’s opening frenzy and using his lead leg and elbows to counter Garcia’s extreme aggression. The longer the fight goes, the better Kyle’s chances will be of finishing Garcia late. He will be the more technical/traditional striker and far better at preserving his energy for the later rounds. Nelson is 16-5 with six TKO/KOs and four subs. More importantly, he has gone 3-0-1 since starting his UFC career 1-4. Kyle Nelson found his groove.

Garcia will be the (-190) favorite, and Nelson will be the (+165) live-ass dog. Again, this is another toss-up. Garcia’s chances to win are front-loaded. He fights like there’s no second round. And Nelson has been a (+200) dog in his last four fights. I remodeled the Thunderdome by betting on Kyle Nelson's last three fights. Fook the Fantasy stats, this one isn’t going the distance. One of these guys will get got. And likely early. Nelson will be dripping Fantasy value all over your freshly Swiffer’d floor. He’s built to weather the storm and finish Steve Garcia. Dammit, I’m gonna do it. Don’t do it. Bet I won’t. Kyle Nelson via TKO, round two. Put that ish on wax, pawtnas.  

“We aint your—” 

Props

Garcia: TKO/KO (-135) Sub (+1200) Dec (+900) 

Nelson: TKO/KO (+275) Sub (+1000) Dec (+800)

Winner: Kyle Nelson | Method: TKO Rd.2

Matt Schnell ( ) vs. Cody Durden ( )

Schnell: DK: $ k | Durden: DK: $ k

“Ya’ll want to see a dead body?”  

I present you Matt Schnell after his last two fights.  

“Damn, it smells like a dog died.” 

Not even Bruce Willis dies harder than Matt Schnell. He wears his chin on his sleeves. In his thirteen UFC bouts, Matt Schnell’s chin has died a thousand deaths. His chin has died more times than Kenny. I trust dressing up as an M&M (the yellow one) and trick-or-treating at Lizzo’s house more than Matt Schnell’s chin. His chin looks like a student driver car after a cross-country road trip. His chin has more dents and divots than the driving range cart that picks up all the balls. But never forget the time Su Mudaerji had Matt Schnell dancing like Van Damme in Kickboxer after a couple shots, standing on his toes like MJ before Schnell came back like that shit you haven’t gone to the doctor for and submitted Su. It was an all-time great moment – an Easter-like comeback.  

I say that to say this: Bring back G.I. Jane Matt Schnell. That Walt White shaved head, Matt Schnell. There’s something devious about a guy who shaves his head and doesn’t have to. Don’t get it fooked up like Deion’s toes; Matt Schnell ain’t no crumb bum. His striking is good enough to get KO’d by the best in the division. That means it’s good enough for him to even step into the cage with elite fighters. Schnell still has crispy, underrated boxing and a sneaky submission game on the mat. His major malfunction is (you guessed it) his chin. It can’t survive a minor fender bender at this point. The UFC uses Matt Schnell as chum to lure great whites. They put Schnell in there with all the killers.   

There is a last-minute shake-up. Alessandro Costa, Schnell’s original opponent, has dropped the fight just days out. In steps Tyler Durden’s underrated/underappreciated little brother, Cody Durden, who will be using PTO time for his day job at the soap factory. Unfortunately for Schnell, he went from a bad matchup to a badder matchup. Durden is a straight heathen who the UFC brass use as an Apocalypto sacrifice. Durden’s stand-up isn’t great, but it has consistently gotten better, and homie throws with No Reservations on some Anthony Bourdain type-ish. And on the mat, Durden is a takedown Dynamo, and I ain’t talking that dude dressed like a Christmas tree in The Running Man. Durden is an elite grappler who only loses to world-class grapplers. In his last bout, Durden was completely dominating Bruno Silva before he got caught on the feet. Overall, Durden is a grinder who will leave you leave you looking like sawdust before he wraps you in a Swisher Sweet and smokes your ass.   

I have to assume Durden will be the favorite. His value will be in takedowns and top control, with a good shot at landing a submission. Durden is 16-6 with six TKO/KOs and five subs, and I like playing Durden for a late submission. Schnell rocks a fifty-five percent takedown defense and will have a hard time staying on his feet. If you’re hell-bent on betting on Schnell, take him by submission. I can see him locking up a triangle from his back. Out of his noine career subs, five came from Matt Schnell’s back, including three triangles and two guillotines. And of Durden’s six career losses, four came via submission. But it’s hard to go against the Durden bloodline. Cody Durden via rear-naked choke, round three. On wax. 

Props

Schnell: TKO/KO ( ) Sub ( ) Dec ( )  

Durden: TKO/KO ( ) Sub ( ) Dec ( )

Winner: Cody Durden | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Trevor Peek (-120) vs. Yanal Ashmoz (+105)

Peek: DK: $8.2k | Ashmoz: DK:$8k

This one is guaranteed to be a clusterf**k. Why? Because Trevor Peek is a walking clusterf**k. Peak Trevor Peek is wildin’ the fook out inside the cage and pray and spraying the whole arena with sloppy Joe hooks and overhands. In recent fights, Peek has tried to tame the beast within, but I’m here to say let that shit out. Don’t hold it in. You’ll blow your o-ring! Yanal Ashmoz is a prototypical wrestler-striker who had a Brady Anderson-like debut, turning into a home run hitter overnight with a one-minute KO. But Ashmoz quickly turned into Assmoz against Chris Duncan in his sophomore outing, getting dominated from bell to bell. If Ashmoz is smart, he will turn this into a wrestler vs. striker matchup ASAP. 

Trevor Peek looks like Gain of Function Randy Marsh and fights like a rodent. You have to set those little glue strips all over the Octagon to catch this MF. He’s a varmint, a pest you can’t get rid of inside the cage. Fighting Trevor Peek is like fighting in a dream. You can’t figure out why you’re getting your ass kicked. Your parents didn’t let you play with kids like Trevor Peek; he just has a feral vibe. Inside the cage, Peek fights like he doesn’t know which ass in the arena to kick first. And he kicks every ass like it’s the last ass he will ever kick. Trevor Peeks motto: If you love kicking ass, you’ll never have to fight a day in your life.   

On the feet, Peek is all windmills like Sancho Panza and Don Quixote – all windmills like a little Dutch village. His windmills could power the US power grid. Peak Peek comes out the gate like a cat who was doing cat nip rails in the green room with Rick James before the fight. His M.O. is creating mayhem. Yo! Hit that Beatles “Helter Skelter!” This dude’s fights are the riot scene at the end of The Joker. Check it: I once caught a catfish at Elephant Butte Lake in New Mexico. My cousin gutted that MF real quick and tossed its innards into the lake. Then, it stabbed my cousin with the little bone that protrudes from the dorsal fin, leaped out of his hands, and swam away. No bullshittin’. Swam off with no guts inside it. Trevor Peek is that fish reincarnated. When you think he’s dead, he ain’t.   

Peek launches nothing but overhand mortar shells – all you hear is that “Thoonk, thoonk, thoonk” sound when Trevor lets his hands go. He counts on his hands creating a shrapnel effect because accuracy isn’t one of his strengths. Direct hits aren’t Peek’s objective; he’s playing horseshoes and hand grenades when he strikes. In his last two bouts, Peek has played it safe and implemented wrestling-heavy game plans. That won’t be an option against the better wrestler Ashmoz. That’s good news for fans because Peek will have to embrace his feral side as he did on the Contender Series and in his first two official UFC bouts. Peek is 9-2 for his career with eight TKO/KOs. He will be the higher output striker, averaging four and a half SLpM to Ashmoz’s three.   

I don’t know what to make of Yanal Ashmoz other than he’s built like Megan Fox’s thumb. He’s built like he still measures his height on the wall with a pencil. Homie is hoping to ride Splash Mountain next year. On the feet, he fights with one arm tied behind his back. He relies almost exclusively on his right hand to engage and cover distance. But that right hand will turn you into a smoldering pile of ash like you fell asleep with a cig in your mouth. Ask Sam Patterson, aka Ol’ Sam Pat. But other than a heavy right hand, there isn’t much to Ashmoz’s striking. He couldn’t handle heavy pressure or volume against Chris Duncan. Overall, Ashmoz sits in the non-smoking section. He doesn’t want the smoke like asthmatics. If he can’t overpower you early, he seems to accept getting picked apart on the feet. He is an a la carte striker who rarely puts two punches together, and if he can’t find a finish, he will be a Fantasy dud. He only landed thirty-five strikes in his last bout that went the distance.  

Check that. Ashmoz will have decent value if he can get Peek to the mat consistently. Peeks rocks a fifty-four percent takedown defense like hand-me-down duds. The path to victory for Ashmoz is taking Peek down and dominating the top position. But Peek has never been finished, and I don’t think Ashmoz is much of a submission threat. Ashmoz is 7-1 with four TKO/KOs and two subs. This one is basically a pick ‘em with Peek returning (-115) and Ashmoz (-105). The finishing threat is Trevor Peek, and he has the higher upside. But that’s only if he lets it all hang out like Pedro Cerrano rounding the bases. All that being said, the play for both fighters is a decision. If Ashmoz wrestles, the flow could get disjointed and occasionally come to a standstill against the cage. Trevor Peek via decision. Wax on, wax off.   

Props

Peek: TKO/KO (+275) Sub (+2500) Dec (+200)  

Ashmoz: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+1200) Dec (+275)

Winner: Trevor Peek | Method: Decision

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Zygimantas Ramaska ($7.9k): This guy is coming off the Ultimate Fighter show and was supposed to fight on the last card. Flame on. This guy is Johnny Storm when it comes to creating a firefight. On the show, this guy was involved in the fight of the year in which his orbital bone was broken, forcing him out of a spot in the semifinals. I don’t know much about Nathan Fletcher other than he is a solid all-around fighter who might have an advantage on the mat. But I like the chances of this fight staying on the feet and both fighters scoring valuable striking stats. If it stays standing, Ramaska will put up solid striking stats, and he has a one-hunnid-percent career finishing rate with five TKO/KOs and four subs with a 9-2 record.   

Kyle Nelson ($7.6k): If Kyle Nelson can get this fight to the second round and beyond, I like his chances of scoring a late finish. After a slow start to his UFC career, Nelson has been on fire in his last four bouts, and his original opponent was Calvin “& Hobbs” Kattar. That would have been a massive step up in competition for Kyle and says a lot about Nelson’s potential. Win or lose, this will be a pregame tailgating parking lot scrap. Steve Garcia bears its all with every exchange, and Kyle Nelson has the more technical approach while maintaining just enough unorthodoxy in his strikes to cause opponents all kinds of unforeseen problems. Kyle’s over-the-top arm angles are a MF to deal with and keep your eye on his lead leg. Head Kick City, Utah. This fight is all but guaranteed to end with a finish, and it’s a complete toss-up in my book. Nelson’s Fantasy upside will be too hard to pass up at this price.  

Jessica Andrade ($7.2k): Don’t do it. Don’t sleep on Andrade. I know I picked Natalia Silva to win this fight, but Andrade’s power has me shook. This lady not only averages six and a half SLpM, but she also has eighteen career finishes, including ten TKO/KOs. And six of her last eight dubs came via finish. Silva has yet to be chin-checked, and like Cube, Dre, Eazy, Yella, and Ren, Andrade is the ultimate women’s chin-checker. She’s a rare breed who strikes for volume and power, and her aggression is something you can’t prepare for. This could be a classic case of too much too soon for the young Silva facing a triple OG who has shared the cage with the best women to every step into the Octagon. Andrade’s upside is significant strikes with a good shot at creating a fight-ending sequence. Also, she might decide to test Silva’s ground game and use takedowns to eke out close rounds.   

$6k Bathroom Clearance Rack

Matt Schnell (6.7k): I’m assuming Schnell will stay on the clearance rack even after a late opponent change. Nine subs, and he’s facing a wrestler: That’s why Schnell is this week’s clearance rack pick. Schnell will likely spend long stretches on his back, but that’s okay because he has seven subs from his back. If Cody Durden gets lazy and fails to protect his neck, Matt Schnell will snatch it. This is a long-shot pick, but Schnell has a path to victory. And on the feet, Schnell will have more technical striking and a hand speed advantage. If you find yourself sifting through the clearance rack, Schnell has the highest upside of the three options.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Jessica Andrade (+250): This is my favorite odds range. This is where sizeable dogs with a true path to victory dwell. I’m telling you, Andrade’s pressure is insane. I get anxious thinking about that little lady chasing me around the Octagon while throwing nothing but little hammers like King Koopa. She will have far more than just a puncher’s chance against Natalia Silva. Silva represents the new generation of electric vehicles, sleek and sexy. But Andrade is the old-school muscle car; I’m talking Trans-Ams, Camaros, mustangs – all that shit. We’ll know within the opening seconds if Silva can handle Andrade’s pressure. But I think this one is a (-110) pick ‘em, and there is a ton of value on the super veteran Jessica Andrade.   

Kyle Nelson (+160): This is a Motley Crue of Twenty Twens this week. Kyle Nelson will have to ride out the early storm in the bunker, surviving off nothing but Dinty Moore and Chef Boyardee. But if he can navigate to the straits of the second round, I think he will slowly start to take over with a more technical approach. Steve Garcia leaves himself exposed, indecent, every time he lets his hands go, and it’s only a matter of time until he gets got as he did against Maheshate, his last loss. Kyle Nelson might fook around and bust out that Home Alone snow shuffle and crack Steve Garcia upside the head.   

Pick ‘Em

Zhu Rong (-260) vs. Chris Padilla (+215)  

Winner: Zhu Rong  

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Isaac Dulgarian (-2000) vs. Brandon Marotte (+950) 

Winner: Isaac Dulgarian 

Method: Decision 

Felipe dos Santos (+160) vs. Andre Lima (-185) 

Winner: Felipe dos Santos 

Method: Decision 

Zha Yi (+215) vs. Gabriel Santos (-260) 

Winner: Gabriel Santos 

Method: Decision 

Jacqueline Amorim (-300) vs. Vanessa Dumopoulos (+250) 

Winner: Jacqueline Amorim 

Method: Decision 

Andre Petroski (-290) vs. Dylan Budka (+240) 

Winner: Andre Petroski 

Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.2 

Zygimantas Ramaska (+130) vs. Nathan Fletcher (-150) 

Winner: Nathan Fletcher 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.