Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card

Colby Covington (+230) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-280)

Covington: DK: $7.2k | Buckley: DK:$9k

Yo! Hit that Nas “Hate Me Now!” Wait, doesn’t that song have Didd— You can hate them now, but they won’t back down. Cuz they won’t stop now, you can hate them now! This fight is like the Dodgers vs. Yankees in the World Series or the Patriots vs. the Eagles in the Super Bowl, and you root for a global “pandemic” and lockdowns because you don’t want to see either team win. Hate and Loathing in Las Vegas: The final main event of 2024 is a shit-talker's delight, featuring the hated vs. the most hated fighters in the UFC. Silky Johnson and Buck Nasty don’t even garner as much hate as Colby Covington and Joaquin Buckley. If ever there was a time for a simultaneous knockout... Like the end of Rocky III when Apollo Creed and Rocky spar, “Ding, ding,” and the final shot freezes on them landing simultaneously. In the Covington vs. Buckley version, the shot doesn’t freeze, and they both go to sleep with their eyes open. 

Because, as Jadakiss said, “you deserved it when you die with your eyes open.” The Watchers – eternally watching others celebrate their demise like they got a visit from the Spirit of Yet to Come. But conjuring hate at the sound of your name is better than evoking nothing. It wasn’t until Colby was infected with the heel symbiote and started spitting venom that he made a name for himself. Who could ever forget what he said after beating one of my all-time favorite fighters, Robbie Lawler: “Let’s talk about the lesson we learned tonight. It’s a strong lesson that Robbie should have learned from his good buddy Matt Hughes. You stay off the tracks when the train comes through, Junior.” If you didn’t know, Matt Hughes was hit by a train while crossing the tracks in his truck. Bars. Colby became the Don King of self-promotion, following the legendary path paved by the one and only Chael P. Sonnen.   

And not even swamp-ass rubs people the wrong way more than Joaquin Buckley. I don’t know what it is, but his opponents get knocked out, wake up, and still want a piece of him. They never want the fight to end. “Everybody Hates Joaquin” just got picked up for its fifteenth season. Buckley is going for that Days of Our Lives record. Even Jehovah’s Witnesses flip Buckley the bird after ringing his doorbell. But in the fight game, the ability to make people react emotionally is a gift. This fight should have had a Mayweather vs. McGregor press tour lead-up. The final main event of the year is a fookin’ banger.   

Colby Covington looks like Sid from Toy Story all grown up and graduated from torturing toys to hosting tea parties with Real Dolls. He’s an Outkast like Big Boi and 3000. He’s a Devil’s Reject. And you can Hate it or Love It like 50 and The Game (Yo! Hit that shit!), but chances are, he’s gonna kick your ass. You can break Colby’s jaw, but you can’t break his heart. He doesn’t have to wear a vest like 50 because his heart is bulletproof. Not even his first love could break Colby’s heart. As much as I hated on Colby early in his career, I found myself respecting the fook out of him. The wars with Kamaru Usman were the only justification needed. Colby talks the talk and c-walks the walk. Colby only loses title fights. He’s like the 90s Bills of losing championship games. There are kids in Africa rocking Colby Covington Undisputed Welterweight World Champion t-shirts. He won the Interim belt in 2018 but never the undisputed belt. 

Colby beats you with pace and pressure. He travels along the Merab/Belal spectrum. He throws nothing but combinations and never stops shooting doubles. He holds on to body locks like Cowboys fans hold on to the 90s – like Al Bundy does the time he scored four tuddies in a single game. Colby isn’t a great striker, but he’s a volume striker. His major malfunction on the feet is that he has lazy feet. He doesn’t move them when he engages and often gets caught reaching for punches. His striking is best when paired with a steady output of level changes. Against Buckley, Colby has to get back to setting the pace. He has to make Buckley work every second of the fight and systematically grind him down. Colby is 17-4 with four TKO/KOs and four subs. He is 12-4 in the UFC and 0-2 in the streets. Yo! Hit that Kurupt “Tha Streetz iz a Mutha!” Colby has only finished one fight since 2016. The play for him is out hustling Buckley to a decision.   

Joaquin Buckley is a turtle in a full shell. This guy is so buff his skin is barely hanging on. Homie's skin is yelling, “Buckley, I don’t fit you!” And he hands out nothing but Charlie Brown fades. His missed punches will have you walking in italics. Dana already knows he isn’t getting his deposit back when Buckley steps into the cage. He leaves the arena looking like the Pinkman house. He turns a one hunnid square radius into Albuquerque, New Mexico. I’m just kidding. You know I love you, 505! Everyone’s a Lobo, woof, woof, woof! Buckley is all hooks like Ed Sheeran and overhands like trebuchets. When he starts whizzing shots past your dome, it feels like semi-trucks flying past while you’re walking on the side of the road like Dwayne Haskins. Even his missed punches will leave you like Carol Baskins’ husband real quick.  

Look what he just did to my man, Wonderboy. He waxed Wonderboy’s ass like Danielson. Buckley could see himself in Wonderboy’s ass. Wait... what!? No Diddy! He cooked Wonderboy. And set the table, poured a couple glasses of wine, and said grace. Buckley turned him into Wonder, Boy. As in, I wonder what happened to that boy? Yo! Hit that Birdman “What Happened to That boy!” Buckley put a comma in Wonderboy’s name. He hit Wonderboy with his special move, the leaping left hook. Buckley literally leaves his feet when throwing hooks. Technique/fundamentals, fook all that. Buckley breaks all the rules, and you can’t argue with the results. He’s Creepin on ah Come Up like Bone Thugs. Don’t look now, but if Buckley beats Colby... he will be on the short list of title challengers. And who would have ever thought you’d see that?    

Buckley is 20-6 with fourteen TKO/KOs and is undefeated (5-0) since dropping to welterweight. And he finished three of those fights. Buckley will be the slightly higher output striker, averaging just over four SLpM compared to Colby’s just under four. But Colby averages four takedowns per fifteen minutes compared to Buckley’s two. Buckley's wrestling has been far more effective at welterweight. Both fighters rock a takedown defense just below seventy percent. It will be interesting to see if Buckley tries to take Colby down. But I expect Buckley to do Buckley shit and throw bombs for most of the duration. 

Buckley will be the (-280) favorite, and Colby will be the (+225) live-ass dog. If there’s anything left of Colby after recent wars, he can beat anybody. He was as close as you can get to beating Usman twice but came up short. The finishing threat is clearly Buckley. But I think there is value in a decision. Even after fighting with a broken jaw for nearly three rounds, Colby was just seconds away from making it to the final bell in the first Usman fight.  

Who doubted Toja Cat last weekend? Not me. That dude is the most underrated champion. He son’d the UFC newcomer, Asakura. Congrats on the new edition, Champ. I thought the odds would be closer on this one. Colby won’t go down easy. At the beginning of the week, I picked Buckley, but I had a last-minute change of mind. There’s just too much value in Colby, and he’s faced far stiffer competition. No hate on Buckley. Just facts. Colby Covington via decision. Put it on wax! 

Props

Colby: TKO/KO (+1400) Sub (+2200) Dec (+330) 

Buckley: TKO/KO (+140) Sub (+2000) Dec (+165)

Winner: Colby Covington | Method: Decision

Cub Swanson (+135) vs. Billy Quarantillo (-155)

Swanson: DK: $7.8k | Billy Q.: DK: $8.4k

Ain’t nobody more West Coast than Cub Swanson. He dreams of Californication. Yo! Hit that shit! This MF even has palm trees tatted across the belly like 2Pac. And he brings the West Coast beef every time he steps into the cage like he’s rocking a Death Row chain - like Tha Dogg Pound stomping on New York City – Snoop at the Source Awards, “The East Coast don’t got love for Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg! Ya’ll don’t love us! Let it be known then!” Crips, Bloods, essays, book reports, vatos; Cub always gets love from the homies. Not only will Cub be carrying Cali on his back, but also all the OG’s who have been around since the blue mats of the WEC days when Cub first made a name for himself.   

Now hit that “Still D.R.E.!” I hear that shit playing in the background every time I watch Cub scrap. That’s because Cub’s hands bounce like hydraulics, bounce like a motherf**kin’ Scott Storch beat. Even after twenty years in the game, Cub still cracks like Maurice Cheeks, aka Mo Cheeks. Which is what the Paul vs. Tyson producers were yelling after the second round and ratings started to plummet, “Mo cheeks!” Cub leans like a Cholo and throws every punch from the tops of his Nike Cortez, all black like Heaven’s Gate. Fighting Cub is like playing a game of MMA HORSE. Flying knee: H. Spinning back-kick: O. No-look right hand: R. Cub scored the E against Darren Elkins with a spinning wheel kick. And that guy has a roach’s survivability. Getting the shit kicked out of your legs is also always in the cards when fighting Cub, and overall, Cub is not only a dangerous striker, he’s a fearless striker. He throws first and doesn’t even think of asking questions later.   

This fight right here will be on some Lord of the Flies type-shit. Some straight savage shit. This should be for the Division II BMF belt – the NIT BMF belt. Even though the last time we saw Billy Q., he looked like Billy Queue. This fookin’ guy would turn into an Inuit and live off seal blubber during nuclear winter. Homie would sweep gold medals in the Nuclear Winter Olympics. Billy Q. has to be on the brink of death before he truly feels alive. He’s an adrenaline junkie on some Delonte West type-shit. Call him Delonte East. In nearly every Billy Q. fight, he gets punch drunk like he had a corporate credit card. They have to confiscate that shit and send him to AA. “Hi, my name is Billy, and I have a problem.” By the second round, Billy is always a minimum of two right hands over the legal limit. But sixty percent of the time, he comes back and wins every time.   

Except for the last time. The last time, Youssef Zalal ate his ham sammich like Wayne Brady. But usually, Billy Q. is a one-man army like Rambo; he’ll take out the whole Rampart District by himself. You need riot gear: shields, tear gas, rubber bullets, curfews, and clubs named after Billy when you fight him. Billy Q. isn’t a technical striker or particularly athletic, but he’ll grind on you. He’ll rub you the wrong way – rub you raw like the roof of your mouf after eating Cap’n Crunch. He’s a Grindr like a certain party’s national convention. Haha. Woof! I’m closing out 2024 with a bang, homies. “We ain’t your—” I know, I know. Billy Q. is survive-and-advance personified. He’s the NCAA March Madness logo. They call him Catfish Billy because he looks like a square but cracks like a presidential pardon. Woof!   

Billy will win this fight if he can close the distance and press Cub against the cage. He can’t fight Cub at range, or Cub will start hitting switches and make that Cutlass ass drop real quick. Cub dominates at range, and Billy Q. Dominates in close quarters. Billy Q. is 18-6 with eight TKO/KOs and five subs. And Cub is 29-14 with thirteen TKO/KOs and four subs and is coming off a robbery against Andre “Touchy” Fili. I thought Cub won that fight. He’s still highly competitive even after making his UFC debut in 2011.

Billy Q. will be the (-160) favorite, and Cub will be the (+135) live-ass dog. I’m surprised by the odds. I thought Cub would be the favorite. Billy Q. is too hittable and looks like Leo on Quaaludes walking to the Lambo at least once in every fight. But of Cub’s fourteen career L’s, he was finished ten times, seven by submission. That being said, I like this one going the distance one way or the other. These two are Michael Vick FC dogs. But you already know I’m riding with the dog-dog. There’s too much value in Cub not to. Cub Swanson via decision. On wax. 

Props

Cub: TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+1600) Dec (+300) 

Billy Q.: TKO/KO (+250) Sub (+600) Dec (+240)

Winner: Cub Swanson | Method: Decision

Vitor Petrino (-290) vs. Dustin Jacoby (+240)

Petrino: DK: $9.1k | Jacoby: DK:$7.1k

ED-209 is back, and he’s set on “Pacification” mode. You have twenty seconds to comply, or Vitor Petrino might gas out. Or he might stumble into a guillotine choke like his 1988 predecessor stumbling down a flight of stairs. Vitor Petrino is a killing machine with some major design flaws. If he can’t get Dustin Jacoby to the mat, some of those flaws will be exposed. Jacoby is a former Glory Kickboxing World Champion who once fought Alex Pereira in the squared circle. In fact, you could say a guy like Dustin Jacoby paved the way for Alex Pereira to jump from kickboxing into MMA. This will be a classic Power vs. Technique matchup on the feet and an overall crunchy little banger.   

Vitor Petrino is on that WWE shit. He’s built like the Rock, but I ain’t talking bout Dwayne Johnson. I’m talkin’ bout the penitentiary floating off the coast of San Francisco. Petrino is built like a damn max-security fortress. He’s built like the old-school Gold’s Gym logo. He’s built like Milhouse’s mom’s new boyfriend. MF is built like an American Gladiator – like a stepson in a Brazzer’s production. It’s a steel cage match when Vitor steps into the Octagon. He’ll hit you with some meaty chest chops, leg drops, and a Frog Splash from the top turnbuckle; he might even go full Vince McMahon and shit on ya dome. Why? Because he can. This MFer’s hands are built like a Mad Max car with two supercharges and run on diesel. Petrino’s hands can’t pass a damn smog check. 

But Petrino is all power and zero finesse. He has Etch-A-Sketch footwork, only moving in straight lines. And he’s a one-punch wonder, an Ace of Base striker. “You only get one shot...” Vitor Petrino took B. Rabbit literally. Petrino only throws a single strike at a time, as if he’s never been exposed to the concept of a combination. If someone ever teaches this guy a 1-2... Yo! Hit that Biggie and 112 “Sky is the Limit!” Except the sky ain’t the limit; it’s a launching pad if Petrino ever learns how to put punches together. Because, eventually, he won’t be able to muscle opponents to the mat. Like on the feet, Petrino's wrestling is power-based and lacks the intricate techniques of elite grapplers. But that may be enough to beat Dustin Jacoby.   

Jacoby travels along the Vernon Davis spectrum. "Can’t do it. You can’t win a parlay with him." WKO Rule #13: Never put Dustin Jacoby in a parlay. Jacoby’s Spidey Sense tingles every time I bet on him. He immediately starts auditioning for Dancing with the Stars the first time he gets hit clean. He turns into a damn Jabawockeez, spinning on his head and shit. He has that Ikea chin. And Jacoby can't be trusted in crunch time. Dustin is in almost every fight until the third round. Then he turns into Matt Eberflus with zero clock management instincts. He turns into Chris Webber calling a timeout when the fight is on the line. Jacoby just makes bad decisions like a middle child. Down two rounds and needing a finish to secure a dub, Jacoby will inexplicably start wrestling. And I start throwing shit at the TV.   

Jacoby is one of the most technical strikers in the light heavyweight division. But he doesn’t seem to always fight with urgency. He fights like it’s a pick-up scrap at the Y. He’s out there trying to paint a perfect picture like 2Pac, and he just needs to lob paint on the canvas and call it abstract. When he’s on his game, Jacoby slides back and forth between stances, manipulates the opponent's guard, and uses his jab to set up extended combinations. When he’s not on his game, he retreats in straight lines, stands flat-footed, and gets pieced up. Jacoby can beat Petrino with volume and pressure. But he can’t beat Petrino if he can’t stay on his feet and decides to trade power shots with him in the pocket.   

The numbers: Petrino is 11-1 with seven TKO/KOs and one sub. And Jacoby is 19-9 with twelve TKO/KOs and one sub. Jacoby will be the higher output striker, averaging five and a half SLpM to Petrino’s less than three. But Petrino averages four takedowns per fifteen minutes. That’s bad news for Jacoby who rocks only a sixty percent takedown defense. This will be a classic survive and advance scenario for Jacoby, who should take over in the later minutes. If he doesn’t go full Matt Eberflus and start trying to wrestle in the closing minutes while down on the scorecards. And that’s a big if. Petrino will be the (-320) favorite, and Jacoby will be the (+260) live dog. Jacoby can win the fight with volume and superior striking technique. He is capable of landing over one hundred significant strikes, but he’ll have to spend valuable time defending takedowns and will likely only notch moderate striking stats at best. At the end of the day, when it’s all said and done, when push comes to shove, I just can’t trust Jacoby anymore. Vitor Petrino via decision. Put it on wax.   

Props

Petrino: TKO/KO (+110) Sub (+550) Dec (+300) 

Jacoby: TKO/KO (+650) Sub (+2500) Dec (+500)

Winner: Vitor Petrino | Method: Decision

Adrian Yanez (+180) vs. Daniel Marcos (-220)

Yanez: DK: $7.7k | Marcos: DK: $8.5k

This is a dope little stand-up banger. Adrian Yanez was on the fast track to the top of the division after winning his first five UFC bouts, four via TKO/KO. But then he ran into Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez. Rob Font knocked the tilde off Yañez's name the first time Yanez tried to use it. And J-Mart left Yanez with Sleepy Hollow decapitated ankles. J-Mart left Yanez rocking them Crone's calves. They gave Yanez’s calves a burial at sea after that fight. The Octagon turned into Bourbon Street, with Yanez stepping in potholes all over the Octagon during that fight. But Yanez got back on track against Vinicius Salvador, scoring a first-round TKO like vintage Yanez. But Vinicius Salvador won’t be making the walk this time. Daniel Marcos is a quiet, unassuming ass-kicker with strict technical striking. In many ways, these guys have similar stand-ups, and this is a classic Striker’s Delight.   

Despite the ups and downs, some things never change. “Yo!” Adrian Yanez still cracks like the 80s. He has those TJ illegal firecracker hands. M-80 hands. Adrian has them Jason Pierre-Paul hands. And don’t forget about Yanez’s hand speed. His hands are so quick they sear your face, leaving it a crispy golden brown on the outside like some ahi tuna. Yanez has that Le Cordon Bleu hand speed. Short to the target; that’s the key to quick hands. Adrian keeps his strikes tight and short and can fit them between most opponents’ shoulders during exchanges. Overall, Yanez is as good an offensive striker as there is in the division. But defense wins championships.   

Yanez’s major malfunction is that he suffers from CDS, Cody (Garbrandt) Derangement Syndrome. When you Chin Check Adriane Yanez, he sees red and starts swinging recklessly. Yo! Hit that NWA “Chin Check!” You can easily Hansel and Gretal Yanez’s ass and lead him off the path to victory by touching his chin early and luring him into a firefight. He just forgets about head movement and moving off the centerline and just starts swinging like an Island Boy. Also, speaking of islands, Yanez’s chin has been compromised like it was on the island. You know which island. Yanez’s chin goes into the prevent defense with five minutes left on the clock. The key for Yanez against Daniel Marcos will be remaining technical and limiting his combinations to two to three strikes. Extending combos beyond that will leave his chin exposed for too long.   

Daniel Marcos is a punch-the-clock, forty hours per week, unapproved OT ass-kicker. In many ways, Marcos’s hands are Twinners with Yanez’s. His hands are fast and short, but Marcos is slightly more technical. And he has that Power Train 250k Miles Warranty defense. Marcos is all precision, as opposed to Yanez who tends to load up on big power shots occasionally. It’s like Marcos’s hands have scopes on them. American Sniper hands. His hands have laser sights. The Octagon looks like the opening scene in Belly as soon as Daniel Marcos starts throwing hands. Also, Marcos has that Jeopardy fight IQ. Daily Double fight IQ. You can’t shake Marcos from his game plan by luring him into danger. Marcos picks his shots wisely and is always ready for a counter. 

This fight will be controlled aggression vs. wild aggression. Yanez is built for one hundred meters and Marcos for ten thousand meters. Yanez is 17-5 with eleven TKO/KOs and two subs. And Marcos is 16-0 with eight TKO/KOs. Both guys are high-output strikers. Adrian averages six and a half SLpM compared to Marcos’s six. Barring an early finish, this fight should produce two solid Fantasy options. There is very little chance of this fight going to the mat and should be a stand-up banger for the duration. I would give Yanez a slightly better shot at scoring a finish, but I think the play for both is a decision. Yanez’s chin is sus, but Marcos is more of a volume striker than a power striker. Marcos is the (-170) favorite, and Yanez is the (+150) live-ass dog. In many ways, Yanez is the more dangerous striker, but that chin... What is Daniel Marcos via decision? Put that shit on wax, Alex. 

Props

Yanez TKO/KO (+400) Sub (+2200) Dec (+450)  

Marcos: TKO/KO (+200) Sub (+2200) Dec (+165)

Winner: Daniel Marcos | Method: Decision

Michael Johnson (-220) vs. Ottman Azaitar (+180)

MJ: DK: $8.7k | Azaitar: DK: $7.5k

I made a power move and demoted Manel Kape vs. Bruno Silva to the prelims while giving this fight the bump up. After Manel’s Kape’s last performance against Muhammad Mokaev, there’s no way he should be fighting above an MMA quadruple OG like Michael Johnson. Nobody can almost win better than MJ. Nobody has more “shoulda wons” than MJ. But MJ has No Regerts! This MF goes out on his shield like a Raid can. If fights were one round, MJ might be undefeated with a dub over Khabib.   

But ultimately, MJ is a heartbreaker. Yo! Hit that Michael Jackson “Heartbreaker!” Homie is a walking tear-jerker. MJ always gets out to a fast start and makes you a believer, then... He leaves you with pelotas azules like watching Cruel Intentions back in the day. MJ just leaves you hanging. MJ’s knocked-out reel is longer than most fighters’ highlight reels. With all the flyer miles his head has racked up falling to the mat, MJ can redeem them for a free international flight. But he’s still standing here, screaming “Fook the Free World!” Your finger will cramp scrolling his Sherdog record before you reach his UFC debut in 2010, way down at the bottom. Yeah, MJ is a gatekeeper... Hit that Redman “I’ll Be Dat!” Mj will be dat, he’ll be dat. Being a gatekeeper isn’t a pejorative; it’s a sign of longevity.   

MJ has always reminded me of the male Angela Hill. Their records don’t do them any justice. Both are way better than their records. MJ still has the fastest hands in the lightweight division. His hands are faster than your 20s – faster than your life will flash before your eyes someday. And MJ possesses the envy of all strikers: elite takedown defense. MJ’s special move is his sprawl. So... he was off taking a shit when they were handing out special moves or what? This MF has that Beast Quake Marshawn Lynch takedown defense. Takedown defense like that Lakers bubble banner. MJ has the best sprawl in the game, maybe ever. Sprawl-and-brawl, MJ is the Godfather of that shit. He rocks an eighty-one percent takedown defense and has over forty career fights.  

The key for MJ is his straight punches and hand speed. His punches should beat Ottman Azaitar down the middle all night. MJ’s major malfunction is his pocket exits. He always exits straight back with his chin up. You have to roll and step off your punches at angles. That has always been MJ’s Achilles’ heel. Azaitar will have a power advantage, but speed kills. And MJ has plenty of that.   

In his last two bouts, Ottman Azaitar got exposed like Tyson’s cheeks. After beginning his career 13-0, Azaitar is coming in off back-to-back first-round TKO/KO losses. In many ways, this fight will be like old-school sleepovers. Both guys will struggle not to be the first one to fall asleep. Ottman can’t operate heavy machinery with his chin. He has that ol’ fall-asleep-at-the-wheel chin. That Nyquil chin. But he can prescribe you some hooks and overhands for whatever ails you. Ottman’s strikes straight-up globetrot. His strikes are on that Amelia Earhart shit. They’ve been around the world, and I, I, I... Yo! Hit that Biggie “Been Around the World!” Nah, that wasn’t Biggie, pawtna. That was some Diddy shit. I ain’t your buddy, homie!   

Azaitar’s power comes from his bobbing cadence. He’s like a sweatshop Mike Tyson how he bobs from side to side while low-key loading up on big power shots. You wanna see a dead body? Go watch Azaitar’s UFC debut against Teemu Packalen. Azaitar hit Packalen with a right hand, and Packalen looked like he was reciting the Gettysburg Address on the way down. Well, his name is Teemu. What else did you expect? Homie collapsed like a Jenga tower- like the way the towers would have if there weren’t explo—Whoa, whoa whoa. That’s some 2025 shit. I digress. Overall, Ottman Azaitar reminds me of a third and eighteenth of the month (broke) Santiago “The Ponz” Ponzinibio. Ottman has to try to trap MJ along the cage and make this fight a brawl. At range, MJ will dominate. Within the pocket, Azaitar will dominate. It will be a classic battle of range.

Azaitar is 13-2 with ten TKO/KOs and two subs. On paper, Azaitar is the higher output fighter, averaging over five and a half SLpM compared to MJ’s just under four and a half. But Azaitar’s stats are skewed because he only has four UFC bouts and all four ended within one round. MJ will be the (-175) favorite, and Azaitar will be the (+155) live-ass dog. The play for Azaitar is a TKO/KO. The play for MJ is a late TKO/KO. There’s value in a decision, but Azaitar has only been out of the first round three times. I imagine his gas tank will fail late in the fight. Well, here it is. The last pick of 2024. And, of course, I have no idea. This is a complete toss-up. It’s hard to put any confidence in MJ’s chin for fifteen minutes. But here we are. I came here to talk shit and pick Michael Johnson. And I’m all out of shit to talk for 2024. See you next year, homies!  

“We ain’t your, hom—” 

I know, I know. Michael Johnson via TKO, round three. Wax on, wax off.  

Props

MJ: TKO/KO (+140) Sub (+1200) Dec (+275)  

Azaitar: TKO/KO (+300) Sub (+2500) Dec (+650)

Winner: Michael Johnson | Method: TKO Rd.3

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Adrian Yanez ($7.7k): Yanez vs. Marcos will be a stand-up banger with little chance of the fight hitting the mat. Yanez is a firefighter in the pocket with superior hand speed and averages six and a half SLpM. Yanez's major malfunction is his defense. He starts every fight defensively sound, but that quickly flies out the window as soon as he gets hit. If he gets out of pocket inside the pocket, he will get got, as he did against Rob Font. Also, Jonathan Martinez exposed Yanez’s inability to defend leg kicks. But Yanez is still one of the best pure boxers in the division and is coming in off a first-round TKO/KO dub. I think Yanez will be the slightly better finishing threat. But barring an early finish, this fight should produce solid Fantasy stats for both fighters, and there’s a ton of value on Yanez on the value menu. 

Fernando Padilla ($7.7k): Padilla vs. Woodson will be like an ancient Egyptian battle scene depicted on the walls of King Tut’s tomb. Sean Woodson is a human hieroglyph, a long, lanky striker with Heinz ketchup bottle hand speed. Fernando Padilla is a rare fighter who can match Woodson’s freakish length. Padilla is also a long, lanky striker. But Padilla uses more weapons on the feet and has a ground game that Woodson doesn’t. Padilla is 16-5 with five TKO/KOs and noine subs. Padilla is a Tenth Planet Jiu-Jitsu representative with a dangerous guard and top game. We haven’t seen much of it in his first three UFC bouts. Padilla is 2-1 in the UFC with an impressive first-round dub over the heathen Julian Erosa in his debut. This guy is a dual threat who can finish the fight on the feet or the mat.   

Colby Covington ($7.2k): Does Colby still have anything left in the tank? That’s the big question. If he does, he could not only beat Joaquin Buckley, but he could dominate Buckley. Never forget the fifth round against Leon Edwards. After giving up the first four rounds, Colby dominated the fifth. Colby has the cardio to push a pace on the feet and the mat that very few can keep up with. There’s a good chance this fight could look a lot like Colby’s fight against Jorge Masvidal, in which Colby landed noinety-four strikes, six takedowns, and racked up over sixteen minutes of control time. Although it wasn’t the most exciting performance, Colby dominated and racked up Fantasy points along the way. We’ve never seen Buckley in championship rounds, but we know Colby will have plenty left in the tank.  

 $6k Clearance Rack

Tuco Tokkos ($6.6k): The clearance rack features some items sprouting mold. Your best bet is Bruno Silva at $7k if you’re desperate. Silva is a wild card and will be facing Manel Kape, who cannot be trusted. As far as Tuco Tokkos goes... Well, his name is Tuco, as in Salamanca. This guy throws bombs and will be facing a debutante in Navajo Stirling, who looked like a killer on the Contender Series. Stirling is a sterling offensive striker, but he is negligent when it comes to defense. He is hittable, and Tuco can put Stirling on skates if Stirling gets blinded by the bright lights. But if you can scrape together a couple extra hundred dollars, take a chance on Bruno pulling off some miraculous shit against Kape. 

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

 Fernando Padilla (+135): I’m not sure how good Padilla is, but he’s a dangerous all-around fighter. He can stand and bang with Sean Woodson, and he will have a big advantage if he can get the fight to the mat. On the feet, Padilla has traditional Muay Thai and uses all his limbs to create damage. Woodson is mostly just a boxer. Other than his freakish reach, there’s nothing special about Woodson. And Padilla is a long striker who can match Woodson’s length. The finishing threat in this matchup will be Padilla, especially if he can get Woodson to the mat where Padilla has noine career subs 

Adrian Yanez (+175): These are great odds for a fight that is essentially a toss-up. This will be Daniel Marcos’s first real test within the Octagon, while Yanez has been in there with high-level competition. If Yanez can stay within himself defensively, his hand speed and superior power will cause Marcos plenty of problems. The red flag for Yanez is his suspect chin. He tends to get drawn into dangerous extended exchanges in the pocket. If he can avoid extending combinations and can pick his shots wisely, he will have a good shot of taking the zero in Marcos’s L column. 

Colby Covington (+235): Colby has been to the top of the mountain and has faced some of the best fighters the welterweight division has ever produced. He’s a dog’s dog who can’t be broken even when he is outgunned. If Buckley can’t land a game-changing bomb, Colby will be in this fight until the end. And I expect Colby to take over in the championship rounds. If Colby is the one to dictate the pace, he will win this fight. He needs to go full Merab and threaten takedowns for the duration, whether they are successful or not. You could make a case that Colby should be the favorite in this fight based on his level of competition and championship experience alone.   

Twenty Twen-Twen All Dog Parlay 

Pick ‘Em

Manel Kape (-370) vs. Bruno Silva (+285)  

Winner: Manel Kape 

Method: Decision 

Navajo Stirling (-700) vs. Tuco Tokkos (+500) 

Winner: Navajo Stirling 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Joel Alvarez (-440) vs. Drakkar Klose (+330)  

Winner: Joel Alvarez 

Method: Anaconda Choke Rd.3 

Sean Woodson (-155) vs. Fernando Padilla (+135) 

Winner: Sean Woodson 

Method: Decision 

Miles Johns (+215) vs. Felipe Lima (-260) 

Winner: Felipe Lima 

Method: Decision 

Miranda Maverick (-585) vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (+410) 

 Winner: Miranda Maverick 

Method: Decision 

Davey Grant (-110) vs. Ramon Taveras (-110) 

 Winner: Davey Grant 

Method: Decision 

Josefine Knutsson (-235) vs. Piera Rodriguez (+195) 

 Winner: Josefine Knutsson 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March.

I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.