Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card 

Jared Cannonier (+105) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (-125)

Cannonier: DK: $7.6k | Imavov: DK:$8.6k

Jared Cannonier is half the man he used to be. He used to be like Eddie in The Nutty Professor, Mike Myers when he was Fat Bastard or Gwyneth in Shallow Hall – my man used to rock an obese suit (fat suit if you want to be a Richard about it) and compete in the heavyweight division. Getting knocked out will do wonders for jump-starting a weight loss journey.   

“Doc, I need some of that Ozempic.”  

“I got something better.”  

“Really! What?”  

(Scribbles on a prescription note pad, then unleashes a Rick James Power Slap)

I don’t know what happened to “He Went To” Jared Cannonier – maybe the producers of the Life and Times of Jared Cannonier decided to write in a David Goggins arc after season one, and he started doing twenty-three and a half hours of burpees a day. Or maybe he got his hands on some of that “Oh-oh-oh Lizzo!” Side note: South Park, I started this Lizzo shit! My man’s arteries were being held open with Breathe Right strips. Cannonier fighting at heavyweight and light heavyweight was like warming up in the on-deck circle with a donut around his waist. When he cut to middleweight, he took off the donut and suddenly had Ryan Garcia's hand speed and had to be tethered to the Octagon like an astronaut in space, lest he catch a draft from the arena’s AC and float away like that kid on Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. 

After back-to-back losses to Jan Blachowicz and Dominick Reyes at light heavyweight, Cannonier has gone 7-2 at middleweight, with his only losses coming to Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker, two former champs. He has dubs over Anderson Silva, Jack Hermansson, Kelvin Gastelum, Derek Brunson, Sean Strickland, and Marvin Vettori. Vettori was his most recent dub. In the first round, Marvin had Cannonier on skates like prime Bryan Boitano, doing triple Lutzes and double axles. But Cannonier can’t blame me; I told him on this here Weekly KO to stop fookin’ around with the southpaw stance. But they don’t hear me, though – DMX voice. The instant he turned southpaw, Vettori started cooking him. Cue that Adrian Broner, aka Bad Ass Hannibal Buress, “I ain’t gonna lie. I’m getting cooked.” Jared was the centerpiece of the Thanksgiving spread, a holiday ham, that year. Jenny-O. But Cannonier survived like Leo after he got half of his ass ate by that bear, crawled back to civilization, and exacted revenge like someone jacked his ‘69 Mustang and killed his dog. He went straight Baba Yaga and spent the next four rounds cracking Vettori’s ass like a Diddy party initiation.   

Yeah, Jared has that Black Mirror Metalhead dog in him. And at middleweight, he has that OG Stank, aka that Stankonia power. His right hand will turn your pound cake to red velvet real fookin’ quick. There’s nothing intricate or tricky about Cannonier’s style; he’s a straight kickboxer, no chaser, and attacks with basic hand combinations. But, even when his output isn’t overwhelming, his pressure is. He stays in your face and gives opponents anxiety attacks as he compresses the cage with constant menacing forward pressure. Cannonier isn’t a high-output fighter, but in each of his last two bouts (both five-rounders), Cannonier landed two hunnid forty-one strikes against Vettori and one hunnid forty-one against Strickland. Cannonier and Nassourdine Imavov average four and a half SLpM, but Cannon will have the clear power advantage. Imavov’s style is speed, and Cannonier’s is power. His game plan will be to cut off the cage, march down Imavov, and use constant pressure to slowly drain Imavov’s energy. Imavov’s cardio is suspect like _____. 

Nassourdine Imavov’s style is missing something like watching Seinfeld after Larry David left or The Office after Michael Scott got married. He has now had eight fights in the promotion, and I liken him to the Kirk Cousins of the UFC. He looks elite, but he isn’t. He does just enough to trick some team into giving him noinety million guaranteed just to choke in the big game. He’s good, and he’ll get you ten to twelve dubs a season, but you’ll never win a chip with him. The Imavov illusion begins with his hand speed. His hands are so fast it’s like he hit you yesterday. On some Paranormal Activity type-ish, you just start getting lumped up in bed the night before the fight. When I see Imavov fight, I see a JV Gegard Mousasi - a division two Gegard Mousasi. Imavov’s hands are tight like nuts and bolts, and he has a nifty Luka step-back right-hand counter. Overall, he’s a solid striker. But his hand speed tends to wear off like a temporary power-up, then it’s like the lights came on in the club, and the noine you were buying drinks for all night turns into Li Jingliang. He’s a catfish striker: The first two and a half rounds are online, and the rest of the fight is meeting in person. Go back to the Joaquin Buckley fight. Buckley had Imavov in big trouble late in that fight.   

But Imavov can supplement his striking with wrestling/grappling. He averages just shy of one takedown per fifteen minutes but scored three in two rounds against Chris Curtis and two against Buckley. He uses his wrestling sparingly when it’s a little too risky on the feet. I’m sure that will be the case at some point against Cannonier, who rocks a sixty-three percent takedown defense like Lotto’s tank top screamin’, “I don’t fit you!” I think Imavov will try to steal early rounds with top control in hopes that he can get enough of a lead just in case he has to limp to the finish line. While it stays on the feet, Imavov will use his speed and length to keep Cannonier on the outside while maintaining the center of the cage. Cannonier will try to box him in against the cage where he can unload bombs. 

The numbers: Cannonier is 17-6 with ten TKO/KOs and two subs, and Imavov is 13-4 with five TKO/KOs and four subs. Cannonier is the slightly better finishing threat, but I think the play for this one is a decision one way or the other. Jared has fought five rounds four times, and all four fights went the distance. And Imavov fought five rounds twice, and they both went the distance. Imavov is the (-130) favorite, and Cannonier is the live-ass (+110) dog. Imavov faded heavily in his last bout against Roman Dolidze after failing to finish Dolidze in the first round. He also faded against Buckley and Strickland. If he fades this time, Cannonier will be a late-finishing threat. Cannonier can go five hard rounds and has been in the cage with everybody who is anybody in the middleweight division. Fantasy-wise, I think both fighters will eclipse the one-hundred-strikes mark. If Imavov doesn’t get Cannonier down to the mat early, he won’t do it late.   

I was rooting against the main event winning streak last week. If that was the last time we saw The Diamond, at least he went out like Boromir, arrows in the chest and still swinging until the bitter end. He made it a trademark Dustin Poirier dogfight and gave himself a chance to win. But we’re back in the main event win column, and, as you know, you never apologize for a dub. I think Imavov will get off to a fast start, and Cannonier will have to make up ground late. But I’m taking the dog. There’s too much value not to. Jared Cannonier via decision. Put it on wax. 

Props 

Cannonier: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+2000) Dec (+225)  

Imavov: TKO/KO (+350) Sub (+750) Dec (+225) 

Winner: Jared Cannonier | Method: Decision

Dominick Reyes (+175) vs. Dustin Jacoby (-225)

Reyes: DK: $7.2k | Jacoby: DK: $9k

Dominick Reyes was an inside job. A special Dominick Reyes commission was convened after his loss to Ryan Spann, which determined that a single Spann jab caused the Reyes collapse. But the public has rejected those results, citing the fact that a jab, and only a jab, couldn’t cause Reyes to descend into his own footprint at free-fall speeds. But regardless of what brought Reyes down, he’s back after a one-and-a-half-year lay-off and is looking to go to war with a party that had nothing to do with his collapse.  Regardless of the accusation that he had anything to do with 11/12, Dustin Jacoby will be stepping into the cage across from Reyes on behalf of the US government, hoping to recreate the same results from the Spann fight and put to bed all the conspiracy theories insinuating the government's involvement.   

One positive resulting from Reyes’s suspicious collapse is that Reyes is now set to make his Hollywood debut in a leading role in the 2025 summer blockbuster release Controlled Demolition Man, a sequel to the 90s classic starring Sylvester Stallone and Wesley Snipes, Demolition Man. Reyes, aka Building 8, hasn’t won a fight since 2019. After starting his career 12-0, his career took the Delonte West exit on the freeway, and his record now sits at 12-4. That means Reyes has lost four straight fights, which should have been only three, except Eisenhower, Ford, and Bush Sr. jacked him for the belt he won against Jon Jones in the restroom at a notorious Valero in the middle of the Nevada desert. Reyes has lost three straight by TKO/KO; Motel 6 can’t even keep the light on for Reyes. But less old shit and more new shit. 

I see Brendan Shaub 2.0 when I see Dominick Reyes fight. That’s not a knock against Reyes or Shaub. Never forget Shaub KO’d Cro Cop, one of the scariest MFs in MMA history. But, like Shaub, Reyes’s stand-up is power-hand-dependent, and overall, his striking is fairly vanilla. If you take away Reyes’s left hand, he’s pretty much assed-out like Bieber in a Diddy champagne room. He spams left hands like “Scam Likely” calls in your “Recents” log. The 2-3 is Reyes’s best combo, and he still has fight-ending power. It’s possible that Jiri Prochazka did Reyes worse than Spann did, KO’ing Reyes with a spinning back elbow, but Reyes had big moments in that fight. He had Jiri jitterbugging at one point and even flash-KO'd Jiri with an up-kick from the bottom. Against Jacoby, Reyes will have to put his troubled past in the rearview and throw hands like he’s still 12-0. Volume will be the key for Reyes. He averages just over four and a half SLpM to Jacoby’s five and a half, but Jacoby’s kryptonite is defending volume attacks. Reyes has to commit to combinations and keep Jacoby moving backward as he tends to retreat against the cage and take heavy damage.   

Dustin Jacoby, the former Glory Kickboxing World Champion, has become the Vernon Davis of the UFC. “You can’t win with him. Can’t do it.” You can’t win a parlay with him; he can’t be trusted. Send him to the showers with no chanclas. Ol’ athletes' foot-ass. Jacoby can’t be trusted in crunch time. He does just enough to lose close fights. After losing three of his last four bouts, maybe we need Jacoby Dustin to show up. He needs to do the exact opposite of what he has been doing inside the cage lately. When he would normally punch, he should kick, bob when he would weave, and throw anytime he thinks he shouldn’t. His major malfunction is that Jacoby often fights at a scrimmage pace like he’s afraid to pull a hammy before the big game. Someone needs to grab the Olympic torch and light a fart under his ass. This ain’t an E-40 track, Dustin! “Gas, brake, dip...” Just stay on the fookin’ gas! Get hyphy in that bish, Dustin. 

Jacoby is at his best when he uses angles. When he attacks up the middle and back pivots in a straight line to avoid strikes, he gets pieced up Willie. But when he maintains lateral movement and enters the pocket at an angle, he lands clean shots and avoids damage. He is the superior striker in this matchup, with more tools in his fanny pack. But he often makes terrible decisions in the cage and allows close fights to slip away from him. Jacoby wins this fight in the pocket, and Reyes wins it at range. Whoever can fight at their range more consistently will win. 

The numbers: Reyes is 12-4 with seven TKO/KOs and two subs, and Jacoby is 19-8 with twelve TKO/KOs and one sub. In ten UFC bouts, for better or worse, Reyes has only heard the final bell twice. Reyes' value will be in a TKO finish, while Dustin can outpoint Reyes while landing at volume. Jacoby will be the (-210) favorite, and Reyes will be the (+170) live dog. Again, Jacoby can’t be trusted. His late fight IQ deteriorates to short bus status, and if Reyes can keep it close, he can steal the fight at any time with his left hand. But the big question is, what will Reyes look like after four straight losses and a lengthy layoff? This is a brutal pick; I have no idea on this one. Active fighters have owned inactive fighters this year... Dustin Jacoby via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props 

Jacoby: TKO/KO (+110) Sub (+1600) Dec (+300)  

Reyes: TKO/KO (+450) Sub (+1200) Dec (+550) 

Winner: Dustin Jacoby | Method: Decision

Ricky Turcios (+195) vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (-240)

Turcios: DK: $6.9k | Rosas Jr.: DK:$9.3k

This fight was scheduled back in February and was cancelled backstage just before the fighters were set to make the walk to the cage. This right here is a copy and paste job from that fight card because nothing has changed.  

What the hell are we doing here? Ya’ll want a five-star Michelin meal with Dollar General ingredients. Ya’ll want a Picasso and hand me a stick and point me to a patch of dirt. This one will go down in the anals of UFC history as one of the ugliest matchups of all time. And, no, I didn’t spell that wrong. This is a matchup of a boy with man’s strength and a man with boy’s strength. Boyz II Men vs. Men II Boyz. It was just one fight ago that Raul Rosas Jr. got exposed like Black’s Beach. Indecent exposure. It turned out that the eighteen-year-old didn’t have an eighteen-year-old's stamina when he fought Christian Rodriguez. After fighting an Ice Road Trucker from Alaska in his last bout, the UFC continues riding the brakes on Rosas Jr., handing him “Ain’t Nuthin’ Pretty” Ricky Turcios. This will be a disjointed, confusing affair that will have you wondering if that Bammer you’re smoking turned into some top shelf.   

Raul Rosas Jr. is a Cinderella man. Once the clock strikes five minutes, his fight shorts turn into Daisy Dukes. My man’s up Shit’s Creek with no floaties. He looks like the Saw doll backstage without makeup. He’s a walking friend zone. He looks like Li Jinliang’s wingman. His head is the physical representation of his ego. He has an Easter Island head, and it takes a whole village to roll him over logs to get him into the Octagon. But don’t let any of that fool you. In the first round, Rosas Jr. Is a grappling savage. He rag dolls grown men and is freakishly strong for his age. But his strength is a gift and a curse. He relies on power to muscle opponents to the mat instead of relying on technique. Rosas Jr. often takes perilous grappling risks, giving up position because he knows he can power his way out of trouble. But that’s also why he gasses so quickly.   

On the feet, Rosas is a dubstep striker; he just spins around and flails his arms and legs. He fights with his ego and just engages in reckless firefights and nothing but uncalculated 50/50 exchanges. Ricky Turcios is a Buzz Lightyear away from being a dangerous striker, so this will be a good fight for Rosas to work on his stand-up. He can survive on the feet with a guy like Turcios but not with many others. The key for Rosas will be rag-dolling Turcios to the mat, taking his back in a scramble, and locking in a sub. Rosas is 8-1 for his career with two TKO/KOs and five subs. Six of his eight dubs came in the first round. Rosas’ Fantasy value will be strictly in an early finish, most likely a submission. If he can’t score a first-round finish, you’ll be working with under one and a half SLpM.    

Ricky Turcios looks like the homie with the disco hair in No Country for Old Men. He reminds me of the male version of Juliana Miller. Or maybe Juliana Miller is the female version of Ricky Turcios? Diary of a Wimpy Kid is a Ricky Turcios autobiography. He fights like the coach’s son on the team; he only plays because his dad is the coach. If I had to pick any fighter in the UFC to fight, I would pick Ricky Turcios. They call him Mattress Ricky. He has those Tempur-Pedic memory foam hands. They just contour to your face. It feels like you’re getting a facial at a day spa when Ricky starts putting hands on you. He’s a prototypical Tre Styles striker, “I’m sick of this shit!” He gyrates like a washer machine and whips his arms back and forth. I don’t know what it is; I can’t make sense of Ricky Turcios. His style is like reading William Faulkner, confusing. It’s almost like he’s playing a different sport than his opponent.  

I can’t think of anything that Ricky Turcios does particularly well. His technique in all areas is a Madden twenty, except for cardio. This guy has some Merab cardio. He can keep moving and gesticulating for an entire fifteen minutes while holding his breath. Turcios is also good at scrambling on the mat and outhustling opponents throughout the fight. Turcios is 12-3 with three TKO/KOs and one sub and averages over five SLpM. I’m not sure any Turcios strikes can be considered significant, so they just call them all significant, or he’d get shut out in every fight. But if he can get out of the first round, those insignificant strikes will add up. Turcios has landed over one hundred insignificant strikes twice in four measurable fights, and he could prove to be a valuable Fantasy option. 

Rosas Jr. will be the (-275) favorite, and Turcios will be the (+215) neglected dog. Turcios is no chump on the mat; he can survive and advance and take control of the latter half of the fight. The play for Rosas is an early submission, and the play for Turcios is a win by decision. He’s got the finishing rate of whiskey shots and stag dates at the Prom. This one is a little trickier than it appears, but I have to roll with the man-child, Raul Rosas Jr. via rear-naked choke, round one. On wax.  

 Props 

Rosas Jr.: TKO/KO (+650) Sub (+200) Dec (+180)  

Turcios: TKO/KO (+900) Sub (+1800) Dec (+300) 

Winner: Raul Rosas Jr. | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.1

Brunno Ferreira (-275) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+220)

Brunno: DK: $9.4k | Stoltzfus: DK: $6.8k

We’re going back-to-back like Drake with ugly bouts. This right here is a striker vs. wrestler matchup, and painfully so. Each fighter will look like a complete amateur within the other’s domain. If the fight stays standing, Dustin Stoltzfus will get ESPN Top Ten’d, highlighted like a Sharpie. And if it goes to the ground, Ferreira will get Johnny Appleseed’d - planted in the earth and left to germinate where one day he will sprout and grow into a tree whose trunk future Stoltzfus generations will measure their heights as they grow up and carve their names into. Disclaimer: I’ve never seen Brunno Ferreira’s ground game; he could be Khamzat’s brother from another mother, although I doubt it. Anywho, this one has one round written all over it, like male anatomy written all over the face of the first person to pass out at the shindig.   

Brunno Ferreira’s style is like Ronnie from Jersey Shore throwing Sloppy Joe hands in the street. Ferreira is a swinger, and I ain’t talking Billy Bob and Angelina or HoJo conference rooms and sandalwood-scented candles. My man throws nothing but wild Craig Bricks. You pull a string on Brunno’s back, and he just starts windmilling. And I ain’t talking Don Quixote or on your way out to Palm Springs. I’m talking NBA Jam with the Game Genie “Always on Fire” and “Halfcourt Dunks” cheat codes activated. My man goes straight Vince Carter in the Olympics, bags you across the forehead as he yaks over the top of you. That’s called getting the bag. N’ah mean? When it comes to throwing hands, Brunno is the kid who swings at everything – the ball in the dirt or over the backstop, it doesn’t matter, he’s hacking away. A jab is a conspiracy theory to this guy. Ask Phil Hawes. Matter of fact, you didn’t have to do Uncle Phil like that, Ol’ Hawse. 

“I ain’t your Ol’ Hawse, pawtna!” 

Phil Hawes literally laid down on his back and covered himself with a dirt blanket after a Brunno left hand. NObody dies harder than Phil Hawes, not even Bruce Willis. No matter which stance he is in, noinety percent of the time, Brunno will throw the rear hand every time. He ain’t here for a long time; he’s here for a good time. Ferreira is 11-1 with eight TKO/KOs and three subs, including 2-1 in the UFC. As you can see, Brunno only wins via finish. His upside value will be in an early TKO/KO. But his downside value will be on his back and possibly getting submitted. Fook his striking stats; it’s KO or bust for Ferreira.   

Dustin Stoltzfus looks like a Happy Hour Dan Henderson, but don’t let that fool you; the comparison is in appearance only and not in skill levels. His Hendo Bomb wouldn’t have any problems making it past TSA screenings. My man is Mr. Connors, the South Park wrasslin’ coach. On the feet, he’s an Amish striker; he doesn’t believe in violence. He has Osteoporosis hands - porcelain hands, and he moves like an action figure with a giant seven-year-old hand tottering him back and forth. Stoltzfus didn’t score a takedown in three of his four L’s in the UFC. Homie has to get this fight to the mat at the glove touch. Maybe do one of those cheap fake glove touches and shoot in. Stolzfus is more of a Greco, belly-to-belly wrestler than a freestyle-level change wrestler. He needs the clinch to secure takedowns, but once he gets you down, he makes up for years of being called Stoltzpus coming up in the public school system with solid ground and pound and nasty chokes.   

Stoltzfus is 15-5 for his career with two TKO/KOs and six subs and averages just under four SLpM, which isn’t bad for a guy who depends on top control. But his Fantasy value will be strictly in takedowns and top control. Ten of Ferreira’s twelve career bouts ended in the first round, and the other two ended in the second. Stoltzfus will be a major submission threat when the clock hits the halfway point. Brunno will be the (-275) favorite, and Stoltzfus will be the (+220) live dog. It all depends on how committed to takedowns Stoltzfus remains throughout the fight. If he gives up after one or two attempts, wrap it up, B. But I think he can be a flipper if he can get Brunno down. But-but, I can’t count on that. Brunno Ferreira via TKO, round one. On wax.   

Props 

Ferreira: TKO/KO (-150) Sub (+700) Dec (+700)   

Stoltzfus: TKO/KO (+900) Sub (+600) Dec (+650) 

Winner: Brunno Ferreira | Method: TKO Rd.1

Julian Marquez (-140) vs. Zach Reese (+110)

Marquez: DK: $8.3k | Reese: DK:$7.9k

This is a Vegan vs. Carnivore matchup. Zachary Reese looks like his favorite kicks are bare feet – Air Bunyons. He looks like he rocks toe shoes with a pinkie ring on them. He looks like he sells non-GMO Vegan dog biscuits at a local farmers market. And Julian Marquez looks like he eats meat after only showing it to a flame. He just walks it through a warm room. My man is famous for pulling up from halfcourt and taking his shot at Miley Cyrus on Valentine’s Day a couple years ago. Marquez could have been worn at the Met Gala, but he caught the vapors when she responded. Yeah, you read that right. This is a striker vs. grappler matchup, with the protein-deficient Reese being the latter. My man better pray to the Soy God that he can get Marquez to the mat, or this will get ugly with a cape on real quick. Super ugly.   

Zachary Reese is 6-1 and has only fought longer than two minutes once. And that fight only lasted four minutes. So far in his MMA career, Reese has never made it to third base - his parents always come home before the second round. On the feet, Reese has more reach than an influencer, but overall, he looks drowsy on the feet. Like he’s been sippin’ NyQuil and crossed over six lanes on the freeway in Nebraska. He looks like he can’t wait to take a nap. Reese looks all kinds of sketchy on the feet, like taking a dump in public, and the seat is already warm. This guy’s special move is playing possum. When he gets dropped, he latches onto an armbar or triangle as soon as you try to finish him. But he rocks a Hillbilly heartthrob mullet hawk and looks like an EBT Logan Paul, which has to account for something. 

In his UFC debut, Reese got Ricardo Arona’d by Cody Brundage. He held on to a triangle choke while Brundage picked him up, and backyard power slammed him into the canvas. It’s okay, though; Reese writes off that L on his taxes as a charitable donation for keeping Brundage in the UFC. His only chance in this fight is to get Marquez to the mat, and work submissions/ground and pound. Reese has four TKO/KOs and two subs in six career dubs, but those TKO/KOs must have resulted from ground and pound. His value will be in an early finish. Marquez has never been finished by submission but has been TKO/KO’d twice. It’s hard to picture Marquez getting duffed out with ground and pound; the play for Reese is a submission. 

Julian Marquez looks like he wears a banana hammock while in line at the buffet on a Carnival cruise. He looks like he takes portrait pics on the beach barefoot and in a pair of jeans for holiday cards. I can almost smell the Brut cologne when Julian Marquez scraps. On the feet, Marquez is a Neanderthal with clubbing hands like Tanya Harding’s goons. He cracks like plumber’s ass and summer’s grass. Marquez is a Catch-22 bomber, doing fly-bys and dropping bombs, but leaves himself wide open to anti-aircraft 50-cal return fire. He’s all gas and no brakes. Julian’s M.O. is working his way inside with heavy bombs and unloading standing elbows to punctuate his combos. His best weapon is over-aggression; he’s cramming a square peg into a round hole personified. If uber aggression doesn’t work, he fizzles out and becomes a silhouette at the end of a firing range. 

Marquez’s path to victory will be on the feet, but Reese will have to tread lightly on the mat. Julian Marquez has gillies in his back pocket like Dustin Diamond. But the difference is that Marquez uses gillies for takedown defense and not just for submissions. The gillies force the opponent to abandon the takedown or fall to their back to defend. Marquez is 9-4 with six TKO/KOs and three subs and averages just under five SLpM. In his last bout, a second-round TKO loss to Marc-Andre Barriault, Marquez managed to land eighty-two significant strikes before falling victim to his own heavy pace and fading after a solid first round.   

Marquez is the (-125) favorite, and Reese is the slight (+105) live-ass dog. Reese has a Mount Everest upside, a possible first-round finish, and a Titan-sub-at-the-bottom-of-the-ocean downside if he can’t get Marquez to the mat. This should be Marquez’s fight if he can weather the early grappling storm. I don’t see any way Reese can compete with Marquez on the feet, but Marquez can survive on the mat. Famous last words. The play for Marquez is a TKO/KO finish, and the play for Reese is a submission. Marquez is coming in off a one-year layoff, and that worries me. But I think he’s a more proven commodity than Reese. Julian Marquez via TKO, round two. I can give it to you ya, but whatcha ‘gone do with it? Put it on wax.   

Props 

Marquez: TKO/KO (+175) Sub (+450) Dec (+650)   

Reese: TKO/KO (+275) Sub (+350) Dec (+1200) 

Winner: Julian Marquez | Method: TKO Rd.2

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Jared Cannonier ($7.6k): He went to Jared for a guaranteed one hundred significant strikes landed in a five-round main event. Cannonier has dwarfed the one hundred strikes landed mark in each of his last two bouts, landing two hundred forty-one and one hundred forty-one strikes, respectively. There’s a chance Imavov could get Cannonier to the mat early but not late. This will shape into a classic kickboxing match, giving Cannonier plenty of time to rack up significant strikes. Also, I like his chances of finishing the fight more than Imavov’s. But even without a finish, or even in a loss, Cannonier will be a valuable Fantasy option. 

Punahele Soriano ($7.5k): Soriano vs. Baeza will be a battle of losing streaks. Soriano has dropped two in a row and four of his last five, and Baeza has lost three straight after starting his career 10-0. Punahele is the modern version of that guy in UFC 1 who wore one boxing glove into the cage. Left hands on repeat with the ten-second anti-skip activated - that’s Puna’s M.O. He’s a Ned Flander Leftorium southpaw who throws nothing but left-handed bombs. He’s Furiosa in this bish, missing his right hand. But he cracks like the Liberty Bell and will be facing a guy who is coming in off back-to-back TKO losses. This will be a battle of straight (Baeza) vs. round (Punahele) punches. Noine out of ten times, I’d take straight punches to beat round punches, but Baeza’s chin can’t be trusted like a fart after late night Taco Bell binge. Someone is going to sleep in this one, and I’ll put Puna’s power up against almost anyone in this division.  

Dominick Reyes ($7.2k): It will be weird seeing Dominick Reyes upright and awake for the first time in a year and a half, and there’s no telling what he will look like after four straight L’s and three straight by TKO/KO. But he’s still a dangerous striker. And don’t forget, Reyes gave Jiri a hell of a fight before eating that spinning back elbow. Reyes is another spam striker, flooding your inbox with nothing but left hands, but even when you know it’s coming, it’s hard to avoid. Also, Dustin Jacoby can’t be trusted. I have a lot of trust issues with this card; there are just too many shady fighters with extensive histories of half-stepping. And Jacoby is one of them. Jacoby is easy to hit and needs to operate within close quarters within the pocket to be effective. Reyes is a live-ass dog in this one with a high Fantasy upside if he can conjure the 2020 Reyes who beat Jon Jones, only to get held up at gunpoint and shaken down for his belt in the handicap stall of an infamous Valero restroom in the middle of the Nevada desert. 

  $6k Bathroom Clearance Rack 

Dustin Stoltzfus ($6.8k): I’m not so sure Stoltzfus won’t fook around and win this fight. Ferreira vs. Stoltzfus is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. In twelve career bouts, Ferreira has never seen a third round, and all but two ended in the first. If Stoltzfus shows up and not his grade school alter-ego Stoltzpus, and he can avoid a Ferreira first-round bomb, this fight will be Stoltzy’s for the taking. Stoltzy’s upside is a submission/TKO finish on the mat, especially late once the clock strikes five minutes and Ferreira’s bombs turn into Fourth of July driveway poppers. This fight will not go the distance. Stoltzfus will either get slept in the first round, or he will weather the storm and grind out Ferreira on his way to a middle/late finish.   

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Cody Stamann (+220): Stamann is a third of the month (broke) Drew Dober. When he’s on his game, Stamann is a tough little wrestler striker with respectable power. Against Taylor Lapilus, Stamann will have a massive experience advantage, having fought names like Said Nurmagomedov, Merab Dvalishvili, Jimmy Rivera, Douglas Silva De Andrade, Aljamain Sterling, and Song Yadong. All those were L’s except for a draw against Yadong, but Stamann has been thrown to the wolves since he debuted back in 2017. His opponent, Taylor Lapilus, is long with decent striking and wrestling, but he’s far from a killer. The key for Stamann will be not losing his focus and keeping his foot on the gas even in bumper-to-bumper traffic. Just keep that MF mashed for fifteen minutes, and he can pull off the upset.   

Punahele Soriano (+160): Power for power, I’m taking Soriano over Baeza all day, every day. Baeza will have the advantage of having tighter kickboxing skills, but Soriano has a street-fighting element to his game that can throw off classic strikers. Baeza is coming in off back-to-back TKO losses and three straight L’s overall. His chin is highly sus, and Puna will be making his debut at welterweight after seven fights at middleweight. If his power translates to the lower weight class, Baeza will be in trouble. This is another fight not likely to see the final bell and is a complete toss-up in my book.  

Dominick Reyes (+185): The only question about Reyes is his chin after a Jiri spinning back elbow KO and a Ryan Spann jab that sent him toppling at free fall speeds into his own footprint. If his chin holds up, Reyes will cause Dustin Jacoby all kinds of problems on the feet. Jacoby’s chin is also suspect, as he has been known to let loose with some Patrick Swayze dirty dancing routines in the middle of fights. I picked Jacoby to win because his striking has more wrinkles than Reyes’s, but Reyes may have more one-punch KO power. Reyes’ odds reflect those horrific back-to-back KO losses and not his overall skills compared to Jacoby’s. This is another toss-up with skewed odds, and Reyes will be a live-ass dog come Saturday night. 

Pick ‘Em 

Miguel Baeza (-200) vs. Punahele Soriano (+165) 

Winner: Punahele Soriano 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Thiago Moises (+105) vs. Ludovit Klein (-125) 

Winner: Ludovit Klein 

Method: Decision 

Charlie Radtke (+195) vs. Carlo Prates (-240) 

Winner: Carlos Prates 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Brad Katona (-650) vs. Jesse Butler (+450) 

Winner: Brad Katona 

Method: Decision 

Andrea Lee (-150) vs. Montana De La Rosa (+125) 

Winner: Andrea Lee 

Method: Decision 

John Castaneda (-110) vs. Daniel Marcos (-110) 

Winner: John Castaneda 

Method: Decision 

Eduarda Moura (-170) vs. Denise Gomes (+140) 

Winner: Eduarda Moura 

Method: Decision 

Cody Stamann (+210) vs. Taylor Lapilus (-275) 

Winner: Taylor Lapilus 

Method: Decision 

Rayanne Dos Santos (-300) vs. Puja Tomar (+240) 

Winner: Rayanne Dos Santos 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door polic1