Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy. Instagram: @therealsethgeko | Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

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Main Card 

Grant Dawson (-425) vs. King Green (+315)

Dawson: DK: $9.4k | King: DK:$6.8k

Bobby King Green ain’t nuthin’ to f**k wit. Bobby King Green ain’t nuthin’ to f**k wit. Bobby King Green ain’t nuthin’ to f**k wit.  

There’s no place to hide, once King steps inside... 

King be tossin’, enforcin’, his style is awesome. He’s causin’ more Family Feuds than Richard Dawson. And the survey said, “Grant’s dead!” Fatal flying guillotine chops off his fookin’ head. Mister, who is that? Ayo, the King is back! 

Taylor Swift has the Swifties; Lady Gaga has the Little Monsters; Justin Bieber has the Beliebers; and King Green has the Knights of the Round, led by yours truly, groupie extraordinaire and First Team All-Stan. King Green is my spirit animal; he’s a walking, shit-talkin' manifestation of a 36 Chambers track, gritty and grimy. Some people are born fighters; every day is a scrap, and Life itself is the inherent opponent. An adopted Diaz Brother, Bobby Green exposes professional dogma by bringing the street mentality live and direct to whatever platform he graces, your TV, the Octagon, or the cracked, deteriorating asphalt of a street most go out of their way to avoid. When the tank is on E, the risk of being stranded on the side of the freeway is far more palpable than taking Exit 209 Hard Knocks Blvd, the street on which Bobby Green grew up. Win or lose, this Saturday night, Bobby King Green will bring da ruckus. Bring da motherf**kin' ruckus! And Grant Dawson will find out: You don’t need a black belt when you have a blue collar. Bobby Digital is back, homies! LFG! 

If it’s not clear, Bobby Green is my favorite current fighter. I don’t subscribe to polite society or civility politics; I subscribe to taking what’s yours and handing out ass-whoopins at the drop of a nug along the way. Bobby Green doesn’t strive to be one of them; he’s more than comfortable being one of us. When he steps into the cage, King Green brings all his baggage, cluttered with nominal fees like registration stickers on a license plate, for all to see. Once the cage door is latched, King Green is one of the most intricate strikers in the game, traveling along the prime Dominick Cruz spectrum. His low hand position creates unique arm angles and doubles as a built-in level change defense. Stance switches, switch steps, dart punches, striking in any direction; all the Dominick Cruz tricks are there. Add a dash of hand speed, a pinch of kill-or-be-killed mentality, and sprinkle in some crafty wrestling for good measure, and you have King Green’s style mixed in a pot. 

But of course, none of that matters if he can’t stay on his feet against Grant Dawson. This is a classic wrestler vs. striker matchup, and the last time King Green faced such a matchup, Islam Makhachev choked him out in just over three minutes. The key for Green will be not giving up his back against the cage or when getting back to his feet. Dawson has an Aljo-like affinity for taking the back and will ride out entire rounds from the position while Patiently Waiting like 50 and Em for a submission opportunity to present itself. The third round will be the turning point if King Green can get it there. Against Ricky Glenn, Grant Dawson completely gassed in the third round and gave up a 10-8 that led to a draw after Grant dominated the first two rounds. A near-impossible task in MMA is wrestling for twenty-five minutes, but that will be Grant’s only path to victory not only in this fight but in all his fights. If Green can crack the Championship rounds, he will piece up Grant on the feet with superior technical ability and overwhelming volume.  

The numbers: King Green is 30-14 for his career with ten TKO/KOs and an under-the-radar noine subs. If I were in Green’s camp for this fight, we would be drilling D’arce/Anaconda chokes all day, erryday. Green is coming in off an arm-triangle submission of Tony Ferguson and a TKO/KO that wasn’t a TKO/KO of Jared Gordon after an illegal Lethwei headbutt led to the finish. Green is a high-output striker, averaging over six SLpM while stuffing seventy-five percent of takedowns for his career. Fantasy-wise, it will be hard for Green to attack with his usual volume, at least early, as Dawson will be looking to level change whenever Green engages. It will be tough going for Green early, but I think he has a shot at a finish if he can get to the Championship rounds. 

Grant Dawson is a human tumor, a cancerous growth that requires a surgical procedure to remove him when he takes you down. “I’m cancerous, so when I diss, you wouldn’t wanna answer this if you responded with a battle rap you wrote for Canibus.” Once he gets you to the mat, Grant becomes like a conjoined twin; you share a liver with this guy by the end of the fight. His top pressure is heavy; it’s like trying to get Lizzo off you, impossible. You can consider the round over as soon as Grant Dawson scores a takedown. There’s no hope of getting back to your feet. In his last bout against Damir Ismagulov, Grant had Ismagulov’s back for noinety percent of the fight and rode it to a dominant decision dub. At one point, Grant had Ismagulov in a Full Nelson from the back, humiliating Ismagulov like a bully waiting after school. The bad news for King Green is that I think Ismagulov is an overall better wrestler/grappler than Green (I hope I’m wrong), and he didn’t stand a chance. 

Back up, ya’ll! Back up! Back up while I get on my petty shit. Grant Dawson isn’t without his major malfunctions, the biggest being his striking. For starters, he has a weak striking base; his footwork is all over the place, and his hands drop to his waist whenever he engages with punches or kicks. The overhand to double leg is his go-to maneuver, and outside of that, he’s all wide, looping single punches. But he does have power that Green will have to respect. Tony Ferguson sat down Green in the first round with a looping lead overhand that was similar to how Grant throws hands. Bobby’s footwork and elusiveness have been a little off since the Gordon fight, and if he’s not careful or gets lazy, Grant can catch him with an errant heat rock. On top of his striking being bunk, Dawson has sus cardio. As I mentioned, he went straight Benjamin Button against Ricky Glenn, turning into a helpless infant on his back in the third round. That fight ended much like Merab vs. Ricky Simon ended, with Grant Dawson out on his feet at the sound of the final buzzer after being caught in a choke in the closing seconds. Grant came very close to being waved off after the buzzer.  

But Dawson is a finisher. For his career, he is 20-1-1 with four TKO/KOs and thirteen subs, and eleven of those thirteen subs were rear-naked chokes. While he only averages three SLpM, he averages nearly four takedowns per fifteen minutes. This guy can rack up control time like Max Holloway racks up significant strikes. Dawson will be the (-400) heavy favorite, and King Green will be the (+300) dog. The play for Dawson is a submission finish, and this is one of the rare times I see value in a first-round stoppage. That hurt to type. This fight could look a lot like the Green vs. Makhachev fight; if Grant can get Green’s back within the first five minutes, it might be over. I also think there’s some long-shot value in a late Green TKO/KO. But he has to make Grant work; he has to make Grant exert effort trying to take him down and hold him on the mat. If he can make Grant work and get to round four... 

After the last main event, I was left with massive Randy Marsh blue huevos. It was another main event loss due to a freak injury, and the main event picks have gone 0-3-1 in the last four weeks. Lady Luck has been doing me dirty like a crazy ex. I’m main event dub broke. I’m dub bankrupt. I’m in dub debt and need to get on a payment plan. You already know where my heart is on this one... But as Herm Edwards once said, “Hello! You pick to win the fight!” My money will be on King Green, but my mouth is on Grant Dawson via rear naked choke, round three. Put it on wax, and please don’t make me repeat it.

Winner: Grant Dawson | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Joseph Pyfer (-424) vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (+325)

Pyfe Dogg: DK: $9.3k | Alhassan: DK: $6.9k

Jeepers Creepers, where did you get those peepers. Joseph Pyfer is an urban legend, a Jeepers Creepers boogie man with unsolved murders dating back decades attributed to his fighting acumen. He’s in the early stages of his career, like Jack De La Soul and Ian Garry after their debuts, when the sky appears not to be a limit but a launching pad. After two first-round finishes to start his UFC career, a trap fight could be in order. Abdul Razak Alhassan would be the number-one overall pick in an action figure draft in your driveway with the neighborhood kids. Some kids would offer up a Snake Eyes or Wolverine to move up for a chance to draft Alhassan. He looks the part of a scary savage and acts the part intermittently when he lets his hands go. If Alhassan throws the two-lane streaked chonies to the wind and comes out banging, he could halt the Joe Pyfer hype train like a stalled Matt Hughes truck.

Early indications suggest Joseph Pyfer is a deadly striker who can stand and bang with anyone in the middleweight division. I see him as the middleweight Jack Della Maddalena, with crispy boxing and overwhelming power. Fighters dissolve like Alka-Seltzer tablets when Pyfer lands his right hand. He completely wipes out their existence; he straight deletes their Wikipedia pages with one nasty overhand right. Pyfer is a Winter Soldier with precise, technical boxing and honed reactions when under fire. His hand guard is like Flex Seal, no leaks, and he capitalizes off his defense with slick counters. One of my favorite combinations in combat sports is the liver shot to the overhand, which is Pyfer’s special move. The liver shot brings the hands down, opening a six-lane highway to the head.

Cue up the meme of the guy in a yellow suit standing behind a tree rubbing his hands together.

Time to point out some flaws. The first red flag for Pyfer is that he is untested. He fought a condensed milk can in his debut and a Gerald Meerscheart who turned into one in his sophomore effort. And most of his fights read like Cliff Notes, mere summaries of fights because they end so quickly. What will happen when Pyfer gets caught in a rip current and dragged out to deep waters? He has some offensive wrestling stashed in his cargo pockets, but for the most part, Pyfer is a one-dimensional boxer. This might not be the fight to expose any holes in Pyfer’s game, but, like Ian Garry, I’m not fully buying him yet. I got Joseph Pyfer on Layaway at the customer service desk. 

For his career, Pyfer is 11-2 with eight TKO/KOs and two subs; he’s a finisher, and his value will be another early finish, as long as he doesn’t choose to slow-play the first round and look to dump Alhassan on the mat to burn some of his energy. Striking stats: His fights are so short it’s hard to get a read on his output over a full fifteen minutes. But Pyfer currently averages around three and a half strikes per minute and over one and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. 

Abdul Razak Alhassan is one of those Tale of Two Rounds fighters who has 5G hand speed in the first and AOL dail-up hand speed in the second. Your line stays busy for the rest of the fight like you’re downloading the new Chronic album on Limewire once the clock hits 5:01. Alhassan is built like Rashad Evans rolled around in mutant ooze; he’s built like Rocksteady and has power like he’s throwing cars and trucks at you in the cage. But Alhassan rarely commits to combinations and relies mostly on singular power shots. He only ever really commits to combos when he gets hit and subsequently reacts emotionally. Alhassan is one of those frustrating fighters who can KO anyone who stands across from him, but he lacks killer instinct. 

Alhassan's major malfunctions: His ground game and cardio. He has that Diane Feinstein guard on his back and gasses carrying in the groceries. The path to victory against Alhassan is making him wrestle early and volume on the feet late. Jacob Malkoun took down Alhassan eight times, Mounir Lazzez (a striker) took him down four times, and Joaquim Buckley took him down five times. His overall output on the feet is similar to Pyfer’s, around three and a half SLpM, and for his career, Alhassan is 12-5 with twelve TKO/KOs. When Alhassan wins, he finishes the fight; he has never won a fight that has gone the distance.  

Pyfer is the (-400) favorite, and Alhassan is the (+345) mangy dog. There is some distant value on Alhassan. There are still a lot of unknowns surrounding Pyfer, and you can’t argue with Alhassan’s finishing rate. If he decides to rub two sticks together and start a firefight, this fight could turn into a coin flip, especially in the opening minutes. The play for both fighters is a finish: A Pyfer TKO/KO will return (-175), and an Alhassan TKO/KO will return (+450). If you're into adrenaline gambling, this is another fight with a ton of value on a first-round stoppage. But I would play this straight up for a TKO/KO finish one way or the other. Joseph Pyfer via TKO, round two. Put that ish on wax.

Winner: Joseph Pyfer | Method: TKO Rd.2

Joaquin Buckley (-170) vs. Alex Morono (+140)

Buckley: DK: $8.7k | Morono: DK:$7.5k

My guilty pleasure is betting on Alex Morono fights. I look like Tony Montana with a mountain of nugs on my desk after betting on Alex Morono fights the last couple years. He’s the 007 of undercover savages. Golden Eye shit. This fight will be one of the biggest physique mismatches in the UFC’s history. Joaquin Buckley is built like Raph in the Megan Fox Ninja Turtle movies, and Alex Morono is built like a Geek Squad technician. Based on the visuals, this fight shouldn’t be sanctioned, but Morono is a chef specializing in serving patrons cuisine crafted from their own words. If Joaquin Buckley comes into this fight like Charlie Murphy and his homies taking the court against Prince and his band, he will get dunked on. And Alex Morono will levitate under the rim and say, “Game... blouses.” 

Morono is the sleeper of all sleepers. He has an excellent 12-5 UFC record and was the winner of five of his last six bouts. His only loss in that span was a fight against The Ponz, a fight Morono was completely dominating. Until he wasn’t. Morono was clearly on his way to a 30-27 short notice dub over Santiago Ponzinibio before Morono got caught with a bomb. It was a scary KO; Morono looked like he got disconnected from the server. His Apple watch sent out a distress signal to emergency responders. His OnStar called to check on him. But that’s old shit, and Morono rebounded with a second-round sub over Tim Means back in May. 

Morono is a sneaky good striker with a specialty submission, the guillotine choke, on the mat. Morono is one of the best at using the Russian bounce, staying on his toes and lightly bouncing like he’s skipping rope. Both feet leave the mat ever so briefly, and the bouncing style allows him to change cadences, implement false entries, and explode with power punches. Tyson Fury will intermittently use the Russian bounce, float like a butterfly, and all that. Morono’s lead leg is light like it’s filled with helium, and it floats effortlessly to the opponent’s head, making his striking multi-dimensional. Overall, Morono’s bouncy style just catches people off guard; they have a hard time telling when Morono will engage and get caught with shit they don’t see coming. This guy is good, and no matter how many fights he wins, everyone keeps sleeping on him. 

Joaquin Buckley is a combine fighter; he’s a physical specimen with highlight-reel athletic ability. If the UFC held a combine like the NFL, Buckley would probably own most of the records. He has Acme TNT in both hands and a unique way of leaping into strikes. It’s like he uses flying jabs, hooks and crosses. The flying Roy Jones lead hook is Buckley’s special move; he will jump from across the cage and take your head off with a single swipe. I’ve also noticed that Buckley uses the subtle boxing tactic of punching the opponent’s guard out of position. He punches the opponent's gloves or elbows, knocking them out of place and opening clean shots to the head. John Lineker has a famous KO in One FC using this tactic. It looks accidental, but it’s not. It’s guard manipulation. In addition to his hands, Buckley has heavy round kicks and multiple head kick KOs.  

The thing to keep an eye on is Buckley’s takedowns. I don’t think he ever plans to wrestle; it’s something that just happens. When he takes damage, he will react with a wild blitz or an open-field Bobby Boucher tackle. If Buckley gets out of pocket and shoots an “Oh shit” takedown at some point, Morono could snatch his neck. Buckley is 16-6 in his career with twelve TKO/KOs, with five coming in the UFC. He averages just over three and a half SLpM to Morono’s five and averages nearly one and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. The play for Buckley is a TKO/KO finish. I could see this fight going the distance, but Morono’s chin is a little iffy, especially after The Ponz fight.  

The odds are very low that Morono will be able to avoid Buckley’s power for a full fifteen minutes, and that’s why Buckley is the (-180 favorite). And Morono is the (+150) live dog. Morono can win this fight with superior footwork and a higher output. I think a decision favors the higher-output striker Morono, who could steal close rounds just by being the guy leading the dance more often. But Morono will have to take the scenic route to victory and out-strike Buckley for fifteen minutes as I don’t see him finishing Buckley... unless... Buckley shoots a lazy takedown. A Morono submission will return (+800), and a decision (+300). A Buckley TKO/KO will return (-105). This could be a put-my-money-where-my-mouf-isn't fight for me. I will play a Morono submission while picking Buckley to win. My reservations for Morono are that he struggles against big power punchers like Buckley. Joaquin Buckley via...Psyche! Alex Morono via guillotine choke, round three. On wax! 

Winner: Alex Morono | Method: Guillotine Choke Rd.3

Drew Dober (-450) vs. Ricky Glenn (+340)

Dober: DK: $9.5k | Glenn: DK: $6.7k

Rain Man is back. Roof mf, roof mf. The dog, Drew Dober, is back. This guy has a chin sculpted from the meteor that killed the dinosaurs. I know he got TKO’d in his last bout, but that was the culmination of a decade of eating bombs in the UFC. Weebles Wobble, but Drew Dobers don’t fall down. Dober is a cerebral power puncher who has quietly amassed an impressive UFC resume since his debut back in 2013. This fight against Ricky Glenn will be a little banger and far more competitive than the betting line suggests.  

The People’s Chin, Drew Dober, is a savage mother-shut-your-mouth. Like a ballerina wearing those little slippers, Dober stays on his toes. He doesn’t quite bounce like Alex Morono, but he travels along a similar spectrum. Instead of a steady bounce where his feet leave the canvas, Dober raises up on his toes as he works his way in and around the pocket. This creates inertia that he can transfer into his strikes, making them quicker to the target and more powerful. He looks like he just got out of the pool and is walking across the hot pavement. Dober is a southpaw with wrestler striking sans the wrestling. He uses basic 1s, 1-2s, and 2-3s and relies on his left hand to cover distance. There’s nothing intricate about his striking, but he has deceptive hand speed, attacks the body, and has sneaky power. He’s one of the few guys to ever finish Bobby Green on the feet.  

But Dober’s major malfunction is also one of his strengths. He’s a pyromaniac, a Johnny Storm who loves playing with fire. Every fight he wins, he first almost loses. Bobby Green pieced Dober up before Dober dropped Green in the second round. Rafael Alves also had Dober in trouble... so did Terrance McKinney. The list goes on and on. Dober exits the pocket passively, straight back with his chin high in the air, and tends to sustain a lot of damage in every fight. Also, Dober has that Stevie Wonder Part-Time Lover guard on his back. The closed guard is dead. Dober hasn’t received that memo. Ricky Glenn has good top control, and Dober can't afford to give away precious minutes on his back.  

“Slick” Ricky Glenn is back after he went up in a ball of flames in his last appearance. This is the guy who almost finished Grant Dawson in the third round. Some say he did finish Grant Dawson at the end of that fight. He dropped seventy points on Dawson in the third round, like the Miami Dolphins. After that fight, Glenn disappeared for two years, only to return last April for a minute and a half against Christos Giagos. Glenn reminds me of a cross between Max Griffin and Tim Means; he’s a grimy southpaw with long, straight punches on the feet and has a sneaky top game on the mat. As the Dawson fight proved, Glenn has that stray dog in him. He can survive on the streets out in the elements, eating out of Bucca di Bepo dumpsters and shitting on people’s lawns.  

The bad news for Glenn is that he didn’t look great in his return fight. I know it was only a minute and a half, but he looked slow. He looked like he had ankle weights on his hands. Which, of course, would make them hand weights. Overall, Glenn has been inconsistent since his debut in 2016. But I’ll say this: At first, I thought this was a terrible fight for Glenn. Why did his management do him like this? His managers must be Brittany Spears’s handlers. But, the more I think about it, Glenn can make this an ugly fight, especially if he can get Dober to the mat. Glenn is a grinder on the feet and mat and has a way of hanging around and outlasting opponents. Ricky is 22-7 in his career with thirteen TKO/KOs and three subs. I think a good play for Glenn is a late finish. Dober takes a ton of damage in every fight, and Glenn can chip away until he finally wears down Dober. 

Dober is the massive (-450) favorite, and Glenn is the (+340) live dog. Glenn averages four SLpM to Dober’s four and a half; he can keep up with Dober’s pace. Glenn has beaten good fighters like Gavin Tucker, Dennis Bermudez, and Joaquim Silva, and he damn near beat the guy fighting in the main event, Grant Dawson. A Dober TKO/KO will return (-175), and a sub (+1000). A Glenn TKO/KO will return (+900), and a sub (+1800). After taking Morono, I have to play this one straight up. Drew Dober via decision. On wax. 

Winner: Drew Dober | Method: Decision

Philipe Lins (+125) vs. Ion Cutelaba (-150)

Lins: DK: $7.9k | Cutelaba: DK:$8.3k

The Toyota Frontrunner SS with the Hemi, hood scoop, and racing stripes is back. Nobody turns dubs into L’s right before your eyes quicker than Ion Cutelaba. This guy has a residency at the MGM in Vegas, performing on a nightly basis. Cutelaba’s onstage assistant will be the souped-up Jake Collier, Philip Lins. This one is guaranteed to be ugly, like stag dates at the Prom. But the good news is, it shouldn’t last long.  

Ion Cutelaba’s career can be summed up in one fight. His fight against Glover Teixeira. Cutelaba all but finished Glover in the first round, only to turn around and immediately get submitted in the second. This guy is one of the most difficult fighters to bet on; he could go out and beat the champ on any given night or lose to the custodian (janitor if you wanna be a d**k about it) on any given night. On the feet, Cutelaba is a dangerous striker. He throws Thor hammers, nothing but overhands and hooks, and often catches better strikers underestimating him. And on the mat, Cutelaba has excellent wrestling with a full arsenal of takedowns, trips, doubles, singles, suplexes, and hip throws; you name it, Cutelaba has it. And once he gets you to the mat, he has heavy ground and pound. But then the second round happens, and Cutelaba’s wrestling shoes turn into well-thrown chanclas, and he goes from assailant to victim real quick.  

Philipe Lins looks like he scraps at family reunions. He’s the reigning, defending Thanksgiving Table and Fourth of July BBQ Champion, a Champ-Champ. This guy is a tall galoot with punches that travel from last week and looks like a less intimidating Hell Boy. Aka, Heck Boy. His punches look like he’s freestyle swimming, winging them ol’ Ryan Lochte overhands. His special move is wading into the pocket behind heavy two to three-punch combos and initiating the clinch, a clinch that is more like a warm embrace. Most importantly, Lins fights safe; his idea of taking a risk is eating Taco Bell after 3 p.m. When he actually lets his hands go, he has decent boxing and sneaky power. But he leaves too much dead air between engagements and fights like a two-hundred-five-pound Holly Holm: Punch, punch, clinch. Rinse and repeat. 

The Numbers: Philipe Lins is 17-5 with noine TKO/KOs and four subs, and he is riding a three-fight dub streak. Cutelaba is 17-9 with thirteen TKO/KOs and two subs and lost three of his last four but won his last bout against Tanner Boser. Cutelaba is the higher output striker, averaging over four and a half SLpM to Lins’s just over three and a half. But Cutelaba has added value in over four and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. I think both guys are finishing threats, Cutelaba in the first round and Lins beyond it. This is a tough fight to pick. I think Lins is actually a little underrated and might be a little difficult to takedown consistently. Also, Cutelaba fights within a strict window of time, whereas Lins has an entire fifteen minutes to work with. A Cutelaba TKO/KO will return (-105), and a sub (+1100). A Lins TKO/KO will return (+280), and a sub (+700). I’m going dog again. Philipe Lins via TKO, round three.

Winner: Philipe Lins | Method: TKO Rd.3

Bill Algeo (-145) vs. Alexander Hernandez (+120)

Algeo: DK: $8.4k | Hernandez: DK:$7.8k

If the fighters on my list of favorite fighters were all stranded on an island, it would look like the island of misfit toys. I like my fighters to have flaws, imperfections, and major malfunctions. I like dogs that win as much as they lose but are willing to risk losing every fight for the chance to win every fight. Names like Bobby Green, Billy Q., Alex Morono, and Alex Caceres come to mind. You can officially add “Oh-No Mr.” Bill Algeo to the list. Since his debut in the year of the toilet paper famine, Bill Algeo has won me over. Like everybody on that list, Algeo will fight anybody offered to him; it’s not just rhetoric. This fight against Alexander Hernandez might be the toughest of the many tough fights Algeo has had in the UFC. This should be a dope fight and one that I might be most excited to watch outside of the main event.  

Speaking of Alex Caceres, Bill Algeo reminds me of a gradient Bruce Leeroy. Bill is long as fook and uses a bladed Karate stance and nifty little side kicks. Algeo is Rex Kwon Do’s prized student; what the Karate Kid was to Mr. Miyagi, Algeo is to Rex. As soon as the bell rings and until the clock hits all zeros, Bill Algeo is a whirling dervish of flailing arms and legs; he throws every kick and punch he has ever learned. He looks like he’s reading the Mortal Kombat game booklet and trying out all the moves. Grappling, Algeo has that too. He has underrated grappling and stays as busy on the mat as he does on the feet. But most importantly, Algeo has that Call of the Wild dog in him. Since 2020, Algeo has fought seven times and has yet to be finished.  

In addition to averaging nearly six SLpM, Algeo will also be a finishing threat against Hernandez. Hernandez is a Bruce Willis fighter; when he dies, he dies hard. Hernandez can be broken, and Algeo has the style to survive and advance. Algeo is 17-7 for his career with four TKO/KOs and seven subs. I think his value is in a late submission finish set into motion by a voluminous attack on the feet. 

Alexander Hernandez is a classic box of chocolates fighter; you never know... yeah, you get it. This guy can look like a contender in one fight and a TLC scrub in another. He debuted with a forty-second KO of Beneil Dariush, following it up with a decision dub over the current PFL lightweight tournament champion, Olivier Aubin-Mercier. Hernandez is a wrestler striker without the wrestling, with lights-off power in his right hand and left hook. He has excellent hand speed and power, and for five minutes or so, Hernandez can stand with anyone in the division. But his major malfunction is his mental. Hernandez doesn’t bend; he breaks. He wears arm floaties in deep waters and can’t emergency float or tread water. He crumbles under pressure. Just when you get to trusting Alex Hernandez, he’ll let you down. Harsh but true. 

Hernandez is 14-6 for his career with six TKO/KOs and two subs and is coming in off a dub against the CEO of the Bridge of Death gatekeepers, “Earthworm” Jim Miller. I was actually surprised that Hernandez is the early (+115) dog, and Algeo is the (-130) favorite. Durability has to be the reason. Algeo comes with a lifetime warranty, while Hernandez has an “All Sales Are Final” buyer’s remorse warranty. Hernandez will have the more impactful, damaging strikes and can win this fight by landing the more consistent heavy shots on the way to a decision or TKO/KO finish. Algeo is far from a defensive fighter and tends to run into heavy shots throughout his fights. The recipe is there for a Hernandez victory, and he will be a valuable low/middle-tier Fantasy pick. He can land for volume and power. But I came here to talk shit and pick Bill Algeo. And I’m all outta shit to talk; for now. “Oh-No Mr.” Bill Algeo via rear-naked choke, round three. Put that ish on wax. 

Winner: Bill Algeo | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

Prelims

$7k Value Menu

Philipe Lins ($7.9k): You will be handcuffed (not in a freaky way, you savages) when it comes to the middle-tier $7k options this week. There are no high-output strikers or prominent finishers mixed into the lot; you’re gonna have to take some blind leaps of faith. Like Philipe Lins. Expect him to eat a couple of bombs and end up on his back right out the gate; he will have to mount a second and third-round comeback to pull this off or rack up any Fantasy stats. The good news is, after the first round, I think Cutelaba will have a hard time getting Lins to the mat, and Lins has some underrated hands on the feet. The key for Lins will be fighting like anybody other than Philipe Lins and avoiding his Linus blanket, the clinch. If he stays in the open mat, he can finish the 2023 Toyota Frontrunner SS, Ion Cutelaba.  

Alexander Hernandez ($7.8k): Alex Hernandez will be the best opportunity within the $7k range to pull off an upset. Even in a losing effort, Hernandez will likely see the final bell and rack up some solid striking stats along the way. He averages over four and a half SLpM and is coming in off a dub over Jim Miller, a fight in which Hernandez landed one hundred eight strikes. “Oh-No Mr.” Bill Algeo is a high energy/activity fighter who will push the pace, and Hernandez will have no problems keeping up. Also, Hernandez has big power in his hands, and he will have the best shot at scoring a finish within the $7k price range.  

Alex Morono ($7.5k): The final boss of all the Twenty Twen-Twen sleepers. I’ve put my kids through Junior College by betting on Alex Morono over the years, and I don’t plan to stop meow. Will he be at a massive power disadvantage? Check. Will he be at a massive size and overall athletic ability disadvantage? Check. Historically, does he struggle with big power punchers like Joaquin Buckley? Check. Do I give a fook? Hell no! If this fight goes the distance, there’s a good chance it will be the higher output striker Alex Morono getting his hand raised. He’s the far more technical and intricate striker and benefits from his opponents underestimating him, like Charlie Murphy and crew playing Prince and the band in a pick-up game. Also, Morono is extra handy with guillotine chokes, and Buckley tends to go through stretches when he identifies as a wrestler and forgets he’s a striker. If Buckley shoots an errant double leg, Morono will snatch that neck and mount his head above the fireplace.  

$6k Salvation Army Donations 

Bobby “Fookin” Green ($6.8k): $6.8k!? This is some dangerous dis, mis, and mal information. This is disrespectful to the King. Is this a bit of a homer pick? Yeah, for sure. Abdul Razak Alhassan will provide the best shot at a finish within the $6k clearance price range, but Green will have two extra rounds to work with if he can avoid giving up his back in the first ten or so minutes. If there comes a point when Grant Dawson slows down and the takedown well dries up, Bobby Green will make up for lost time with crispy combination striking. Bobby Green can steal this fight, but he has to survive and advance early. Also, he needs to learn from the Makhachev fight: He can’t be hypersensitive to Dawson’s takedowns to the point that Bobby doesn’t let his hands go. Bobby will end up on his back; it’s a given. But he needs to make Dawson pay when he closes the distance. Up-the-middle strikes (knees and uppercuts) will be crucial for King Green. All hail King Green!  

Twenty-Twen-Twen Sleepers

Alexander Hernandez (+120): I’ve watched Hernandez drop from (+115) to around (+120) in the last couple of days. I thought the opposite would be true, and he would move closer to even money. Get him while you can. He has what Algeo severely lacks, power. And Algeo is very hittable. Very. This is a power mismatch, and Hernandez’s UFC resume is far more impressive than Algeo’s. Remember: This guy KO’d Beneil Dariush in under a minute in Hernandez’s debut.  

Alex Morono (+140): There is something about going into a fight thinking you’re fighting some dweeb who spends his day at Walmart playing the PS5 display and then finding yourself at the wrong end of an ass-whoopin’. If you saw these guys square up in the street, you would pull out your phone and dial 9-1... and hover your finger over the second 1 in anticipation of Alex Morono getting slept on the asphalt. I’ve seen it happen time and time again: A fighter sleeps on Morono, and when they start getting pieced up, they press the action. It's like getting stuck in quicksand; the more you struggle, the deeper you sink. The more you press to kick this dweeb’s ass, the more you find yourself eating hands and feets. The key stat for Morono is seven, as in seven subs. His submission game is the most underrated part of the most underrated fighter’s game.  

Pick 'Em

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-165) vs. Diana Belbita (+130) 

Winner: Karolina Kowalkiewicz 

Method: Decision 

Aoriqileng (-110) vs. Johnny Munoz Jr. (-110) 

Winner: Aoriqileng 

Method: Decision 

Vanessa Demopoulous (+255) vs. Kanako Murata (-325) 

Winner: Kanako Murata 

Method: Decision 

Nathan Maness (+200) vs. Mateus Mendonca (-250) 

Winner: Mateus Mendonca 

Method: TKO Rd.2 

Montana De La Rosa (-145) vs. J.J. Aldrich (+115) 

Winner: J.J. Aldrich 

Method: Decision 

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We'll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

About Me

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I've also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves.

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it's an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It's complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months' worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy.