Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Gilbert Burns (+625) vs. Michael Morales (-1000)

Burns: DK: $6.5k | Morales: DK:$9.7k

“I Know What You Did Last Summer.” He knew the day was coming before laying eyes on the first letter. How foolish to think the promise of spit handshakes would endure the pressures of holding on to such a heavy secret. It was only a matter of time before someone talked. The letter arrived almost to the day that he had finally put it all behind him, thinking he was in the clear. But not even time can outdistance the past, always remaining only a step behind, regardless of its measurement, hours, days, months. No man, not even rocking a pair of PF Flyers, can outrun the past. 

“I Know What You Did Last Summer,” I addressed the final letter the day the fight was announced, lest Michael Morales think he could get away with it again. The images of Neil Magny lying face down on the mat last August still haunt me. And if he’s anything other than a monster, they still haunt Morales. But probably not enough to spare another opponent from begging for mercy in the form of referee intervention as Morales rains down hammerfists to preserve his undefeated record. Always taunting the authorities, leaving behind violent highlight reels as if to say, “Catch me if you can!”  

One, two, Michael’s coming for you. Three, four, he told you no locked doors. Five, six, fook your crucifix. Seven, eight, it’s already too late. Noine, ten, Michael will kick your ass again. Freddy, Jason, and Michael “Myers” Morales – top three dead or alive. This guy is straight out of the '80s and the vintage horror movies of the time. You can run, but Morales will track you down while never breaking a casual walk. Homie won’t even power walk on your ass like grammies at the mall before the shops open. You have to go full Wyans brothers and turn a scary movie into Scary Movie when you fight Michael Morales. From his menacing stance, hands at chest level like a South American Chuck Liddell, and unrelenting pressure to his authoritarian-like power, Michael Morales is a scary mother-shut-your-mouf.   

Morales has always reminded me of a mini–Rumble Johnson, aka Aftershock Rumble Johnson. But even aftershocks can cause fookin’ tsunamis. Morales isn’t the most technical striker, but he knocks like a pair of twenty-inch speakers. You hear this MF coming as soon as he exits the freeway. Morales is like a less diverse Carlos Prates. When Parates uses kicks and standing knees, Morales is mostly a boxer with the codes clutched in both fists. What codes? THE codes. I ain’t talking Game Genie or zoning permits, pawtnas. I’m talking about billionaires running to their bunkers only to find the doors locked by the people operating them, type of codes. Michael Morales has so much power that he’s drunk with it. Blowing twice the legal limit and leading a high-speed chase when the flashing lights come on, type of drunk with power.   

But, like all classic horror villains, Freddy Krueger and his mother, Jason Voorhees and water, Michael "Myers" Morales has a weakness. His defense. Disaster had to get a restraining order against Morales because he won’t stop flirting with it and harassing it with zero head movement or footwork. Morales has dog cone head movement – that lamp shade they put around a dog’s neck to keep it from licking its gonads. Disaster had to move out of state because Morales wouldn’t stop courting it. Morales has yet to face an elite striker who can exploit his defensive deficiencies. But that day is coming. I just don’t think that day will be Saturday night when he fights Gilbert Burns.   

“Are you booing, or are you saying ‘boo-urns?’” 

Gilbert “Boo-urns” Burns is back. Lately, Gilbert has been the version of Gil Burns who couldn’t steal candy from Maggie and got shot in the process. We need the diabolical Gil Burns, who wants to block the sun because it’s providing free light, heat, and energy to his customers. Gilbert Burns’ last three fights have been hard to watch. Two to three years ago, Burns would have won this fight. The Gil Burns who folded Khamzat Chimaev like Marilyn Manson after getting a rib removed at the end of the second round. Looking back, that was peak Gil Burns. But now I think he has reached his sell-by date. My man is that smell in the fridge – the Tupperware you leave in the back, so you don’t have to wash that shit.   

Gil Burns was known for his Quagmire, veiny right hand and right foot that wore the giant boot the Australians tried to kick Bart in the ass with. But that Quagmire right hand has been abstinent. It’s been playing hard to get and has begun to atrophy. And Burns never had great hand speed, but now watching him throw a 1-2 is like watching reenactment soldiers reload 1700s replica muskets - pouring the gunpowder into a little funnel, dropping a steel ball down the barrel, tamping it down with a steel, and all that. His hands are like the musket that the Predator gives Danny Glover at the end of Predator 2 after Danny fooked up its homie.   

When Burns’ striking wasn’t popping during a fight, he used to have a plan B, his wrestling grappling. But without his striking to act as a wingman, he has trouble setting up his takedowns. He used to fire that right hand and a level change behind it. Now, that’s not really an option. Gil is on a three-fight L streak, but check it: His last three opponents were Belal Muhammad, Jack Della “Soul” Maddalena, and Sean Brady. One recent former champ, the new current champ, and a future champ. All three of those guys are neighbors with Morales on Elm Street. It sounds crazy, but Michael Morales is actually a step down in competition for Burns after fighting those guys in a row.   

The problem is, I don’t know how Burns can win fights anymore. His only option against Morales is to ground him like punishment for twenty-five minutes. That’s a tough task for any wrestler/grappler. Burns averages two takedowns per fifteen minutes, while Morales rocks a noinety-two percent takedown defense. But only a year ago, Burns took down Della Maddalena seven times. Belal could only get JDM down three times last weekend, and those came late in the fight. Burns only has one finish in his previous noine fights, though. Holding down Morales for long stretches will be a tough task without a submission threat.   

Morales is 17-0 with twelve TKOs/KOs and one sub, and Gil is 22-8 with six TKOs/KOs and noine subs. Morales will be the significantly higher output striker, averaging five and a half SLpM compared to Gil’s just over three. Burns will have to make up for that discrepancy if he can’t get Morales to the mat consistently. Like Whoa! Hit that Black Rob! Morales is the (-950) favorite, and Burns is the (+600) mangy-ass dog. Morales should be a heavy favorite, but (-950) is diabolical work. The play for Morales is a late TKO/KO. The play for Burns is a decision. I don’t see him finishing Morales. 

The main event dub streak came to an unexpected halt when Jack Della “Soul” stayed upright and banged his way to the title. I didn’t see that one coming. I counted my main event dub before it hatched. I’m guilty of that again this week. I love Gil Burns, but it’s hard to see him winning this fight. He hasn’t looked good at all recently. Morales vs. Prates? Make that shit happen. Michael Morales via TKO, round four. Put it on wax.    

Props

Burns: TKO/KO (+2200) Sub (+1400) Dec (+1400) 

Morales: TKO/KO (-150) Sub (+1600) Dec (+200)

Winner: Michael Morales | Method: TKO Rd.4

Paul Craig (+390) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (-550)

Craig: DK: $6.8k | Bellato: DK: $9.4k

This one should be a wild clusterf**k. Rodolfo Bellato has a Death Wish like Charles Bronson. Every Bellato fight is a twenty-point comeback like the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Bellato has to be read his last rites before he starts fighting. He has to start DMT trippin’ like he’s in the Amazon rainforest sippin’ ayahuasca with Rafiki from The Lion King before he starts fighting. His Betty starts dating again before he starts fighting. Bellato has been dead on his feet in the opening minutes of his first two UFC bouts. He takes more damage than a student driver car. Kevin Spacey tied Bellato to a chair and drowned him in a bowl of soup in the movie Seven because Bellato is a glutton for punishment. Bellato doesn’t truly feel alive until he is nearly dead. 

But once Bellato sees the light, he turns into Steph Curry in the gold medal game. Fook Anik and DC, the NBA Jam announcer calls Bellato’s fights. Right hook, “He’s heating up!” Winging left hook:  Boom Shakalaka!” Overhand right: “He’s on fire!” Bellato doesn’t come with any instructions. He only has one action button on his back labeled “Punch.” I liken Bellato’s robotic power striking to a level boss who can sap half your energy with one strike. But once you figure out the pattern, he’s easy to beat. Homie is all offense and no defense. He has high cholesterol from eating punches. This guy gains twenty pounds during a fight from all the bombs he eats. I‘ve told you before, never trust dudes named Rodolfo. They never wear shirts and are built like American Gladiators. And they aren’t even American. Rodolfos will show up to Sunday service chest neked, glistening from skin toner.   

Bellato is 12-2 with seven TKOs/KOs and four subs and is coming in off a draw against Jimmy Crute. Bellto won the last two rounds after giving up a 10-8 round in the first. He averages close to six and a half SLpM compared to Paul Craig’s two and a half. This is Bellato’s fight to lose. He rocks a one hundred percent takedown defense. That’s not a good look for Paul Craig, a ground specialist who struggles to land takedowns.  

Losing five of the last six and a current three-fight losing streak isn’t a good look either. And Andre Muniz isn’t walking through that cage door because he got his ass cracked just a couple weeks ago. Craig’s wheels haven’t fallen off quite yet, but with no tires, they look like sparklers on the 4^th of July as he cruises down the street. My man has to be hitched and towed into the Octagon. He’s starting to look like Doc Hudson after crashing on the beach. It wasn’t long ago that Paul Craig was one of the livest dogs in the game. This guy could pull a sub out of a hat at any time, even after taking a Rodolfo Bellato beating. But those days might be Dead and Gone like Justin Timberlake and T.I. Yo! Hit that shit!  

Of his last three losses, the Bo Nickal L is the worst. That Bo Nickal L aged like Gary Busey. That’s a cockeyed-ass loss. That L had Ned Stark’s head looking at Paul Craig sideways. But you can never take Magomed Ankalaev’s head and Jamahal Hill’s arm away from him. Craig submitted the current champ and the former champ. But now, I don’t know what he’s good at. He can submit anyone in the division, but he can’t get the fight to the mat. He has the H.H. Holmes house guard, traps around every corner, but he can’t get anyone to stay the night. Without takedowns, Craig just wanders around the cage like Denzel in The Book of Eli. It’s like he’s in story mode but not completing any objectives. They call him the wanderer. Yeah, the wanderer. He roams around, around, around, around, around. Hit that Dion “The Wanderer!” I ain’t gonna lie to ya, I had to look that one up.   

Paul Craig's striking? He got out-struck by Bo Nickal in his last bout. Not a single takedown was attempted in that fight. That’s all there is to say about Craig’s striking. He’s a better kicker than puncher. If the fight stays standing, Craig will likely get finished early. Bellato is the (-525) favorite, and Craig is the (+375) ASPCA commercial dog. There was once a time when I would start looking at MLS listings in Malibu at the site of those odds next to Craig’s name. But those days are long gone. The play for Bellato is a TKO/KO, and the play for Craig is a submission. I don’t know how, but if anyone can submit Bellato, Paul Craig can. Rodolfo Bellato via TKO, round two. On wax.     

Props

Craig: TKO/KO (+1400) Sub (+800) Dec (+1400) 

Bellato: TKO/KO (-185) Sub (+500) Dec (+500)

Winner: Rodolfo Bellato | Method: TKO Rd.2

Sodiq Yusuff (+110) vs. Mairon Santos (-130)

Yusuff: DK: $7.9k | Santos: DK:$8.3k

“Don’t Sweat The” Sodiq Yusuff is back. He’s MMA’s Icarus who flew too close to the sun against Edson Barboza. They tried to tell him to turn back at Mercury, but he didn’t listen. After dropping Barboza in the opening minutes and swarming all over him, Yusuff caught the ass-kicking speed wobbles like he was bombing down an X Games course on a long board. Homie brought flowers, opened doors, and picked up the check, and still couldn’t close the deal. My man was premature like Jim in Naida’s room (IYKYK). Sodiq looked like Randy Marsh covered in ectoplasm after nearly finishing Barboza in the first round, “It was a spooky ghost!” Sodiq was gassed in the second round and spent the ensuing twenty minutes eating shots like teenage Kanye. To his credit, Yusuff made it to the final bell.  

I forgot Yusuff fought Diego Lopez after the Barboza fight. That fight lasted only a minute and a half, so don’t beat yourself up if you forgot too. Lopes ran over Yusuff like Suge Knight valet parking – like Pete Rose running over the catcher in the All-Star game. But 2025 is a new year for Sodiq. I picked Sodiq to win both those fights. Mostly because of his right hand. He can take away half of the Octagon with his right hand. His right hand is Prime Time Deion Sanders in this bish. Sodiq Island. You have to overplay Sodiq’s right hand and make him throw with his left. I think I get caught up in Sodiq’s physical attributes. He’s a little ball of explosive muscle with a style similar to Michael Chandler’s. Yusuff is a wrestler striker minus the wrestling. His special move is the Steffi Graf tennis grunt. Every strike sounds like he’s serving a 100-mph ace. He grunts with every strike and even uses grunt feints, grunting but not throwing anything.   

Yusuff’s major malfunction is his dubs. His dubs look like Buzz’s girlfriend, “Buzz, your girlfriend, woof!” Sodiq has nothing but paper bag dubs. Taking one for the team dubs. All his dubs are suspect like wanted posters. Bruce Leeroy or Andre Fili; take your pick as to which is his best win. Sodiq will be the more powerful striker against Mairon Santos, but Santos will be the more diverse striker. Sodiq throws mostly fundamental hand combinations while Santos mixes in kicks. Yusuff is 13-4 with six TKOs/KOs and one sub. He will be the higher output striker, averaging over five and a half SLpM compared to Santos’ four. The key for Yusuff will be closing the distance and pressuring Santos, especially against the cage.   

Mairon Santos won the most recent Ultimate Fighter. He looked like a killer in the finale, scoring a second-round TKO to win the show. His potential is a Madden noinety. But I had to hit the brakes like the lights came on in the club after his second appearance against Francis Marshall. That was as suspect a win as you will ever see. Santos didn’t claim that dub on his taxes. That dub landed him a top ten spot on America’s Most Wanted. Dog the Bounty Hunter might show up at the weigh-ins to collect. But, as they say: Never look a gift dub in the mouf. And we don’t apologize for dubs at the WKO.   

Santos’ nickname is “The Legend,” but after the Marshall fight, I think the name refers to the bottom of a map. Legend-legends aren’t crowned in the minor leagues. There are times when I catch faint whiffs of Charles Oliveira when I watch Santos’ striking. He has clean, long kickboxing with sneaky kicks and knees. But his major malfunction is that he is too precise when choosing his openings. He waits for perfect conditions to let his hands sail. He only throws bachelor strikes – single shots. Overall, Santos needs more urgency. Yo! Hit that Foreigner “Urgent!” Sometimes, I can’t tell if Santos is fighting or watching the paint dry on Jalen Green’s nails. He lets too many good pitches go by without taking a hack. He fights like he gets six strikes. Santos has to lead the dance and not allow for so much dead air between engagements. If he comes out with the same tepid flow as he did against Marshall, Sodiq will run away with it.   

Santos is 15-1 with eight TKOs/KOs and no subs. None. I wouldn’t be surprised if Yusuff tries to wrestle early. Santos will be the (-130) favorite, and Yusuff will be the (+110) live-ass dog. Sodiq gassed after the first round against Barboza but still landed one hundred seventy-eight significant strikes. One hundred probably came in the first round, though. Santos’s output worries me. He allowed Francis Marshall to outwork him and should have taken home an L that night. Both guys are finishing threats, but I like playing a decision. But Yusuff has been chin-checked a lot recently, and I’d give Santos a slightly better shot at a finish. Map legend, Legend of Zelda, John Legend, doesn’t matter - Yusuff, in three. Sodiq Yusuff via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props

Santos: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+2200) Dec (+175) 

Yusuff: TKO/KO (+550) Sub (+1200) Dec (+200)

Winner: Sodiq Yusuff | Method: Decision

Nursulton Ruziboev (-310) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+255)

Ruziboev: DK: $9k | Stoltzy: DK: $7.2k

The Nursulton of Swat, aka the King of Crash, aka The Colossus of Clout, the Colossus of Clout, aka... “The Great Bambino!” is back. Nursulton Ruziboev came into the UFC with over forty career fights to his name and was on the fast track to the top of the division when he ran into the welterweight division’s dark horse, the Seabiscuit of that bish, Joaquin Buckley. Ruziboev lost a decision that night, but that loss aged like Topanga from Boy Meets World. That Buckley loss is like getting dumped by Mackenzie Dern. At least you were dating Mackenzie Dern. And if losing to Buckley was like being dumped by Mackenzie Dern, then his comeback dub against a late replacement blank profile was like taking home Li Jinglliang’s sister after last call to regain your confidence. But it won’t be that easy this time around. Ol’ Stoltzy is back, Dustin Stoltzfus, and it’s taken me a while to reach this conclusion, but he’s anything but a Stoltzpuss. This could turn into a trap fight for Ruziboev if Stoltzy can find a way to get him to the mat.   

Ruziboev reminds me of a house-Shavkat on the rocks, shaken, not stirred. His striking is slightly stiff and robotic like Shavkat but without the subtle slips and counters. He’s also a savage from the top position but lacks the traditional takedowns of Shavkat. Ruziboev lacks classic level changes and uses reverse psychology takedowns to relocate the fight. He dares you to take him down - double-dog dares you. He will lie down in front of you and beckon you to come hither seductively like Nick Diaz did against Anderson Silva. And as soon as you secure the top position, it’s Kimura time! Ruziboev uses Kimura attempts from the bottom position to submit and to sweep and end up in the top position. The moment you start thinking shit’s sweet, you end up on your back, eating elbows and hammerfists. Ruziboev’s training camp received big dollar contributions from bidet lobbyists. Every time Ruziboev fights, bidet stocks go up. This MF will have you wiping in the southpaw stance real fookin’ quick. Most of you can’t even use a spoon left-handed, much less wipe your ass left-handed. 

On the feet, Ruziboev is lanky and janky, and you already know that’s a Deadly Combination like Big L and 2Pac. Ruziboev’s path to victory will be on the feet. He can mix it up with Stoltzfus on the mat, but on the mat is the only place Stoltzy can win this fight. Ruziboev can keep Stoltzy at the end of his long strikes while setting up power shots. Ruziboev’s major malfunction is his output. He averages just over two and a half SLpM compared to Stoltzy’s three and a half. But that doesn’t matter because Ruziboev is a finisher. Ruziboev is 35-9 with thirteen TKOs/KOs and twenty subs. This guy could finish the number pie.  

Dustin Stoltzfus has the aura of a True Value Dan Henderson, minus the H-Bomb. Stoltzy’s Hendo Bomb (Dan Henderson’s trademark right hand) wouldn’t have any problems getting past TSA. Stoltzy is a gentleman on the feet and a freak on the mat. He’s a modern-day Johnny Appleseed on the mat. If this guy gets hold of you, he plants you beneath the Octagon with slams and ground and pound. “You’ve been working at this plant so long, you’re a plant. Look at your boots! They’re starting to grow roots!” Stoltzy is more of a Greco belly-to-belly wrestler than a level change freestyle wrestler. A telling stat: Stoltzy didn’t score a takedown in three of his four UFC losses. He averages two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes while Ruziboev rocks a zero percent takedown defense. Ruziboev was 0-4 defending takedowns against Joaquin Buckley. That’s not a good look.   

But, as you can guess, Stoltzy’s major malfunction is his striking. He’s an Amish striker; he doesn’t believe in stand-up violence. Stoltzy has osteoporosis hands, porcelain hands. And he moves like an action figure with a giant seven-year-old hand tottering him back and forth. He’s clumsy like toddler on his feet, and if he can’t get the fight (any fight) to the mat, that’s that ass. Stoltzy is 16-6 with three TKOs/KOs and six subs, including 3-5 in the UFC, and is coming in off a first-round KO of Marc-Andre Barriault.   

Ruziboev will be the (-290) favorite, and Stoltzfus will be the (+240) live dog. Stoltzfus can win this fight by putting Ruziboev on his back as long as he can avoid the Kimura sweep. Ruziboev gave up a round of control time to Buckley, and Stoltzy is a better pure wrestler than Buckley. This is a dangerous trap fight for Ruziboev. The play for Ruziboev is a TKO/KO. Four of Stoltzy’s five UFC losses came via finish. The play for Stoltzfus is a decision. In forty-six career scraps, Ruziboev has only been finished twice. I don’t feel good about this pick, but I have to roll with the more well-rounded fighter. Nursulton Ruziboev via TKO, round two. Put it on wax.  

Props

Ruziboev: TKO/KO (-135) Sub (+500) Dec (+600)  

Stoltzfus: TKO/KO (+1000) Sub (+650) Dec (+750)

Winner: Nursulton Riziboev | Method: TKO Rd.2

Julian Erosa (+155) vs. Mel Costa (-175)

Erosa: DK: $7.5k | Costa: DK: $8.7k

If you want to feel alive again, start betting on Julian Erosa fights. Only true gambling savages drop Andy Jacks on Erosa fights. When you bet against Julian Erosa, best believe he’s going to pull of some shit like Amber Heard’s maids changing the sheets. And when you bet on Erosa, best believe he will get KO’d with the quickness before you can even get the J lit. If Erosa can’t finish you, he commits Seppuku and finishes himself. Either way, the fight ain’t going the distance. For better or worse, Erosa’s last five bouts ended in the first round, and he is currently riding a three-fight dub streak. So is “Sideshow” Mel Costa. Both these guys are NBA Jam on fire right meow, sinking halfcourt shots like free throws. This one is as close as you can get to a guaranteed finish one way or the other.   

Julian Erosa fights like a love-stricken damsel pulling rose petals, “To sub him, or to sub him not? To KO him, or to KO him not?” The man with one of the flyest nicknames in the game, “Juicy J,” has twenty-six career finishes with a 31-11 career record. This guy has more finishes than Tyreke Hill last year. Every fight, Erosa opens up shop like the Ruff Ryders. This guy gets kicked out of the ass-kicking buffet after closing like Homer at the Frying Dutchman. Erosa graduated from Chito Vera University with a double major in TKO/KOs and submissions. Like Chito, Erosa throws every weapon Willy-Nilly. He would throw Lethwei headbutts if they were legal. And on the mat, Erosa is submission-over-everything. His bread and butter is countering takedowns with guillotine chokes. Two of his last three dubs came via guillotine. But when Erosa isn’t kicking ass, he’s getting his ass kicked.   

That’s because he’s a devout defensive atheist. He was excommunicated from the Church of Defense, where Sean Strickland was the former Archbishop. Erosa is a defensive heretic. Defense is nothing but a wild conspiracy theory to Erosa. That’s why betting for or against Erosa is the ultimate extreme sport. Betting on Erosa is like ordering Bozo the Clown for your kid’s third birthday and Pennywise shows up. You never get what you expect. That’s why Erosa has a two-star rating on Amazon. Fantasy-wise, Erosa is the ultimate all-or-nothing roster pick. His upside is the moon, but his downside is the crab people at the center of the earth.   

The Vitiligo sleeper is back. Don’t mess with kids with Vitiligo. They generally have a short fuse.  

“How’s the reception out there?” 

“A little spotty.” 

“WTF did you say!?” 

Weird reference: Mel Costa looks like Archangel from X-Men. Once you see it, you can’t unsee it. I don’t even know how to explain it. After six fights in the UFC and a 4-2 record, I still don’t know where I stand with Mel Costa. He’s good at everything but not special in anything. His style is like eating Flan; it’s just whatever. Costa has solid, technical stand-up, and his left leg is a nifty Swiss Arm Knife that he uses to throw teeps and round kicks. But overall, he’s not that impressive like Michelangelo’s David’s David. Costa has occasional mean streaks but often remains even tempered and doesn’t fight with a high sense of urgency. That will have to change against Julian Erosa.  

On the mat, Costa has slick offensive grappling and submissions. But defensively, his fifty-four percent takedown defense is almost laughable. In his previous bout, Christian Rodriguez scored six takedowns, and they were all foot sweeps. I'm talking school yard trips. Costa fell for the same trick six times. Trip me once, shame on me. Trip me six times... This guy falls for anything like your mammy opening spam mail because it says she has an unclaimed prize. Costa is 23-7 with seven TKOs/KOs and eight subs. Erosa will be the much higher striker, averaging six and a half SLpM compared to Costa’s just under four. But Erosa’s numbers are skewed because his fights rarely go the distance.   

Costa will be the (-180) favorite, and Erosa is the (+160) live-ass dog. I love plus-money Julian Erosa. Costa averages nearly two takedowns per fifteen minutes, but he is far from an elite wrestler. If he gets lazy, Erosa will snatch his neck. When Erosa locks up a Gilly, D’arce, or Anaconda, it’s a wrap. Few fighters have survived Erosa’s chokes to talk about it. And on the feet, Erosa is more dangerous than Costa. But Erosa is also far more vulnerable. The tricky part of betting an Erosa finish is deciding between a sub and a TKO/KO. Both outcomes are always in play. But if Erosa wins, it will be by finish. I think the play for Costa is a submission. I can see him getting Erosa’s back and locking in a choke amid a wild scramble. Damn, I’m stuck on this one. I have to ride with the more technical, consistent fighter. Mel Costa via rear-naked choke, round three. Wax on, wax off. 

Props

Costa: TKO/KO (+165) Sub (+650) Dec (+300)  

Erosa: TKO/KO (+800) Sub (+400) Dec (+500)

Winner: Mel Costa | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Sodiq Yusuff (7.9k): It will be a tough week for the Value Menu. Finishes will be hard to come by. Sodiq Yusuff’s right hand will give him a distant shot at a finish against the fairly untested Marion Santos. Yusuff will be the higher output striker who has eclipsed the one hundred strikes mark multiple times, including once in a three-round bout. This will be a stand-up banger with a low probability of the fight going to the mat. These fighters are evenly matched and should produce respectable striking stats both ways. Yusuff provides moderate to high striking totals with the one-punch power for a possible finish, especially early.  

Julian Erosa ($7.5k): Erosa is the only true finishing threat on the value menu this week. He’s also a finished threat. Kill-or-be-killed: That’s Julian Erosa. Erosa has twenty-six career finishes with a near-even mix of TKOs/KOs and submissions. This guy is an all-around finisher on the mat and on the feet. The problem is, he has been finished seven times in his career. He is especially vulnerable on his feet. Erosa is all offense and no defense and tends to receive as much as he dols out. At some point, Mel Costa will try to relocate the fight to the mat, and that’s when Erosa will be the most dangerous. He is particularly handy with guillotines/head and arms chokes when defending takedowns. If Costa gets lazy, Erosa will catch him slipping and snatch his neck. 

Dustin Stoltzfus ($7.2k): Nursulton Ruziboev rocks a zero-point zero percent takedown defense inside the Octagon. And Dustin Stoltzfus is a formidable wrestler/grappler. Joaquin Buckley took down Ruziboev four times and exposed his ground game from the bottom. Ruziboev is handy with Kimuras from the bottom, but other than that, he is a prude from his back. He just lies there, making you feel insecure while you ground and pound away, unsure if you’re doing a good job. If Stoltzy can get Ruziboev down early, he will also be able to get him down late. But if Stoltzy can’t secure an early takedown, he will be assed-out on his feet like Tyson backstage. 

 $6k Clearance Rack

Luana Pinheiro ($6.9K): The Clearance Rack is back this week. Luana Pinheiro is the only option that will be guaranteed to put some points on the board. She will be up against Tecia Pennington, who is far from a world-beater. Pinheiro is a live dog in this matchup. At the very least, she will notch moderate significant strikes in a fight that will certainly go the distance. The other Clearance Rack options will have trouble making it out of the first round. 

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Julian Erosa (+155): Someone will get got in this matchup. It’s 50/50 who that will be. Erosa has won three in a row and two via guillotine chokes. Everyone wants to take down Erosa. But when they do, he snatches their necks. Erosa will give up the takedown for a chance to lock in a choke. Erosa submitted Christian Rodriguez, whom Mel Costa struggled against in his most recent bout. They say MMA math doesn’t add up. But sometimes it does. Erosa will always be a live-ass dog.   

Dustin Stoltzfus (+260): You know it will be a rough night for dogs when you see Ol’ Stoltzy as a Twenty Twen-Twen Sleeper. This one feels like a long shot, but at the same time, not so much of a long shot. Ruziboev has major holes in his game, and those are his takedown defense (0.0%) and his guard from his back. If Joaquin Buckley could get Ruziboev to the mat, so can Stoltzfus. Two of Stoltzy’s three UFC dubs came via finish, including a KO of Marc-Andre Barriault in his most recent bout. I think a finish will be a long shot, but Stoltzy can ride out the majority of rounds from the top position. But if at any point he runs into a takedown wall, he will be a silhouette hanging at the end of a range on his feet.   

Sodiq Yusuff (+110): I struggled to find three solid sleepers this week. There are a lot of lopsided matchups. But Yusuff vs. Santos will be a classic FX Nip/Tuck technical kickboxing match. This one has split decision written all over it like male anatomy drawn all over the face of the first person to pass out at the shindig. The single best weapon in this matchup will be Yusuff’s right hand. He has the one-punch power that Santos lacks. Also, Yusuff’s only losses came against high-level competition, and I’m not sure Mairon Santos is at that level... yet.  

Pick ‘Em

Gabe Green (+190) vs. Matheus Camilo (-230)  

Winner: Matheus Camilo 

Method: Decision 

Jared Gordon (-115) vs. Thiago Moises (-105)  

Winner: Jared Gordon 

Method: Decision 

Yadier Del Valle (-480) vs. Connor Matthews (+350)  

Winner: Yadier Del Valle 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Luana Santos (-170) vs. Tainara Lisboa (+145) 

Winner: Tainara Lisboa 

Method: Decision 

Elise Reed (+430) vs. Denise Gomes (-625) 

Winner: Denise Gomes 

Method: Decision 

Hyun Sung Park (-175) vs. Carlos Hernandez (+150) 

Winner: Hyun Sung Park 

Method: Decision 

Tecia Pennington (-330) vs. Luana Pinheiro (+265) 

Winner: Luana Pinheiro 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.